Course Title: Mathematical Modeling in Biology

Course Code : MTHT 4207

Topic : EPIDEMIC MODEL

EPIDEMIC MODEL
2003

6(a)Describe the classical kermack Mckendrick model for an epidemic and show that

(b) Assuming small compared to then the number

of individuals who ultimately contact the disease is approximately .

2002

6. Describe the classical kermack Mckendrick model for an epidemic. Discuss the spread of
infection and comment on the threshold phenomenon and find the removal rate.

2001

6(a) Describe the classical kermack Mckendrick model for an epidemic. Discuss the spread of
infection according to this model and now if develops with time ,comment on the threshold
phenomenon and discuss the removal rate.
(b) Assuming ,deduce that if is small compared to then the number of

individuals who ultimately contact the disease is approximately .

2000

4(a) Describe the deterministic models with removal (SIR). Also find the condition on which the
infection (diseases) will ultimately die down. Discuss the asymptotic behavior of and

5(b) Explain the law of infection disease and solve for

and .

EPIDEMIC MODEL
 Discuss the Epidemic Model.
 Consider a spread of an infective disease under the assumption that

1. Permanent immunity occurs.

2. The incubation period is negligible.

The second assumption implies that an individual who contracts the disease becomes infective
immediately afterwards .Suppose that a small group of people having the disease is inserted
into a large population , which is capable of catching the disease.

In this case , we have the mainly three classes of individuals :-

1. The susceptible class(S)

2. The infective class (I)

3. The removal class(R)

The Susceptible Class: The susceptible class consists of those individuals who are not
infective but who are capable of catching the disease and becoming infective. At any time t,
this class is denoted by S(t).

The Infective Class: This class consists of those individuals who are capable of
transmitting the diseases of other.This class is denote by I(t).

The Removal class: The removal class consists of those individuals who had the disease
are dead or reovered or permanently immune or isolated until recovery. The class is denoted by
R(t) at any time t.

Epidemiological Model:There are various type of epidemiological models and we can

classify them into two classes:-

1. Disease without removal

2. Disease with removal

Disease without removal: These are the diseases which have the property that if a
person once infected by this disease will never be removal from the disease. That is the
individual always remain in the class-I or class-S.

SI-model: These models consider that , individual once infected will remain in the I class
always.

The schematic view: S I.

SIS Model:These models consider disease which have the property that individuals may
recover from the disease but not immunated. That is the removal individuals again enter the
susceptible class.

The schematic view: S I S.

Disease with removal: These type of models consider these disease which have the
property that, individuals once infected by these disease will be removal from the disease
through recovery or death.The individuals removed through recovery are immuned temporarily
or permanently.

One such model is SIR model. This model says, the changed in an individual happened in the ways that
he/she is always from a susceptible or an infective and then removal. The schemodetic view: S -> I -> R.

. Discuss the deterministic model with removal (SIR).

Or, Describe the classical Kermack-Mckendrick model for on epidemic.

The model consider the disease which have the property that, individuals once infected by these
disease will be removed from the disease through recovery or death. The individuals removed through
recovery are immuned temporarily or permanently. One such model is SIR model. The changed from a
susceptive to infective & then removed.

Assume that the spread of disease is governed by the following rules:

 i) The population remains at a fixed level N in the time interval.
ii) The susceptible population becomes infected on contracting disease. The rate of change
of the susceptible population is proportional to the numbers of susceptible & infective
person.
iii) The infective are transferred to the removed class. The rate of change of removed
population is proportional to the number of infectives .

The process S -> I ->R such models are often called SIR models. Let S(t),I(t), and R(t) denotes the number
of individuals in classes S , I and R respectively at time t. Then by the above assumptions , we obtain the
system of differential equations:

Where r and are positive constants. The constant r is called infection rate and is called the
removal rate. We obtain from first and third equation of (1)

Where is sometimes called relative removal rate, that is, the ratio of the rate at which

individuals are removed from the infected class and its reciprocal is called the infection’s contact rate,
Thus the epidemic model is ,
 Where , ,

This is classic Kermack-Mckendrich (1927) model.

0Theorem: If then goes monotonically to 0 & if then I increases as t increases &

then tends monotonically to 0.

Or, Find the conditions on which the infection will ultimately die down

Proof:

Consider the differential equations,

Where s the total population.

Initially s I and R
Now take then N

Now from (1) & (3) we get,

; where

Is called the removal rate i.e. the ratio of the rate at which individuals are removed from the infected
class to the rate at which they are add to the same class.

From (2),

The =r if

if

Thus for s

Hence is decreasing as long as that is as and so the infection dies

out, that is, no epidemic can occur.

From (1),

(4)
Integrating factor =

Multiplying both sides of (4) by then

Integrating , (k is constant)

Initially when t=0,

Hence,

; which shows that s(t) is always decreasing.

0So, if Then I(t) is monotonically decreasing to zero. Thus if a small group of infectives I0 is

inserted into a large group of susceptible. So with , then the infection will ultimately die down

and no epidemic cab occur and if . Then I(t) increase as long as and as s(t) decrease s,

so after some time I(t) decrease and tend to zero.

 Epidimic means that for some t>0 . We thus have a threshold phenomenon. If

. There is an epidemic while if there is not.

Show that Imax

Proof:

From (1) & (2)=>(2)

;where (5)

Thus the quantity is negative for s and positive for . Hence is a

decreasing function for s and increasing function of s for .

Initially .

Integrating both sides of (5) with respect to to and to , we get,

(6)

Initially

Take
Then from (6),

So for t>0 ,

If an epidemic exists we should like to know how serve it will be

. = -rSI+γI ---------------------------------(2)

From (2) the maximum I, Imax occurs

When =0

 -rSI + γI = 0
 S = γ/r = ρ

Then from (6),

Imax = N- ρ+ ρ ln(ρ/S0)

=I0 + S0- ρ+ ρ ln(ρ/S0)

For any initial values I0 and S0 > ρ, the phase trajectory starts with S > ρ and we see that I increase from I 0
and hence an epidemic ensures it may not necessarily be a several epidemic as is the case if I 0 is close to
Imax.It is also clear that if S0 < ρ then I decreases from I0 and no epidemic occurs.

Describe the asymptotic behavior of S(t), I(t) and R(t).

From the epidemic model we have,

= -rSI -------------------------------------------(1)

= rSI – γI -------------------------------------------(2)

= γI -------------------------------------------(3)

Where,
S(t) + I(t) + R(t) = N --------------------------------------(4)

Is the total population.

Initially S(0) – S0 > 0, I(0) – I0 > 0 and R(0) – R0 ≥ 0.

From (2) , = rSI – γI

= rI(S-γ/r)

=rI(S- ρ), ρ = γ/r

Then[ ]t=0 = r(S0 - ρ)I0 > 0 if S0 > ρ

<0 if S0 < ρ

Thus Iʹ(t) ≤ 0 for S(t) < ρ.

Hence I(t) is decreasing as long as S(t) < ρ that is I 0 > I(t) →0 as t→∞ and so infection dies out that is no
epidemic can occur.

From (1),

= -rSI

 = -rI dt

 = ∫-rI dt

 ln (S/S0)= -rIt

 S(t) = S0e-rIt -----------------------------------(5)

Which shows that S(t) always decreasing.

Therefore if S0 > p then I(t) increases as long as S(t) > ρ and as S(t) decreases ,so after some time I(t)
decreases and tends to zero.

That is, = I(∞) = 0.

Figure : I(t) veries t

From (4), S(t) is monotonically decreasing function and is also bounded below [S(t) > 0],we find,

= S(∞) exists.

Since from (3) , R(t) is monoyonically increasing function of t and is bounded above [R(t) ≤ N(t)]

So = R(∞) exists.

From (1) ÷ (3) =>

=-

 = - dR

 =
  ln S/S0 = R

 S = S0 e-R/ρ ≥ S0 e-N/ρ > 0

 0 < S(∞) ≤ N

0 < S(∞) < ρ. Since I(∞) = 0 then (4) implies that

R(∞) = N – S(∞).

From (5), S(∞) = S0 e-R(∞)/ρ = S0 e-( )

And so S(∞) is the positive root 0< Z < ρ of the transcendental equation,

So exp[- ]=Z

Therefore I(t) → I(∞) = 0, and S(t) → S(∞) > 0

And R(∞) = N – S(∞)

S(t)

S(∞) ………………………………………………

Figure : t veries S(t)

R(∞) ………………………………………………………………………………………………….
 t

Figure : t veries R(t)

Therem: Assuming ,deduce that if is small compared to . Then the

number of individuals who ultimately contact the disease is appromatly

Proof: From epidemic model we have

Were , the total population let and assume that is very

small to

Now from

/s were =

Inte grating I(s)=-s+ Ins+c

Initialy I( = + Ins+c

c= + In

Hence I(s)= -s+ Ins+ + In

= + In

Limiting t approaches infinity , we then have

I( + In

0= + In

0=0+ In as is very small compared to

 0= In

Since if
is small compared to

 0= In
then

 0= In

 0= [- - ( ………………………..]

 0=( [ Neglecting higter orders ]

 Now Solving for we have

 0=

=2( + )( + [ putting values]

=2 - 2

≈2 2(
)

Since is very small , hence 2

≈2(

That is , the number of individuals who ultimately contact the disease is approximately

2(

Disease without removal:

Disease the deterministic without removal (SI) and show that the infection will speed throughout
the population

Ans:
Disease without removal , there are the disease which have the property that if a person once
infected by the disease will never be removal from the disease . that is the individuals always
remains in the class-1 or in the class-s

SI model consider that , individual once infected will remains in the I class always . the schematic
view s→I

Let N be the initial number of susceptible in the population so that

S(t)+I(t)=N+1

S(0)= =N, I(0)= =1

Were Sand I denote the susceptible class and infected class at any time respectively .

Now due to infected ,the number susceptible disease and the number of infected persons increase
we assume that the rate of decrease of s(t). or the rate of increase of I(t) is proportional to the
product of the number of susceptible infective persons.

Therefore SI models becomes

S(0)= =N, I(0)= =1

But we have , S+I=N+1

I=(N+1-S)

Now

(N+1-S)

(N+1)
  =rdt

 =-rdt

Integrating ,

 [ =-rt

] =-rt

- =-(N+1)rt

ð =-(N+1)rt

ð =

ð … … … …(1)

Again,

ð
Then

Integrating,

With … … …(2)

Now taking limit we get,

And

Since

Which ultimatemately shows that all person will be infected.

SIS Model: These model consider disease which have the property that individuals may recover from the
disease but not immunelated. That is the removal individuals again enter into the susceptible class.

The schematic view: S

In this model a susceptible person can become infected at a rate proportional to SI and an infected
person can recover and become susceptible again at a rate

Now from (3),

Putting the value of

 ð

Integrating,

=e^kt/(r(e^kt-1)/k+I_0^(-1) ), k≠0
Again from (5) when k=0 then we get ,

ð dI/-

When t=0 , I(0)=

Then

So I(t) = )

Therefore,

Epidemic model with removal and migration :

We modify general deterministic model to allow the increase of susceptible at a constant rate . So
the model
Bcomes ,

Control of an epidemic model :

The infection person can be removed from the disease and a susceptible person can be made
immune by vaccination. If vaccination is performed at a rate then the model becomes,

Where v(t) is the number of vaccination persons at time t.