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Hyliion Holdings Corp. HYLN Assuming Coverage 11.11.21
Hyliion Holdings Corp. HYLN Assuming Coverage 11.11.21
Valuaon
We reaffirm previous overweight rang, but we reduce our price target to $12 as we
apply a more conservave approach to valuaon. We value the company using a weighted
blended approach with relave valuaons using EV/Revenue (60%), EV/EBITDA (30%), and
a discounted cash flow (10%). We apply a 1x and 2x discounts to EV/Revenue and EV/
EBITDA respecvely, and we apply a 2% terminal growth rate and a 14% cost of capital in
our DCF.
Risks
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Contents
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................. 4
Product Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 6
TAM Review.............................................................................................................................................. 8
Financial Statements .............................................................................................................................. 10
Valuation ................................................................................................................................................ 13
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Executive Summary
We assume coverage of HYLN today with an Overweight Rating and a $12 price target. Hyliion is quickly
progressing to become a leading provider of electrified powertrain solutions for Class 8 commercial
vehicles, with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, at the lowest total cost of ownership
(TCO), and without sacrificing performance. Its solutions are being developed to practically achieve these
objectives today, while having the flexibility to adapt to the rapidly changing landscape for long-haul
commercial vehicles.
Our Thoughts and Investment Thesis: We are assuming coverage of HYLN today (previously covered by
Josh Cohen) with an Overweight Rating (unchanged) and establishing a new $12 price target. Hyliion
shares were weak today due to this given the 3Q21 update. That said, we view this as a transitory issue
which is unlikely to negatively impact HYLN’s long-term monetization ability – which is a key driver of
value. We continue to like HYLN given its visible path to commercialization and its early-mover advantage.
The company’s tactical and economical product offerings, which enjoy a robust re-fueling infrastructure
already in place, don’t currently have much competition elsewhere. Additionally, recall that in the HYLN
initiation, Cantor previously calculated a total addressable market (“TAM”) for the company’s Hybrid
solution of $44B in the US, and $246B globally (not an annual TAM, as the Hybrid solution targets
retrofitting existing Class 8 commercial vehicles). For both TAM calculations we exclude Class 8 vehicles
that are not semi-tractor trailers, as Hyliion’s solutions are not suitable for these types of vehicles.
Separately, we reaffirm the previously calculated TAM for the Hypertruck ERX at $17B/yr in the US, and
$94B/yr globally (calculation is based on new Class 8 commercial trucks sold each year). We believe that
with good execution, HYLN can capture a significant market share here.
Supply Chain shortages are causing delays: Management noted that global supply chain disruptions
(shortage of semiconductors) are causing longer lead-times for deliveries and have delayed some
deliveries into early 2022. The company also mentioned that they have already placed orders for all
vehicles needed in 2022 and are currently working to secure build slots for 2023.
Earning Highlights: The company reported 3Q21 cash and cash equivalents of $289.5M (vs. $317.7M in
Q2). This includes ST investments of $144.5M and LT investments of $155M. HYLN now has > $588M to
fund its current commercialization plans for its powertrains (vs. $617M in Q2). OPEX Guidance Lowered.
Hyliion lowered its FY21 operating expenses guidance to $110M-$120M (vs. prior $130M - $140M) due
to delays in the timing of truck purchases.
Hybrid EX Update. HYLN announced that it recently delivered its first Hybrid eX system to Werner
Enterprises. Recall that Hyliion officially launched its commercial Hybrid eX powertrain solution on
8/31/21 and expects to begin recognizing revenue in 4Q21.
Hypertruck ERX Timeline – end of 2022. HYLN is kicking off the Hypertruck ERX roadshow today and will
be executing ride-along events in Dec. HYLN expects to complete design verification and start on-road
testing in 1H22, and to begin winter testing and controlled fleet vehicle deployments in 2H22.
Secured a new 40-unit reservation. The company announced today that they have secured a 40-unit
reservation for the Hypertruck ERX from Mone Transport, (a carrier company in Texas). The purchase and
sale of the 40 Hypertruck ERX units is still subject to final agreement. Additionally, the company also
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announced a partnership with GreenPath Logistics (located in Dallas, TX) to begin initial deployments of
controlled fleet trials in their operations.
Valuation: We reaffirm previous overweight rating, but we reduce our price target to $12 as we apply a
more conservative approach to valuation. We value the company using a weighted blended approach
with relative valuations using EV/Revenue (60%), EV/EBITDA (30%), and a discounted cash flow (10%). We
apply a 1x and 2x discounts to EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA respectively, and we apply a 2% terminal
growth rate and a 14% cost of capital in our DCF.
Exhibit 1: Valuation
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Product Overview
Hybrid eX: Hyliion’s Hybrid solution is ideal for Class 8 commercial vehicles, in our opinion, and is
compatible with both diesel and natural gas engines. This solution retrofits the vehicle with an electrified
powertrain system in order to reduce operating costs, decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and
improve vehicle performance. The system utilizes a battery which is charged by regenerative braking and
downhill deceleration, and discharged to provide additional horsepower and torque, thereby reducing
fuel usage and related GHG emissions. The incremental horsepower and torque become especially
important to existing natural gas-powered commercial vehicles, which can struggle with heavy loads and
steep inclines. The Hybrid system’s battery pack can also be utilized as an auxiliary power unit to supply
electricity for in-cab devices and air conditions, which helps to reduce or eliminate idling. The Hybrid
system was designed to be brand and engine agnostic, can be installed on most Class 8 commercial
vehicles, and requires no additional driver training. The Hybrid solution is comprised of a proprietary
battery system, thermal management unit, and electric axle.
In August 2021, Hyliion unveiled the new and improved Hybrid eX. The installation process for the new
design was significantly streamlined by consolidating components into a larger battery box. The new
version also delivers over-the-air updates more efficiently as a result of improved software and cloud
connectivity. This will allow Hyliion to deliver the latest version of their software and performance
algorithms to customers. We believe Hyliion’s Hybrid eX solution represents an attractive option for fleet
operators to reduce operating costs and the carbon intensity of their fleets.
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Hypertruck ERX: Hyliion’s Hypertruck ERX solution is an electric powertrain system that builds on its
Hybrid solution, providing a larger version of its proprietary battery system, and with a focus on
integration into new vehicle builds. The system includes an electric generator powered by the customer’s
choice of fuel, its primary electric traction drive system, its software management suite, and CoPilot in-
cab driver display. The system works by pairing the fully electric powertrain with its battery system, which
is recharged by an onboard generator, with a focus on natural gas as a source of fuel. This system fully
replaces the traditional powertrain in Class 8 commercial vehicles. Like the Hybrid solution, the Hypertruck
ERX is being designed for installation on most major Class 8 commercial vehicles, and aims to reduce
operating costs, decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and improve vehicle performance. Its
Hypertruck ERX system will initially be used in conjunction with natural gas, including both compressed
natural gas (CNG) and renewable natural gas (RNG), leveraging around 700 geographically-dispersed
public fueling stations for Class 8 commercial vehicles across the United States, and providing sufficient
infrastructure for long-haul trucking today. Customers interested in utilizing a source of fuel with a
negative carbon intensity will have the ability to utilize RNG, which is a widely available growing source of
fuel. Hyliion is also designing its Hypertruck ERX solution to allow for the use of any other available fuel
generator to recharge the battery system without needing to change any components of its electric
powertrain system. This includes hydrogen fuel cells, microturbines, and diesel or gasoline generators.
This flexibility should enable it to effectively adapt to the energy transition as it occurs within commercial
vehicles, reducing the uncertainty around commodity prices, fuel source availability, customer
preferences, and/or regulatory agendas.
HYLN’s in-house battery lab enables it to develop its own proprietary battery systems, which is a central
component to its two powertrain systems. The company also intends to use these capabilities to develop
and sell its battery systems to customers for use in their own applications, such as lower class and specialty
commercial vehicles. Its batteries currently utilize a lithium-titanate-oxide (LTO) chemistry which has been
shown to recharge at a faster rate vs. other lithium-ion batteries. Its systems also utilize advanced thermal
management capabilities in order to increase life and cycle count. The company also expects to separately
sell its proprietary Battery Management System (BMS), which uses intelligence to monitor and balance
cells to maximize safety and performance. Its BMS has been designed with the flexibility to support all
lithium-ion chemistries and a wide range of system sizes (i.e., 12v to 800v).
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TAM Review
Hyliion’s market opportunity is very large, which is best represented by the TAM calculations below,
displayed in exhibit 5. The total addressable market (“TAM”) for the Hypertruck ERX is calculated at $17B
per year in the United States and $94B per year globally. For the Hypertruck ERX, the calculation is based
on Cantor’s calculation on new Class 8 commercial trucks sold each year given the system is being
positioned for new vehicle builds. For Hyliion’s Hybrid solution, the TAM is calculated at $44B for the
United States and $246B globally. Keep in mind that this is not an annual TAM, as the Hybrid solution is
being positioned for retrofitting existing Class 8 commercial vehicles.
For both TAM calculations Class 8 vehicles that are not semi-tractor trailers are excluded, as Hyliion’s
solutions are not suitable for these types of vehicles. It is also important to note that the Class 8
commercial vehicle population is expected to grow 4.5% annually from 2020 to 2024(from Act Research),
representing a growing opportunity for Hyliion.
Exhibit 5: Cantor’s TAM Estimates
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RNG Infrastructure
The existing infrastructure for natural gas fueling is robust, providing an immediate advantage vs. battery
electronic vehicles (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell electronic vehicles (FCEV), eliminating the time, cost, and
uncertainty in building out these respective fueling infrastructures. The United States Department of
Energy reported almost 1,600 compressed natural gas (CNG) fueling stations in the United States as of the
end of 2019. Importantly, this mature fueling infrastructure can also be utilized to supply renewable
natural gas (RNG), enabling fleet operators to increase their utilization of RNG as supply continues to
grow. This compares to only 61 hydrogen fueling stations and no record of electric charging stations for
Class 8 commercial vehicles. In exhibit 6, we show the broad and mature fueling infrastructure for
CNG/RNG vs a modest and concentrated fueling infrastructure for hydrogen in exhibit 7. In addition, the
transmission infrastructure for natural gas (i.e., pipelines) is also very mature vs. an almost nonexistent
transmission infrastructure for hydrogen. While the infrastructure for hydrogen is still in its infancy, there
is still potential for it to command a meaningful share of the future long-haul mobility market, which is
why Hyliion is designing its solutions to be fuel agnostic. We believe this not only positions Hyliion’s
solution to be an ideal near-term solution, but also an effective long-term solution that can flexibly change
with technological innovation and customer preference.
Exhibit 6: Public Fueling Stations – CNG/RNG Exhibit 7: Public Fueling Stations - Hydrogen
Source: Source:
https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/natural_gas_locations.html#/ https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/natural_gas_locations.html#/find/n
earest?fuel=HY
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Financial Statements
Income Statement
Hyliion (HYLN) 2019 2020 2021E Full Year
$ Millions 2019 2020 1Q21A 2Q21A 3Q21A 4Q21E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Net Revenues 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 2.0 60.0 500.0 1,000.0 1,600.0
Guidance 1 8 344 1019 2091
Cost of Revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.2 54.0 375.0 700.0 1,040.0
Gross Profit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.2) (0.2) 6.0 125.0 300.0 560.0
Gross Margin na na na na 0% -10% -10% 10% 25% 30% 35%
Operating Expenses:
Research and Development 9.3 12.6 9.3 13.4 18.2 30.0 70.9 120.0 122.0 124.0 126.0
Selling, General, and Administrative 2.7 9.6 7.4 10.1 8.7 8.7 34.8 50.0 54.0 58.0 63.0
Extraordinary 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Expenses (GAAP) 12.0 22.2 16.7 23 26.810 38.7 105.6 170.0 176.0 182.0 189.0
Core Expenses 12.0 22.2 16.7 23.4 26.8 38.7 105.6 170.0 176.0 182.0 189.0
Guidance 130-140
Operating Income (GAAP) (12.0) (22.2) (16.7) (23.441) (26.8) (38.9) (105.8) (164.0) (51.0) 118.0 371.0
Core Operating Income (12.0) (22.2) (16.7) (23.441) (26.8) (38.9) (105.8) (164.0) (51.0) 118.0 371.0
Core EBITDA (inc. SBC) (11.0) (21.3) (16.5) (23.230) (26.6) (38.1) (104.4) (154.0) (36.0) #REF! #REF!
Core EBITDA Margin na na na na na na na na -7% #REF! #REF!
Adjusted Core EBITDA (ex. SBC) (12.0) (22.2) (15.0) (21.313) (26.0) (37.6) (99.9) (147.5) (27.5) 149.5 410.5
Adjusted Core EBITDA Margin na na na na na na na na -5% 15% 26%
Financial Income (Expense) (3.3) (5.5) 0.2 0.20 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Other Income (Expense) 1.1 351.8 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pre-Tax Income (GAAP) (14.1) 324.1 (16.6) (23.244) (26.615) (38.9) (105.3) (163.4) (50.4) 118.6 371.6
Tax Expense (Benefit) 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 85
Tax Rate 0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23%
Net Income (GAAP) (14.1) 324.1 (16.6) (23.2) (26.615) (38.9) (105.3) (163.4) (50.4) 118.6 286.1
Core Net Income (15.3) (27.6) (16.6) (23.2) (26.615) (38.9) (105.3) (163.4) (50.4) 118.6 286.1
Diluted EPS (GAAP) -$0.16 $2.93 -$0.10 -$0.13 -$0.15 -$0.22 -$0.61 -$0.92 -$0.28 $0.63 $1.48
Core Diluted EPS -$0.18 -$0.25 -$0.10 -$0.13 -$0.15 -$0.22 -$0.61 -$0.92 -$0.28 $0.63 $1.48
Weighted Avg Diluted Shares 87 111 170 172 173 174 173 178 183 188 193
Share Increase 24 1 2 1 1 62 5 5 5 5
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Balance Sheet
Hyliion (HYLN) 2019A 2020A 2021E Full Year
$ Millions 2019A 2020A 1Q21A 2Q21A 3Q21A 4Q21E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Assets
Cash and Equivalents 6 390 335 318 289 226 226 86 (21) 31 214
Accounting Receivables 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 15 115 235 395
Prepaid Expenses and Other 0 21 4 4 6 7 7 5 6 9 14
Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 6 32 72 128
Short-Term Investments 0 202 145 140 144 144 144 144 144 144 144
Total Current Assets 7 612 483 462 440 379 379 256 276 491 895
Common Stock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Additional Paid-In Capital 31 365 371 373 374 382 382 418 457 498 543
Accumulated Deficit/Retained Earnings (49) 275 259 235 209 170 170 6 (44) 75 361
Total Shareholders Equity (18) 640 630 609 583 552 552 425 413 573 904
Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 14 655 642 632 607 578 578 465 500 735 1,164
Check $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1
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Working Capital:
Accounts Receivable (0) 0 0 (0) (0) (1) (1) (13) (100) (120) (160)
Prepaid Expenses & Other (0) (8) 1 4 (1) (1) 2 1 (1) (3) (6)
Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 (1) (1) (6) (26) (41) (56)
Other Assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts Payables (1) 1 0 6 (0) (0) 5 8 38 63 83
Accrued Expenses and Other (0) 6 3 (3) 1 2 3 5 7 9 11
Operating Lease Liabilities (1) (1) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 1 2 3 4
Total Non-Cash Adjustments 3 (347) 6 10 1 0 17 13 (56) (57) (83)
Cash From Operating Activities (11) (23) (11) (13) (26) (39) (89) (150) (107) 62 203
(50)
Cash Flow From Investing
Capital Expenditures (0) (0) (0) (1) (1) (3) (5) (20) (30) (40) (50)
Proceeds from Sale of P&E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Purchase of Investments 0 (238) (219) (20) (30) (30) (298) 0 0 0 0
Proceeds from sale of Investments 0 0 160 16 29 0 205 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 0 0 0
Cash Used in Investing Activities (0) (238) (60) (4) (2) (33) (99) (20) (30) (40) (50)
Net Change in Cash 5 383 (55) (17) (28) (64) (164) (140) (107) 52 183
Core Free Cash Flow (11) (23) (11) (14) (27) (42) (94) (170) (137) 22 153
Period-End Cash 6 390 335 318 290 226 226 86 (21) 31 214
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Valuation
Valuation. We reaffirm previous overweight rating, but we reduce our target price to $12 as we apply a
more conservative approach to valuation. We value the company using a weighted blended approach
with relative valuations using EV/Revenue (60%), EV/EBITDA (30%), and a discounted cash flow (10%). We
apply a 1x and 2x discounts to EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA respectively, and we apply a 2% terminal
growth rate and a 14% cost of capital in our DCF.
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Company Descripon
Hyliion Holdings (“Hyliion”) is working towards becoming a leading provider of electrified powertrain soluons within the Class 8
commercial vehicle industry, with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, at the lowest total cost of ownership (TCO).
The company’s soluons ulize its proprietary baery systems, fully integrated electric motors, control soware, and data analycs, to
either augment or fully replace tradional diesel and natural gas fueled powertrains. Hyliion’s Hybrid system can both retrofit exisng
in-service commercial vehicles and be installed during inial assembly, prior to entering fleet service. Its Hybrid System is currently being
tested with prospecve customers, having already accumulated millions of real-world miles with Class 8 commercial vehicles, providing
vast amounts of valuable data. The company’s Hypertruck ERX system is being posioned to replace the tradional powertrain in new
vehicles, offering Class 8 commercial vehicle owners and operators a net carbon negave electrified powertrain opon, when using
renewable natural gas (RNG). This soluon is currently under development, leveraging the operang data from its Hybrid system, with
vehicles under construcon for tesng and validaon.
Disclosures Appendix
Analyst Cerficaon
The analyst primarily responsible for this research report, and whose name appears on the front cover, cerfies that: (i) all of the views expressed in this
research report accurately reflects his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securies or issuers featured in this report; and (ii) no part
of any of the research analyst’s compensaon was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendaons or views expressed by the
research analyst in this report.
Legal Disclosures
Lead or Co-manager: Cantor Fitzgerald and/or its affiliates, has acted as lead or co-manager in a public offering of equity and/or debt securies for Hyliion
Holdings Corp. within the last 12 months
Investment banking (last 12 months): Cantor Fitzgerald and/or its affiliates has received compensaon for investment banking services in the last 12
months from Hyliion Holdings Corp..
Investment banking (next 3 months): Cantor Fitzgerald and/or its affiliates, expect to receive, or intend to seek, compensaon for investment banking
services within the next three months from all of the companies referenced within this report.
Cantor Fitzgerald and/or its affiliates is a market maker in Hyliion Holdings Corp..
Cantor Fitzgerald's rang system
Overweight/OW: We expect the stock’s total return to exceed 15% over the next 12 months. For the purpose of calculang the percentage of subject
companies within the Buy, Hold, and Sell categories for whom Cantor Fitzgerald has provided investment banking services within the previous 12 months,
an Overweight rang equates to a Buy rang.
Neutral/N: We expect the stock’s total return to be between -10% and 15% over the next 12 months. For the purpose of calculang the percentage of
subject companies within the Buy, Hold, and Sell categories for whom Cantor Fitzgerald has provided investment banking services within the previous 12
months, a Neutral rang equates to a Hold rang.
Underweight/UW: We expect the stock’s total return to fall below -10% over the next 12 months. For the purpose of calculang the percentage of subject
companies within the Buy, Hold, and Sell categories for whom Cantor Fitzgerald has provided investment banking services within the previous 12 months,
an Underweight rang equates to a Sell rang.
Not Covered/NC: Cantor Fitzgerald does not provide an investment opinion or does not provide research coverage on this stock.
Not Rated/NR: We are not currently carrying a rang on this stock. Rang and esmates are under review. The NR rang does not equate to an Overweight,
Neutral, or Underweight rang and thus is not counted in the calculaon of the percentage of subject companies within these three categories for whom
Cantor Fitzgerald has provided investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
Performance parameters should be interpreted flexibly as general guidelines relang to performance over a twelve-month period and are not intended to
be influenced by short-term share price volality. Performance in this context is evaluated in terms of total absolute return.
Total return is defined as the sum of (1) the percentage difference between the target price and the current price and (2) the expected dividend yield of
the stock.
Other Disclosures
This report is for informaonal purposes only and is based on publicly available data believed to be reliable, but no representaon is made that such data
are accurate or complete. Opinions and projecons contained herein reflect our opinion as of the date of this report and are subject to change. Pursuant
to Cantor Fitzgerald's policy, the author of this report does not own shares in any company he/she covers.
Cantor Fitzgerald and the Cantor Fitzgerald logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Cantor Fitzgerald Securies or its affiliates in the U.S. and
other countries. Other trademarks appearing herein are the property of their respecve owners. Neither Cantor Fitzgerald Securies nor its affiliates are
associated with or affiliated with such third pares.
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This material is being presented solely as instuonal communicaons and is not meant to be viewed as a complete fundamental analysis of any security.
This material may offer recommendaons and strategies which are shorter term in nature. If the material contains analysis, it may be narrowly focused, and
may be based either purely on quantave models or other unique factors such as market supply/demand factors surrounding potenal market moving
events. When making an investment decision this informaon should be viewed as just one factor in your investment decision process. Past performance
should not be taken as an indicaon or guarantee of future results.
Rating and Price Target History for: Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN) as of 11-09-2021
07/06/21 08/06/21
I:1:$17 NC:NA
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Q3 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Director of Equity Research Large Cap Pharma & Biopharma Medical Devices & Supplies
Michael Rietbrock Louise Chen Brandon Folkes, CFA
212-428-5934 212-915-1794 212-294-8081
Mike.Rietbrock@cantor.com Louise.Chen@cantor.com Brandon.Folkes@cantor.com
Joseph Downing
212-294-8016
Joseph.Downing@cantor.com