Mont eCar loSi mulati

on
Asanal t
ernativ
et othePERTt ec hnique,wec anuseMont eCar los i
mulati
on
approac h.Mont eCarlos i
mul ati
onar e ac las sofgeneralanalysistechni
questhatar
e
val
uabl etos olveanypr oblem thati sc ompl ex,nonli
near,orinvolvesmor ethanj
usta
coupleofunc er
tainparamet ers.Mont eCar los i
mulat
ionsinvolverepeatedrandom
samplingt ocomput ether esults.Si ncet hi
st echni
quei sbasedonr epeated
comput ati
onofr andom number s ,itbec omeseas i
ertous ethistechniquewhen
avai
lableasac omputerprogr am.
Crit
icalChainConcept s
Thischapterhasstressedt hei
deat hattheforecastforthedurati
onofanac ti
v i
ty
cannotinreal
it
ybeas i
ngl enumber ,butmus tbear angeofdur ati
ons.Howev er,we
woul dwanttopickonev al
ueint hatrangewhi chwoul dbethetargetThedurati
on
chos enasthetargetmi ghtbet heonet hatseemst obet hemos tl
ikely
.Imagine
someonewhoc ycl
est owor keac hday
I
tmaybet hatonav er
agei ttakesthem about mi nutestocompletethejourney,
butons omeday sitcouldbemor eandonot hersi
tc ouldheless
RiskManagement
Riskreductionacti
vit
ieswoul dappeart ohav eonlyasmal li
mpac tonr educingthe
probabil
i
tyofs omer i
s ks,f
orex amples t
affabsencethroughil
lness*Whi lesonic
employersenc ouragetheirempl oyeestoadoptaheal thyli
fest
yle,i
tremai nslikel
y
thatsomepr oj
ectteam member swillatsomepoi ntbebroughtdownmi nori l
l
nes ses
suc hasflu.Thesek indsofr i
skneedac onti
ngenc ypl
an.*Thisisapl annedac ti
on
t
obec arr
iedoutifthepar ti
cul
arr i
skmat eri
ali
zes.*I
fateam memberi nvolvedin
urgentwor kwereillt
hent heprojectmanagermi ghtdrafti
nanot hermemberofs taf
f
t
oc overthatwor k.
EvaluatingRi skst otheSchedul e
Thisil
l
us tr
atedt hepointt
hataf or
ecas tofthet i
meneededt odoaj obismos t
real
ist
icall
ypres entedasagr aphoflikel
ihoodofar angeoffigures,wi
tht hemos t
l
ikel
ydur ati
onast hepeakandt hec hancesoft hejobt aki
nglongerors hor t
ershown
asc ur
vess lopingdownonei thersideoft hepeak .*Thuswec anshowt hatajob
mighttakef i
veday sbutt
hatthereisas mal lchanceitmightneedf ourors ixdays,
andas mall
erc hanc eoft
hreeors evenday s,ands oon* I
fat aski
napr ojectt
akes
l
ongert hanplanned,wemi ghthopet hats omeot hertaskmighttakelessandt hus
compens atefort hi
sdelay.
Appl yingt hePERTTechni que
UsingPERTt oev al
uatetheef f
ec tsofuncertai
nty
PERTwasdev el
opedt otakeac countoftheunc ert
aintysurr
oundi nges t
imatesof
t
askdur ations.*Itwasdev elopedi nanenv ir
onmentofex pensi
v e,high-r
iskand
st
ate- of-
the- ar
tproject
s— nott hatdissi
milartomanyoft oday '
sl argesoftware
pr
ojec ts.Themet hodi sverys i
mi l
artotheCPM t echnique( i
ndeedmany
pr
ac ti
tioner suset hetermsPERTandCPM i nt
erchangeably)but,insteadofus i
nga
si
nglees ti
mat eforthedur at
ionofeac htask,PERTr equi
resthreees ti
mat es*Most
l
ik
el ytime:t het i
mewewoul dex pectthetasktot akeundernormal cir
cum- st
ances,
Wes hallidentif
yt hi
sby' t
hel et
term
RiskAssessment
Ac ommonpr obl
em wi t
hr i
skidenti
ficat
ionisthatali
stofrisksispotential
lyendl
ess
*Awayi sneededofdi st
inguishi
ngt hedamagi ngandl i
kelyr
isks.*Thisc anbedone
byes ti
matingtheriskexpos ureforeachr i
skus i
ngtheformula:riskexpos ure=
(potent
ialdamage)*( probabili
tyofoc c
urrence).
Us i
ngthemos tr
igorous-butnotnec essari
lythemos tpract
ical–appr oach,the
potenti
aldamagewoul dbeas sessedasamoneyv al
ue* Sayapr ojectdependedon
adat acentervul
nerablet ofir
e.
RiskPl anni ng
Havingi dentifi
edt hemaj orr i
sksandal locatedpr i
ori
ties,thet aski stodec i
dehowt o
dealwitht hem.* Thec hoicesdi scussedwi l
lbe:* Riskac cept ance* Ri skav oidanc e
*Ris
kr educ ti
onandmi ti
gation * Risktransfer.
Riskaccept ance: :* Thisisthedo- nothingopt ion.*Wewi l
l alr
eady ,int her isk
pri
ori
ti
z ati
onpr oces s,hav edec i
dedt oi gnores omer isksinor dert oc onc entrateon
t
hemor el i
kelyordamagi ng* Wec oulddec idet hatthedamagei nfl
ictedbys ome
ri
skswoul dbel esst hant hec os t
sofac ti
ont hatmi ghtreduc et hepr obabi li
tyofar i
s k
Riskavoi dance:* Someac ti
vit
iesmaybe s opr onet oac cidentt hatitisbes tt o
avoidthem al together .*Ifyouar ewor r
ieds har ksthendon’ tgoi ntot hewat er.*For
exampl e,givenal l t
hepr oblemswi thdev elopings oftwar efrom s cratch,manager s
mightdec idet oretai nex ist
ingc leri
calmet hods ,ortobuyanof f-
the- shelfs oluti
on.
Riskreduct ion:* Her ewedec idetogoaheadwi t
hac ourseofac t
iondes pitethe
ri
sks,butt akepr ec aut i
onst hatr educet hepr obabi l
it
yoft her isk.
* Thisc hapt ers t
arted
withas cenar i
owher etwooft hes taf
fs chedul edt owor k.
Risktransf er :I
: nt hisc as ether iskistrans f
erredt oanot herper s onoror gani zati
on.
*Withs oftwar eproj ec t
s,anex ampl eoft hiswoul dbewher eas oftwar edev elopment
taskisout sour cedt oanout si
deagenc yforaf ixedf ee.
Categor iesofRi sk::
AnI CTpr ojectmanageri snormal l
ygiventheobj ecti
veofinstal
li
ngt her equired
applicat
ionbyas pec i
fieddeadl i
neandwi t
hinanagr eedbudget .*Otherobj ecti
ves
mightbes et,especial
lywi thregardtoqual i
tyrequir
e-ments.*Proj
ec trisksar et
hose
t
hatc ouldpr eventtheac hi
evementoft heobj ect
ivesgiventothepr ojectmanager
andt hepr oj
ec tt
eam.* Aswenot edinchapter ,t herecoul
dber i
skst hatan
applicat
ionaf t
ersuc ces s
fulimplementationis abus i
nes sf
ail
ure.*Thusi fan
e-commer ces i
tei
ses t
abl i
shedtos el
lapr oduct,thes i
t
emi ghtbec orrectly
i
mpl ement ed,butcus tomer sfai
ltous ethes i
tebec auseoftheunc ompet it
ivepri
ces
demanded