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STUDIES GUIDELINES
Methodology overview on how to
conduct a prefeasibility assessment of
renewable power generation technologies
PROJ EC TS MAT URES OV ER FOU R PH A S ES ; F RO M I D EA ,
CO NCEPT A ND B U SI NESS D E VELOPMENT TO E XECUTI ON
The idea development phase The concept development The business development The project execution phase
consists of brainstorming and phase usually consists of two phase usually consists of two entails construction and
idea generation activities to stages and related studies: stages installation of the plant, plus any
give the project a more i. a prefeasibility study (PFS) i. a validation stage other civil work needed for the
rounded shape. ii. a feasibility study (FS). ii. a preparation stage project operations.
The main purpose of this The PSF is a rougher version of The best feasible idea is
phase is to flesh out selected a FS. The purpose of a PFS is to validated with detailed
business ideas and structure discard unattractive ideas and analyses of design and
the rest of the project. choose the best among many. operations. Sourcing of
permits and licenses follows.
The number of possible projects shrinks during the project development phase, as different options are assessed. One (or a subset) of initial ideas will go to execution.
Source: AACE International recommended practices; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 2
T H E CONCEPT DE VELOPMENT PH A S E U S UALLY CO NS I STS
O F A P R E FEASI BI LI TY ST UDY A ND A F EA SI BI LI TY ST UDY
The concept development phase usually consists of two stages and related studies; a prefeasibility stage
and study (PFS) and a feasibility stage and study (FS).
Source: AACE International recommended practices; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 3
PR E FEA SI BI LI TY ST UDI ES A R E S C R EENI NGS T H AT
I DENTI FY T H E B EST F EASI BLE OPT I ON( S ) O U T O F A S E T
Prefeasibility
study
A prefeasibility study is rough screening aiming at identifying the most promising idea(s) and discard the unattractive options. This reduces the number of
options that are chosen to proceed with a more detailed feasibility study and eventually with business development, ultimately saving time and money. Often, the
pre-feasibility study returns only one most promising option.
The assessment of the business idea has different focuses: technical, regulatory, environmental, economic and financial aspects are analysed. A pre-feasibility
study is a preliminary systematic assessment of all critical elements of the project – from technologies and costs to environmental and social impacts.
Usually, a feasibility study concerns the analysis of an individual project only, normally with well-defined boundaries. The whole energy system is usually assumed
as given and thus related data can be used as input to the analysis.
1 6
Scope of the study, investment context, case
Background & scope descriptions, power system and stakeholder
Business case
overview.
Economic attractiveness for the investor (NPV, IRR..), robustness
2 of the case (sensitivity analyses). Rough financial analysis.
Revenue sources, markets, support schemes or
Revenue streams tariffs, other important regulatory aspects
7
3
Sourcing of fuel and fuel price (e.g. biomass), Environmental & social aspects
Resource evaluation assessment of natural resources and expected
energy yield Evaluation of the potential impacts on the area’s environment
and other social implications.
4
Financial & technical Estimation of CAPEX, OPEX, 8
key figures technical parameters (efficiency, lifetime)
Risk assessment
5 Assessment of project risks and potential mitigation factors.
Project size & Grid and system perspective, physical planning
restrictions issues, space requirements, other relevant barriers
6
1 BACKGROUND & SCOPE Background &
scope
Revenue
The outset of a prefeasibility study should introduce the case study and shed light on the project context, touching on: streams
Resource
evaluation
Environmental &
social aspects
Risk
assessment
Political context Regulation Stakeholders
RE and other policy targets, investment Key regulation in place and how it System operators, off-takers,
landscape, political stability affects the project governmental bodies, local population,
environmental groups
To the Business Case
Revenue
One of the most important aspects of a prefeasibility study is understanding the source of revenue for the project. The main ones are: streams
Resource
Merchant project – power markets Vertically integrated system Existing Subsidy Schemes evaluation
Revenues can also be stacked, i.e., they can be sourced from different support schemes, agreements and/or markets. Environmental &
social aspects
Risk
Other factors to consider include: assessment
Currency denomination (local vs international), taxation level, inflation index, possible local content requirements,
other potential revenue stream (e.g. sale of process heat, residues, by-products)
Evaluation of future power demand and/or power prices → Quantified revenue sources
It is important to assess whether the revenue stream is stable over the years. This would involve an estimation of, for instance, the Power price for the entire project lifetime
(USD/kWh)
development in future power prices (if in a power market context) or the risk of a stagnation of power demand and related risk of
overcapacity in the system, which could reduce the utilization of the power plant under investigation. → Stability of revenue sources
over time to assess
Demand robustness of the business
Both yearly demand projections and load profiles are key aspects to be considered in relation to power demand, especially in (TWh) case (including outages,
non-hedged contexts. For merchant projects, the average power price, as well as its hourly distribution, should be considered. maintenance needs, demand
Official projections by system operators can be used and uncertainities assessed in relation to the project size. year
projections etc.)
Revenue
streams
RE mapping Resource
Tools like GIS are good for detailed mapping of wind/solar resource, hydro catchments, as well as forestry/biomass resource. evaluation
Risk
assessment
Source: Ea Energy Analyses; Global Solar Atlas; Global Wind Atlas; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 9
3 RESOURCE EVALUATION Background &
scope
Revenue
streams
Technology Resource
Evaluation evaluation
parameter Wind power Solar PV plant Bioenergy power Hydro power Geothermal power
Financial & technical
key figures
Power generation Wind Sun Organic waste from Water Thermal energy within
source/fuel plants and animals Project size &
Earth’s crust restrictions
Business
Potential for Distribution of wind Global Horizontal Feedstock (fuel) Falling water having Well conditions case
power generation speeds at site, Irradiation at site availability, including certain head and flow (temperature and Environmental &
dependency preferably over (GHI), preferably over quality of feedstock rate, preferably over material makeup of social aspects
multiple years multiple years multiple years crust)
Risk
assessment
Annual power Wind speed Projections for solar Plant efficiency and Turbine efficiency, Plant efficiency and
generation distribution combined irradiation combined availability (outages, water inflow and availability (outages,
with power curve with technical maintenance, availability (outages, maintenance etc.)
conditions feedstock etc.) maintenance, wet/dry
years), environmental
restrictions
Source: NEC, BPPT Engineering, Ea Energy Analyses and Danish Energy Agency; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 10
3 RESOURCE EVALUATION Background &
scope
Revenue
streams
Distribution (%) of wind speeds (m/s) Wind speed (m/s) turbine power Annual power generation (MWh)
Resource
at location (MW) curve evaluation
Wind
Financial & technical
power key figures
Business
power generation case
Revenue
streams
Technology figures Financial figures Resource
evaluation
• Typical capacity of power plants (MW) • Capital cost (CAPEX and DEVEX) (USD/MW) Financial & technical
• Technical lifetime (years) • Operation and maintenance cost (OPEX) (USD/MW, USD/MWh) key figures
• Plant availability, outages (%, days) • Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) (%)
Project size &
• Efficiency (Condensing and CHP, where appropriate) (%) • Corporate tax rate (%) restrictions
• Space requirement (m2/MW) • Depreciation rate and amortization approach, if relevant
• Capacity factor ranges (%) • Inflation rate (%) Business
case
• Other technical info (e.g., power curve for wind, performance ratio • Economic lifetime of project (years)
for PV) relevant for the project purpose and expected operations Environmental &
social aspects
Risk
Uncertainty assessment
At the PFS stage of the project development, a large amount of parameters are characterized by a substnatial level of
uncertainty. In the business case analysis, it is important to understand the impact of the change in key parameters (e.g.
CAPEX, WACC, lifetime) on the economical feasibility of the project. It is therefore very important to include uncertainty
ranges on as many figures as possible, to allow for detailed sensitivity analyses. To the Business Case
Revenue
Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) CAPEX breakdown (%) streams
In most energy projects, especially capital-intensive ones such as PV and DEVEX Resource
evaluation
wind, CAPEX are the most important cost figure and thus are key to Construction
determining the feasibility of the project. CAPEX includes also Financial & technical
key figures
development expenditures (DEVEX) in this guide. Soft costs
Project size &
To be considered when defining CAPEX: CAPEX restrictions
• Consider cost changes overtime and installation date, especially for Rotor
technologies whose costs evolve quickly like PV Nacelle
Tower
• Consider distance to the grid and cost of connection, including
evaluation of regulation on the matter (e.g., does the developer pay Land acquisition
shallow or deep connection costs?) Logistics
Soft costs
• Estimate the uncertainty, which can be used to test the case
robustness CAPEX
Source: KPMG, Danish Embassy in Jakarta, Danish Energy Agency; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis 13
5 PROJECT SIZE & SITING: SYSTEM AND GRID Background &
scope
Each technology has a list of considerations for determining a first estimation of the optimal site and size of a project, which will be finally determined
in the FS. Revenue
streams
Resource
evaluation
Wind power Solar PV plant Bioenergy power Hydro power Geothermal power Financial & technical
key figures
Environmental
aspects
Location Wind resource Space limitations, Trade off for distance: Water reservoirs or Temperature of crust,
considerations distribution, space shading between rows capital cost (lower for rivers, local water life, risk of mudslides Risk
assessment
limitations, obstacles and surface slope of larger project) vs environmental during drilling
that can disrupt the site transport cost (lower restrictions on use of
airflow and visual for small projects), water
impact on landscape alternative uses of
feedstock To the Business Case
Grid Non-dispatchable – Non-dispatchable – Dispatchable – plants Dispatchable – rapid Dispatchable – best → Expected central estimate for
integration weather dependent, weather dependent, can be ramped up and ramp rates and large economical case as project size
considerations on considerations on down, considerations ramp ranges, base load (flexibility
→ Range of potential project
security of supply and security of supply and on security of supply considerations on increases costs), sizes for eventual sensitivity
limits of grid limits of grid security of supply considerations on analysis
integration integration security of supply
Source: NEC, BPPT Engineering, Ea Energy Analyses and Danish Energy Agency; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 14
6 6BUSINESS CASE: INPUTS FOR BUSINESS CASE Background &
scope
Revenue
1 2 3 4 5 streams
Cost of capital, financial assess robustness of the of feedstock for biomass Uncertainty ranges for as Risk
environment. business case (including and biogas many figures as possible assessment
outages, maintenance
needs, demand projections
etc.)
Input to Business case Input to Business case Input to Business case Input to Business case Input to Business case
WACC Revenue over time Generation CAPEX and OPEX Potential capacity
CAPEX Demand Feed stock price WACC Land requirement
Outage Potential capacity Efficiency
Lifetime
Outage
Land requirement
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method Revenue
• Cash flows in the earlier periods are weighted higher than cash streams
Business
Years case
Environmental
The importance of the Cost of Capital aspects
• The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is an essential
Risk
element for calculating the value of a project assessment
• The WACC is the rate that a company is expected to pay on
average to all its security holders to finance its assets Discounted CAPEX Discounted Revenue Discounted OPEX
• For a project to be financially feasible its returns (on a project
basis) must exceed the WACC
Nominal vs Real prices
Cost of • In economic language, real and nominal values represents two different
Cost of
WACC = Equity + Debt
(after tax)
ways of expressing monetary terms (i.e., units of currency).
Source: Technical University of Denmark; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis.
16
6 BUSINESS CASE: EVALUATION Background &
scope
A business case can be evaluated based on various financial metrics Revenue
streams
Key metrics for evaluation Sensitivity Analyses
Resource
evaluation
When evaluating the economic feasibility of a project, the following indicators • Often used to assess the robustness of the business case. Usually
are relevant: done on key parameters: CAPEX, fuel price, WACC. Financial & technical
▪ Also, important to consider technical assumptions (e.g., wind key figures
• Net Present Value (NPV) – shows what a project is worth to us today based production estimates)
Project size &
on discounted cash flows. Enables comparisons of projects with different restrictions
timings and cash flow distributions over the project lifetime. • Not to be confused with scenario analyses!
𝑇 • In scenario analyses we create a certain picture of the future Business
𝐶𝐹𝑡 case
𝑁𝑃𝑉 = −𝐶𝐹0 + (e.g., “Business as Usual”, “Green Scenario”)
1+𝑟 𝑡
𝑡=1 • In sensitivity analyses we test the robustness of a business Environmental
case against one parameter while keeping all other aspects
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR) – shows the annual effective compounded assumptions the same.
Risk
return rate of a project i.e. the annual return a project is expected to yield. assessment
The discount rate yielding an NPV of 0.
𝑇
𝐶𝐹𝑡
0 = −𝐶𝐹0 + 𝑡
𝑡=1
1 + 𝐼𝑅𝑅 Different approaches in business case evaluation
• Payback Time (PBT) – shows the number of years required to recover an • Comparison of LCOE with potential tariff or PPA
initial investment based on cumulative cash flows.
• Comparison of IRR with expected WACC or investor benchmark
• Levelised Cost Of Energy (LCOE) – shows the average cost of a project over • Evaluation of absolute value of NPV
its lifetime, taking into account the cost of capital. Often used for comparing
technologies and for tracking economic developments of technologies over • Comparison of payback time to economic lifetime and investor
time. preference or duration of PPA
Source: Technical University of Denmark; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis.
17
7 ENVIRONMENTAL & SOCIAL ASPECTS Background &
scope
Environmental and social impacts are an important part of feasibility study and prefeasibility study that are often overlooked due to a focus on the economics. This Revenue
streams
allows to hedge against serious problem, which might arise during the project implementation and operations. In a prefeasibility study, these issues should be
mapped as a minimum. The assessment can be based on current regulation, past experience (when relevant), and acceptance levels. Environmental and social Resource
evaluation
considerations can also feed into the Risk Assessment.
CO2 Financial & technical
Key aspects to consider: RE projects: avoided emissions NOx PM key figures
• Pollution of air, water and soil Often, when investing in RE projects, there are positive environmental externalities for
Project size &
restrictions
• Land use example in terms of avoided PM, NOx, SOx, and CO2 emissions. It is relevant to quantify
• Visual impact, noise, odor this benefit of the projects. Business
case
• Wildlife endangerment
• Emissions of pollutants (PM, NOx, SOx) and carbon dioxide (CO2) To assess the avoided emission of CO2 and other pollutants, existing or alternative Environmental &
• Conflict with other local activities (e.g., agriculture/fishing) energy projects need to be considered. This is often complicated since the power social aspects
• Project acceptance from local stakeholders sector is complex and interconnected (import/export), generation patterns change Risk
hour-by-hour and the fleet evolves overtime. assessment
Considerations should be made also with respect to current or
alternative technologies deployed. Two main approaches exist:
• Average approach: today’s average emissions for the power sector are calculated
based on annual production and it is assumed that the project replaces the average
annual generation.
Source: Technical University of Denmark; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis.
18
8 RISK ASSESSMENT Background &
scope
Revenue
Risk is an event or a set of events that, should they occur, will have an effect on the project. Risks are classified within the following categories: streams
Resource
evaluation
Political risks – changes in support schemes, taxation rates, Technical risks – efficiency, maintainability, new
international sanctions etc. technologies etc. Financial & technical
key figures
Business
These potential risks should be screened, and main project risks identified – Useful tool is the Risk Matrix case
For each risk identified, a dedicated risk mitigation measure (or strategy) should be identified – Useful tool is a Risk Register Environmental
aspects
Risk
assessment
• Plots Likelihood vs Impact for Set up as a table that should at least contain the following themes:
the identified risks
• Likelihood is estimated as a level Risk name Description Impact Action
Impact
of probability
Short name of Brief Describe the Identify which
• Impact is normally estimated in
the identified description of impact that the actions to take
terms of potential capital loss
risks the risks – risk can have for mitigating
should enable a on the project the risk
discussion
Likelihood
Source: KPMG, Danish Embassy in Jakarta, Danish Energy Agency; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis 19
8 RISK ASSESSMENT: SPECIFIC RISK Background &
scope
Each power generating technology has its own list of potential risks factors to be considered Revenue
streams
Resource
evaluation
Wind power Solar PV plant Bioenergy power Hydro power Geothermal power Financial & technical
key figures
Revenue
streams
Resource
evaluation
Inflation – inflation rate higher than Amendment of terms – unfavorable Terrorism – risk of terror attack and Environmental
aspects
expected changes in terms damage to the project
Risk
assessment
Interest rate – interest rate higher than Revision of support – unfavorable changes Natural catastrophe – risk of natural
expected in subsidies and support event that will damage the project
[1] AACE International. Evaluating Capital Cost Estimation Programs. Chemical Engineering. August 2011
[2] Ea Energy Analyses. Biomass for energy - Prefeasibility Study of a Biomass Plant in Java. February 2018
[3] KPMG, Danish Embassy in Jakarta, Danish Energy Agency. Lombok - Prefeasibility studies on RE solutions. January 2019
[4] Technical University of Denmark. Feasibility studies and assessment of energy technologies. 2020
[5] NEC, BPPT Engineering, Ea Energy Analyses, Danish Energy Agency. Technology Data for the Indonesian Power Sector - Catalogue for Generation and Storage of Electricity. December 2017
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GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS
Net Present Value Net present value (NPV) is the difference between the present value of cash inflows and the 𝑵𝑷𝑽 = −𝐶𝐹0 + σ𝑇𝑡=1
𝐶𝐹𝑡
present value of cash outflows over a period of time. 1+𝑟 𝑡
(NPV) Formula notation: CF0 is the cash flow at year 0 and CFt is the cash flow at year t, r is the
discount rate considered and T the total lifetime of the plant.
The internal rate of return is a discount rate that makes the net present value (NPV) of all cash 𝑇
Internal Rate of Return 𝐶𝐹𝑡
flows equal to zero in a discounted cash flow analysis. 0 = −𝐶𝐹0 +
(IRR) 1 + 𝑰𝑹𝑹 𝑡
𝑡=1
Weighted Average Cost The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is a calculation of a firm's cost of capital in which 𝐸 𝐷
𝑾𝑨𝑪𝑪 = 𝐸+𝐷 ∗ 𝑅𝑒 + 𝐸+𝐷 ∗ 𝑅𝑑 ∗ (1 − 𝑇)
each category of capital is proportionately weighted.
of Capital Formula notation: E and D are the total Equity and Debt, Re and Rd the return on equity and debt
(WACC) respectively and T the tax rate in the country.
Levelized Cost of The LCOE can also be regarded as the minimum constant price at which electricity must be sold 𝑳𝑪𝑶𝑬 =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
in order to break even over the lifetime of the project. 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡
Electricity Formula notation: It , Mt and Ft are respectively the investment, maintenance and fuel cost at σ𝑇𝑡=1 𝑡
𝐼 + 𝑀𝑡 + 𝐹𝑡
(LCoE) 1+𝑟 𝑡
the year t, Et is the output of the plant at the year t, r is the discount rate considered and T the =
𝐸𝑡
total lifetime of the plant σ𝑇𝑡=1 𝑡
1+𝑟
Full load hours and Full load hours (FLH) is a convenient notion expressing the equivalent number of hours of 𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 [𝑀𝑊ℎ]
𝑭𝑳𝑯 [ℎ] =
production at rated capacity that would give the same annual generation. Multiplying the FLH 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 [𝑀𝑊]
Capacity factor value by the installed capacity gives the production throughout one year.
The concept is equivalent to that of capacity factor (%); to convert capacity factor to FLH simply 𝐹𝐿𝐻
multiply the capacity factor by the total number of hours in a year (8760). 𝑪𝑭[%] =
8760
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LIST OF ACRONYMS
24