INVESTMENT

MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS (Chapter 17)

EQUITY VALUATION MODEL (Chapter 18)
FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS (Chapter 19)

CHAPTER 17 :
MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

A. MACROECONOMIC

Ekonomi makro
Mengukur kinerja ekonomi secara keseluruhan atau agregat
(struktur, kinerja, perilaku, dan pengambilan keputusan) (Investopedia)

Beberapa faktor fundamental ekonomi Negara Indonesia (Darmin Nst) sbb:

1. Tingkat kemiskinan
2. Tingkat pengangguran
3. Inflasi
4. Index ketahanan pangan
5. Gross domestic product
6. Suku Bunga
7. Defisit anggaran
8. Sentimen
9. Exchange rate (nilai tukar/kurs)

PENELITIAN TERDAHULU
 Suntichai Kotcharin, Sakkakom Maneenop (2018)
Judul : The Giant’s Pull : How Macroeconomic Condition in China Explain Leverage
Decisions in Thailand’s Shipping SMEs
Jurnal : The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics 34 (2018) 337-244

Metodology : Data panel

Penelitian pada Thailand non listing firms 2002 - 2016
Model persamaan :

Lit : Perubahan Leverage (Total Debt/Total Assets)

M : Macroeconomic
i : Perusahaan i
t : Waktu t
X : Jenis perusahaan
Alfa : Konstanta
Beta : Koefisien / eksposur

Variabel - variabel
Dependent variables
Debt ratio (DTA) : total debt / total assets
Long-term debt ratio (LTD) : long-term debt / total assets
Independent Variables
Macroeconomic variables
 Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU)
 China GDP growth
 Oil prices
 Freight rates
 Thailan GDP growth
 Interest rate
 Forex

Firm-specific variables
 Tangibility (TANG) : fixed assets / total assets
 Operating leverage : operating exp / total assets
 Firm size : natural logarithm of total assets
 Profitability : EBITDA/total assets
 Earning volatility : % change in operating income
 Growth : % change in total assets

Hasil Penelitian :
1. There is a strong relationship between China’s EPU and leverage of Thai shipping firms
2. Thai shipping firms to have a higher level of debt when EPU rises
3. China’s GDP has positive relationship with tanker’s firm leverage
4. However, relationship between China’s GDP and firm leverage decision is insignificant
5. There is no significant relationship between China’s EPU and leverage in tanker sector

B. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
Klasifikasi industri Perusahaan Tercatat
BEI
19 Januari 2021
Jumlah tercatat = 830 Industri
Sektor = 12 Sektor
1. A : Energy
2. B : Basic Material
3. C : Industrials
4. D : Consumer Non-Cyclicals
5. E : Consumer Cyclicals
6. F : Healthcare
7. G : Financials
8. H : Properties & Real Estate
9. I : Technology
10. J : Infrastructures
11. K : Transportation & Logistics
12. Z : Listed Investment Product
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/management/industry-analysis-methods/

Definition
Industry analysis merupakan market assessment tool yang digunakan untuk memahami dinamika
persaingan dari sebuah industry.

Contoh nya:
1. Demand-supply statistic
2. Degree of copetition
3. Competitors
4. Future prospects of technological changes
5. Credit system
6. Influence of external factor

Type of industry analysis

Three methods of performing industry analysis
1. Competitive forces model (Porter’s 5 models)
a. Competitive rivalry
b. Threat of potential new entrants, 
c. Bargaining power of buyers, 
d. Bargaining power of suppliers,
e. Threat of substitute goods and/or services.
2. Broad factor analysis (PEST Analysis / External Analysis)
a. Political
 International trade
 Government regulation
 Tax policy
 Employment laws
 Political risk
b. Economic
 Interest rate
 Forex
 Inflation
 GDP growth
c. Socio-demographic (social)
 Population growth
 Education level
 Health trend
 Nature and environment
 Age changes
d. Technology
 Reasearchand development (R&D) investment
 Scientific advantages
 Emerging technologies
 Diffusion of technologies
3. SWOT analysis
a. Strenghts
b. Weakness
c. Opportunities
d. Threats
Penulis : John D. Stowe, CFA
Thomas R. Robinson, CFA
Jeralt Pinto, CFA
Elaine Hendry, CFA

Di review oleh : Larry A. Lonis, CFA

DePaul University – Finance 526

Fungsi analisis industry (the uses of industry analysis)

1. Mengetahui kebutuhan investasi
a. Memahami bidang usaha industry dan lingkungannya
b. Mengidentifikasi peluang investasi modal aktif
c. Atribusi kinerja portofolio
2. Memahami klasifikasi industry.
Tiga pendekatan utama dalam klasifikasi industri
a. Produk dan/atau jasa
b. Sensitivitas business cycle
c. Kesamaan statistic
3. Sistem klasifikasi industry
a. Commercial industry
b. Global industry standard
c. Russell global sector
d. Benchmark
e. Government industrial classification system

Describing and Analyzing an Industry

Prinsip Analisa Industri
1. Mengukur kinerja industry dengan superior / inferior returns
2. Mengukur tingkat konsistensi, stabilitas, dan risiko overtime
3. Menentukan kriteria strategic group meliputi kompleksitas produk / jasa, distribusi, dan barrier
4. Memahami business cycle, long term growth, structure economic trends,
5. Supplier / customer bargaining forces meliputi, jumlah industry yang membeli produk, supply
substitutes, switching cost, ability to enter the industry
6. Tantangan baru, meliputi : ekonomi, group of complimentary industries,
7. Business-cycle analysis stage, meliputi:
a. Embryonic
b. Growth
c. Shake-out
d. Mature
e. Declining
 CHAPTER 18 :
EQUITY VALUATION MODELS

Penilaian nilai pasar/wajar ekuitas

ENTERPRICE VALUE (EV) = MARKET CAP + DEBT - CASH

Nilai saham:

1. Intrinsic value (Nilai Intrinsik)

PV dari laba dengan tingkat diskonto tertentu
Fungsi : menunjukkan potensi keuntungan investor, beli atau tidak, pakai diskon atau tidak

Jenis nilai intrinsic saham :

a. Over Valued  Harga pasar > nilai intrinsik
b. Under Valued Harga pasar < nilai intrinsik
c. Fair Valued  Harga pasar/Nilai asli = nilai intrinsic

 Nilai Intrinsik = EPS X PER

EPS = Earning per share (laba per lembar saham)
PER = Price Earning Ratio

Price per share $ 49,71

Common share ots billion 7,86
Market Cap. $ billion 390,72

Financial Highlights
Sales $ billion 86,90
EBITDA $ billion 29,20
Net Income $ billion 10,50
Earning Per Share $ 1,34

Valuation
Price/Earning % 37,21
Price/Sales % 4,50

2. Market price
adalah harga yang ditetapkan oleh suatu perusahaan atau emiten terhadap surat kepemilikan
saham di perusahaan.
 CHAPTER 19 :
FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYISIS