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On Intelligence - Jeff Hawkins: Chapter 8: The Future of Intelligence

The document discusses the future of artificial intelligence and intelligent machines (IMs). It describes how IMs will be built using hierarchical memory systems modeled after the human cortex. This will allow IMs to learn from their senses and build models of the world to make predictions. The largest technical challenges for creating IMs are memory capacity and connectivity, but these may be solved within the next 10-50 years. IMs are not expected to threaten humans but could be useful tools, with near-term applications including speech recognition, security cameras, and smart vehicles. In the longer-term, IMs could dramatically expand human capabilities in areas like mathematics, science, and sensing the physical world.

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120 views11 pages

On Intelligence - Jeff Hawkins: Chapter 8: The Future of Intelligence

The document discusses the future of artificial intelligence and intelligent machines (IMs). It describes how IMs will be built using hierarchical memory systems modeled after the human cortex. This will allow IMs to learn from their senses and build models of the world to make predictions. The largest technical challenges for creating IMs are memory capacity and connectivity, but these may be solved within the next 10-50 years. IMs are not expected to threaten humans but could be useful tools, with near-term applications including speech recognition, security cameras, and smart vehicles. In the longer-term, IMs could dramatically expand human capabilities in areas like mathematics, science, and sensing the physical world.

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On Intelligence Jeff Hawkins

Chapter 8: The Future of Intelligence


Presented by: Melanie Swan, Futurist MS Futures Group 415-505-4426 melanie@melanieswan.com http://www.melanieswan.com

NIH BCIG April 27, 2006

Building Intelligent Machines (IMs)


Introduction What will IMs be like? Technological challenges and timing Moral/ethical issues Potential applications for IMs Conclusion
NIH BCIG April 27, 2006

Near-term Longer-term

IMs can be built but may not be like what we think


Appearance and interaction not human-like Limited-application robots (smart cars,
autonomous mini-submarines, self-guided vacuums/mowers) before androids/robots
1. Necessity: IMs only require cortex equivalent 2. Cost: Excessive cost/effort for humanoid robots

Multiplicity of IM physical embodiments: cars,


planes, computer room racks
Distributed sensors and memory system
NIH BCIG April 27, 2006 3

How to create an IM
IM: Sensory input that is connected to a
hierarchical memory system that models the world and predicts the future Recipe for building IMs
Set of senses to extract patterns from the world Attach a cortex-like hierarchical memory system Training period builds a model of its world through its senses Result: With its own model of the world, the IM can
analogize to past experiences and make predictions

NIH BCIG April 27, 2006

Largest IM technical challenges: memory capacity and connectivity


Capacity
Cortexs 32 trillion synapses ~= 80 hard-drives An entire cortex is not required IM memory chip error tolerance benefit vs. traditional silicon Speed and sharing substitutes for complexity A cortex cell might connect to 5,000 or 10,000 other cells Electrical pulses are 1 million times faster than neurons Cortex dedicated axons can be IM shared connections Many approaches to this brain chip connectivity problem underway
5

Connectivity

When? 10-50 years / within my lifetime NIH BCIG


April 27, 2006

Should we create IMs?


Dark imaginings vs. potential benefits of new technology Unlikely for IMs to threaten large portions of the
population (Matrix, Terminator)
IMs will be defined-capacity human-controlled tools

Being intelligent is being intelligent, not being human

Concludes

IMs (based on the neocortical algorithm) will not have emotions Best application: where human intellect has difficulty, tedium IM ethics, easy compared to genetics and nuclear energy IMs are not self-replicating machines No contemplated way for humans to copy minds into machines

NIH BCIG April 27, 2006

Why should we build IMs? What will IMs do in the near-term? Imagine near-term uses for brainlike
memory systems
Auditory applications: speech recognition Multi-year training period Visual applications: security camera (crowbar vs. gift) Transportation applications: truly smart car

NIH BCIG April 27, 2006

Why should we build IMs? What will IMs do in the longer-term?


Technique: Identify scalable aspects (cheaper, faster
and smaller) Speed: IMs can do in 10 seconds what a human can do in a month Capacity: many times human capacity; no biological constraint Replicability: easy to copy, reprogram vs. human brains Sensory systems: any natural sense plus new senses Pattern-recognition: any input with non-random with a richness or statistical structure

NIH BCIG April 27, 2006

Why should we build IMs? Specific applications


Application: any mismatch between human senses and
the physical phenomena we want to understand
Protein folding Mathematics and physics

Distributed, globe-spanning sensory systems

Understanding and predicting human motivations and


behavior Minute entity sampling Pattern representation in cells or large molecules Meta-IM: Collecting several IMs into one whole

Weather, animal migration, demographics, energy use

NIH BCIG April 27, 2006

Conclusion, IMs

Think and learn a million times faster than humans Remember vast quantities of detailed information See incredibly abstract patterns Have (distributed) senses more sensitive than our own Think in three, four or more dimensions

Are not limited Turing Test concepts but amazing tools


that could dramatically expand our knowledge of the universe

NIH BCIG April 27, 2006

10

Thank you!
Presented by: Melanie Swan, Futurist MS Futures Group 415-505-4426 melanie@melanieswan.com http://www.melanieswan.com
Licensing: Creative Commons 3.0

NIH BCIG April 27, 2006

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