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October 11, 2022
Frank DeVechio & Dan Amoss
We hope you were able to join us this morning for the October intelligence briefing with your editor, Jim Rickards. It was an
important discussion detailing Jim’s outlook for markets as we head into the fourth quarter. He included a rundown on the
current situation in Ukraine as well as economic and monetary policy that will influence markets in the coming months. We
also had an informative Q&A session toward the end of the call.
For the first-time listeners to our briefings, we hope you enjoyed the information Jim shared as many of the points he made
are not being addressed by the mainstream press, which is a great benefit you recognize by becoming a member of
Strategic Intelligence. Senior analyst Dan Amoss will analyze the briefing more below.
If you missed it, don’t worry — we recorded the entire thing for you, along with a full transcription. You’ll be able to listen to
it in its entirety or review the transcript if it’s more convenient for you. Click here to listen to or read the transcript of
today’s briefing. (https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/article/jim-rickards-fourth-quarter-market-outlook-2)
Jim just recorded an urgent message (https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2091596) that could be the difference between
making a killing in the market or losing everything.
It involves a government-issued patent that could change the course of your life
So, I urge you to find out what this patent means for you and your financial future.
This may be your last chance to turn the next big surprise… into the fortune-building opportunity of a lifetime.
Everything will make sense when you click here and read all the details. (https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2091596)
When you have finished reviewing that, please read below for this month’s full portfolio update with all of Dan’s latest
guidance. To read it, please scroll down all the way.
Remember…if you have any questions about our service or just need something clarified with being a new subscriber,
drop us a line at askjim@paradigm.press (mailto:askjim@paradigm.press) or give our customer service team a call at
844-731-0984. We want you to be clear-eyed in benefiting from this publication, so any questions are very important to us.
Again, thank you for joining us this morning. Jim and I hope you found it informative, and we look forward to having you
join us for your next monthly briefing on November 8. We will send details as we get closer to that date.
Our new issue will be released later this month and expect a new Five Links next Monday from Jim, so keep an eye on
your inbox.
In this month’s briefing, Jim discussed his outlook for the fourth quarter.
One point stood out: In recent economic reports, inventories have grown.
The Atlanta Fed’s real-time indicator (https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow) of GDP growth has jumped from
0.5% to 2.9% over the past three weeks. But this includes an inventory buildup.
Inventory buildups precede liquidations. Stocks in the retail, industrial, and transportation sectors have been weak. They
probably have more downside.
Two other big issues heated up since our last monthly portfolio update: Bond, stock, and currency markets in Europe and
the UK were hammered, and the Russia-Ukraine war intensified.
On the Ukraine War, Jim described how hard it is to find reliable information from at least two or three independent
perspectives – especially from Russia.
The mainstream media narrative is that Ukraine has the Russian military on the run. “The reality is a little different,” said
Jim.
Yes, Ukraine has made progress in its offensive operations. But the progress was against mostly national guard troops and
militia members from Ukraine’s breakaway provinces in the Donbas. Meanwhile, the Russians are preparing for a new
offensive.
Here’s what Jim expects, which is not what you’re seeing in the mainstream media: Russia’s newly mobilized troops are
not being sent directly to Ukraine. They will likely report for Siberia to substitute for more seasoned troops. And the
seasoned troops will head to the front lines in Ukraine.
There’s no solid information about which party is responsible for the damage. But Jim has an idea, and it might surprise
you. Here’s a hint: It’ll hurt Germany’s economy. It weakens Russia’s negotiating leverage. Neither party would benefit
from the long-term loss of Nord Stream. Listen to the briefing for Jim’s answer.
Jim concluded with an overview of the inferential methods used by intelligence analysts. Analysts draw conclusions using
incomplete information. Conclusions are partially speculative. It’s similar to analysis in the stock market. By the time you
have perfect hindsight, the opportunity to make proactive decisions has passed.
Powell’s press conference was hawkish. He stayed on message, repeating the hawkish tone he used in the August
Jackson Hole speech that sparked a big market sell-off. He said the Fed wants to see a better balance between supply
and demand and convincing evidence that inflation is moving back toward 2%.
One highlight is the Fed’s acknowledgment that chances of a soft landing are low. “I wish there were a painless way” to get
inflation down, said Powell. “There isn't.”
The Fed has taken control over so many markets, including stocks, that it has bit off much more than it can chew. I
wouldn't want to be in Powell's high-pressure position. But the reality is that the Fed has boxed itself into a potentially
destructive feedback loop: Traders in the 2-year Treasury market are watching the Fed for guidance on where to price
yields, and the Fed is watching the 2-year yield for feedback on how the market is reacting to its rate hikes. Stocks fall as
2-year yields rise.
Word is spreading quickly that there is an alternative to stocks: Treasuries with fairly short maturities that yield over 4%.
Passive index fund investors and many retirees are still heavily exposed to risky stocks with unrewarding dividend yields
under 2%. Until the Fed has clearly indicated that it’s done with rate hikes, the path of least resistance for stocks is lower.
Finally, last week’s surprise OPEC+ oil production cut of 2 million barrels per day lit a fire under the oil and gas sector. Our
four oil and gas stocks (CTRA, CPE, CRGY, and OVV) have all sprinted past the S&P 500’s thus far in the month of
October.
Management typically hedges only 20% to 30% of near-term oil and gas volumes. That gives shareholders lots of leverage
to higher oil and gas prices. It stands to greatly benefit from a persistently high natural gas price environment.
We think Coterra’s earnings power is in the range of $6 per share in 2023. Earnings will likely be even higher in the mid-
2020s if a common sense-based U.S. energy transition policy is adopted, and local oil and gas production is encouraged.
This gives us a long-term price target of $72 for the stock.
On September 2 (https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/article/the-mid-term-election-forecast-part-1-your-roadmap-for-
investing), we recommended shares of Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:
WPM (https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/ticker/WPM)), one of the top gold and silver streaming companies in the world.
Thanks to a steady flow of new stream acquisitions, the volume of metals flowing into Wheaton’s revenue has increased. If
you combine higher volumes with higher gold and silver prices, revenue can grow through two powerful levers.
Wheaton generated over $1 billion in cash flow in 2021. Assuming higher gold and silver prices, plus higher production as
new streams come online, we see a path to $1.4 billion in cash flow by 2024. Using a 25 multiple of cash flow and 451
million shares outstanding, we get a 2024 price target of $77 per share. How soon WPM gets there depends mostly on the
future path of gold and silver prices.
Crescent’s production level is significant at roughly 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day. The mix by commodity
is 58% oil and liquids, 42% natural gas. A distinguishing feature of Crescent’s production is that it includes many
conventional oil wells, so the corporate average decline rate is only 22%. That means Crescent only has to spend a
fraction of what a pure shale company does in drilling and completion in order to maintain its oil and gas production.
Crescent is earning so much money at current oil and gas prices that its dividend is very sustainable, and it has plenty of
money left over to invest in acquisitions or new drilling projects.
We are confident L3Harris will still be selling state-of-the-art equipment and services to U.S. and allied military forces
several decades from now. Our target price over the next year or two is $340.
L3Harris is buying back plenty of stock, which makes good sense considering the stock’s low P/E ratio, and the business’s
visibility.
Some L3Harris engineers specialize in designing the next generation of electronic warfare equipment. They may have
received copies of recently captured Russian equipment. It could aid in the design of next-generation equipment, which
could in turn boost L3Harris’s export earnings in the 2020s.
When Ukrainian troops mounted an offensive operation in mid-September, Russian troops retreated from the Kharkiv
region. The Russians left behind valuable electronic warfare equipment.
Revenue and earnings at L3Harris are very predictable. That’s why the stock has held up much better than the S&P 500 in
2022.
LHX can surprise on the upside if the company can participate in a surge in export sales of next-generation electronic
warfare equipment to U.S. allies. If U.S. weapons makers take global market share from Russian weapons makers, LHX
stands to benefit.
On May 26 (https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/article/the-most-powerful-recession-predictor-tool-of-all-and-what-its-
signaling), we recommended Seabridge Gold (NYSE: SA (https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/ticker/SA)). Seabridge’s
KSM Project is located in a mining-friendly region of British Colombia, Canada. Located near infrastructure and ports, KSM
is one of the most attractive gold-copper acquisition targets in the world.
Each share of SA has a claim on 0.57 ounces of gold reserves and 127 pounds of copper. At current metals prices, that
adds up to roughly $1,500 per share in reserves. Of course, this number doesn’t account for the time value of money for a
multi-decade project, or the enormous upfront investment required to bring KSM into production. However, if you only
assume shareholders will extract five cents on the dollar, over time, of their reserves per share, then SA would be worth
about $75.
OVV’s strong stock performance can continue because it is now a more disciplined, focused company that is highly
profitable.
On August 3, Ovintiv reported its highest quarterly cash flow and free cash flow in over a decade. Management expects to
deliver more than $1 billion to OVV shareholders in 2022 and assuming current strip pricing. It also expects shareholder
returns to more than double in 2023. OVV remains an excellent play on higher-for-longer natural gas prices.
Management is guiding to over $500 million in adjusted free cash flow in 2022, based on WTI oil prices of just $75 per
barrel. Its free cash flow in a $100-plus oil environment will be too impressive for the market to ignore. We expect Callon to
meet its debt reduction targets far ahead of schedule, and start repurchasing stock, making more acquisitions, or paying
dividends. Callon may be an acquisition target. Our long-term price target is above $180.
On August 3, Callon reported solid quarterly results. On just over 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (61% oil), Callon
generated $418 million in adjusted EBITDA and $3.68 in adjusted EPS. Callon’s debt reduction is going according to plan.
CPE is a great play on higher oil prices and is a buy if you don’t already have a position.
To profit, we recommended buying the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (NYSE: URNM
(https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/ticker/URNM)). It provides exposure to large uranium miners, physical uranium trusts,
and a wide portfolio of uranium juniors – most of which are listed in Canada and Australia.
Nuclear power may soon be embraced by a broader cohort of environmentalists, especially in light of Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine. Russia is a supplier of uranium, and is being aggressively sanctioned. Nuclear plants may have to look elsewhere
for supplies, driving up prices.
If you don’t already have a position, now is a good entry point for this ETF for those who have a long-term investing
horizon.
The Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (NYSE: URNM) is a buy up to $75 per share.
On July 27, Agnico’s Q2 earnings report was unusually good. Like other miners, Agnico is dealing with high operating
costs. But it is already seeing benefits and cost savings from the recently closed Kirkland Lake merger.
Agnico’s ownership of high-grade underground gold mines really shined in Q2. The higher-cost open-pit mines that anchor
Barrick and Newmont are getting hit by high diesel prices. The amount of fuel burned per ounce of gold at Agnico’s
operations is noticeably lower.
Agnico’s production costs surprised on the downside this quarter, and its operating cash flow surprised on the upside.
Management also highlighted some impressive exploration results that can extend the lives at several of its key mines. For
instance, a new mine plan at Detour Lake has boosted its gold reserves by 38%, to more than 20 million ounces. Its
expected life has been extended by 10 years, to the year 2052.
To profit from the aggressive fiscal and monetary response to disappointing demographics, we recommended shares of
Equinox Gold (NYSE: EQX (https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/ticker/EQX)). Equinox is a “bet the jockey, rather than
the horse” type of investment, because its mines are on the lower end of the quality scale. However, because Equinox
acquired these mines so cheaply, and EQX shares trade at an extreme discount to peers, it’s hard to ignore the stock’s
value.
On August 3, reported a net loss due to temporary operational challenges at several mines sites in the second quarter.
However, management expects improved performance in the second half of the year with increased production and lower
costs.
Construction progress at the Greenstone project in Ontario is 35% complete and remains on schedule and on budget.
Sentiment on EQX is very bearish, so it could rally sharply on gold’s next upward move.
To profit from rising investor concerns about monetary debasement, we recommended shares of Royal Gold (NASDAQ:
RGLD (https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/ticker/RGLD)), which has a diversified portfolio of royalty and streaming
assets, predictable cash flow, and a long track record of paying rising dividends.
Royal Gold currently has 190 properties around the world. Only 44 properties are in production, so it has a rich backlog of
potential revenue growth. As gold prices rise, it should accelerate the exploration-stage projects on which royalties and
streams are held. A combination of higher free cash flow and a higher multiple on the stock can push RGLD up to $240.
On August 3, Royal Gold reported production volume of 78,300 gold-equivalent ounces for Q2. This generated revenue of
$146.4 million, operating cash flow of $120.2 million, and earnings of $71.1 million. Royal Gold ended the quarter debt
free, with cash of $280 million and total liquidity of $1.3 billion to invest in new assets. It also paid a quarterly dividend of
$0.35 per share, which is a 17% increase over the prior year.
On July 20, Newcrest reported excellent financial results for the fiscal year ending June 2022. Gold production met
management’s guidance. A highlight was record all-in cost performance at Cadia.
For the full fiscal year, all-in sustaining costs were just $1,044 per ounce of gold, resulting in a margin of 41% or $732 per
ounce.
Management’s guidance for 2022 includes the production of 32.6 to 34.6 million silver equivalent ounces. First Majestic is
now predominantly a gold producer, with about 65% of revenue from gold.
On August 4, First Majestic reported second-quarter production of 7.7 million silver equivalent ounces, up 20% compared
to last year. Total production included 2.8 million ounces of silver and 59,391 ounces of gold.
If gold and silver prices soon rise to reflect the inflationary cost environment, AG should have a significant rally.
Kinross’s second-quarter results, reported on July 27, were better than expected, and sparked a rally in the stock. Gold
equivalent production was 453,978 in the quarter. All-in sustaining costs were $1,341 per ounce. Cash flow looked good
despite higher production costs.
Long-term guidance includes average production of two million gold-equivalent ounces per year over the remainder of the
decade.
On August 10, Fortuna reported Q2 financial and operating results. Gold and silver production were 62,171 ounces and
1.6 million ounces, respectively.
Fortuna announced solid production results for the third quarter on October 6. Management reiterated its production
guidance for the rest of 2022.
Alamos’s Q2 earnings results were good. The quarter strongly indicates that the recent string of disappointing operational
and financial results is ending. Management expects operating costs to decrease in the second half of 2022 compared to
the first half with the ramp up of low-cost production at La Yaqui Grande, higher grades at Island Gold, and a weaker
Canadian dollar.
Management forecasts gold-equivalent production of roughly 8 million ounces from 2024 to 2026.
Newmont’s second quarter earnings report in late July sparked a huge sell-off in the stock. This follows a period of rough
performance over several months. Earnings disappointed due to Covid breakouts and absenteeism at its Australian mines.
Higher labor, materials, fuel, and consumables costs all weighed on results.
However, these issues are temporary. Once gold prices have their next rally, which could be imminent, NEM shares will
rebound significantly. The stock is supported by a high, sustainable dividend yield.
Hold your position in Newmont Corp (NEM).
In our Sept. 22, 2017 (https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/article/target-quick-20-dec-8-d-day) issue, Jim detailed how the
Fed risks popping the technology stock bubble under its balance sheet normalization plan.
Our longtime skeptical view of the big-cap tech stocks started to gain traction in 2022. There is more room for this view to
spread as the Fed removes the punchbowl from the raucous party that had developed in tech stocks.
To profit, we recommended buying shares of the Direxion China Bear ETF (NYSE: CHAD
(https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/ticker/CHAD)). Weakness in Chinese stocks and the Chinese yuan drive CHAD
higher.
If trade tensions flare up again, President Xi (who has ultimate control over key monetary policy decisions) might resort to
an unconventional response of devaluing the yuan. A devaluation would push the value of Chinese A-shares lower in terms
of U.S. dollars, which would, in turn, benefit the CHAD ETF.
Starting on April 15, 2022, the yuan broke down against the U.S. dollar, after a sleepy, year-long sideways movement.
China’s financial system is not healthy, and Covid lockdowns are not helping.
Jim and I will continue to publish investment ideas and analysis you can’t find anywhere else. We’ll send you a flash alert if
any of our open positions require immediate action.
https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/article/your-october-portfolio-update-2
Actions To Take