Julio César Centeno

Mérida - Venezuela
Jc-centeno@outlook.com

The Climate Debt

Joe Biden sits in the Oval Office after a long walk on a thick carpet of
promises to the American people to act on climate change. In his first day
in office he signed the re-incorporation of the US to the Paris Agreement,
and knighted John Kerry as his special envoy on climate change.
Both Biden and Kamala Harris boasted support for the Green New Deal
and climate justice. “Climate change is the number one issue facing
humanity" he said. “Climate change is an existential threat. Confronting it
requires bold action. I’m a proud cosponsor of the Green New Deal
resolution" she stated.
Biden first convened a meeting of the G7 in the UK in June 2021, the
wealthiest liberal democracies, with 10% of the world population and 40%
of global GDP. They agreed on a common strategy “based on science”, the
product of their combined might, both scientifically and politically. A
presumed blessing for humanity, threatened with impending climate
disaster.
Things went sour at the G20 meeting in Rome in October, the 20 largest
economies, with opposition from China, Russia and India to the G7´s
proposal.
Then came COP-26 at the end of 2021, the conference of the parties to the
Paris Agreement. Biden took the podium to announce to an expecting
world audience the commitment of the G7, under the leadership of the
United States, to solving the climate crisis. It was summarized in two key
objectives: to limit the increase in global surface temperature to 1.5°C, and
to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

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One by one, European heads of state obediently followed suit, including
kings, queens and princes, all making the same promises.
China and Russia were harshly criticized for moving their net zero
emissions target to 2060. India was publicly insulted for daring to move it
even further, to 2070. No one explained why 2050 was better than 2060
“according to science”. Most scientists kept quiet.
What slipped unnoticed was the astonishing contradiction between such
targets, a monumental blunder saturated with ignorance, plus unbound
contempt for the security of younger generations.
With its net zero emissions target, the US is in fact announcing the
intention to emit at least 79 gigatons of CO2 between 2021 and 2050. The
European Union 27 in turn announced its intention to emit at least 44
gigatons of CO2 by 2050.
One of the key conclusions of
IPCC’s most recent report, AR6
2021, is that, to limit the increase of
temperature to 1.5°C, it is
necessary to limit CO2 emissions to
a maximum of 400 gigatons from
2021 to 2100. That’s science talk.
Progress with the Paris Agreement
has been stalled for years, mainly
due to differences between
industrial and developing countries
related to climate justice, historic
responsibility, future allocations, finance and technology transfer.
The remaining carbon budget related to the 1.5°C target, or to any other
target, should be allocated amongst all the people of the world in equal
parts, a common good shared equally by all humankind in pursue of a
common goal. It must be distributed among countries in proportion to their
populations.

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The US is entitled to a budget of 17 gigatons. It implies net zero emissions
by 2026 at the latest. The EU-27 budget is in turn limited to 20 gigaton,
implying zero net emissions by 2032 at the latest.
With its 2050 net zero target, the US pretends to snatch an emission budget
of 62 gigatons in excess, dispossessing 1,210 million people from other
corners of the world from their emission allowances, making it practically
impossible to reach the 1.5°C target. The current market value of such a
pillage significantly exceeds 5 trillion, based on current CO2 emission
allowance prices in the EU market (US$ 80/ton)
Biden and his European allies were careful not to mention historic
responsibilities. Industrialized countries, with less than 17% of the
population of the world, are responsible for 70% of the anthropogenic
global warming accumulated to date. It seems only reasonable that they
should also take responsibility for at least 70% of the costs involved to
overcome the evolving climate crisis.
The US contribution to global warming to
date is larger than that of China, India,
Africa and Latin America combined. The
European Union is in a similar situation.
Janet Yellen, head of the Federal Reserve
under Trump and now Secretary of the
Treasury under Biden, estimates the cost
of the necessary transformation of the
energy infra-structure at around 150
trillion dollars in the next 30 years, 70%
larger than world GDP in 2019, before
the Covid pandemic. An average of 5 trillion dollars a year, 30 years in a
row. Other estimates are similar. McKinsey place the tab at 9 trillion a year
(McKinsey: Solving the Net Zero Equation 2022). Bloomberg New Energy Finance
sets the tab at 173 trillion in the next 30 years for “energy supply and
infrastructure investment”
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The challenge requires the complete transformation of energy systems
worldwide, evolved over more than a century, in no more than 30 years.
Nearly 60% of that investment needs to take place in the developing
world, over 3 trillion dollars a year, for 30 years in a row. Industrial
countries should contribute with 70% of that amount, about 2 billion per
year. But the best they argue they can do to help the developing world is to
offer them 0.1 trillion dollars a year. Voluntarily, that is. They reserve their
right to change their mind any time, at will. That is barely 3% of what
developing countries require to decarbonize their economies. An insulting
handout, particularly considering historic responsibilities.

The climate debt of industrial countries far exceeds the public external
debt of developing countries. Historical responsibilities must be
acknowledge. Otherwise, either developing countries would have to
condemn their populations with debt for generations, or all our children
will be condemned to a planet hostile to human survival.

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 The EU in turn pretends to snatch an
emission budget of 24 gigatons in
excess, dispossessing 470 million
people from other corners of the world
from their emission allowances,
perversely and deliberately
contributing to make it impossible to
reach the 1.5°C target. The current
market value of such a pillage exceeds
US$ 2 trillion, based on current CO2
emission allowance prices in the EU
market (US$ 80/ton).
The US and the EU seem determined to herd humanity down the path of
collective suicide, towards a 2°C increase in the average surface
temperature by 2050 and 4°C by 2100. They´ve become the main obstacles
to progress in climate negotiations, refuse to acknowledge their
disproportionate responsibility for the expanding climate crisis threatening
humanity, refuse an equalitarian distribution of the remaining emissions
budgets, refuse to assist developing countries with financial assistance and
technology transfer, and suggest that developing countries, already
impoverished and deeply in debt, further compromise their prospects for
development assuming additional gigantic financial commitments to
decarbonize their economies. Most developing countries would need to
shackle future generations with unpayable debts, to overcome a global
menace engendered mainly by the
wealthiest minority of humanity.
The last time average world temperature
was 2°C above preindustrial times was in
the Eemiense interglacial period, some
125.000 years ago. Sea level was then
about seven (7) meters above the one we
know.
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The last time average world temperature was 4°C above preindustrial
times, some 4 million years ago, the human species did not exist and sea
level was about 24 meters above the one we know. A completely different
and spooky world.
Average world temperature is closely linked
to the concentration of CO2 in the
atmosphere. It is now at 410 parts per
million (ppm). The last time this happened
was in the Pliocene, over 4 million years
ago, with an average temperature 4°C above
preindustrial times and the ocean nearly 30
meters above current levels. No humans
wondered the Earth then.
2°C is the limit between dangerous and
catastrophic global warming. That’s our current course, where humanity is
being herded like sheep, in barely 30 years. The rest are just promises,
often absurd, such as Biden’s at COP26 in Glasgow.
With the US claiming 19% of the global CO2 emission budget to limit the
temperature increase to 1.5°C, China followed suit, arbitrarily claiming
62.5%, with a population over four
times larger than that of the US. China´s
budget should be limited to only 73
gigatons, in proportion to its population,
implying net zero emissions by 2035 at
the latest. China pretends to grab 177
gigatons in excess, dispossessing 3,400
million people from other corners of the
world from their emission allowances.
The current value of such a swindle
exceeds 14 trillion dollars, based on
current CO2 emission allowance prices in the EU market (US$ 80/ton).

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Russia also refused to be left behind from the CO2 emission budget
giveaway. Only India managed to adjust its proposal according to science.
No apologies from those who insulted India for disobeying instructions
from the G7 regarding the 2050 target.
The COP-26 gaffe will reverberate for years to come as a gigantic blunder,
not only for its complete disconnection from scientific knowledge, but for
purposely endangering the security of our children, forcing them to
attempt to survive in a planet increasingly hostile to human existence.
Time is quickly running out. Humanity is
in real and increasing danger. Government
bureaucrats have wasted over 50 years in
fruitless negotiations, always ending up in
useless and hollow promises, such as those
at COP26.
Time is ripe for a massive rebellion of
youth, our only hope to protect the delicate
energy balance of our planet that allowed
the development of human civilization
over the last 10,000 years.
jc-centeno@outlook.com

February 10, 2022

Julio César Centeno – ingeniero venezolano licenciado en la universidad de Nueva York; estudios de
maestría y doctorado en la Universidad de California. Profesor de la Universidad de los Andes. Asesor
de la Conferencia de Naciones Unidas para Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo [UNCED]. Director
Ejecutivo del Instituto Forestal Latino Americano. Representante de Venezuela en negociaciones
internacionales sobre bosques y cambios climáticos. Investido por la casa real de Holanda con la
Orden del Arca Dorada. Galardonado por el Proyecto de Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente
con la condecoración GLOBAL 500. Vicepresidente de la Fundación TROPENBOS, Holanda. Miembro
del Consejo Directivo del Forest Stewardship Council, FSC. Miembro del Consejo Directivo de SGS-
Forestry, Oxford. Profesor visitante de la Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO).
Profesor visitante del Departamento de Política y Economía Forestal de la Universidad de Viena,
Austria. Miembro del Consejo Asesor para Ambiente y Desarrollo de PDVSA-Bitor. Asesor
internacional.