Socio Economic

Fundamentals:
World to
Bangladesh

Syed Ferhat Anwar

Professor, IBA, University of Dhaka
All organizations and designers contributing to the aesthetics of this presentation by supplying various
motifs and designs
Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century, Asian Development bank

Government reports of various ministries

Harinder Kohli, Asia 2050: Realizing Asian Century, 2017.

International Monitory Fund Report on Global 2050

McKinsey Global Institute: The Future of Asia, 2019.

Philip Kotler. Activists and Reformers: Strategies for Advancing the Common Good. Mackenzie 2020.

Reports of Multilateral agencies 2018-2021

SDG report, 2020.

Strategic Marketing Management in Asia. Editors: Syed Saad Andaleeb & Khalid Hassan; Emerald Publishing.
2017.
Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Top Trends of Marketing in Asia, 2022: Asia Marketing Federation

World Economic Forum Report, January 2021

Syed Ferhat Anwar

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the
most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most
adaptable to change”
• CHARLES DARWIN | ENGLISH
NATURALIST AND GEOLOGIST
Global Geopolitical
Snapshot

Syed Ferhat Anwar

 Opportunity Pathway

GDP Per Intellectual

Investments Education Government Commodity Environmental
Capita Property
Debt Exports Regulation
Rights

Negative 1 % increase in 1 percentage point Negative Has strong Very positive role Initial cost factor
relationship investment increase in relationship positive both short term & is high but long
between income associated with secondary school between debt relationship at long term term positive in
level and GDP per 0.15% increase in enrolment is and growth and the initial phase social progress
higher inflation Stimulates
capita growth annual average associated with a and gradually index and
technological
real GDP/capita 0.05 percentage May also result lowers sustainability
Technology is the progress and
main tool to growth. point rise in real in financial entrepreneurship
catchup with Investment in GDP per capita vulnerability
developed infrastructure, growth.
economy energy, transport, A long term
technology to strategic option
increase
productivity.
 Global
Population
Prospect
 ❑Dynamic Population ❑Water scarcity and
Mega Global health disorder
❑Growing opportunity &
Trends Inequality ❑Rise of Individual
Choice and Fracturing
❑Mega Cities -
of the Mass Market
Urbanization
❑Increasing ❑Cultural Convergence
Connectedness ❑Higher quality
Decreasing Privacy dependence
❑Increasing Health and ❑The Pandemic world
life expectancy changer
HEADING: 2030 COVFEFE

Fifth
Industrial
Revolution
Human value
centric

Source: WEF

8
10
 Productive Business

Knowledge Business

Major Value Chain Business

Business Focus Competitive Business

2021-2100
Governance Business

Circular Business
10 features of world in
2050
World economy double in size

Asian Giants share of world GDP from 35% to 50%.

China largest economy in the world, around 20% of world GDP

India in second place and Indonesia in fourth place

Mexico larger than UK and Germany

EU27 share of world GDP down to less than 10%

Vietnam, Bangladesh, and India world’s fastest growing economies.

UK growth outpace average rate of EU27, Poland fastest growing in EU

Advanced economies continue to have higher average incomes

Opportunity, capability, and avoid reliance on natural resources

 10 largest economies: US, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Australia,
Spain and South Korea – G7 Plus 3

7 largest emerging economies: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia

and Turkey – Collectively E7

Global Outlook 3 Coverage G20: Argentina, Saudi Arabia and South Africa

2050
1 Key European Advanced Economy: The Netherlands

2 Fast Growing Medium Size Economies: Poland and Malaysia

9 Large Emerging Markets: Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, Iran, Nigeria,

Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam

Syed Ferhat Anwar

 Story Asia

Syed Ferhat Anwar

 Introduction: General
Globo-Asian Outlook

• Asia is the birthplace of all the world’s major

religions and hundreds of minor ones. All forms
of cultures have evolved from these religions; Asia is
considered the physical and philosophical place of
origin of civilization.

• Encyclopedia Britannica
THE ASIAN CENTURY AND IMPLICATIONS

1820 2001
In 1820 Asia’s income was 56% of world In 2001 Asia’s income was 31% of world
income income

In 2050 Asia’s income projected to reach

57% of world income
• The rise of emerging economies
In 1950 Asia’s income was 15% of world • the biggest shift in the global economy (and power)
income since the Industrial Revolution

1950 2050

SYED FERHAT ANWAR

Asian Resources Flow Strategic Guideline

High Regional (>50%)

Untapped Asia Led (trade,
opportunities (trade, people,
Share of intraregional

investment, knowledge, supply

flow in Asia flow

knowledge) chain)
Low Global (<50%)

Local Centered Global Dependence

(people, culture, (migration,
environment knowledge,
technology, MNC

Low (<30%) High (>30%)

Asia’s flow of global flow

Syed Ferhat Anwar
 Classification of Asia
Advanced Asia, provides significant capital and technology to its neighbors

China, large enough to stand on its own, a regional anchor and a connectivity and innovation platform

Emerging Asia, provides labor and long-term market growth potential,

and culturally diverse; and

Frontier Asia and India, accesses a broad base of trade partners and investors, and provides growth opportunities.

Syed Ferhat Anwar

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Syed Ferhat Anwar
Syed Ferhat Anwar Breakdown of the components of average real GDP growth (2016-2050)
Rank Country Average population growth p.a. Average real growth p.a. Average GDP growth p.a. (domestic currency)
1 Vietnam 0.5% 4.5% 5.0%
2 Bangladesh 0.6% 4.2% 4.8%
3 India 0.7% 4.0% 4.7%
4 Philippines 1.1% 3.2% 4.3%
5 Pakistan 1.4% 2.9% 4.3%
6 Nigeria 2.3% 1.9% 4.2%
7 Egypt 1.4% 2.7% 4.1%
8 South Africa 0.5% 3.2% 3.7%
9 Indonesia 0.6% 3.1% 3.7%
10 Malaysia 0.8% 2.7% 3.5%
11 Colombia 0.4% 2.9% 3.3%
12 Mexico 0.7% 2.5% 3.2%
13 China -0.1% 3.1% 3.0%
14 Turkey 0.5% 2.5% 3.0%
15 Saudi Arabia 1.1% 1.9% 3.0%
16 Iran 0.4% 2.5% 2.9%
17 Argentina 0.7% 2.2% 2.9%
18 Thailand -0.3% 2.9% 2.6%
19 Brazil 0.4% 2.2% 2.6%
20 Australia 1.0% 1.3% 2.3%
21 Poland -0.4% 2.5% 2.1%
22 Russia -0.3% 2.2% 1.9%
23 United Kingdom 0.4% 1.5% 1.9%
25 South Korea 0.0% 1.8% 1.8%
26 United States 0.5% 1.3% 1.8%
27 Canada 0.6% 1.2% 1.8%
28 Netherlands 0.1% 1.5% 1.6%
29 France 0.3% 1.3% 1.6%
30 Spain -0.1% 1.5% 1.4%
31 Germany -0.2% 1.5% 1.3%
32 Japan -0.5% 1.5% 1.0%
33 Italy -0.2% 1.2% 1.0%
Major Features of Asia
Five of the ten global dimensions show growth in
Asia – trade, capital, people, knowledge, transport

Three show decline – culture, natural resources,

environment

Two have little change – patent & intellectual

property rates, global shipping traffic

Syed Ferhat Anwar

Syed Ferhat Anwar
 Opportunities in
the Asian Century
for Local Firms
Syed Ferhat Anwar

Civilizations do not merely displace each other, discarding rivals’

ideas and substituting their own fully formed ideologies;
Asianization is like an additional layer of paint on an already
colorful canvas; it adds texture and hues.
Arnold Toynbee
1. Metaverse Technology
• We want to “live” in the Metaverse.
• The metaverse is a digital environment that is created much like virtual worlds in video games
today. However, it will exist as an immersive social environment, where people can meet,
interact and experience life digitally – without being constrained by physical space.
• We believe the metaverse will be the successor to the mobile internet. We’ll be able to feel
presence, like we’re right there with people, no matter how far apart or remote we are. As
media landscape further fragments, digital channels multiply.
• Consumers and providers are getting aggressively immersed in Avatars. The pandemic
expedited changes during humanity. Now all of us desire to “live” within the digital universe
to work, play, stay connected and enjoy anything from concerts to conferences to virtual trips
around the world.
• Metaverse is where multiple elements of technology, including virtual reality, augmented
reality and video amalgamates. It’s artificially real and are you ready for it?
2. Neuro-Linkage
• Chip technology, while not new, are becoming increasingly pervasive in our
society.
• Robotics and unmanned systems are now being explored for last-mile delivery, autonomous
vehicles (AV) may become the norm, and humans need to get used to interacting with AI. Looking
beyond, human augmented technologies to make humans function better may be the next
disruptive technology. Imagine
uploading any data and information you want onto a nano or microscopic chip, which is then
embedded into any human, animal or device.
• The recipient can then simply download the data and be equipped with the information and
knowledge with the sense of thoughts, or in this case –triggering the chip embedded in the body.
With a superchip using cutting edge technology, it aims to convert information obtained from
neurons into an
understandable binary code in order to achieve greater understanding of brain function and the
ability to stimulate these neurons back. This chip-brain computer interface may well be the future
on the way we learn and adapt.
3. DAO
(Decentralized Autonomous Organization)
• DAO makes decision of a non-central authority possible.
• Within the blockchain framework, every like-minded stranger of the community from
around the world participate in rules and making decisions autonomously all
encoded on a Blockchain without the interferences of a central authority provides
transparency, trust, and legitimacy to each transactions – – DAO makes this possible.
• Every DAO’s transaction and rules are recorded on a blockchain known as a smart
contract. Every single action to edit the rules are noticed and recorded because DAOs
are transparent and public. DAO has democratized organizations and transactions,
which makes it transparent, affordable and without a central governing body to
regulate, dominate or monopolize.
4. GameFi (Game Finance)
• The future of gaming - e-sports and new consumer culture, where gaming technology is
promoting social and economic engagement.
• The unique circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic have ushered in a new era in
gaming. Virtual, digital experiences are changing the way we connect to one another
in gaming worlds and is set to grow and develop even more in 2022.
• GameFi is a broad term referring to the trend of gamers earning cryptocurrency
through playing video games. Players make money through mechanisms like getting
financial tokens for winning battles, establishing kinship, and earning resources in
popular games such as Axie Infinity and Aavegotchi.
• Weaving and blending across multiple platforms, the GameFi ecosystem will be a big
force to reckon with in the gaming world and near future.
5. NFT and Digital Assets
• Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are the latest cryptocurrency phenomenon to go
mainstream.
• It can be anything from digital art collectibles to digital real estates, verifiable
assets that are easy to trade on the blockchain, usually on ETH or other ERC-20
tokens like WAX and Flow. NFTs are pieces of digital content linked to the block
chain.
• These digital assets cannot be replaced, are unique and not mutually
interchangeable, hence Non-fungible. NFTs are traded as straight sales, or sales
with loyalty fee for subsequent transactions posed by the genesis creator. NFTs
on blockchain is proof of work, proof of authenticity and proof of ownership.
• The next big trend in 2022 and beyond will be how NFTs will be the currency
and future of authenticity, ownership and assets
6. Space Tourism
• Space tourism hits an important milestone this year when the first batch of
tourists were sent to space, marking the beginning of commercialized
spaceflight and the dawn of space tourism.
• As space tourism expands and the costs continue to drop, mankind can look forward
to space travel, staying in travel pods and orbiting in space as part of our next travel
itinerary. Besides enjoying the thrill of weightlessness and marveling at the expansive
vistas, anyone who has gone to space is bound to return with a profound life-
changing experience.
• As private ventures continue to demonstrate the viability of the near-Earth space
tourism businesses, space tourism is also set to create new job opportunities.
Beyond the core professions that include astronauts, rocket engineers, guides and
travel agents, new roles like food engineers, architects, space lawyers and doctors
may open fresh career opportunities for the new generation.
7. WEB3.0 - Trust Less
• WEB3.0 is the beacon of hope for preserving liberal democracy.
• WEB3.0 break the world free of monopolistic control. Its decentralized online
ecosystem based on the blockchain will never be owned by a central gatekeeper but
rather by the community of users who earn ownership stake by helping to develop
and maintain these services
• WEB1.0 was the era of decentralized, open protocols, in which most online activity
involved navigating to individual static webpages. WEB2.0, on the other hand is all
about centralization, everything from communication and commerce took place on
closed platform dominated by only a few super-powerful companies like Microsoft,
Google, Facebook and Amazon, where government control of such platform are
literally nonexistence.
• WEB3.0 respects your privacy and is fast moving from arbitrary authorities into a
much more rationally based liberal models.
8. Immersive Buy Journey
• Companies are investing millions in enhancing UI (User Interface) to understand,
induce and improve UX (User Experience).
• The synergistic convergence of cloud computing, deep machine learning, cybersecurity,
artificial intelligence, big data analytics, robotics, IoT, virtual reality, augmented reality, space
sensing, advanced connectivity like 5G, additive manufacturing and mobility will greatly
transform and multiple capabilities that will greatly impact every element of society.
• Green rooms and studios in shopping malls are changing the retail landscape and consumer
behavior, where shoppers can use green screen tech to try on merchandise, view holographic
messages and product information and much more. Experiencebased technology like
artificial intelligence, deep machine learning, augmented reality and virtual reality have
transformed, understood, processed and influenced buyer’s decision to induce completion of
the buy journey.
• This trend will continue in 2022 as online companies target to capture an even bigger slice of
the online market place.
9. 3rd Dimension Mobility
• Taking Mobility into the Third Dimension and the journey to autonomous flight.
• Many are now looking to the sky — the third dimension — for new kinds of mobility.
Autonomous flying vehicles, such as cargo drones and flying taxis, have the capacity to
disrupt how we move goods and passengers around urban space.
• Mobility in the third dimension is needed to solve two of the most pressing transportation
issues in cities today: increasing congestion as greater numbers of people move into urban
areas and sustainability. To meet the demands of modern living, and the aim of taking traffic
into the third dimension, transport connections must be more seamless.
• We need to make it easier for people living in rural areas to commute to work, to reduce
travel times within cities and deliver a superlative passenger experience. Vital supplies such
as medicine and food need an easier route to delivery. 3rd dimension mobility changes the
shape and nature of traffic in a congested world, delivering innovative and dynamic mobility
solutions to the smart cities of the future.
10. Generative Artificial Intelligence
• The ability to produce totally new product and new knowledge by using data
from deep ML and AI journey is known as Generative Artificial Intelligence.
• Such capability has grown ten fold since 2018. Its core capability in four key areas spell vast potential.
• Quasi life-like images and modes where it not only mimic human facial expressions, it display human
emotions.
• Sequence to sequence GAI give rise to the concept of real-time multilingual robotic response.
• Supported by hundreds of millions of images, GAI shave off value time and money at accurately
recognizing objectives and images based on deep learning algorithms.
• GAI pools disparate data points to generate artificial images that accurately resembles human face,
smart machine learning program that can train for handwriting and text sequences that resembles text
recognition produced by human hands. This technology translates to the future of digital passports -
where applied with smart facial, iris, voice recognition allowing travelers to move across borders and
countries seamlessly, safely and with efficiency
Syed Ferhat Anwar

BANGLADESH
ROAD MAP
 Table: Bengal Economy Post Partition of Indian Subcontinent
Revenue of Dhaka 18th Century ➢ 1 million Rupees
Global GDP Bengal Mughal Period 12%
Major Exports Pre 1757 Silk, Cotton, Saltpeter, Agriculture Produce
Deindustrialization Post 1757 Indigo farming starts
Major Manufacturing Pre-Partition Jute Goods, Tea, Paper, Leather
Financial Operations 1733-1922 More than 15 Banks
Agriculture Loan Offices 1865-1894 ➢ 9 Districts
Cash Corps 1757-1947 Indigo, Jute, Tea, Rice
Major Sea Port Since Time Calcutta and Chittagong
Airport & Air fields British Rule ➢ 20 Number
Bengali Renaissance 19th Century Cultural, Social, Intellectual, Artistic
Source: Amiya 1976, Om 2006, Indrajit 2011
 Table: Economic Status of Erstwhile Pakistan
Exports from East Pakistan 1960-71 70% of total
GDP Growth Prior to 1971 (average) 2.6%
Population 1971 55%
Major Exports 1947-71 Jute, Tea, Leather
Major Industry 1947-71 Jute Goods, Tea, Paper
Major Food Produce !947-71 Rice, Fish, Vegetable, Fruits
Major Fuel 1959- Gas
Income Disparity West:East (1950-71) 60:40 %
Major Entrepreneurs Prior to 1971 Ispahani, Adamjee, AK Khan
Employment in Government 1950-70 21%
Source: Lawrence 1988
 Bangladesh GDP - Historical Data
Year GDP Per Capita Growth Year GDP Per Capita Growth
1960 $4.27B $89 3.20% 1991 $30.96B $293 3.49%
1961 $4.82B $98 6.06% 1992 $31.71B $294 5.44%
1962 $5.08B $100 5.45% 1993 $33.17B $301 4.71%
1963 $5.32B $102 -0.46% 1994 $33.77B $300 3.89%
1964 $5.39B $100 10.95% 1995 $37.94B $329 5.12%
1965 $5.91B $107 1.61% 1996 $46.44B $395 4.52%
1966 $6.44B $113 2.57% 1997 $48.24B $401 4.49%
1967 $7.25B $123 -1.88% 1998 $49.98B $407 5.18%
1968 $7.48B $123 9.49% 1999 $51.27B $410 4.67%
1969 $8.47B $135 1.22% 2000 $53.37B $418 5.29%
1970 $8.99B $140 5.62% 2001 $53.99B $415 5.08%
1971 $8.75B $134 -5.48% 2002 $54.72B $413 3.83%
1972 $6.29B $94 -13.97% 2003 $60.16B $446 4.74%
1973 $8.09B $120 3.33% 2004 $65.11B $475 5.24%
1974 $12.51B $182 9.59% 2005 $69.44B $499 6.54%
1975 $19.45B $278 -4.09% 2006 $71.82B $510 6.67%
1976 $10.12B $141 5.66% 2007 $79.61B $558 7.06%
1977 $9.65B $131 2.67% 2008 $91.63B $635 6.01%
1978 $13.28B $176 7.07% 2009 $102.48B $702 5.05%
1979 $15.57B $201 4.80% 2010 $115.28B $781 5.57%
1980 $18.14B $228 0.82% 2011 $128.64B $862 6.46%
1981 $20.25B $248 7.23% 2012 $133.36B $883 6.52%
1982 $18.53B $221 2.13% 2013 $149.99B $982 6.01%
1983 $17.61B $204 3.88% 2014 $172.89B $1,119 6.06%
1984 $18.92B $214 4.80% 2015 $195.08B $1,248 6.55%
1985 $22.28B $245 3.34% 2016 $221.42B $1,402 7.11%
1986 $21.77B $234 4.17% 2017 $249.71B $1,564 7.28%
1987 $24.30B $254 3.77% 2018 $274.04B $1,698 7.86%
1988 $26.58B $271 2.42% 2019 $302.57B $1,856 8.15%
 $0
$500
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000

$1,000
$4.27B

1960
$4.82B

1961
$5.08B

1962
$5.32B

1963
$5.39B

1964
$5.91B

1965
$6.44B

1966
$7.25B

1967
$7.48B

1968
$8.47B

1969
$8.99B

1970
$8.75B

1971
$6.29B

1972
$8.09B

1973
$12.51B

1974
$19.45B

1975
$10.12B

1976
$9.65B

1977
$13.28B

1978
$15.57B

1979
$18.14B

1980
$20.25B

1981
$18.53B

1982
$17.61B

1983
$18.92B

1984
$22.28B

1985
$21.77B

1986
$24.30B

1987
$26.58B
1988
$28.78B
1989

Per Capita $31.60B

1990

$30.96B
1991

$31.71B
1992

$33.17B
1993

$33.77B
1994

$37.94B
Growth
1995

$46.44B
1996

$48.24B
1997

$49.98B
1998

$51.27B
1999

$53.37B
Bangladesh GDP Historical Data (1960-2021)

2000

$53.99B
2001

$54.72B
2002

$60.16B
2003

$65.11B
2004

$69.44B
2005

$71.82B
2006

$79.61B
2007

$91.63B
2008

$102.48B
2009

$115.28B
2010

$128.64B
2011

$133.36B
2012

$149.99B
2013

$172.89B
2014

$195.08B
2015

$221.42B
2016

$249.71B
2017

$274.04B
2018

$302.57B
2019

$318.13B
2020

$355.69B
2021
0.00%
5.00%

-5.00%
10.00%
15.00%

-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
Bangladesh: Economic Challenges

• Bangladesh remains
• Politically volatile
• Poor Global perception
• Difficult to do business (WB rating difficult)
• Land availability
• overpopulated, and
• inefficiently-governed nation (public & Private)
• Although more than half of GDP is generated through the service sector, 45% of
Bangladeshis are employed in the agriculture sector with rice as the single-most-
important product.
• In real terms Bangladesh's economy has reached 7+% and has been growing 6+% per
year since 1996 lower than predicted (every year)
Bangladesh: Population Challenge
Bangladesh is the most densely populated country in the top 10
 Table: Comparing Economic and Social Indicators of Bangladesh 2009-2021
Social Progress Human Development
GDP Growth Per Capita
Year GDP Index Prosperity Index Index
(%) Income
(SPI Value) (Value) (HDI Value)
2009 5.05% $102.48B $702 41.01 42.93 0.54
2010 5.57% $115.28B $781 43.21 43.45 0.56
2011 6.46% $128.64B $862 49.78 44.31 0.57
2012 6.52% $133.36B $883 50.42 45.03 0.58
2013 6.01% $149.99B $982 50.67 45.18 0.58
2014 6.06% $172.89B $1,119 50.83 45.27 0.58
2015 6.55% $195.08B $1,248 51.51 44.97 0.60
2016 7.11% $221.42B $1,402 52.08 44.92 0.61
2017 7.28% $249.71B $1,564 53.62 45.9 0.63
2018 7.86% $274.04B $1,698 53.05 46.7 0.64
2019 8.15% $302.57B $1,856 55.56 47.04 0.64
2020 3.51% $318.13B $2,064 55.23 46.91 0.65
2021 6.69% $355.69B $2,554 55.67 47.05 0.65
Source: World Bank and CIA Fact Book
 Table: Sectoral Composition and Growth Rate (1995-96 constant prices)
Year Agriculture Industry Services GDP
% Share Percent Annual Average % Share Percent Annual Average % Share Percent Annual Average Percent Annual Average
Growth Growth Growth Growth
1960 57.50 6.90 35.60
1971-1975 49.76 2.22 10.23 1.23 40.01 1.35 -2.12
1976-1980 43.75 1.98 10.88 3.93 43.64 4.31 3.62
1981-1985 31.60 2.68 11.59 5.47 49.20 4.27 3.81
1986-1990 28.99 2.18 12.80 5.24 50.31 3.64 3.56
1991-1995 26.92 1.73 14.33 8.17 49.63 4.68 4.65
1996-2000 24.52 4.89 15.91 5.67 49.99 5.59 5.34
2001-2005 22.66 2.86 16.44 7.64 51.19 6.13 5.71
2006-2010 20.37 5.05 18.20 7.92 51.78 5.82 6.07
2011-2015 16.45 3.30 17.87 9.06 53.59 5.86 6.32
2016-2019 14.08 3.94 28.11 12.13 57.81 6.72 7.52
2020 12.92 29.54 53.40 3.51
Source: Statistical Year Books 1980-2019, World Bank Reports 2005-2019, Bangladesh Five-Year Plans
 Table: Population indicators of Bangladesh 1901-2020
Factor/Year 1901 1972 1991 2001 2011 2020
Population (million) 24.7 67.6 112.2 124.4 150.6 167.6
Crude Birth Rate (birth per 1000) 38.2 46.6 34.6 27.18 21.00 17.71
Crude Death Rate (death per 1000) 31.9 19.2 10.17 6.90 5.75 5.51
Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live birth) 192.9 164.2 95.74 61.40 35.18 24.73
Life Expectancy (Years) 32 46.37 58.62 65.56 70.01 72.72
Health Care Spending’s ($/person) 0.4 1 4 8 23 50
Carbon dioxide Emission (per capita metric tons) No record 0.05 .14 .25 .42 .60

Source: World Bank and CIA Report

Figure: Global Health Security Index Variable Score Bangladesh 2019
Prevent
60

50

Overall 40 Detect
30

20

10

Risk Respond

Norms Health
SELECTED INDICATORS
Gross Domestic
Ease of doing business
Product (GDP) growth Cumulative Growth Inflation (June 2020):
(2020): 168th rank
rate (2020): 5.3% - 2nd (2009-2020): 1st rank 6.02%
rank

Logistic Performance
Foreign Direct Global Investment
Currency (August Index (2020): 3.54;
Investment (FDI, Climate (GIC, 2019):
2020): Taka 84.63 to $ 38th rank (worst in
2019): 82nd rank 42.5; 37th rank
South Asia)

Human Development
Global Competitive Good Country Index
Index (HDI, 2019):
Poverty: 12% Index (GCI, 2019): (GCI, 2019): 107th
0.614 (Medium
105th rank rank
category); 135th rank

SYED FERHAT ANWAR

Table 1: Top ten density destination by population size (December 2019)
Rank Country Population Density (pop/km2)
1 Bangladesh 166,014,626 1,153
2 Taiwan 23,588,932 652
3 South Korea 51,635,256 515
4 Rwanda 12,001,136 456
5 Netherlands 17,297,088 417
6 Haiti 11,112,945 411
7 India 1,343,204,757 409
8 Israel 8,987,445 407
9 Burundi 10,681,186 384
10 Belgium 11,454,906 375
Source: WorldAtlas.com

SYED FERHAT ANWAR

 • 2020 • 2100
Ranking 1. China: 1,394,015,977
1. India: 1,516,665,216

Bangladesh by 2. India: 1,325,349,639

2.
3.
China: 1,020,665,216
Nigeria: 793,942,316

population 3. United States of

4.
5.
United States of America: 447,483,156
DR Congo: 378,975,244
America: 329,484,123
2020-2100 4. Indonesia:
6.
7.
Pakistan: 351,942,931
Indonesia: 306,025,532
272,856,400 8. Tanzania: 303,831,815

5. Pakistan:233,431,156 9. Ethiopia: 249,529,919

10. Uganda: 213,758,214
6. Nigeria: 213,986,428
11. Egypt: 198,748,056
7. Brazil: 212,986,428 12. Niger: 192,186,560
13. Brazil: 190,423,052
8. Bangladesh:
14. Bangladesh: 173,548,665
162,532,538
Ranking Bangladesh by populous city 2020-
2100
2020
Tokyo (Japan): 37,405,975
Delhi (India): 30,018,582
Shanghai (China): 26,832,063
Sao Paolo (Brazil): 21,983,010
Mexico City (Mexico): 21,748,640
Dhaka (Bangladesh): 20,785,267
Syed Ferhat Anwar
• 2100
• Lagos (Nigeria): 88,344,661
• Kinshasa (DR Congo): 83,493,793
• Dar es Salam (Tanzania):
73,678,022
• Mumbai (India): 67,239,804
• Delhi: (India) 57,334,134
• Khartoum (Sudan): 56,594,472
• Niamey (Niger): 56,149,130
• Dhaka (Bangladesh): 54,249,845
 • 2020 • 2100

Ranking 1. United States of America: 20,807,269 1. India: 160,806

2. United States of America: 132,642,000

Bangladesh 2.
3.
China: 14,806,775
Japan: 4,910,580
3. China: 129,311,000
4. Nigeria: 69,472,000

by GDP 4.
5.
Germany: 3,780,553
United Kingdom: 2,638,296
5. Indonesia: 43,521,000
6. United Kingdom: 23,596,000
2020-2100 6.
7.
India: 2,592,583
France: 2,551,451
7. France: 22,416,000
8. Brazil: 21,495,000
8. Italy: 1,848,222 9. Japan: 21,396,000
9. Canada: 1,600,264 16. Canada: 16,234,000

40. Malaysia: 336,330 17. Pakistan: 16,101,000

41. Bangladesh: 317,768 18. Australia: 14,287,000

19. Italy: 13,754,000
42. South Africa: 282,588
20. Bangladesh: 13,504,000
43. Pakistan: 276,

Syed Ferhat Anwar

Ranking Bangladesh by SPI 2020

1. Norway 2. Denmark 3. Finland 13 Japan

92.73 92.11 91.89 90.14

20. United
28. United 48. Sri Lanka 114. Nepal
Kingdom
States 85.71 76.96 57.60
88.54

123.
117. India 141. Pakistan 163. South
Bangladesh
56.80 49.25 Sudan 31.06
55.23
Syed Ferhat Anwar
Heart of “South Asian Growth Center”
• It lies at the crossroads between the regions of East and Southeast Asia on the one hand, and
South Asia on the other.

Syed Ferhat Anwar

 Factor Driven – Least Developed – USD 504+
Global
Factor to Efficiency Driven – USD 1,670+
Competitive
Index Efficiency Driven – Middle Income – USD 2,420+

Parameters Efficiency to Innovation Driven – USD 6,000+

Oil Based Economies – USD 17,000+

Innovation Driven – Developed – USD 26,500+

 Countries that..

Compete based on FACTOR ENDOWMENTS

Sell Basic Products
PRICE competition
Low productivity, low wages
Room for MASSIVE Growth

FA C T O R D R I V E N

SFA
..focus shifts to QUALITY
of Products

Rising income levels

EFFICIENCY DRIVEN
Yo un g w o r k in g p o p ula t io n

SFA
 I N N O VAT I O N D R I V E N
Finally..

Compete based on N O V E LT Y

HIGH Standard of Living

High R&D and Innovation

Ageing Population

Little Growth Potential

SFA
Option for Bangladesh
to be Developed
• Be a Global Player
• Unique Global Positioning
• Be a Global Market
• Be a Global Producer
• Be a Global Service Provider

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA-NC

 Strategic option for Globalization

Go Global Create the ideal multimedia Status Quo

environment to attract world-class
companies to use markets as a hub

Enhance domestic Leapfrog into

productivity success in the
Information Age Create value from
Information Age
businesses

Catalyze a highly competitive cluster of

Lead Bangladesh IT companies that become world-
Focus
class over time
Regional Domestic
SFA
TOOLS FOR
STRATEGIC
INTERVENTION
 • The Dependency Explanation for How the Rich Exploit the Poor

Rich Poor Trade • As the diagram suggests, multinational corporations from rich countries set
up shop (invest) In Third world countries, usually with assistance from wealthy
Third World capitalists (the “core in the periphery”). Profits from the MNC
Exploitation operations in the periphery are then sent back to the home country leaving
the peripheral country not better (or even worse) off than before the
investment.
Purpose & Milestone for Being Global

2009–2021 2030 2050

Digital and IR4.0 Global SDG Governance and Innovation

Middle Income Developed Economy Bangladesh Delta Plan (water)

2024-2026 2041 2100

 Focus Focus Digital

Focus Focus 4IR

Mission 2021 Focus Focus Density Paradox

Focus Focus Global

Focus Focus Regional

Syed Ferhat Anwar

 • Moving out from LDC Status – 3 Criteria
• Gross National Income (GNI) per
capita has to be $1,230 or above.
Bangladesh's GNI per capita is now
$1,272
• Human Assets Index (HAI, an
indicator of nutrition, health, adult
literacy and secondary school
enrolment rate) must have a score

Mission of 66 or above. Bangladesh's score

is now 72.8, and
• Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI)

2024
a country's score has to be 32 or
below. Bangladesh's score is 25 in
the EVI, an indicator of natural and
trade-related shocks.
 Mission 2024 -
continued
• Must pass three reviews 2021, 2024, 2026 to be out of LDC.
• Graduation process begun.
• Once country out of LDC bloc, given three-year transition period and looses
• Duty-free and quota-free market access to the European Union under the
Everything but Arms initiative for LDCs
Strategic Options for LDC Graduation

• Tariff Structural Adjustments

• Export Market Expansion
• Export Product Basket Expansion
• Import Substitution Strategies
• Foreign Direct Investments
• Investments Abroad
• Bilateral and Trade Block
Negotiations
• Domestic Structural Adjustments
 Focus Focus Human Values

Focus Focus SDG

Focus Focus moving ZERO

Vision 2030
Focus Focus Governance

Focus Focus Last Mile

Focus Five Bottom Line

Focus •People
•Planet
•Prosperity
•Productivity
•Partnership

Syed Ferhat Anwar

SDG Status Example (2021)
Syed Ferhat Anwar

SDG Goals
(Reminder)
Vision 2041
• Focus Leadership
• Focus Coordination
• Citizen
• Government
• Academia
• Industry
• Focus Five Deliverables
• Future Ready Citizen
• Adaptive Population
• Competitive Nation
• Inclusive Growth
• Global Relevance
 2041 Model
Quadruple Helix for Bangladesh Mission Innovation 2041
(National Innovation Eco-System)

4 Actors
5 Deliverables

Mi41

Syed Ferhat Anwar

 Milestone
• Private Sector, Public Sector, and Development
2050: Sector Governance
• Research and Development agenda – Process to
Governance & Product Innovation
Innovation
Delta Plan 2100
• Focus Climate Change
• Focus Adaptive Delta Management
• Focus Water Resources Management
 Delta 2100 Outcome Model

DELTA 2100: Ensure Long Term delta issues associated with water & food
security, economic growth and environmental sustainability through robust ,
adaptive, and integrated strategies and equitable water governance
Institutional adjustments:
Delta Outcome:
1. Develop effective institution
Environment security Goals: 1. Ensure sustainable and
Higher Level Goals: and equitable governance for
integrated river systems and
1. Ensure water security and enhancement of value chain
1. Eradicate extreme poverty estuaries management
efficiency of water usage management
by 2030 2. Relief from floods and
2. Conserve and preserve 2. Ensure link with policy and
2. Middle income by 2021 climate change related
wetlands and ecosystems and implementation cycle
3. Higher income by 2041 disasters
promote their wise use 3. Initiating innovating to zero
3. Strengthen Blue Economy
security, accident, fatality,
from the ocean
emission, etc.
Syed Ferhat Anwar
 Education - STEAM (including Islamic Business) with IP
Food & FMCG - (Halal to Green and Blue)
Electronics & Nano Technology - (China plus & Productivity)
Pharmaceutical & Health - (Biotechnology, Nursing & Tech support)
Banking & Insurance - (Overall coverage – Financial hub)
Sector Engineering - (Innovation & learning center with JV)

Categories to Migration - (Inward white color & Research Collaboration)

Value Chain/Distribution Companies - (Collaborative & Wellbeing Focus)
Focus on Infrastructure – Dredging, railway, transportation & logistics
Blue Economy – IOC centric, Delta centric
Circular Economy – recycling, green, renewable
Tourism – Eco, health, sports, religious
Development – Social, peace keeping, economic, inclusive

Syed Ferhat Anwar

Special
Discussion on
Delta 2100
Shamsul Alam, Syed Ferhat
Anwar, Riaz Hamidullah
Blue Economy Prospect Hunting
 BDP 2100 Agenda Related to Water
Bangladesh Water Facts (1 of 11)
Dynamic Inland Water Management

• Flood & Climate Change management

• Wet land & Water Security management
• Transport & Cross Border management
• Tourism, Trade, Integrated River Systems management

Blue Economy

• Energy management
• Food Resources management
• Tourism & Trade management
• Global Value Chain management
Bangladesh Water Facts (2 of 11)
Precipitation Global Ranking: 10th
almost 2,700mm/year

Flood Plain: Two major rivers among

top ten
• Ganges 3rd average discharge 38,129 cubic
meter/second.
• Brahmaputra 9th average discharge 19,800 cubic
meter/second
Bangladesh
Water facts
(3 of 11)
Bangladesh
Water Facts
(4 of 11)
Bangladesh
Water Facts
(5 of 11)
 Bangladesh
Water Facts (6 • Submarine Cable
of 11) connectivity
Bangladesh
Water Facts
(7 of 11)
Bangladesh
Water Facts
(8 of 11)
Bangladesh
Water Facts
(9 of 11)
Bangladesh
Water Facts
(10 of 11)
Boarder
Review
 Largest Delta

Largest Mangrove Forest

Bangladesh
Density Dividend
Water Facts
(11 of 11) Unique in river connectivity for centuries

Shortest link to some land locked

territories
Prospect Under BDP
2100
Syed Ferhat Anwar
Policy & Legislation

• Governance
• Value Chain Plan
• Ground water recharging
• Legal parameter
• Policy guideline
• Public Private Partnership
• Financial Policy
• Environment & Community
• Cyber & Digital Framework
• Focus on all SDGs
• 4IR inclusion
Health & Ecology
• Health & Ecological Tourism market
size US$ 12 Billion. Growth 9%
• Eco parks: Parks in rivers, lakes and
Haor.
• Health clinics: Boat or floating.
• Rain harvesting
• Mineral clinics: Heavy metals has been
of interest for both Ganges and
Brahmaputra.
• Biologics and Health: Algae and other
nutrients.
• Focus on SDG 3 (health & wellbeing)
• 4IR inclusion example (Big data, IoT,
etc.)
Heritage, Religion & Culture
• 1.5 billion religious tourist/year. Three worth US$ 2000
billion growth 8%.
• Brahmaputra unique connectivity found nowhere in the
world. The Tsangoo, The Brahmaputra, and Yamuna: one
river, three names. It connects China (Tibet), India, and
Bangladesh: one river, three countries. It touches,
Buddhism, Hinduism, and Islam: one river, three faiths.
• Heritage sites: Dates to Paleozoic and Mesozoic era,
center for prehistoric research of earth formation, visit
sites grew along the water bodies.
• Focus on SDG 8 (Economy & Employment), 17
(partnership)
• 4IR inclusion example (Big Data, autonomous systems,
etc.)
Floating Community

• Housing, hospital, market, farm,

schools, hotel, power plant, etc.
• By region and specialization
• Protection and legal community
creation
• Focus on SDG 8 (decent work), 9
(Innovation), 11 (sustainable
community), 13 (climate)
• 4IR inclusion example (IoT, IoS, VR, etc.)
Flood Protection & Land
Reclamation

• 10,000 kilometers 178 rivers under BDP 2100. 470

KM under Bangladesh-India protocol. Plus new
land reclaimed in the bay may stretch to 30% of
present land mass
• Increase depth of rivers and decrease width of
rivers
• Create water storage and navigability capacity
• Protection from sea water salinity and land
reclamation from sea
• Focus on SDG 6 (clean water), SDG 9
(Infrastructure), 13 (Climate), 17 (Partnership)
• 4IR Inclusion example (Robotics, AI, Big Data, IoT,
etc.)
Entertainment & Sports
Global market US$ 60 billion growth 5%.

Bangladesh River Focus: All major rivers lead to Bangladesh

• Cruising: Ganges for cruising, rafting in the Ganges gorge along with Sundarbans,
Padma, and Haor of Sylhet.
• Racing: Racing sports using boats big in Ganges connecting Padma and Jamuna.
• Extreme sports: Brahmaputra since the topography is far more uneven and exciting.

Focus on SDG 3 (health) and 8 (Economy & Employment)

4IR Inclusion example (Robotics, VR, AI, etc.)

Business, Connectivity
& Energy

• River connectivity with India 1 ton/Km of cargo –

river Tk 1, rail Tk 2.5, road Tk 4.5
• River connectivity with NEI. 70% transaction with
Kolkata, implies, river connectivity better.
• Broad band Submarine cable via bay of Bengal to
NEI, Nepal, and Bhutan Km cost US$ 35-55,000/KM
under water. Over land US$ 90,000/KM
• Hydroelectric power micro and mega are old
concepts (1878). Floating power house.
• Focus on SDG 11 (sustainable cities), 17
(partnership)
• 4IR inclusion example (IoT, IoS, Block Chain, etc.)
Education
• Total outward remittance: US$ 8 billion plus with
growth of 8%
• Research: With global connectivity
• Energy alternatives
• Irrigation alternatives
• Drinking water facilities
• Food sufficiency
• Land reclamation & river management
• Tourism, etc.
• Education: Floating schools linking nations and
educating citizens.
• Inclusive all sector/subject education 2100 Plan
• Focus on SDG 6 (clean water), 14 (life under water)
• 4IR inclusion example (all)
Issues
Pertaining to
Building
Sustainable
Strategies
FUTURE OF
BUSINESS 1 OF 4

From a ‘social
Societal
contract’ to a
satisfaction and
‘societal capital
emancipation
market’

Moving towards
‘Sustainable
community
development’

Syed Ferhat Anwar

FUTURE OF
BUSINESS 2 OF 4
From ‘moral obligation’ or ‘risk
management’ function, to ‘value
management strategy’
The basis of value focuses on the
market

Markets are always futuristic –

sustainable model

Syed Ferhat Anwar

FUTURE OF
BUSINESS 3 OF 4
From localization of
markets to glocalization
of markets
From country specific to
Planet specific

Syed Ferhat Anwar

FUTURE OF
BUSINESS 4 OF 4
From profit focus to sustainability
focus
From followers to innovators

From labor intensive to

productivity maximization
From efficiency to zero tolerance

Syed Ferhat Anwar

SOCIAL
SUSTAINABILITY
PARADIGM

Focus is not on
Smart Technology
Driven City
Creation

But Rather On
Sustainable
Technology Aided
Society Creation

Syed Ferhat Anwar

 BOTTOM LINE FOR SOCIAL INNOVATION EFFICIENCY

Prosperity People Productivity Planet Partnership

Economic Social Efficiency Driven Environmental Value

Emancipation Emancipation Protection Maximization

Innovation Employee Human resources Water depletion Regional

investment governance efficiency Soil erosion integration
Government Access to health 4IR impact Environment Value chain
subsidies efficiency

Strategy to be developed linked to ‘Sustainable Development Goals’

Syed Ferhat Anwar

 • “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful,
committed citizens can change the world; indeed,
it's the only thing that ever has. “

Margaret Mead, US Cultural Anthropologist

Syed Ferhat Anwar