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Individual activities 1
Balance of trade in goods: $19 618 m − $24 900 m = −$5 282 m, Balance of trade in
1 a
services = $2 121 m − $4 074 m = −$1 953 m. Balance of trade on goods and services =
−$5 282 m + −$1 953 m = −$7 235 m.
b R millions
Trade in goods −34 412
Trade in services –5 987
Primary income –100 366
Secondary income –33 533
–174 298
2 a
An export of services is the sale of intangible products, such as banking and insurance, to
another country.
b Demand for construction services in China is likely to increase in the future. This is because
China is expected to continue to grow. More businesses are likely to set up and housing and
places of entertainment are to be built.
c The UK may be particularly good at producing financial services because it has a history of
providing such services, a range of financial institutions, skilled labour and advanced capital
equipment.
3 a i Profits, interest and dividends.
ii Factories, shares and loans.
b It is possible that the fall in investment income may have been the result of UK banks lending
less to foreigners or lending the same amount but receiving a lower rate of interest on its
loans. Either way, the interest earned by the UK may have fallen. Of course, the decline in
investment income might also have been the result of the dividends earned on foreign shares
or the profits earned by UK firms producing abroad declining.
4 a i A rise in the exchange rate and a rise in inflation.
ii Trade in goods.
b It may be concerned that the products it is manufacturing are not in high world demand. If
this is the case, it may continue to have a deficit.
Four-part question
a Primary income is a component of the current account of the balance of payments. It covers
income earned by people working in different countries and investment income.
b A country could have a deficit on its primary income but a current account surplus if there is a
larger surplus on one or more of the other components of the current account. For instance, a
country could have a deficit of $10 bn on its primary income and a deficit of $30 bn on its trade in
goods balance. If it has a surplus of $25 bn on its trade in services balance and a surplus of $35 bn
on its secondary income, it will have a current account surplus of $10 bn.
c A rise in a country’s inflation rate would make the country’s goods and services less price
competitive if it rises by more than rival countries. The price of exports would rise relative to
imports. Demand for the country’s exports of goods and services is likely to fall, while demand
for imports of goods and services is likely to rise. If demand for exports and imports is price
elastic, export revenue would decrease and import expenditure would rise. The trade in goods
and services balance may move into a deficit or a smaller surplus. This change will move the
current account deficit in two circumstances. One is that a trade in goods deficit: is not offset by
a surplus on primary and secondary income. The other is that a reduction in a trade in goods and
services surplus leaves the surplus at less than a deficit on primary and secondary income.
d Whether an increase in a current account surplus will benefit an economy will depend, in part,
on the cause of the increase and on the state of the economy. If the increase is due to a rise
in international competitiveness, caused by higher productivity, the economy’s output will
increase. This should also result in a fall in unemployment as more workers are likely to be
employed to produce the extra output.
There is, however, the possibility that the increase in the surplus may be the result of a recession
in the country. In this case, the increase may be the result of a fall in imports rather than exports.
Domestic firms may be importing less raw materials and capital goods because their output is
falling. Domestic households may be buying fewer consumer goods because their incomes are
declining.
An increase in a surplus may be the consequence of a rise in incomes in other economies. With
higher incomes abroad, demand for the economy’s exports may rise. An economy can benefit
from other economies becoming stronger but the surplus may be threatened if these economies
experience a slowdown in economic growth or a recession. The surplus may also come under
pressure if the economy has exported more raw materials and capital goods. In the longer term,
these exports may enable the importing economies to produce more efficiently and so may
become more effective competitors.
A rise in a surplus on the trade in goods and services balance is not the only reason for an
increase in a current account surplus. It is possible that the increase in the current account
surplus is the result of a rise in primary income or secondary income. If a positive balance on
net primary income has arisen because, for instance, higher profit is being received from the
economy’s existing branches of MNCs producing abroad, this would be beneficial. If, however, the
higher profit received is due to more branches producing abroad, it may be debatable whether
the economy would have benefited more from the production occurring at home. Similarly,
if the economy’s workers abroad are sending more of their earnings home, it can be useful
as it can raise the living standards of their relatives. If, however, secondary income has arisen
because more the economy’s skilled workers are working abroad, the economy may suffer from a
shortage of skilled workers.
A current account surplus, not offset by a fall in consumer expenditure, government spending
or investment, will increase total demand. This higher demand may not benefit an economy if
it is operating close to its full capacity. In this case, demand-pull inflation may occur. Of course, 3
there is the possibility that a current account surplus will raise the economy’s exchange rate.
Foreign banks, firms and individuals will be buying more of the economy’s currency than
domestic banks, firms and individuals will be selling. A higher exchange rate will reduce the price
of imports. The cost of production could fall due to lower-priced imported raw materials and
capital goods. There would also be more pressure on domestic firms to keep their prices low in
order to continue to compete with relatively cheaper imported consumer goods.