Politics

Essien Oku Essien

Electoral Zoning Saga and Public

Persuasion.A Prospective Evaluation of the
2023 Cross River State Gubernatorial
Election Outcome

Scientific Essay
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Essien Oku Essien

Electoral Zoning Saga and Public Persuasion. A Prospec-

tive Evaluation of the 2023 Cross River State Guberna-
torial Election Outcome

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ELECTORAL ZONING SAGA AND PUBLIC PERSUASION: A PROSPECTIVE EVALUATION
OF THE 2023 CROSS RIVER STATE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION OUTCOME

ESSIEN OKU ESSIEN

ABSTRACT

This article examined the Electoral Zoning Saga and Public Persuasion: A Prospective Evaluation
of the 2023 Cross River State Gubernatorial Election Outcome. Critically deliberating on the two
schools of thoughts existent in this context – one which agrees with the implementation of the
political zoning standard and the other which disagrees in disagreement. The agenda setting theory
as well as the social judgement theory were adopted in the article to establish a workable theoretical
framework. The study employed the interpretivist paradigm of qualitative analysis and a finding
from textual analysis of respondents speech contents portray that campaign contents that will not
reflect unity and social cohesion void of ethnic bias will increase the difficulties in the state.

INTRODUCTION Elections are an essential mechanism and

practical tool for guaranteeing the smooth
In Nigeria's democratic system, elections have
turnover of power in a democracy's management
always been a fundamental means of determining
of leadership. As a result, every administration
who will be in charge. This country's history is
develops political legitimacy and authority. In a
littered with examples of its leaders being elected
democracy, elections play a critical role in
at practically every level of government, only to
expressing the will of the people, inducing
be cut short by military takeovers and other
political change, and establishing the legitimacy
interruptions to the electoral process (JEJE,
of regimes. On the other hand, OJIE (2006)
ADEBAYO AND AZAIGBA, 2022). According
asserts that elections show how popular a
to OJIE (2006), people in positions of authority
government is and exposes the social contract
in a democracy do so with the explicit consent
that exists between the government and the
and lawful mandate expressed by the voters on a
governed, which displays the basis of political
regular basis through an open, free, and fair
authority, legitimacy, and citizens'
electoral process. A democratic government is
responsibilities. Political accountability between
one in which the people are in charge, but only if
the governors and governed is shaped and
they can agree on the pace with the people they
enhanced by reciprocity and trade in this way, as
govern.
well (OSINAKACHUKWU & JAWAN, 2011).

1 
 
Nigeria's elections have thus far defied the
cornerstone of democracy because of the
establishment of political zoning standards
(VANGUARD, 2022). Unfortunately, Nigeria
belongs to the unfortunate group of countries in
Africa, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa, where
elections are poorly managed. All of this is done
in order to facilitate the creation of a 'biased'
political zoning schedule from a certain
geographic area, which may at some point be the
most unfulfilling location.
Due to political differences, the country has been
plagued by political instability as a result of the
use of zoning (SUN, 2022). Cross River State,
like every other state in the federation, uses a
zoning arrangement to swap power between the
northern, central, and southern senatorial districts.
According to external interpretations of the
SAHARA REPORTERS (2022), it is understood
by the people through evident scenarios that
candidates may be selected alternately from the
north, centre, or south and presented to voters in
manipulated polls. In Nigeria, the topic of zoning
has been a difficult one, and this is evident in
various states. True federalism in a state like
Cross River, which has a rich cultural, linguistic,
and economic diversity, must show a sincere
effort to regulate among the groups and a
reflection of these distinct differences in a
framework of sustainable unity.
Cross River State, on the other hand, is home to
more than 150 distinct linguistic communities. A
geographical division of the groups is made up of
2 
eighteen different local government areas: Abi,
Akamkpa, Akpabuyo, Bakassi, Bekwarra, Biase,
Boki, Calabar Municipality, Calabar South,
Etung, Ikom, Obanliku, Obudu, Obubra, Ogoja,
Odukpani, Yakurr and Yala.. Everyone wants a
chance to be the next governor, and it will be
unreasonable if only one local government area is
able to do so over and over again. In order to
develop zoning, political party zones must agree
on how they will divide power. It is actually
possible to go from north to south, central to
southern, and so forth.
The most popular type of zoning is the
"gentleman's agreement." In order to ensure a
smooth transition of power when his term ends, a
regional politician would often tell another
regional politician that he plans to secede power
to him upon tenure completion.
In 1979, the second civilian administration of
Alhaji Shehu Shagari and Dr. Alex Ekwueme
established the Nigerian political zoning system,
which laid the groundwork for the practise of
zoning in the federation's states (PREMUIM
TIMES, 2022). During an eight-year cycle, the
zoning system within states was designed to give
equal opportunity to Nigeria's north, centre, and
south to produce the governor. Consequently, the
system became a widely accepted political
practise in Nigerian culture as the nation's
political institutions matured and grew through
time. Buhari/military Idiagbon's regime abridged
the original Shagari zoning formula, which was
published in 1979. Consequently, southern
Nigerians were not be able to experience the
strategy.
After twenty-years of dangling the presidential
zoning pattern between the southern and
northern regions of Nigeria, the (PDP) Peoples
Democratic Party (PDP) was finally snatched by
the All Progressive Congress (APC) in 2015,
which had formed a coalition with the PDP to
form the Nigerian People's Party (NPP). ONI &
FAUYI (2020) shows that Nigerians need to
seriously consider whether zoning (as a social
contract) or quota can produce the best leadership
material suitable for development, which is
desperately needed at this critical time, and how
zoning both presidential and gubernatorial
elections has brought peace and stability.
It is worth considering whether or not zoning in
Cross River State and Nigeria as a whole could
constitute a compelling argument for equity.
Cohesion and trust can be fostered even in a
country as diverse as Nigeria by electing
politicians from various regions (THIS DAY,
2022).
Political power had dangled fairly between Mr.
Donald Etim Duke (1999-2007), Senator Liyel
Imoke (2007-2015), and Professor Benedict
Ayade (2015-present), all hailing from different
parts of the country's senatorial district. Professor
Ayade is the first politician to hold gubernatorial
office from the northern senatorial district
likewise others. Equal representation has always
required that the deputy governor be chosen from
3 
one of the other senatorial districts, not the
opposing parties.
However, the clamour for where the governorate
will begin counting from once again, this which
has brought about a sense of division of thoughts,
acceptance and agreement is here identified as the
problem necessary to be addressed in this article.
In the face of disagreement and splits where one
school of thought insists that the governorate can
begin from any senatorial district of the state
without necessarily going back to begin the climb
up from the South, another school of thought is in
total disagreement with this and here lies the crux
of this study.
Objectives of the Study
This article is guided by the following objectives:
1. To find out if "zoning" identified as the
problem in the article will ever work or not, in
Cross River State
2. To determine how both schools of thoughts
attempts to use the media in the persuasion of the
electorates
3. To define the effects of such employed media
on the electorates
4. To ascertain how the disparity between both
schools may likely affect the outcome of the
election in 2023.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK this, such as a billboard with traffic signs that
signal a green light for a specific senatorial
It is pertinent to examine this article using the
district (denoting "go on"), and amber and red
agenda setting and the social judgement theories.
lights for the other senatorial districts (denoting
These theories provide the theoretical insights on
"hold on") on the major roads of the state.
public persuasion in regards to the issue of
political zoning in Cross River State. The second assumption is that the more attention
an issue receives from the media, the more likely
Maxwell McCombs and Donald Shaw, two
the public is to view it as important. Employed
academics at the University of North Carolina,
major media organisations are not instructing the
introduced the Agenda Setting Theory in 1972,
public what to think or how they should feel about
and discovered that in a study of North Carolina
a story or topic, but they are providing them with
voters in 1968, what people considered the most
particular news or issues that people should pay
significant concerns were what the media
attention to more. If a billboard has the names and
reported as the most critical. Thus, the theory of
tenures of past and current governors on three
agenda-setting was established, based on the idea
framed boxes with information about their origins,
that the media sets the agenda for what people
but leaves a fourth frame blank with a "?," and a
should be concerned about (ORR &
reference to a particular senatorial district, then
HARRINGTON, 2021). The agenda-setting
the electorates will be given the impression that
theory is used to demonstrate how the electorate
any individual meant for governance must
is quietly dictated whether political candidate to
emerge from a predefined boundary, rather than
support or not based on the divergent viewpoints
imposing anyone in person on the electorates, as
of the two schools of thought. To put it another
in this example.
way, it lays out the case for why a certain
senatorial district should be recognised as the The agenda-setting theory has both psychological
governorate's above the others, using evidence and scientific merits. A story that is widely
provided through the argument's contents. reported in the media is more likely to be recalled
by the electorate when they are asked to recollect
Two fundamental assumptions underlie the
it, even if the news does not directly affect them
agenda-setting approach in use here. Billboards,
or register as a significant concern in their
shirt printing, and other outdoor media, as well as
thinking.
television and print interviews by the warring
parties, filter and shape what the electorates Carolyn Sherif, Muzafer Sherif, and Carl
should think rather than simply reflecting stories Hovland proposed the Social Judgment Theory,
to the audience.. There are several examples of which is defined as the comparison and

4 
 
evaluation of an idea with prevailing sentiments
(HOVLAND & CARL, 1980). Each new concept
is given equal weight in the thinking of the
individual, who then uses this comparison to
determine where the new idea should be placed
on the attitude scale. It is the study of human
judgement that is the focus of social judgement
theory. Although several media outlets are used
in this piece, this theory is applied to the 2023
gubernatorial election outcome based on whether
or not the public agrees or disagrees with the
schools of thought.
Persuasive communication's primary goal is to
alter people's perspectives. Social judgement
theory aims to explain how likely a person is to
change their view, the likely direction of that shift,
their tolerance for other people's opinions, and
their level of commitment to their position by
examining the conditions under which this
change occurs (MALLARD, 2010). Consider that
the electorate has two options: adopt one of the
two established viewpoints or reject it. In this
case, however, it has been found that the
electorate, if they were free to use their social
judgement and bias, would definitely choose
from the options presented by the parties, and this
supports the idea that social judgement and bias
is somewhat subject to external influences that
are beyond the control of individuals.
It is also a part of social judgement theory that
shows how people compare their own
perspectives on a given subject to those of others.
In addition to having their own views, people
5 
have a range of views about what they consider
to be acceptable or undesirable for the views of
others. Particularly when it comes to topics about
which people have strong feelings, extreme
attitudes do not build on one another. This means
that even if one's views are in the same general
direction, they may not be supported by others
who hold less radical views. The "most favoured"
and "least preferred" alternatives of two persons
may differ, even if their attitudes appear to be
equal. It is only by looking at what other
perspectives one accepts or rejects in addition to
the pressures applied by the disagreeing parties
that one can truly understand one's attitude
toward the upcoming 2023 gubernatorial race in
its entirety.
The schools of thought must first comprehend the
attitudes of the electorate in order to change an
attitude. After that, they will be able to compare
it to the electorate's perceptions of the messages
that sway them. Additionally, determining how
close or far one is is critical. It may be difficult to
persuade a southern senatorial district indigene to
accept that the governor's position should not
come from their region, but it is easier to persuade
a central senatorial indigene to work together
toward ensuring that the gubernatorial powers do
not go to the south, and this establishes that for
attitude to be changed, it must be preceded by
mobilisation for actual change in the state's
political landscape.
As a result of the argument presented, one must
now adjust their position. Once a person has
determined that a new position falls within his or
her range of acceptability, he or she will make an
adjustment to their outlook. People will change
their mindset in the opposite direction of what the
speaker is promoting if the message is deemed to
be rejected by them.
As such, schools of thought may not need to
organise for influences and instead rely on the
media's power to set the agenda, which is the
basis for the agenda setting theory. This is why
fear appeals in advertising often fail to resonate
with the target demographic. Whenever the
audience feels threatened, it is more likely that
they will do the opposite of what is recommended,
and this will lead to the desired result not being
achieved. It is also possible for a person's
immediate social surroundings to alter their
attitude. People's attitudes tend to evolve in the
interpersonal arena in order to match those of
their significant partners. Conformity and
alignment in attitudes continue to dominate the
social influence picture.
Persuasion is difficult, according to the social
judgement theory. In order for a message to be
convincing, it must be directed at the recipient's
latitude of acceptance and divergent from the
anchor position, making it impossible for the
receiver to absorb or contrast the information
they are receiving. Thus, even successful
persuasion efforts may only result in tiny shifts in
behaviour. By arguing that many messages can be
used to persuade over time, the social judgement
theory supports the agenda setting theory.
6 
RESEARCH DESIGN
This article employs the interpretivist paradigm
of qualitative analysis to evaluate in prospect, the
outcome of the forthcoming 2023 Cross River
gubernatorial election. The interpretivist
paradigm relies on a dialogue between the
researchers and their subjects to negotiate,
collaborate, and develop a meaningful
understanding of reality; this understanding is
specific to a particular time and context and
cannot be generalized. Interpretivist approaches
include interviews, observation, and textual
analysis. interpretivist paradigm has its roots in
hermeneutics, the study of the theory and practice
of interpretation. In hermeneutics the text is the
expression of the thoughts of its author, and
interpreters must attempt to put themselves
within the perception or thinking pattern of the
author in order to reconstruct the intended
meaning of the text.
According to the interpretivist paradigm, which
can alternatively be dubbed "anti-positivism" or
"naturalistic inquiry," data interpretation might
be softer and more subjective (Myers, 2008). In
social science research, it is distinguished by
three distinct schools of thought. Phenomenology,
ethnomethodology, and symbolic interactionism
are the three main schools of thought in these
fields. All three schools of thought emphasise
human engagement with phenomena in their
daily lives and advocate for a qualitative rather
than quantitative approach to sociological
research.
RESEARCH DISCOURSE
Here, three politicians conveniently selected from
the three senatorial districts are interviewed and
the contents of their responses as presented below
are transcribed in verbatim and presented in
anonymity. Two of the interviewed personalities
are from the ruling party, the All Progressive
Congress (APC) while the other is drawn from
the closest opposition party, the People's
Democratic Party (PDP).
Arising from the fact that Nigeria and Cross River
State in this regards operates the multi-party
system, the choice of the selected political parties
is as a result of the popular attention and opinions
drawn by these in the public sphere. More so, the
views of two prospective electorates are covered
herein.
1. Finding out if "zoning" identified as the
problem in this article will ever work or not, in
Cross River State
Research interviews with a member of one of the
political parties selected for the study revealed
that zoning would not yield the expected effects
for Cross River as a state. He explained that
zoning is not a constitutional issue and that
Nigerians across the political divide have not
been sincere with it so far, adding that if
Nigerians as a whole had been sincere with it,
there is a specific reference in the constitution
that would have clearly taken care of the matter.
Since the Nigerian constitution is not honest and
emphatic about zoning, it cannot be boldly fought
7 
for in Cross River State, because it is not properly
backed by legislation.
According to him, "I have always maintained on
zoning that we have the party convention already,
it is like it is almost becoming a tradition," he
continued. However, neither the 1999
Constitution modified nor the current amendment
address this issue. If zoning issues are serious
enough, no political party will willingly sell its
nomination form to candidates from districts
where it is expected that the next governor will
not be elected. " To put it another way, even those
who claim to practise zoning are not being sincere
about it. It is not based on anything solid, so it is
not sacrosanct. Since Cross Riverians desire
someone capable of taking the city to the
industrial level, it was implied that the issue was
not one of zoning but rather one of competence.
According to another political activist who
responded to the interview questions, the
southern senatorial district should typically enjoy
the privilege of producing the governor of Cross
River State in 2023 on the issue of power shift.
"Because I believe in equity and justice, I am in
favour of zoning".
2. Determining how both schools of thoughts
attempts to use the media in the persuasion of
the electorates
According to the responses gathered from a
prospective electorate, "Nigerian press is no
longer a watchdog, but rather a co-conspirator
with dishonest publications spread around the
country". Editors and publishers, he claims, are
now being paid by political candidates across the
country who support or oppose zoning to create
stories intended to persuade the public as to why
one area should be chosen for leadership over
another. It was brought to his knowledge that "a
candidate somewhere was promising through a
newspaper or something that his region is rich in
agricultural products, whose investment in such
will address food scarcity as suffered by most
Nigerians today, yet these are the same people
who will not go two miles closer to farmers when
they assume their purchased offices."
Government-owned media houses appear to have
more complicated concerns, according to a
person who responded to an inquiry about
whether or not the media houses are involved in
ongoing corrupt practises. Pointing out that it is
not good enough that civic and initiative groups
had mounted outdoor media that tends to dictate
where the next governor should come from,
putting it that Cross River Saviour can come from
anyway, as such, personalities under parties
umbrellas should be advertised and not senatorial
districts.
3. Defining The Effect of the Employed Media
on the Electorates
Speaking with a respondent who holds a key
responsibility in one of the selected political
8 
parties, he stated that the electioneering
campaigns will be more than less a football game
where people will support probably the senatorial
district where they indigenously come from and
even if they will have to support another district
other than theirs, it will definitely turn out to be a
place where they may likely have an assurance of
selfish benefits. In response to the question
portrayed to him "if the media can be hold
responsible for such claims made by him" he
added that every electorates access different
forms of the mass media, the same media which
are employed by different groups to tell the
masses where the governor should come from or
not. Adding that the political parties is yet and
will never ever use the mass media to apportion
where a candidate should come from or not,
putting it that despite the confusion everywhere,
every party has a recognised system of
conducting a primary election within the
membership of its party were a winner who turns
out to be the flag bearer is presented for the
general election. As such, the winner can come
from anywhere except if it is generally agreed
within the party that a candidate should come
from a particular region. Thus, it was pointed out
that since the political parties have the primaries
as a means for selecting itd flag bearers, there was
therefore no need for it to take to the mass media
to tell the masses where and why a candidate
should come from a particular place. Responding
to another question "does the party acknowledge
unofficial consultations that intends to influence
internal leadership towards upholding a candidate
from a particular District?" The respondent stated
clearly that this is not part of any political party
constitution as much as he knows and of such
things are going on anywhere or in other states,
he was not aware.
4. Ascertaining how the disparity between
both schools may likely affect the outcome of
the election in 2023
Speaking with a respondent who turns out to be a
prospective electorate in the forthcoming
gubernatorial election, she pointed out that it is
her expectation that after Professor Benedict
Ayade of the PDP who defected to the APC, from
the Northern senatorial district, it had become the
natural expectation that the next gubernatorial
candidate of the ruling party from the APC must
come from the Southern senatorial district, in line
with the informal rotation credo of the power elite,
irrespective of which faction, in which party, is in
power at any time. By that, all competent Cross
Riverians from the Northern senatorial district,
including those from the central senatorial district,
who recently handed over the power to the North
have been automatically excluded and the next
governor of the state will be from the south
whether on the basis of lobbying or not.
During a conversation with another prospective
electorate, he mentioned that he has never
favoured rotation or zoning. "According to my
own opinion, this approach transforms
exclusionary politics into political righteousness
9 
by justifying exclusionary policies with
arguments in favour of the benefiting zone or
territory. Electoral cycles alter the political
rhetoric. For me, zoning's greatest flaw lies in its
potential to squander our time, which I do not see
as affecting the general election in 2023 by any
means ".
From the perspective of a political activist, he
presented that zoning is actually a creation of the
military administration that succeeded General
Yakubu Gowon. The Gowon Administration
which preceded the Murtala/Obasanjo regime
had as Chief of Staff, Supreme Headquarters —
Brigadier Emmanuel Ekpo, and later, Rear-
Admiral Joseph Edet Akinwale Wey. As the
names show, General Yakubu Gowon and his two
chiefs were Christians, in addition to the Vice-
Chairman of the Federal Executive Council, till
1971, being another Christian in the person of late
Chief Obafemi Awolowo. Murtala Muhammed, a
Moslem, had Obasanjo, a Christian as deputy.
When Murtala died and Obasanjo succeeded him,
he appointed Shehu Musa Yar’Adua as his
deputy. That was the take-off!. Today, zoning has
become a mantra that must not just be sung by
politicians irrespective of party affiliation, it has
assumed the status of an unwritten political
grundnorm. Whether I am right or wrong about
zoning will not matter if we continue politicking
the way we always do. As I write this, at least two
politicians from the central senatorial district
have indicated interest in the governorship and
the number of Supporters within this district may
be likely divided, thus leading to an Results gathered from the textual analysis of the
unpredictability of the forthcoming election. respondents speech contents reveals that the 2022
Cross River State gubernatorial election shall be
based on the outcome of individual party policies
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION and not on the senatorial district. By this, the
people may decide to elect aleader beyond
Prior to the 2023 governorship elections, there
domiciliation bias. Also, the article found out
has been an increase in calls for zoning the
that the leader most appropriate for the state’s
governorate. In the fourth Republic, the zoning
gubernatorial position is the southern senatorial
structure is based on a unique historical precedent.
district for the purpose of balancing and equality
It all began with the voiding of the presidential
in power division. More so, the research found
elections of June 12, 1993. There was a
out that campaign contents that will not reflect
significant sense of injustice in the geopolitical
unity and social cohesion void of ethnic bias will
zone where the winner hailed from as a result of
increase the difficulties in the state.
the annulment, which caused major political
instability. Since 1999, the two major political
parties emerged as leaders of the transition from
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