US Weekly Kickstart - Lifting S&P 500 EPS Estimates But Lowering Year-End 2022 Target To 4300 On Rate Risk and Growth Fears

byercr\home\Desktop\BCB_0-SA_MAIN\BCB_2020-NOV- 20T22_44_20Z2020-11-20T23_19_23Z.
pptx
20\REPOST-USKickstart\Kickstart2020-11-
13 May 2022 | 5:59PM EDT
US Weekly Kickstart
Lifting S&P 500 EPS estimates but lowering year-end 2022 target to 4300 on rate risk and growth fears
Although S&P 500 firms posted much better-than-expected 1Q EPS growth of 11%, investors have been mauled by a 18% near-bear market plunge
since the index peaked on January 3rd. We boost our 2022 EPS growth forecast to +8% (from +5) and maintain our 2023 growth estimate of 6%.
Our sales, margin, and EPS estimates remain below bottom-up consensus. We cut our year-end target to 4300 (from 4700) to reflect higher interest
For the exclusive use of BELLELIANG@HANGSENG.COM
rates and slower economic growth than we previously assumed. Our new baseline forecast assumes no recession and implies the P/E ends the
year unchanged at 17x. A recession would see the index fall by 11% to 3600 as the P/E drops to 15x. Focus on high vs. low margin growth stocks.
David J. Kostin
Performance Table of Contents (212) 902-6781 |
david.kostin@gs.com
The S&P 500 was down -5.2% this week. Consumer Staples was Markets and money flow 7
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
the best-performing sector (-1.1%) while Consumer Discretionary Market performance 8
Ben Snider
was the worst-performing sector (-8.4%). We expect the S&P 500 Sector performance 11 (212) 357-1744 |
will end 2022 at 4300 (+9.4%). Style and size 15 ben.snider@gs.com
Strategy baskets 16
S&P 500 earnings and valuation
Earnings, sales, and revisions 21 Ryan Hammond
Goldman Sachs Consensus (212) 902-5625 |
Valuations 22 ryan.hammond@gs.com
Portfolio Strategy Bottom-Up
Factors 24 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E Fund flows, fund performance, and short interest 25 Cormac Conners
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
EPS $226 $239 $230 $250 (212) 357-6308 |
Correlation, breadth, and dispersion 26
cormac.x.conners@gs.com
Growth 8% 6% 10 % 9% Economics 27 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Goldman Sachs macro forecasts 28
NTM 2023E NTM 2023E Lily Calcagnini
(212) 357-5913 |
P/E 17.1x 16.5x 16.8x 15.7x
lily.calcagnini@gs.com
Source: I/B/E/S, FirstCall, Goldman Sachs Investment Research
Jenny Ma
(212) 357-5775 |
jenny.ma@gs.com
Daniel Chavez
(212) 357-7657 |
daniel.chavez@gs.com
Need access to view our baskets on GS Marquee? Email us.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see
the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
byercr\home\Desktop\BCB_0-SA_MAIN\BCB_2020-NOV- 20T22_44_20Z2020-11-20T23_19_23Z.pptx
Goldman Sachs US Weekly Kickstart
Conversations we are having with clients: Revising our S&P 500 EPS estimates and target
The S&P 500 fell by 2% this week, the sixth consecutive week of price declines. yields. We assume real yields will end 2022 at 0.5% (vs. 0% previously).
Although year/year headline inflation apparently peaked last month, this week’s core Lower yield gap. We expect the gap between the S&P 500 EPS yield and real 10-year
CPI was above expectation and reflected an acceleration relative to last month. Low US Treasury yield will narrow modestly to 530 bp (vs. 560 bp today). This yield gap
liquidity has exacerbated price action. S&P 500 futures top-of-book depth now nearly would match the level experienced in April 2021 but remain above the average since
matches the lows reached in 2008 and 2020. 1990. We model the yield gap as a function of economic growth, policy uncertainty, the
The S&P 500 has dropped by 16% YTD, as lower valuation dominates higher size of the Fed balance sheet, and consumer confidence. By the end of the year, our
earnings. Decomposing the collapse: 24 pp of decline is attributable to higher real baseline assumes a slight improvement in growth expectations relative to the
rates, more than offsetting the 2 pp boost from a narrowing yield gap (ERP), and 7 pp pessimistic outlook currently priced by cyclical vs. defensive industries. Valuation will
from higher level of forward earnings. Real interest rates have risen by 134 bp YTD to benefit from reduced policy uncertainty and higher consumer confidence. These
0.3%. Valuations have moved in near lockstep with real rates. The cost of equity has positive dynamics should more than offset the headwind from tightening financial
risen by 92 bp YTD (Exhibit 1) and S&P 500 forward P/E has fallen by 24% to 17x. conditions and allow the earnings yield gap to compress.
We revise our forecasts for earnings, interest rates, and the yield gap. We lower Our forecast is that the P/E remains unchanged from today at 17x. Previously, we
our S&P 500 year-end 2022 price target to 4300 (from 4700). Our new price target assumed the low real rate environment would support a P/E of 20x, 10% below the
represents a 7% return from today. Our 3-month forecast equals 4000, with expected valuation at start of the year. But YTD the market has priced the equivalent of 8
gains likely coming later in the year. Much higher equity prices in the near-term would additional 25 bp Fed hikes and real rates have risen sharply. During the last 8 weeks
ease financial conditions and be antithetical to the Fed’s goal of slowing economic real rates have surged from -1.0% to +0.2%. Our revised outlook of lower growth and
growth. As we noted last week, a contraction in economic growth is priced in equities higher rates no longer supports meaningful P/E expansion. Our new P/E multiple
and our baseline forecast suggests the worst of the decline is likely behind us forecast ranks in the 70th historical percentile and is consistent with pre-pandemic
assuming a recession is averted. We assume as the year progresses that investors will multiples, but below the past cycle’s peak of 18x in 2018. In our baseline, the relative
gain confidence about decelerating inflation, the path of Fed tightening, and recession valuation of stocks vs. real rates would rank in the 46th percentile vs history.
risk, and equities will rise modestly driven by EPS growth (Exhibit 3). In one downside scenario, a recession would push the S&P 500 11% lower to
Higher earnings. 1Q earnings season was better-than-feared. Consensus expected 3600. Our economists assign a 35% probability of recession in the next two years.
+5% year/year growth in S&P 500 EPS, but firms realized +11%. Both sales and However, if by year-end the economy is poised to enter a recession in 2023, a
margins posted positive surprises. Analyst revisions to 2022 and 2023 have been combination of reduced EPS estimates and a wider yield gap would drive a lower index
slightly positive, mostly driven by Energy. We raise our 2022 S&P 500 top-down EPS level. Earnings typically fall by 13% from peak-to-trough during recessions. However,
growth forecast to +8% (vs. +5% previously). We maintain our 2023 EPS growth equity prices move ahead of earnings. We assume by year-end the current 2023 EPS
forecast of +6%. Our revised S&P 500 EPS estimates equal $226 and $239. Faster estimate of $250 would be cut by 7%, consistent with history. Our macro model implies
sales growth and better-than-feared Financials earnings are the primary drivers of our the yield gap widens to 700 bp and the P/E multiple narrows to 15x.
revision. Our net margin forecast remains unchanged. We expect margins will rise by
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
In another downside scenario, if the economy avoids recession but real rates
11 bp to 12.3% in 2022. However, excluding Energy, we forecast net profit margins will continue to march higher, a lower valuation multiple would push the S&P 500
contract by 22 bp as input cost pressures weigh on companies. See Exhibit 4. index down by 6% to 3800. If the Fed is forced to hike by more than our economists
Our sales, margin, and earnings forecasts remain below bottom-up consensus. expect and real rates rise to 1%, similar to the peak reached during the last cycle in
Our economists’ 2022 real US GDP growth forecast is below-consensus and China’s 2018, our macro model suggests that higher rates will more than offset the lower yield
zero COVID policy poses a clear downside risk to EPS growth. From a revenue gap. In this scenario, the forward P/E would equal 16x, the lowest level since 2020.
perspective, we expect the headwind from a stronger trade-weighted dollar will need to We highlight two price dislocations in equity markets today: (1) Dividends; and
be incorporated into analyst models. Investors have already started to reflect this risk; (2) High vs. low margin growth stocks. (1) The dividend futures market is pricing a
our domestic sales basket (GSTHAINT) has outperformed our international sales recession. The market implies DPS growth of -6% in 2023 and -1% in 2024. During the
basket (GSTHINTL) by 10 pp YTD. While quarterly net profit margins have slipped past 60 years, LTM DPS has never declined outside of recession. Even in 2020, S&P
modestly from their peak in 2Q 2021 to 12.1% in 1Q 2022, consensus expects an 500 DPS fell just -3% from peak to trough. Because healthy corporate balance sheets
expansion during in 2H 2022, which appears too optimistic in our view. However, we would be tapped and buyback programs would be cut before dividends would be
believe it will take time for analysts to trim their forecasts closer to our top-down reduced, dividend futures market pricing is too pessimistic. (2) Growth stocks have de-
estimate. Our S&P 500 valuation and index forecasts assume that market participants rated sharply YTD as financial conditions have tightened. However, growth stocks with
price the index at year-end 2022 based on the consensus 2023E estimate of $250. high margins currently trade at the same 5x EV/sales multiple as low margin peers. We
Higher interest rates. Our Rates strategists now expect the nominal 10-year US expect the multiples will diverge as investors prioritize profitability (GS High Growth
Treasury yield to rise to 3.3% at year-end 2022 (vs. 2.7% previously) driven by real Margin Pair Index: ticker GSPUHGMP).
13 May 2022 2
Charts we are watching: Changing cost of equity, EPS growth, and the trajectory of the S&P 500
Exhibit 1: GS Dividend Discount Model-implied ERP and cost of equity Exhibit 2: Change in the S&P 500 cost of equity components YTD
as of May 12, 2022 as of May 12, 2022; implied ERP and COE based on GS Dividend Discount Model
10% 200
9% DDM-implied
cost of equity 150 129 bp 132 bp
8% 7.6%
92 bp
7% 100
6% 50
5% 4.8% 3 bp
0
4% Implied
ERP
3% 2.8% -50 (40)bp
2% -100 Change since year-end 2021
1% US 10-year
Treasury yield -150
0% Real 10-yr Breakeven Nominal 10-yr Equity Risk Cost of Equity
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 UST yield inflation UST yield Premium
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: S&P 500 index closely follows the path of earnings Exhibit 4: Our S&P 500 EPS estimates remain below bottom-up consensus
as of May 12, 2022 as of May 12, 2022
5500 $260 Goldman Sachs Consensus

$239 $240 top-down bottom-up
5000
$226
2021 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
4500 $220
YE S&P 500 ex. Financials, Utilities, Real Estate

$200
4000 2022:
Sales Per Share $1310 $1457 $1520 $1477 $1548
4300 $180
3500
Year/Year growth 16 % 11 % 4% 13 % 5%
S&P 500 $160
3000
index level $140 Profit Margin 12.2% 12.3% 12.4% 12.4% 12.8%
2500 S&P 500
EPS $120 Year/Year growth 253 bp 11 bp 3 bp 22 bp 37 bp
2000
$100 Financials, Utilities, Real Estate $49 $46 $51 $46 $52
1500 $80 Year/Year growth 49 % (7)% 11 % (7)% 12 %
1000 $60
S&P 500 adjusted EPS $209 $226 $239 $230 $250
500 $40
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Year/Year growth 47 % 8% 6% 10 % 9%
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
13 May 2022 3
Charts we are watching: S&P 500 earnings, valuation, and index levels under three scenarios
Exhibit 5: S&P 500 sector-level 2022 and 2023 EPS estimates Exhibit 6: S&P 500 scenario analysis for year-end 2022
as of May 12, 2022 as of May 13, 2022
GS Top-Down Cons. Bottom-Up GS Portfolio Strategy Scenarios
Contribution EPS growth EPS growth Higher
2021A 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E Current Baseline Recession rates
Energy $9 $18 $16 91 % (7)% 105 % (12)% Consensus EPS
2022 $230 $230 $230 $230
Industrials 13 16 17 22 8 33 19
2023 250 250 233 250
Materials 7 8 8 16 (5) 19 (6)
Consensus EPS growth
Real Estate 5 6 6 15 7 15 7
2022 10 % 10 % 10 % 10 %
Consumer Discretionary 15 17 19 12 11 16 25 2023 9 9 1 9
Information Technology 47 50 55 8 9 8 12
Real 10-year UST yield 0.2 % 0.5 % (0.5)% 1.0 %
Health Care 35 37 37 6 (0) 7 (1) Yield gap 563 bp 530 bp 700 bp 510 bp
Utilities 6 6 6 5 3 5 4 Percent rank since 1990 34% 46% 9% 55%
Consumer Staples 12 12 13 3 3 4 8 Implied forward P/E 17 x 17 x 15 x 16 x
Comm Services 23 22 24 (3) 10 (3) 14 Percent rank since 1990 69% 70% 46% 59%
Financials 39 34 39 (11) 13 (11) 15
S&P 500 price at YE 2022 4024 4300 3600 3800
S&P 500 EPS $209 $226 $239 8% 6% 10 % 9% Change from current 7% (11)% (6)%
Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 7: The relative valuation of equities vs. real rates Exhibit 8: The absolute valuation of equities
as of May 13, 2022 as of May 13, 2022
1000 bp 26 x
900 bp
24 x
800 bp
S&P 500 NTM P/E
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
22 x
700 bp
20 x
600 bp
500 bp 18 x
YE
2022 YE
400 bp 16 x 2022
300 bp
14 x
200 bp S&P 500 NTM EPS yield gap
12 x
100 bp
vs. real 10-year UST yield
10 x
0 bp
8x
(100)bp
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
13 May 2022 4
Stocks with high growth and high margins

Exhibit 5: Russell 3000 stocks greater than $2 billion in market cap with 2023E sales growth >15% and 2023E net margin >20%
as of May 12, 2022; excludes Biotechnology and Financials
Consensus 2023
Market YTD Sales Profit EV/
Company Ticker Industry group cap (bn) return growth margin FY2 sales
Whiting Petroleum Corporation WLL Energy $3 13 % 20 % 56 % 2x
MP Materials Corp MP Materials 6 (21) 38 50 8
Mastercard Incorporated MA Software & Services 317 (9) 17 47 12
Oasis Petroleum Inc OAS Energy 3 8 24 45 1
Olaplex Holdings, Inc. OLPX Household & Personal Products 8 (58) 26 45 7
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. NOG Energy 2 28 31 44 1
Comstock Resources, Inc. CRK Energy 3 83 24 41 3
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA Semiconductors 441 (40) 17 38 10

Marvell Technology, Inc. MRVL Semiconductors 47 (37) 20 35 6
Micron Technology, Inc. MU Semiconductors 77 (26) 16 35 2
Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. HRMY Pharma Biotech & Life Sciences 2 (18) 41 34 3
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. MPWR Semiconductors 19 (16) 19 33 9
Activision Blizzard, Inc. ATVI Media & Entertainment 60 16 21 32 5
Veeva Systems Inc VEEV Health Care Equipment & Services 25 (36) 17 31 9
SiTime Corporation SITM Semiconductors 4 (41) 23 30 7
EQT Corporation EQT Energy 14 69 21 29 2
Intuit Inc. INTU Software & Services 105 (42) 16 28 7
Livent Corporation LTHM Materials 4 (2) 24 28 4
Murphy Oil Corporation MUR Energy 5 26 16 28 2
Teradyne, Inc. TER Semiconductors 17 (37) 21 26 4
Meta Platforms Inc. FB Media & Entertainment 535 (41) 16 26 3
Pacira Biosciences, Inc. PCRX Pharma Biotech & Life Sciences 3 0 16 25 4
Alphabet Inc. GOOGL Media & Entertainment 1,507 (21) 15 25 4
Qualys, Inc. QLYS Software & Services 5 (15) 17 25 7
Paycom Software, Inc. PAYC Software & Services 17 (32) 23 25 7
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
Vicor Corporation VICR Capital Goods 3 (54) 40 24 4
Booking Holdings Inc. BKNG Consumer Services 83 (15) 16 24 4
Albemarle Corporation ALB Materials 26 (5) 17 24 5
Certara, Inc. CERT Health Care Equipment & Services 3 (39) 16 24 6
Air Lease Corporation AL Capital Goods 4 (18) 17 23 7
Match Group, Inc. MTCH Media & Entertainment 20 (47) 17 23 6
Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR Software & Services 15 (60) 28 22 4
Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN Consumer Services 7 (21) 33 21 4
Gentex Corporation GNTX Automobiles & Components 7 (17) 17 21 3
ServiceNow, Inc. NOW Software & Services 87 (33) 25 21 9
Ambarella, Inc. AMBA Semiconductors 3 (66) 22 20 5
Fortinet, Inc. FTNT Software & Services 42 (27) 21 20 7
Screen median $14 (21)% 20 % 28 % 5x
Median Russell 3000 stock with market cap over $2 billion 7 (17) 6 11 2
Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
13 May 2022 5
Stocks with high growth and low margins

Exhibit 5: Russell 3000 stocks greater than $2 billion in market cap with 2023E sales growth >20% and 2023E net margin <5%
as of May 12, 2022; excludes Biotechnology and Financials
Consensus Consensus 2023

Market YTD 2023 sales Profit Net FY2 EV/
Company Ticker Industry group cap (bn) return growth margin inc. (mn) sales
Snowflake, Inc. SNOW Software & Services $45 (58)% 56 % (24)% ($721) 11 x
Lyft, Inc. LYFT Transportation 7 (56) 25 (8) (427) 1
DoorDash, Inc. DASH Retailing 24 (54) 22 (4) (325) 3
Bill.com Holdings, Inc. BILL Software & Services 11 (57) 37 (29) (292) 8
Smartsheet, Inc. SMAR Software & Services 5 (49) 33 (25) (248) 4
Plug Power Inc. PLUG Capital Goods 9 (44) 50 (12) (166) 4
Roku, Inc. ROKU Media & Entertainment 11 (63) 30 (3) (148) 2
Uber Technologies, Inc. UBER Transportation 46 (44) 21 (0) (129) 1
Intra-Cellular Therapies, Inc. ITCI Pharma Biotech & Life Sciences 5 2 113 (24) (111) 7
Okta, Inc. OKTA Software & Services 14 (59) 34 (4) (104) 5
Procore Technologies Inc PCOR Software & Services 6 (45) 24 (10) (84) 6
Mandiant, Inc. MNDT Software & Services 5 25 23 (7) (50) 6
10x Genomics Inc TXG Pharma Biotech & Life Sciences 5 (70) 34 (4) (34) 5
Wolfspeed Inc WOLF Semiconductors 9 (36) 43 (2) (24) 6
Anaplan, Inc. PLAN Software & Services 10 41 24 (1) (9) 9
SailPoint Technologies Holdings, Inc. SAIL Software & Services 6 29 21 (1) (5) 8
Elastic NV ESTC Software & Services 5 (53) 26 0 5 4
MongoDB, Inc. MDB Software & Services 17 (53) 31 1 10 9
Unity Software, Inc. U Software & Services 14 (66) 29 1 13 7
Avalara Inc AVLR Software & Services 7 (42) 22 2 18 5
Cloudflare Inc NET Software & Services 19 (57) 34 2 30 13
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
Twilio, Inc. TWLO Software & Services 18 (63) 29 1 35 2
agilon health inc AGL Health Care Equipment & Services 6 (42) 44 1 42 1
Coupa Software, Inc. COUP Software & Services 5 (57) 21 4 44 6
Splunk Inc. SPLK Software & Services 15 (18) 22 3 132 4
Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN Consumer Services 7 (28) 31 5 298 2
Block Inc SQ Software & Services 49 (48) 21 5 994 2
Screen median $9 (49)% 29 % (1)% ($24) 5x

Median Russell 3000 stock with market cap over $2 billion 7 (17) 6 11 510 2
Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
13 May 2022 6
Markets and Money Flow

S&P 500 level and EPS 10-yr. Treasury Yields Fed Funds Target Rate
5000 340 5%
4.9 %
S&P 500 320 US 10-Year Fed Funds
4750 Price GS
4.4 %
Treasury Yield Target Rate
300 forecast 4% GS
4500 2022E 3.9 % forecast
S&P 500 adjusted EPS

2022E:
4300 280 2023E: 2024E: 2024E:
3.30%
3.4 % 3.15% 3.15% 3.1%
S&P 500 Price
4250
260 3%
2.9 % Current: Futures
4000 Current 240 2.82%
3930 2023E Futures market
2.4 %
3750 2022E $239 220 market 2%

$226 1.9 %
200
3500 2021A
$209 Goldman Sachs 180 1.4 % 1%
3250 Adjusted
EPS Forecast 160 0.9 %
2020A
$142
3000 140 0.4 % 0%
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
2028
2032
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-24
Sentiment Indicator Rotation Index Volatility
3.0 (1.4)
Risk on; favors EQUITY flows VIX
Rotation Index
2.0 (1.0) 40
(4-wk moving avg)
SI>1.0 = STRETCHED positioning
Standard deviations
(0.6)
1.0
32
Z-Score
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
(0.2) 30
0.0
(1.5)<SI<(1.0) = LIGHT positioning 0.2
(1.0)
20
SI<(1.5) = EXTREMELY LIGHT 0.6
6-month
(2.0) trend
(2.5) 1.0
Risk off; favors BOND flows
(3.0) 10
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jul-22
Dec-21
Apr-21
Oct-21
Apr-22
Jun-21
Jun-22
Mar-21
Mar-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-21
Jun-22
Mar-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
As of December 17, 2021
Note: Sentiment Indicator measures stock positioning across retail, institutional, and Note: Rotation Index plots the first principal component of weekly reallocation activity across equity and
foreign investors versus the past 12 months. Readings below -1.0 or above +1.0 indicate debt mutual fund and ETF categories as a measure of retail risk appetite.
extreme positions that are significant in predicting future returns. As of Aug. 20, 2021.
Source: Haver, EPFR, FactSet, CFTC, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Pricing in this report as of May 12, 2022, unless otherwise indicated.

13 May 2022 7
Market Performance: YTD absolute and risk-adjusted returns

Total Return Risk Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio)
Crude Oil (S&P GSCI) 50 ENERGY 2.1
ENERGY 42 Crude Oil (S&P GSCI) 1.5
UTILITIES (1) Gold (0.0)
Gold (1) UTILITIES (0.1)
CONSUMER STAPLES (1) CONSUMER STAPLES (0.1)
$/Euro (8) MATERIALS (0.7)
Russell 1000 Value (9) HEALTH CARE (0.8)
HEALTH CARE (9) Russell 1000 Value (0.8)
MATERIALS (10) Bitcoin (0.9)
HY Credit (10) FINANCIALS (1.0)
10-year US Treasury (10) INDUSTRIALS (1.1)
IG Credit (12) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (1.2)
INDUSTRIALS (13) S&P 500 (1.2)
FINANCIALS (15) REAL ESTATE (1.3)
S&P 500 (17) Nasdaq 100 (1.3)
MSCI Developed Markets (18) Russell 2000 (1.3)
REAL ESTATE (18) CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (1.4)
MSCI Emerging Markets (19) Russell 1000 Growth (1.4)
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
Russell 2000 (22) COMM SERVICES (1.4)
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (25) MSCI Emerging Markets (1.4)
Russell 1000 Growth (26) MSCI Developed Markets (1.5)
Nasdaq 100 (27) $/Euro (1.6)
COMM SERVICES (27) 10-year US Treasury (1.8)
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (29) IG Credit (2.8)
Bitcoin (37) HY Credit (3.0)
(80) (60) (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 80 (5.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Note: Crude Oil (S&P GSCI) return represents S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index total return. Spot change equals 38% YTD.
Source: Haver, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
13 May 2022 8
Sector Baskets – Performance Relative to S&P 500

Cyclicals Defensives Domestic Global
106 102 106 102
Bloomberg <ticker> GSSBDEFS GSSBDOMS GSSBGLBL
GSSBCYCL
104 104 101

100
102 102 100
98
100 100 99
96
98 98 98
96 94 96 97
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Jun-22
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Domestic Cyclicals Global Cyclicals Domestic Defensives Global Defensives
120 110 104 102
GSSBDCYC GSSBGCYC GSSBDDEF GSSBGDEF
Banks
Insurance 102
100
115 Diversified Financials
Transportation 105
Retailing 100
98
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
110
98
100 96
96
105
Autos
Capital Goods 94
Energy 94
95 Food Retailing
Materials Real Estate Software & Services
100 Tech Hardware Telecom 92 Consumer Services
Semiconductors 92 Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Utilities
Consumer Durables Health Care Equip. Household & Personal Products
Media Commercial Services Pharmaceuticals
95 90 90 90
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Jun-22
Jun-22
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
13 May 2022 9
Sector Baskets Performance
120
Cyclicals vs. Defensives Domestic vs. Global
115
CYCLICALS DOMESTIC
115 outperforming outperforming
110
110
105 105
100
100
95
95
90
DEFENSIVES
outperforming GLOBAL
85 outperforming
90
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Performance and fundamentals of our sector baskets
Bloomberg % of
Ticker # of S&P 500 Non-US Earnings Growth Sales Growth NTM LTM Div Total Return
Basket <GSSBXXXX> Stocks Cap Beta Sales 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E P/E P/B Yield 1 Wk 1 Mo 3 Mo LTM YTD
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
Defensives DEFS 255 57 % 0.9 22% 5% 11 % 7% 6% 19.3x 5.1x 1.5 % (4.3)% (11)% (9)% 1% (17)%
Cyclicals CYCL 245 43 1.1 36 14 8 17 3 14.3 3.1 1.8 (6.5) (11) (13) (5) (17)
Domestic DOMS 216 34 % 0.9 14% (2)% 14 % 7% 5% 16.3x 2.6x 1.9 % (4.8)% (12)% (12)% (6)% (16)%
Global GLBL 284 66 1.0 45 17 7 15 4 17.1 5.5 1.5 (5.5) (10) (10) 1 (17)
Domestic Cyclicals DCYC 91 14 % 1.0 19% (3)% 16 % 20 % 5% 12.8x 1.7x 2.0 % (5.3)% (10)% (16)% (8)% (15)%
Global Defensives GDEF 130 36 0.9 42 9 10 11 7 19.0 6.2 1.4 (4.2) (9) (9) 4 (16)
Domestic Defensives DDEF 125 21 0.8 12 (1) 13 5 5 19.8 3.9 1.8 (4.5) (13) (9) (4) (16)
Global Cyclicals GCYC 154 30 1.1 47 26 4 17 3 15.2 4.9 1.6 (7.0) (11) (11) (3) (19)
Services-providing SERV 259 52 % 1.0 20% 2% 17 % 9% 7% 17.5x 3.4x 1.4 % (5.5)% (12)% (14)% (10)% (21)%
Goods-producing GOOD 241 48 0.9 42 17 2 14 2 16.1 4.9 1.9 (5.0) (9) (7) 8 (12)
S&P 500 500 100 % 1.0 28% 10 % 9% 13 % 5% 16.8x 4.0x 1.6 % (5.2)% (11)% (11)% (2)% (17)%
13 May 2022 10
Sectors – Relative Performance vs. S&P 500

Recommended Sector Positioning
Consumer Discretionary Financials Information Technology Goldm an S&P
105 125 110 Sachs 500
Sectors Weighting Wgt YTD
100 120 Energy 5% 42 %
105 Health Care Overw eight 15 (9)
Info Tech 27 (25)
95 115
Materials 3 (10)
90 110 100 Industrials 8 (13)
Financials 11 (15)
Real Estate 3 (18)
85 105 Neutral
Cons. Services 2 (21)
95
Retailing 6 (29)
80 100 Media & Ent. 8 (30)
Cons. Durables 1 (32)
75 95 90
Telecom Svcs. 1 1
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Utilities 3 (1)
Underw eight
Consumer Staples 7 (1)
Autos & Comp. 2 (33)
S&P 500 100% (17)%
Industrials Energy Materials Real Estate

110 240 115 130
220 125
110
105 200 120
180 105 115

100 160 110
100 105
140
95 120 100
95
100 95
90 80 90 90
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-20
Dec-21
Jun-22
Sep-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
Consumer Staples Health Care Communication Services Utilities
120 110 115 120
110
110 105 105 110

100
95
100 100 100
90
85
90 95 90
80
75
80 90 70 80
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
13 May 2022 11
Industry Groups – Relative Performance vs. S&P 500 and 3 largest stocks
Automobiles & Components Consumer Durables & Apparel Consumer Services Retailing
150 110 110 110
TSLA 82% MCD 29% AMZN 48%
140 105 105 BKNG 14% 105
GM 7% HD 16%
F 7% 100 SBUX 13% 100 LOW 7%
130 100
95
120 95
90 95
110 90
85 90
100 85
80
85
90 80
75 NKE 47%
80 DHI 7% 80 75
70
LEN 7%
70 65 75 70
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Dec-21
Jun-22
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Dec-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-21
Mar-22
Banks Diversified Financials Insurance Semiconductors

130 120 130
130 NVDA 23%
125
120 AVGO 13%
120 INTC 10%
110 120
110 115
110
100 110
105
100
100
90 JPM 28% BRK.B 34% CB 12% 100
BAC 20% SPGI 7% 95 MMC 11%
WFC 13% MS 7% PGR 9%
80 90 90 90
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Software & Services Technology Hardware & Equipment Health Care Equipment & Services Pharma, Biotech, & Life Sciences
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
110 115 115 120
MSFT 45% AAPL 79% UNH 22% JNJ 17%
V 8% 110 CSCO 7% 110 ABT 9% 115 PFE 10%
105 MA 7% APH 1% MDT 7% ABBV 10%
110
105 105
100 105
100 100
95 100
95 95
95
90 90 90 90
85 85 85 85
Jul-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Source: FactSet, compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
13 May 2022 12
Industry Groups – Relative Performance vs. S&P 500 and 3 largest stocks (continued)
Capital Goods Commercial & Professional Services Transportation Energy
110 110 115 240
RTX 8%
110 220
HON 7% 105
105
CAT 6% 200
105
100 180
100
100
95 160
95 95
140
90
90 120
90 UNP 24% XOM 24%
WM 24%
85 85 UPS 21% 100 CVX 21%
CTAS 13%
CSX 12% COP 9%
85 VRSK 11% 80
80 80
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Materials Food & Staples Retailing Food Beverage & Tobacco Household & Personal Products
120 120 120 110
LIN 17% COST 40% PG 64%
115 SHW 7% 115 WMT 39% 105 CL 11%
NEM 6% SYY 8% 110 EL 9%
110 100
110
105 95
105 100
100 90
100
95 85
90 KO 21%
95 90 PEP 19% 80
PM 13%
90 85 80 75
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Dec-20
Jun-22
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Real Estate Media & Entertainment Telecommunication Services Utilities
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
130 120 110 125
115 VZ 47% NEE 14%
120
100 T 33% DUK 8%
110 17% 115
120 TMUS SO 8%
105
90 110
100
105
110 95 80
100
90
85 70 95
100 AMT 11% 80 90
GOOGL 51%
PLD 10% FB 17% 60
8% 75 85
CCI DIS 7%
90 70 50 80
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Mar-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Source: FactSet, compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
13 May 2022 13
S&P 500 Sector and Industry Group Performance

Weight 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months Last 12 Months YTD
S&P 500 100 % (5.2)% (10.5)% (11)% (2)% (17)%
Consumer Staples 7% (1.1)% (3.3)% 1% 14 % (1)% Top quartile
Utilities 3 (1.4) (7.4) 6 13 (1) Bottom quartile
S Health Care 15 (2.2) (8.2) (2) 6 (9)

E Energy 5 (3.1) (0.4) 12 57 42
C Communication Services 9 (3.9) (13.3) (17) (20) (27)
T Industrials 8 (4.4) (7.2) (7) (8) (13)
O Materials 3 (5.2) (7.7) (3) (3) (10)
R Financials 11 (5.5) (11.4) (17) (8) (15)

Real Estate 3 (7.2) (14.0) (7) 5 (18)
Information Technology 27 (7.4) (11.5) (15) 0 (25)
Consumer Discretionary 11 (8.4) (18.1) (20) (14) (29) Region Cycle
Food Beverage & Tobacco 4% (0.0)% (0.4)% 4% 15 % 6% Global Defensives
Telecommunication Services 1 (0.8) (5.5) (2) (14) 1 Domestic Defensives
Household & Personal Products 2 (0.8) (3.4) (4) 7 (10) Global Defensives
Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology & Life Sciences 8 (0.9) (5.9) 1 9 (7) Global Defensives
Utilities 3 (1.4) (7.4) 6 13 (1) Domestic Defensives
I Energy 5 (3.1) (0.4) 12 57 42 Global Cyclicals
N Transportation 2 (3.6) (3.7) (8) (9) (13) Domestic Cyclicals
D Insurance 2 (3.8) (9.1) (3) 9 (1) Domestic Cyclicals
U Food & Staples Retailing 2 (3.9) (9.2) 2 17 (5) Domestic Defensives
S Health Care Equipment & Services 6 (4.0) (11.1) (6) 3 (12) Domestic Defensives
T Commercial & Professional Services 1 (4.3) (9.3) (0) 4 (15) Domestic Cyclicals
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
R Media & Entertainment 8 (4.4) (14.5) (19) (21) (30) Global Defensives
Y Capital Goods 5 (4.6) (8.0) (8) (9) (12) Global Cyclicals
Materials 3 (5.2) (7.7) (3) (3) (10) Global Cyclicals
G Retailing 6 (5.7) (19.2) (21) (20) (29) Domestic Defensives
R Diversified Financials 5 (5.8) (13.3) (16) (6) (16) Domestic Cyclicals
O Banks 4 (6.2) (10.1) (25) (18) (20) Domestic Cyclicals
U Software & Services 13 (7.1) (10.8) (15) (7) (25) Global Defensives
P Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment 5 (7.1) (10.3) (17) 5 (30) Global Cyclicals
Consumer Durables & Apparel 1 (7.2) (9.4) (20) (23) (32) Global Cyclicals
Real Estate 3 (7.2) (14.0) (7) 5 (18) Domestic Defensives
Consumer Services 2 (7.3) (9.5) (17) (12) (21) Global Defensives
Technology Hardware & Equipment 8 (8.0) (13.4) (15) 12 (20) Global Cyclicals
Automobiles & Components 2 (15.9) (24.4) (18) 12 (33) Global Cyclicals
13 May 2022 14
Style and Size

Growth vs. Value Large-cap vs. Small-cap
115 120
Growth outperforming Russell 1000 outperforming
110
115
105
110
100
95 105
90 100
85
95
80
90
75
Value outperforming Russell 2000 outperforming
70 85
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Sectors: Russell 1000 Growth vs. Value Sectors: Russell 1000 vs. Russell 2000
1-Week (% Return) YTD (% Return) 1-Week (% Return) YTD (% Return)
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
Russell Sector Growth Value ∆ (bps) Growth Value ∆ (bps) Russell Sector R1000 R2000 ∆ (bps) R1000 R2000 ∆ (bps)
Utilities 1 (2) 265 (5) (2) (341) Energy (4) (12) 793 38 21 1,650
Materials (6) (6) 15 (20) (1) (1,856) Health Care (3) (10) 683 (11) (37) 2,508
Consumer Staples (0) (0) (5) 2 2 (8) Consumer Staples (0) (2) 185 2 (15) 1,755
Industrials (6) (5) (69) (20) (15) (466) Technology (7) (9) 157 (27) (32) 499
Financials (6) (5) (107) (24) (14) (966) Materials (6) (8) 114 (5) (15) 926
Cons Discretionary (9) (6) (298) (33) (19) (1,415) Industrials (6) (6) 43 (18) (19) 162
Technology (8) (5) (320) (28) (21) (659) Cons Discretionary (8) (8) (33) (29) (26) (244)
Health Care (5) (2) (335) (21) (6) (1,482) Utilities (2) (1) (45) (2) (5) 320
Energy (11) (3) (727) 11 40 (2,969) Financials (5) (4) (107) (15) (18) 242
Index (7) (4) (348) (26) (9) (1,720) Index (5) (7) 151 (18) (22) 409
13 May 2022 15
US Portfolio Strategy Baskets are available on GS Marquee platform

YTD Performance Ticker 1 wk
Total Return
1 mo YTD
P/E
NTM
EV/Sales
NTM
Div
Yield
Dual Beta GSTHBETA (10.3)% (14)% (23)% 16x 3.2x 0.0 %
Macroeconomic
Dividend Growth (7)
Interest Rate Sensitive GSTHUSTY (7.0) (8) (10) 12 2.0 1.1
Interest Rate Sensitive (10)
High Tax GSTHHTAX (5.4) (11) (14) 15 2.4 1.4
Low Hedge Fund Concentration (10)
Low Tax GSTHLTAX (5.7) (10) (18) 17 3.5 0.8
Total Cash Return to Shareholders (10)
High Labor Cost GSTHHLAB (3.6) (8) (11) 17 2.6 1.4
High Labor Cost (11)
Low Labor Cost GSTHLLAB (5.4) (10) (12) 14 1.8 1.3
Weak Balance Sheet (11)
Geographic
Short Duration (11) Domestic Sales GSTHAINT (5.3)% (10)% (11)% 16x 2.9x 1.3 %
Sales
Capex and R&D (11) International Sales GSTHINTL (5.2) (8) (21) 19 3.6 1.3
High Sharpe Ratio (11) BRICs Sales GSTHBRIC (5.9) (9) (21) 15 3.2 1.1
Debt Reducers (11) Western Europe Sales GSTHWEUR (6.4) (10) (21) 15 2.8 0.7
Domestic Sales (11) High Revenue Growth GSTHREVG (9.7)% (14)% (23)% 24x 4.0x 0.0 %
Low Labor Cost (12) High Operating Leverage GSTHOPHI (6.0) (11) (14) 19 3.1 0.3
Low Liquidity (13) Low Operating Leverage GSTHOPLO (5.0) (9) (19) 15 3.5 1.3
Fundamental
Mutual Fund Overweight Positions (13) Stable Growers GSTHSTGR (3.2) (9) (14) 19 4.0 1.7
Debt Issuers (14) ROE Growth GSTHGROE (5.9) (9) (15) 18 3.2 1.1
Hedge Fund Very Important Shorts (14) High Quality Stock GSTHQUAL (4.1) (11) (17) 24 3.9 1.0
Buyback (14) Long Duration GSTHLDUR (14.4) (29) (41) 35 3.7 0.0
High Tax (14) Short Duration GSTHSDUR (5.3) (6) (11) 8 1.5 1.5
Stable Growers (14) Strong Balance Sheet GSTHSBAL (6.8) (12) (24) 27 5.9 0.2
High Operating Leverage (14) Weak Balance Sheet GSTHWBAL (6.3) (9) (11) 14 2.7 0.8
ROE Growth (15)
Capex and R&D GSTHCAPX (5.4)% (8)% (11)% 10x 2.4x 2.0 %
High Hedge Fund Concentration (16)
Total Cash Return to Shareholders GSTHCASH (3.9) (7) (10) 12 2.0 2.1
Uses of Cash
Mutual Fund Underweight Positions (17)
Buyback GSTHREPO (4.5) (9) (14) 13 2.2 1.7
S&P 500 (17)
Dividend Growth GSTHDIVG (2.1) (4) (7) 11 2.7 3.3
High Quality Stock (17)
High Growth Investment Ratio GSTHHGIR (6.9) (10) (19) 20 3.8 0.4
Low Tax (18)
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
Debt Issuers GSTHDISS (5.8) (9) (14) 20 3.5 0.8
High Liquidity (18)
Debt Reducers GSTHDRED (4.3) (6) (11) 12 2.2 2.3
Low Operating Leverage (19)
Liquidity
High Growth Investment Ratio (19) High Sharpe Ratio GSTHSHRP (6.1)% (8)% (11)% 14x 3.0x 0.8 %
Risk &
BRICs Sales (21) High Liquidity GSTHHLIQ (4.9) (11) (18) 18 3.1 1.7
Western Europe Sales (21) Low Liquidity GSTHLLIQ (7.9) (14) (13) 19 2.6 0.0
International Sales (21)
Hedge Fund "VIP" List GSTHHVIP (8.2)% (16)% (27)% 21x 3.2x 0.0 %
Hedge Funds &
Dual Beta (23)

Mutual Funds
Hedge Fund Very Important Shorts GSTHVISP (3.2) (8) (14) 13 2.9 2.6
High Revenue Growth (23)
High Hedge Fund Concentration GSTHHFHI (8.4) (14) (16) 11 2.3 0.2
Strong Balance Sheet (24)
Low Hedge Fund Concentration GSTHHFSL (4.7) (9) (10) 20 4.0 2.7
Hedge Fund "VIP" List (27)
Mutual Fund Overweight Positions GSTHMFOW (5.1) (11) (13) 15 3.5 1.4
Long Duration (41)
Mutual Fund Underweight Positions GSTHMFUW (5.0)
( ) (10)
( ) (17)
( ) 21 2.9 2.2
(50) (45) (40) (35) (30) (25) (20) (15) (10) (5) 0
S&P 500 Median 19 3.6 1.8
For details and constituents of our baskets see Anatomy of our US Portfolio Strategy Thematic and Sector Baskets, March 30, 2022
13 May 2022 16
US Portfolio Strategy Baskets – Relative performance vs. S&P 500

Macroeconomics Geographic Sales
Dual Beta Interest Rate Sensitive US Sales International Sales
115 125 114 106
Bloomberg <ticker> GSTHUSTY GSTHAINT GSTHINTL
GSTHBETA 112 104
120
110
110 102
115 108 100

105
106 98
110
104 96
100
105 102 94
100 92
95
100
98 90
90 95 96 88
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Jun-22
Jun-22
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Low vs. High Labor Cost High vs. Low Tax Rate BRICs Sales Western Europe Sales
112 120 108 114
GSTHLLAB/ GSTHHTAX/ GSTHBRIC GSTHWEUR
110 112
GSTHHLAB 118 GSTHLTAX 106
108 110
116
106 104
108
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
114
104
102 106
112
102
104
100 110 100
102
98 108 98
100
96
106
96 98
94
104
96
92 94
102 94
90
92
88 100 92
86 98 90 90
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Sep-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
13 May 2022 17
US Portfolio Strategy Baskets – Relative performance vs. S&P 500 (continued)

Fundamentals
High vs. Low Long vs. Short
Revenue Growth Operating Leverage ROE Growth Duration
110 110 120
104 Bloomberg <ticker> GSTHOPHI/ GSTHGROE GSTHLDUR/
GSTHREVG 108 GSTHOPLO GSTHSDUR
102 110
100 106 105

100
98 104
96 90
102 100
94
100 80
92
98 95
70
90
96
88 60
94 90
86
50
84 92
82 90 85 40
Dec-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Mar-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Sep-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
High Quality Strong vs. Weak Balance Sheet High vs. Low Adjusted FCF Stable Growers
102 110 135 104
GSTHQUAL GSTHSBAL/ GSTHHACF/ GSTHSTGR
101 GSTHWBAL GSTHLACF 103
105 130
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
102
100
100 125
101
99
95 120 100
98 99
90 115
97 98
85 110 97
96
80 96
95 105
95
94 75 100
94
93 70 95 93
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Sep-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Dec-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Mar-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Sep-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
13 May 2022 18

Uses of Cash Risk & Liquidity
Capex and R&D High Growth Investment Ratio Debt Reducers vs. Issuers High Sharpe Ratio
120 106 116 110
Bloomberg <ticker> GSTHHGIR GSTHDRED/ GSTHSHRP
GSTHCAPX 114 GSTHDISS
115 104
112
110
110 102 105
108
105 100 106
104
100 98 100
102
100
95 96
98
90 94 96 95
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Jun-22
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Mar-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Total Cash Return Buybacks Dividend Growth Low vs. High Liquidity
116 116 118 150
GSTHCASH GSTHREPO GSTHDIVG GSTHLLIQ/
114 114 116 GSTHHLIQ
140
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
114
112 112
112
110 110 130
110
108 108
108 120
106 106
106
104 104 110
104
102 102
102
100
100 100 100
98 98 98 90
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Jun-22
Dec-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Sep-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Mar-21
Mar-22
13 May 2022 19

Hedge Fund Ownership Mutual Fund Ownership
Hedge Fund VIP Short Positions Overweight Positions Underweight Positions
115 103 110 102
Bloomberg <ticker> GSTHVISP GSTHMFOW GSTHMFUW
102
110 GSTHHVIP
101
101
105
100
100
100 99 105
98 99
95
97
90 98
96
85 95 100
97
94
80
93
96
75
92
70 91 95 95
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Jun-22
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
High Concentration Low Concentration
125 110
GSTHHFHI GSTHHFSL
108
120
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
106
115
104
110
102
105
100
100
98
95 96
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
13 May 2022 20
S&P 500 Earnings, Sales and Revisions

GS Top-Down EPS & Consensus Bottom-Up EPS Earnings & Sales Revisions (Consensus)
Adjusted EPS Adjusted EPS EPS REVISIONS SALES REVISIONS
GS Top-Down Consensus Bottom-Up 1 month 3 month 1 month 3 month
Contribution EPS growth Contribution EPS growth 22E 23E 22E 23E 22E 23E 22E 23E
2021A 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E
Energy 14.0 % 14.9 % 41.8 % 33.4 % 9.2 % 5.9 % 19.2 % 14.0 %
Information Technology $47 $50 $55 8% 9% $51 $57 8% 12 %
Materials 7.4 4.6 12.5 10.2 4.6 3.5 7.0 6.2
Health Care 35 37 37 6 (0) 37 37 7 (1)
Real Estate 2.3 0.5 3.0 1.3 NM NM NM NM
Financials 39 34 39 (11) 13 34 39 (11) 15
Industrials 1.5 0.3 (0.4) (0.1) 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.8
Communication Services 23 22 24 (3) 10 22 25 (3) 14
Financials 1.0 0.1 (0.8) 1.6 NM NM NM NM
Consumer Discretionary 15 17 19 12 11 18 22 16 25
Industrials 13 16 17 22 8 17 20 33 19 Utilities 0.6 0.6 (0.2) 0.6 NM NM NM NM
Consumer Staples 12 12 13 3 3 13 14 4 8 S&P 500 0.4 0.1 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.6 2.4 1.8
Materials 7 8 8 16 (5) 8 8 19 (6) Consumer Staples 0.1 (0.1) (0.6) (1.0) 1.0 0.9 1.6 1.5
Utilities 6 6 6 5 3 6 6 5 4 Information Technology 0.1 (0.1) 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.0
Real Estate 5 6 6 15 7 6 6 15 7 S&P 500 ex. Energy (0.7) (0.8) (1.2) (0.7) 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.6
S&P 500 ex-Energy 200 208 222 4 7 211 233 5 11 Health Care (1.3) (1.6) (1.7) (2.8) 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1
Energy 9 18 16 91 (7) 19 17 105 (12) Communication Services (3.6) (3.3) (4.7) (4.8) (0.8) (1.3) (0.4) (0.8)
S&P 500 EPS $209 $226 $239 8% 6% $230 $250 10 % 9% Consumer Discretionary (7.9) (4.2) (9.6) (4.7) (0.8) (0.5) (0.7) (0.1)
Earnings Growth (consensus bottom-up) Sales Growth (consensus bottom-up)

2022 Earnings Per Share Growth Annual 2022E Sales Per Share Growth Annual
1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE 2022E 2023E 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE 2022E 2023E
Energy 283 % 180 % 77 % 32 % 105 % (12)% Energy 56 % 47 % 31 % 16 % 36 % (5)%
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
Industrials 30 27 31 44 33 19 Communication Services 15 11 13 17 14 8
Materials 44 16 14 7 19 (6) Materials 25 17 11 8 14 (1)
Consumer Discretionary (9) 2 31 46 16 25 Consumer Discretionary 10 12 16 14 13 11
Real Estate 15 14 19 12 15 7 S&P 500 17 13 12 11 13 5
S&P 500 11 5 10 13 10 9 Industrials 13 12 14 13 13 6
Information Technology 14 3 7 10 8 12 S&P 500 ex. Energy 13 9 10 10 11 6
Health Care 18 4 2 3 7 (1) Information Technology 13 8 10 10 10 8
Utilities 18 (9) (5) 26 5 4 Consumer Staples 11 6 7 8 8 4
S&P 500 ex. Energy 5 (1) 7 11 5 11 Health Care 15 7 5 4 8 3
Consumer Staples 7 (1) 3 6 4 8
Communication Services (6) (8) (2) 5 (3) 14
Financials (18) (21) (4) 3 (11) 15
Source: FirstCall, I/B/E/S, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
13 May 2022 21
Valuation: Absolute and Relative

S&P 500 NTM P/E S&P 500 Cost of Equity = ERP + 10-yr UST
30
25 14
P/E
NTM P/E (x)
20
15 16.8 12
10
10-yr rolling avg 10
5
0 Cost of
8
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Equity
6
ERP
S&P 500 LTM P/B 4
6 10 Year
5 2 UST
P/B
LTM P/B (x)
4 4.0
3 0
2 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
10-yr rolling avg
1
We estimate the equity risk premium (ERP) using our DDM framework to model expected future cash flows.
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 We solve for the cost of equity that implies the market is at ‘fair value’ and then deduct the 10-year US treasury.
Current aggregate valuation metrics - absolute Current relative valuation vs. historical average (Z-score)
10-year 30-year
EV/ EV/ Price/ FCF PEG NTM EV/ EV/ Price/ FCF PEG Median Median
Sales EBITDA Book Yield Ratio P/E Sales EBITDA Book Yield Ratio P/E Z-Score Z-Score
S&P 500 2.7x 12.6x 4.0x 4.4 % 1.2x 16.8x S&P 500 0.8 0.1 1.1 0.0 (0.5) (0.3) 0.0 0.4
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
Energy 1.6 7.5 2.6 8.9 0.5 9.4 Comm Services (3.4) (3.4) (2.3) (1.9) (0.4) (2.5) (2.4) (1.7)
Financials NM NM 1.4 NM 1.9 12.1 Materials (1.4) (1.8) (0.9) (1.9) (0.6) (1.6) (1.5) (0.8)
Materials 2.4 9.2 3.1 5.7 1.2 13.5 Energy (0.7) (0.8) 0.4 (2.3) 0.2 (0.9) (0.7) (0.9)
Comm Services 3.2 8.5 3.1 6.2 1.1 15.5 Industrials (0.8) 0.9 (1.0) 1.0 (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) 0.0
Health Care 2.0 12.7 4.9 5.8 1.9 15.7 Financials NM NM (1.2) NM 1.0 (0.5) (0.5) (0.6)
Industrials 2.4 13.7 4.9 3.8 1.1 17.1 Health Care (1.0) (0.2) (0.4) (0.5) 2.2 0.1 (0.3) (0.7)
Real Estate NM NM 3.8 NM 2.3 18.7 Cons Discr (0.1) 0.4 0.2 3.7 (0.5) 0.3 0.2 1.1
Utilities NM 13.1 2.3 (2.5) 3.0 19.9 Real Estate NM NM (0.4) NM 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.5
Info Tech 5.7 15.9 8.9 4.2 1.4 20.4 Cons Staples (0.1) 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 2.3 0.7 0.5
Cons Staples 1.9 14.9 6.8 4.3 2.7 21.6 Info Tech 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.5 0.5 1.8 1.3 0.5
Cons Discr 2.3 15.1 8.3 1.6 0.9 22.9 Utilities NM 1.3 (0.5) 1.4 (0.0) 3.9 1.3 0.9
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, FirstCall, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
13 May 2022 22
Valuation: Sector baskets

Valuation of Cyclicals vs. Defensives Global vs. Domestic
1.5x 1.9x
Relative NTM P/E 1.8x Relative NTM P/E
1.4x
Cyclicals vs. Defensives Global more Global vs. Domestic
Cyclicals more 1.7x
1.3x expensive expensive
1.6x
1.2x 1.5x
1.1x 1.4x
1.0x 1.3x
75th %ile 1.2x
0.9x
1.1x
0.8x 1.0x
25th %ile
0.7x 0.9x
0.6x 0.8x
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Cyclicals vs. S&P 500 Defensives vs. S&P 500

1.2x
1.4x
Relative NTM P/E Relative NTM P/E
Cyclicals vs. S&P 500 Defensives vs. S&P 500
Cyclicals more 1.3x Defensives more
1.1x expensive expensive
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
1.2x
1.0x 1.1x
1.0x
0.9x
0.9x
0.8x 0.8x
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: Compustat, FactSet, I/B/E/S, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
13 May 2022 23
Factors: Performance and Valuation

Momentum Growth vs. Value
110 200
180 Value Factor

100
<GSMEFVAL>
160 (low vs. high)
140
90
120
100
80
80
Momentum Factor
70 60
<GSMEFMOM> Growth Factor
(leaders vs. laggards) 40 <GSMEFGRO>
60
(high vs. low)
20
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
2
current valuation vs. historical averages
More expensive
1
Relative to last 10 years
Relative to last 35 years
Standard deviation of
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
(1)
(2)
Factor valuation
(3) P/E multiple z-scores
compared with history
(4)
Volatility Valuation Size Returns Dividend yield Margins Growth Momentum Balance sheet
(low vs. high) (low vs. high) (small vs. large) (high vs. low) (high vs. low) (high vs. low) (high vs. low) (leaders vs. (strong vs.
laggards) weak)
Source: Compustat, FactSet, I/B/E/S, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
13 May 2022 24
Fund Flows, Fund Performance, and Short Interest

Domestic equity fund flows Mutual Fund Performance
36 30
% outperf
32 Domestic equity fund flows Mutual Fund Style YTD Distribution of
28 (4wk avg) Large-Cap Core 55% Large-Cap Core
% of Large-Cap Core Mutual Funds

25 Large-Cap Growth 41 Mutual Fund
24 Large-Cap Value 61 YTD returns
20
20 Total 53%
16
$ Billions
12
8 15 Average YTD
4 return
Mutual
0 (16.1)%
funds 10
(4) ETFs
(8) Net
flows 5
(12)
(16)
Mar-21
Mar-22
Dec-20
Dec-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Jun-22
0
(18.0) (16.0) (14.0) (12.0) (10.0) (8.0)
YTD total return (%)
Weekly fund flows Short Interest

EPFR Mutual Fund Flows EPFR ETF Fund Flows 2.3%
Total Total
Total 4-Wk Avg Flows Total 4-Wk Avg Flows 2.2% Short interest % of market cap
($ billions) Assets Flows YTD Assets Flows YTD S&P 500 median
2.1%
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
All Equity 8,357 (10.3) (81.8) 6,767 3.2 246.7
Short interest % of cap

2.0%
U.S. Equity 3,555 (4.9) (34.3) 4,220 (0.4) 113.2
Equity Income 655 0.3 4.2 431 2.3 38.7 1.9%
Int'l Equity 4,229 (3.4) (45.2) 1,998 3.2 113.0
1.8%
Global 573 (1.9) (2.4) 549 0.4 20.4
1.7%
ESG/SRI 940 0.4 19.4 272 0.5 22.5
All Bonds 5,091 (14.5) (194.4) 1,616 5.5 64.7 1.6%
All Taxable Bond 4,249 (11.5) (163.8) 1,200 (0.9) 5.7 1.5% 1.6 %
Gov't Treasury 358 0.2 2.5 331 5.4 50.4
1.4%
Municipal Bond 484 (3.1) (33.0) 86 1.0 8.6
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Dec-20
Dec-21
Jun-20
Sep-20
Jun-21
Sep-21
Jun-22
Sep-22
ESG/SRI 395 (0.9) (1.1) 54 0.3 8.1
Money Market 6,609 (8.4) (301.3) 68 1.1 10.8
Source: FactSet, EPFR, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
13 May 2022 25
Correlation, Breadth and Dispersion

Sector and Stock Correlation S&P 500 3-month Return Dispersion
0.9 50pp
S&P 500 3-month
0.8
45pp return dispersion
0.70
+/- 1 standard deviation (pp)

Average 3-Month Correlation
0.7 Average sector correlation

40pp
0.6
0.5 35pp
0.45
0.4 30pp 30-year average: 28 pp
29pp
0.3
25pp
0.2
20pp
0.1 Average stock correlation
0.0 15pp
Jul-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Dec-20
Dec-21
Sep-21
Jun-22
Mar-21
Mar-22
Dec-20
Dec-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Jun-22
Goldman Sachs Breadth Index (GSBI) Return Dispersion
100
30-yr avg = 35 GS Breadth Index +/- 1 Standard Deviation
90 σ = 28 1-Month Returns 3-Month Returns
Goldman Sachs Breadth Index
Current 30-Year Historical Current 30-Year Historical

80
May 12 Average %ile May 12 Average %ile
70 S&P 500 18 pp 16 pp 76 % 29 pp 28 pp 71 %
60
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
Communication Services 26 pp 15 pp 93 % 38 pp 26 pp 86 %
50 Health Care 19 15 86 29 26 78
Current
40 37 Financials 11 13 58 23 21 75
Real Estate 12 9 82 18 15 73
30
Industrials 15 13 74 25 23 71
20 Materials 19 14 87 26 25 65
10 <5 = Narrow breadth Consumer Discretionary 20 17 83 27 29 51
Energy 16 14 73 22 25 45
0
Consumer Staples 12 12 62 19 22 38
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Utilities 10 10 71 12 17 32
𝑅𝑅 2 ∗ ∑ 𝑤𝑤 2 R = SPX return
Information Technology 17 19 50 20 34 6
𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵ℎ = w = individual constituent weights
∑ 𝑤𝑤 2 𝑟𝑟 2 r = individual constituent returns
13 May 2022 26
Economics
GDP Core PCE and CPI Employment
12 % 7.5 7000
US Labor Market
GDP Growth (qoq annualized %)
6.5 6000
Initial Jobless
Initial Jobless Claims (thousands)

Claims
Year over Year change (%)

6.7 6.9 5.5 5000
7% 6.3
Goldman Sachs
Economics 4.5 4000
4-Week Moving
2.9 2.5 2.3 Average
2.3 3.5 3000
Core
2% CPI
Consensus
2.5 2000
1.5 Core 1000

(1.4) PCE
(3)%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0.5 0
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-24
Dec-25
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Sep-20
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
2021 2022
Current Activity (CAI) Economic Surprise (MAP) Financial Conditions (FCI)

16 12 5.0 101.0
Positive Tighter
14 US MAP Data Surprises
China CAI Surprise
(right axis) Index 100.0
12
US-MAP Surprise Index
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
10
Financial Conditions
China CAI
8 99.0
Index
US CAI
6 2 0.0
4 98.0
2 US CAI
(left axis)
0 97.0
-2
Negative Looser
-4 -8 Data Surprises
(5.0) 96.0
Dec-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-21
Mar-22
Jul-21
Jul-21
Dec-20
Jun-22
Jun-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Apr-21
Mar-22
Apr-21
Mar-22
Our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) measures the growth signal in major high-frequency activity indicators for the US economy, expressed in GDP-equivalent units.
13 May 2022 27
Goldman Sachs Global Macro Forecasts

Goldman Sachs US Economics Forecasts
Goldman Sachs Global Macro Forecasts Share % Annual Change
Change of GDP 2020 2021 2022E 2023E
units Current 3m 6m 12m to Target OUTPUT AND SPENDING
Real GDP 100% (3.4)% 5.7% 2.6% 2.2%
Equities
Consumer Spending 70 (3.8) 7.9 3.0 2.1
MXAPJ level 513 550 590 630 23 % Total Fixed Investment 20 (2.7) 7.8 3.2 2.8
TOPIX level 1829 2000 2050 2150 18 Business Fixed Investment 15 (5.3) 7.4 4.9 3.4
Structures 2 (12.5) (8.0) (4.1) 0.8
S&P 500 level 3930 4000 4300 4500 15 Equipment 7 (8.3) 13.1 6.0 2.7
STOXX Europe 600 level 424 440 460 470 11 IP Products 6 2.8 10.0 8.2 5.5
Residential Investment 4 6.8 9.2 (1.5) 1.1
Ten Year Rates Federal Government Spending 7 5.0 0.6 (4.4) (1.6)
Euro Area (Germany) % 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 43 bp State and Local Government 10 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.0
US % 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.2 38 Net Exports (Bil.) (8) (943) (1,284) (1,462) (1,388)
1 HOUSING MARKET
Japan % 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Housing Starts (000s) 1,397 1,605 1,699 1,720
Corporate Bonds New Home Sales (000s) 828 774 811 889
Existing Home Sales (000s) 5,638 6,127 5,843 5,783
High yield bp 458 427 455 500 42 bp
Case-Shiller Home Prices (%) 9.5 18.8 9.0 2.7
Investment grade bp 141 140 147 151 10
INFLATION
Currencies Core CPI 1.6 5.5 4.4 2.6
Core PCE 1.5 4.9 3.9 2.4
Euro / US Dollar EUR/$ 1.04 1.05 1.10 1.15 10 %
LABOR MARKET
Sterling / US Dollar £/$ 1.22 1.22 1.26 1.31 7 Unemployment Rate 6.7 3.9 3.3 3.2
US Dollar / Yen $/¥ 128 128 126 123 (4) U6 Underemployment Rate 11.7 7.3 6.5 6.3
Payrolls (000s) (774) 562 303 99
Commodities
GOVERNMENT FINANCE
LME Copper $/mt 9019 11500 12000 13000 44 % Federal Budget (FY, Bil.) (3132) (2775) (1100) (1050)
COMEX Gold $/troy oz 1825 2300 2500 2500 37 Federal debt-to-GDP ratio (FY, %) 100 99 95 94
Brent Crude Oil $/bbl 107 125 125 115 7 FINANCIAL INDICATORS
Fed Funds Rate 0.1 0.1 2.6 3.1
WTI Crude Oil $/bbl 106 119 119 110 4
10-year Treasury Rate 0.9 1.5 3.3 3.2
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
NYMEX Nat. Gas $/mmBtu 8 7 6 4 (51)
Real GDP
2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E
EPS Forecast EPS Growth NTM P/E Div China 1.6 % 8.6 % 4.5 % 5.0 %
2021 2022 2023 2022 2023 Current YE 2022 Yield Spain (10.8) 5.1 4.2 3.2
Australia (2.2) 4.7 3.9 2.5
MXAPJ $ 40 $ 43 $ 48 9% 10 % 11.4 x 13.0 x 3.3 % UK (9.3) 7.4 3.7 1.2
World (3.3) 6.3 3.3 3.3
France (8.0) 7.0 3.1 1.9
TOPIX ¥ 141 ¥ 145 ¥ 153 3 5 12.3 14.1 2.7 USA (3.4) 5.7 2.6 2.2
Euro Area (6.5) 5.4 2.5 1.9
S&P 500 $ 209 $ 226 $ 239 8 6 17.1 18.0 1.7 Italy (9.1) 6.6 2.4 1.7
Germany (4.9) 2.9 2.0 2.2
STOXX Japan (4.5) 1.7 1.2 1.7
€ 30 € 32 € 34 7 5 13.0 13.9 3.5 Brazil (4.2) 5.0 0.6 1.1
Europe 600
Russia (2.9) 4.4 (10.0) 2.0
13 May 2022 28
Goldman Sachs Global Macro Forecasts

EURO YEN OIL
$1.30 ¥134 $160
EUR/USD USD/JPY ¥128 $150 Brent Crude
¥130
$1.25 ¥128 $140 ($/bbl) GS
¥126 $130 $125 $125 forecast
¥126
$115
$120
$1.20
¥122 $110
$1.15 ¥123
$100 $107
$1.15 ¥118
$90
Futures
$80
¥114 market
$1.10 $1.10 $70 $94
¥110 $60
$1.05 $50
$1.05 ¥106
$1.04 $40
$1.00 ¥102 $30
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Investment Grade (IG) spread High-Yield (HY) spread Global Equity Market performance
700 bp Price Return (%) US Dollar Local
200 bp
Market 1-Wk 1-Mo 3-Mo YTD Currency
180 bp
Investment Grade High-yield Brazil (Bovespa) (2)% (17)% (6)% 10 % 1%
(IG) spread 600 bp (HY) spread Mexico (Bolsa) (3) (11) (7) (7) (7)
160 bp USD USD
147 bp 151 bp 500 bp UK (FTSE 100) (5) (10) (15) (12) (2)
141 bp
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
500 bp Australia (ASX 200) (9) (14) (8) (12) (7)
140 bp 458 bp
140 bp Spain (IBEX 35) (4) (8) (15) (14) (6)
455 bp
120 bp 400 bp Japan (TOPIX) (2) (4) (16) (17) (8)
427 bp
U.S. (S&P 500) (5) (11) (11) (18) (18)
100 bp
Europe (DJ Stoxx 600) (4) (11) (17) (20) (13)
300 bp
80 bp Germany (Dax) (2) (7) (19) (21) (14)
France (CAC 40) (4) (9) (19) (21) (13)
60 bp 200 bp Korea (KOSPI) (6) (8) (14) (21) (14)
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
China (MSCI China) (8) (11) (26) (26) (25)

Average (4)% (10)% (14)% (15)% (11)%
13 May 2022 29
Politics and policies

Market-implied change in fed funds rate US Treasury yield curve
320bp 3.75
3.50 US Treasury yield curve GS 2022E
280bp 3.30%
Futures market expectation for 3.25
fed funds tightening/(easing) 12 months:
240bp 3.00 6-month forward
225 bp 2.87%
in subsequent months 2.75 2.84%
200bp
2.6% Current
6 months: 2.50 2.4%
160bp
168 bp 2.25
Yield (%)
120bp 2.00
80bp 1.75
40bp
1.50
1.25
0bp
1.00
(40)bp 0.75 0.8%
(80)bp 0.50
0.25
(120)bp
Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 0.00
Fed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Funds
Years to Maturity
Economic Policy Uncertainty Breakeven inflation

600 3.5 %
Economic Policy Uncertainty US 10-year breakeven inflation rate
(Rolling 1-month average) 3.0 %
500
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
2.5 %
400
2.0 %
300 YE 2022
1.5 % Forward
200
1.0 %
100 Current: 0.5 %

122
0 0.0 %
May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 Nov-20 May-21 Nov-21 May-22 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
Source: FactSet, PolicyUncertainty.com, Federal Reserve Bank, Haver Analytics, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
13 May 2022 30
COVID-19 update: Confirmed cases, vaccinations, and equity performance

New US cases vs. Americans hospitalized US vaccination tracker
1.4% 4
35%
6,000,000
50% vaccinated
1,200 with first dose
US first and second
5,500,000 7-day rolling # of new cases
30% 1.2% dose daily flows
% of population vaccinated daily

vs. US hospitalized per million
5,000,000 tracker
1,000 Spot Rate (RHS) 3
4,500,000 1.0%
25%
Millions of doses
4,000,000 # of new 7DMA (RHS)
UK US cases 800
3,500,000
20% 0.8%
(LHS, rolling
3,000,000 7-day agg.) 2
France # of US 600
0.6%
15%
2,500,000 hospitalized
2,000,000 (RHS, per million)
400 0.4%
10%
1,500,000 1
1,000,000 Italy200 0.2%

5% South
500,000 Korea
0% 0 0 0.0% 0
Sep-20
0.0% 0.5% Dec-20
1.0% Mar-21 2.0%
1.5% Jun-21
2.5% Oct-21
3.0% Jan-22 4.0%
3.5% Apr-22
4.5% 5.0% Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22
Percent of population tested
GS US reopening scale
11
Relative performance of select affected industries
10
110
9
Industry performance vs. S&P 500
8 since equity market peak on February 19th, 2020
100
7
b747d5f438a94a7b9723ea99bd9b2812
GS US
6 reopening scale 90
Hotels,
5 (1-10) Restaurants,
80 & Leisure
4
3 Aerospace
70 & Defense
2
1 60
0 Airlines
Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21 Nov-21 50
As of September 15, 2021
Note: GS US Reopening scale calculates the growth or decline in various "Stay at Home" and 40
"Back to Work" metrics, then uses them to compute a score from 1 to 10. A score of 10 designates Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21 Nov-21 Feb-22 May-22 Aug-22 Nov-22
'Fully Open.' 1 implies 'Lockdown.' For methodology, see "Measuring the Reopening of America."
Source: FactSet, JHU CSSE, CDC, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
13 May 2022 31
Disclosure Appendix
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13 May 2022 32
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13 May 2022 34

US Weekly Kickstart - Lifting S&P 500 EPS Estimates But Lowering Year-End 2022 Target To 4300 On Rate Risk and Growth Fears

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13 May 2022 | 5:59PM EDT

2% -100 Change since year-end 2021

5500 $260 Goldman Sachs Consensus

YE S&P 500 ex. Financials, Utilities, Real Estate

Stocks with high growth and high margins

NVIDIA Corporation NVDA Semiconductors 441 (40) 17 38 10

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Stocks with high growth and low margins

Consensus Consensus 2023

Screen median $9 (49)% 29 % (1)% ($24) 5x

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Markets and Money Flow

S&P 500 adjusted EPS

3750 2022E $239 220 market 2%

Pricing in this report as of May 12, 2022, unless otherwise indicated.

Market Performance: YTD absolute and risk-adjusted returns

Russell 1000 Value (9) HEALTH CARE (0.8)

HEALTH CARE (9) Russell 1000 Value (0.8)

MATERIALS (10) Bitcoin (0.9)

HY Credit (10) FINANCIALS (1.0)

10-year US Treasury (10) INDUSTRIALS (1.1)

IG Credit (12) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (1.2)

INDUSTRIALS (13) S&P 500 (1.2)

FINANCIALS (15) REAL ESTATE (1.3)

S&P 500 (17) Nasdaq 100 (1.3)

MSCI Developed Markets (18) Russell 2000 (1.3)

REAL ESTATE (18) CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (1.4)

MSCI Emerging Markets (19) Russell 1000 Growth (1.4)

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (25) MSCI Emerging Markets (1.4)

Russell 1000 Growth (26) MSCI Developed Markets (1.5)

Nasdaq 100 (27) $/Euro (1.6)

COMM SERVICES (27) 10-year US Treasury (1.8)

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (29) IG Credit (2.8)

Bitcoin (37) HY Credit (3.0)

Source: Haver, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Sector Baskets – Performance Relative to S&P 500

104 104 101

102 102 100

Sector Baskets Performance

Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Sectors – Relative Performance vs. S&P 500

Industrials Energy Materials Real Estate

180 105 115

110 105 105 110

Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Banks Diversified Financials Insurance Semiconductors

Source: FactSet, compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Source: FactSet, compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

S&P 500 Sector and Industry Group Performance

Consumer Staples 7% (1.1)% (3.3)% 1% 14 % (1)% Top quartile

Utilities 3 (1.4) (7.4) 6 13 (1) Bottom quartile

S Health Care 15 (2.2) (8.2) (2) 6 (9)

R Financials 11 (5.5) (11.4) (17) (8) (15)

Food Beverage & Tobacco 4% (0.0)% (0.4)% 4% 15 % 6% Global Defensives

Telecommunication Services 1 (0.8) (5.5) (2) (14) 1 Domestic Defensives

Utilities 3 (1.4) (7.4) 6 13 (1) Domestic Defensives

I Energy 5 (3.1) (0.4) 12 57 42 Global Cyclicals

N Transportation 2 (3.6) (3.7) (8) (9) (13) Domestic Cyclicals

D Insurance 2 (3.8) (9.1) (3) 9 (1) Domestic Cyclicals

U Food & Staples Retailing 2 (3.9) (9.2) 2 17 (5) Domestic Defensives

Y Capital Goods 5 (4.6) (8.0) (8) (9) (12) Global Cyclicals

Materials 3 (5.2) (7.7) (3) (3) (10) Global Cyclicals