Methods of Risk Analysis

Course lecturer: Dr. Musamali

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Common Methods of Risk Analysis

1. Fault Tree Analysis

2. Event Tree Analysis
3. Hazop Analysis

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1. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)

 This is a graphical technique that provides a systematic

description of the combinations of possible occurrences in a
system, which can result into hazard.

 The hazard such as toxic release, explosion etc. is selected

as the Top Event.

 A fault tree is then constructed by relating the sequence of

events, which individually or in combination, could lead to
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the Top Event.
• A FTA is a deductive (top-down) approach that
graphically and logically represents events at a
lower level which can lead to a top undesirable
event.

• It is a tool that can systematically answer the

question of what can go wrong by identifying
failure scenarios.

• It is an excellent tool for analyzing complex

systems.

• Qualitative FTA is predominately a Safety tool. 4

In conducting a deductive FTA:

• An undesired event is usually defined

• The event is resolved into its immediate causes

• This resolution of events continues until basic causes

are identified.

• A logical diagram called a fault tree is then constructed

showing the logical event relationships.
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• A fault tree is composed of a complex of entities known
as “gates” that serve to permit or inhibit the passage of
fault logic up the tree.

• The gates show the relationships of events needed for

the occurrence of a “top” event.

• The “top” event is the output of the gate; the “lower”

events are the “inputs” to the gate.

• The gate symbol denotes the type of relationship of the

input events required for the output event.

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Why FTA is carried out?

i. To exhaustively identify the causes of a failure

ii. To identify weaknesses in a system

iii. To assess a proposed design for its reliability or safety

iv. To identify effects of human errors

v. To prioritize contributors to failure

vi. To identify effective upgrades to a system

vii. To quantify the failure probability and contributors

viii. To optimize tests and maintenances

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Steps to follow when drawing a Fault Tree
i. Define the undesired event (Top Event) to be analyzed
(the focus of the FTA)

ii. Define the boundary of the system (the scope of the

FTA)

iii. Define the basic causal (or contributing) events to be

considered (the resolution of the FTA)

iv. Construct the FT.

v. Evaluate the FT.

vi. Interpret and present the results. 8

Illustration of the Steps of a FTA

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A fault tree structure:

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Fault tree gates

• There are two basic types of fault tree gates, the OR-
gate and the AND-gate.

The OR-Gate:

• The OR-gate is used to show that the output event occurs

only if one or more of the input events occur. Or,

• There may be any number of input events to an OR-gate.

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The AND-Gate:

• The AND-gate is used to show that the output fault or

event occurs only if all the input faults occur.

• There may be any number of input faults to an AND-gate.

• In contrast to the OR-gate, causes can directly input an

AND-gate; that is, the input faults collectively represent the
cause of the output fault.
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 AND or OR combination of events are used- thereby
revealing the combinations of component failures that may
cause the hazard.

 By ascribing probabilities to each event the probability of a

Top Event can be calculated.

– This requires knowledge of probable failure rates.

 Probability of event:

 Add if it is an OR-gate

 Multiply if it is an AND-gate
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Notation

Events Gates
Designation Representation Designation Representation
Top
&
AND
Intermediate AND

Normal
or
Elementary OR
OR

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Illustration: OR-gate

Gate identifier

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Specific example of OR-gate

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Example of OR-Gate for Human Error

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Illustration: AND-gate

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Specific Example of an AND-Gate.

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Simple Fault Tree of Accident Due to Faulty Brake
Component

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Example of the combination of Gates (AND- and OR-
Gate Model).

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Class work Assignment: Attempt!

• Top event: Light does not operate

• Causes :Tube fails due to filament failure or bulb broken

and Bulb not energized

Derive a fault tree diagram for the above event

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Example: Fault Tree Diagram and Probability for a
Crush at Main Road Junction

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Benefits of FTA:
i. Provides a format for quantitative and qualitative
evaluation of a risk.
ii. Provides a visual description of system functions that
lead to undesired outcomes.
iii. Identifies failure potentials which may otherwise be
overlooked.
iv. Identifies design features that preclude occurrence of a
top level fault event.
v. Identifies manufacturing and processing faults.
vi. Determines where to place emphasis for further testing
and analysis.
vii. Useful in investigating accidents or problems resulting
from use of a complex system.

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End of lecture on Fault tree analysis

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