MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW Vou: 123 Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds ANDRE TREMBLAY AND ANNA GLAZER Atmospheric Environment Service, Cloud Physics Research Division. Dorval, Quebec, Canada WANDA SzvRMER Deparement of Physics, Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada Grorce Isaac Amospheric Environment Service, Cloud Physics Research Division, Dorval, Quebec, Canada Iszrar ZAWADZKI Department of Atmospheric and Oceanie Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada (Manuscript received 29 March 1994, in fina form 29 November 1994) ABSTRACT Using parameterzations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events i suggested. This technique can be coupled onthe mesoscale witha prognostic eqaton for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The procedure & validated using comparisons wih airborne measurements from the Canadian Adantic ‘Stans Program As anlusration of the aplication of his forecast echrique, constant-pressure maps showing regions of cloud ice, supercooled cloud water, and cloud liquid water ae presented fortwo particular cases. 1. Introduction Winter extratropical cyclones typically produce a tich variety of cloud and precipitation types including snow, ice pellets, rain, and/or freezing rain (Stewart 1992). Supercooled cloud water (SCW) is present over large areas in such winter storms, which can lead to hazardous conditions for aircraft. Aircraft icing can cause a loss of lift, possible engine malfunctions due 10 ice ingestion, increased drag and fuel consumption, ‘and sometimes even disasters. Accurate forecasting of regions of potential icing is crucial for flight planning and poses a challenging problem to the meteorologist. ‘Without adequate cloud physics in numerical predic- tion models, it is not possible to produce reliable fore- casts of cloud distributions and icing events. Jn this paper, a technique is suggested to forecast ‘SCW events on the mesoscale using an available cloud- ‘water scheme (¢.g., Sundqyist et al. 1989). To develop and justify this technique, the results of cloud micro- physical simulations, mesoscale numerical integra- tions, and an analysis of aircraft data collected from Corresponding author address: Dr. André Tremblay, Cloud {cs Division, Atmospheric Environment Service, 2121 Trans-Canada Highway, Dorval, Quebec HOP 133, Canada. ‘Eemal:aemblay @rpa.aes.doc.ca (© 1995 American Metoorological Society two flights during the Canadian Atlantic Storm Pro- gram (CASP II) are discussed. The numerical cloud microphysics model of Zawadzki et al. (1993), here- after referred to as Z93, was used. The Canadian re- ‘gional finite-element model, as described by Benoit et al. (1989), was selected for the SCW forecasting scheme. A description of the aircraft instrumentation ‘used during CASP I, and of typical icing environments in winter storms over the Canadian east coast, is given by Cober et al. (1995). This article is organized as follows. A description of the meteorological conditions for two CASP II cases are given. Then, mesoscale numerical simulations are discussed for these cases. To understand the physics associated with the formation of SCW, and to derive a ‘parameterization for its prediction, the results of several ‘loud microphysical simulations are then analyzed. An SCW forecasting scheme is then presented and com- pared with airborne measurements obtained during the two CASP I cases. An illustrative example of the tech- nique is then given by showing regions of cloud ice, supercooled cloud water, and cloud liquid water on cconstant-pressure maps. 2. CASP Il cases and fights data ‘Two CASP Il flights were sclected for analysis and simulation: 5 February 1992 (fight 10) and 29 Feb-Jun 1995, TREMBLAY ET AL Fc. 1. Infrared satelite images (Lamber projection) superimposed with frontal analysis and research aircraft ight tack forthe £wo selected cases: (a) 2355 UTC 5 Pebrunry 1992; (b) 2355 UTC 29 February 1992. Numbers refer 0 sequential positions of the aircraft and Teuters to positions of liquid water content detected by the aircraft along ite trajectory. ruary 1992 (flight 27). During these flights, super- cooled liquid water patches were often encountered, making an evaluation of SCW forecasts possible. These two flights were chosen partly due to the relatively ‘200d operational status of the aircraft instruments, and due to the typical meteorological signature of the storms involved. ‘The situation prevailing on 5 February at 2355 UTC is depicted in Fig. 1a. Tt shows an infrared satellite pic- ture of the cloud field, superimposed with a frontal a FLIGHT-10: 05 Feb. 1992: 2218.0224 UTC analysis, and with a horizontal projection of the re- search aircraft trajectory. Numbers refer to the sequen. tial position of the aircraft during the flight and letters to positions of liquid water content detected along the trajectory. The analysis shows a 978-mb low pressure system centered near 43°N, 59°W with a typical comma cloud spiraling around the low pressure center. During the day this system entered a phase of strong devel- ‘opment with a deepening of 20 mb during a 24-h pe- riod. Very strong winds and snow were associated with b FLIGHT-27: 29 Feb, 1992: 2236-0212 UTC Fic. 2. Aireraft ajectories forthe two CASP II fights.2100 120 10 2030 60 30° this system, and nearly 25 cm of snow fell on St. John’s and Gander, Newfoundland. Figure 2a displays a three-dimensional view of the aircraft mission on 5 February. The aircraft took off from St. John’s at 2215 UTC, climbed to a cruising altitude of about 6 km, and flew south to reach point 2 at 0000 UTC. After this time, the aircraft was at an altitude of about 1 km and tracked southwest to reach point 3 around 0040 UTC. This flight segment provides a good sampling of the mesoscale structure of the ther- mal wave crest, and weak intermittent signals of SCW were detected along this path. Subsequently, the air- craft flew northeast to reach point 4 at 0125 UTC. Su- ppercooled liquid water was measured (event A) along much of this segment and caused rapid icing of the aircraft. At point 4, the aircraft was at an altitude of 5 km and had already started to return to St. John’s. Dur- ing its descent to the airport, the aircraft encountered an SCW patch that caused clear icing (event B). ‘The trajectory of the CASP Il research flight 27 on 29 February is depicted in Fig. 2b. An important aspect Of this mission is the cold-frontal penetration (segment 2-3-4) that reveals the mesoscale structure of the cold front. Of particular interest is the detection of liquid MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW CASP II GRID Vouvme 123 125 x 125 110 Fic. 3. The mesoscale grid used for RFE integrations. 120 water events C, D, E, and F in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Events C, D, and F are characterized by the presence of SCW, and event E shows the tran- sition between SCW and cloud water when the tem- perature goes above freezing as the aircraft descends to low levels. 3. Mesoscale simulations To provide a framework for the icing prediction scheme, numerical mesoscale simulations were per- formed with the Canadian operational regional finite- element (RFE) model (Benoit et al. 1989). The vari- able-resolution grid used in the RFE model (Fig. 3) contains two parts: a central part with uniform resolu- tion, covering the region of interest, and a remaining part where resolution gradually decreases. For the sim- ulations discussed in this paper, horizontal grid points were distributed over a range of 125 x 125 to 299 X 299 on the hemisphere, to obtain a 3000 km x 3000 km region at resolutions varying from 50 to 15 km, with 23 vertical levels, centered on 47°N, 55°W (Fig. 3). The meteorological fields necessary to initialize the ‘model were obtained by interpolation from the opera-Buy 1995 TREMBLAY ET AL FRc. 4 (2) The 18:h forecast (polar stereographic projection) valid 0000 UTC 6 February 1992 of vertically integrated water content (haded at 0.01, 0.5, and 1.0 min) superimposed with Sea level pressure (slid) and 1000~500-mb thicknesses (dashed); (b) as in (a) but for (0000 UTC 1 March'1992, tional Canadian Meteorological Centre objective anal- ysis, For the purpose of this study, the most important feature of the model is the use of an explicit treatment ‘of condensation and clouds, based on Sundqvist et al. (1989). In this formulation, the cloud content is a prog- nostic variable of the model, Release and evaporation of condensate are assumed to depend on cloud water mixing ratio and cloud cover. The enhanced precipi- tation release due to the Bergeron—Findeisen process is also parameterized. Cloud formation is assumed to take place when the relative humidity in a grid box exceeds a given threshold value (80%). The scheme is closed with a diagnostic equation for the cloud cover. ‘The predictive cloud scheme has been implemented in the model by Pudykiewicz et al. (1992.), and itis used here as a framework for the supercooled cloud predic- tion study. Before discussing the above mentioned simulations, it is helpful to describe briefly several preliminary tests that have been made to ensure that the simulations are not affected by some nonphysical numerical parame- ters. From several simulations, the minimum domain size was determined such that a further expansion would not affect the numerical solution. Additional simulations were performed with the same domain, but at different horizontal resolutions. Increasing. model resolution to 25 and 15 km gave a more detailed de- scription of mesoscale features without changing their general characteristics. The 15-km simulations were used to investigate cloud microphysics and the 50-km simulations are used for the forecasting applications. ‘The time step (180 s) chosen was dictated by accuracy and matching with aircraft data, and not by numerical stability, The standard test of halving the time step ver- iffed the convergence of the numerical solution. Ad- ditional tests were also made to ensure that the numer- ical filters used by the model do not alter the conclu- sions. ‘Since there is an explicit equation for cloud liquid water content in the model, the vertically integrated cloud water content can be calculated. Thus, to illus- trate the skill of the model to forecast the mesoscale structure of the cloud field and various meteorological variables, Fig. 4 displays the model integrated liquid water content superimposed on the sea level pressure and 1000-500-mb thickness fields. A comparison be- tween Fig. 4 and Fig. 1 indicates that the model cap- tures the general morphology of the cloud field, the position of the low pressure center, and the location of| the frontal system for each of the two cases. 4, Cloud microphysics simulations 4a. Objectives and approximations For modeling cloud and precipitation processes in atmospheric models, there are several major parame- terization schemes, each with a different degree of complexity. For example, a widely used scheme in small-scale cloud models is the warm-rain parameter- ization first suggested by Kessler (1969). This scheme. considers detailed microphysical processes and has prognostic equations for cloud water and rainwater.2102 ‘These equations include explicit terms for each micro- physical process that account for transfer of the water substance between different categories. For adequate treatment of cloud and precipitation types usually pres- ent in winter storms, an explicit inclusion of ice phase is essential. Thus, additional equations for different ice particle categories must be considered. A number of investigators have suggested different schemes for modeling ice phase within clouds [e.g., Koenig and Murray 1976; Orville and Kopp 1977; Lin et al. 1983; Zawadzki et al. 1993 (293)]. These schemes are ex- pensive and computer limitations usually prevent their incorporation in large-scale models. For this reason our mesoscale integrations are based on the Sundqvist scheme outlined above. However, this procedure does not account for ice phase microphysics, which is es- sential for correctly predicting the distribution of su- percooled water in clouds that might be glaciated, To understand the conditions for the existence of SCW, four simulations of cloud microphysics are dis- cussed. The two-dimensional kinematics cloud micro- physics model of Z93 was used. The model includes conservation equations for temperature, water vapor (qo), cloud water (q-), cloud ice (q,), tain (q,), snow (q,), and graupel (q,) for a total of 39 mass transfers between different water categories. The formulation of these mechanisms is based mainly on Lin et al. (1983) and Rutledge and Hobbs (1984). Following a direction parallel to Rutledge and Hobbs (1983, 1984), the characteristics of cloud microphysics associated with mesoscale circulations were studied within a two-dimensional kinematical framework. The cloud model is forced with a constant flow extracted from the mesoscale integrations discussed above. This is approximately equivalent to a Galilean transforma- tion moving with the evolving storm, neglecting large- scale dynamical tendencies. This approach is justifiable since the timescale associated with microphysical pro- cesses (~1 h) is significantly smaller than the lifetime of the synoptic storm (approximately a few days) Clearly, io feedback mechanisms between microphys- ical and dynamical processes were simulated in the model. The vertical cross sections of fields used to force the microphysics model correspond to selected research aircraft flight segments displayed in Fig. | and are listed in Table 1. Simulation F1023A is typical of a warm-frontal situation, and runs F1034 and F2712 are representative of icing conditions encountered by MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW Vout 123 the research aircraft during flights 10 and 27. Since these three runs are characterized by generation of SCW, it is suitable to have a situation with no SCW. ‘Thus, run F1023B was initialized with fields matching the same aircraft flight segment in space but refers to the time prior to the research flight. Each of the four simulations was integrated for a vertical x—z cross sec- tion Lx = 230-320 km, Lz = 10 km, Ax = 5 km, Az = 200 m, and Ar = 15's. The prescribed airflow, and the initial moisture and temperature fields, were tracted from high resolution (15 km) mesoscale simu- lations and they were interpolated on the grid of the cloud model. The model was integrated in time until steady-state values of the various microphysical fields were achieved. In all cases a quasi-steady state was reached after | h of simulation time and the results are analyzed for t = 2h. b. An example of a cloud microphysics simulation Figure 5 depicts the initial conditions of temperature ‘and moisture superimposed on the prescribed constant airflow used for simulation F1023A. Note the region in the warm sector where the temperature exceeds 10°C, the moist air at low levels ahead of the frontal zone, and the well-defined transverse circulation associated with frontal lifting. Such mesoscale structures within winter storms are well known and appear often in numerical simulations (eg., Mailhot and Chouinard 1989). Figures 6a and 6b show composite pictures of cloud and precipitation types, superimposed with the temper- ature field after a 2-h integration for the run F1023A. In Fig. 6a, there are layers in the cloud field ahead of the warm front. For high levels, where T = -25°C, cloud ice exists exclusively. For regions with -25°C = T < ~10°C, supercooled cloud water and ice crystals are simultaneously present. These low temperatures fa- vor the activation of freezing nuclei (Fletcher's num- ber) and ice crystals can grow by deposition of water vapor at the expense of liquid cloud (Bergeron effect). ‘These crystals grow to sufficiently large dimensions to initiate snow (Fig. 6b). A large area of SCW is also present between —10° and 0°C on the cold size of the frontal zone. In this region the warmer temperatures do not allow the activation of freezing nuclei, but the amount of liquid water is limited by the vapor depo- sition on falling snow. Thus, supercooled water is likely not abundant in the presence of heavy snow, un- ‘TABLE 1. Cloud microphysics simulations summary. Flight Initialization time Run Flight segment Te) Comments FI023A 0 1-3 (0100 UTC 6 Feb 92 ‘warm front: SCW patches 10238 0 23 2043 UTC 5 Feb 92 cold air mass F034 10 a4 (0109 UTC 6 Feb 92 ‘warm tongue aloft: event A F712 27 ie 2312 UTC 29 Feb 92 warm sector: events C,E, FSuLr 1995 aS I~ EISSN TREMBLAY ET AL 2103 SG SSS EK ee Frio, 5. Meteorological conditions in an x~z (320 km X 10 km) plane used to initialize the cloud micro physics model for run FIO23A. The arrows represen the prescribed airflow (veical component scaled by a factor of 100); shaded areas depict relative humidity dissbaion (shaded for 70%, 80%, and 90%); andthe isolines show the temperature (at each 5*C, negative dashed). less the condensation rate significantly exceeds the de- position rate on snow. Various precipitation types are reproduced by the model as indicated in Fig. 6b. Snow covers entirely the region colder than freezing where precipitation exits, and is associated either with grau- pel, or with freezing rain and graupel. just ahead of the warm front. 5. A parameterization for supercooled clouds ‘The four cloud microphysics simulations are repre- sentative of two typical winter storms and can be used to study specific conditions for the existence of SCW. Figure 7 depicts the average relative contribution of various components to the total hydrometeor mass wherever SCW is present after 2 h of simulation. The average SCW events are mainly associated with snow. Roughily speaking, snow and SCW account for about 87% of the total hydrometeor mass. This suggests that simple model involving only these two types can be used to describe SCW events. It should be mentioned that graupel, or spherical or conical ice particles, are rarely observed at ground level in Canadian east coast storms. Graupel represents only 13% of the total mass in these cases, which is probably an overestimate of its relative importance. The graupel category in our mi- crophysical parameterization includes all products of interaction between solid and liquid particles (heavily timed snow, ice pellets, hail, etc.), such that the product ‘may attain a density of 0.5 g om” in 5 min or less. This ‘may account for the larger fraction of “‘graupel” in the ‘model output compared to the frequency of graupel oc- ‘currence reported in standard surface observations. To illustrate the predominant processes leading to the formation of supercooled clouds, all of the cloud microphysics simulations were combined. In Fig. 8, the result of this exercise is shown after 2 h. The nomen- lature corresponding to the symbols is given in Table 2. In Fig. 8, the processes have been sorted and nor- ‘malized by the rate at which water vapor becomes su- ppersaturated due to adiabatic cooling when the air is displaced vertically (wG). Note that only seven pro- ‘cesses appear in Fig. 8 and in Table 2. Even though the simulations included the full microphysical package with 39 processes, only these seven processes contrib- Lute significantly to the generation of supercooled cloud ‘water. All of the other processes contributed to values, less that 1 unit on the scale depicted in Fig. 8, and therefore are not included in the discussion. ‘The microphysical processes and hydrometeors in- volved in the production of SCW are illustrated in Fig, 9. The diagram shows the average microphysical con- ditions characterizing the occurrence of supercooled liquid water in the simulations. For 100 units of water vapor excess over saturation produced by adiabatic cooling (wG), 58 condense (COND) and 35 are de- posited on snow (SDEP). Snow efficiently depletes the cloud, as indicated by the large contribution of SACW 54. Alternatively, graupel is an important sink for snow (GACS = 41). This contributes indirectly to ‘maintain SCW at a higher concentration. When snow aggregates are replaced by graupel particles, the sur- face-to-volume ratio is decreased, leading to less vapor deposition and less accretion, The diagram also indi- cates that freezing rain is a highly transient phenome-2104 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW Voune 123 CLOUD TYPES Renee Sctnoad SS eae eek Fic. 6. Steady-state conditions fr run F1023A of (a) cloud types and (b) precipitation types, ‘perimposed with temperature field non: itis efficiently captured by snow to form graupel and it never accumulates significantly (see Fig. 7) From an examination of the: numbers in Fig. 9, the following simplified model for microphysics within su- percooled clouds at steady state is suggested: COND = (wG — SDEP) = SACW. (1) To illustrate (1), Fig. 10 shows a scattergram of COND versus (WG ~ SDEP) for all points (2404) with SCW in the four microphysical simulations. Condensation (COND), and therefore points where supercooled cloud water is likely present, can be approximated from (1) as indicated by the strong correlation shown in Fig. 10.Jovy 1995 vce ‘oRAUPEL % Fic. 7, Average distribution of mass for hydrometeor types fr the four microphysics simulations within regions with supercooled coud Equation (1) can be further analyzed to infer a di- agnostic for the cloud water content. A derivation of the mathematical expression for the collection of cloud water by snow (SACW) is given in Z93: -[2 2(2) Vo = sacw = [F pbvatt (2) |e [Pla (2) where M?** is a moment of the snow particle distr bation and is related empirically to g,. Definitions and values of constants and parameters are also given in FRc. 8. Relative importance of microphysical processes Within supereooted elouds. TREMBLAY ET AL 2105 ‘Tante 2. Nomenclature for microphysical mechanisms. Notation Deseription wo generation of supersaturated water vapor COND ‘Condensation of water vapor SACW ‘collection of cloud water by snow Gacs collection of snow by graupel SDEP 0. (4) conp vs (we ~ sDEP) 099 . SACW vs (wG — SDEP) oss It is clear from Fig. 9 that it should be possible in, ve (wG ~ SDEPY® 72 principle to consider a more refined criterion for the existence of SCW with the introduction of the con tion COND > SACW. This modifies the decision cri- terion to WG — SDEP > ¢, where ¢ is expressed in terms of the regression coefficients implicitly embodied in (1). However, due to the obvious degradation of the information as more detailed microphysical parameters are included (Table 3), this alternative may yield an inappropriate refinement. For this reason, an attempt is made to derive a qualitative criterion for the existence of SCW. The evaluation of this procedure is given below. Using the definition of G as given by Kessler (1969) and the Clausius—Clapeyron equation, it is demon- strated that (5) where rs is the saturation mixing ratio; T., the moist- adiabatic lapse rate; T the temperature; L, the latent heat of vaporization; R, and R, the gas constants for water ‘cono 0.008 +00 vapor and dry air, respectively; g the acceleration of gravity; and p the density of air. The vertical velocity, temperature, and pressure are routinely available from ‘mesoscale integrations and can be used to calculate wG at each grid point on the mesoscale grid. If it is assumed that supercooled clouds are saturated with respect to water, it can be shown that the micro- physical process SDEP is a function of temperature and snow content q,. A simple formula is obtained for SDEP by integrating the expression for crystal growth rate (Rogers 1979) over the snow size distribution: 2n(Si — 1) ) (TRRT) + (Ted) where 5, = ¢,/ey is the ratio of the saturation vapor pressure over water and ice, K the coefficient of thermal conductivity of air, D the coefficient of diffusion of water vapor in air. The parameter f, = 1 is a constant SDEP = (6) Wo -soer Fic. 10, A scatergram showing the relationship between (wG ~ SDEP) and COND. The diagram includes all points (2404) in the four uns where supercooled cloud water was simlated 6006-04 8.00606Jury 1995 3.00607 250607 200607 RATE Kits 8) 1.00607 s.00808 TREMBLAY ET AL 2107 0.006+00 ‘TEMPERATURE (C) Fig 1. A diagram illustrating the determination of supercooled liquid water ata given point asa function ‘of temperature, verical velocity (m 5"), snow content (gm), and pressure. ventilation (or adjustment) coefficient. The first mo- ment of the snow particle size distribution is related empirically to q, (293): Ms a where p, is the density of snow. However, snow content 4, is. not explicitly calculated with the simplified scheme used to represent cloud processes within the ‘mesoscale integrations. Instead, all cloud microphysi- cal parameters are combined within the single variable 1m that is calculated from am Gotan + O-(P- EB), me (8) here Am is the advection term, and Q is the source of ‘m and is expressed in terms of moisture convergence within a grid box with a correction for moistening the cloud-free portion of the grid volume. The terms P and E, are simple parameterized descriptions of fallout rate and evaporation of m, respectively. For simplicity, m is interpreted as the snow content q, to calculate SDEP when the temperature is below the freezing point. Clearly, with this approximation, other precipitation types are ignored, such as graupel (see Fig. 7). Con- sequently, SDEP is overestimated and the regions with potential SCW are minimized. It is expected that regions emerging from this criterion are the zones with the greatest potential probability for the occurrence of supercooled clouds. Equations (5)~(7) allow the qualitative criterion (4) to be expressed in terms of vertical velocity w, ait temperature T, pressure p, and snow content q.. These parameters are easier to obtain from large-scale data than full microphysical variables. For constant pres- sure, and with temperature as an independent variable, aan ensemble of functions wG indexed by vertical ve- locity, and an ensemble of functions SDEP indexed by snow content, are represented in Fig. 11. By fixing tem- perature (—15°C) and vertical velocity (0.09 ms~'), the point X in this figure is obtained. The proposed criterion states that forall the points on isotherm = 15°C. located below X, there is a possibility of existence of SCW. These points correspond to snow content lower than 0.06 gm"°. For all the points above X, corre- sponding to snow content greater than 0.06 gm”, an ice cloud exists. The point X may be also interpreted as characterizing fixed conditions of temperature (—15°C) and snow content (0.06 g m™). The eriterion predicts then the possibility of existence of SCW for vertical velocities exceeding 0.09 ms" (above point X), and ive cloud for vertical velocities lower than 0.09 m5" (below point X). 6. Verification with cloud microphysics simulations A simple way to evaluate the diagnostic technique outlined above is to apply it directly to the output of2108 the cloud microphysics model. For each microphysics simulation, vertical velocity, temperature, pressure, and total precipitation content at each grid point were ex- tracted where the temperature was below freezing. These data were then used to test if SCW was present or absent using the condition wG ~ SDEP > 0. The success or failure of the test was then evaluated from 4 direct comparison with the corresponding series of 4q.-In Table 4, the result of this procedure is shown for the four microphysics simulations. The first two col- tumns show the number of grid points in a simulation where SCW was present or absent. The following col- umns display the same information for the correspond- ing points deduced from the diagnostic technique out- Tined above. The last column is simply the total number of successes for the diagnostic. An examination of the data in this table also confirms that the purpose of run F1023B was to provide an environment where SCW ‘was generally not abundant. This was essential to bal- ance the sampling resulting from the three other runs. The total sample consisted of 2404 points with SCW, and 1963 points where SCW was absent. With the tec nique, it was possible to retrieve 2136 points with SCW, and 1525 points without SCW. Thus, for 89% of the points, the technique was successful in detecting SCW. Alternatively, for 78% of the points the tech- nique correctly found no SCW. The overall success was then 84%. It is interesting that even if the total depo- sition of vapor on snow is overestimated, it was pos- sible to retrieve 89% of SCW points. This relatively high level of success suggests that the approach has an adequate level of sophistication, and may be considered as a potential tool for a forecasting application. 7. Comparisons with aircraft data To compare mesoscale model predictions and ai craft measurements, fields of temperature, three-dimen- ional wind, specific humidity, and cloud water content ‘were interpolated in space and time along the aircraft trajectories displayed in Fig. 2. These time series were ‘compared directly with aircraft measurements. In the present investigation, only measurements of air tem- perature (Rosemount temperature sensor) and liquid ‘water content (PMS King probe) were used. Even if it is possible to perform mesoscale simulations at a res- olution of 15 km in a research mode, routine forecasts at such high resolution are still not feasible. For this reason, the technique was evaluated with integrations at 50 km, the actual operational resolution for the re- gional Canadian forecasting system. ‘Comparison of the simulated cloud field against air- craft observations was a difficult task. First, the model resolution was probably too coarse to simulate small- scale motions responsible for the variability of natural clouds. Second, during CASP I, significant portions of the flights were in glaciated clouds. The King probe installed on board the aircraft measures only the liquid MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW Vouuns 123 ‘TABLE 4. Comparison between full microphysics simulations and parameterization for determination of grid points with and without fupercooled cloud. Microphysics _ Parameterization Run SCW _NoSCW SCW _NoSCW _ Success FIBA 578187586157 703 FOB 1671158 99 10511150 Flos = 1008-331 BBB 201089 i re 719 Tool 240619632136 15253661 Success 19% TR BA water content and does not give a complete picture of the cloud distribution. For this reason, it was pertinent to introduce the diagnostic technique outlined above to the original cloud scheme for the determination of cloud phase. With this scheme, a direct comparison be- tween model liquid water distribution and aircraft mea- surements was possible. series of temperature, cloud ice, cloud water, and SCW were generated by using the mesoscale tem- perature, pressure, vertical velocity (with a correction for cloud cover) and the cloud variable m as input rameters to the procedure summarized in Fig. 11. Fig- ures 12 and 13 show time series of temperature and cloud content at each 10's, as measured by the instru- mented research aircraft, and the corresponding curves obtained from the model output and diagnostic by in- terpolation on the same interval. The high correlation between observed and simulated temperature se- quences illustrates the accuracy of the model for repro- ducing the mesoscale structure within storms. The or- igin of the large negative temperature bias in flight 10 between 2231 and 2341 UTC is not clear. Potential reasons are the coarse vertical resolution at elevated altitudes, a bias in the mesoscale model, or a problem with the temperature sensor within this time interval However, itis clear from Fig. 12 that after 2351 UTC, the two temperature curves follow each other. In par- ticular, itis possible to identify the warm sector of the mesoscale thermal wave as the aircraft was flying at a constant altitude of 1 km along flight segment 2-3. At that time, the aircraft measured an air temperature near 10°C. From point 3 onward, the model temperature forecast closely agrees with the aircraft observations. Allso of interest are the cloud water time series depicted in Fig. 12. To facilitate data visualization, the cloud ‘water measured aboard the aircraft has been multiplied by —I. Focusing on the model prediction, ice cloud, supercooled cloud water, and nonsupercooled cloud water are simulated along the aircraft trajectory. In par- ticular, short periods of SCW are predicted around 2341 and 0001 UTC, as the aircraft descended to point 2. A weak intermittent signal is detected by the aircraft near this time. More significant is the intense episode2109 . TREMBLAY ET AL Jovy 1995 ‘rme ute Eice Muauo sew @uouo mM scw onaunuveaanan (ew) wwaoo wav coe conoz cous oor cone otto: ooiso ooo oorscio ooo oor10.0 oonsex cover ooneee oostzsee oosntsee ooosee oosze oonviee oonsze ooneze ‘re (ure Fic, 12, Flight 10—model interpolated temperature and cloud content slong ateraft trajectory, providing a realtime ‘comparison between model outputs and airborne measurements. Numbers represent the sequential positions of the Ssicerft, nd letters the location of detcted SCW events (se Figs. land 2),owe 123 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 2110 ‘ovawoavusanas os'e0:2 oss: osionst overt osort os'90:1 os950 osezo overo os800 ovesiez oveciee oveziee ovouer osooiee ovesze me (ure) uoUO mI scw uoUD Mi scw (e110) 4NauNOD WRAY, overt overt overt ovr: os950 osc ovezo 0910 osouez osorce oversee ovorez oveee ovo ovesze overze ovecze ‘Tae (TC FRc. 13. As in Fig. 12 but fr flight 27 our diagnostic is based on a 19-h forecast, suggesting that the present framework might be suitable (0 assist of SCW predicted by the model between 0045 and the aircraft between 0100 and 0121 UTC. At this time, 0111 UTC (with a short period of ice cloud near 0105 ) ‘This matches fairly well the SCW event A detected byTREMBLAY ET AL. ait 8 nr test 200 mb UVooure sas: Fic. 14. Maps showing the distribution of cloud ice, cloud water, and supercooled clouds superimposed with temperature generated from ‘an 18h forecast ofthe mesoscale model valid 0000 UTC 1 March 1982. Isotherm contour interval at each 5° negative dashed forecasters for flight planning, The low-level liquid wa- ter episode is present in both model and measurements for the flight portion in the warm sector of the wave (segment 2-3). Finally, the forecast totally missed the SCW event B. This SCW caused clear icing on the aircraft and was associated with freezing drizzle from a layer of low-level stratocumulus clouds encountered during the final descent to St. John's airport. ‘Temperature and cloud content time series of model simulations and aircraft data recorded during flight 27 are depicted in Fig. 13. For this case, the model has a better performance. For example, the temperature time series does not show a time interval with a large bias as in Fig. 12. For this case, there is an average absolute difference of 1.4°C between model and observations. This is significantly better that the average error of 3.6°C obtained for flight 10. A closer inspection reveals several interesting features. The temperature inve near the surface at the beginning of the flight is simu- lated, With the help of Figs. | and 2, it is also possible to interpret the signature in the temperature time series of the cold-frontal aircraft penetration corresponding to the flight segment 2-3. Thus, starting from point 2, the temperature steadily decreased as the aircraft flew at ‘constant altitude toward the cold air mass. The sudden change of altitude just before point 3 is clearly reflected in the temperature trace. From point 3, the aircraft re- versed its direction and started to move back toward the warm air. This is also apparent in Fig. 13, since the temperature tendency changes its sign at this time. The signal corresponding to the second abrupt altitude change of the aircraft can also be easily detected in Fig. 13 around 0050 UTC. Finally, the response of temper- ‘lure sensor as the aircraft descended to low levels around 0130 UTC is simulated quite accurately. Figure 13 shows the aircraft detected an intermittent liquid water signal including three main peaks up to 0.6 gm” during the period 2306-2346 UTC (events C and D). It is noteworthy that a supercooled cloud ep- isode was forecasted between 2300 and 2336 UTC. Subsequently (0116-0136 UTC) during an aircraft de- scent to low levels in the warm sector, the aircraft in- strument detected a peak of 0.8 gm” of liquid water content. A similar signal is also apparent in the simu- lation. At the end of the flight (0156 UTC), an addi- tional event is present both in the model and observa- tions. & Application to aircraft-icing forecasting To provide an illustrative example of an application of the supercooled cloud water scheme, Fig. 14 shows two constant-pressure maps of cloud phase superim- posed with air temperature generated from an 18-h mesoscale forecast. This test integration is simply the 50-km run discussed in the preceding section. The maps show the distribution of cloud ice, cloud water, and supercooled clouds. SCW is localized to well-de- fined regions near the ~5°C isotherm. This is very dif- ferent from the operational CMC icing forecasting al- gorithm (Fig. 15), where aircraft icing was virtually predicted over most of the cloud shield. The procedure ‘underlying the production of the icing map displayed in Fig. 15 is simply locating points where model ver-212 FRc. 15, Freezing level and rime icing map. An 18:h forecast valid 0000 UTC 1 March 1992 ‘operational RFE 90-kim resolution run, Shading delineates regions of rime generated from aq {sing. Numbers indiate the base and top ofthe sare in hundreds of fet. tical velocity is upward and where the dewpoint de- pression is smaller than 2°C. Clearly, this approach is based on an insufficient input of cloud microphysics, and it does not have the potential to track regions of SCW with an acceptable degree of accuracy. Over- forecasting of icing regions creates a tendency for pi- lots to ignore these forecasts. 9. Summary and discussion This article describes the development and applica- tion of a technique for forecasting regions’of the at- mosphere where supercooled water is likely present. Predictions of supercooled cloud water (SCW ) regions are an essential step toward the development of im- proved aviation forecasting systems. Present aircraft-icing algorithms are mainly based on empiricism (e.g., Schultz and Politovich 1992) that re- late icing events to selected NWP model outputs. Thus, current icing forecasts are constructed on simple indi- cators such as temperature, dewpoint depression, and vertical motion fields, and typically tend to overesti- MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW Vowume 123, ing layer (kt). Labels on freezing evel contours mate the presence of icing regions. This causes a ten- dency for pilots to ignore icing forecasts and does little for search and rescue pilots who need to know the con- ditions they might encounter. In this paper, an approach based on a physical understanding is adopted. Three distinct tools were used in the investigation. First, per- tinent meteorological cases were selected where icing encounters were documented with aircraft measure- ments, This provided a framework to evaluate the SCW forecasting scheme. Second, a rescarch version of the Canadian mesoscale modeling system was used to gen- erate icing forecasts. Third, these results were used as fa background for application of a simple diagnostic scheme for the detection of SCW events in terms of mesoscale parameters. ‘A detailed study of the conditions typical of micro- physical processes associated with the existence of su- percooled cloud water prompted a simple criterion to diagnose SCW events in terms of parameters easily ac- cessible to numerical mesoscale forecasts. SCW is pos- sible in the presence of snow for points where the net generation rate of vapor excess above saturation is pos-Jovy 1995, re. This criterion is expressed in terms of vertical velocity, temperature, and snow content. These param- eters are easily obtained from mesoscale simulations. ‘An analysis based on this simple technique showed a high level of success in retrieving SCW regions. ‘An original aspect of this research is to provide com- parisons between mesoscale model outputs and air- ome measurements. During the course of the numer- ical integration selected model variables were interpo- lated in space and time along research aircraft trajectories. These time series were then compared with aircraft measurements for the two selected cases. Al- though it is possible to evaluate the model performance for simulating mesoscale structure within storms and for its potential for aircraft-icing forecasts, it is clear that similar (and more extensive) tests with the real observations are needed to conduct a validation. Also, it still remains to demonstrate that the present scheme gives reasonable results for other important situations, such as, mesoscale banded structures, slow ascent due 10 topography, and convection. However, the proce- dure has shown that the mesoscale model coupled with the diagnostic method for determination of SCW has potential for simulating the details of the cloud field, and the timing and location of SCW events for situa- tions controlled by large-scale ascent. The proposed scheme provides an interesting alternative that should improve actual forecasts of icing conditions often as- sociated with severe east coast winter storms. Future investigations should consider the contribution of sub- grid-scale processes since their omission is a potential ‘weakness of the present scheme. Finally, it should be mentioned that freezing rain and freezing drizzle present significant hazards to aircraft. ‘McKay and Thompson (1969) show that over 160 h of freezing precipitation occur annually for St. John’s, ‘Newfoundland. The maximum frequency of occur” rence of this phenomena within Canada occurs at this coastal site. Any scheme to predict aircraft icing must correctly identify freezing precipitation areas. Further ‘work is required to develop and verify freezing precip- itation forecast techniques. Acknowledgments. This work was funded by the Ca- nadian National Search and Rescue Secretariat. Fund- ing for the field project was also provided by the Inst tute for Aerospace Research (IAR) of the National TREMBLAY ET AL 2113 Research Council of Canada, Boeing Commercial Air- plane Group and Airbus Industrie. 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