AndreasStenoLarsen

@AndreasSteno

Gas- and electricity prices are coming down HARD in Europe as I

predicted a month back during the PEAK of the storm

A thread on what lies ahead 1/n

10:20 AM OCT 05, 2022

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 AndreasStenoLarsen

@AndreasSteno

I wrote on Sep 8 that electricity prices didn't reflect fundamentals as the

price levels included a liquidity risk similar to what happened to LIBOR
in 08/09..

With liquidity bail-outs on the cards, it was time to FADE the price
pressures hard..

Prices are down 50% since

2/n

10:20 AM OCT 05, 2022

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 AndreasStenoLarsen

@AndreasSteno

The Nat Gas market similarly went bananas when the EU asked
member countries to front-load storages in an agreement in late June..
Now that storages are almost full, the spot pressure has EASED

Prices are down more than 50% since I entered my short commodity
bet

3/n

10:20 AM OCT 05, 2022

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 AndreasStenoLarsen

@AndreasSteno

All countries except for Hungary have reached 80% fill levels of natural
gas storages AHEAD of time, which means that the spot-pressure will
be limited for the next 3-4 weeks.. BUT..

When the heating season kicks in, you should expect this pattern to
reverse

4/n

10:20 AM OCT 05, 2022

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 AndreasStenoLarsen

@AndreasSteno

Daily withdrawals from storage will re-commence during the early parts
of November, which will lead to a completely different spot-market of
Natural Gas in a month from now..

This is likely also the time to REVERSE my current short bets on

energy imho.. Stay patient..

5/n

10:20 AM OCT 05, 2022

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 AndreasStenoLarsen

@AndreasSteno

As soon as the heating season starts, we will once again feel the
effects from this chart..

A complete lack of supply from Russia will lead to a combat for the
remaining supply.. This is a relevant story for Q4 and in to next year..

6/n

10:20 AM OCT 05, 2022

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 AndreasStenoLarsen

@AndreasSteno

This is likely also going to re-increase electricity prices from November

and onwards as Natural Gas is still in the drivers seat of the marginal
pricing of the eletricity base-load

7/n

10:20 AM OCT 05, 2022

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 AndreasStenoLarsen

@AndreasSteno

If you want to stay on top of all of these developments in European

energy prices, follow my FREE newsletter right here..

My team will release another piece on the "winners and losers" of

electricity nationalism later this week

Over and out..

10:20 AM OCT 05, 2022

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 AndreasStenoLarsen

@AndreasSteno

@Fabrizzio_rsfan Fair point 👍

12:20 PM OCT 05, 2022

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