Running head: FORECASTING IN BUSINESS 1

Forecasting, qualitative and quantitative analysis

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Forecasting, qualitative and quantitative analysis

Forecasting, advantages of qualitative data over quantitative

Forecasting is a planning tool used to predict or determining the future outcome of an

event. In business, forecasting is used to predict the success of a certain venture to avoid big

losses while in other fields is used to predict outcomes of different phenomenon. It is more

advantageous to use qualitative than quantitative data in numerous fields of research. First,

qualitative research data is personal, iterative and field based. This means that collection of data

involves experiments, interviews and different kinds of field studies. Indeed, data collected

through qualitative analysis leads to sound conclusion because of the first hand information got

by the researcher (Rossman, & Rallis, 2003). Qualitative kind of research mainly focuses on

quality but not quantity like is the case in quantitative research. In essence, the aim of qualitative

research is to find in depth the conditioning prevailing, causing a certain effect. This is to mean

that the validity and quality of data collected is more reliable in qualitative analysis.

On the other hand, quantitative method mainly emphasize on representing data through

numerical method. This data is usually collected from secondary type of data that was made for

other purposes and then draw its conclusion. Some of quantitative types of approach involve

researchers comparing numerical values to create other values. Data in quantitative analysis is

commonly collected from sample surveys from general interviews and questionnaire and then

majority views implemented (Rossman, & Rallis, 2003). Generally, quantitative approach can be

considered to be aiming at finding the potential cause of an event and the effect, mostly done

through short time interviews.

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In conclusion, for the purpose of forecasting, qualitative data has more advantages than

quantitative data. Improper handling of quantitative data definitely leads to statistical errors

because it mostly deals with large numbers mostly. Large numbers are generally prone to some

statistical errors and also more expensive throwing quantitative data to the disadvantageous side.

Furthermore, weighing and sampling of quantitative data can be misused leading to inaccuracy,

invalid and a study that cannot be projected. There are many strength associated with qualitative

research like flexibility, well focused and data is designed to quick completion. Ideally, results

are first hand and usually, first hand information is more accurate and true than second hand

information from books or journals (Persson, & Stirna, 2009). Generally, foresight draws

conclusion from either quantitative or qualitative data to deal with certain problems. It is not

always that quantitative data gives wrong information but by looking at its merits, we find

qualitative more advantageous.

Ways hospitality professionals can use demand modeling and forecasting

Hospitality professionals generally work as mangers or administrators in an environment

that is service based, with the overall responsibility of overseeing the success of operations in an

establishment. Demand modeling usually depends on statistical methods combined with business

intelligence tactics to generate accurate demand forecasts. Hospitality professional may employ

demand modeling and forecasting to develop new products in the market through different ways.

Notably, being in the hospitality field requires someone to be more focused on ways of

improving the quality of services to his target consumers. Hospitality professionals need to

analyze the statistical data of the past needs and demands of his client to plan effectively for

future demands (Dwyer, Gill & Seetaram, 2012). They will research on intelligence inputs

required according to customer’s preferences and complain. Generally, they have to set some
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formulas with the aim of estimating the aggregate demand depending on their business. Ideally,

the main aim of any business venture is making profits and due to this reason, one has to focus

on emerging markets. For this case of hospitality professionals, developing new products is a

major strategy for remaining relevant in the market. They have to forecast on the future life of

their service businesses to avoid being overtaken by competitors.

Indeed, everyone in the hospitality industry should learn to anticipate for change because

of different changes in the world in economy, cases of terrorism, advancement in technology and

natural disasters. They should forecast on various changes that may happen like three years to

come and stay prepared for such event. Mostly, pick-up numbers and trends over a certain period

of time can be used to predict the state of future trends (Dwyer, Gill & Seetaram, 2012).

Generally, planning for new products in the market requires collecting some data concerning the

targeted customers and then analyzing. This is the point where qualitative analysis method is

effective because some experiments and interviews need to be done. In addition, expanding into

emerging markets is a very risky venture where hospitality professionals need to identify and

foresee risks. This will help in planning on various ways of dealing with heightened risk level.

Moreover, researching on licensing agreements in emerging markets and if there are joint

ventures are approaches that hospitality professional can use in designing new products for

emerging markets. Really, challenges are significant, but this should not be a drawback in

planning for venturing into the emerging markets. Demand modeling and forecasting are

effective ways of researching on venturing into emerging market. However, using these two

techniques does not definitely guarantee success of a business venture (Persson, & Stirna, 2009).

One should be prepared and conduct other various kinds of researches to know on different

market needs. Indeed, business people should not be focused on competing with existing
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opportunities, but should look for additional outlets. They should identify the unmet needs of

customers and then access the amount required to venture and the profit returns expected.
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References

Rossman, G. B., & Rallis, S. F. (2003). Learning in the field: An introduction to qualitative

research. Thousand Oaks, Calif. [u.a.: Sage Publ.

Dwyer, L., Gill, A., & Seetaram, N. (2012). Handbook of research methods in tourism:

Quantitative and qualitative approaches. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.

IFIP WG 8.1 Working Conference on the Practice of Enterprise Modeling, Persson, A., & Stirna,

J. (2009). The practice of enterprise modeling: Second IFIP WG 8.1 Working

Conference, PoEM 2009, Stockholm, Sweden, November 18-19, 2009 : proceedings.

Berlin: Springer.