PART OF THE 2023 GLOBAL FORECAST SERIES

Guide to

20
23

VERSION ONE | JANUARY 11, 2023

Welcome to 2023.

This report was created using over 500

predictions from more than 100 different
sources, including more than 20 bank reports
and outlooks. We even tapped into non-text
sources such as interviews and podcasts.

These predictions cover a wide range of

topics, from economic growth and stock
market performance to technological
advancements and geopolitical events.

By reading this report, you'll gain a

comprehensive understanding of what
experts are forecasting for the year ahead,
and be better prepared to make informed
decisions for your business and investments.

As well, we’ll be digging into these themes in

even more detail at our upcoming webinar.

Thank you for being a part of VC+, and we

wish you the best over the coming year.

The VC Team

1
Table of Contents
Prediction Consensus 4

U.S. and Global 5

Macroeconomics

The Markets 17

Geopolitics 29

Tech and Innovation 36

Calendar of Events 42

Further Exploration 43
 Prediction Consensus
                                               
           
                  
                                

  
                                       

Experts believe that… More dots = more predictions

                                            

     



              
                    

4
U.S. and Global
Macroeconomics
Going into 2023, one expected
shock remains: recession.
The U.S., euro area and UK are all expected
to see recessions next year, and the rest of
the world should continue to weaken, with
China a notable exception.
Bank of America

Art by Midjourney. Prompt: currency from various countries, circular frame, vaporwave, renaissance, symmetrical. 5
Is a recession coming,
and when will it arrive?
A WSJ survey in October of 2022 asked 58 economists for
their probability of a recession in the next 12 months:

11 economists responded
with 85% or higher

44 economists responded
with 51% or higher

2 economists responded with 50%

11 economists responded
with 49% or lower

7 economists responded
with 30% or lower
AVERAGE MEDIAN

63% 65% Source: Wall Street Journal

Most banks are expecting the U.S. to enter

a recession in the latter half of 2023

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
J.P. Morgan
Goldman Sachs The U.S. should narrowly avoid recession

Bank of America
Morgan Stanley The U.S. economy just skirts recession in 2023
Barclays
Wells Fargo
PNC
Deutsche Bank
Source: Individual outlook reports

We estimate a 35% probability that the U.S. economy

enters a recession over the next 12 months — Goldman Sachs

6
 BETWEEN THE LINES

What experts are saying about

Recession
Expect the unexpected?

The conventional wisdom sees stocks

falling in the first six months of 2023 in
anticipation of a US recession and then
recovering in the back half of the year
once the first green shoots appear.
We think the exact opposite will happen.
Stocks will rise in the first half of BCA Research

2023 as hopes of a soft landing

intensify, and then dip in the
second half.

Regional tensions breed opportunity

2023 will be a year of global recession, but investment opportunities

will arise from the continued desynchronization between the three
largest economic blocs – the US, the euro area and China.
Carmignac

As the economy slows, we could be facing

a longer consumer-driven recession rather
than just significant declines in investment
and associated losses in employment.
Mihir Desai, professor of finance HBS

Once the focus shifts from the Fed's monetary policy

and interest rates, the timing and depth of the
economic slowdown will be in the hands of consumers.

7
Interest rates
and central banks
While many experts are forecasting
a peak and eventual cuts in interest rates
for 2023, the Federal Reserve’s latest
projections only see rates going higher.
No participants anticipated
that it would be appropriate to
begin reducing the federal funds
rate target in 2023. — FOMC minutes
— Dec 13-14, 2022

FOMC Federal Funds Rate Projections

6%

Median 5.1%
5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%
2022 2023 2024 2025 Longer run

The Fed's “dot plot” is a chart that shows the expected path of interest rates as
predicted by Federal Reserve Board members and Reserve Bank presidents.

While the Federal Reserve’s projections don’t foresee rate cuts in

2023, economists were more optimistic when polled by the WSJ:

5 economists
forecasted rates of

66
5% or higher

economists gave 41 economists

their predictions for forecasted rates
where the midpoint between 4-5%
of the Fed Funds
Rate would be at
the end of 2023. 20 economists
forecasted rates
below 4%

Source: Wall Street Journal

8
Interest Rates
and Central Banks
J.P. Morgan’s Interest Rate Forecast
Forecast
5% We see a peak
BoE UK interest rate of
4.0%–4.5% in the
4%
second quarter.

Fed Assuming headline

inflation and wage
3% inflation are easing,
ECB
we see US interest
rates rising to around
2% 4.5%–5.0% in the first
quarter of 2023 and
stopping there.

1%
The ECB is similarly
BoJ expected to pause at
2.5%–3.0% in the
0% first quarter.
J.P. Morgan

-1%
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

Forecast
$9 USD Trillions

$8

$7
We could see the Fed
consider a faster run down of Other
$6 its balance sheet in an effort
to re-steepen the Treasury yield Loans
$5 curve at a higher level. ING Group

$4

$3 MBS

$2

$1
Treasuries
$0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Source: J.P. Morgan

9
Inflation and the
U.S. labor market
Where is inflation heading, Despite many past and
current forecasts expecting
and how will it impact the inflation to cool off, it has
job market? proven difficult to tame.

PCE inflation and FOMC projections Quarterly PCE inflation

% y/y
Different vintages of
7%
the FOMC’s PCE
inflation projections
6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%
Source: Barclays
0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Inflation may fall even if labor pressures remain strong.

The rapid decline in the working-age The Personal Consumption

population without a bachelor’s degree is likely to Expenditures Price Index is
derived from a broader index
generate continuous labor shortages of blue-collar
of prices than the CPI's more
and manual services workers. The rate of wage narrow set of goods and
growth in these jobs should be relatively robust in services, and is the Fed's
most years until the next recession. The Conference Board preferred measure of inflation.

Inflation is poised to drop below wage growth If wages and

12 month percent change in wages and prices Forecast services prices beyond
8% shelter costs fail to
decelerate, the Fed
6%
would likely maintain a
4%
Wages restrictive monetary
policy deep into a U.S.
2%
economic contraction
0 and with little regard for
Prices
wider global impact. Citi
-2%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Source: PIIE

U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecasts

6.2 5.9 Forecast Labor markets should finally ease
5.1 in 2023 and the U.S. unemployment rate
4.2 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.3
3.6 3.5 3.6 3.9 should peak at 5.5% in the first quarter
of 2024, hindering consumer spending.
Bank of America

2021 2022 2023

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Conference Board

10
U.S. labor market and layoffs
Ratio of Job Openings to Job Seekers
2.0
Oct/Nov 2022
The potential of a recession could
1.72
see the job openings/seekers ratio fall
as layoffs hit tech and other sectors.
– J.P.Morgan

1.0

0.0
1973 1980 2000 2020

These declines in labor demand will likely A generation of tech

center on white-collar workers. For that reason, workers (and tech journalists)
we could continue to feature a relatively healthy who believe Pet Bereavement
unemployment rate (4%-5%) and still have a Leave is normal will discover
struggling economy for a longer period of time. a new normal. Scott Galloway
Mihir Desai, professor of finance HBS

The “Patagonia Vest Recession” Continues

Layoffs in the first 10 days of January

Company People laid off
Laid off tech workers who get
Salesforce 8,000 get together in teams of 2, 3, or 4 –
developers, product managers,
ByteDance 70-100
people who actually build stuff – who
Amazon 8,000 start companies together are going
Huobi 275 to become extremely successful.
SuperRare 30 Jason Calacanis (All-In Podcast)

Gate.io 140
Twitter 52 Layoffs are bad for
Silvergate 200 company morale and worse for
those who get fired, but they’re
Genesis 60 often good for business.
Goldman Sachs 3,200 Scott Galloway

11
U.S. and Global Manufacturing
What will the manufacturing sector
look like in the year ahead?

Global PMI Forecasts

2022 Change Q4/2023
Australia 44.7 9.3 54.0
bbbbbBoth the
Austria 47.3 3.7 51.0
@SPGlobalPMI and #ISM
Brazil 44.2 9.8 54.0
#manufacturing surveys
Canada 49.2 5.8 55.0
point to a collapse in factory
China 49.0 1.9 50.9
orders, set to materialise as
Colombia 51.1 -1.1 50.0
the official data catch up in
Czech Republic 42.6 10.3 52.9
the new year.
Denmark 51.2 0.1 51.3
Egypt 47.2 2.8 50.0
Euro Area 47.8 5.2 53.0
France 49.2 5.3 54.5 bbbbbThe number of
Germany 47.1 4.4 51.5 optimists regarding the year
Hong Kong 49.6 2.4 52.0 ahead has also now
Hungary 63.1 -10.3 52.8 exceeded pessimists for the
India 57.8 -5.3 52.5 first time since August, hinting
Indonesia 50.9 1.1 52.0 at a steady improvement in
Ireland 48.7 4.9 53.6 business confidence.
Israel 53.6 -0.6 53.0
Italy 48.5 3.0 51.5 — Chris Williamson,
Japan 48.9 2.4 51.3 Chief Business
Kazakhstan 50.8 0.1 50.9 Economist, S&P Global
Kenya 51.6 0.4 52.0 Markit Intelligence
Lebanon 47.3 2.2 49.5
Malaysia 47.8 3.2 51.0
Mexico 51.3 -0.3 51.0
Myanmar 42.1 8.9 51.0
Netherlands 48.6 2.9 51.5
New Zealand 47.3 5.2 52.5
Nigeria 52.3 -0.3 52.0
Norway 50.0 0.2 50.2
Philippines 53.1 -1.3 51.8
Poland 45.6 7.0 52.6
Qatar 49.6 1.4 51.0
Russia 53.0 -2.9 50.1
Saudi Arabia 56.9 -3.9 53.0
Singapore 49.7 0.7 50.4
South Africa 52.6 1.4 54.0
South Korea 48.2 1.8 50.0
Spain 46.4 5.3 51.7
Sri Lanka 42.1 22.9 65.0
Sweden 45.9 6.1 52.0
Switzerland 54.1 -3.2 50.9
Taiwan 44.6 6.4 51.0
Thailand 52.5 -0.7 51.8
Turkey 48.1 6.5 54.6
United Arab Emirates 54.2 -0.2 54.0
United Kingdom 45.3 7.6 52.9
United States 46.2 4.8 51.0
Vietnam 46.4 5.6 52.0
Source: Trading Economics. 2022 figures indicate latest available data, either November or December readings.

Supply chain disruptions will ease markedly in 2023, but

tensions from labor shortages will remain.
— S&P Global
12
 A bird’s eye view on global growth, inflation,
unemployment, and debt
Real GDP Inflation Unemployment
USA 1.0% 3.5% 4.6%
Canada 1.5% 4.2% 5.9%
Mexico 1.2% 6.3% 3.7%
Puerto Rico 0.4% 3.5% 7.9%
Brazil 1.0% 4.7% 9.5%
Argentina 2.0% 76.1% 6.9%
Colombia 2.2% 7.1% 11.1%
Chile -1.0% 8.7% 8.3%
Peru 2.6% 4.4% 7.5%
Ecuador 2.7% 2.4% 3.8%
Dominican Republic 4.5% 5.7% 6.2%
Germany -0.3% 7.2% 3.4%
United Kingdom 0.3% 9.0% 4.8%
France 0.7% 4.6% 7.6%
Russia -2.3% 5.0% 4.3%
Italy -0.2% 5.2% 9.4%
Spain 1.2% 4.9% 12.3%
Netherlands 0.8% 8.0% 3.9%
Switzerland 0.8% 2.4% 2.4%
Poland 0.5% 14.3% 3.2%
Sweden -0.1% 8.4% 7.4%
Belgium 0.4% 4.9% 5.6%
Ireland 4.0% 6.5% 4.8%
Norway 2.6% 3.8% 3.8%
Austria 1.0% 5.1% 4.6%
Denmark 0.6% 3.8% 5.3%
Romania 3.1% 11.0% 5.5%
Czech Republic 1.5% 8.6% 2.3%
Finland 0.5% 3.5% 7.4%
Portugal 0.7% 4.7% 6.5%
Greece 1.8% 3.2% 12.2%
Hungary 1.8% 13.3% 3.8%
Slovakia 1.5% 10.1% 6.2%
China 4.4% 2.2% 4.1%
Japan 1.6% 1.4% 2.4%
India 6.1% 5.1%
South Korea 2.0% 3.8% 3.4%
Indonesia 5.0% 5.5% 5.3%
Turkey 3.0% 51.2% 10.5%
Taiwan 2.8% 2.2% 3.6%
Thailand 3.7% 2.8% 1.0%
Bangladesh 6.0% 9.1%
Malaysia 4.4% 2.8% 4.3%
Singapore 2.3% 3.0% 2.1%
Vietnam 6.2% 3.9% 2.3%
Philippines 5.0% 4.3% 5.4%
Pakistan 3.5% 19.9% 6.4%
Hong Kong 3.9% 2.4% 4.0%
Iran 2.0% 40.0% 9.6%
Saudi Arabia 3.7% 2.2%
Israel 3.0% 3.6% 3.8%
Nigeria 3.0% 17.3%
UAE 4.2% 3.6%
Egypt 4.4% 12.0% 7.3%
Iraq 4.0% 4.5%
South Africa 1.1% 5.1% 35.6%
Algeria 2.6% 8.7%
Morocco 3.1% 4.1% 10.7%
Angola 3.4% 11.8%
Kenya 5.1% 6.6%

Source: IMF 13
 Projections for 2023

Real GDP -2.3% 6.2%

4.0%

1.0% 4.4%

6.2%

6.1%
5.1%
1.0%

Inflation 1.4% 76.1%

51.2%

3.5% 2.2%

40.0%

17.3% 19.9%
4.7%

76.1%

Unemployment 1.0% 35.6%

12.3%
4.6% 4.1%

12.2%
11.1%

9.5%

35.6%

Source: IMF 14
 Global Public Opinion
Domestic vs Global Sentiment
on Economic Outlooks

Their own country’s outlook The global economy

% who are optimistic % who are optimistic

Argentina 67.5% 47.8%

Australia 66.5% 40.8%

Belgium 43.8% 27.1%

Brazil 85.2% 73.5%

Canada 60.7% 36.2%

Chile 70.0% 42.9%

China 83.3% 78.0%

Colombia 78.6% 48.5%

Denmark 60.5% 37.3%

France 44.0% 29.4%

Germany 51.8% 36.7%

United Kingdom 52.7% 32.6%

Hungary 68.6% 31.3%

India 80.6% 73.0%

Indonesia 80.4% 68.2%

Ireland 64.6% 38.3%

Israel 66.8% 51.1%

Italy 54.1% 31.8%

Japan 36.0% 30.1%

Malaysia 68.3% 54.0%

Mexico 84.7% 55.1%

Netherlands 58.9% 31.8%

Peru 80.5% 53.4%

Poland 59.4% 35.8%

Romania 62.7% 37.6%

Saudi Arabia 82.2% 71.4%

Singapore 63.6% 54.8%

South Africa 76.4% 47.4%

South Korea 51.9% 37.7%

Spain 54.8% 36.1%

Sweden 52.4% 33.3%

Switzerland 61.3% 35.0%

Thailand 75.9% 64.3%

Turkey 54.0% 43.3%

United Arab Emirates 82.3% 76.4%

United States 64.3% 42.2%

Source: IPSOS 15
 Expert Predictions
& VC Audience Polls

12
We expect advanced economies to slip into
recession, and we forecast global growth at
just 1.7%, one of the weakest years for the
world economy in 40 years.

With every major crisis, people seem

quick to declare an end to globalization,

3
but the world may well be too digital and
interconnected to deglobalize.

We forecast a recession in the

U.S., with GDP declining by 0.4%
year-on-year in 2023

to create the conditions for a real

recession with an unemployment rate

4
Faced with inflation, the Fed will have

5
well above 5%, compared with 3.5%
today, which is not currently
envisaged by the consensus

In 2023, brick-and-mortar retail will

finally enter the goldilocks zone:
Having the right amount of physical
store space to meet consumer
demand.

2022 saw layoffs concentrated in the tech sector. Will there be more cuts in 2023?
Fewer cuts

More cuts 52 % 21
Will global average inflation levels fall further or rise again in 2023?
Stay the same

Fall 49 % Rise 34 17
Which country will be the top driver for GDP growth next year? Japan Germany

China 44 % U.S. 42 8 6
“Other” nation with the most submissions: India

17
16
 The Markets
Those that will succeed will be
companies with a meaningful offering
that goes beyond selling $2 for $1,
a strategy adopted by many
hyper-growth firms
Azeem Azhar (Exponential View)

Art by Midjourney. Prompt: HUD style stock market chart, stock exchange architecture, vaporwave, renaissance.
 S&P 500 Forecasts Charted
2000 2021 2022 2023 2024
USD
5000

4500

4154.16
Average
4000

3500

Entity Forecast

The Leuthold Group 5000

Fundstrat 4750
3000
CFRA Research 4575
Deutsche Bank 4500
LPL Financial 4450
Wells Fargo 4400
Oppenheimer 4400
2500
BMO Capital Markets 4300
JPMorgan Chase 4200
Jefferies Group 4200
Comerica Wealth Management 4150
Chances are higher that Evercore ISI 4150
the bottom is in: RBC Capital Markets 4100
Credit Suisse 4050
Overall, while we are not calling Citigroup 4000
the bottom for equity markets, we Bank of America 4000
do think that the risk vs. reward for Goldman Sachs 4000
equities in 2023 has improved,
HSBC 4000
given the declines in 2022.
Morgan Stanley 3900
Importantly, the probability that UBS 3900
stocks will be higher by the end of Société Générale 3800
next year has increased sufficiently Capital Economics 3800
to make it our base case.
Barclays 3675
— J.P.Morgan BNP Paribas 3400

18
 U.S. Equities
Experts prefer value stocks for the We have stronger conviction that
coming year, and they have room to value stocks will be higher by the end of
run in 2023. 2023 than we do for those growth stocks
that still look expensive.
— Morgan Stanley

S&P 500 Growth & Sectors that are more cyclical and
value-oriented in nature appear attractive
Value Price Index to us. Financials, materials and energy
stocks in particular are trading at depressed
Relative to S&P 500 valuation levels on a historical comparison.
Growth Value — Deutsche Bank

.70 .70

.65 .65

.60 .60

.55 .55

.50 .50

.45 .45

.40 .40

.35 .35

.30 .30
2000 2010 2020

Dividends have fallen less than earnings in recent recessions

Company earnings and MSCI World earnings

margins are likely to come under and dividends drawdowns
pressure this year as pricing power
% drawdown from rolling 2-year high for EPS and DPS
declines and costs remain sticky–
both the U.S. and Europe look at 0
risk from this theme top-down.
— Morgan Stanley
-20
Strong, dividend paying
companies often go to great lengths
to maintain dividends, even when
-40
earnings are under pressure. With
payout ratios relatively modest at Recession
present, maintaining current
dividends looks more feasible than -60
in some prior recessions.
— J.P. Morgan 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Source: Yardeni Research, J.P.Morgan 19

 U.S. Treasury yield
forecasts charted
Many banks forecast a general decline in treasury yields,
with only Goldman Sachs expecting a rise across all durations.

2 Year 5Y 10Y 30Y

4.75%

4.50%
Goldman Sachs
RBC
4.25% End of 2022
Deutsche Bank
JPMorgan
4.00%
Barclays
NatWest Markets
3.75%
Average
Société Générale
Bank of America
3.50%
TD
Morgan Stanley
3.25% MUFG
Citi

3.00%

Fixed income finally offers “income” after yields surged globally.

We prefer short-term government bonds for income: The jump in yields

reduces the need to take risk by seeking yield further out the curve.
— BlackRock

Why do bonds look so attractive in 2023?

The drawdown in the Bloomberg
Barclays Global Bond Aggregate in
the first 10 months of 2022 was
around -20%, four times as bad as
the previous worst year since records
began in 1992.
Crucially, while the correction in
global bond markets has been
incredibly painful, we believe that
it is nearing completion.
J.P.Morgan
With inflation likely to normalize in
2023, fixed income assets should
become more attractive to hold and
offer renewed diversification benefits
in portfolios.
Given the current rate differentials
and the different outlook in terms of
further rate hikes, we see greater
return potential in U.S. Treasuries
than in Eurozone government bonds.
Credit Suisse

20
U.S. Housing
Charting Three Key Scenarios
for U.S. Housing Rates

Scenario 1: Scenario 2: Scenario 3:

Inflation continues to remain
high, forcing the Fed to raise
interest rates repeatedly.
That means mortgage rates
will keep climbing, possibly
near 8.5%.
The Consumer Price Index
responds more to the Fed’s rate
hikes, and there is a gradual
deceleration of inflation,
causing mortgage rates to
stabilize near 7% to 7.5%.
The Fed raises rates
repeatedly to curb inflation
and the economy falls into
a recession. This could
cause rates to drop to 5%.

(%)
12.0
30-Year Fixed 11.5
Mortgage Rate 11.0
10.5
10.0
Scenario 1: High inflation and more rate hikes 9.5
Scenario 2: Gradual inflation deceleration
Scenario 3: Excessive early rate hikes and economic recession 9.0
8.5
1
8.0
7.5
2
7.0
6.5
6.0
3
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Higher rates under scenario #1 Why these higher

could cause home sales to drop by mortgage rates might
more than 10% next year.
not hurt so much:
In scenario #2, home sales drop by
Only about 5% of US
7% to 8%. And in scenario #3, home
mortgages are on adjustable
activity may also drop further by
rates today, compared with
more than 15%.
over 20% in 2007.
Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and J.P. Morgan
director of Real Estate Research for National
Association of Realtors

21
European Markets
Real Annual Gross Domestic Product Growth Forecasts (Yoy)
2021 2022 2023 Forecast

0% 2% 4% 6%

Euro area Going into 2023, we are cautious

on Eurozone equities and expect regional
markets to remain under pressure amid
ongoing macro headwinds for the region.

Our economists expect the Eurozone to

Germany already be in a recession going into
2023, and geopolitical risks further
complicate the outlook for the region.
Credit Suisse

France

Along with recessionary and

Italy geopolitical headwinds, European
equities face a weaker earnings
outlook than U.S. equities.

Spain
Source: Credit Suisse

2023 expected year-over-year J.P. Morgan and Credit Suisse

maintain negative outlooks for
change in earnings per share European equities.
(EPS)

But Deutsche Bank sees potential

U.S. in the region's valuations.

5% Why?

1
Europe Recent valuation discounts in this
region have been disproportionately
2% high, with economic and geopolitical
Consensus
expectations risks already factored in.

2
J.P. Morgan
Private Bank Extensive fiscal programs and
outlook high levels of savings should
buoy private consumption.
-3%

3
Expected stronger Chinese
growth will be important to many
European companies. Deutsche Bank
Source: J.P.Morgan
-8%

22
 Emerging Markets
Emerging markets (EM) have We see EM debt as an
better growth, lower inflation, and attractive place for investors
less sovereign and private debt, yet comfortable with a riskier asset
EM equities and currencies trade class, particularly issues
at crisis-level valuations. denominated in local currency.
Jitania Kandhari, Head of Macro and Thematic Research Eric Stein, Chief Investment Officer,
for Emerging Markets Equity at Morgan Stanley Fixed Income, Morgan Stanley

Current Emerging Market Valuations in Perspective

Standard deviations from global average

Expensive relative to world

Current Expensive
4 relative to
own history
Average
Cheap
2
relative to
own history
0

-2

-4

-6
Taiwan Brazil S. Africa China S. Korea EM Mexico ACWI India
Cheap relative to world
Source: J.P. Morgan

1
J.P. Morgan’s Fed and central banks pause
Key catalysts rate rises in early 2023
for emerging In such a scenario, cyclical stocks, such as those in
the technology sector, and cyclical markets, such as
market upside Korea and Taiwan (which have also derated), would
find a much more favourable environment, since
equity markets are usually forward-looking and look
ahead to price in an economic recovery.
For attractively
valued emerging

2
markets to shine in The end of zero-COVID
2023, at least one policy in China
of these three A recovery in Chinese demand would be beneficial
featured catalysts for China and its major trading partners in the region.
need to occur.

3
Abating political risk
While political outcomes are hard to predict, investors
need to acknowledge that abating political risks are a
possible outcome in 2023. The Chinese economy is
highly dependent on global demand, and global
consumers are highly dependent on Chinese
production. As a result, there are significant economic
incentives for both sides to remain on good terms.

23
 Crude Oil bbb The oil market is still tight despite a
weakening global demand outlook as
recession fears run wild.
— Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA

WTI Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil

Entity 2023 Forecast 2023 Forecast

Current 95.2 101.5

Goldman Sachs 92.0 98.0
OPIS 90.0 95-96
EIA 86.4 92.4
J.P.Morgan 83.0 90.0
Citi 84.8 89.4
Average of 30 eonomists surveyed by Reuters 75.0 80.0
Average 86.6 91.9
USD
120

110

100
91.9
90
80.9 86.6
80
76.1
70

60

50

40

2021 2022 2023 2024

The World Bank’s We are forecasting a brisk return

to oil demand growth next year, with
Supply and Demand
an increase of 2.3 million bpd for 2023
Catalysts to Watch as a whole.
for Crude Oil This resumption of the upward trend
EU sanctions on Russia
in demand is likely to jolt the oil market
G7 oil price cap out of its current doldrums and provide
support to prices.
Supply

OPEC+ production capacity

U.S. shale oil outlook Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist,
Further release of SPR inventories S&P Global Market Intelligence

Potential global recession

Demand

China reopening
Refilling of SPR inventories

17
24
Gasoline, Diesel, bbbbbAs refiners maintain high
utilization in response to high distillate
margins, we expect this trend

and Natural Gas [decreasing prices] to continue and for

gasoline inventories to reach five-year
average levels in 2023, limiting
upward pressure on gasoline prices.
— EIA
EIA Price Forecasts for U.S.
gasoline, diesel, and natural gas 2021 2022 2023

Gasoline average regular

$3.02 $3.99 $3.51
pump price (dollars per gallon)

Diesel on-highway retail

$3.29 $5.05 $4.48
(dollars per gallon)

Natural gas U.S. residential average

$12.21 $15.04 $15.06
(dollars per thousand cubic feet)

European Natural Gas Prices* 360 360

340 340
bbbbbWe still expect that there
will be no Russian gas flowing 320 320
into the EU in 2023. Europe
will be more reliant on LNG 300
300
supplies and face competition
from Asian buyers.
280 280
— FitchRatings

260 260

240 240

220 220

200 200

180 180

160 160

140 140

120 EOY Forecast 120

Є105.14
100 100
Q1 Forecast
Є77.10
80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0
Jul Oct 2022 Apr Jul Oct 2023 Apr Jul Oct 2024

Source: TradingEconomics *Dutch TTF

17
25
Metals The World Bank is bearish on
nearly every metal for 2023,
especially base metals.
Metal EOY 2022 2023 Forecast % change

Aluminum 2,378 2,400 0.93%

Copper 8,390 7,300 -12.99%
Base metals Iron ore 117.5 100 -14.89%
Lead 2,337 1,900 -18.70%
Nickel 29,886 21,000 -29.73%
Tin 24,808 22,000 -11.32%
Zinc 2,973 2,800 -5.82%
Gold 1,824 1,700 -6.80%
Precious metals Silver 23.97 21 -12.39%
Platinum 1,070 1,000 -6.54%
Base metals prices in U.S. dollars per metric tonne, iron ore prices in dry metric
tonnes, and precious metals in U.S. dollars per troy ounce. Source: World Bank

bbbbbSupply and demand balances point to a year-on-year decline in average prices across the
metals and mining industries in 2023. The construction sector, a key area for iron ore, steel and
base metals, will be a drag on global demand. Meanwhile, supplies of copper, aluminium, lead,
zinc, iron ore and steel, among others will all post higher growth rates than in 2022.
— Nick Pickens, Wood Mackenzie

But when it comes to gold, bbbbGold will remain a

desirable hedge against a
not everyone agrees on the variety of geopolitical risks, as
bearish sentiment… well as the risk of a second
wave of inflation. We are neutral
Five of the seven past recessions have on gold going into 2023.
seen gold prices respond positively — BCA Research

Performance of gold before, during and after recessions*

Dec’73 - Mar’75 Feb’80 - Jul’80 Aug’81 - Nov’82 Aug’90 - Mar’91 Apr’01 - Nov’01
Jan’08 - Jun’09 Mar’20 - Apr’20

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
T-6 T-3 T T+3 T+6 T+9 T+12 T+15 T+18 T+21
*Based on the LBMA Gold Price PM. The vertical line at time T is the start of an NBER-designated recession.

Even with a bullish baseline gold and silver forecast, we think risk is skewed to the upside in 2023.
A harder-than-expected economic landing in the U.S. would not only attract additional safe haven buying, but the rally
could become supercharged by more dramatic decreases in yields if the Fed more rapidly unwinds tighter fiscal policy.
— J.P. Morgan

26
Crypto
The end of a fad or overcoming growing pains
appear to be the crypto binary options for 2023.
Our bias is the latter. Bloomberg

No new all-time highs doesn’t mean

USD
Potential for more no volatility or opportunity
68000
pains before gains

The macroeconomic bear

BTC USD 64000

market may pressure Bitcoin 60000

toward $10,000 and breach
Ethereum's $1,000 support, 56000
but these levels represent
52000
extreme discounts.
We see the No. 2 crypto 48000
[Ethereum] in an enduring
bull scenario at a discount Bloomberg 44000
amid slumping global Resistance: $40,000
40000
markets, and poised to
keep outperforming +130% +300% 36000
Bitcoin and equities.
32000
Bloomberg
28000

24000

20000

Bitcoin may drop to what Current price 16000

would be a substantial $17,200
12000
discount around $10,000, -40%
but within the elongated
Bloomberg Support: $10,000 8000
upward trajectory could
revisit $40,000 resistance. 4000
Bloomberg

2020 May Sep 2021 May Sep 2022 May Sep 2023 May Sep 2024
Source: TradingView, Bloomberg

3 themes for crypto prices

Trust is essential
Until trust is re-established,
digital assets will likely fail to reach
their full potential and won’t offer
value to most businesses.
Many customers, discouraged by
recent market conditions, may even
demand the presence of trusted,
blue-chip names before entering
the digital asset space. PwC
Regulation is coming, but it will take time
We expect to see advances in regulations this year,
especially around definitions such as which digital
assets are commodities and which are securities.
We also expect to see regulatory progress
around stablecoins.
But given the complexity, we expect most legislation
and agency rulemaking to likely remain incomplete for
some time to come….this process isn't expected to be
complete by the end of 2023. PwC

Positive equities
correlation Crypto correlations with
equities, gold, and treasuries
The sentiment in the equity
market is likely to continue to S&P 500 Gold U.S. 10Y
impact the risk appetite in crypto BTC 0.58 0.12 -0.07
in 2023, unless more negative ETH 0.57 0.13 -0.04
crypto-specific contagion appears.
1Y window (Nov. 30, 2021–Dec. 1, 2022) Source: Coinbase
Mads Eberhardt, Saxo Bank

27
 Spicy Predictions
& VC Audience Polls

12
We believe that FAANG will outperform the S&P in 2023.

In 2022, most FAANG names have not experienced an

impairment to their core business but valuations have
been marked down related to a reduction in market
multiples as investors brace for a recession in 2023.

The tech IPO market will rebound in 2023,

surprising pretty much everyone.

Tech IPOs have found their bottom, and there’s

3
pretty much nowhere to go but up. Tech tends to
lead all markets out of rough patches, and we’ve
been in bumpy terrain for a while now.

Home prices will not fall proportionally.

Any fall in prices will not be enough to
offset the rising interest rate and its
contribution to the monthly [mortgage]

4
payment. As a result, homes may even
seem less affordable.

The Chinese owners [of TikTok], under

threat of having it banned in the U.S.,
are going to sell it, and it's going to

5
become an American company.

How was gold supposed to rally in 2022, especially

in strong USD terms, if you can get well over 4.0% on
a 5-year US treasury at a time when 5-year forward
inflation rates are priced to drop below 2.5%?

2023 is the year that the market finally discovers that

inflation is set to remain ablaze for the foreseeable
future. Gold slices through the double top near
$2,075 as if it wasn’t there and hurtles to at least
$3,000 next year.

U.S. equities entered their first bear market in over a decade. Have we reached the bottom?
Bottom is in

More downside 73 % 27
Will energy prices rise, fall, or stay the same in 2023?
Stay the same

Rise 55 % Fall 29 16
Will crypto have a comeback or will the crypto winter continue in 2023?
Comeback

Crypto winter
%
74 % 26
28
 Geopolitics
A humiliated Russia will turn from global
player into the world’s most dangerous
rogue state, posing a serious security threat
to Europe, the United States, and beyond.
Eurasia Group

The scale [of Iranian protests] Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will

has ebbed and flowed; if they unleash a barrage of methods, fair
escalate again the Islamic regime and foul, to hang on to power
may crack down even harder. despite his dwindling popularity.

Turkey has a general election in June, 2023

Art by Midjourney. Prompt: chess pieces, single circular panel, globe, geometric abstract pattern.
 GEOPOLITICS

Russia–Ukraine
Kyiv
Though the front lines have
been pushed back to the
South Eastern regions of
Ukraine, Russia continues to
target Kyiv and other cities
with rocket attacks.
Kharkiv Zaporizhzhia
In September 2022, Zaporizhzhia, the
Ukraine launched a largest nuclear power
major counteroffensive plant in Europe, is still
under Russian control.
to retake Kharkiv Oblast.

Kyiv Kharkiv

Zaporizhzhia

Ukrainian territory
Occupied territories
pre Feb. 24, 2022

Occupied territories
since Feb. 24, 2022

For Russia to concede, Conditions for a lasting ceasefire,

Putin will have to be deposed
or die in office of natural
causes or otherwise.
Putin’s deposition will only take place
when those who support him at present
determine that their interests lie in his
removal, and that this removal would not
herald a political revolution that would
also sweep them away. Finding this
sweet spot may be the only thing
capable of stopping the fighting.
Paul T. Horgan, The Article
let alone a formal peace settlement,
are unlikely to be met in 2023
Freezing present positions would satisfy neither
Russia nor Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin would
not have broken Ukraine’s independence, or even
fully control the four regions it “annexed” in
September. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cannot
accept a ceasefire leaving Ukraine without the
territory lost since Russia’s invasion in February,
on top of occupied Donbas and Crimea, seized in
2014. A continued, grinding conflict is most likely.
Tony Barber, FT

Military activity seems On Ukraine, my prediction is

designed to tie Ukrainian that the war will continue through
forces down rather than 2023 and possibly 2024 and 2025.
achieve sustainable Matthew Kroenig, Atlantic Council
breakthroughs.
Lawrence Freedman, New Statesman

30
 GEOPOLITICS

Russia–Ukraine
What the conflict means for the world
The Digital Battlefield Energy Shocks
Kremlin-affiliated hackers With Russian gas flows no longer
will ramp up cyberattacks on available to refill depleted European stocks
Western firms and governments. early in 2023 and no significant new
Pipelines, as well as LNG European import capacity coming online,
terminals, will be attractive prices in the region could stay elevated
targets for Russian sabotage. and produce a mad scramble for gas.
Eurasia Group John Herbst, Atlantic Council

Decoupling Season A Growing Alliance

The European Union Clear signs of a Russian–Chinese
will continue its economic “splinternet” emerge by 2023. Chinese
decoupling from Russia, technology companies look to fill the void
particularly in energy with left by their Western counterparts,
the help of gas imports expanding [into] into Russia as the influence
from the United States. of Western technology giants wanes.
Eurasia Group CCS Insights

Superforecaster Predictions

In for the long haul After Oct 2024

When Will Russia and Ukraine Sign or Announce 55%

an Agreement to End the Conflict in Ukraine?

40%

30% Oct 1 2023- Apr 1 - Sep 30 2024

Apr 1-
Mar 31 2024
19%
20% Sep 30 2023
15%
9%
Before
Apr. 1 2023
10%

0%
2%
Jan. 2023 Apr. 2023 Oct. 2023 Mar. 2024 Oct. 2024

Wildcard scenarios
Yes
Will Vladimir Putin Cease to Be
the President of the Russian
9%
Federation Before October 2023?
No 91%
Yes
Will Russia Detonate a Nuclear Device
in Ukrainian Territory, Territorial Waters,
5%
or Airspace Before October 2023?
No 95%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Source: The Economist

31
 What Experts Predict
for China in 2023
No Invasion of Taiwan,
but Tensions Persist
Jinping may one day decide to
attack or blockade Taiwan — but
probably not in 2023. An invasion would
be a colossal gamble. If it went wrong,
Xi could start a war with the US, lose
power and permanently damage
China’s prospects. A blockade is much
more likely; it would put huge pressure
on Taiwan to fold, and would dare the
US to fire the first shot.
Such a roll of the dice on China’s
part would be far riskier than Russia’s land
invasion, not only because the PLA would
have to conduct the largest and farthest
amphibious invasion in modern history, but
also because—unlike in Ukraine—cautious
PLA war planners would have to assume
that the United States and some of its
regional allies would quickly commit
combat forces to the island’s defense.

Gideon Rachman, FT John K. Culver, retired CIA analyst

Russia: A Partnership with “No Limits”

There will be a big deal, not just energy products, but agricultural products,
mineral products, and rare earth minerals. […] I think there could be a trillion dollar
deal between Russia and China this year.
David Sacks

For China, the war has been mostly a headache. Despite Chinese
President Xi Jinping’s public embrace of Putin and continued trade between the
two countries that has helped Russia weather sanctions, Beijing’s material support
has been lacklustre.
Crisis Group

The China–U.S.
Rivalry
U.S.-China relations will probably
stabilize somewhat in early 2023 given Xi’s
ongoing charm offensive, one aimed at
repairing Beijing’s badly damaged reputation
without altering any of its malign behavior.
The declassified 2022 U.S.
National Defense Strategy identified
China as the “most consequential strategic
competitor for the coming decades.”
The rivalry shows no signs of easing.

Craig Singleton, Foundation for Defense of Democracies Stifel

Source:
32
 China’s Headwinds
India will outpace China as the
Slowing population most populous country in 2023.
growth as India
India has the conditions in place
threatens to become for an economic boom felled by offshoring,
the developing market investment in manufacturing, the energy
transition, and the country's advanced
of choice. digital infrastructure. Morgan Stanley

Population by Age Group

5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85

1.426B 1.428B 1.5B

1.0B

0.5B

China India

1950 2023 2100 1950 2023 2100

Uncertainty around the property sector

Property sales are expected to slip by 2023 will see a high offshore debt
a median of 8% this year, a Reuters survey of maturity wall totalling $141 billion,
eight economists and analysts showed, compared to $120.7 billion in 2022.
compared to a slump of around 25% in 2022.
As a result, Cosmo Zhang, credit
Gavekal Dragonomics expects a rise of analyst at Vontobel Asset
5%-10% in property sales this year, while Citi Management, said the sector
has forecast a 21% drop, citing time needed for would see more debt restructuring.
job and home price expectations to recover, as
well as a drop in new supply. Reuters

Reason for Dissent 50 100 150 200 250

Delayed Housing Project

Pay and Benefits It’s worth noting that
Fraud
China did not do the type of
balance sheet actions that
Covid Pandemic Policies
U.S., European policy
Building Disputes makers did in the sense that
School Disputes Chinese small and medium
Land Rights businesses are coming out of
Fund Withdrawal Freeze this with much worse balance
sheets than they had.
Corruption
State Violence Greg Jensen,
Other Co-CIO Bridgewater

Source: UN, Freedom House’s China Dissent Monitor 33

 China’s Tailwinds
Strengthening ties Countries in the
Gulf Cooperation Council
with Saudi Arabia and the
Gulf Cooperation Council Bahrain Qatar

Kuwait Saudi Arabia

China will continue to import Oman UAE

large quantities of crude oil on a
long-term basis from GCC countries,
and purchase more LNG. Xi Jinping
We will strengthen our cooperation
in the upstream sector, engineering
services, as well as storage, transportation
and refinery of oil and gas. Xi Jinping
The two sides will work more closely
on clean and low-carbon technologies
involving hydrogen, energy storage, wind
and photovoltaic power and smart power
grids, as well as localized production of
new energy equipment. Xi Jinping

The Emerging Petro-Yuan Russia’s fourth largest oil producer,

Xi Jinping also mentioned that Shanghai’s
Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange would
be “fully utilized in RMB settlement in oil and
gas trade.” paving the way for the Petro-yuan.
Gazprom Neft, has been settling all its crude oil
sales with China (one-third of its total sales) in
renminbi since 2015. Countries including Iran,
Venezuela and Indonesia are already settling
some of their China oil trade in renminbi.
Chi Lo, VNP Paribas Asset Management

Growth spurred by
COVID reopening

A V-shaped recovery
in China growth is now likely
given the sudden change in
the prior Covid-zero policy.
Morgan Stanley forecasts
5.4% GDP growth in 2023.
Morgan Stanley

Source: UN, Freedom House’s China Dissent Monitor 34

Other areas to watch
In 2023, experts believe that…
A serious cyber
attack could hit
U.S. infrastructure
Likelihood: Moderate;
Impact: High. A highly
disruptive cyberattack
targeting U.S. critical
infrastructure by a state
or nonstate entity.
Council on Foreign
Relations
Trouble is
brewing in Africa’s
Sahel region
Jihadism in the Sahel
flares up. There's a risk of
these groups pushing
towards coastal countries.
Gideon Rachman, chief
foreign affairs columnist,
Financial Times
Iran will likely
be the dominant
issue of 2023.
Conflict could
flare up in the
Caucasus region
Two years after
their latest war over
Nagorno-Karabakh,
Armenia and Azerbaijan
appear headed toward
another confrontation.
Crisis Group
Turkey is at
a crossroads
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s
two-decade dominance of
Turkish politics will face its
toughest test in Turkey’s
2023 general elections.
James M. Lindsay,
Council on Foreign Relations
Richard Haass
(Council on Foreign Relations)
Iran’s nuclear
ambitions could
ratchet up tensions
in the region
With a nuclear deal
out of reach, the gloves
will again come off
between Iran and Israel.
Andrew England, FT
While tensions could
escalate, a full-blown
invasion is unlikely
Jinping may one day
decide to attack or blockade
Taiwan — but probably not
in 2023. An invasion would
be a colossal gamble.
Gideon Rachman, FT
35
Tech & Innovation
Like Web3 last year, artificial intelligence is on
track to be the most hyped technology of 2023.
Unlike Web3, however, AI will (mostly) live up to the hype.
Scott Galloway, Author and professor at NYU

Energy-storing surface materials. In 2023, expect the volume of

Decentralized grids. Smart consumption research built on top of AlphaFold to
technologies. In 2023, we will see rapid surge. Researchers will take this vast new
development on a global scale that trove of foundational biological knowledge
improves the way we produce, store, and apply it to produce world-changing
and consume energy. applications across disciplines.
Werner Vogels, CTO, Amazon Rob Toews, Radical Ventures

Art by Midjourney. Prompt: data center server rack, single circular panel, bright LED lights, white marble sculpture.
 THREE THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT

Artificial Intelligence

1
There is hype
around generative AI
Generative AI is a type of artificial intelligence
focused on generating new content, such as
text, images, or audio. Most commonly, users
enter a “prompt” and the tool generates media.

dapper gnome posing with flowers

Big Tech is taking notice

OpenAI, which now has now released a few
generative AI tools to the general public, including
ChatGPT, is now raising funds at a $29 billion
valuation, and is in talks with Microsoft. 2
The popularity of OpenAI’s tools hasn’t escaped the notice of
the world’s dominant search engine. Google’s executive team
reportedly declared a “code red” in response to ChatGPT.

Language and image-based AI Google launches a ChatGPT

tools are also making their way
into products very quickly which,
in turn, will help corporate adoption.
Firms won’t want to be left behind.
Azeem Azhar (Exponential View)
inspired search interface.
Because paranoia. Microsoft
launches “Enterprise Explorer”.
John Battelle (SearchBlog)

3 Regulators may soon follow

There’s something about the intersection of cheating and technology
that gets governments fired up. We’ve even seen countries shut off
the internet during exam time. Soon, ChatGPT usage in schools will
catch the attention of regulators, and kickstart a broad conversation
about the implications of AI in society.

By year’s end I wouldn’t be surprised if OpenAI

had been dragged in front of Congress to talk
about [ChatGPT’s use in schools]. Casey Newton

37
 BETWEEN THE LINES

What experts are saying about

AI
Demagogues and populists will
weaponize AI for narrow political gain at
the expense of democracy and civil society.
Eurasia Group

One key area this could happen is in the battlefield of

social media platforms. AI advances make it easy for
bots to appear more human, and spread disinformation.

“Ask Jeeves” on steroids

Today we might iterate across multiple Google

searches to cobble together a piece of code,
summarise the arguments in a book, or lay out
the pros and cons of different routers. We
might, in the future, do that through interacting
with a specific chatbot. Azeem Azhar (Exponential View)

Stanford researchers have called

transformers “foundation models” as they
could represent a paradigm shift in AI.

In 2023, we’ll also see a dramatic

increase in the availability of easy-to-adopt,
fully supported AI workflows based on what
are called Transformer models. AI is
becoming the foundation for data-processing
platforms and an essential engine of every
business and enterprise. Michael Kagan (CTO, Nvidia)

38
 Renewables and The coming years are set to see a

Nuclear Revival boom in renewable electricity capacity

and nuclear reactor units.

Comparing Total Renewable

Electricity Capacity Additions

2001–2003 70.5GW
Renewable electricity capacity
2004–2009 +323.7GW additions in 2022-2027 are
forecasted to equal additions
2001-2021.
from 2001-2021
2010–2015 +732.3GW

2016–2021 2,409GW
2022–2027 2,383GW
0 500GW 1,000GW 1,500GW 2,000GW 2,500GW

Nuclear Revival
Number of prospective nuclear units As the United Arab Emirates
prepares to host COP28, it will ramp
up investment in low-carbon energy,
spurring other countries in the Middle
East to follow suit.
— Kavita Jadhav, Wood Mackenzie

103
China

32
India
12
China is set to have two new United
nuclear reactors operational States
in 2023, and is expected to
have another 20 reactors
operational by 2028.
30 12
Russia Turkey

The U.S. allocated

$15.6B for nuclear
Japan accelerated the restarts power production
of nine nuclear reactors by
winter 2022 and a further
8 credits in the IRA.
Romania
seven by summer 2023. 6
Poland
Germany extended the The UK announced
lifetime of three plants that
were set to shutdown in 2022.
plans to build eight
new reactors and 6
16 small modular
reactors.
UK 5
South
France reversed course to Korea
reduce reliance on nuclear with 4
a plan to build six reactors. Bulgaria

Sources: Global Energy Monitor, IMF, U.S. Congressional Budget Office, World Nuclear Association 39
 VC Audience Survey
Q
WILL THE RUSSIA–UKRAINE CONFLICT ESCALATE IN 2023?

29% 35% 26%

Cool off Stay the same Escalate

Total votes: 1,306, conducted via Twitter, Instagram and LinkedIn

GEOPOLITICAL STORM CLOUDS

U.S. Public Opinion

The American public holds a mostly pessimistic view
of global stability and relations over the coming year.

Q
WHICH IS MORE LIKELY TO BE TRUE?

A peaceful year, more or less free of international disputes,

or a troubled year with much international discord?

14% 85%

More peaceful More troubled

Q
WHICH IS MORE LIKELY TO BE TRUE?

A year when China will A year when America will A year when Russia will
increase its power in the increase its power in the increase its power in the
world, or a year when China’s world, or a year when world, or a year when
power will decline? America's power will decline? Russia's power will decline?

26% 73% 35% 64% 64% 35%

Growing Declining Growing Declining Growing Declining

power power power power power power

Source: Gallup

40
 6 Spicy
predictions
for tech

In 2023, Elon will tire of Twitter,

driven as much by the reality of his waning
wealth at Tesla as by the sheer biological reality
of endorphin fatigue. He’ll hire a real CEO who
commands respect in the ad world, contractually
obligate himself to not meddle, and find some
way to claim victory in what will otherwise
become a world-class Harvard Business School
Case in What Not To Do. Given all this, in 2023
Twitter will rebound, and by the end of the year,
12
the stories will be about the miraculous rebirth
of The Bird, because, well, that’s always been The Web3 vision fades

Twitter’s story.
The biggest potential
business loser this year
is Google Search.
3
John Battelle into the rear view.
With the events of 2022 having made
pro-crypto partisans look like fools,
and the threat of a recession making
venture capitalists more cautious in
the New Year, expect 2023 to carry

4
lots of crypto startups to their graves.
Casey Newton
Chamath Palihapitiya (All-In Podcast)

The age of the

tech CEO hero will
come to an end.

56
Jessi Hempel and Tanya Dua
(LinkedIn)

It really does feel like there's a kind

of awakening happening among
bosses in Silicon Valley, who see
Elon Musk doing all these things,
getting away with it, and thinking,
"Why can't I do that too?" Meta’s main
NYT (Hard Fork podcast)
threat is its
own boss,
not AI.
Azeem Azhar
(Exponential View)

Art by Midjourney. Prompt: chili pepper, white marble sculpture, realistic details, symmetrical, isolated background 41
2023 Calendar General/presidential elections
Parliamentary/legislative elections

Economy Elections Geopolitics

January 16 – 20th / WEF Annual Meeting 13 – 4th Croatia enters
Czech Rep. Eurozone and
adopts the euro

February Jan 31st – Feb 1st / FOMC Meeting 25th Nigeria 5th / EU ban on
Russian oil product
2nd / ECB and BoE monetary policy
imports takes effect
meetings and report release (BoE)

March 16th / ECB monetary policy meeting 5th Estonia 5th / China's
National People's
21 – 22nd / FOMC meeting with
Congress opens its
Summary of Economic Projections
first annual session
23rd / BoE monetary policy meeting
28th / U.S. fiscal year 2023 budget release

April 1st / UK energy price guarantee 2nd Finland 30th Paraguay

rises from £2500 to £3,000

May 2 – 3rd / FOMC Meeting 7th Thailand 19 – 23rd / G7 summit

hosted in Japan
11th / BoE monetary policy End of May /
meeting and report release European entry/exit
system (EES) will be
operational

June 13 – 14th / FOMC meeting with 18th Turkey 25th Guatemala

Summary of Economic Projections
15th / ECB monetary policy meeting
22nd / BoE monetary policy meeting

July 25 – 26th / FOMC meeting 23rd Cambodia 1st / Spain takes

over the rotating
27th / ECB monetary policy meeting presidency of the
End of July Council of the EU
Greece
11 – 12th /
NATO summit

August 3rd / BoE monetary Before 1st

policy meeting and report Myanmar
In August / Jackson Hole Symposium

September 14th / ECB monetary policy meeting Before 13st 9 – 10th / G20
Singapore summit in New Delhi
19 – 20th / FOMC meeting
21st / BoE monetary policy meeting

October 26th / ECB monetary policy meeting 8th Before 12th 29th
Luxembourg Pakistan Argentina

November Oct 31 – Nov 1st / FOMC meeting 11th Poland By end of November
European ETIAS travel
2nd / BoE monetary policy authorization system
meeting and report November will be operational
Belarus

December 12 – 13th / FOMC meeting with Before 10th 20th

Summary of Economic Projections Spain DR Congo
14th / ECB and BoE monetary
policy meetings
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 Top Picks for Further Reading
Outlook 2023
A searchable database of everything
Wall Street expects to happen in 2023.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graph-
ics/2023-investment-outlooks/
Top Risks 2023
Eurasia Group’s risks report is packed with
sharp analysis and specific predictions for
the upcoming year in geopolitics.
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/files/up-
load/EurasiaGroup_TopRisks2023.pdf
Art by Midjourney. Prompt: businesswoman working, realistic lush tropical plants, white marble sculpture, cinematic lighting.
Predictions 2023
Forrester’s latest batch of predictions distills
world class research into clear takeaways.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graph-
ics/2023-investment-outlooks/
Big Ideas for 2023
LinkedIn’s editorial team teams up with
experts across a variety of disciplines to
produce this wide-ranging outlook.
https://www.linkedin.com/-
pulse/41-big-ideas-change-our-world-2023-linkedin-news/
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10 predictions for 2023 FT Writers’ Predictions
Wood Mackenzie analysts offer 10 predictions
for key developments expected in the energy
and natural resources industries in 2023.
https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/ten-predictions-for-2023/
The Financial Times has some of the most
knowledgeable writers in the business, so
their predictions worth paying attention to.
https://www.ft.com/content/9784cc74-1193-4e1b-bf61-8ecaf19f569e

2023 Predictions 10 Predictions For 2023

NYU Professor and author, Scott
Galloway, pulls no punches in his
sharp, entertaining analysis of how
the coming year could unfold.
https://www.profgalloway.com/2023-predictions/
Michael Batnick of Ritholtz Wealth Management
is honest about the futility of market predictions,
but that doesn’t stop him from making some
very credible ones of his own.
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/01/02/10-predictions-for-2023/

Additional Resources
Council on Foreign Relations

What in the World Will Happen in 2023

https://www.cfr.org/article/what-world-will-happen-2023

Loup

Loup’s 2023 Predictions

https://loupfunds.com/loups-2023-predictions/

JPMorgan

Investment Outlook 2023

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/mi-investment-outlook-ce-en.pdf

Stifel

Outlook 2023: Finding Balance

https://www.stifel.com/Newsletters/AdGraphics/InSight/Outlook/2023/Outlook2023.pdf

Bankrate

Housing Market Predictions for 2023

https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/housing-market-predictions-2023/

Matt Stoller

What’s Coming in 2023 on the Monopoly Front?

https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/whats-coming-in-2023-on-the-monopoly

Bankless

2023 Predictions
https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/bankless-2023-predictions

John Battel

Search Blog Predictions ‘23

https://battellemedia.com/archives/2022/12/predictions-23-the-summary

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