8-4, BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION ‘ Binomial distribution was discovered by James Bernoulli eae rs year 1700 and was first published posthumously in 1713, eight years after his ay _ eta random experiment be performed repeatedly, each repitition being called a trial and let the occurrence of an event in a trial be called a success and its non-occurrence a failure. Consider a set of n independent Bernoullian trials (1 being finite) in which the probability ‘p’ of success in any trial is constant for each trial, then q = 1 —p, is the probability of failure in any trial. The probability of x successes and consequently (1 ~ x) failures in 1 independent trials, in a specified order (say) SSFSFFFS...FSF (where S represents success and I represents failure) is given by the compound probability theorem by the expression : P (SSFSFFFS....FSF) = P(S)P(S) P(F) P(S) P(F) 2(F) P(F) P(S) x ... x P(F) P(S) P(F) SPP DP 4-4-4 P GPF =P-P-P P+ 4-4-4 SPades {x factors} {(n -x) factors} But x successes in m trials can occur in(") ways and the probability for each of these ways is same, viz., p'ql-*, Hence the probability of x successes in » trials in any order is given by the addition theorem of probability by the expression( ") p* qs The probability distribution of the number of successes, so obtained is called the Binomial probability distribution, for the obvious reason that the probabilities of 0,1,2,..., msuccesses, viz, (1) gp, (4) qr2p2, the binomial expansion (g +p)". Definition. A random variable X is said to follow binomial distribution if it assumes only non-negative values and its probability mass function is given by : n rox=s) =| (2) Prarsx=0,1,2, so Nigel—p 0 , otherwise p", are the successive terms of ease) The two independent constants 71 and p in the distribution are known as the parameters of the distribution. ‘n’ is also sometimes, known as the di binomial distribution. eae ataies Binomial distribution is a discrete distribution as X can take only the integral values, viz., 0, 1, 2, ...,n. Any random variable which follows binomial dictate ees known as binomial variate. ‘ows binomial distribution isWe shall use the notation X ~ B (n, p) to denote that the random variable X follows binomial distribution with parameters 1 and p. The probability p(x) in (8-3) is also sometimes denoted by b (x, 1, p). Remarks 1. The assignment of probabilities in (8-3) is permissible because Ene _ (2)rar=G@+pyr=1 r=0 2. Let us suppose that trials constitute an experiment. Then, if this experiment is repeated N times, the frequency function of the binomial distribution is given by fix) = Np) =N_& (") peqes; x=0,1,2, 00m (830) a and the expected frequencies of 0, 1, 2, ..., m successes are the successive terms of the binomial expansion, N (q+ p)", q+ p=1 3. Physical conditions for Binomial Distribution. We get the binomial distribution under the following experimental conditions : (i Each tyial results in two exhaustive and mutually disjoint outcomes, termed as success and failure. (i) The number of trials ‘nis finite. (iii) The trials are independent of each other, (iv) The probability of success ‘p’ is canstant for each trial. The trials satisfying the conditions (i, (iti) and (jv) are also called Bernoulli trials. The problems relating to tossing of a coin or throwing of dice or drawing cards from a pack of cards with replacement lead to binomial probability distribution. 4, Binomial distribution is important not only because of its wide applicability, but because it gives rise’ to many other probability distributioris. Tables for p(x) are available for various values of and p. Example 8-1. Ten coins.are thrown simultaneously. Find the probability of getting at least seven heads. Solution. p = Probability of gettingahead = = q= Probability of not getting ahead = The probability of getting x heads in a random throw of 10 coins is : ve =(2)(Y G)""= (2) Q)"se02.2. -. Probability of getting at least seven heads is given by : P(X>7) =p(7) + p(8) + p(9) + p(A0) =(8)"(C2)+€8)+(8) + (0) ae te Example 8-2, A and B play a game in which their chances of winning are in the ratio 3 : 2. Find A’s chartce of winning at least three games out of the five games played. Solution. Let p be the probability that ‘A’ wins the game. Then we are given : 10 n =5,p=2 > q=i-p =2- _ Hence , by binomial probability law, the probability that out of 5 games played, A Wins ‘x’ games is given by :5) (3) (2 PX =x) =p(x)=(2) (3) ( The requird probability that ‘A’ wins at least three games is given by : x. Bis 5 2 | s =((3) w+( 9). 3x2413°x1 2X14 2049) _ 965 Example 8-3. A coffee connoisseur claims that he can distinguish between a cup of instant coffee and a cup of percolator coffee 75% of the time. It is agreed that his claim will be accepted if he correctly identifies at least 5 of the 6 cups. Find his chances of having the claim (i) accepted, (ii) rejected, when he does have the ability he claims. Solution. If p denotes the probability of a correct distinction between a cup of instant coffee and a cup of percolator coffee, then we are given : 0,1,2, 45 5 P(X 23) == (3) Bah = qei-p=z, and n=6 If the random variable X denotes the number of correct distinctions, then by the Binomial probability law, the probability of x correct identifications out of 6 cups is given by: paras =r NG (Bs (i) The probability of the claim being accepted is : recep enoren0(2) (0) 0) +()Q) (ii) The probability of the claim being rejected is P(X <4) =1-P (X25) =1-0534 = 0-466. Example 8-4. A multiple-choice test consists of 8 questions with 3 answers to each question (of which only one is correct). A student answers each question by rolling a balanced die and checking the first answer if he gets 1 or 2, the second answer if he gets 3 or 4 and the third answer if he gets 5 or 6. To get a distinction, the student must secure at least 75% correct answers. If there is no negative marking, what is the probability that the student secures a distinction ? 074; WIS Solution. Since there are three answers to each question, out of which only one is correct, the probability of getting an answer to a question correctly is given by : P =}, so that q=1-p=3 By Binomial probability law, the probability of getting r correct answers in a 8-question test is given by : P(x=x)= ps) =(8) (2) er 7 £=0,1,2,..,8 Hence, the required probability of securing a distinction (ice. answers to at least 6 out of the 8 questions) is given by : ; wo + ern) =(8) (3) (3) +(8) (4) a +(@@'@ adh a 12h =H [x $eexdZ 41] <9 33 *9]= 79.5 = 00197. . of getting correct1672 Higher Engineering Mathematics Example 14. Fit a Binomial distribution for the following data and compare the theoretical frequencies with actual ones : ¥ 0 1 2 4 cial » 2 7 ee (RGPY, Bhopal, I! Semester, June 2006) Solution. x 4] iy aft] didtafiri|e WRetelpagion | Theoretical Frequency 0 2 0 | 5c, (0.568) (0.432) = 0.015 | 100 x 0.015 = 1.5 1 14 14] 5, (0.568)! (0.432)'= 0.099 | 100 x 0.099 = 9.9 B 20 40| °C, (0.568)? (0.432) = 0.260] 100 = 0.260 = 26.0 3 34 102] °C, (0.568)' (0.432) = 0.342] 100 x 0.342 = 34.2 4 2 88] °C, (0.568) (0.432)'= 0.225 | 100 x 0.225 = 22.5 5 8 40] 5c, (0.568) (0.432)°= 0.0591, 100 = 0.0591 = 5.91 too | 284 Ef =100. Efx=284 Zfx_ 284 = = 2.84 Mean = SF 709 Mean = np = 2.84 2.84 Sp=2.84 0 => pam = 0568 q=1-p=1-0.568 = 0.432 Binomial Distribution = 100 (0.432 + 0.568)° Ans. 63.6 RECURRENCE RELATION FOR THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION By Binomial distribution, . P (r) = "C, iv ag wl) (AMLE., Summer 2002) Por +1)= "Cy pgre! 0) On dividing (2) by (1), we get Port) Gy Brig P(r) aoe Pq _ AN =1(N=2) oun =P) r (r+! n(n—In—2)....An— a P+) nor p nor ae SPURTE rag Ans. EXERCISE mo Fit a binomial distribution to the following frequency data: x 0 1 3 a f {3% 62 10 4 (U. PII Sem. Dec. 2004) ‘Ans. P(r) = '™C, (0.00999) (0.99111)""~"