2021 International Conference on Technology and Policy in Energy and Electric Power (ICT-PEP)

Regional Clustering for Developing Electricity

Systems in Archipelagic Area: A Case Study of
Maluku and Papua Islands
2021 International Conference on Technology and Policy in Energy and Electric Power (ICT-PEP) | 978-1-6654-1641-2/21/$31.00 ©2021 IEEE | DOI: 10.1109/ICT-PEP53949.2021.9601113

Tumiran Rachmawan Budiarto Sarjiya Lesnanto Multa Putranto

Department of Electrical and
Information Engineering
Universitas Gadjah Mada
Yogyakarta, Indonesia
tumiran@ugm.ac.id
Department of Nuclear
Engineering and
Engineering Physics
Universitas Gadjah Mada
Yogyakarta, Indonesia
rachmawan@ugm.ac.id
Department of Electrical
and Information
Engineering
Universitas Gadjah Mada
Yogyakarta, Indonesia
sarjiya@ugm.ac.id
Department of Electrical and
Information Engineering
Universitas Gadjah Mada
Yogyakarta, Indonesia
lesnanto@ugm.ac.id

Dintani Yudhitya Noorzakiah Naimah Abdan Hanifan Dharmasakya Adi Priyanto

Department of Nuclear Engineering Department of Electrical and System Planning Division
and Engineering Physics Information Engineering PT. PLN (Persero)
Universitas Gadjah Mada Universitas Gadjah Mada Jakarta, Indonesia
Yogyakarta, Indonesia Yogyakarta, Indonesia adi.priyanto@pln.co.id
dyn.naimah@gmail.com abdan.h@mail.ugm.ac.id

Abstract—Maluku and Papua islands have complex
geographical conditions, thousands of small islands, uneven
population densities, and lower income distribution compared
to other part of Indonesia. Therefore, the development of
electricity system cannot be performed by assuming that every
area has the same growth characteristics. In this study,
clustering is performed to group the areas with the same
characteristics. Hence, the development of electricity system can
be based on this clustering. This study used k-means clustering
algorithm to perform the clustering method. In this study there
are six clusters created based on the data such as, population,
average growth of population, Gross Regional Domestic
Product (GRDP), and average growth of GRDP. These six
clusters can be used as a reference for the development of
electricity system in Maluku and Papua Islands.
Keywords— region clustering, electricity system development,
k-means clustering
I. INTRODUCTION
Electricity has become a crucial part of daily life.
Furthermore, it can trigger the development of the economy.
Thus, a reliable and economical electricity is needed so the
economy can grow strongly.
Indonesia is an archipelago consisting of more than 17,000
islands with various geographical, social, and economic
conditions. Therefore, PT. PLN, as an electricity utility in
Indonesia, cannot immediately implement the development of
electricity system in all regions by the same manners. Hence,
the electrification ratio in each region is different. Based on
[1], the electrification ratio in Java Island is 98.27%, while in
Maluku and Papua islands is 85.75 and 57.46%, respectively.
This low electrification ratio in Maluku and Papua islands
indicate that there are some challenges in developing the
electricity system in the area.
Maluku and Papua regions have a very complex
geographical condition, consist of thousands of islands,
uneven population densities and different socio-economic
structures. Thus, it is believed that it is not appropriate if the
growth assumption approach is made evenly in the aggregate
of provinces. On the other hand, an approach with regional
clustering can be conducted so the assumption of load or
demand growth for each region can be more precise.
Furthermore, this will have a positive impact on the accuracy
of the provision of power plants and the preparation of other
electrical infrastructure, such as transmission, substations, and
distribution networks.
Clustering is a task dividing the data sets into a certain
number of cluster/groups in such that the data belonging to a
cluster have similar characteristics. Clustering can be
performed by using various method/ algorithms [2]. K-means
algorithm is widely used to perform clustering which falls in
partitioning algorithm category. This algorithm creates the
clusters based on the closest distance measured between data
point and centroid of the cluster [3].
Several research used k-means algorithm in power system
perspective. In [4]–[6] it is used to determine representative
days in GEP (Generation Expansion Planning) study. It results
in a subset of representative days that consist of wide variety
of operating conditions. After the representative days are
selected, the GEP study is performed. In [7], the algorithm is
used to detect blackout/abnormal condition in the
transmission network. In [8], [9], it is used to cluster consumer
based on daily consumption. Therefore, load forecasting can
be performed.
In this paper, k-means algorithm is used to perform the
region clustering. The input data sets are population, average
population growth, Gross Regional Domestic Product
(GRDP), and average growth of GRDP. By clustering each
region, hopefully the development of electricity system in
Maluku and Papua Islands can be performed precisely.
II. K-MEANS CLUSTERING
K-means clustering is a clustering method that divides
input data according to the “K” or number of clusters based on
the distance between the data and the data center (centroid)
[2], [3]. Therefore, the basic idea is to calculate the minimum
sum of squares of the distance (J) between the data input point
( ) and the centroid ( ) as shown in (1). For each , there
is a binary indicator variable ∈ 0,1 , to describe the
cluster of the data point . If is in cluster k, then =1.
The flowchart of k-means clustering is shown in Fig. 1.
Before performing k-means algorithm, all data ( ) need to be
inputted. Then, it is necessary to determine the number of
clusters (K) first. After that, the centroid value ( ) will be
assigned randomly. The number of centroids is the same as the

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number of clusters that will be created. Then, the algorithm
will calculate the distance between the data and the centroid
and group them based on the minimum distance as shown in
(1) and (2). When the group is created, the new centroid is
calculated by using (3). If there is a difference between the
current centroid and the previous centroid, the calculation will
be performed again so the minimum value of J in (1) is
obtained. However, if there is no difference in the centroid
value, the calculation will be stopped [10].

= ‖ − ‖
(1)

1 = arg min! " − !"

= (2)
0 #$ℎ& ' (&
∑
= (3)

III. METHODOLOGY
This study used several input data such as population,
average growth of population, GRDP, and average growth of
GRDP in Maluku and Papua region. These data is acquired in
the [11]–[14]. There are 63 districts in Maluku and Papua
region. These districts will be clustered into six cluster by
using k-means algorithm. This number is chosen to be a Fig. 2. Flowchart of Methodology
reasonable number for creating the cluster.
TABLE I. ENERGY CONSUMPTION, PEAK LOAD, GENERATION
The flowchart of this study is shown in Fig. 2. The first CAPACITY AND AREA IN EACH REGION
step is to input the data, such as population, average growth of
population, GRDP, and average growth of GRDP. Next, input Region/ Energy Peak Generation Area
Island Consumption Load Capacity (km2)
number of clusters to be created, which is six. After that, the (GWh) (MW) (MW)
k-means chooses the location of centroids randomly. Then, the Sumatra 36,698 8,014.37 11,936.43 480,793
distance between each data point of districts and centroids is Java 173,591 26,657.90 40,174.66 129,442
calculated. Each of the data point is grouped into the same Kalimantan 10,703 2,228.61 3,474.06 544,150
cluster based on the minimum distance to the centroids. Each Sulawesi 10,783 2,615.40 3,354.40 188,563
distance of the districts in either Maluku or Papua region is Maluku 1,056 210.60 543.70 852,735
calculated simultaneously. After that, new centroid is Papua 1,567 386.28 586.49 546,633
calculated. This calculation is repeated until the location of
TABLE II. ELECTRICAL SYSTEM IN MALUKU AND PAPUA
centroid remains the same. When clustering algorithm is
finished, region clustering map will be acquired. The Region System
clustering is performed in Microsoft Excel environment. Large Small “Listrik Desa”
Maluku 18 77 1,820
Papua 16 112 1,886

IV. EXISTING SYSTEM OF MALUKU AND PAPUA

Fig. 1. Flowchart of K-means Clustering
TABLE I. shows the existing conditions of electrical
energy consumption, peak load, generation capacity, as well
as are in each region/ island in Indonesia. From TABLE I. ,
the energy consumption, peak load and generation facilities of
Maluku and Papua region is the lowest compared to other
regions. However, they are the largest island in Indonesia.
Therefore, these regions are considered to be islands with
large area but low demand.
Transmission system in Maluku and Papua has a voltage
level of 70 and 150 kV. However, there are only two
transmission system in this region, namely Ambon and
Jayapura system. In addition, there are many isolated
distribution systems with voltage level of 20 kV to supply
electricity. Some of the transmission and distribution system
of Papua region is shown in Fig. 3. Fig. 3 represents the system
that have load above 2 MW or large system in Papua region.
In Fig. 3, there are a lot of region/district that are not covered
by the large system. Therefore, there are a significant amount

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of small system to supply the district that is not covered by the
large system. This system supplies the region that have less
than 2 MW load. In addition, this phenomenon is also
occurred in Maluku region. TABLE II. shows the number of
electrical system in Maluku and Papua regions [15].
There are many villages in Maluku and Papua that do not
have access to electricity. Therefore, the electrification ratio is
low compared to other regions. To supply the unelectrified
village and increase electrification ratio, PT. PLN has
developed a rural system or “Listrik Desa” system. Number of
Listrik Desa system in Maluku and Papua is shown in the last
column of TABLE II.
PT. PLN as electricity provider needs to perform
development of electrical system in large and small system.
However, it would be difficult for PT. PLN to develop 223
systems in Maluku and Papua region by modelling each of the
system. Therefore, clustering is needed to narrow down the
systems into the same electrical characteristics. When a cluster
is formed, PT. PLN can use it to develop a better electrical
system in Maluku and Papua regions.
V. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
In this study, clustering method is performed to group
districts in Maluku and Papua which have the same
characteristics for the development of electricity system.
There are six different clusters created as shown in TABLE
III. shows the result of clustering based on population, average
growth of population, GRDP, and average growth of GRDP.
These parameters are used as centroids. Based on the
centroids, the electricity growth for each cluster can be
interpreted as shown in the last column of TABLE III.
Cluster 1 has centroids at population of 62,342 people,
average growth of population of 1.0185%, GRDP of IDR
3,534 billion, and average growth of GRDP of 5.9541%.
Referring to the distribution of parameters, Cluster 1 is a group
of areas with low number in population, average growth of
population and GRDP, but medium number in average growth
of GRDP. Therefore, it can be interpreted that the existing
demand in Cluster 1 is at a low level but has a growth demand
on a low to medium scale.

Fig. 3. Large System in Papua Region

TABLE III. CENTROIDS, NUMBER OF DISTRICTS AND DESCIRPTION OF EACH CLUSTER

Average Interpretation of Demand Number

Number of Average Growth of GRDP
Cluster Growth of of
Population Population (%) (IDR Billion) Existing Growth
GRDP (%) Districts
1 62,342 1.0185 3,534 5.9541 Low Low to Medium 18
2 106,053 1.0175 2,899 6.0204 Low Medium 17
3 167,342 1.0187 4,941 6.0564 Medium Medium 10
4 28,813 1.0245 1,092 6.5013 Low Medium to High 9
5 425,997 1.0208 10,950 6.033 High Medium to High 3
6 241,110 1.0191 21,642 7.4443 High High 6

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 TABLE IV. RESULTS OF SOME DISTRICT IN EACH CLUSTER

Cluster Districts Number of Population Average Growth of GRDP Average Growth of

Population (%) (IDR Billion) GRDP (%)
1 Boven Digoel 69,211 1.025 4,570 4.754
Morotai Island 67,284 1.026 1,440 6.302
Kaimana 60,216 1.028 1,770 5.036
2 Southeast Maluku 99,790 1.003 2,990 5.880
Puncak Jaya 129,300 1.027 1,300 4.954
West Halmahera 118,287 1.017 2,090 5.292
3 Nabire 150,308 1.018 10,380 6.750
Biak Numfor 152,401 1.023 5,180 2.382
Lanny Jaya 178,995 1.010 1,103 6.104
4 South Manokwari 24,220 1.026 0,758 4.836
Sarmi 40,515 1.025 2,500 7.160
Waropen 31,514 1.026 1,900 8.898
5 Ambon City 478,616 1.039 13,810 6.202
Central Maluku 373,378 1.003 8,090 5.864
Mimika 219,689 1.020 85,340 6.700
6 Jayapura City 300,192 1.017 30,410 7.474
Merauke 227,411 1.013 14,528 7.570
South Halmahera 235,090 1.017 5,130 8.056

Fig. 4. Distribution of The Region in Each Cluster

Cluster 1 has the highest number of cluster members
among the other clusters, with 18 districts out of a total of 63
or equivalent to 28.5%. As can be seen in 0, the population,
average growth of population, GRDP, and average growth of
GRDP for each district are close to the centroids. Therefore, it
is confirmed that this district has similar characteristic in terms
of the development of electricity system.
In addition to the parameters used for clustering, the
projected development of the electricity system also considers
the number of islands and the population density of the area.
Fig. 4 illustrates the distribution of regions in each cluster.

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Looking at this distribution, Cluster 1 consists of districts on
the west coast of West Papua province, on the border with
Papua New Guinea, and several islands in the Maluku region
which is shown by the yellow color.
Cluster 2 is a cluster for areas that have low population and
GRDP but medium scale of average growth of population and
growth of GRDP. Cluster 2 centroids are located at population
of 106,053 people, average growth of population of 1.0175%,
GRDP of IDR 2,899 billion, and average growth of GRDP of
6.0204%. Some of the areas included in Cluster 2 are shown
in 0.From the data in Cluster 2, this cluster can be classified
as a group of areas with low existing demand but medium
growth demand.
Several areas in Cluster 2 are archipelagic areas and have
a high population density, such as Southeast Maluku Regency,
West Halmahera Regency, Tidore Islands Regency, and
Yapen Island Regency. Therefore, decentralized electricity
system is more suited in these areas. Judging from the
distribution of areas in Cluster 2, West Halmahera and Tidore
Islands districts have the potential to be developed as one
electricity system. Puncak Jaya Regency, Puncak Regency,
Nduga Regency and Asmat Regency have areas that are close
to each other, as illustrated with green color in Fig. 4.
However, the development of an integrated electricity system
in these districts needs to consider the spatial distribution of
population density as the distribution of electricity demand.
The third cluster has centroids with a population of
167,342 people, average growth of population of 1.0187%,
GRDP of IDR 4,941 billion, and average growth of GRDP of
6.0564%. Although all parameters in Cluster 3 are on the
medium scale, Cluster 3 can be interpreted as having a low
existing electrical demand, but medium scale of the growth of
demand. 0shows some of the districts that is included in
Cluster 3. Nabire is a district with a GRDP higher than the
centroid of GRDP in Cluster 3. However, other data point
distances (population, average growth of population and
average growth of GRDP) are closer to cluster centroids 3
compared to other cluster centroids. Hence, Nabire is more
suitable if it is included in Cluster 3.
Several districts in Cluster 3 are archipelagic areas, such
as Biak Numfor Regency with 177 islands, Nabire Regency
with 23 islands and North Halmahera Regency with 22
islands. In addition, the population density for Cluster 3 is on
a fairly low scale. The district with a relatively high population
density and is a non-island area in Cluster 3 is Lanny Jaya
Regency. Therefore, the centralized system can be developed
in this district.
Tosca color in Fig. 4 illustrates the distribution of regions
in Cluster 3. Several distritcs are located close to each other,
thus enabling the development of a joint electricity system.
For example, Tolikara Regency is directly adjacent to Lanny
Jaya Regency, and Nabire Regency is directly adjacent to
Paniai Regency.
Cluster 4 has population of 28,813 people, average growth
of population of 1.0245%, GRDP of IDR 1,092 billion and
average growth of GRDP of 6.5013% as centroids. Cluster 4
has a relatively low population, high population growth, and
medium GRDP and average growth GRDP. This data can be
interpreted that the existing electrical demand in Cluster 4 is
on a low scale but the growth demand can reach a medium to
high scale. All districts categorized in Cluster 4 are located in
the Papua region. The distribution of the region is shown by
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the blue color in Fig. 4 while some areas included in the cluster
is shown in 0
Cluster 5 has population of 425,997 people, average
growth of population of 1.0208%, GRDP of Rp. 10,950 billion
and average growth od GRDP of 6.033% as centroids. Based
on the distribution of the data, this cluster has a high number
in population and GRDP, but medium number in average
growth of population and GRDP. In addition, this cluster have
the highest number of population but the lowest number of
districts. This cluster can be considered as having an existing
high electrical demand with medium to high growth demand.
The areas included in Cluster 5 can be seen in 0, while the
distribution of the regions is shown by the red color in Fig. 4
Cluster 6 is a cluster with high number of population,
GRDP, and average growth of GRDP, while low number in
average growth of population. This is indicated by the value
of centroids for population of 241,110 people, average growth
of population of 1.0191%, GRDP of IDR 21,642 billion and
average growth of GRDP of 7.4443%. In addition, this cluster
has the highest GRDP among other clusters. From the data, it
is interpreted that Cluster 6 is an area with a high existing
demand and growth demand. Some areas belonging to Cluster
6 are shown in 0while the distribution of areas is shown by the
purple color in Fig. 4.
These clusters can be used as guidelines to develop
electrical system in Maluku and Papua regions. For instance,
by building new power plant in a district which belongs to
cluster 6 as it has high population and high population-GRDP
growth. Then, the electricity can be distributed to neighboring
districts. Furthermore, supply chain model can also be
developed. Supply chain model is important to determine the
supply of energy that is feasible for generation expansion
planning. In addition, these clusters can also be used to
determine how the system can be developed, whether it is a
centralized, decentralized, or mixed system
VI. CONCLUSION
The Maluku and Papua regions have complex
geographical conditions, thousands of small islands, uneven
population densities, and different socio-economic. Thus, the
approach with regional clustering efforts is an approach option
that is performed so the development of the electricity system
in Maluku-Papua can be carried out optimally. The results
show that there are six clusters based on the consideration of
population, average growth of population, GRDP, and average
growth of GRDP. Furthermore, this study also shows some
recommendation regarding the development of the electricity
in each cluster. These six clusters can be used as a reference
for the development of the electricity system in Maluku and
Papua region.
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