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Lecture 1 Outline:
Tiago Cavalcanti1
I Growth Facts
1 University of Cambridge I Solow Growth Model
I Implications and some tests of the theory
E200: Macroeconomics
Cambridge
Michaelmas 2022
Main questions in social science Cross-Country Income Differences (PPP GDPpc, $ 2017)
( pp95
05
)1960 = 19
Cross-Country Income Differences (PPP GDPpc, $ 2017) Cross-Country Income Differences (PPP GDPpc, $ 2017)
( pp95
05
)1960 = 19; ( pp95
05
)1980 = 39 ( pp95
05
)1960 = 19; ( pp95
05
)1980 = 39; ( pp95
05
)2000 = 46
Cross-Country Income Differences (PPP GDPpc, $ 2017) Cross-Country Income Differences (pop weighted)
( pp95
05
)1960 = 19; ( pp95
05
)1980 = 39; ( pp95
05
)2000 = 46; ( pp95
05
)2019 = 40
Cross-Country Income Differences (pop weighted) Cross-Country Income Differences (pop weighted)
1. 50% world pop (low + low middle) have 10% of world income.
i,00
ypc
US,00
ypc
i,80
ypc
: NGA=0.12; VEN=0.46; GBR=1.01; SGP=1.30; KOR=2.92
US,80
ypc
GDPi,19 US,19
pc /GDPpc
Movement Within the Distribution, GDPi,00 US,00 GDP per capita growth and population growth
pc /GDPpc
i,19
ypc
US,19
ypc
i,00
ypc
: VEN=0.02; GRC=0.85; GBR=1.01; SGP=1.62; CHN=2.69
US,00
ypc
World Economic History in one Picture - Clark (2007) Income and welfare
x xmin
Ii = ,
xmax xmin
1 1 1
HDI = ILife
3
IEduc
3
IIncome
3
.
0.7
1. 2013: US rank (HDI=5, GNI=11) differential +6
2. 2013: UK rank (HDI=14, GNI=27) differential +13
HDI
0.6
Table: Real Income Growth by Groups, 1993-2010, Saez and Piketty (2012)
Lt+ Lt
Lt+ = (1 + n)Lt ) Lt+ Lt = nLt ) = nLt 2. Households save a constant fraction of income, i.e. exogenous
savings rate s(.) = s > 0.
I Define: Ẋ = lim t!0
Xt+ t
t
Xt
L̇(t) dL(t)
= n, where L̇(t) = .
L(t) dt
The Solow Model: Capital Stock Technology I
)National income accounting
Ȧ
3. A = g , A(t) = A(0)egt . Exogenous technological progress.
2. In equilibrium (closed economy): I(t) = S(t) = sY(t);
C(t) = (1 s)Y(t). Therefore,
Technology II Firms
Production function: ⇣ ⌘
1 1 1
Y(t) = F(K(t), A(t)L(t)) = ↵K(t) + (1 ↵)(A(t)L(t))
Let’s focus on the Cobb-Douglas case. Firms maximize profits (For
" ⇣ ⌘# 1
@ log
FK
FL
the sake of space, let’s now omit the time descriptor.):
Elasticity of substitution: = @ log( K .
)
L
⇡ = max{K ↵ (AL)1 ↵
wL rK K}.
K,L
1. Cobb-Douglas: As ! 1, then
I FOCs:
Y(t) = F(K(t), A(t)L(t)) = K(t)↵ (A(t)L(t))1 ↵
. Y
w = (1 ↵)K ↵ A1 ↵
L ↵
= (1 ↵) ,
L
2. Leontief: As ! 0, then Y
rK = ↵K ↵ 1
(AL)1 ↵
=↵ .
K
Y(t) = F(K(t), A(t)L(t)) = min{↵K(t), (1 ↵)A(t)L(t)}.
K̇ K ↵ (AL)1 ↵
C
K̇ = sK ↵ (AL)1 ↵
K, ) =s , C = (1 s)Y, ) = (1 s), ) gC = gY = gK = g + n.
K K Y
✓ ◆1 ↵
AL
gK + = s . ✓ ◆↵
K K
w = (1 ↵)K ↵ A1 ↵
L ↵
= (1 ↵)A ) gw = g.
|{z}
Along the BGP gK + is constant, therefore: = const. AL
K
AL
K
=const
Taking log of both sides and differentiating with respect to time: AL
✓ ◆1 ↵
Ȧ L̇ K̇ AL
ln(A)+ln(L) ln(K) = ln(const) ) + = 0 ) gK = g+n. rK = ↵K ↵ 1
(AL)1 ↵
=↵ ) grK = 0.
|{z}
A L K K
K
AL
=const
K̇ = sY K.
Y K
Divide both sides by AL and recall that ỹ = AL , k̃ = AL :
K
Define: k̃ = AL . Notice that
✓ ◆↵ K̇ K ↵ (AL)1 ↵ K K̇
Y K ↵ (AL)1 ↵ K =s ) = sk̃↵ k̃,
ỹ ⌘ = = = k̃↵ ⌘ f (k̃), AL AL AL AL
AL AL AL
K d K̇AL (ȦL + AL̇)K K̇ Ȧ L̇
k̃ = ) k̃ = k̃˙ = ) k̃˙ = ( + )k̃.
AL dt (AL)2 AL A L
I ỹ = Y
AL denotes output per efficient unit of labor
K̇ Ȧ L̇ K̇
= k̃˙ + ( + )k̃ ) = k̃˙ + (g + n)k̃.
I k̃ = K
denotes capital per efficient unit of labor. AL A L AL
AL
k̃˙ = |{z}
sk̃↵ (n + + g)k̃
| {z }
investment depreciation
Dynamics to the BGP II Dynamics to the BGP III
Observe that:
k̃˙
ỹ = f (k̃) k̃˙ = sk̃↵ (n + g + )k̃ ) k̃ = = sk̃↵ 1
(n + + g).
k̃
Then:
˙
k̃ = sf (k̃) (n + + g)k̃
k̃˙ 1 @ k̃ 2
(g + n + )k̃
k̃ = = sk̃↵ (n + + g) ) = s(1 ↵)k̃↵ < 0.
k̃ @ k̃
ỹ
s ỹ = sf (k̃) Moreover:
The model is globally stable and there is a unique k̃⇤ (k̃˙ ⇤ = 0):
0
0
k̃(0) k̃ k̃⇤ 4
x 10 1
s 1 ↵
s(k̃⇤ )↵ = (n + g + )k̃⇤ ) k̃⇤ = .
n+g+
=
˙
k̃
= s f(k̃k̃) (n + + g)
1. If k̃ < k̃⇤ , saving/investment exceeds depreciation, thus k̃ > 0.
k̃ k̃
k̃
Properties of the Balanced Growth Path I Properties of the Balanced Growth Path II
k̇ Ȧ k̃˙
k = Ak̃ ) = + =g+ k̃ = g.
k A k̃
Golden Rule and Dynamic Inefficiency I Golden Rule and Dynamic Inefficiency II
Definition: (Golden Rule) Saving rate that maximizes consumption
in the long run (BGP).
↵ c̃⇤ = (1 s)f (k̃ ⇤ )
s 1 ↵
max c̃⇤ = (1 s)f (k̃⇤ ) = (1 s) ,
s n+g+
h i 1
s 1 ↵
where k̃⇤ = n+g+ and f (k̃⇤ ) = (k̃⇤ )↵ .
↵ ↵
1 c̃⇤
@c̃⇤ s 1 ↵ ↵ s 1 ↵ 1
= +(1 s) ,
@s n+g+ 1 ↵ n+g+ n+g+
↵
1
@c̃⇤ s 1 ↵ s ↵
= = 0 ) sGR = ↵.
@s n+g+ n+g+
1. If s < sGR , then increases in s would increase c̃⇤ in the long run.
0
0 sGR 1
s
2. If s > sGR , then increases in s would decrease c̃⇤ in the long run
(Economy is dynamically Inefficient)
The Solow Growth Model: Solution I Parentheses: Linear versus log scales
43
x 10 Linear Scale Log-Scale
100
˙ = sk̃(t)↵
k̃(t) ( + g + n)k̃(t).
x(t) = e xt
x(0) 99
ln(x(t)) ) dln(x(t))
dt = ẋ(t)
x(t) = x
98
97
96
92
0 90
Point: Use log scales to describe variables that are growing over time.
Transition Dynamics in the Solow Growth Model Policy change: Savings rate
3. Along transition, k̃ and ỹ, rises, but growth rate slows down.
(Can you show what happen with c in the transition?)
4. In new BGP, per capita variables K/L, Y/L, and C/L grow again
at rate g.
A rise in the savings rate - Dynamic Efficient Economy A rise in the savings rate - Dynamic Inneficient Economy
˙ =
k̃| (1 ↵)(n + g + )(k̃ k̃⇤ ).
k̃⇤
Speed of Convergence III Speed of Convergence IV
) k̃(t) = (1 e t )k̃⇤ + k̃(0)e t
˙ =
k̃| (k̃ k̃⇤ ), where = (1 ↵)(n + g + ). I Speed of convergence. Define t ⌘ thalf by:
k̃⇤
k̃⇤ k̃(0)
k̃(thalf ) k̃(0) =
2
) Particular solution: k̃˙ = 0 ) k̃P (t) = k̃⇤
thalf ) 1 1 thalf
so that: (1 e = ) =e
) Homogeneous solution: k̃˙ + k̃ = 0 ) k̃H (t) = Ce t 2 2
) k̃(t) = (1 e t )k̃⇤ + k̃(0)e t I = (1 ↵)(n + g + ) does not depend on the savings rate.
(United States: ↵ = 1/3, n = 0.01, = 0.06, g = 0.02 )
= 0.0533 ) thalf = 13.125. Point: Too Fast!)
↵ ↵
ln y = gt + ln A(0) + ln s ln( + n + g)
1 ↵ 1 ↵
I Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992), assumed that g and are
common to all countries and A(0) = c0 + ✏i
↵ ↵
ln yi = c0 + ln si ln( + ni + g) + ✏i .
1 ↵ 1 ↵
I They run the following regression:
ln yi = c0 + c1 ln si c2 ln( + ni + g) + ✏i .
How well does the Solow model do? Explaining Differences in Income Levels
1. About 59% of cross country income difference can be explained I Aggregate production function:
by differences in investment rate and population growth
Yt
2. Qualitative: Predicts the correct signs for coefficients Yt = At F(Kt , Ht ) ) = yt = At F(kt , ht ) (Ht = ht Lt ).
Lt
3. Quantitative:
yt = TFPt ⇥ F(Resourcest ).
I Implied ↵ is about 0.60, which is too high.
I However, if ↵ ⇡ 1/3 then neoclassical model predicts a
relatively short transition (fast convergence). TFPt : Total Factor Productivity;
I Observed rate of convergence ⇡ 2% per year to cover half of the
Resourcest : Physical capital and human capital;
distance between k(0) and k⇤ . Requires ↵ = 0.75, which is too
high for narrowly defined physical capital.
Development Accounting
2
2
1.5
1.5
(h_j/h_US)^0.6
(k_j/k_US)^0.4
ESP
ITA
FBEL
RALUX IRL BRNKWT
CYP
JPNFIN
AUT
DNK SGP
HKG
NLD USA NOR USA NOR
1
.5
✓ ◆ ✓ ◆↵ ✓ ◆1 ↵✓ ◆
yit kit hit Ait Figure: Physical capital Figure: Human capital
= .
yjt kjt hjt Ajt
2
1.5
BRN
TTO
(A_j/A_US)
BRB NOR
TUR GBR
SWE SGP
CHELUX
TWN
SAUCAN HKG
AUT
MDV ISR ISL DNKNLD
FRA
DEU
BEL
ITA
FIN
AUS
PAN POLNZL CYP ESP
BLZ GAB SVKGRC
HRV JPN
SDNIRQDOM
IRN
MEX
VEN RUS
ARG PRTMLT
LTU KOR
CHL EST
LVASVN
CZE
GTMCRI
ZAF ROUHUN
KAZ
BGR
EGY URYSRB
.5
SYRMUS
PER
BWA BHR
MYS
COL
BRA
ECU
TUN
INDARM ALB
IDNTHA
TJK
MAR
PAK
NAM
JAM
PRY
CHN
BOL UKR
LKAJOR
MNG
MLI
COG
YEM
KGZ
HNDMDA
FJI
SWZ
PHL
KHM
MRT
CIV
VNM
GHA
RWA
ZMB
LAO
CMR
GMB
UGA
BGD
KEN
MOZ
BEN
NPL
SLE
TZA
SEN
LSO
NER
TGO
LBR
BDI
MWI
CAF
COD
SLV
0
0 .5 1 1.5 2
(y_j/y_US)
A/A_US y/y_US
Figure: TFP
Differences in TFP Questions to Think
1. Has the world become more (un)equal?
I Policy implications (countries can be transformed by ensuring 2. Do we observe movements in the world income distribution over
they have the same ‘tech’) but... time?
I However, it is very unclear exact what At captures It is 3. What is the driving force of long-run economic growth?
traditionally calculated as a residual.
4. Does the Solow model predict convergence of income per capita
I It captures our ignorance about what goes into production across countries?
beyond labor and capital!
5. Is the empirical evidence on convergence consistent
I Idiosyncratic geographic, cultural, institutional differences. (quantitatively and qualitatively) with the predictions of the
Countries being locked in one of many equilibria (some bad), Solow Growth model?
policies, etc.
6. Is the empirical evidence on income levels consistent with the
Solow Growth model?
Further Readings
I Acemoglu (2009): ‘Introduction to Modern Economic Growth’,
Chapters 1-4 (plus various interesting books on development e.g.
‘Why nations fail?’)
I See also Jones’s Nobel lecture (in honor of Paul Romer) ’Ideas,
nonrivalry and endogenous growth’ (this is well beyond the
course)