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199001007125 (198695-X)
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Key Points: Gold price final run? Update Fund vs. Benchmark Performance in MYR
Opinion/Outlook
Since our previous update titled “Gold price final run?” dated 23rd December 2022, we note that we believe that the war
is still far from being over and closing up to the 1st anniversary of Russia invading Ukraine on 24 th February, the war
tension may rise again. This may nudge investors to seek gold investment for its safe-haven characteristic. Since then,
there have been headlines that are worth noting as seen in Exhibit 1 which show investors seeking gold investment as
a safe haven.
In the meantime, the FOMC February has closed its curtain with a well-expected 25bps rate hike announced, effectively
bringing the benchmark rate to a 4.50-4.75% target range. Historically, gold prices do react positively during interest rate
hike regimes (Exhibit 2). However, Jerome Powell’s acknowledgement of disinflation is underway was too welcoming for
investors despite he remained much of the Fed’s hawkish remarks. In short, Powell’s speech outlined three important
points the Fed continued to focus on where the Fed’s kept its hawkish stance:
1) “We think we’ve covered a lot of ground. Even so, we have more work to do” and “Restoring price stability
will likely require maintaining a restrictive stance for some time,” Powell told reporters. While recent re adings
on price pressures were encouraging, he added that “it would be very premature to declare victory.”
2) “The committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain
a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time, repeating
language it has used in previous communications.
3) “It is gratifying to see the disinflationary process now getting under way and we continue to get strong labour
market data,” Powell said. Still, officials would need “substantially more evidence” that inflation was on a
sustained downward path.
So, looking at technical analysis, the gold price (Exhibit 3) was able to breach the downtrend channel since our last
update (6th December) and appears to trade in an uptrend since. The double bottom formation coupled with the breaching
of the downtrend channel plus the gold price has been trading above the psychological 1,800 level, this indicates that
the uptrend price momentum may stay for longer. Although the Stochastic oscillator lines are within the overbought level,
the two lines did intercept recently, which signals a reversal of price momentum from buying to selling again, but we think
this would not stay for long as the gold price would have to breach the 0.236 Fibonacci level of 1,832.49 first. Thus,
should this buying momentum continue as the tension between Ukraine-Russia continues to fill headlines, the gold price
may trend higher to the next psychological level of 1,900.00 or 0.000 Fibonacci level of 2,032.20. Thus, we maintained
our target price of MYR2.8070 and a BUY rating, which reflects a 9.65% upside for the 12-month forecast return.
Key Statistics
Asset Allocation as at 19th December 2022 Total Return on NAV in USD (%)
Tradeplus Shariah LBMA Glbmaold
Year
Gold Tracker Price AM Index
2015 - -11.42
2016 - 9.12
2017 - 11.85
2018 -2.14 -1.15
2019 17.44 18.83
2020 22.66 24.17
2021 -5.64 -3.75
2022 5.93 5.48
Source : GOLDETF Website YTD* 1.61 1.21
* As at 10th February 2023
Source: Bloomberg
2) Bursa’s Website or
https://www.bursamarketplace.com/mkt/themarket/etf/TRAD
GLOSSARY
CREATION/ Creation application is an application to create new units. Redemption application is an application to redeem
REDEMPTION exiting units. For more information on the unit creation/redemption block, please refer to the respective ETF’s
prospectus.
DIVIDEND YIELD The amount of money a company pays shareholders (over the course of a year) for owning a share of its stock
divided by its current stock price—displayed as a percentage.
EXCHANGE The fund represents a basket of securities (that typically track an index), and is listed and trades like stocks on an
TRADED FUND: exchange. ETFs can be traded throughout the day.
H SHARES: Securities of companies incorporated in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and nominated by the Central
Government for listing and trading on the SEHK (Stock Exchange of Hong Kong). They can only be traded by
Chinese investors under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors Scheme (QDII). There are no restrictions for
international investors.
INDEX: An imaginary portfolio of securities representing a particular market or a portion of it.
K INDICATOR: K indicator is defined by K(d) = 1−N(d−7)/N(d), where d is the number of days from the reference date, and N(d)
and N(d−7) are the total number of infected people on days d and (d−7), respectively. Since N(d) is greater than
N(d−7) during the period from the initiation of spread to convergence, K takes a value between 0 and 1.Without
loss of generality, the daily evolution of N(d) can be expressed with a time dependent exponential factor a(d) as
N(d+ 1) = exp (a(d))N(d). Our assumption is that a(d) can be expressed by a geometric series.
NET ASSET Value of an ETF on per share basis and is calculated as total asset minus total liabilities divided b y number of
VALUE (NAV): shares.
PRICE TO The ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings. It is used
EARNINGS by investors and analysts to determine the relative value of a company's shares in an apples-to-apples comparison.
It can also be used to compare a company against its own historical record or to compare aggregate markets
against one another or over time.
PRICE TO BOOKS It is the measure to compare a firm's market capitalization to its book value and calculated by dividing the
company's stock price per share by its book value per share (BVPS). An asset's book value is equal to its carrying
value on the balance sheet, and companies calculate it netting the asset against its accumulated depreciation.
P CHIPS: P Chip companies are incorporated outside of the PRC and traded on the SEHK. A P Chip is a company that is
controlled by the Mainland Chinese individuals with its establishment and origin of the company in the PRC. The
company has at least 50 percent of its revenue or assets to be derived from the Mainland China.
RATINGS: Equity:
BUY: Total stock return (including dividends) expected to exceed 20% annually;
O-PF: Total expected return below 20% annually but exceeding market return;
U-PF: Total expected return positive but below market return;
SELL: Total return expected to be negative.
For relative performance, we benchmark the 12-month total forecast return (including dividends) for the stock
against the 12-month forecast return (including dividends) for the market on which the stock trades.
Funds
The rating a mathematical scoring system that include risks (standard deviation, Sharpe Ratio) and returns (1 -
year, 3-year, 5-year and consistency)
BUY: Total return (including income distribution) is positive and above peers’ average while risk factors are low;
O-PF: Total return is positive and above peers’ average but has higher risk factors;
SELL: Total return is negative.
Issuer Ticker Price Price date Stock rating Sector rating Disclosures
Due to time critical of this report, this information is unavailable at the time of publication
RATINGS
Tradeplus Shariah Gold Tracker (GOLDETF MK) MYR2.6000 (13 Feb 2023) BUY
(Sector Rating (N/A))
Rating and price chart ( three years/since inception history) Date Rating Closing Price
15/07/2020 Buy MYR 2.5100
05/08/2020 Buy MYR 2.7700
04/09/2020 Buy MYR 2.5900
06/11/2020 Buy MYR 2.5600
08/02/2021 Buy MYR 2.3500
26/02/2021 Sell MYR 2.2900
10/06/2021 Sell MYR 2.4900
28/07/2021 Sell MYR 2.4300
30/09/2021 Sell MYR 2.4300
10/12/2021 Sell MYR 2.4000
10/01/2022 Sell MYR 2.3900
21/02/2022 Sell MYR 2.5100
25/02/2022 Sell MYR 2.5600
02/09/2022 Sell MYR 2.4200
30/11/2022 Sell MYR 2.4900
22/12/2022 Buy MYR 2.5200
13/02/2023 Buy MYR 2.6000
Source: Bloomberg
TradePlus DWA Malaysia Momentum Tracker (MOMETF MK) MYR0.9400 (13 Feb 2023) BUY
(Sector Rating (N/A))
Rating and price chart ( three years/since inception history)
Date Rating Closing Price
18/02/2021 Buy MYR 1.1500
01/04/2021 Buy MYR 1.1500
02/06/2021 Buy MYR 1.1200
30/06/2021 Buy MYR 1.0600
30/09/2021 Buy MYR 1.0800
29/11/2021 Buy MYR 1.0900
04/01/2022 Buy MYR 1.0900
10/01/2022 Buy MYR 1.1000
01/04/2022 Buy MYR 0.9900
30/05/2022 Buy MYR 0.9700
05/07/2022 Sell MYR 0.9050
04/10/2022 Sell MYR 0.8870
01/12/2022 Sell MYR 0.8910
04/01/2023 Buy MYR 0.9270
Source: Bloomberg
Tradeplus HSCEI Daily (2x) Leveraged Tracker (HSCEI2XL MK) MYR0.6050 (13 Feb 2023) STRONG BUY
(Sector Rating (N/A))
Source: Bloomberg
Tradeplus HSCEI Daily (-1x) Inverse Tracker (HSCEI1XI MK) MYR 2.2750 (13 Feb 2023) SELL
(Sector Rating (N/A))
TRADEPLUS NYSE® FANG+™ Daily (2x) Leveraged Tracker MYR7.700 (13 Feb 2023) STRONG BUY
(FANG2XL MK) (Sector Rating (N/A))
Rating and price chart ( three years/since inception history) Date Rating Closing Price
22/06/2020 Strong Buy MYR 5.5100
08/10/2020 Strong Buy MYR 9.2700
06/11/2020 Strong Buy MYR 10.290
04/12/2020 Strong Buy MYR 10.360
08/02/2021 Strong Buy MYR 14.660
14/04/2021 Strong Buy MYR 14.680
30/04/2021 Strong Buy MYR 14.080
25/05/2021 Strong Buy MYR 12.760
02/06/2021 Strong Buy MYR 12.940
30/06/2021 Strong Buy MYR 15.080
28/07/2021 Strong Buy MYR 14.800
29/11/2021 Strong Buy MYR 17.200
02/12/2021 Strong Buy MYR 17.200
21/01/2022 Strong Buy MYR 14.020
Source: Bloomberg 21/02/2022 Strong Buy MYR 11.420
30/05/2022 Sell MYR 6.5000
# Based on rating criteria before 16th December 2019 20/09/2022 Strong Buy MYR 7.8000
04/11/2022 Sell MYR 4.4000
01/12/2022 Sell MYR 5.0600
Tradeplus NYSE® FANG+™Daily (-1x) Inverse Tracker MYR1.4500 (13 Feb 2023) SELL
(FANG1XI MK) (Sector Rating (N/A))
Principal FTSE ASEAN 40 Malaysia (CIMBA40 MK) MYR1.6600 (13 Feb 2023) BUY
– formerly known as CIMB FTSE ASEAN 40 (Sector Rating (N/A))
Rating and price chart ( three years/since inception history) Date Rating Closing Price
28/09/2018 Outperf orm# MYR 1.9000
30/10/2018 Outperf orm# MYR 1.8200
01/03/2018 Outperf orm# MYR 1.8750
15/03/2019 Outperf orm MYR 1.8550
03/09/2019 Outperf orm# MYR 1.8300
18/09/2019 Outperf orm# MYR 1.8300
16/12/2019 Buy MYR 1.8050
24/01/2020 Buy MYR 1.7950
25/02/2020 Sell MYR 1.7400
06/03/2020 Sell MYR 1.6800
18/03/2020 Sell MYR 1.4200
16/04/2020 Sell MYR 1.3900
20/08/2020 Sell MYR 1.4350
04/09/2020 Sell MYR 1.4200
11/09/2020 Sell MYR 1.3800
18/02/2021 Sell MYR 1.7450
26/02/2021 Sell MYR 1.6350
14/04/2021 Sell MYR 1.6900
Source: Bloomberg 10/06/2021 Sell MYR 1.6500
28/07/2021 Sell MYR 1.6000
30/08/2021 Sell MYR 1.6000
01/10/2021 Sell MYR 1.6100
10/01/2022 Sell MYR 1.7200
21/02/2022 Sell MYR 1.6900
25/02/2022 Sell MYR 1.7500
19/04/2022 Sell MYR 1.7300
30/06/2022 Sell MYR 1.6400
29/07/2022 Buy MYR 1.5800
09/09/2022 Buy MYR 1.6400
19/12/2022 Buy MYR 1.6500
MyETF MSCI SEA Islamic Dividend (MEMSID MK) MYR0.8420 (13 Feb 2023) BUY
(Sector Rating (N/A))
Rating and price chart ( three years/since inception history) Date Rating Closing Price
22/06/2020 Sell MYR 0.6100
20/08/2020 Sell MYR 0.6350
04/09/2020 Sell MYR 0.6900
11/09/2020 Sell MYR 0.6900
04/12/2020 Sell MYR 0.7300
18/02/2021 Sell MYR 0.7850
26/02/2021 Sell MYR 0.7850
14/04/2021 Sell MYR 0.7350
10/06/2021 Sell MYR 0.8000
28/07/2021 Sell MYR 0.7300
30/08/2021 Sell MYR 0.7450
01/10/2021 Sell MYR 0.8000
10/01/2022 Sell MYR 0.7800
21/02/2022 Sell MYR 0.7900
25/02/2022 Sell MYR 0.7900
19/04/2022 Sell MYR 0.8100
Source: Bloomberg
30/06/2022 Sell MYR 0.7850
29/07/2022 Buy MYR 0.7750
09/09/2022 Buy MYR 0.8450
19/12/2022 Buy MYR 0.8200
MyETF Dow Jones U.S. Titans 50 (METFUS50 MK) USD1.7300 (13 Feb 2023) BUY
(Sector Rating (N/A))
Rating and price chart ( three years/since inception history) Date Rating Closing Price
28/09/2018 Buy # USD 1.0700
23/11/2018 Buy # USD 1.0050
21/12/2018 Outperf orm# USD 0.9510
22/02/2019 Buy # USD 1.0200
18/03/2019 Buy # USD 1.0650
17/05/2019 Buy # USD 1.0750
28/06/2016 Buy # USD 1.1300
03/09/2019 Buy # USD 1.1150
30/09/2019 Buy USD 1.1600
16/12/2019 Buy USD 1.2600
23/12/2019 Buy USD 1.2800
24/01/2020 Buy USD 1.3600
24/02/2020 Buy USD 1.3600
05/03/2020 Buy USD 1.4000
14/05/2020 Buy USD 1.5000
Source: Bloomberg
22/06/2020 Buy USD 1.3250
04/09/2020 Buy USD 1.5100
06/10/2020 Buy USD 1.3900
06/11/2020 Buy USD 1.4900
18/12/2020 Buy USD 1.6300
18/02/2021 Buy USD 1.7200
23/03/2021 Buy USD 1.6700
14/04/2021 Buy USD 1.7350
10/06/2021 Buy USD 1.8500
28/07/2021 Buy USD 1.9000
20/09/2021 Buy USD 2.0400
01/10/2021 Buy USD 2.0400
21/01/2022 Buy USD 2.2300
21/02/2022 Buy USD 2.1300
25/02/2022 Buy USD 1.9500
02/09/2022 Buy USD 1.8250
20/09/2022 Buy USD 1.8200
04/11/2022 Sell USD 1.6500
Principal FTSE China 50 (CIMBC25 MK) MYR1.2500 (13 Feb 2023) BUY
– formerly known as CIMB FTSE China 50 (Sector Rating (N/A))
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Funds:
The rating a mathematical scoring system that include risks (standard deviation, Sharpe Ratio) and returns (1-year, 3-year, 5-year and consistency)
BUY: Total return (including income distribution) is positive and above peers’ average while risk factors are low;
O-PF: Total return is positive and above peers’ average but has higher risk factors;
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PHILLIP RESEARCH SDN BHD
199001007125 (198695-X) Page 13 of 14
PHILLIP RESEARCH SDN BHD
199001007125 (198695-X)
B-18-6, Megan Avenue II, No 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur.
Tel No: 03-2783 0300, Fax No: 03-27113036
Phillip Research Sdn Bhd, B-18-6, Block B Level 18, Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
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