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China Merchants Securities Co., LTD 700@HK 1988799356
China Merchants Securities Co., LTD 700@HK 1988799356
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Focus Charts
Figure 1: Revenue by segment Figure 2: Segment gross margin
VAS
FinTech and Business Services, and Others
Online advertising
(RMB bn) Online advertising
other VAS (%) FinTech, Business service and Others
28% Moblie game 60
900 30% 54 52 52
PC game 52 51
750 yoy 25% 50 50
51
16% 20% 47
600 40
12% 46 42
10% 15%
450 30 34 35
10% 32
27 29
300 20
5%
-1%
150 0% 10
0 -5% 0
Sources: Company, CMS (HK) estimates Sources: Company, CMS (HK) estimates
0
50
-10
0 -20
Sources: Company, CMS (HK) estimates Sources: Company, CMS (HK) estimates
11.0
45.0
9.0
35.0
7.0
25.0
5.0
15.0 3.0
Sources: Company, Bloomberg, CMS (HK) estimates Sources: Company, Bloomberg, CMS (HK) estimates
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Figure 11: Tencent’s SOTP valuation under Base, Bear and Bull cases
Valuation Multiple Seg as % of group valuation Valuation
RMB bn Valuation basis
metrics Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull
Core businesses
Online games FY23E EV/EBITDA RMB95.8bn 7.0 12.0 17.0 27.9% 30.2% 33.0% 671 1,150 1,629
SNS (excl. mobile games) FY23E EV/EBITDA RMB39.1bn 5.0 10.0 15.0 8.1% 10.3% 11.9% 195 391 586
Online advertising FY23E EV/EBITDA RMB36.1bn 10.0 18.0 23.0 15.0% 17.1% 16.8% 361 650 831
FinTech and Cloud FY23E EV/EBITDA RMB55.2bn 10.0 18.0 23.0 22.9% 26.1% 25.7% 552 993 1,269
Subtotal (A) 1,779 3,184 4,315
Investees
Listed investees
RMB bn Mkt cap % Stake Stake value Mkt cap % Stake Stake value
Key companies Consumer
Meituan (3690 HK) 911.3 17.2% 156.7 Nio (NIO US) 124.9 17.2% 21.5
Pinduoduo (PDD US) 606.3 15.5% 94.0 Beike Zhaofang (BEKE US) 133.2 6.5% 8.6
Sea (SE US) 234.3 18.6% 43.6 Tongcheng Elong (0780 HK) 33.5 21.8% 7.3
Kuaishou (1024 HK) 206.0 11.8% 24.4 Vipshop (VIPS US) 40.1 9.8% 3.9
JD.com (JD US) 593.0 2.3% 13.6 Yonghui (601933 CH) 28.9 5.3% 1.5
Bilibili (BILI US) 43.9 11.2% 4.9 Miniso Group (MNSO US) 21.9 5.4% 1.2
Gaming Technology
Activision Blizzard (ATVI US) 413.0 5.0% 20.7 China Unicom (0762 HK) 103.5 5.2% 5.4
Netmarble (251270 KS) 23.3 17.5% 4.1 Kingsoft (3888 HK) 32.6 7.8% 2.5
Ubisoft (UBI FP) 24.6 10.0% 2.5 NavInfo (002405 CH) 29.1 4.4% 1.3
Douyu (Doyu US) 2.7 38.0% 1.0 Fujian Boss Software (300525 CH) 13.2 8.3% 1.1
iDreamSky (1119 HK) 5.6 17.5% 1.0 DHC Software (002065 CH) 19.7 4.9% 1.0
Archosaur Games (9990 HK) 3.1 17.0% 0.5 Yeaika (9923 HK) 8.7 3.9% 0.3
Media Weimob (2013 HK) 11.9 3.3% 0.4
Universal Music Group (UMG NA) 280.6 20.0% 56.1 Finance
Snap (SNAP US) 126.8 14.7% 18.7 Futu Securities (FUTU US) 52.5 21.0% 11.1
Spotify (SPOT US) 113.1 8.7% 9.9 Zhongan (6060 HK) 25.6 7.8% 2.0
Warner Music (WMG US) 102.9 1.6% 1.6
Kadokawa (9468 JP) 18.2 6.9% 1.2
Maoyan (1896 HK) 7.7 13.8% 1.1
Zhihu (ZH US) 6.0 12.8% 0.8
Listed holdings, marked to market, subtotal 525
Unlisted holdings carrying value reported by company 340
Discount rate for unlisted investments 50%
Total valuation of investees (B) 695
Net cash, add (C) 1
Minority interest/NCI, minus (D) 71
Total valuation (RMB mn) (A+B+C-D) 2,404 3,809 4,940
Current traded value multiple Target value implied multiple Bear Base Bull
Non-IFRS NP FY22E PE multiple (x) 20.6 Non-IFRS NP FY22E PE multiple (x) 19.4 30.7 39.9
Forward multiple with total valuation net of investees (x) 15.0 Forward multiple with total valuation net of investees (x) 13.8 25.1 34.3
Non-IFRS NP FY23E PE multiple (x) 16.8 Non-IFRS NP FY23E PE multiple (x) 15.8 25.1 32.5
Forward multiple with total valuation net of investees (x) 12.2 Forward multiple with total valuation net of investees (x) 11.2 20.5 27.9
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Valuation comparison
EV/EBITDA P/S P/OCF
Bloomberg CMS Mkt cap P/E (x) PEG* ROE (%) 2021-2023E CAGR
Company Ccy Price CMS TP (X) (x) (x)
Ticker Rating (USD bn)
FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E FY22E FY22E FY22E FY22E FY23E Sales EPS EBITDA
Platform
Tencent 700 HK HKD BUY 294.4 430.0 360.5 13.3 10.9 21.0 17.1 3.9 4.3 17.0 13.5 15.7 4.6 5.3 7.5
Alibaba BABA US USD BUY 78.2 142.0 206.9 5.9 5.5 9.5 10.4 n.a. 1.6 10.3 15.2 13.1 8.8 n.a. n.a.
Meituan 3690 HK HKD BUY 162.3 261.0 128.4 n.a. 49.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.8 n.a. n.a. 8.4 24.9 n.a. n.a.
Baidu BIDU US USD NR 94.8 n.a. 32.7 6.2 5.3 12.4 10.6 2.1 1.9 8.7 6.1 7.5 6.0 5.9 23.7
Alphabet GOOGL US USD NR 98.9 n.a. 1,280.3 10.9 9.9 18.1 16.0 1.3 5.4 13.0 25.1 25.7 6.7 13.8 19.2
Facebook FB US USD NR 113.2 n.a. 300.2 5.7 6.0 11.3 13.0 n.a. 2.6 6.5 19.4 17.9 6.5 n.a. n.a.
Naver 035420 KS KRW NR 189,500.0 n.a. 23.3 18.0 16.1 32.6 24.5 n.a. 3.8 21.8 4.0 5.1 16.0 n.a. 3.2
China Mean 7.9 15.5 13.2 12.3 3.0 2.6 11.7 12.5 11.6 10.6 5.6 15.6
Global Mean 11.5 10.7 20.7 17.8 1.3 3.9 13.8 16.2 16.2 9.7 13.8 11.2
Cloud
Chinasoft 354 HK HKD BUY 6.8 10.0 2.6 9.0 9.0 13.2 11.2 1.1 0.8 47.2 10.7 11.5 21.7 11.7 4.5
Tencent 700 HK HKD BUY 294.4 430.0 360.5 13.3 10.9 21.0 17.1 3.9 4.3 17.0 13.5 15.7 4.6 5.3 7.5
Alibaba BABA US USD BUY 78.2 142.0 206.9 5.9 5.5 9.5 10.4 n.a. 1.6 10.3 15.2 13.1 8.8 n.a. n.a.
Kingsoft 3888 HK HKD BUY 26.4 34.0 4.6 10.9 8.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.4 n.a. n.a. 2.1 19.1 n.a 26.5
Kingdee 268 HK HKD NR 15.0 n.a. 6.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 22.7 n.a. n.a.
Mingyuan Cloud 909 HK HKD NR 6.3 n.a. 1.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.0 n.a. n.a.
KC Cloud KC US USD NR 3.2 n.a. 0.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.9 n.a. n.a.
Microsoft MSFT US USD NR 241.7 n.a. 1,802.0 19.5 17.4 27.3 25.0 n.a. n.a. 22.3 42.9 36.7 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Alphabet GOOGL US USD NR 98.9 n.a. 1,280.3 10.9 9.9 18.1 16.0 1.3 5.4 13.0 25.1 25.7 6.7 13.8 19.2
Amazon AMZN US USD NR 97.1 n.a. 990.8 15.2 12.9 49.0 29.9 n.a. 1.9 19.8 0.0 12.7 15.3 0.8 17.7
Salesforce CRM US USD NR 155.1 n.a. 155.1 35.0 15.8 n.a. 32.6 n.a. 6.5 28.6 0.9 7.9 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Oracle ORCL US USD NR 79.9 n.a. 215.4 22.2 11.8 35.5 16.2 n.a. 5.6 25.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
VMware VMW US USD NR 115.3 n.a. 49.0 17.4 11.4 29.8 17.9 n.a. 4.2 12.4 32.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dropbox DBX US USD NR 22.4 n.a. 8.1 10.4 10.0 14.3 13.6 1.3 3.5 9.9 n.a. n.a. 11.4 10.9 38.9
China Mean 9.8 8.5 14.6 12.9 2.5 3.8 24.8 13.1 10.6 13.1 8.5 12.8
Global Mean 18.6 12.7 29.0 21.6 1.3 4.5 18.7 20.2 20.8 11.1 8.5 25.3
Social network & pan-entertainment
Tencent 700 HK HKD BUY 294.4 430.0 360.5 13.3 10.9 21.0 17.1 3.9 4.3 17.0 13.5 15.7 4.6 5.3 7.5
Bilibili BILI US USD BUY 15.5 31.0 6.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. 20.8 n.a. n.a.
China Literature 772 HK HKD HOLD 28.5 68.0 3.7 14.5 11.4 19.9 16.5 1.4 3.2 16.4 6.4 7.9 3.4 14.5 n.a.
Kuaishou 1024 HK HKD NR 52.8 n.a. 29.0 n.a. 45.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 16.3 n.a. n.a.
Tencent Music TME US USD NR 22.6 n.a. 9.9 10.0 8.9 14.9 13.6 n.a. 2.5 20.7 6.8 6.6 n.a. n.a. 17.0
Weibo WB US USD NR 14.8 n.a. 3.5 5.5 4.7 6.7 6.0 n.a. 1.8 10.3 9.0 11.5 1.5 n.a. n.a.
iQiyi IQ US USD NR 2.9 n.a. 2.5 8.8 10.5 n.a. 20.2 n.a. 0.6 n.a. 4.1 8.7 n.a. n.a. n.a.
YY YY US USD NR 29.9 n.a. 2.1 n.a. n.a. 14.9 12.3 0.4 0.9 10.3 1.2 2.6 4.5 41.2 95.9
Momo MOMO US USD NR 5.8 n.a. 1.1 0.3 0.3 4.7 4.4 n.a. 0.6 4.6 13.1 13.0 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Huya HUYA US USD NR 2.8 n.a. 0.7 8.2 11.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Douyu DOYU US USD NR 1.2 n.a. 0.4 21.2 n.a. n.a. 33.9 n.a. 0.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Meta FB US USD NR 113.2 n.a. 300.2 5.7 6.0 11.3 13.0 n.a. 2.6 6.5 19.4 17.9 6.5 n.a. n.a.
Netflix NFLX US USD NR 306.0 n.a. 136.2 23.4 20.9 27.0 25.7 n.a. 4.3 n.a. 24.8 21.1 12.0 4.7 6.7
Snapchat SNAP US USD NR 11.1 n.a. 17.9 n.a. 28.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 15.8 n.a. n.a.
Spotify SPOT US USD NR 82.5 n.a. 15.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 15.0 n.a. n.a.
China Mean 10.2 12.9 13.7 15.5 1.9 1.7 13.2 7.7 9.4 10.3 20.3 40.1
Global Mean 14.5 18.4 19.2 19.4 n.a. 3.1 6.5 22.1 19.5 12.3 4.7 6.7
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EV/EBITDA P/OCF
Bloomberg CMS Mkt cap P/E (x) PEG* P/S (x) ROE (%) 2021-2023E CAGR
Company Ccy Price CMS TP (X) (x)
Ticker Rating (USD bn)
FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E FY22E FY22E FY22E FY22E FY23E Sales EPS EBITDA
Online Gaming
Netease NTES US USD BUY 71.3 120.0 46.8 8.4 7.8 14.2 13.9 2.0 3.3 14.4 21.4 18.8 10.8 7.0 15.4
Tencent 700 HK HKD BUY 294.4 430.0 360.5 13.3 10.9 21.0 17.1 3.9 4.3 17.0 13.5 15.7 4.6 5.3 7.5
Bilibili BILI US USD BUY 15.5 31.0 6.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. 20.8 n.a. n.a.
Kingsoft 3888 HK HKD BUY 26.4 34.0 4.6 10.9 8.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.4 n.a. n.a. 2.1 19.1 n.a 26.5
iDreamSky 1119 HK HKD BUY 4.4 4.4 0.8 24.6 12.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.9 n.a. n.a. 3.4 15.8 n.a. 64.3
XD 2400 HK HKD NR 5.7 n.a. 0.5 5.9 3.2 11.5 6.4 n.a. 2.7 n.a. 18.0 27.7 50.6 n.a. 30.5
Netdragon 777 HK HKD NR 15.1 n.a. 1.0 2.6 2.3 6.5 5.1 0.2 0.9 3.8 14.6 16.7 16.5 25.9 9.9
CMGE 302 HK HKD NR 1.8 n.a. 0.6 7.5 5.2 9.5 6.9 0.9 1.2 10.1 7.4 10.2 8.1 10.1 7.3
IGG 799 HK HKD NR 2.9 n.a. 0.4 n.a. 15.6 n.a. 14.2 n.a. 0.6 n.a. n.a. 5.3 2.5 n.a. n.a.
Archosaur Game 9990 HK HKD NR 4.2 n.a. 0.4 n.a. 2.7 n.a. 23.2 n.a. 3.1 n.a. n.a. 3.8 52.6 n.a. n.a.
SEA SE US USD NR 58.8 n.a. 33.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. 26.2 n.a. n.a.
Nintendo 7974 JP JPY NR 5,815.0 n.a. 54.2 9.0 10.2 14.1 16.3 n.a. 4.0 23.3 27.0 21.6 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Activision Blizzard ATVI US USD NR 74.4 n.a. 58.2 17.5 13.1 25.1 19.5 4.3 7.3 25.2 12.0 13.2 8.8 5.8 7.0
Electronic Arts EA US USD NR 129.3 n.a. 35.7 23.4 13.2 n.a. 17.7 n.a. 5.7 20.9 11.5 20.2 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Take-Two TTWO US USD NR 100.8 n.a. 16.9 26.8 20.0 44.9 25.2 n.a. 5.4 n.a. n.a. 3.3 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Nexon 3659 JP JPY NR 2,708.0 n.a. 16.8 15.1 11.8 21.6 20.9 n.a. 6.7 22.1 12.9 12.7 13.0 n.a. 14.5
Ncsoft 036570 KS KRW NR 461,000.0 n.a. 7.6 12.0 11.4 19.8 19.5 2.2 3.9 15.1 15.7 14.7 5.3 9.1 20.9
Zynga ZNGA US USD NR 8.2 n.a. 9.3 16.4 14.9 26.0 20.6 n.a. 3.3 15.5 n.a. n.a. 8.4 n.a. 54.2
Netmarble 251270 KS KRW NR 50,900.0 n.a. 3.3 32.5 16.4 n.a. 29.3 n.a. 1.6 (17.8) n.a. 2.6 5.9 n.a. 2.5
China Mean 10.2 7.7 12.9 12.7 1.8 2.5 12.0 16.1 12.2 19.3 11.1 22.1
Global Mean 19.1 13.9 25.3 21.1 3.2 4.5 14.9 15.8 12.6 11.3 7.4 19.8
E-commerce
JD.com JD US USD BUY 53.5 72.0 83.5 14.9 11.5 24.8 18.0 0.7 0.5 20.1 10.5 13.2 17.2 34.1 45.3
Alibaba BABA US USD BUY 78.2 142.0 206.9 5.9 5.5 9.5 10.4 n.a. 1.6 10.3 15.2 13.1 8.8 n.a. n.a.
Meituan 3690 HK HKD BUY 162.3 261.0 128.4 n.a. 49.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.8 n.a. n.a. 8.4 24.9 n.a. n.a.
Pinduoduo PDD US USD NR 67.6 n.a. 85.4 17.8 14.2 21.0 16.8 0.4 4.9 15.0 27.5 25.8 27.4 54.8 99.8
Beike BEKE US USD NR 14.8 n.a. 18.8 41.6 16.6 n.a. 26.4 2.3 2.1 n.a. 2.0 6.2 n.a. 38.7 14.2
Vipshop VIPS US USD NR 8.9 n.a. 5.7 3.3 3.1 6.7 6.4 n.a. 0.4 5.9 14.0 12.8 n.a. n.a. 0.4
Baozun BZUN US USD NR 4.2 n.a. 0.2 6.3 4.3 8.6 4.0 0.2 0.2 5.5 1.1 5.4 5.2 45.2 9.2
Amazon AMZN US USD NR 97.1 n.a. 990.8 15.2 12.9 49.0 29.9 n.a. 1.9 19.8 0.0 12.7 15.3 0.8 17.7
eBay EBAY US USD NR 45.5 n.a. 24.7 8.5 8.7 11.7 11.4 1.6 2.6 8.8 31.5 47.1 0.6 7.5 n.a.
China Mean 15.0 14.6 16.0 14.4 0.9 1.8 12.9 11.6 12.3 16.8 41.4 35.7
Global Mean 11.9 10.8 30.3 20.6 1.6 2.3 14.3 15.8 29.9 7.9 4.2 17.7
Vertical
trip.com TCOM US USD NR 28.8 n.a. 18.5 n.a. 23.3 n.a. 19.9 n.a. 6.6 34.7 0.4 3.9 21.7 n.a. n.a.
Autohome ATHM US USD NR 29.3 n.a. 3.7 2.6 2.2 12.9 12.1 n.a. 3.8 12.2 8.1 8.3 0.6 n.a. n.a.
Tongcheng-Elong 780 HK HKD NR 16.6 n.a. 4.7 27.3 14.1 40.8 21.8 1.1 4.9 34.2 3.8 7.6 9.9 35.6 17.0
Expedia EXPE US USD NR 97.5 n.a. 15.2 6.7 5.8 13.9 10.4 n.a. 1.3 4.0 37.0 40.2 29.2 n.a. 67.8
China Mean 12.2 11.4 22.5 16.1 1.1 4.1 21.3 12.3 15.0 15.4 35.6 42.4
Note: Closing prices as of Nov. 16, 2022 (All markets); For future estimates of NR Co.s, BBG consensus used; Sources: BBG, Company, CMS (HK) estimates
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Financial Summary
Profit & Loss Balance Sheet
RMB mn FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E RMB mn FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
PPE 59,843 61,914 56,137 59,528 61,052
Revenue 482,064 560,118 554,663 612,499 687,048
Intangible assets 159,437 171,376 184,713 193,784 198,539
Cost of revenue (260,532) (314,174) (313,650) (336,424) (372,891)
Cash and cash equivalents 152,798 167,966 246,970 365,356 545,825
Gross profit 221,532 245,944 241,012 276,074 314,157
Term deposits 100,168 103,304 104,337 105,380 106,434
Interest income 6,957 6,650 9,681 13,125 18,175 Investment in associates & JV 305,258 323,188 316,591 334,192 351,089
Other gains, net 57,131 149,467 42,791 18,375 20,611 Available-for-sale investments 0 0 0 0 0
Selling and marketing (33,758) (40,594) (31,818) (36,750) (41,223) Financial assets at fair value 385,628 453,014 390,102 402,600 415,653
Operating profit 55% 47% -42% 6% 20% Non-controlling interests 74,059 70,394 71,334 76,265 81,918
Total Equity 778,043 876,693 859,648 980,063 1,147,998
Non-IFRS net profit 30% 1% -9% 24% 20%
Profitability
Cashflow
ROE 21% 16% 13% 16% 16%
RMB mn FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
Gross margin 46% 44% 43% 45% 46%
CF from operating activities 194,119 175,186 209,953 224,907 271,681
Non-IFRS operating margin 31% 28% 28% 29% 31% Net profit 160,125 227,810 109,988 129,639 156,810
Non-IFRS net margin 25% 22% 20% 23% 24% D&A 50,774 57,670 54,019 66,959 82,718
Per share (RMB) Share-based compensation 12,634 21,625 25,148 24,500 27,482
Impairment provision for
Diluted EPS 16.5 23.2 11.2 12.8 15.5 6,642 16,315 15,829 6,200 6,552
associates
Non-IFRS basic EPS 12.9 13.0 11.8 14.6 17.4 Working capital chg 27,423 891 (11,426) 611 5,120
Non-IFRS diluted EPS 12.7 12.8 11.5 14.3 17.1 Others (63,479) (149,125) 16,396 (3,001) (7,001)
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.9 12.6 13.3 10.9 9.1 CF from financing activities 13,647 21,620 (101,187) 3,445 24,355
Borrowings 44,490 59,790 50,994 37,168 40,712
P/E (x) 20.0 19.0 21.0 17.1 14.3
Dividends (10,339) (12,503) (23,977) (33,723) (16,357)
P/B (x) 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.2
Others (20,504) (25,667) (128,204) 0 0
Dividend yield (%) 0.54 0.54 1.46 0.71 0.81
Exchange rate changes (6,004) (3,089) 0 0 0
Note: Closing price as of Nov. 16, 2022 Net cash flow 19,807 15,168 79,004 118,386 180,469
Sources: Bloomberg, Company, CMS (HK) estimates
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Investment Ratings
Industry Rating Definition
OVERWEIGHT Expect sector to outperform the market over the next 12 months
NEUTRAL Expect sector to perform in-line with the market over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT Expect sector to underperform the market over the next 12 months
Analyst Disclosure
The analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby
certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such
analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Regulatory Disclosure
Disclaimer
This document is prepared by China Merchants Securities (HK) Co Limited. The information contained herein has
been obtained from or is based on sources believed to be reliable. China Merchant Securities (HK) Co Limited, its
holding company or affiliated companies, or any of its or their directors, officers or employees (collectively “CMS”)
do not represent or warrant, expressly or impliedly, that it is accurate, correct or complete and it should not be relied
upon. CMS will not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any use of or reliance upon this document or
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expressly or impliedly, as an advice, offer or solicitation of an offer, invitation, advertisement, inducement,
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Opinions, and associated estimates and forecasts, or any content and information in this document are only current
as of the date of their publication and will be subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not
indicative of future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be
realized. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in
materially different results. Opinions expressed herein may differ or be contrary to those expressed by other
business divisions or other members of CMS as a result of using different assumptions and/or criteria.
This document has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and investment
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