Bangladesh Economic and Financial Indicators, June 2021

Bangladesh: Selected Indicators

Both infections of and deaths due to COVID-19, which had The vaccination rollout has been slower than expected,
been declining since end-April, are now picking up again. reflecting supply delays, with approximately 5.8 million
persons having received vaccinations thus far.
New confirmed cases of and deaths due to COVID-19 Number of registration and people who received
(Mar 14, 2020- Jun 07, 2021) vaccination 1/
Feb 10, 2021- Jun 07, 2021 (in Million)
Daily new confirmed cases
Daily new confirmed deaths (RHS) Registration Vaccination
10000 120 8.0
8000
80 6.0
6000
4000 4.0
40
2000 2.0
0 0 0.0
10/16/2020

11/21/2020

12/27/2020
4/1/2020

5/7/2020

8/5/2020

2/1/2021

3/9/2021

5/2/2021

6/7/2021
3/14/2020

4/19/2020

5/25/2020
6/12/2020
6/30/2020
7/18/2020

8/23/2020
9/10/2020
9/28/2020

11/3/2020

12/9/2020

1/14/2021

2/19/2021

3/27/2021
4/14/2021

5/20/2021

3/9/2021

4/5/2021

5/2/2021

6/7/2021
2/10/2021

2/19/2021

2/28/2021

3/18/2021

3/27/2021

4/14/2021

4/23/2021

5/11/2021

5/20/2021

5/29/2021
Mobility which declined in April, reflecting a slowdown of
Bangladesh continues to fall below the Asian average for
economic activity, started increasing since May.
vaccine doses administered (per 100 people).

Community mobility changes 2/

COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people
Feb 2020-Jun 2021
as on June 06, 2021 unless otherwise mentioned
(percent change from baseline)
(Jun 05, 2021) Retail and recreation Supermarket and pharmacy
United Kingdom 100.2 Parks Public transport
United States 90.2 Workplaces Residential
China 54.0
Europe 51.6 80
Hong Kong 35.2
Cambodia 28.6 (Jun 03, 2021) 40
World 27.6
Asia 26.2
South Korea 19.3 0
India 16.5
Japan 13.6
Malaysia 10.8 (Jun 05, 2021) -40
Sri Lanka 10.7
Indonesia 10.5
-80
Bangladesh 6.1
Nov-20
Jun-20

Sep-20

Jun-21
Jul-20
Aug-20
Feb-20

Apr-20
May-20

May-21
Mar-20

Feb-21

Apr-21
Dec-20

Mar-21
Jan-21
5.4
Oct-20
Philippines
Africa 2.6
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Migrant outflows to remittance-heavy countries had Monthly remittance inflows, which trended down from
dropped in the last two months reflecting the domestic September 2020 to February 2021, has started picking up
lockdown and international travel bans. since March.
Overseas employment: country-wise migrant outflows Wage earners' remittance inflows: country wise
Jan 2019- May 2021 (in thousands) Jan 2019- May 2021 (in Billion USD)
KSA UAE Kuwait KSA UAE Kuwait
Oman Qatar Malaysia Oman Qatar Malaysia
Singapore Others Total Singapore Others Total
80
3.0

60
2.0
40

1.0
20

0 0.0
Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jul-19

Jul-20

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
May-19

May-20

May-21

Jul-19

Jul-20
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

May-19

May-20

May-21
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

1/ Vaccination data takes into account only the first-dose receivers. As on June 7th, 4,216,696 people received the second dose. 2/ The baseline is
the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the five-week period 3 Jan-6 Feb 2020. June 2021 data is as of June 4th, 2021.
Sources: Google's COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports; Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare,
Bangladesh; Bureau of Manpower Employment and Training (BEMT); and IMF staff calculations
 Bangladesh: Real Sector Developments
Private consumption and investment contributed 2.5 and Consumption to GDP ratio in FY20 fell slightly to 74.7
1.6 percentage points, and public consumption and percent from 75 percent in FY19, while the investment to
investment contributed 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points, GDP ratio edged up from 31.6 percent to 31.8 percent.
respectively, to the real GDP growth in FY20.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth 1/ Selected indicators’ Share in Nominal GDP 1/

FY11-FY20 (y/y, in percentage points) FY11-FY20 (in percent)
Private Consumption Public Consumption Investment Export
Private Investment Public Investment Import Remittance
Net exports Statiscal discrepancy Consumption (RHS)
GDP growth
40 80
12

8 30 78

4 20 76

0 10 74

-4 0 72
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Compared with FY20, the y/y growth of the quantum Rice production target, in FY21, was set at 36.2 MMT
indices highlight a pickup in the activity in the first seven reflecting the actual production in FY20 (38.7 MMT). Total
months of FY21, with some decline in mining starting target for wheat and maize, in FY21, was set at 7 MMT
December 2020. reflecting the outturn of 6.7 MMT in FY20.

Quantum Index of Medium and Large-Scale Major Food Grains Production 2/

Manufacturing Industries, Mining and Electricity 1/
FY16-FY21 (Jan) (y/y growth, in percent) FY14-FY21 (Million Metric Tons (MMT))
Manufacturing Mining Electricity Aus Aman Boro Wheat Maize
20 50
45
10 40
0 35
-10 30
25
-20 20
-30 15
10
FY21 (Oct)
FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21(Aug)

FY21 (Dec)
FY21(Sep)
FY21(Jul)

FY21 (Jan)
FY21 (Nov)

5
0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21

Headline inflation, in May 2021, decreased to 5.3 percent

Twelve-month average headline inflation, in May 2021, from 5.6 percent in Apr 2021. During the same period, food
remained same at 5.6 percent in Apr 2021. inflation decreased to 4.9 percent from 5.6 percent, while
Twelve Month Average Inflation
non-food inflation increased to 5.9 percent from 5.6 percent.
May 2018-May 2021 (y/y, in percent)
Point-to-Point Inflation
May 2018-May 2021 (y/y, in percent)
General Food General Food
Non Food Core
Non Food Core
8 8
7
6
6

4 5
4
2 3
Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

1/ FY20 and FY21 data are provisional. 2/ FY21 Aus and Aman data are actual, while Boro, wheat and Maize data are the production targets.
Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS); Department of Agriculture Extension, Ministry of Agriculture; Bangladesh Bank; and IMF staff calculations

2
 Bangladesh: External Sector Developments
Current account balance, in FY21(Jul-Apr), decreased to a Capital goods contributed positively (1.1 percentage points),
USD 0.05 billion deficit, compared with the USD 3.8 billion oil-related products, and food grains and consumer goods
deficit in FY20 (Jul-Apr). also contributed positively (3.1 and 2.5 percentage points
respectively) to the overall growth in imports (13 percent) in
Current Account Balance Components 1/
FY21(Jul-Apr).
FY16-FY21(Jul-Apr) (in billion USD)
Exports Imports Item-wise Contributions to Import Growth 2/
Services Primary Income FY17-FY21(Jul-Apr), (y/y growth, in percentage points)
Workers' Remittances Other Secondary Income
Current Account Balance Other items Other capital goods
70 Capital machinery Other intermediate goods
Plastics and rubber articles thereof Fertilizer
50 Chemicals Petroleum, oil and lubricants
Iron, steel and other base metals RMG intermediate goods
30 Consumer goods Food grains
Total
10 30
-10 20
10
-30
0
-50 -10
-70 -20
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY20 FY21 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY21 FY21
(Jul-Apr)(Jul-Apr) (Jul-Dec) (Jul-Mar) (Jul-Apr)

Remittances, y/y in FY21(Jul-Apr), grew significantly by

38.9 percent. Export growth was 9 percent, while Reflecting the pick-up in import payments, international
imports witnessed 13 percent growth over the same reserve coverage has recently started to decline and is
period. currently at about 7 months of import coverage.

Major Balance of Payments Components 3/ International Reserves 4/

FY16-FY21(Jul-Apr) (y/y growth, in percent) May 2018-May 2021
(In billion USD, unless otherwise indicated)
Exports RMG Exports
Gross International Reserves (valuation adjusted)
Other Exports Imports
Net International Reserves (BB definition)
Remittance Reserves (months of imports, valuation adjusted, RHS)
40 48 10
30 36 8
20 6
24
4
10 12 2
0 0 0
-10
Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
-20
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 (Jul-
Apr)

Trade competitiveness has somewhat improved, in recent Both letters of credit (LC) opening and settlement have been
months, mostly reflecting the depreciation of the Taka picking up in FY21.
relative to the currency basket of Bangladesh’s trading Sector-wise contributions to total LC opening
partners. and settlement
Exchange Rates FY19-FY21 (Jul-Mar) (y/y, in percentage points)
Apr 2018-Apr 2021 Consumer Goods Capital Machinery
Intermediate Goods Petroleum
Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (2010=100) Industrial Raw Materials Others
Real Effective Exchange Rate (2010=100) Total
20
Taka per USD (Period average, RHS)
160 86
10
85
120 84 0

83 -10
80 82
-20
Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20
Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20
Apr-18

Feb-19
Apr-19

Feb-20
Apr-20

Feb-21
Apr-21
Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20
Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

Opening Settlement Opening Settlement Opening Settlement Opening Settlement

FY19 FY20 FY21 (Jul-Dec) FY21 (Jul-Mar)

1/ FY21(Jul-Apr) data are provisional. 2/ Data are recorded by customs. 3/ Exports and imports are f.o.b. data. 4/ Net international reserve (NIR) is
gross international reserves (excluding investment on bonds below the grade BBB, Silver Acquisition A/C, deposit with Rupali Bank, Pakistan &
deposit with Sonali Bank, UK) minus total liabilities. Total liabilities comprise reserve liabilities in ACU, IMF Trust Fund Account (ECF) and other
foreign currency clearing accounts, and deposits of IBRD/IDA, and SDR allocation.
Sources: Bangladesh Bank; Export Promotion Bureau (EPB); and IMF staff calculations
l d h k
3
 Bangladesh: Fiscal Sector Developments 1/

Total revenue-GDP ratio, in FY20, declined to 9.5 percent Total revenue, in FY20, grew by 4.9 percent (y/y) where VAT
from 10 percent in FY19. Total revenue-GDP ratio, in FY21 and supplementary duties contributed negatively (3.9
(Jul-Apr), was at 8.2 percent compared with 7.4 percent in percentage points). Preliminary data available as of June 6th,
FY20 (Jul-Apr). VAT and the supplementary duties-GDP suggest that total revenue, in FY21 (Jul-Apr), has increased
ratio, during the same period, increased from 3.3 percent by 17.7 percent (y/y) and the increase in the growth in VAT
to 3.7 percent. and supplementary taxes has had the largest impact (by 9.4
percentage points).
Central Government Revenue Contributions to Total Revenue Generation
FY16-FY21 (Jul-Apr) (In percent of GDP) FY16-FY21 (Jul-Apr) (y/y, in percentage points)
Other VAT and supplementary duties Other VAT and supplementary duties
Customs duties Taxes on income and profits Customs duties Taxes on income and profits
Total revenue Total revenue
12 20
15
8 10
5
4 0
-5
0 -10

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY20 FY21 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 (Jul-
(Jul-Apr) (Jul-Apr) Apr)

Total expenditure-GDP ratio, in FY20, marginally declined Total expenditure, in FY20, increased by 7.3 percent (y/y),
to 15 percent from 15.4 percent in FY19. Total with ADP expenditure contributing 2.1 percentage points.
expenditure-GDP ratio, in FY21 (Jul-Apr), decreased to 8.5 Total expenditure, in FY21 (Jul-Apr), declined by 1.8 percent
percent from 9.6 percent. During the same period, ADP (y/y), where ADP expenditure contributed negative 3.6
execution decreased from 2.7 percent to 2.2 percent of percentage points.
GDP.
Contributions to central government’s expenditure growth
Central Government Expenditure FY16-FY21 (Jul-Apr) (y/y, in percentage points)
FY16-FY21 (Jul-Apr) (In percent of GDP) Other expenditure
Other expenditure Interest payments
Interest payments Annual development programme (ADP)
Annual development programme (ADP) Subsidies, transfer and net lending
Subsidies, transfer and net lending Pay and allowances
Pay and allowances Total Expenditure
Total Expenditure 25
18 20
15
12 10
5
6 0
-5
-10
0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY20 FY21 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 (Jul-
(Jul-Apr) (Jul-Apr) Apr)

Total central government debt, at end-Jun 2020, reached

Compared to the same period in the previous FY, the
37.5 percent of GDP from 35.3 percent of GDP at end-Jun
budget deficit in FY21 (Jul – Apr) has been primarily
2019. It reached 34.8 percent at end-Apr 2021, where
financed by issuing NSCs.
domestic debt accounted for roughly two thirds of the total
Fiscal Balance and Sources of Financing
central government debt.
FY16-FY21 (Jul-Apr)
Central Government Debt
(Billion Taka)
Jun 2016-Apr 2021
Net domestic financing: nonbanks, except NSD
Net domestic financing: NSD (In percent of GDP)
Net domestic financing: banks
Net external financing External debt Domestic debt
Net Finnacing 40
2000 35
1500 30
1000 25
500 20
0 15
-500 10
-1000 5
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY20 FY21 0
(Jul-Apr) (Jul-Apr) Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Apr-21

1/ FY20 and FY21 fiscal data are provisional. FY21 (Jul-Apr) GDP data is annualized using provisional GDP of FY20, and IMF staff projected GDP for FY21.
Sources: Office of the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), Ministry of Finance; and IMF Staff calculations

4
 Bangladesh: Monetary and Financial Market Developments
Reserve money, at end-Mar 2021, grew by 11.3 percent Broad money (M2), at end-Mar 2021, grew by 13.2 percent
(y/y) compared with 19.7 percent (y/y) in Feb 2021, with private sector credit and net foreign assets contributing
mainly driven by net foreign assets. 7.2 and 6.3 percentage points, respectively, to this growth.

Contributions to Reserve Money Growth Contributions to Broad Money (M2) Growth

Jan 2018-Mar 2021 (y/y, in percentage points) Jan 2018-Mar 2021 (y/y, in percentage points)
Other net domestic assets Other domestic assets
Non-reserve liabilities to DMBs Claims on the private sector
Claims on DMBs Net claims on central government
Net claims on government Net foreign assets
Net foreign assets Broad money
Reserve Money 20
40 15
30
10
20
5
10
0
0
-10 -5
-20 -10

Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20
May-18

May-19

May-20
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20
May-18

May-19

May-20
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Broad money (M3) growth reached 12.6 percent, in Mar Interest rates, which have been declining since April 2020-
2021, with M2 and NSC sales accounting for 10.6 and 2.2 reflect an easing in the money market.
percentage points respectively.

Contributions to Broad Money (M3) Growth Interest Rates 1/

Mar 2018-Mar 2021 (y/y, in percentage points) May 2018-May 2021 (in percentage points)
Other Deposit Rate
M2 Lending Rate
National Savings Certificates (NSC) Call Money Rate
Broad Money (M3) 91-DAY TREASURY BILLS
14 2-YEAR TREASURY BONDS
12
10
10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
-2
Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20
May-18

May-19

May-20
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Excess liquid assets (as percent of total demand and time Growth of bank advances to the private sector edged down to
liabilities in the industry), in Mar 2021, reached 15.2 9.5 percent in Q2 FY21 mostly driven by lower advances to
percent compared with 7.9 percent in Mar 2020. trade and commerce, and industrial working capital
Excess Liquid Assets (as percent of total time and financing
demand liabilities) 2/, Jan 2018-Mar 2021 Economic Purpose-wise Contributions to Bank
Foreign Banks
Advances’ Growth (Private Sector)
Islamic Banks FY16-Q2 FY21 (y/y, in percentage point)
Private Banks (Other than Islamic) Others Consumer finance
Other Institutional loan Trade & Commerce
Specialised Banks Transport Construction
State-owned Banks Industry: Working capital financing Industry: Term loan
Agriculture: Others Agriculture: Crops
Total
18 Total
16 20
14
12 15
10
8
6 10
4
2 5
0
Jan-18

May-18

May-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Mar-18

Oct-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Oct-20

Mar-21
Feb-18

Aug-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Aug-20
Sep-18
Jul-18

Dec-18

Dec-19

Jul-20

Dec-20
Jun-20

0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21

1/ Call money rate, 91-Day Treasury Bills rate, and 2-Year Treasury Bonds rate are as on May 24th, 2021.
2/ Excess Liquidity is statutory liquidity eligible liquid assets of banks minus statutory liquidity (excluding cash reserve). Excess Reserve is balance
with Bangladesh Bank in local currency minus required cash reserve. These are provisional data taken from Bangladesh Bank’s Department of Off-
Site Supervision. Sources: Bangladesh Bank; and IMF Staff calculations

5
 Bangladesh: Monetary and Financial Market Developments… Contd.

CAR of the banking industry, at Mar 2021, reached 11.7

The loan-to-deposit ratio, in Mar 2021, reached to 81.9
percent from 11.6 percent in Dec 2020. CAR of the state-
percent from 81.2 percent in Nov 2020. During the
owned banks (SOBs), in Mar 2021, increased to 6.5 percent
period, the ratio (excluding government deposits)
from 4.3 percent in Dec 2020 remaining below the regulatory
increased from 86.9 percent to 87.7 percent.
requirement of 10 percent.
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio
Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR)
Mar 2018-Mar 2021 (in percent)
Dec 2016-Mar 2021 (in percent)
Loan-to-deposit ratio 30
Loan-to-deposit ratio (excl. govt. deposits) 25
20
95
90 15
85 10
80 5
75 0

Mar-21

Mar-21

Mar-21

Mar-21
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20

Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20

Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20

Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20
May-18

May-19

May-20
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Banking Sector SOBs PCBs FCBs

Banking sector’s NPL ratio, in Dec 2020, decreased to 8.1

Stressed advances in the banking industry (sum of NPLs,
percent from 9.3 percent in Dec 2019. In SOBs, the ratio
rescheduled and restructured loans), at end-Dec 2018,
has down to 21 percent (from 23.9 percent), and to 4.8
accounted for 20.5 percent of outstanding loans.
percent (from 5.8 percent) in the case of private
commercial banks (PCBs).
Stressed Advances
Non-Performing Loan (NPL) Ratio
Dec 2014-Dec 2018 (in percent of loans)
Dec 2016-Dec 2020 (in percent of loans)
35 Stressed Advances NPL
30
30
25
20
20
15
10
10
5
0
0
Sep-20

Sep-20

Sep-20

Sep-20
Jun-20

Jun-20

Jun-20
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19

Jun-20
Dec-20
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19

Dec-20
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19

Dec-20
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

Banking Sector SOBs PCBs FCBs

The 3-mma turnover has been steadily declining since Jan

2021.
Banking sector advance-GDP ratio, at end-Q2 FY21,
Dhaka Stock Market Performance 3/
reached 37.3 percent slightly lower than the 37.5 percent Apr 2018-Apr 2021
at end-FY20. (3-month moving average)

Banking Sector Advance-GDP ratio 1, 2/

DSE Broad Index
FY16- Q2 FY21 (in percent of GDP) Turnover (in billions of Taka, RHS)
Price Volatility (3 months moving standard deviation, RHS)
6500 350
Foreign commercial banks
Private commercial banks
6000
Specialised banks 250
State owned commercial banks
50 5500
150
5000
50
4500

4000 -50
Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20
Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20
Apr-18

Feb-19
Apr-19

Feb-20
Apr-20

Feb-21
Apr-21
Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20
Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21

1/ Two of the four specialised banks became state-owned commercial banks in FY15. 2/ FY21 Q1 and Q2 GDP data are annualized using
provisional GDP of FY20, and IMF staff projected GDP for FY21. 3/ Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, in Apr 2020 there was no stock market
transaction.