Figure 1.

1 Global prospects
Figure 1.1.A. G7 policy rates
Figure 1.1.B. EMDE sovereign spread changes in 2022, by credit rating and energy exporte
Figure 1.1.C. Global growth
Figure 1.1.D. Share of countries with downgrades in growth forecasts
Figure 1.1.E. Deviation of output from pre-pandemic trends
Figure 1.1.F. EMDE per capita GDP growth, by bottom and top quartile poverty headcount
g and energy exporter status

poverty headcount ratio

Figure 1.1.A. G7 policy rates

Basis points Mar-22 Dec-72

750 May-79 Jun-99
Jun-04 Dec-15

500

250

0
t+4

t+8
t
t+2

t+6

t+10
t+12
t+14
t+16
t+18
t+20

Sources: BIS (database); Bloomberg; Haver Analytics; WDI (database); World Bank.
Note: G7 = Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United St
weighted by nominal GDP in current U.S. dollars. “t” is the month before the U.S. policy rate
the G7-weighted policy rate peaks. Judgement used to define “double-peak” cycles. March
market-implied interest rate expectations from January 2023 onward, observed on Decemb
Note: G7 = Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United St
weighted by nominal GDP in current U.S. dollars. “t” is the month before the U.S. policy rate
the G7-weighted policy rate peaks. Judgement used to define “double-peak” cycles. March
market-implied interest rate expectations from January 2023 onward, observed on Decemb

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 Dec-72 t
Jun-99 t+1
t+2

Dec-15 t+3
t+4
t+5
t+6
t+7
t+8
t+9
t+10
t+11
t+12
t+13
t+14
t+15
t+16
t+17
t+18
t+19
t+20
t+21
t+22
t+23
t+16
t+18
t+20
t+22
t+24
t+26
t+28

t+24
t+25
t+26
t+27
t+28

; World Bank.
m, and the United States. Short-term policy rate
e the U.S. policy rate increases. Cycle ends when
peak” cycles. March 2022 cycle extended using
bserved on December 16, 2022.
Dec-72 May-79 Jun-99 Jun-04 Dec-15 Mar-22
0 0 0 0 0 0
38.4 10.6 9.2 13.4 0 16.6
70.9 25.8 9.2 13.4 0 19
102.6 58.2 20.4 26.8 0 48
124.3 95.5 22.3 38.9 0 93
136 137.4 22.3 39.9 13.1 149.5
190.7 251.4 47.7 51.1 12.5 153.2
236.5 272.9 47.7 62.3 12.5 217.7
367.6 311.8 50.6 64.8 11.4 220.1
392.9 345.7 70 76.2 11.4 283
431.2 393.3 87.5 87.7 11.4 333.5 333.5
402 551.1 92.6 87.7 11.4 350.7
412.5 592.2 117.4 99.1 11.4 369
438.9 317.5 127.5 110.6 9.5 382.5
438.2 240 127.5 110.6 8.1 389.1
396.9 223.1 133.2 119.8 8.1 394.1
428.2 233.7 138.2 132.2 8.1 394.5
483.4 283.2 143.3 133.3 21.2 395.8
525.8 360.3 143.3 144.7 21.5
562.9 469.6 143.3 163.2 21.5
614.8 607.4 181.5 34.7
636.3 181.5 34.7
495.8 200.4 34.7
406.4 201.5 47.8
460.6 214.2 48.9
612 231.9 48.9
643.5 235.8 50
672.2 244.2 50
244.2 51.9
Figure 1.1.B. EMDE sovereign spread changes in 2022, by c

Percentage points
2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
Exporter Importer Exporter I
Strong credit Weak c
Sources: JP Morgan; Moody's; World Bank.
Note: Change in EMBI spreads since January 2022, using Moody's sovereign foreign curre
includes 11 EMDE energy exporters and 35 EMDE energy importers. Strong credit defined
Baa3. Weak credit defined as ratings from Caa to Ca. Sample excludes Belarus, the Russia
Ukraine. Last observation is December 13, 2022.
Note: Change in EMBI spreads since January 2022, using Moody's sovereign foreign curre
includes 11 EMDE energy exporters and 35 EMDE energy importers. Strong credit defined
Baa3. Weak credit defined as ratings from Caa to Ca. Sample excludes Belarus, the Russia
Ukraine. Last observation is December 13, 2022.

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es in 2022, by credit rating and energy exporter status
Strong crediExporter
Importer
Weak creditExporter
Importer

Exporter Importer
Weak credit

sovereign foreign currency ratings. Sample

s. Strong credit defined as ratings from Aaa to
des Belarus, the Russian Federation, and
34.3
23.1
572
1736
Figure 1.1.C. Global growth

Percent

-2

-4
9 0 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17
19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20
 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20

Source: World Bank.

Note: Data for 2023 and onward are forecasts. Sample includes up to 37 advanced econom
Aggregate growth rates are calculated using real U.S. dollar GDP weights at average 2010
exchange rates.

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 Global growth
1990 2.4
1991 1.3
1992 1.9
1993 1.7
1994 3.2
1995 3.1
1996 3.4
1997 3.8
1998 2.6
1999 3.4
2000 4.5
2001 2
2002 2.3
2003 3
2004 4.3
2005 4
2006 4.4
2007 4.4
2008 2
2009 -1.6
2010 4.5
2011 3.4
2012 2.7
2013 2.8
2014 3
2015 3

1 1 14 17 20 23 2016
2017
2.7
3.3

20 20 20 20 20 2018
2019
3.3
2.6
2020 -3.2
20 20 20 20 20
2021 5.9
2022 2.9
2023 1.7
to 37 advanced economies and 144 EMDEs. 2024 2.7
eights at average 2010-19 prices and market
Figure 1.1.D. Share of countries with downgrades in growth

Percent of countries
100

75

50

25

0
2023 2024 2023 2024 20
World Advanced
economies

Source: World Bank.

Note: EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies. Figure shows share of countr
downgrades since the June 2022 Global Economic Prospects.
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 downgrades in growth forecasts

23 2024 2023 2024

Advanced EMDEs
conomies

mies. Figure shows share of countries with forecast

pects.
World 2023 72.9
###
2024 49.2
###
Advanced economi 2023 94.6
###
2024 54.1
###
EMDEs 2023 67.4
###
2024 47.9
###
Figure 1.1.E. Deviation of output from pre-pandemic trends

Percent Advanced economies

EMDEs
EMDEs excl. China
0

-2

-4

-6

-8
2019 2020 2021 2022 202
Source: World Bank.
Note: EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies. Aggregate growth rates are c
real U.S. dollar GDP weights at average 2010-19 prices and market exchange rates. Data f
onward are forecasts. Figure shows deviation between current forecasts and January 2020
Prospects. January 2020 baseline extended into 2023 and 2024 using projected growth for
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ndemic trends Change from pre-pandemic
Advanced ecoEMDEs
2019 0 0
conomies 2020 -5.7 -5.5
2021 -2.1 -3.5
2022 -1.1 -4.6
2023 -2.2 -5.6

l. China 2024 -2.1 -5.9

2022 2023 2024

ate growth rates are calculated using
exchange rates. Data for 2023 and
sts and January 2020 Global Economic
g projected growth for 2022.
EMDEs excl. China
0
-6.9
-4.9
-4.8
-5.7
-5.8
Figure 1.1.F. EMDE per capita GDP growth, by bottom and t

Percent
10

0
Low poverty High p
headcount headc
Sources: WDI (database); World Bank.
Note: EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies. “Low poverty headcount” are
headcount in the 25th percentile, and “high poverty headcount” are those in the 75th percen
per capita GDP growth over 2023-24 for 39 EMDEs. Whiskers show minimum-maximum ra
Belarus and the Russian Federation. Poverty data are the poverty headcount ratio at $2.15
headcount in the 25th percentile, and “high poverty headcount” are those in the 75th percen
per capita GDP growth over 2023-24 for 39 EMDEs. Whiskers show minimum-maximum ra
Belarus and the Russian Federation. Poverty data are the poverty headcount ratio at $2.15

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 h, by bottom and top quartile poverty headcount ratio

High poverty
headcount

Low poverty headcount” are EMDEs with poverty

are those in the 75th percentile. Bars show average
show minimum-maximum range. Sample excludes
erty headcount ratio at $2.15 a day (2017 PPP).
 Per capi poz
Low poverty neg
headcount
High poverty 4 4.8 2.7
headcount 1.8 3.5 1.1