Maruti Suzuki India: Msil in Staged For A Strong Comeback

[India] Autos December 07, 2022
INDIA COMPANY ANALYSIS
Maruti Suzuki India MSIL IN Buy

(Initiate)
TP: W000,000
Staged for a strong comeback Upside: 00.0%
TP: INR 10,947
Upside: 26.4%
Mirae Asset Capital Markets (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Rohit Khatri rohit.khatri@miraeassetcm.com
PV Industry to grow at We initiate coverage on Maruti Suzuki India with a Buy rating and a target price of INR 10,947
a CAGR of 12.5% over (upside 26.4%) on the back of improved industry growth outlook (12.5% CAGR over FY22-25E), market
FY22-25E share recovery for MSIL (46.1% in FY25E) and strong turnaround in its financial performance
(Revenue/PAT CAGR of 20.1%/47.6% over FY22-25E). We expect the on-going recovery for domestic PV to
continue on the back of near-term growth drivers including strong order backlog and ease in supply side issues.
The structural growth drivers including pick-up in economic activity, higher replacement demand, increasing
affordability, low penetration (household penetration 8% v/s 30% in China), rising disposable income and higher
aspiration would continue to drive volume growth for the industry. We expect domestic PV volumes to grow at
a CAGR of 12.5% over FY22-25E.
MSIL market share to MSIL would be the biggest beneficiary of improved demand outlook given its leadership position. The portfolio
recover to 46.1% by FY25E gaps in UVs have been well addressed by the company as evident from the new feature loaded launches made
from 41.1% in H1FY23 by MSIL (Grand Vitara and Brezza) in the fast-growing UV segment. Moreover, three new models are expected
to be launched over the next 1-2 years which would help MSIL regain its footing. MSIL’s would look to further
strengthen its dominant position in the small car segment (we expect small cars to outperform UVs from FY24E)
given its strong product portfolio, unmatched distribution, and service network. All these factors would help
MSIL to recover its market share to 46.1% in FY25E.
Bet on CNG/Hybrid In our view, meaningful pick up in EV penetration is still 3-4 years away for the industry given multiple
appropriate challenges including high cost of ownership, lack of low-cost models and inadequate charging infrastructure.
Amid tightening emission norms, moving towards hybrids and CNG would be the appropriate strategy as it
offers better cost economics compared to EVs and similar to a petrol variant. While the long-term play would be
EVs, CNG/Hybrids would act as a bridge for transition to EVs. MSIL is the largest player in the PV - CNG (71%
share in CNG vehicles) category and is looking to strengthen its position through new CNG variant launches in
existing product portfolio. The EV plans (first launch expected in 2025) are well in place with strong support from
parent and partnership with Toyota.
Initiate at BUY We estimate volumes/revenue to grow at a CAGR of 14%/20% over FY22-25E on the back of market share gains
and improved realizations due to rising share of UVs. Moreover, change in mix, higher operating leverage,
easing commodity cost pressures and cost saving initiatives would aid margin improvement of 450bps to 11%
by FY25E. We expect EBITDA and PAT to grow at a CAGR of 43.4%/47.6% over FY22-25E. The stock trades at a
valuation of 26.1x/21.6x FY24E and FY25E EPS. We initiate coverage on Maruti Suzuki India with a Buy rating and
a target price of INR 10,947 valuing the company at 28x Dec-24 EPS, 7% discount to 10-Yr average P/E.
Key data
150 Maruti Suzuki India Ltd Current price (07/12/22) INR 8,659.15 Shareholding pattern
Nifty Index
Exchange BSE/NSE (%) Apr’22 Jun’22 Sep’22
125
Market cap INR 2,615.8bn / USD 31.66bn Promoters 56.4 56.4 56.4
Shares outstanding 302mn -Pledged - - -
100
52-week high/low INR 9,769 / 6,536.55 Free float 43.6 43.6 43.6
75 Daily average volume 5,68,789 FII 22.6 21.9 21.8
Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22
Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics

(%) 1M 3M 12M (YE Mar) FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Absolute -7.2 -1.4 20.5 Net revenue (INR mn) 7,03,325 8,82,956 11,46,454 13,62,628 15,29,354
EBITDA (INR mn) 53,453 57,012 99,741 1,40,351 1,68,229
EBITDAM (%) 7.6 6.5 8.7 10.3 11.0
APAT (INR mn) 42,297 37,663 66,090 1,00,005 1,21,187
APATM (%) 6.0 4.3 5.8 7.3 7.9
EPS (INR) 140.1 124.7 218.8 331.1 401.3
PE (x) 61.8 69.4 39.6 26.1 21.6
Price/Book (x) 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.0 3.6
RoE (%) 8.5 7.1 11.8 16.2 17.5
RoCE (%) 10.4 8.8 15.3 21.1 22.8
Source: Company, MACM Research
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
December 07, 2022 Maruti Suzuki India
Story in Charts
Exhibit 1. Strong consumer sentiments (PV Retail clocking Exhibit 2. Household penetration at mere 8% v/s 30% in China
250k+ monthly for last 8 months)
(' 000)
16%
14%
360
11%
12%
270
8%
180 8%
6% 6%
4% 4%
90 3%
4% 3%
2%
1% 1%
0
Apr-22
Dec-20
Apr-21
Dec-21
Feb-21
Feb-22
Jun-21
Aug-21
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
0%
1998-99 2005-06 2015-16 2020-21
PV Retails Urban Rural India
Source: FADA, NFHS, MACM Research
Exhibit 3. UVs leading the way for the industry Exhibit 4. EV Penetration picking up, but still <1%
(Units)
100%
0.9%
25% 28% 28% 20,000 1.0%
34% 39%
75% 49% 51% 50% 50%
6%
6% 6%
5% 15,000 0.8%
4% 0.6%
50% 4% 4% 4% 4%
10,000 0.5%
69% 66% 66% 61% 57%
25% 48% 46% 46% 47% 0.2%
5,000 0.3%
0.1%
0% 0 0.0%
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E FY20 FY21 FY22 H1FY23
Utility Vehicles Vans Passenger Cars
EV Sales Penetration
Source: FADA, SIAM, MACM Research
Exhibit 5. PV Industry to grow at 12.5% CAGR over FY22-25E Exhibit 6. Passenger Cars to outperform over FY23E-25E
50%
40%
(' 000)
30%
29%
CAGR 6.2% CAGR -3.1% CAGR 12.5%

6,000 50%
21%
30%
19%
24.0%
12%
4,500 13.2% 25%

9%
8%
7.2% 9.2% 7.9%

6%
7.7% 6.7%
6%
4%
3.9% 10%
3%
2.7%
2%
2%
0%
-2.2%
-6.0%
3,000 0%
-17.9%
-10%
-5%
1,500 -25%
-24%
-9%
2,711
2,504
2,601
2,790
3,048
3,288
3,377
2,774
3,069
3,806
4,099
4,374
-30%
0 -50%
FY20
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
FY17
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
Domestic PV Industry Volumes YoY Growth (RHS) Passenger Cars Utility Vehicles
Source: SIAM, MACM Research
Mirae Asset Capital Markets (India) Pvt. Ltd 2

Exhibit 7. MSIL PV volumes to grow at 14.9% CAGR over Exhibit 8. UVs to account for 26.3% share in PV volumes
FY22-25E
10.5% 9.4% 10.3% 8.4% 8.1% 8.1% 8.0% 7.5% 7.4%

(' 000) 100%
2,400 22.6% 30% 13.6% 15.4% 15.3% 16.6% 17.7% 21.8% 22.4%
25.4% 26.3%
13.8% 75%
13.2%
10.6% 9.2%
1,800 5.3% 13%
2.9%
50%
-8.5%
1,200 -5% 75.9% 75.1% 74.4% 75.0% 74.2%
70.0% 69.6% 67.1% 66.4%
-18.2%
25%
600 -23%
1,632
1,444
1,643
1,730
1,414
1,294
1,332
1,848
2,018
0%
0 -40%
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
MSIL Domestic PV Volumes YoY Growth (RHS) Vans Utitlity Vehicles Passenger Cars
Exhibit 9. MSIL to recoup lost market share to 46.1% in Exhibit 10. Revenue to grow at 20.1% CAGR over FY22-25E
FY25E
62.6% 62.2% 63.6% 65.1% 65.2% 65.5%

56.8% 58.0% (INR Bn)
52.1%
29.8%
25.5%
2,000 40%
18.9%
18.2%
17.2%
51.2% 51.0%
12.2%
47.4% 50.0% 47.7% 46.1%
43.4% 42.9% 45.1% 1,500
7.8%
20%
-7.0%
-12.1%
25.7% 27.5% 28.1% 24.9% 24.4%

1,000 0%
21.6% 19.5% 19.0% 22.9%
500 -20%
1,363
1,146
1,529
680
798
860
756
703
883
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
0 -40%
FY21
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
Passenger Cars (%) Utility Vehicles (%)
Passenger Vehicles (%)
Net Sales (INR bn) YoY Growth (%)
Exhibit 11. Margins to expand 450bps over FY22-25E Exhibit 12. PAT to grow at 47.6% CAGR over FY22-25E
(INR ' 000/Vehicle)

(INR bn)
80 15% 15% 18%
140
130%
75.5%
13%
51.3%
60 14%
10% 11%
37.0%
10% 105 80%

21.2%
9%
40 8% 9%
5.1%
-11.0%
-2.9%
6% 70
-24.7%
-25.1%
30%
20 5%
35 -20%
66 68 59 47 37 34 50 63 69
100
121
74
77
75
57
42
38
66
0 0%
0 -70%
FY22
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY24E
FY23E
FY25E
EBITDA Per Vehicle (INR) EBITDA Margin (RHS) PAT (INR Bn) YoY Growth (RHS)

Domestic Passenger Vehicle Industry to grow at 12.5%

CAGR over FY22-25E
On-going recovery to continue for the PV industry

The domestic passenger vehicle industry volumes have disappointed (0.1% CAGR) over
FY17-22 due to number of challenges faced by the industry. After reaching its peak volume in
FY19 (3.4 mn) the industry witnessed two consecutive years of decline (-17.9%/-2.2% in
FY20/FY21) due to multiple headwinds which include i) weak economic growth ii) stringent
financing conditions iii) increased cost of ownership due to regulatory changes (BS-VI, safety
norms, insurance cost etc.), iv) COVID-19 pandemic which not only affected demand but also
led to supply-side disruption.
The industry witnessed healthy recovery in FY22 despite being marred by second wave of
COVID and supply side disruption. The domestic volumes registered a 13% growth in FY22
(still 9% below peak FY19 volumes) which was led by improving economic conditions, low
base, strong pent-up demand, increased preference towards personal mobility and ease in
semi-conductor shortage. Even in H1FY23, the growth momentum strengthened as volumes
grew by 39.5% YoY. This was led by considerable ease in semi-conductor shortage, strong
pent-up demand, and new launches. The festive season demand was strong with PV sales
touching 456k in the 42 day period which was 34% (+18% over pre-COVID festive sales) higher
than previous year, indicating strong consumer sentiments.
Going forward, we expect the ongoing recovery to continue for the industry on the back of
strong order backlog (~0.8 mn vehicles), continued shift towards personal mobility and further
easing of supply-side issues. We expect the PV volumes to clock its highest ever volumes at 3.8
mn vehicles in FY23E registering a growth of 24%. Moreover, we expect some of these factors
to contribute to growth in FY24E in addition to the structural growth drivers for the industry.
Exhibit 13: Strong order backlog for OEMs

OEM Order backlog (PVs)
Maruti Suzuki 388,000
M&M 256,000
Tata Motors 100,000
Total 744,000
Source: Company data, MACM Research
Exhibit 14. PV retails clocking 250k+ for past 8 months Exhibit 15. Strong Festive season PV sales
(' 000) (' 000)
360 500 447 456
386
270 375 340
180
250
90
125
0
Apr-22
Dec-20
Apr-21
Dec-21
Feb-21
Feb-22
Jun-21
Aug-21
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
0
2019 2020 2021 2022
2019 2020 2021 2022
PV Retails
Source: FADA, MACM Research

Structural growth drivers in place for PV industry

The PV industry is less cyclical compared to other segments of Auto sector but nonetheless,
the industry usually sees an upcycle for about 3-5 years followed by a slowdown which lasts
for ~1-2 years. We believe FY22 is the start of a new upcycle after nearly two years of
downturn. We expect the current upcycle to continue over the next 2-3 years on a low base of
FY21 led by near term growth drivers including strong order backlog, increased preference
towards personal mobility, ease in supply side issues and higher replacement demand.
Moreover, the long-term structural growth drivers remain well in place for the domestic
passenger vehicle industry.
Exhibit 16. Domestic PV Industry Growth (% YoY)

48.7
50
Slowdown in
consumption due to
Overall
the economic
Economic
35 downturn globally
Elevated slowdown,
27.6 28.2
25.7 fuel prices NBFC crisis &
Economic 20.7 hampered Covid-19
slowdown 17.7 demand for
20
cars. 13.2
12.3
9.3 7.9
7.7 7.2
4.8 4.7 3.9 2.7
5 0.2
1.8
-2.2 -2.2
-10 -5.9 -6.1
FY16
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
Domestic PV Industry Growth Rate (% YoY)
Low penetration of cars: The PV industry has registered CAGR of 8% over FY02-22 outpacing
the GDP growth by nearly 1.8x. Despite this, the penetration of cars continues to remain
abysmally low in India as compared to major economies. India has less than 30 cars per 1000
people which is lower compared to most of the advanced as well as emerging economies. At
the household level, despite the sharp jump over the last two decades, the penetration of car
stands at 8% (v/s China at 30% and US at 92%) with urban at 13.8% and rural at a mere 4.4%.
Exhibit 17. India has 30 cars per 1000 people Exhibit 18. Household penetration of cars (%)
(Cars per 1,000)

16%
14%
800 750
625 11%
12%
562
600
492 479 472
8%
8%
400 6% 6%
200 4% 4%
200 4% 3% 3%
30 2%
1% 1%
0
0%
Germany
France
China
Japan
Kingdom
India
Italy
USA
United
1998-99 2005-06 2015-16 2020-21
Urban Rural India
Source: NFHS, Cartrade RHP, MACM Research

Increasing affordability: Affordability has restricted car ownership in India and hence 2-
wheelers have higher penetration levels as compared to cars. However, over the years, rising
per capita income and healthy GDP growth has resulted in increased preference towards car
as compared to 2-wheelers (FY02-22 PV CAGR 7.9% v/s 2-W CAGR 6%). India’s per capita
income (constant prices) has risen at a CAGR of 7.9% over FY05-22 while PV volumes grew by
6.4%, suggesting strong correlation with per capita income as well as GDP growth. While the
pandemic impacted the income of the lower income household in the last two years, we
expect it to bounce back as the economy returns to normalcy. In the medium-long term, the
government’s constant efforts towards reviving economic growth and improving household
income especially in rural areas would aid growth for the industry. Additionally, favorable
demographics and rapid urbanization are also key catalysts of growth for the industry.
Exhibit 19. High co-relation between GDP and Domestic PV Growth (%)
(%)
20 30
10 18
0 5
-10 -8
-20 -20
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
GDP Growth Domestic PV Growth (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, SIAM, MACM Research
Exhibit 20. Similar growth rate between Per Capita GDP, and PV volumes (%)
(%)
30
18
-8
-20
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
Per Capita GDP Growth Domestic PV Growth
Source: SIAM, RBI, MACM Research

Interest rates on the rise, but not worrisome yet: The easy availability of financing has
been one of the key growth driver for PV demand as it has made purchases more affordable
to consumers. This has led to an increase in financing penetration to nearly ~80%. Therefore,
movement in interest rates becomes an important determinant for PV demand. The recent
rise in interest rates is a cause of concern for the industry as it could impact the ongoing
buoyant demand environment. However, despite the recent hikes the lending rates remains
below the last growth phase of PVs (FY16-19).
Exhibit 21. 1 Year Median MCLR Rate for SCB (%)
(%)
10.0
9.5
9.3
8.8
8.3
8.5
7.9
7.8
7.3
FY17-19 Volume CAGR: 5.3%
7.0
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Source: RBI, MACM Research
Stable petrol & diesel prices – In a price sensitive market like India, cost of operating a
vehicle matters a lot to consumers and hence movement in fuel prices has a direct impact on
passenger vehicles volumes. Over the years, petrol prices have continued to inch higher from
INR 64-65 / liter in 2016 to INR 102-103 / liter currently, which has impacted passenger vehicle
volumes especially in the entry level segment. In our view, the impact of fuel price increase is
felt comparatively lesser in the utility vehicle segment demand (which constitutes ~50% of
industry volumes) due to better affordability. Moreover, post a sharp surge in 2020, petrol
prices have remained stable in the range of INR 100-110 for last 18 months which is positive.
And with crucial state elections next year and general election in 2024, we believe fuel price
hikes going ahead could be limited thereby aiding growth for the PV industry.
Exhibit 22. Rise in Petrol Price impacts PV demand Exhibit 23. Fuel Prices have remained stable over last 18m
30% (INR)
120
18%
100
5%
80 Petrol and Diesel

-8%
Prices have been
stable for last
60
-20% 18 months
FY06
FY20
FY04
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
FY22
40
Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21 Oct-22
Avg. Petrol Price Change YoY (%)
Domestic PV Sales Change YoY (%) Avg. Diesel Price (INR) Avg. Petrol Price (INR)
Source: Bloomberg, MACM Research

Higher replacement demand: The millennial workforce has changed user behavior
leading to reduced ownership period for cars. The average ownership period is reduced
from 8-10 years in 2009 to 3-5 years in 2019. Therefore, considering the 9.7mn
passenger vehicle sold between FY17-19 and factoring in a delayed purchase due to
COVID, we believe a sizable number would start contributing to the PV volumes over the
next 2-3 years thereby aiding growth for the industry.
Domestic PV Industry to grow at 12.5% CAGR over FY22-25E

Post a healthy recovery in FY22 which again was marred by second lockdown and semi-
conductor shortage, we expect the PV industry to surpass its FY19 peak volumes in FY23 and
register 24% growth. This would be driven by pent up demand, strong order back log (0.8+
mn PVs), and ease in supply side issues leading to ramp up in production. While some of these
factors could spill over in FY24 as well, we expect structural growth drivers including pick-up in
economic activity, higher replacement demand, increasing affordability, low penetration,
rising disposable income and higher aspiration to drive growth for the industry. Moreover, the
government’s constant focus on improving rural income and urbanization are also key long
term growth drivers. Considering these factors, we expect domestic PV volumes to grow at a
CAGR of 12.5% over FY22-25E.
Exhibit 24. Domestic PV volumes to grow at 12.5% CAGR over FY22-25E
(' 000)
6,000 CAGR 6.2% CAGR -3.1% CAGR 12.5% 50%

24.0%
4,500 13.2% 25%
7.2% 9.2% 7.9% 7.7% 6.7%
3.9% 2.7%
-2.2%
-6.0%
3,000 0%
-17.9%
1,500 -25%
3,069
2,504
2,601
2,790
3,048
3,288
3,377
2,774
2,711
3,806
4,099
4,374
0 -50%
FY17
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
Domestic PV Industry Volumes YoY Growth (RHS)

Rising share of UVs driving premiumization

One trend which has emerged in the PV industry is increased consumer preference towards
Utility Vehicles (UV). The UV segment has outpaced PV growth in each of the last three years
taking its share in PVs to 49% in FY22 v/s 28% in FY19. Also notably, the UV segment has
registered growth for last three consecutive years despite multiple headwinds faced by the
auto industry including the pandemic. This has been led by three factors which include, i)
gradual rise in premiumization, ii) slew of new launches from new entrants like MG Hector, Kia
Motors and from incumbent players like Hyundai, Mahindra and Tata Motors and lastly iii) the
fact that pandemic least affected the upper income class which led to persistent buying.
Exhibit 25. PV Industry Segmental Share (%)
100%
21% 21% 21% 25% 28% 28%
34% 39%
75% 8% 7% 6% 49%
6%
6% 6%
5%
4%
50% 4%
71% 72% 73% 69% 66% 66% 61% 57%

25% 48%
0%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
We strongly believe that the premiumization trend would continue in the long run led by
rising disposable and higher aspiration. However, we expect the small car segment to
outperform over FY24E-25E. This is because the pandemic largely affected the low- and
middle-income household which resulted in delay in purchasing decision thereby extending
the replacement cycle. However, with economic activity normalizing and showing signs of pick
up, we should see these customers return to the market. Therefore, we expect from FY24
onwards the passenger car segment would outperform at least for the next two years. We
expect passenger car volumes to grow at CAGR 8.2% whereas UV volumes to grow at 6.2%
CAGR over FY23E-25E.
Exhibit 26. Passenger Cars to outperform over FY24-25E… Exhibit 27. …Increasing its share to 46.8% by FY25E
100%
50%
40%
25% 28% 28%

30%
29%
34% 39%
75%
21%
30% 49% 51% 50% 50%

19%
6%
6% 6%
12%
5%
9%
4%
8%
6%
6%
4%
10%
3%
2%
2%
50%
0%
4% 4% 4% 4%
69% 66% 66%

-10% 61% 57%
-5%
25% 48% 46% 47%

-24%
46%
-9%
-30%
0%
FY25E
FY23E
FY24E
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E

Passenger Cars Utility Vehicles

EV-fication still a few years away for India
Global EV penetration on the rise

EV cars have witnessed strong traction touching record high volumes in 2021 despite the
pandemic and supply side challenges. Globally, ~6.6 million EV cars were sold in 2021 as
compared to just 0.12 million back in 2012. The EV sales have more than doubled in 2021
registering a growth of nearly 121% YoY. Even in 2022, the global EV sales continue to remain
strong with total of 4.3 million EVs were sold in H12022 which is an increase of 62% as
compared to H1 2021. EV markets have been expanding rapidly and accounts for nearly 9% of
the global car market in 2021, which is nearly 4x the market share in 2019. The success in EVs
have been led by multiple factors including, i) sustained policy support from the government,
ii) increased focus of carmakers to electrify their fleet, iii) more car models to choose from for
consumers, iv) rapid expansion in charging infrastructure. The increase in EV sales in 2021 was
primarily led by China which nearly trebled its sales and sold nearly half of EV cars (3.3 million)
sold globally. The growth was driven by strong support from the government in terms of
subsidies and incentives coupled with decrease in price gap with conventional cars, rapid
increase in charging infrastructure, decline in manufacturing cost and availability of more
models for consumers.
Exhibit 28. EV Car Sales Globally Exhibit 29. EV penetration continues to rise globally
(' 000)
17%
6,600
16%
18%
7,000
14%
5,250
10%
3,300
9%
2,980
3,500 9%
2,284
2,080
2,040
5%
5%
5%
1,371
4%
4%
1,180
1,090
1,060
3%
1,750 5%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
760
630
580
567
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
381
360
1%
339
325
295
294
230
209
194
160
0 0%
USA China Europe World USA China Europe World
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
i
Source: IEA, MACM Research
Exhibit 30. EV Models grew at 34% CAGR Exhibit 31. Rapid Increase in charging infrastructure globally
(Models) (' 000)
1,760
480 450 1,800

1,300
1,150
1,350
360
900
810
900
540
240
510
440
356
335
274
270
450
213
212
152
141
133
122
114
120
99
77
78
54
43
38
0
0 USA China Europe World
2015 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Exhibit 32. Global OEM plans for electrification

Global OEMs Target or plan for electrification
Toyota Announced the roll-out of 30 BEV models and a goal of reaching 3.5 million annual sales of electric cars by 2030.
All-electric vehicles of Volkswagen would exceed 70% of European and 50% of Chinese and US sales by 2030, and
Volkswagen
that by 2040, nearly 100% should be zero emissions vehicles.
Expects one-third of its sales to be fully electric by 2026 and 50% by 2030, building on the success of its F-150
Ford
electric model, and to move to all-electric in Europe by 2030.
Volvo Committed to becoming a fully electric car company by 2030
BMW Aims for 50% of its vehicles sold to be fully electric by 2030 or earlier.
Mercedes Announced that from 2025, all newly launched vehicles will be fully electric.
Aims for 30 EV models and for installed BEV production capacity of 1 million units in North America by 2025 and for
General Motors
carbon neutrality in 2040
BYD Announced that it would only produce BEVs and PHEVs from April 2022 onwards
India EV penetration rising but still low; Low-cost models to

increase adoption
While India EV sales have witnessed strong growth in FY22 and H1FY23, the penetration
continues to remain low at less than 1% in contrast to the global BEV sales. We highlight some
of the issues which is delaying EV penetration in India which include, i) Substantial price
differential (between ICE and EVs) making total cost of ownership unviable for customers at
present, ii) Less options available (less participation from key players iii) Lack of charging
infrastructure. While the government (both central and state) has taken several measures to
boost EV adoption including subsidies, road tax and registration fees exemption, and income
tax benefit. We believe it would take 3-4 years to see a meaningful pick up in EV penetration in
India.
Exhibit 33. EV Sales in India and penetration levels (%)
(Units)
0.9%
20,000 1.0%
15,000 0.8%
0.6%
10,000 0.5%
5,000 0.2% 0.3%

0.1%
0 0.0%
FY20 FY21 FY22 H1FY23
EV Sales Penetration
Source: FADA, SIAM, MACM Research

Factors delaying EV adoption in India

High cost of ownership: EVs in India cost ~1.5x higher than the ICE variant making the initial
cost more expensive for consumers. One of the major reasons is the high price of the battery
which accounts for nearly 35-40% of the total EV cost. In the long run this cost is expected to
moderate to 18% by 2030 on the back increasing adoption of EV globally, technological
advancement, and declining manufacturing costs. However, at present the high initial cost of
acquisition is a major barrier for mass EV adoption in India.
We ran a scenario analysis comparing the ICE (Petrol) v/s its EV counterpart. At present
calculation, EV does not make economic sense for people who drive less than 30 km every
day. If one commutes around 50 km, then total cost of ownership shifts in favor of EVs.
However, there are a couple of things which still shifts the needle back to ICE which include a)
Uncertainty regarding resale value of EVs (if batteries have a warranty of 8 years and accounts
for 40% of vehicle cost, we believe the buyer would be skeptical purchasing a used car at the
end of 5th year), b) the difference amount between the initial cost if invested in Fixed Deposit
at an interest rate of 6% assuming for 4 years would yield a cumulative interest which would
be higher than the income tax benefit one can claim by purchasing an EV, c) and lastly the
insurance cost (remaining two years) for EVs at present is higher by ~30% than the ICE
counterpart.
Exhibit 34. Ex-showroom Price EV vs. Non-EV

Model EV Variant ICE Variant
Tata Nexon INR 1.6 mn - 1.8 mn INR 877K - 1.69 mn
Tata Nexon EV Prime INR 1.6 mn - 1.9 mn
Tata Nexon EV Max INR 1.94 mn - 2.13 mn
Tata Tiago INR 905K - 1.26 mn INR 612K - 891K
Tata Tigor INR 1.32 mn - 1.46 mn INR 700K - 997K
MG ZS EV INR 2.4 mn - 2.82 mn
Hyundai Kona Electric INR 2.52 mn - 2.54 mn
Source: Carwale.com, MACM Research
Exhibit 35. ICE v/s EV Cost Economics

Charges Tata Nexon (XMA S) Tata Nexon EV Prime (XM) Difference
Ex Showroom Price (New Delhi) 994,900 1,499,000 50.7%
Registration Charges 81,643 12,730 -84.4%
Insurance 50,638 65,930 30.2%
Initial Cost of Vehicle 1,127,181 1,577,660 40.0%
Cost Matrix under different scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Km Driven Daily 15 30 50
Total Km Driven in 5 Years 27,375 54,750 91,250
Efficiency 14 km / liter & 240 km / Charge
Fuel Cost Incurred @INR 97 for petrol 1,89,670 3,79,339 6,32,232
Charging cost @ INR 5 per kWh 17,109 34,219 57,031
Service Costs (5 Years) ICE @10k annually 50,000 50,000 50,000
Service Costs (5 Years) EV @ 6k annually 30,000 30,000 30,000

Total Cost of Ownership ICE 1,366,851 1,556,520 1,809,413
Total Cost of Ownership EV 1,624,769 1,641,879 1,664,691
Petrol Benefit 257,919 85,358 -144,722
Source: Carwale.com, MACM Research

Lack of available options: The EV market is currently dominated by Tata Motors which
commands nearly 87% market share. Currently, India has only eight pure EV models (<30
lakhs) and amongst OEMs, Tata Motors (5 models), MG (1 Model), and Hyundai (1 Model) are
some of the well-recognized names in this space. Globally, the increase in number of models
has been associated with increased sales volume. China which sold the most EVs globally in
2021, has the broadest portfolio with 300 models followed by 184 in Europe and nearly 65 in
US. Back home, most OEMs have planned aggressive launches over the coming years to
increase EV adoption in India thereby giving customers more options to choose from.
However, lack of options in EVs limits EV adoption India.
Exhibit 36. Six pure EV models in market currently
Tata Nexon – 312 km Tata Nexon EV Max - 437 km Tata Tigor EV – 306 km
Tata Tiago EV - 250 to 315 km Hyundai Kona Electric - 484 km MG ZS EV - 419 to 461 km
Exhibit 37. Indian OEM plans for EVs

Company Plans
Hyundai India aims to have a line-up consisting of 6 EV models by 2028. At

present, Hyundai has a single EV model in India - the Hyundai Kona electric
Hyundai
SUV with another brand-new model - the Hyundai IONIQ 5 - expected to be
launched in March 2023.
M&M expects to sell 2 lakh electric vehicles by FY-27 which translates into
20-30% of its volumes. As a result, M&M will have a portfolio of 5 electric
Mahindra & Mahindra
SUVs by FY27, with the first four expected to hit the market between
December 2024 and 2026.
Maruti is expected to launch its first EV model in 2025. Multiple EV models

Maruti
would follow in due course once the company launches its first EV in 2025.
By 2030, Tata Motors expects 50% of its PV sales volumes to be driven by

EVs. Tata Motors plans to launch a new EV at least in every two years from
Tata Motors
2025. In the very near term, the company has lined up the Tata Altroz EV
model to be launched on January 15, 2023.
The company will launch a fully built EV model in the next 12-18 months by
Skoda India
bringing in a readymade unit from Europe.

Charging Infrastructure needs a big boost: While the passenger vehicle EV models have
healthy driving range (Tata Nexon – 312 km, Tata Tigor - 306 km, MG ZS – 419 – 461 km), the
lack of charging facility across the country has been a deterrent to EV adoption in India. India’s
public charging stations network is still at a very nascent stage as compared to China which
has more than 1.1 million charging stations. However, the government has taken several
measures to boost the charging infrastructure under FAME -1 and FAME – 2 policies. It has
sanctioned 2,877 charging stations in 68 cities across 25 states/UTs under Phase-II of FAME
India Scheme which is expected to be completed by FY24. Under FAME – 1, the entire 479
charging stations are operational whereas 53 off 2,877 under FAME – 2 is operational. A
robust charging infrastructure including slow and fast would help to reduce range anxiety
amongst consumers. In the medium to long run, we believe more government and private
investment would be needed especially in tier 2 and beyond cities to build the charging
infrastructure and boost consumer confidence.
Exhibit 38. Charging Infrastructure under FAME – 2
(Stations)
400
317
281
278
266
235
300
211
207
205
172
141
138
200
72
70
100
50
40
37
29
25
25
20
18
10
10
10
10
0
Andama & Nicobar

Meghalaya
Uttarakhand
J&K
Assam
Delhi
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
Himanchal Pradesh
Puducherry
Haryana
Chattisgarh
Andhra Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Kerala
Rajasthan
Telangana
Chandigarh
Bihar
Sikkim
Odisha
Karnataka
Gujarat
West Bengal
Maharashtra
Source: GoI, MACM Research
Government measures positive, but more needed to boost EV

adoption
The government has taken several steps to boost EV sales in India in the recent past which has
led to increased adoption of EV two-wheelers. Moreover, most governments have targeted to
electrify the commercial fleets over the next ten years. However, in cars while the penetration
is gradually rising, the subsidy is capped on number of cars sold (Delhi has subsidy benefit for
first 1000 cars sold which has already been achieved) which could soon evade for most states
(unless extended) thereby keeping the price difference between EV and ICE intact. However,
lower GST rate of 5% and road tax and registration exemption, income tax benefit are still
some of the benefits for EVs as compared to ICEs.
In addition to providing demand incentives, the government has also announced a PLI
scheme for the sector proposes to provide financial incentives of up to 18% to boost domestic
manufacturing of advanced automotive technology products and attract investments in the
automotive manufacturing value chain. The initial outlay for the scheme is INR 259 billion. We
believe more steps on both demand as well as supply front would be needed from the
government to accelerate EV adoption in India.

Exhibit 39: Demand-side incentive structure provided by states

Target Volume Registration Fee Road Tax
State Incentive per KwH
4-W (units) Exemption Exemption
INR 5,000/kWh upto INR 150k with a maximum ex-

Maharashtra 10,000 100% 100%
factory price of INR 1.5 mn
INR 4,000/kWh with a maximum ex-factory price of

Manipur 2,500 100% 100%
INR 1.5 mn
Delhi INR 10,000/kWh up to INR 150k 1,000 100% 100%
INR 10,000/kWh up to INR 150k with a maximum

West Bengal 35,000 100% 100%
ex-factory price of INR 1.5 mn
INR 10,000/kWh max incentive 150k(for maximum

Assam 25,000 100% 100%
exfactory price of INR 1.5 mn)
INR 10,000/kWh for a vehicle upto 150k with a

Gujarat 20,000 100% 100%
maximum ex-factory price of INR 1.5 mn
Andhra Pradesh - - 100% 100%
Kerala - 1 million (industry) 100% 100%
Exempted for
Madhya Pradesh - - 100%
9,000 e-cars
•100% for the first •100% for the

5,000 e-4W first 5,000 e-4W
(commercial PV) (commercial PV)
Telangana - 10,000
•100% for the first •100% for the
5,000 e-4W PVs first 5,000 e-4W
(Private) PVs (Private)
Uttar Pradesh - - 100% 100%

Source: E-Amrit, MACM Research
CNG / Hybrids to bridge the gap to EV transition

Given the concerns highlighted above, we believe the meaningful increase in EV adoption is
still 3-4 years away. Meanwhile, amid tightening emission norms, CNG and Hybrids would
bridge the transition to EVs. In the medium to long term, we believe, the above-mentioned
concerns would start to alleviate with higher government’s focus on increasing EV penetration
in cars (30% by 2030), launch of new models in EVs giving consumers more options to choose
from and higher cost benefit given that battery cost is expected to moderate to 18% of vehicle
as compared to 35-40% currently. And lastly, a robust charging infrastructure using cleaner
fuel would reduce range anxiety thereby boosting EV adoption.

Industry leader MSIL to strengthen its foothold in PVs
Adapting to changing consumer preferences

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) has largely maintained its leadership position in the domestic passenger
vehicle segment (market share of 43.4% in FY22) with bouts of underperformance in between.
The strong foothold in the PV segment has been led by its solid product portfolio, unmatched
distribution network and strong brand connect. Maruti Suzuki provides an excellent value
proposition to consumers as it offers various benefits over peers such as low ownership cost,
fuel economy, low maintenance and service and healthy resale value. If we delve further into
sub segment, MSIL has continuously strengthened its market share over FY12-22 in the
passenger cars segment to 63.6% which largely constitute of small cars. However, one
segment where the company has underperformed is the fast-growing utility vehicle segment
which currently constitutes 50% of the overall industry. As mentioned in our industry part, the
rise in UV share has been led by gradual rise in premiumization on the back of increasing
affordability and changing consumer preferences. Moreover, aggressive new launches from
new and incumbent players have also provided more options for consumers.
What led to market share loss for MSIL?

MSIL has consistently lost market share in the UV segment from 28.1% in FY19 to 19.5% in
FY22. As a result, the PV market share has also declined from 51.2% in FY19 to 43.4%. One of
the primary reasons is the lack of new product launches in the utility vehicle segment and
intense competition from new and incumbent players. Moreover, competitors feature loaded
models (Sunroof, Digital dashboard, Automatic Transmission) and differentiated looks has
overshadowed Maruti’s value proposition leading to market share loss for the company.
Exhibit 40. MSIL market share in PVs, UVs and Passenger Cars (FY13-22) (%)
62.6% 62.2% 63.6%

56.8% 58.0%
51.8% 52.7% 52.1%
49.8%
46.0%
50.0% 51.2% 51.0%

46.8% 47.4% 47.7%
45.0% 43.4%
42.1%
39.4%
27.5% 28.1%
25.7% 24.9%
21.6% 19.5%
14.3% 16.1%
11.6% 12.4%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Passenger Cars (%) Utility Vehicles (%) Passenger Vehicles (%)

MSIL faced similar situation between FY09-12…

The company faced a similar situation between FY09-12 where it lost market share from 46.5%
in FY09 to 38.4% in FY12. There were number of factors which resulted in market share loss
including i) Deregulation of petrol and diesel prices which led to huge gap, resulting in
consumers preferring diesel over petrol (MSIL portfolio skewed towards petrol), ii) Aggressive
new launches from Honda, Hyundai, Toyota in the small car segment leading to increased
competitive intensity, iii) the company suffered unfortunate labour unrest situation at its
Manesar facility impacting supply, iv) MSIL lack of presence in the UV segment which
outpaced passenger cars significantly in FY11 & FY12.
…And the king returned with a bang

What transpired in the next seven years post FY12 was a delight for investors as the company
staged a strong comeback in terms of market share and financial performance. MSIL
consistently gained market share each year to 51.2% in FY19. It also posted stellar financial
performance during this period with Volume/Sales/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of
7.3%/13.4%/23.5%/24.3%. The stock price delivered strong performance compared to Nifty 50
during this period yielding 26% CAGR v/s 12% for Nifty 50. The factors which led to this
performance included i) several new launches from Maruti like Ertiga, Ciaz, Vitarra Brezza,
Baleno which aided market share gains in their respective segment, ii) gradual shift back
towards petrol vehicles where MSIL has a strong foothold, iii) company’s increased focus on
premiumization as evident from the new launches and the launch of its retail channel Nexa
which offers premium experience to its customers. The premiumization focus from Maruti has
led to 5% CAGR in realizations for MSIL over FY12-19 with healthy operating margins of
around 15% (FY16-18).
Exhibit 41. MSIL performance over FY12-19

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 CAGR
S-Cross,
Celerio,
New Launches Ertiga Ciaz Baleno, Ignis -
Stingray
Vitara Brezza
Swift, Wagon-R, S-Cross, WagonR,
Swift,
A-Star, Alto 800, Celerio, Ertiga, Baleno,
New Variants Dzire and Baleno RS -
and SX4 and Dzire and Vitara Brezza,
Alto K-10
Dzire Ritz Swift and Ciaz
MSIL PV Volumes ('000) 1,006 1,051 1,054 1,171 1,305 1,444 1,643 1,730 8.0%
Volume Growth YoY (%) -11.2% 4.4% 0.3% 11.1% 11.5% 10.6% 13.8% 5.3%
Domestic Industry PV Volumes ('000) 2,629 2,665 2,504 2,601 2,790 3,048 3,288 3,377 3.6%
Market Share (%) 38.3% 39.4% 42.1% 45.0% 46.8% 47.4% 50.0% 51.2%
MSIL Volumes 1,134 1,171 1,155 1,292 1,429 1,569 1,780 1,862 7.3%
Volume Growth YoY (%) -10.8% 3.3% -1.4% 11.9% 10.6% 9.8% 13.4% 4.7%
Realizations (INR) 3,13,904 3,72,090 3,79,137 3,86,645 4,02,576 4,33,729 4,48,212 4,61,867 5.7%
Growth YoY (%) 9.0% 18.5% 1.9% 2.0% 4.1% 7.7% 3.3% 3.0%
Net Sales (INR mn) 3,55,870 4,35,880 4,37,920 4,99,710 5,75,380 6,80,350 7,97,630 8,60,200 13.4%
Growth YoY (%) -2.8% 22.5% 0.5% 14.1% 15.1% 18.2% 17.2% 7.8%
EBITDA (INR mn) 25,130 42,290 51,870 67,130 88,840 1,03,520 1,20,620 1,09,990 23.5%
Margins (%) 7.1% 9.7% 11.8% 13.4% 15.4% 15.2% 15.1% 12.8%
PAT (INR mn) 16,352 23,919 27,830 37,112 53,643 73,502 77,218 75,006 24.3%
Growth YoY (%) -29% 46% 16% 33% 45% 37% 5% -3%
Stock Price Returns (%) 7.0% -5.1% 53.9% 87.5% 0.5% 61.9% 47.3% -24.7%

Can MSIL repeat its stellar show?

The concerns which have been worrying investors regarding MSIL is its ability to cater to
premium customers. We believe these concerns has been well addressed by MSIL as evident
from the new launches made recently. While MSIL has predominantly maintained its edge
over peers in key factors like low cost of ownership, fuel economy, resale, and services, it has
shown tremendous improvement and, in some ways, even outdone its peers in terms of
features and safety. Moreover, MSIL focus on hybrid amid tightening emission norms and
high cost of ownership for EVs gives a clear edge over peers. At present there are only two
other players which have hybrid (electric + petrol) in their portfolio (Honda & MG) apart from
MSIL and Toyota.
In addition, portfolio gaps in the UV segment have been one of the key reasons for market
share loss which has also been addressed by the two launches made recently (Brezza in the
compact SUV and Grand Vitara in the mid-size SUV segment). Moreover, two more launches
(Jimny and Baleno Crossover) in UVs are expected in 2023. Additionally, Toyota is working on a
C-MPV which it intends to share with Maruti Suzuki and is likely to be placed between the
Maruti Suzuki Ertiga and the Toyota Innova Crysta. All these factors coupled with waning new
launches from key competitors (Kia, Tata Motors, & Hyundai) should help MSIL recoup some
of its lost market share in the UV segment. We expect MSIL domestic PV volumes to grow at a
CAGR of 14.9% over FY22-25E led by 22.1% growth in UV segment and 12.8% for the
Passenger Car segment. While for industry we expect the passenger cars to outperform, for
MSIL we expect UVs to outperform given the new launches and constitute 26.3% volume
share by FY25E.
Exhibit 42. MSIL Domestic PV volumes to grow at a CAGR of 14.9% over FY22-25E
(' 000)
2,400 22.6% 30%
13.8% 13.2%
11.1% 11.5% 10.6% 9.2%
1,800 5.3% 13%
2.9%
0.3%
-8.5%
1,200 -5%
-18.2%
600 -23%
1,054
1,171
1,305
1,444
1,643
1,730
1,414
1,294
1,332
1,632
1,848
2,018
0 -40%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
MSIL Domestic PV Volumes YoY Growth (RHS)
Exhibit 43. Share of UVs to increase to 26.3% by FY25E

100%
9.4% 10.3% 8.4% 8.1% 8.1% 8.0% 7.5% 7.4%
15.4% 15.3% 16.6% 17.7% 21.8% 22.4% 25.4% 26.3%

75% 3.6% 2.7% 1.8% 1.1%
1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9%
50% 45.5% 50.4% 55.7% 55.6%

52.9% 53.1% 51.1% 50.6%
25%
26.0% 21.3% 17.5% 17.5% 15.9% 15.4% 15.0% 14.8%
0%
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Mini Compact Mid size Utility vehicles Vans

Strong Product portfolio

MSIL offers a strong product offering to its customers across various segment, price range,
and style. It has a strong foothold in the entry level segment where the demand has been the
worst affected over the last three years due to overall economic slowdown and the pandemic.
Going forward, we expect the small car segment to outperform UVs over the next couple of
years on the back of improving economic conditions, waning impact of the pandemic, and low
penetration of cars in India. Given its dominant position in this segment, MSIL would be the
biggest beneficiary of this demand recovery. The recent and expected launches in UVs would
Maruti a complete player in the PV segment with a strong product portfolio. We expect MSIL
UV share to increase to 26.3% and market share recovery from 41.1% in H1FY23 to 46.1% by
FY25E. Moreover, the impact of implementation of phase 2 BS-VI norms would be limited on
MSIL given its zero models in diesel, where the price impact is expected to comparatively
much higher than petrol. Additionally, for most part of its portfolio, the transition has already
happened, therefore the price increase due to this would be minimal and limited to only few
models.
Exhibit 44. MSIL Top selling models across segments

Available Price Average Monthly
Car Segment Specification Key Competitors
Fuel Options (INR) Sales (FY22)
Alto
Engine-796 cc Hyundai Santro, Petrol INR 380K –
Mini 12.1k
Mileage-22 to 31.5 km/kg Renault Kwid CNG 562K
S-Presso
Engine-998 cc Hyundai Santro, Petrol INR 475K –
Mini 5.5k
Mileage- 24.44 to 32.73 km/kg Renault Kwid CNG 688K
Wagon R
Engine- 998 to 1197 cc Petrol INR 909K –
Compact Tata Tiago 15.7k
Mileage- 23.5 to 34 kmpl CNG 1.6 mn
Swift
Engine-1197 cc Hyundai Grand i10 Nios, Petrol INR 657K –
Compact 14.0k
Mileage- 22.38 to 30.9 km/kg Tiago NRG CNG 988K
Baleno Hyundai i20,

Engine - 1197 cc Petrol INR 733K -
Compact Tata Altroz, 12.2k
Mileage- 22.3 to 30.61 km/kg CNG 1.1mn
Volkswagen Polo
Dzire
Engine- 1197 cc Hyundai Aura, Honda Petrol INR 700K –
Compact 10.6k
Mileage- 23.2 to 24.1 kmpl Amaze, Tata Tigor CNG 1mn
Ertiga
Engine-1462 cc Renault Triber, Mahindra Petrol INR 959K –
UV 9.8k
Mileage- 20.3 to 26.1 km/kg Bolero Neo CNG 1.5mn
Brezza
Engine-1462 cc Hyundai Venue, INR 909K –
UV Petrol 9.5k
Mileage- 19.8 to 19.9 kmpl Kia Sonet, Tata Punch 1.6mn
Grand Vitarra
Mild & Strong
Engine- 1462 to 1490 cc Hyundai Creta, INR 1.23—
UV Hybrid (Electric + Newly Launched
Mileage- 20.58 to 27.97 kmpl Kia Seltos 2.29mn
Petrol)
Eeco
Engine- 999 cc Mileage- No direct competitors Petrol INR 578K –
Vans 9k
18.2 to 19.61 kmpl (96% market share) CNG 732K

Unmatched distribution network

MSIL has a strong and industry leading distribution network spread across 2150+ cities in
India. The company operates under three sales channel i.e Arena, Nexa and Commercial. Its
traditional channel, currently known as Arena is spread across 2,588 outlets (v/s 555 dealers
for Hyundai). This sales channel has also been upgraded to a youthful and modern
destination. In a bid to increase premiumization, the company launched its premium sales
channel Nexa in 2015 which provides a new experience of hospitality to customers. This
channel has seen a tremendous growth from 127 outlets covering 94 cities in FY16 to 410
covering 256 cities in FY22. Apart from its wide distribution network, the one thing which
gives comfort to its customers is its industry leading service network panned across 4,254
outlets (v/s 1,414 of Hyundai) in 2,134 cities. This extensive network not only provides vehicle
servicing but also include value added services such as Maruti Mobile support vehicles and on-
road assistance.
Exhibit 45. MSIL vast distribution network (Outlets)
(Outlets)
4,000
2,156
1,859 1,964 1,992 2,400
1,652 1,735
1,471 359
3,000 1,290 321 327
980 310 410 1,400
801 874 190 375 360
40 360
316
2,588
2,000 252
2,413
2,390
127
2,264
400
2,121
2,020
1,820
1,619
1,000 -600
1,310
1,204
1,100
0 -1,600
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Arena (Existing) Nexa Commercial Cities (RHS)
Exhibit 46. MSIL Service Network (Outlets)
(Outlets)
4,800 2,134 2,400

2,014
1,914
1,784
1,659
4,254
3,600 1,506 1,570 1,800

4,044
1,408 1,430 1,442 1,471

3,864
3,614
3,403
3,305
3,145
3,089
3,047
2,965
2,958
2,400 1,200
1,200 600
0 0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Service Outlets Cities (RHS)

Hybrids / CNGs to bridge the transition towards EVs

While other home-grown OEMs have sharpened focus on increasing EV penetration through
aggressive lineups, MSIL is currently betting big on Hybrid and CNG vehicles which we believe
is the appropriate strategy given the challenges faced around EVs with respect to high cost of
ownership, lack of charging infrastructure and limited options. The street concerns regarding
MSIL being a laggard in EVs is overdone given that EV penetration stands at 0.9% and is not
expected to rise substantially in the medium term. Also, notwithstanding that MSIL is
expected to launch its first EV in 2025.
Meanwhile, amid tightening emission norms, the company has increased focus on growing
CNG/hybrid volumes through addition of CNG variant in existing models and new launches in
hybrid category. However, we continue to believe the long-term play would be EVs for the
industry and CNGs/Hybrid would only act as a bridge to EV transition where MSIL is looking to
capitalize, till EV penetration picks up meaningfully.
The continued hikes in CNG prices up 81% in 21 months has reduced the price advantage of
CNG due to sharp decline in difference between petrol/diesel and CNG prices and higher
upfront cost of CNG vehicle. However, lower maintenance cost and higher fuel economy
(~1.5x of petrol variant) are still some of the advantages for CNG. The total cost of ownership
works to be similar between the petrol and CNG variant if driven 10,000 km annually for 5
years. The advantage in CNG however would be lower CO2 emission. Additionally, the shift
from CNG to BEV is still not economically viable firstly due to substantial increase in upfront
cost, lack of charging infrastructure (much lower compared to CNG stations, which is expected
to rise to 8,000 by 2024), and lack of small cars models because CNG is predominantly used
for commercial purposes.
Exhibit 47. MSIL CNG volumes and penetration Exhibit 48. India’s CNG Station network
(Units) (Stations)
1,332
5,000 1,400
280,000 30%
21.0%
16.6%
894
3,750 950
11.6%
210,000 20%
7.3%
6.0%
477
5.4%
5.1%
4.9%
4.6%
4.5%
140,000 10% 2,500 500

306
162 191
72 48 76
70,000 0%
104,895
106,444
157,954
234,196
167,000
51,215
62,996
59,858
73,907
74,597
1,250 50
1,071
1,233
1,424
1,730
2,207
3,101
4,433
0 -10%
947
995
0 -400
FY18
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
H1FY23
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
CNG Sales CNG Sales Penetration (RHS) Total No. of Stations No. of Stations Added
Exhibit 49. Comparison of CNG and Petrol Vehicles (Wagon R LXI (O) 5MT)
per 10,000 km
Fuel
Variant Ex-showroom Price (INR) Fuel Price Fuel Cost CO2
Efficiency
(INR) Emission
Petrol 5,47,500 24.35km/L INR 96.72/L 39,721 974kg
CNG 6,42,500 34.05km/kg INR 78.61/kg 23,087 805kg
Difference 95,000 - - -16,634 -169kg
Change -42% -17%


Increased focus from parent - Suzuki Motor Corporation

Suzuki MotorCorp (SMC) is the parent company of Maruti Suzuki holding 56.4%. It is an
integral part of Suzuki contributing nearly 37% of its revenue and 35% of its operating profit.
Over the past few years, we note that the parent entity has increased focus on MSIL as it has
taken several initiatives to make life easier for MSIL. Firstly, Suzuki Motorcorp through its
subsidiary SMG took the responsibility of incremental capacity expansion in Gujarat which has
an annual capacity of 0.75 million units. The arrangement is such that SMG would provide
vehicles to MSIL at no extra cost. The rationale for this arrangement is to let MSIL focus on
customer centric initiatives whereas Suzuki would take care of the capex.
Secondly, in addition to providing strong technological support, SMC’s partnership with

Toyota Motor Corporation, Japan has supported MSIL with new age technologies which
includes strong hybrid. The benefit of this partnership extends beyond technology, to
incremental sales volume of some of the models (Baleno & Brezza) which the company sells to
Toyota Kirloskar Motor India. MSIL also leverages SMC’s vast global distribution network to
significantly enhance its exports from India. Moreover, to make MSIL EV ready, SMC would
invest INR 104 billion in Gujarat to construct a plant for BEV batteries and Electric Vehicles. For
its smart hybrid, MSIL sources its lithium-ion battery packs from TDS Lithium-Ion Battery
Gujarat Pvt. Ltd. which is a collaboration between Toshiba, Denso and Suzuki. All of these
factors, we believe would help MSIL strengthen its position in the domestic as well export
markets.
Suzuki-Toyota partnership
Toyota Motor Corporation and Suzuki Motor Corporation started a partnership in 2016 and signed an agreement
in August 2019 for a capital alliance to establish and promote long-term cooperation in new fields, including
electric vehicle technology and autonomous driving. Under the capital alliance, Toyota acquired 4.94% stake in
Suzuki valued at 96 billion yen. At the same time, Suzuki bought a smaller stake (0.21%) in Toyota worth 48 billion
yen.
Details of intended areas of collaboration are outlined below:

I. Toyota’s strengths: Provision of electrified technology and electrified vehicles.
• Supply THS (Toyota Hybrid System) to Suzuki. (Global)
• Widely spread hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) technologies in India through local procurement of HEV systems,
engines, and batteries. (India)
• OEM supply of two new electrified vehicles built on Toyota platforms (RAV4, Corolla Wagon) to Suzuki in
Europe. (Europe)
II. Suzuki’s strengths: Provision of compact vehicles and powertrains

• OEM supply of two compact vehicles built on Suzuki platforms (Ciaz and Ertiga) to Toyota in India. (India)
• Toyota to adopt newly developed Suzuki engines for compact vehicles. Such engines are to be supported by
Denso and Toyota and will be manufactured at Toyota Motor Manufacturing Poland. (Europe)
• OEM supply of Suzuki’s India-produced vehicles (Baleno, Vitara Brezza, Ciaz, Ertiga) to Toyota, targeting the
African market. (Africa)
III. Collaboration in the fields of technological development and production, leveraging the strengths of
both companies
• Drawing upon Suzuki’s expertise in developing vehicles in India, joint development of a Toyota C-segment
MPV and OEM supply to Suzuki. (India)
• Production of the Suzuki-developed compact SUV Vitara Brezza at Toyota Kirloskar Motor Pvt. Ltd. (TKM) from
2022. (India)

Exports – on a strong growth footing

MSIL is amongst the largest exporter of passenger vehicles with the company selling its
vehicles in 90+ countries. Some of the major countries it exports to include South Africa, Chile,
Egypt, Philippines, and Colombia, respectively, with Dzire, Baleno, and Swift being amongst
the top 3 models exported. Africa makes up ~50% of MSIL’s export volumes with exports
growing by ~200% Y-o-Y from FY21 on a low base. The strong show in Africa resulted in ~1.5x
growth in overall export volumes of MSIL export volumes in FY22 and constituted ~14.4% of
MSIL total volumes. MSIL export volumes has increased at a CAGR of ~6.5% over FY12-22 with
export revenue growing at a CAGR of 12% over the same period.
Going forward, despite the unfavorable macro environment in some its key markets, MSIL is
confident about sustaining its impressive export performance in FY23 and beyond on the back
of the steadfast support offered to them from its parent, SMC through the access it receives to
the parent’s wide distribution network in several export markets. In addition to increasing its
presence, MSIL would also put up more vehicles in the exports market which would aid
growth in its key and emerging markets. We expect MSIL exports volumes to grow at a CAGR
of 9.3% over FY22-25E.
Exhibit 50. Export volume break up by countries (%) (FY22)
Chile, 11.8%
South Africa, 26.7%
Egypt, 10.2%
Philippines 4.4%
Colombia 4.2%
Others, 42.6%
Exhibit 51. Export Volumes & YoY Growth Exhibit 52. Domestic and Export Realization (INR)
(INR ' 000)

(' 000)
700
360 200%
147.9%
624
525
270 125%
517
516
491
482
471
441
350
427
416
415
180 13.0% 7.0% 8.0%

50%
354
0.1% 1.6%
-13.7% -6.0% -5.9%
90 -25% 175
316
409
445
421
420
490
462
527
513
504
524
109
124
126
102
238
269
288
311
96
0 -100% 0
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY18
FY20
FY17
FY19
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
MSIL Export Volumes (000' s) YoY Growth (%) Export Sales Realisation Domestic Sales Realisation

LCV
MSIL entered the Commercial Vehicle segment in FY17 with the launch of the ‘Super Carry’ for
which the Company has a dedicated sales channel. Beginning with a commercial network of
40 outlets in FY17, the ‘Super Carry’ is now sold in 359 outlets across 248 cities in India as of
FY22. This is a testament to the strong acceptance of the vehicle in the market in such a short
span of time.
Moreover, the ‘Super Carry’ is now the second-largest selling model in the ‘Mini-Truck’
category with a total of 33,812 units being sold in FY22, a 14.4% increase from FY21. The
model is available in two variants -petrol and CNG. In FY21, following the enforcement of the
BS-VI emission norms, MSIL was the first company to introduce a petrol-powered mini-truck in
the market in a category dominated by diesel vehicles. Going forward, we expect the growth
momentum to continue as CNG gives MSIL an edge over other players due to lower running
and maintenance cost.
Exhibit 53. LCV Volumes and Growth

(Units)
50,000 47,326 160%

138.0% 43,820
40,574
37,500 33,812 115%
29,556
23,874
25,000 21,778 70%
35.7%
14.4% 20.0%
12,500 8.0% 8.0% 25%
-8.8%
0 -20%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Volumes Growth (%)
Exhibit 54. LCV Outlets
(Outlets)
400 359
321 327
310
300
190
200
100
40
0
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Financial Analysis
Volumes to grow at 14% CAGR over FY22-25E

Post its peak volume of 1.86 mn vehicles in FY19, MSIL volumes declined for two consecutive
years on account of overall economic slowdown, COVID-19 pandemic and market share loss
in PV segment. In FY22, the volumes witnessed healthy recovery with domestic PV/Total
volumes growth of 2.9%/13.4% led by improving economic conditions and strong pent-up
demand. Although, MSIL underperformed the domestic PV industry over FY19-22 with market
share contracting by 780bps. Going forward, we expect MSIL to outperform peers given the
strong order backlog (388K pending bookings), ease in semi-conductor shortage, strong
product portfolio and new launches. We expect the domestic PV/Domestic volumes to grow at
a CAGR of 14.9%/14.7% over FY22-25E. Moreover, aided by new launches and expectation that
the small car segment would outperform over the next two years, we expect MSIL market
share to increase to 46.1% by FY25E. On the exports front, after a strong surge in FY22
(+147.9% YoY), we expect growth to moderate and grow at CAGR of 9.3% taking the overall
volume CAGR of 14% to 2.45 mn units by FY25E.
Exhibit 55. PV volumes to grow at 14.9% CAGR over FY22-25E Exhibit 56. Market Share to improve to 46.1% by FY25E
(' 000) 62.6% 62.2% 63.6% 65.1% 65.2% 65.5%

56.8% 58.0%
2,400 30% 52.1%
22.6%
13.8% 13.2%
10.6% 51.2% 51.0%
47.4% 50.0%
9.2%
1,800 5.3% 13% 47.7% 46.1%
2.9% 43.4% 42.9% 45.1%
-8.5%
1,200 -5% 25.7% 27.5% 28.1% 24.9% 24.4%
-18.2% 21.6% 19.5% 19.0% 22.9%
600 -23%
1,632
1,444
1,643
1,730
1,414
1,294
1,332
1,848
2,018
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
0 -40%
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E Passenger Cars (%) Utility Vehicles (%)
Passenger Vehicles (%)
MSIL Domestic PV Volumes YoY Growth (RHS)
Exhibit 57. Exports Volumes to grow at 9.3% CAGR over Exhibit 58. MSIL volumes to grow at 14% CAGR over FY22-25E
FY22-25E
(' 000) ('000)
360 200% 2,800 40%
147.9%
21.1%
270 125% 2,100 13.4% 13.4% 12.1% 20%
9.8% 9.0%
4.7%
180 50% 1,400 -6.7% 0%

13.0% 7.0% 8.0%
0.1% 1.6%
-13.7% -6.0% -5.9% -16.1%
90 -25% 700 -20%

1,569
1,780
1,862
1,563
1,458
1,653
2,002
2,244
2,446
124
126
109
102
238
269
288
311
96
0 -100% 0 -40%
FY22
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
MSIL Export Volumes (000' s) YoY Growth (%) MSIL Total Volumes (000' s) YoY Growth (%)

Change in mix to aid realizations CAGR of 5.4%

MSIL realizations have grown at a healthy CAGR of 5.5% over FY12-22 aided by change in mix
(from mini to compact and UVs) and higher cost (regulatory costs, raw material price
increases) related price increases. The constant focus on premiumization and increasing
affordability of consumers has also aided growth in realizations. Going forward, we expect
realizations growth to continue for MSIL led by continued shift in product mix. While for the
industry, we estimate passenger car segment to outperform, however for MSIL we believe the
launches made recently coupled with expected new launches next year would increase UV
proportion for MSIL from 22% currently to 26.3% by FY25E. We expect realizations to grow at a
CAGR of 5.4% over FY22-25E to INR 625k. We see upside risk to these estimates as rising share
of UVs and increased consumer preference towards higher end variants within the compact
segment would further aid realizations. MSIL key competitor Hyundai also witnessed healthy
rise in realizations on the back of rising share of UVs. In FY15 Hyundai had 0% volume from
UVs v/s 48% in FY22 leading to realizations growth of 8.2% CAGR to INR 770k as compared to
MSIL which is at INR 534k.
Exhibit 59. UV to constitute 26.3% share in MSIL PV volumes Exhibit 60. Hyundai V/s MSIL realizations (INR ‘000)
10.5% 9.4% 10.3% 8.4% 8.1% 8.1% 8.0% 7.5% 7.4% (INR ' 000)
46.4%
100%
44.2%
1,000 50%
13.6% 15.4% 15.3% 16.6% 17.7% 21.8% 22.4% 25.4%
35.7%
26.3%
32.4%
75% 800 40%
22.9%
21.6%
21.4%
50% 600 30%
14.9%
75.9% 75.1% 74.4% 75.0% 74.2% 70.0%

69.6% 67.1% 66.4% 400 20%
25%
200 10%
387
612
484
444
403
495
434
528
448
544
462
656
482
706
534
770
0%
0 0%
FY25E
FY23E
FY24E
FY20
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY21
FY22
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

MSIL Realizations Hyundai Realizations
Vans Utitlity Vehicles Passenger Cars Difference
Exhibit 61. MSIL Realizations (INR ‘000)
(INR ' 000)

10.7%
700 12%
7.7%
7.2%
6.0%
525 8%
4.7%
4.1%
3.3%
3.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.9%
350 4%
-0.3%
175 0%
403
534
379
387
434
448
462
484
482
573
607
625
0 -4%
FY19
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY25E
FY23E
FY24E
Average Realizations (INR ' 000) YoY Growth (%)

MSIL can deliver 20.1% revenue CAGR over FY22-25E

MSIL revenues did not taken as big of a hit as compared to volumes when compared to FY19
(FY22 volumes down 11.3% but revenue up 2.6% over FY19). This was mainly due to sharp
increase in realizations (+16% over FY19) due to regulatory cost related price increases
including BS-VI and insurance cost. Moreover, higher raw material costs also forced OEMs to
raise prices further. Going forward, MSIL would be the biggest beneficiary of the demand
recovery in the PV segment given its leadership position. We expect MSIL to surpass its
previous best volumes of 1.86 mn in FY19 to register 2 mn plus volumes in FY23E and 14%
CAGR over FY22-25E. Given the price increases, premiumization trend, and higher exports
would aid realizations to grow at a CAGR of 5.4%. Its revenue would thereby grow at a CAGR
of 20.1% over FY22-25E led by mix of both volume growth as well as realizations.
Multiple levers to aid margin improvement by ~450bps to 11%

MSIL margins has been the worst affected over the last four years from the peak of 15%
(FY16-18) to a mere 6.5% in FY22. Several factors led to this contraction including operating
deleverage, inability to pass on cost increases due to weak demand environment, and high
commodity cost pressures. This was despite lower discounts over the last two years mainly
due to supply side constraints. Nonetheless, we believe the worse of margin contraction is
behind and we should see it improve going forward driven by multiple levers including a)
better product mix (rising share of UVs and higher variants), ii) higher operating leverage
(volumes to grow at 14% CAGR), iii) cost saving initiatives by the company including
localization efforts, iv) Cool-off in key commodity prices, v) Lower royalty cost (3.4% of sales).
Even though we expect discounts to rise from the low of FY22, the above factors should lead
the expansion in margins by 450bps to 11% by FY25E.
Exhibit 62. MSIL Revenue to grow at 20.1% CAGR over Exhibit 63. MSIL EBITDA and EBITDA Margin
FY22-25E (INR bn)
(INR bn) (INR bn)

15.1%
29.8%
25.5%
40% 160 16%

12.8%
2,000
18.9%
18.2%
17.2%
11.0%
10.3%
12.2%
15.2%
9.7%
20% 120 12%

7.8%
1,500
8.7%
7.6%
-7.0%
6.5%
-12.1%
1,000 0% 80 8%
500 -20% 40 4%
1,146
1,363
1,529
100
121
680
798
860
756
703
883
74
77
75
57
42
38
66
0 -40% 0 0%
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
FY17
FY21
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
Net Sales YoY Growth (RHS) EBITDA EBITDA Margin (RHS)

Margin Levers in Charts

Exhibit 64. Discounts expected to rise but not to previous Exhibit 65. Royalty Costs to remain stable <4% of sales
peak
(Per unit)
36,000 8% (INR Mn)
7.0%
40,000 8%
27,000 6%
5.7%
5.7%
5.6%
5.6%
5.1%
5.3%
5.0%
4.7%
30,000 6%
4.7%
4.6%
4.3%
4.4%
4.0%
3.6% 3.4% 3.4%
18,000 4%
3.4%
2.8% 2.8%
2.4% 20,000 4%
2.0% 2.3%
9,000 2%
16,642
25,800
33,000
19,051
25,000
17,310
20,200
13,911
18,567
15,200
11,130
12,748
13,840
10,000 2%
26,574
24,538
24,861
32,443
38,480
37,672
37,926
38,173
32,218
30,054
0 0%
0 0%
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
FY22
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
Avg. Discount Discount as % of realizations (RHS) Royalty as a % of sales (RHS)
Exhibit 66. VA/VE Benefit to continue for MSIL Exhibit 67. EBITDA per Unit and Margin
(INR ' 000) (INR ' 000/Vehicle)
5,000 80 18%
15% 15%
13%
3,750 60 14%
10% 11%
572
1,419
10%
2,244
9%
275
2,164
8%
420
40 9%
3,044
2,500 6%
335
605
807
807
1,250 20 5%
1,285
1,285
2,090
2,469
2,185
1,875
1,579
2,365
2,801
2,508
1,687
66 68 59 47 37 34 50 63 69
0 0%
0
FY22
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
FY17
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
VA/VE Localisation EBITDA Per Vehicle (INR) EBITDA Margin (RHS)
Exhibit 68. Commodity Cost pressures have eased considerably

146
160
137
122
116
112
110
109
105
104
120
100
100
100
100
100
99
98
97
93
92
89
88
86
85
87
83
82
76
74
80
63
60
40
0
Steel Copper Aluminium Brent Rubber
Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Spot
Source: Bloomberg, MACM Research

PAT to grow at 47.6% CAGR over FY22-25E

MSIL PAT has nearly halved from FY19 mainly due to industry slowdown and weak operating
performance. Going forward, with industry volumes picking up coupled with market share
gains, healthy growth in realizations and a much-improved operational performance should
aid profitability for the company. Additionally, further aided by higher other income should
help MSIL to post a PAT CAGR of 47.6% over FY22-25E. Backed by strong financial
performance, we expect the return ratios RoE/RoCE to expand to 17.5%/22.8% by FY25E from
the FY22 low of 7.1%/8.8% respectively.
Exhibit 69. PAT to grow at 47.6% CAGR over FY22-25E
(INR bn)
140
130%
75.5%
51.3%
44.5%
105
37.0%
33.4% 80%
21.2%
16.4%
5.1%
-11.0%
-2.9%
70 30%
-24.7%
-25.1%
35 -20%
100
121
57
28
37
54
74
77
75
42
38
66
0 -70%
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
PAT (INR Bn) YoY Growth (RHS)
Exhibit 70. RoE and RoCE to expand to 18% and 23% by FY25E
40%
30% 28%
28%
30%
24% 23%
21% 21%
20% 15% 15%
22%
20% 20% 10%
17% 17% 9% 18%
10% 16%
12% 12%
8% 7%
0%
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
ROE (%) ROCE (%)

Capacity Expansion plan in place to meet demand

MSIL currently has two manufacturing facility in Haryana (Gurugram and Manesar) with an
installed capacity of 1.5 mn units per annum. It also has access to Suzuki Motor Gujarat (SMG)
(subsidiary of SMC) facility which has an annual production capacity of 0.75 mn units. The
arrangement is such that SMG would provide vehicles to MSIL at no extra cost. This takes the
combined capacity for MSIL to 2.25 mn units. With rising demand, MSIL has already put in
place capacity expansion plans wherein it would add 0.25 mn capacity at its Kharkhoda plant
for which MSIL would incur a capex of INR 70 billion in FY23E (INR 35 billion already incurred in
H1FY23). This plant is expected to be commissioned by 2025. Additionally, if demand picks up
as expected, MSIL would add another 0.1 mn per annum capacity in its Manesar plant which
would be commissioned by April-2024.
Exhibit 71. Capacity Utilization increase to 104% by FY25E Exhibit 72. MSIL capacity break up (‘000 Units)
(' 000 Units) ('000 Units)

2,400 120%
104% Gujarat,
1,800 98% 100% 105% 750
94%
90% 89%
1,200 90%
78%
73% 73%
600 75%
2,000
2,000
2,250
2,250
2,250
2,350
1,810
1,675
2,080
Manesar,
800
0 60%
FY18
FY17
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
Gurgaon,
Installed Capacity Utilisation (RHS) 700
Exhibit 73: MSIL three plants

Gurgaon Plant Manesar Plant
Gujarat Plant

Valuations
We believe MSIL has multiple levers in place to stage a strong recovery in its business as
well its financial performance. This would be driven by strong demand tailwinds for
domestic PV industry including rising income levels, higher economic growth, and stable
fuel prices. We expect domestic PV industry to grow at CAGR of 12.5% over FY22-25E.
MSIL would be the biggest beneficiary of demand recovery given its leadership position.
Moreover, new launches made recently and at least three more models expected in next
1-2 years would help MSIL plug its portfolio gaps in the UV segment. This would help
MSIL to recoup some of its lost market share in PV segment to 46.1% in FY25E as against
41.1% in H1FY23. This performance is also likely to translate into robust financial
performance driven by volume led growth. Moreover, change in mix, operation leverage
and cost saving initiatives would aid strong margin recovery for MSIL. We expect
Sales/EBITDA/PAT to grow at a CAGR of 20.1%/43.4%/47.6% over FY22-25E. At CMP, MSIL
trades at a P/E 26.1x/21.6x of FY24E/FY25E EPS. In addition, the company’s strong
execution track record, increased support from parent, huge investment on books (INR
366 bn), net-debt free balance sheet, expanding return ratios and strong brand equity
makes it a compelling Buy, in our view.
Therefore, we initiate coverage on Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) with a Buy rating and
a target price of INR 10,947 (upside: 26.4%), valuing the company at 28x Dec-24 EPS,
a discount of 7% as compared to its 10-Yr average P/E.
Exhibit 74. 1 Year Forward P/E (x) Chart
80
62.2
60
40
30.2
20
11.5
0
Oct-16
Oct-21
Apr-17
Dec-18
Apr-22
Feb-15
Sep-15
Feb-20
Jun-13
Jul-14
Mar-16
Jun-18
Jul-19
Mar-21
Nov-12
Jan-14
Nov-17
Aug-20
Nov-22
1 Year Forward P/E (x) Average P/E Max P/E Min P/E

Exhibit 75. Peer comparison table

Revenue (INR mn) EBITDA (INR mn) EBITDA margin
Name
FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Average 12% 13% 14% 14%
Maruti Suzuki* 8,82,956 11,46,454 13,62,628 15,29,354 57,012 99,741 1,40,351 1,68,229 6% 9% 10% 11%
M&M* 7,71,172 7,88,620 9,12,549 10,18,383 1,46,829 99,282 1,23,728 1,39,479 19% 13% 14% 14%
Tata Motors 27,52,352 32,57,975 38,43,748 42,33,031 2,47,988 3,14,079 4,75,919 5,48,730 9% 10% 12% 13%
Bajaj Auto 3,21,360 3,60,528 3,94,819 4,29,403 51,378 63,110 70,417 76,846 16% 18% 18% 18%
Eicher Motors 1,01,271 1,43,968 1,67,652 1,91,832 21,723 35,045 42,814 49,677 21% 24% 26% 26%
TVS Motors 2,13,208 2,59,152 2,88,469 3,20,657 3,098 27,184 31,957 36,637 1% 10% 11% 11%
Hero Motocorp* 2,95,513 3,45,462 3,86,359 4,25,433 34,448 41,231 50,372 56,693 12% 12% 13% 13%
Ashok Leyland* 2,61,103 3,18,017 3,81,563 4,37,087 27,652 22,437 36,015 44,101 11% 7% 9% 10%
Escorts 70,530 81,129 89,584 1,03,252 9,512 8,577 11,741 14,087 13% 11% 13% 14%
CMP Mcap ROE (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Company
(INR) (INR mn) FY23E FY24E FY25E FY23E FY24E FY25E FY23E FY24E FY25E FY23E FY24E FY25E
Maruti Suzuki* 8,659 26,15,757 11.8 16.2 17.5 39.6 26.1 21.6 4.5 4.0 3.6 25.8 17.9 14.4
M&M* 1,267 15,74,628 15.7 17.1 16.7 25.1 19.8 18.4 3.7 3.2 2.8 17.1 13.7 12.3
Tata Motors 420 15,10,882 7.0 23.6 26.3 21.2 11.7 8.8 3.3 2.7 2.1 6.8 5.0 4.3
Bajaj Auto 3,635 10,51,748 21.5 24.4 24.7 19.3 16.5 15.2 4.4 3.8 3.7 16.2 14.5 13.4
Eicher Motors 3,260 8,91,497 20.6 22.4 21.7 36.8 29.0 24.6 7.2 6.1 5.1 29.2 24.0 20.7
TVS Motors 1,025 4,87,083 26.7 27.4 25.3 37.4 29.8 24.9 9.1 7.3 5.9 26.0 21.4 18.5
Hero Motocorp* 2,760 5,51,442 18.8 21.5 22.7 17.5 14.2 13.0 3.2 2.9 2.7 11.1 9.2 8.3
Ashok Leyland* 145 4,25,885 13.4 23.8 25.8 42.1 21.0 16.5 5.6 4.8 3.9 20.6 12.8 10.1
Escorts 2,287 3,01,775 10.1 11.6 12.4 28.3 22.2 19.0 2.7 2.5 2.2 22.0 17.7 14.8
Source: Bloomberg, MACM Research,
MSIL data is from Mirae model; data for other auto companies is from BBG
Note: *denotes standalone figures

Company Background
Established in 1981 as a joint venture between the Government of India and Suzuki
Motor Corporation (SMC), Maruti Suzuki is a leading manufacturer of passenger vehicles
in India with a 43.4% market share in the Indian passenger vehicles market. The
company became a subsidiary of SMC in 2002 and is now its largest subsidiary in terms
of volume of production and sales. SMC holds 56.3% stake in MSIL. MSIL enjoys a strong
foothold in the passenger car segment and vans and enjoys a market share of 63.6% and
95.7%. It is also a formidable player in the UV segment, commanding a market share of
19.5% in FY22. Some of its top selling models include Swift, Alto, Dzire, Baleno and
Wagon R which enjoys a commanding market share in their respective segments. It also
exports to about 100 countries and volumes constitute nearly 14.4% of MSIL overall
volumes.
MSIL has a strong and industry leading distribution network spread across 2150+ cities
in India with 2,588 outlets under three sales channels i.e Arena, Nexa and Commercial.
The Company also has an industry leading service network panned across 4,254 outlets
in 2,134 cities.
MSIL has two state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities located in Gurugram and Manesar
in Haryana, India, with a cumulative production capacity of ~1.5 million units per annum.
Additionally, a manufacturing plant at Hansalpur, Gujarat owned and operated by Suzuki
Motor Gujarat (SMG) is also available to MSIL with an annual production capacity of 0.75
million units, thereby taking MSIL’s total production capacity to 2.25 million units per
annum.
Exhibit 76. MSIL Volume Break Up (%) Exhibit 77. MSIL PV Market Share (%) Exhibit 78. MSIL Export Break Up (%)
Sale to Tata
Mahindra &
other Motors, South Africa,
Mahindra, 7.4%
Vans, 7% OEMs, Hyundai, 26.7%
UV, 18% 12.1%
3% 15.7% Chile, 11.8%
Light
Commercial Kia Egypt,
Vehicles, 2% Motors, 10.2%
6.1%
Exports,
14%
Philippine
s 4.4%
Others,
Colombia
15.4%
4.2%
Passenger
Others,
Cars, 56%
Maruti, 43.4% 42.6%

Key Risks
Increased commodity cost pressure and interest rates: A surge in key commodity
prices, viz. steel, copper, and aluminum, would escalate MSIL’s production costs thereby
impacting profit margins adversely, especially if the company is not able to pass on the
costs to consumers in a commensurate manner. This phenomenon played out in FY22
which witnessed an unprecedented surge in prices of key raw materials for the company
for which they could only pass on the costs to a certain extent thereby hitting their
EBITDA margin. Moreover, as ~80% of MSIL’s car sales are financed through car loans, a
considerable and continued hike in interest rates by banks would push borrowing costs
up for customers thereby driving down demand for cars which could impact MSIL sales.
Changes in regulatory norms: Changes in safety and emission regulations by the

government could raise prices and thereby impact demand. The upcoming rule for six
airbags from Oct-2023 for passenger cars is a key risk for MSIL (if implemented) given its
strong presence in the small car segment. However, the industry has taken up with the
government as airbag capacity addition needs to be planned and testing requirement
needs to be fulfilled before implementation. Moreover, the semi-conductor is yet not
fully subsided.
Faster adoption of EVs and continued market share loss: While MSIL is expected to
launch its first EV in 2025, the faster than expected adoption of EVs over the next 1-2
years could adversely impact MSIL volumes. Moreover, if MSIL is not able to adapt to
changing consumer preference, it could lead to market share loss. While this has been
largely addressed as evident from the new launches made recently.

Financials
P&L Account (Standalone) Balance sheet (Standalone)
(INR mn) FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E (INR mn) FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Total Volumes (Units) 14,57,861 16,52,653 20,01,725 22,44,499 24,45,753 Share Capital 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510
YoY Growth (%) (6.7) 13.4 21.1 12.1 9.0 Reserves & Surplus 5,12,158 5,39,350 5,81,280 6,48,065 7,33,012
Total Shareholder's Fund 5,13,668 5,40,860 5,82,790 6,49,575 7,34,522
Net sales 7,03,325 8,82,956 11,46,454 13,62,628 15,29,354
Expenditure Non-Current Liabilities
Total Raw material cost 5,08,172 6,60,373 8,42,643 9,94,719 11,05,723 Tota Borrowings 4,888 3,819 5,820 4,320 2,820
Employee cost 34,029 40,222 49,298 57,230 64,233 Other long term liabilities 21,645 22,113 22,113 22,113 22,113
Other expenses 1,07,671 1,25,349 1,54,771 1,70,329 1,91,169 Deferred tax liabilities 3,847 0 0 0 0
Total expenditure 6,49,872 8,25,944 10,46,712 12,22,278 13,61,125 Long term provision 447 833 833 833 833
Current Liabilities
EBITDA 53,453 57,012 99,741 1,40,351 1,68,229 Trade payables 1,01,617 97,610 1,26,739 1,50,637 1,69,069
EBITDAM (%) 7.6 6.5 8.7 10.3 11.0 Short term provisions 7,416 8,613 8,613 8,613 8,613
Other income 29,464 17,935 17,038 22,150 25,472 Other current liabilities 48,080 60,095 78,029 92,742 1,04,090
Depreciation 30,315 27,865 29,816 31,604 35,397 Short term borrowing 0 0 0 0 0
Total liabilities 7,01,608 7,33,943 8,24,937 9,28,833 10,42,059
EBIT 52,602 47,082 86,964 1,30,896 1,58,304 Fixed Assets 1,41,511 1,27,995 1,72,181 1,80,577 1,85,180
Interest expenses 1,008 1,259 1,133 1,020 918 Current work in process 14,898 29,294 22,389 22,389 22,389
Intangible assets 2,242 3,499 3,499 3,499 3,499
PBT 51,594 45,823 85,831 1,29,876 1,57,386 Non current investment 3,33,710 3,66,632 3,66,632 3,66,632 3,66,632
Tax 9,297 8,160 19,741 29,872 36,199 Other non-current assets 28,440 36,684 36,684 36,684 36,684
Long term loans and advances 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Reported profit 42,297 37,663 66,090 1,00,005 1,21,187 Deferred Tax Assets 0 2,027 2,027 2,027 2,027
Exceptional Items 0 0 0 0 0 Current Assets
Adjusted PAT 42,297 37,663 66,090 1,00,005 1,21,187 Current investments 84,157 41,001 53,237 63,275 71,017
PATM (%) 6.0 4.3 5.8 7.3 7.9 Inventories 30,500 35,331 45,875 54,525 61,196
Trade receivables 12,766 20,301 26,359 31,330 35,163
Cash & Cash equivalents 30,364 30,360 43,054 1,04,902 1,87,571
Other current assets 23,018 40,817 52,998 62,991 70,698
Total assets 7,01,608 7,33,943 8,24,937 9,28,833 10,42,059

- - - - -
Cash Flow Statement (Standalone) Key Financial ratios
(INR mn) FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Reported PBT 51,594 45,823 85,831 1,29,876 1,57,386 Per Share Ratios
Depreciation 30,315 27,865 29,816 31,604 35,397 Dividend per share INR 45.0 60.0 80.0 110.0 120.0
Tax paid (9,297) (8,160) (19,741) (29,872) (36,199) EPS INR 140.1 124.7 218.8 331.1 401.3
Working capital Change (21,150) 22,196 6,045 4,959 3,825 CEPS INR 240.4 217.0 317.6 435.8 518.5
Other operating items - - - - - Book value per share INR 1700.9 1790.9 1929.8 2150.9 2432.2
Operating Cash Flow (a) 51,462 87,724 1,01,950 1,36,568 1,60,409 Profitability Ratios
Capex (23,907) (30,002) (67,097) (40,000) (40,000) EBITDA Margin (%) 7.6 6.5 8.7 10.3 11.0
Free Cash Flow 27,555 57,722 34,853 96,568 1,20,409 PBT Margin (%) 7.3 5.2 7.5 9.5 10.3
Investments 14,036 (41,166) - - - Net Profit Margin (%) 6.0 4.3 5.8 7.3 7.9
Investing Cash Flow (b) (9,871) (71,168) (67,097) (40,000) (40,000) RoCE (%) 10.4 8.8 15.3 21.1 22.8
Debt Issuance/ (Repaid) 3,825 (1,069) 2,001 (1,500) (1,500) RoE (%) 8.5 7.1 11.8 16.2 17.5
Dividend Paid (13,590) (18,120) (24,160) (33,220) (36,240) Dividend Payout (%) 32.1 48.1 36.6 33.2 29.9
Share Capital Issuance, QIP proceeds - - - - - Efficiency
Others (1,673) 2,629 - - - Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 4.4 5.6 6.5 6.9 7.5
Financing Cash Flow (c) (11,438) (16,560) (22,159) (34,720) (37,740) Debtors (Days) 7 8 8 8 8
Net Cash Flow (a + b + c) 30,153 (4) 12,694 61,848 82,669 Inventory (Days) 16 15 15 15 15
Closing Cash 30,364 30,360 43,054 1,04,902 1,87,571 Creditor (Days) 78 65 65 65 65
Check (0) (0) - - - Interest Cover Ratio (x) 52 37 76.7 128.4 172.5
Debt-Equity Ratio (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current ratio (x) 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Valutation Ratios
P/E (x) 61.8 69.4 39.6 26.1 21.6
P/B (x) 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.0 3.6
EV/EBIDTA (x) 48.4 45.4 25.8 17.9 14.4

P&L Account Balance sheet

(USD mn) FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E (USD mn) FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Total Volumes (Units) 14,57,861 16,52,653 20,01,725 22,44,499 24,45,753 Share Capital 18 18 18 18 18
YoY Growth (%) (6.7) 13.4 21.1 12.1 9.0 Reserves & Surplus 6,212 6,542 7,051 7,861 8,891
Total Shareholder's Fund 6,231 6,561 7,069 7,879 8,910
Net sales 8,531 10,710 13,907 16,529 18,551
Expenditure Non-Current Liabilities
Total Raw material cost 6,164 8,010 10,221 12,066 13,412 Tota Borrowings 59 46 71 52 34
Employee cost 413 488 598 694 779 Other long term liabilities 263 268 268 268 268
Other expenses 1,306 1,520 1,877 2,066 2,319 Deferred tax liabilities 47 0 0 0 0
Total expenditure 7,883 10,019 12,697 14,826 16,510 Long term provision 5 10 10 10 10
Current Liabilities
EBITDA 648 692 1,210 1,702 2,041 Trade payables 1,233 1,184 1,537 1,827 2,051
EBITDAM (%) 7.6 6.5 8.7 10.3 11.0 Short term provisions 90 104 104 104 104
Other income 357 218 207 269 309 Other current liabilities 583 729 946 1,125 1,263
Depreciation 368 338 362 383 429 Short term borrowing 0 0 0 0 0
Total liabilities 8,511 8,903 10,007 11,267 12,640
PBIT 638 571 1,055 1,588 1,920 Fixed Assets 1,717 1,553 2,089 2,190 2,246
Interest expenses 12.2 15.3 13.7 12.4 11.1 Current work in process 181 355 272 272 272
Intangible assets 27 42 42 42 42
PBT 626 556 1,041 1,575 1,909 Non current investment 4,048 4,447 4,447 4,447 4,447
Tax 113 99 239 362 439 Other non-current assets 345 445 445 445 445
Long term loans and advances 0 0 0 0 0
Reported profit 513 457 802 1,213 1,470 Deferred Tax Assets 0 25 25 25 25
Exceptional Items 0 0 0 0 0 Current Assets
Adjusted PAT 513 457 802 1,213 1,470 Current investments 1,021 497 646 768 861
PATM (%) 6.0 4.3 5.8 7.3 7.9 Inventories 370 429 556 661 742
Check - - - - - Trade receivables 155 246 320 380 427
Cash & Cash equivalents 368 368 522 1,272 2,275
Other current assets 279 495 643 764 858
0 0 0 0 0
Total assets 8,511 8,903 10,007 11,267 12,640
- - - - -
Cash Flow Statement
(USD mn) FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Reported PBT 626 556 1,041 1,575 1,909
Depreciation 368 338 362 383 429
Tax paid (113) (99) (239) (362) (439)
Working capital Change (257) 269 73 60 46
Other operating items - - - - -
Operating Cash Flow (a) 624 1,064 1,237 1,657 1,946
Capex (290) (364) (814) (485) (485)
Free Cash Flow 334 700 423 1,171 1,461
Investments 170 (499) - - -
Investing Cash Flow (b) (120) (863) (814) (485) (485)
Debt Issuance/ (Repaid) 46 (13) 24 (18) (18)
Dividend Paid (165) (220) (293) (403) (440)
Share Capital Issuance, QIP proceeds - - - - -
Others (20) 32 - - -
Financing Cash Flow (c) (139) (201) (269) (421) (458)
Net Cash Flow (a + b + c) 366 (0) 154 750 1,003
Closing Cash 368 368 522 1,272 2,275
Check - - - - -
Note: 1USD = INR 82.4

Appendix to research report

Research Analyst(s) who prepared this Report are registered as Research Analyst in India but not in any other jurisdiction,
including the U.S.
Important disclosures and disclaimers

One Year Price Graph Chart from 07-12-21 to 07-12-22
Two-year rating and TP history
Company Date Rating TP (INR) (INR) Maruti Suzuki India
Maruti Suzuki India - Initiate 07-12-22 Buy 10,947 11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22
Disclosures and disclaimers
Disclosures:
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bearing SEBI-registration number INH000007526. Please reach out to research@miraeassetcm.com for any queries.
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https://cm.miraeasset.co.in/home.aspx.
Ratings Disclosure – Criteria for Recommendation / Changes in Ratings

Stock ratings (Expected absolute returns over 12 months) Industry ratings
Buy 20% or greater Overweight Expected to outperform the market over 12 months
Add 10% to <20% Neutral Expected to perform in line with the market over 12 months
Hold 5% to <10% Underweight Expected to underperform the market over 12 months
Sell Below 5%
Rating and TP history: Share price (─), TP (▬), Not Rated (■), Buy (▲), Add (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆)
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings.
* The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions
Buy Hold Sell

Ratings distribution 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Investment banking services 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
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Maruti Suzuki India: Msil in Staged For A Strong Comeback

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Maruti Suzuki India: Msil in Staged For A Strong Comeback

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[India] Autos December 07, 2022

INDIA COMPANY ANALYSIS

Maruti Suzuki India MSIL IN Buy

Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics

PV Retails Urban Rural India

Source: FADA, NFHS, MACM Research

Source: FADA, SIAM, MACM Research

CAGR 6.2% CAGR -3.1% CAGR 12.5%

4,500 13.2% 25%

7.2% 9.2% 7.9%

Source: SIAM, MACM Research

Mirae Asset Capital Markets (India) Pvt. Ltd 2

10.5% 9.4% 10.3% 8.4% 8.1% 8.1% 8.0% 7.5% 7.4%

Source: Company, MACM Research

62.6% 62.2% 63.6% 65.1% 65.2% 65.5%

25.7% 27.5% 28.1% 24.9% 24.4%

Source: Company, MACM Research

(INR ' 000/Vehicle)

10% 105 80%

Source: Company, MACM Research

Mirae Asset Capital Markets (India) Pvt. Ltd 3

Domestic Passenger Vehicle Industry to grow at 12.5%

On-going recovery to continue for the PV industry

Exhibit 13: Strong order backlog for OEMs

(' 000) (' 000)

360 500 447 456

Source: FADA, MACM Research

Mirae Asset Capital Markets (India) Pvt. Ltd 4

Structural growth drivers in place for PV industry

Exhibit 16. Domestic PV Industry Growth (% YoY)

Source: SIAM, MACM Research

(Cars per 1,000)

1998-99 2005-06 2015-16 2020-21

Urban Rural India

Source: NFHS, Cartrade RHP, MACM Research

Mirae Asset Capital Markets (India) Pvt. Ltd 5

Source: Bloomberg, SIAM, MACM Research

Per Capita GDP Growth Domestic PV Growth

Source: SIAM, RBI, MACM Research

Mirae Asset Capital Markets (India) Pvt. Ltd 6

Exhibit 21. 1 Year Median MCLR Rate for SCB (%)

80 Petrol and Diesel

Source: Bloomberg, MACM Research

Mirae Asset Capital Markets (India) Pvt. Ltd 7

Domestic PV Industry to grow at 12.5% CAGR over FY22-25E

Exhibit 24. Domestic PV volumes to grow at 12.5% CAGR over FY22-25E

6,000 CAGR 6.2% CAGR -3.1% CAGR 12.5% 50%

Domestic PV Industry Volumes YoY Growth (RHS)

Source: SIAM, MACM Research

Mirae Asset Capital Markets (India) Pvt. Ltd 8

Rising share of UVs driving premiumization

Exhibit 25. PV Industry Segmental Share (%)

71% 72% 73% 69% 66% 66% 61% 57%

Utility Vehicles Vans Passenger Cars

Source: SIAM, MACM Research

25% 28% 28%

30% 49% 51% 50% 50%

69% 66% 66%

25% 48% 46% 47%

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E

Source: SIAM, MACM Research

Mirae Asset Capital Markets (India) Pvt. Ltd 9

EV-fication still a few years away for India