System Attributes

Overview
Resource Adequacy Subcommittee
RASC-2022-1
October 12, 2022
 Purpose
Purpose && Purpose: To share MISO’s issue framing and initial
KeyTakeaways
Key Takeaways hypotheses, and to invite stakeholder discussion
related to effective assessment of system attributes.

Key Takeaways:
• Resource transition is accelerating, resulting in some attributes
that used to come ‘for free’ possibly declining below needed levels
• Maintaining reliability through the transition will require:
• Understanding which attributes are at risk of becoming
scarce
• Determining the best means of getting those scarce
attributes (e.g., visibility, requirements, market products)
• Designing and implementing proposed solutions with a
resource-agnostic approach
• MISO will share an initial hypothesis of several priority attributes
with estimates of size and timing
• MISO welcomes stakeholder and industry input into refining these
recommendations and action plans

2
Situation Assessment: A more complex, less predictable
future is creating greater uncertainty for MISO’s region

• MISO Members and States continue to set ambitious decarbonization goals

• Policy drivers are also accelerating this transition and its risks
• The system is evolving toward a more complex, less predictable future
• Focus will evolve from providing energy in the worst peak load hour during
the summer to providing energy for the worst week in each season
• The region’s largest contingency is shifting to a high magnitude, long
duration loss of weather-dependent resource output
• During Winter Storm Uri, wind output was low for a 12-day period
across multiple regions
• MISO’s Regional Resource Assessment shows a growing long-term
resource adequacy risk
• RRA suggests that RIIA inflection points reflecting increased system
complexity will occur between 2027 and 2028

Entire System Attributes Workshop Presentation

 Greater understanding of system attributes to maintain
reliability in the MISO footprint is needed to determine near-
and long-term actions

How does capacity What does operations

translate to energy need visibility for to
adequacy with assurance of ensure good coordination
fuel availability at all times? and decision-making?
What signals and
requirements are being
provided to inform
In a variable resource-driven
long-term (investment)
What attributes are needed system, how much of each
and short-term
for Essential Reliability attribute will be needed to
(operational) decisions?
Services with an evolving manage reliability constraints
generation fleet? across timeframes?

4
 Clearly defining the system attribute problem statement will help
accelerate defining requirements

ISSUE IMPLICATIONS HYPOTHESIS

Understand attributes
New resources do not (type, magnitude and
The resource transition have the same timing) needed to provide
continues to accelerate in characteristics as those ongoing system reliability
the MISO region, they are replacing, and identify / implement
creating new risks to leading to the potential methodologies (e.g.,
reliability and market scarcity of attributes visibility, requirements,
efficiency needed to operate the or market products) that
system will ensure those
attributes are available

5
Multiple steps helped identify and prioritize attributes with
near-term risk of scarcity

Attribute Qualitative Illustrative

Initial Analysis Identification & Attribute Scarcity Quantitative
Scope Prioritization Analysis Estimation
When might a Identify attribute
shortfall of the requirements for
attribute occur? MISO to maintain 1-
And … what day-in-10-year
signals will inform reliability standard
Reliability Define inclusive list via Timing long-term
expert interviews, white investments? Focus on long-
papers, MISO duration energy,
experience ramp up and rapid
How likely is a
start attributes
shortfall to occur?

Prioritize Probability If a shortfall Start from

Affordability occurs, … production
attributes via
scarcity uncertainty
distribution
analysis How large is the
shortfall of this
attribute? Use method for
Size operational short-
term reserve (STR)
Sustainability requirement
How severe is the
impact of this
attribute’s Scale-up wind,
shortfall on the solar and load
Impact system? to Future 3

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INFORMED INITIAL HYPOTHESIS
Defining roles of reliability attributes within evolving system
dynamics will help clarify system needs independent of resources

Changing Dynamics Attribute Role

• Ensure capacity is an
Energy and required attribute distinct from
attributes will be energy
Capacity
available when capacity • Ensure capacity is accredited
exists based upon availability and
seasonality
Capacity of dispatchable Ensure availability of long-
Energy resources duration energy at high output,
Adequacy in addition to the availability of
Risks to fuel availability fuel when and where needed

Intermittent, weather- Ensure availability of energy to

Flexibility be provided on short notice
dependent generation

Risk of attribute Ensure continued ability to

Essential
scarcity due to meet NERC standards to
Reliability different technology maintain reliability / system
Services types performance

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While energy and capacity are given significant attention,
many critical attributes are required for reliable operations

Illustrative Attributes
Capacity Availability
Fuel assurance
Energy Adequacy
Long duration energy at high output
Voltage stability
Small signal stability This mode of planning is
Essential Reliability
Voltage control still new for the
Services
industry, so attributes
Regulation
are still being defined.
Contingency reserve
Ramp up capability This list is illustrative
(vs. exhaustive)
Ramp down capability
Flexibility Short minimum down time
Short minimum run time
Rapid start-up
Resilience Black start
System Protection Detection of short circuit fault

8 INFORMED INITIAL HYPOTHESIS

PRIVILEGED & CONFIDENTIAL – ATTORNEY WORK PRODUCT
Insights were gathered from interviews to provide
broadened perspective and potential solutions

Grid
Operators

• Local reliability attribute scarcity can,

and is, creating systemwide risks

• Mitigating near-term, dynamic risks

involves gaining better visibility and
understanding
Industry • Being timely with a good solution is
MISO Experts Research Partners
better than being perfect, but late
• Operations
• Market Design / R&D • Attributes are inherently inter-related
• Policy Studies
• Economic Planning

See appendix for white paper resources

LBL: Lawrence Berkeley National Labs

9 RAP: Regulatory Assistance Project INFORMED INITIAL HYPOTHESIS
EIRGrid: Ireland’s national electric grid operator
 Based on insights, MISO proposes six reliability attributes
as initial priorities

Availability

Capacity Long
Duration Fuel
Energy at Assurance
Energy High Output
Adequacy Priority
System
Attributes
Flexibility
Rapid Ramp Up
Start-Up Capability

Essential Reliability
Services Voltage
Stability

10 INFORMED INITIAL HYPOTHESIS

Requirement Analytics
 For this scenario, in 2022, supply is in balance with
requirements for reliability

2021
Required attributes are embedded in the resources used today, but those Installed Capacity

amounts provided will change as the generation fleet evolves 13

Attributes
Availability 30
Assessment
2022 (Future 3 2
2022 Attributes comparison to 11
Requirements Availability RRA survey)
Capacity (ICAP) 178 GW
52
Capacity (UCAP) 135 GW 140 GW
Long Duration
Energy 82GW 114GW
(intraweek) Nuclear
Flexibility: Ramp Wind
1GW 6GW
Up (10min)
Solar
Flexibility Rapid 79
Start + Ramp Up 5GW 27GW Miscellaneous
(1-hr) Coal
Attributes are available in sufficient quantities
Gas

12 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE TO MAINTAIN 1-IN-10 RELIABILITY

 Comparing Member announcements for resource additions
and retirements (RRA Survey) vs. future reliability requirements
(Future 3) reveals gaps in required capacity and reliability

attributes RRA Survey

Net Additions ICAP
• Further, the pace of change has accelerated since MISO Futures’ estimation. 68 GW
• For this future scenario, analysis below indicates that system dynamics require 1
similar multi-day energy needs and greater flexibility. Long duration resources 5 4
will have lower annual outputs, however. 19

Future 3
MISO comparison to
40 Gas
Mid-Term RRA inputs:
2022 Scenario: Attributes Wind
2022 Attributes Future 3 Availability Futures 3 Solar
Requirements Availability Requirements Assessment Net Additions ICAP
Battery
Capacity (ICAP) 178 GW 366 GW 246 GW
Other
Capacity (UCAP) 135 GW 140 GW 193 GW
Long Duration Energy 51
82GW 114GW 83 GW
(intraweek)
Flexibility: Ramp Up 114
1GW 6GW 5 GW
(10min) 35
Flexibility Rapid
5GW 27GW 28 GW
Start + Ramp Up (1-hr)
Assumes all qualified offline and online flexibility resources will 46
be held in reserve for short-term use Attributes are not available in sufficient quantities

13 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE TO MAINTAIN 1-IN-10 RELIABILITY

Based on MISO Future 3, year “2039”: Imminent Futures updates will accelerate the timing for this type of generation mix
Maintaining reliability through the transition will require
prioritizing efforts

We are here

3
Designing &
2 implementing Not all solutions require moving through all phases.
Determining proposed Timeline is highly dependent on solutions identified.
the best solutions
1 means of
Understanding acquiring
which scarce
attributes are attributes
at risk of
becoming
scarce

14
Contact Information
Jordan Bakke: jbakke@misoenergy.org
Zak Joundi: zjoundi@misoenergy.org
Appendix
 Links to References

• MISO – Renewable Integration Impact Analysis (RIIA)

• MISO – Markets of the Future
• MISO – Regional Resource Assessment (RRA) 2021
• MISO - Reliability Imperative Update 2022
• MISO – Short Term Reserves Primer
• PJM – Grid of the Future
• PJM – PJM's Evolving Resource Mix and System Reliability
• EirGRID - DS3 System Services: Portfolio Capability Analysis
• EirGRID – Shaping our Electricity Future RoadMap
• ERCOT – Energy Ancillary Services Co-Optimization
• New Ancillary Service Market for ERCOT
• CAISO – Flexible Capacity Needs Assessment
• Global Power Systems Transformation Consortium (GPST) - System Needs and Services for Systems with High IBR
Penetration
• Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) - Power System Requirements
• National Grid ESO – Operability Strategy Report
• California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) - 2020 Resource Adequacy Report
• DOE – Grid Modernization: Metrics Analysis for Flexibility
• NERC – Ensuring Energy Adequacy with Energy Constrained Resources
• NERC IBR Task Force Report

RIIA: Renewable Integration & Impact Assessment GPST: Global Power Systems Transformation Consortium RA: Resource Adequacy
ESIG: Energy Systems Integration Group NERC: North American Electric Power Reliability Corporation