RANDOM ERRORS THEORY

Learning outcomes

 At the end of this lesson, the students shall be able to:

1) Recognize the theory of probability
2) Distinguish the properties of the normal distribution curve
3) Solve problems on % probable error
 Introduction

The adjustment of measured quantities containing

random errors is a major concern to people involved
in the geospatial sciences.

Again, what are random errors?

 Theory of probability

 Probability is the ratio of the number of times that

an event should occur to the total number of
possibilities.
 When an event can occur in m ways and fail to
occur in n ways, the probability of its occurrence is
m/(m+n), and the probability of its failure is
n/(m+n).
 Theory of probability

 A compound event is the simultaneous occurrence

of two or more independent events.
 For example, random errors from angles and
distances (compound events) cause traverse
misclosures. The probability of the simultaneous
occurrence of two independent events is the
product of their individual probabilities.
 Theory of probability

 Consider this example…

 There are two boxes containing combinations of
red and white balls. Box A contains four balls, one
red and three white. Box B contains five balls, two
red and three white. What is the probability that
two red balls would be drawn if one ball is drawn
randomly from each box?
 How about if two white balls?
 Theory of probability

 Thus the probability of the simultaneous occurrence

of two independent events is the product of the
individual probabilities of those two events.
Or:
𝑷 = 𝑷𝟏 × 𝑷𝟐 × ⋯ × 𝑷𝒏
 Theory of probability

 If the number of combining measurements, n, is

increased progressively to larger values, the plot of
error sizes versus probabilities would approach a
smooth curve of the characteristic bell shape.
 Normal error distribution curve or probability
density function of a normal random variable.
Normal probability
density function
PROPERTIES OF THE NORMAL
PROBABILITY CURVE
 50% Probable Error

 For any group of observations, the 50% probable

error establishes the limits within which 50% of the
errors should fall. In other words, any
measurement has the same chance of coming
within these limits as it has of falling outside them.
 For any set of observations, the 50% probable error
can be obtained by computing the standard error
and then multiplying it by 0.6745:
𝑬𝟓𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟕𝟒𝟓σ
 USES FOR PERCENT ERRORS

 Standard errors and errors of other percent probabilities

are commonly used to evaluate measurements for
acceptance.
 EXAMPLE

 Suppose that the following values (in feet) were obtained in 15

independent distance observations, 𝐷𝑖 : 212.22, 212.25, 212.23, 212.15,
212.23, 212.11, 212.29, 212.34, 212.22, 212.24, 212.19, 212.25, 212.27, 212.20,
and 212.25. Calculate the mean, S, 𝐸50 , 𝐸95 , and check for any
observations outside the 99.7% probability level.