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JEL classification codes: Smart City policies have attracted relevant attention and funding over the last few years. While the time seems
R11 now ripe to conclude that such policies have a positive impact on urban economic growth, the picture is much
R12 less clear when looking at the microfoundations of this effect.
H43 In this paper we look at the urban innovation impact of Smart City policies. In fact, typical Smart City projects
Keywords: imply the involvement not only of major multinational corporations, along with local public authorities, but also
Smart City of local companies, typically with the aim to translate general technological solutions to the local needs.
Program evaluation A new data set collected for these analyses comprises data on Smart City features for 309 European me-
Propensity score matching
tropolitan areas, Smart City policy intensity, and urban innovation outputs. The latter are proxied by calculating
total patent applications to the European Patent Office between 2008 and 2013. Patent counts also include
technologically narrower classes, namely high-tech, ICT, and specific Smart City technologies patent applica-
tions.
Propensity Score Matching estimates suggest that cities engaging in Smart City policies above the EU average
also tend to patent more intensively. This effect is stronger for high-tech patents, while decreases for more
narrowly defined technological classes. This last result suggests possible technological spillovers from technol-
ogies directly involved in Smart City policies.
⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: andrea.caragliu@polimi.it (A. Caragliu), chiara.delbo@unimi.it (C.F. Del Bo).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.07.022
Received 20 December 2017; Received in revised form 8 May 2018; Accepted 14 July 2018
0040-1625/ © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article as: Caragliu, A., Technological Forecasting & Social Change (2018), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.07.022
A. Caragliu, C.F. Del Bo Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
Transportation Authority (SFCTA), have been involved in the deploy- 2.1. Innovation in cities
ment of the sensors and in monitoring the project's performance
(UPADE, 2014). A crucial issue underlying the literature positioning of the analyses
Another example also discussed in GSMA (2013) is the municipality discussed in this paper is the role played by urban areas as innovation
of Busan's (South Korea) partnership with Cisco and KT to promote an cradles. The very existence of cities has been justified in terms of the
App Development Centre to co-create Smart City services by means of role they play in facilitating the production, diffusion, and accumula-
start-ups. A cloud-based mobile app development platform has helped tion of knowledge (Duranton and Puga, 2004). Easier face-to-face
establishing over the first year since inception 13 start-ups, which contacts allow consumers and firms to lower transaction costs in
yielded a grand total of 70 new apps, with total revenues equal to 2.2 transmitting, decoding, and exploiting new knowledge. However, it is
million USD and revenues from online sales equal to 42,000 USD. important to dig deeper into these microfoundations to better link the
Other celebrated examples of effective public-private partnerships rather generic literature on Smart Cities and the impact we expect from
for delivering innovative Smart City technologies are also discussed in the adoption of Smart City policies on urban innovation performance.
the literature on European case studies. For instance, Amsterdam's Theoretically, the key concept that links Smart Cities with innova-
Climate Street initiative has the aim to transform a traditional retail tion is the notion of agglomeration economies. Because of a denser and
street, Utrechtsestraat, into a sustainable shopping area by optimizing more concentrated structure of production and consumption, urban
the street's stores' energy and logistics management, along with the areas lower production and consumption costs, thus representing po-
related public services. Smart meters constantly monitor demand and tentially attractive locations for consumers and producers. Such ex-
supply of energy, and grids also constantly measure how full public ternalities are a convenient way to justify the very existence of cities,
trashcans are, so that waste collection only takes place when needed. that otherwise also cause non-negligible environmental and social costs.
These combined actions have allowed the city of Amsterdam reduce Classical economists (Marshall, 1920; Smith, 1776) have stressed
annual CO2 emissions from 3400 tons in 2010 to 1276 tons in 2012 how these externalities can represent an additional competitive ad-
(GSMA, 2013). vantage for production. Following the classification proposed in Hoover
These examples provide a rich background against which our em- (1936), Marshallian scale economies can be decomposed in pure scale
pirical approach can be usefully tested. Urban innovation, therefore, economies (internal to the firm and the industry); localization econo-
seems at first glance to be a potentially relevant channel of Smart City mies (accruing outside the firm's perimeter, but well within a given
policy impact, and this paper sheds light on its extent. A new data set industry's boundaries); and pure urbanization economies, i.e. those due
collected for these analyses comprises data on Smart City features for to the co-location of diverse industries that learn from one another
309 European metropolitan areas, Smart City policy intensity, and exactly because they are closely located.
urban innovation outputs. The latter are proxied by calculating total Within this framework, many of the sources of agglomeration
patent applications to the European Patent Office on the basis of the economies can be related to the first and second type of externalities.
OECD RegPat data base. Patent counts also include technologically Hoover's classification identifies three main sources of production-re-
narrower classes, namely high-tech, ICT, and specific Smart City tech- lated localization economies, viz. the joint exploitation of fixed social
nologies patent applications.1 capital (transport and communication infrastructure, public utilities);
Estimates are built on Propensity Score Matching (henceforth, indivisibilities in the supply of goods and services; and the synergy due
PSM), in order to uncover causation links. Results suggest that cities to the existence of an industrial and managerial culture. Within the
engaging in Smart City policies above the EU average also tend to pa- Smart City paradigm, all these factors can be enhanced by enacting
tent more intensively. This effect is stronger for high-tech patents, while efficient Smart City policies.
it decreases for more narrowly defined technological classes. However, the world depicted in classical economics has changed.
In order to understand the impact of Smart City policies on urban Manufacturing activities have been relocating away from major urban
innovation, we move as follows. In Section 2 we critically summarize areas for decades now (Donoghue, 2014), at least in advanced econo-
two main strands of literature within which our empirical work is mies. Traditional traded goods become increasingly standardized, and
framed. In Section 2.1 we briefly discuss the burgeoning literature on can hence be produced more conveniently in more peripheral locations,
cities as innovation hubs. In Section 2.2, instead, we deal with the much with lower rents. However, cities still remain on the rise: how can this
less prominent, but growing, literature on Smart City policies. In trend be reconciled with the Marshallian framework? Two possible
Section 3 we describe the identification strategy adopted for testing the candidates can be identified in (i.) The nature of cities as large markets
main assumption of the paper. Data and details on the Propensity Score (i.e., the increasing importance of cities as consumption centers:
procedure are discussed in Section 4, while Section 5 presents the main Glaeser et al., 2001), and (ii.) The nature of cities as knowledge hubs,
empirical findings of the paper. Finally, Section 6 concludes by drawing which is supported by overwhelming empirical evidence (Camagni
the main policy lessons, as well as by highlighting future developments et al., 2016; Caragliu et al., 2016; Moretti, 2004; Rosenthal and Strange,
in this promising line of research. 2004).
In both cases, Smart City policies can act as facilitators for these
effects. Smart City projects at least partially translate into more busi-
2. Literature review ness opportunities for local companies joining public procurement. This
is expected to thicken local markets thus contributing to the city's
In this section we critically summarize the two main strands of lit- performance. Moreover, because Smart City policies do tend to make
erature to which our empirical findings are anchored. In Section 2.1 we cities more efficient (Caragliu and Del Bo, 2018a, 2018b), innovation
review some highlights of the urban economics literature on agglom- processes are also expected to be fostered, mainly through a general
eration economies, which stresses a set of urban productivity- enhan- improvement of local knowledge production functions, as well as
cing externalities. In Section 2.2, instead, we discuss the (to date rather through the positive fallout from the generation of local solutions for
thin) literature on Smart City policies, in particular in terms of their international Smart City projects.
expected impact.
2.2. Smart City policies
1
Section 5.2 (“Robustness checks”) also exploits a broader definition of IPC
classes aiming at capturing Smart-City related fields, in particular encom- What is a “Smart City policy”? How does it differ from other, more
passing IPC 1 digit classes F (“Mechanical engineering; Lighting; Heating; traditional urban policies? The aim of this section is to provide a
Weapons; Blasting”), G (“Physics”), and H (“Electricity”). working definition of Smart City policies, based on existing literature,
2
A. Caragliu, C.F. Del Bo Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
by highlighting their main characteristics, links to the definition of On the basis of these two strands of literature, the following re-
Smart City, implementation and funding strategies and peculiarities search question calls for specific empirical verification:
which allow to distinguish them from other urban policy initiatives. RQ. What is the impact of Smart City policies on urban innovation?
Within the EU, several policy projects revolving around the Smart Such question hides non-negligible identification issues. Reverse
City concept have been initiated, also thanks to community-wide in- causality may be due to the fact that innovative cities also tend to en-
itiatives and funding opportunities, which are often made easier by gage more in Smart City policies. In the next section, therefore, specific
creating specific platforms such as the European Commission's attention is devoted to how such issues are tackled in our analyses.
“European Innovation Partnership on Smart Cities and Communities
(EIP-SCC)”.2 A recent report (Collins et al., 2017) provides a synthesis 3. Identification strategy
of the characteristics of 114 EU Smart City projects between 2005 and
2016. The median project lasts 4 years and costs around mil. € 9.935, In this section, the way to assess the direction of causality in the
with a contribution by the EU for the same median project of mil. € empirical model of the paper is discussed and statistically tested. In
5.039. Countries implementing the highest number of individual in- fact, along with the usual means to empirically verify whether the
itiatives are Spain, UK, Germany and Italy. In terms of the projects' chosen Propensity Score methodology is a sound way to rule out reverse
targeted areas, environmental and energy projects dominate between causality, it is important to understand the microfoundations of the
2005 and 2007 and after 2010, with more ICT related initiatives be- expected impact.
tween 2008 and 2010. These trends are related, on the one hand, to the In this sense, we summarize some relevant features of the landscape
policy goals set at the EU level, where smartness in terms of energy of Smart City policy impact which has been recently clarifying and
sustainability is one of the Horizon 2020 targets (EP, 2012); on the crystallizing around a few stylized facts:
other, to the evolution of the definition itself of Smart Cities. In fact,
initial analyses revolved around the concept of “sustainable cities” 1. Some Smart Cities focus on hard infrastructure, such as the de-
(Ahvenniemi et al., 2017), with specific attention to environmental is- ployment of optic fiber networks or other types of fast internet
sues and on ICT as the main driver of smartness (Caragliu and Del Bo, connection, the installation of sensors in the built environment, the
2018c). exploitation of open data and Internet-of-Things (henceforth, IoT;
Angelidou (2017) examines the Smart City plans of 15 world-wide Stratigea et al., 2015), while others seem to hinge more on soft in-
major cities and shows how the focus is mainly on ICT as a factor that frastructure such as human and social capital, or the quality of
can improve urban systems and ultimately foster urban innovation. A governance (Ahvenniemi et al., 2017);
critical review of the implemented project, however, highlights a lack 2. The interplay between policy interventions on hard and soft infra-
of bottom-up approaches and stakeholder involvement and a general structure seems to characterize the very concept of Smart City; in
disregard of local conditions, in clear contrast with the (theoretical) fact, infrastructure without the local characteristics enhancing its
tenets of Smart City policies and practices. efficient exploitation implies serious risks of policy failure (Caragliu
In order to gain further insight on the characteristics of actually et al., 2011);
implemented Smart City policies, a recent document by the national 3. Quantitative evidence of a direct impact of urban smartness seems
association of Italian municipalities (ANCI, 2016) describes the char- to be scant. Some (e.g. Caragliu and Del Bo, 2016) find a positive
acteristics of Italian Smart City projects implemented in recent years. Of association between urban smartness and the probability to invest in
the 1300 projects as of 2015, councilors are in charge of the project in smart policies, while in Caragliu and Del Bo (2018a) the latter are
61% of the cases, while in 3 (large) municipalities out to 10 the re- found to improve urban economic performance.
sponsibility rests with the mayor, suggesting the importance attributed
to these initiatives by the local public authorities. Furthermore, 29% of Within this framework, insufficient attention has been paid to the
cities involved have established an ad hoc “Smart City” office, re- possible intermediate channels that explain the positive impact of
inforcing the prominence of this specific urban policy orientation. In adopting Smart City policies on urban performance. In fact, most
terms of thematic orientation, 20% of projects are concentrated in the previous works leave the transmission mechanism between policies
mobility sector, while the remaining projects are more or less equally and growth in a black box, simply assuming that policies with a
distributed over the remaining topics considered by the report (en- Smart flavor will automatically enhance urban economic perfor-
vironment, energy, economy, people, living, government, planning). mance.
However, a common feature is represented by a focus on participative It can be argued that urban administrations investing in Smart
processes, an integrated approach to urban planning across municipal City policies trigger chain reactions that ultimately do lead to faster
offices and a focus on ICT, although not always seen explicitly as policy growth, but how this comes about should be empirically verified on
tools. the basis of sound microfoundations. In particular, to date insufficient
These nation-specific findings can be framed in a more conceptual attention has been paid to the possible innovative fallout of the local
literature examining Smart City policies from a planning and policy adoption of Smart City policies. The core investment in these cases is
evaluation perspective. Nam and Pardo (2011), for example, analyze in fact in the acquisition and deployment of Smart City technologies –
Smart City policies within the broader group of urban development e.g., sensors for monitoring the built environment, integrated plat-
policies and stress the importance of policy integration, an explicit and forms, management software - which, while typically engineered in
focused branding strategy and a demand-driven perspective. Angelidou some core multinational companies located far away, need to be
(2014) suggests the importance of building on a city's existing strengths translated and adapted to the local needs. This is expected to poten-
focusing on a limited number of interventions, coordinating the policy tially engender several positive feedbacks among local ICT firms,
definition and implementation within different municipal departments, thereby stimulating local innovation which represents one of the most
and involving the various stakeholders. direct impacts of adopting such policies. In this paper we tackle this
last impact by means of Propensity Score Matching (henceforth,
PSM).
2
http://ec.europa.eu/eip/smartcities/index_en.htm. PSM assumes that the units of observation, in the present paper
SCC is the innovation platform providing a marketplace and possible pub- identified as EU cities, are subject to an exogenous shock that, all else
lic–private partnership developments for both priorities and policies. We would being equal, stimulates a differential change in an outcome variable of
like to thank an anonymous reviewer for highlighting this role for SCC in- interest. Given the literature previously discussed, this paper deals in
itiatives. particular with the effect of Smart City policies on innovation rates in
3
A. Caragliu, C.F. Del Bo Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
cities engaged in such policies.3 that do not, we can first statistically verify that the number of patent
Therefore, in this case, treatment is defined as the intensity of en- applications filed by cities active in SCPs is significantly higher than in
gagement in Smart City policies. While a sound definition of such po- less engaged cities. A classical t-test for mean differences suggests that
licies would entail a much deeper discussion of how the definitions of cities engaged in SCPs tend to file 13.6 patent applications to the EPO in
Smart Cities available in the literature are empirically translated into the technological classes synthesized in Table 1, against a mean of 4.2
policy objectives, it is here convenient to refer to Angelidou (2014) and for cities less active on the SCPs front, on the whole analyzed time
Caragliu and Del Bo (2016) to briefly recap the main features of Smart period (viz. between 1976 and 2016). The difference is statistically
City policies: significant at all conventional levels, thus suggesting a rather strong
difference.
• Policies are based on existing strengths and typically focus on a Next, we can exploit the same information to graphically represent
subset of core areas of intervention; the time evolution of the patenting activity in SC-related technological
• Coordination takes place between different policy departments; classes for cities engaged, or non-engaged, in SCPs. Policies in this sense
• Stakeholders are involved in the design and implementation of the act as a treatment proper: in the absence of other confounding factors,
policies; we can use SCPs engagement as a shock allowing to identify possible
• Investment in ICTs is typically matched by physical and institutional causality directions in any impact. Fig. 1 shows that, while a positive
changes; trend in patenting activity for SC-related technological classes char-
• The scale of interventions is usually relatively small, so that small- acterizes both treated and untreated cities, the former show a remark-
scale integrated projects are more likely to succeed. able increase at the end of the 1990s, when Smart City policies have
been first enacted (Komninos and Mora, 2018).6 This evidence
While advanced technologies are generically the object of such in- strengthens the case for using SC policies as a treatment in assessing the
terventions, a few technological classes typically draw the attention of impact of such policies on urban innovation. The Propensity Score
companies and policymakers. Among those, a major, although not ex- Matching procedure used to perform this impact analysis is described in
clusive, role is played by technologies related to the IoT (Deakin, 2013), the next section.
mostly because of the crucial importance of sensors used in the built Lastly, on the basis of this identification strategy, an estimable re-
environment to monitor urban performance in some crucial dimensions duced form model for translating the research question discussed in
(traffic flows, air and water pollution, waste management, etc.). The Section 2 can now be formalized (Eq. (1)):
notion of IoT was first discussed in a presentation given by Kevin
Ashton to P&G in 1999,4 and literally took off at the end of the 1990s inni, t = Xi, t + Zi, t + εi, t (1)
with the pervasive diffusion of sensors connected by means of networks
where inn stands for urban innovation, i indexes cities and t indexes
that allow inter-operability, remote controlling, and sensing. A recent
time. In Eq. (1), X is a matrix of controls, including a proxy (population
classification of IPC classes5 presented in IPO (2014) allows to more
density) for agglomeration economies, that are typically a major driver
precisely pinpoint and describe the type of technological classes iden-
of urban innovation (Section 2.1), and two locational dummies, equal
tified within this paradigm. (Table 1).
to one when the city is located in Central and Eastern European
Given the relatively recent development of these technologies, it is
countries and is a Country capital, respectively. The former captures the
reasonable to assume that patenting activities in the IPC classes defined
convergence process that took place over the accession period to the
above should have taken off around the second half of the 1990s. A
EU; the latter aims at measuring the higher probability to enact SC
valid treatment in our case would thus be associated to a differential
policies in cities where control centers and high-rank administrative
impact of innovations in these classes for cities engaging at different
and economic functions are typically located. Matriz Z includes instead
levels in Smart City policies. If cities enacting Smart City policies be-
the full breakdown of the six Smart City axes identified in the Caragliu
have significantly differently from those that do not, thereby presenting
et al. (2011) definition, namely human and social capital, transport and
more patent applications in the relevant classes, then this represents an
ICT infrastructure, e-government and natural resources. Lastly, εi,t is the
ideal identification strategy for an empirical setting aimed at assessing
usual i.i.d. disturbance.
whether such policies cause higher innovation in cities.
We first provide statistical evidence that this may indeed be the
case. We reach this goal by exploiting the RegPat data base (Maraut
4. Data and propensity score procedure
et al., 2008), which bears information on all patent applications filed to
the European Patent Office since 1976. Patents are classified according
4.1. Data
to their main (i.e., prevailing) technological class. They can be matched
to their inventor and/or assignee (both associated to their georefer-
Our empirical strategy requires different urban level data. In this
entiation in terms of Territorial Level 3 regions, corresponding to the
paper data are measured at the metropolitan area level, following the
EU's NUTS3 level). Also, each patent bears information about its
EUROSTAT classification (EUROSTAT, 2017a). Specifically, we need
priority year (viz. the year when the patent was first filed; other dates
information on Smart city policies implemented by the municipalities; a
depend on administrative procedures and may thus bias the correct
measure of urban Smartness; a set of city-level characteristics not
interpretation of technological change). Combining all this information
summarized by the Smart City indicator and, finally, information on
for all patents filed in the technological classes shown in Table 1 for
patenting activity. In what follows we provide a description of the
cities engaging in Smart City Policies (henceforth, SCPs) and for those
strategies to obtain the different information needed for the empirical
analyses.
3
While the strict exogeneity of this instrument can also be verified from a Smart city policies are measured following the approach proposed
statistical point of view, it is important to stress that Smart City policies are not in Caragliu and Del Bo (2016), to which the interested reader is directed
directly meant at fostering urban innovation, but rather at stimulating a better for a more in depth description of the methodology. Intensity of smart
management of the city. urban policies is gauged by summarizing the information gathered from
4
Ashton (1999). four data sources:
5
“The International Patent Classification (IPC), established by the Strasbourg
Agreement 1971, provides for a hierarchical system of language independent symbols
6
for the classification of patents and utility models according to the different areas of Details on the data set assembled for performing both this descriptive
technology to which they pertain” (WIPO, 2017). analysis as well as econometric estimates are presented in Section 4.1 below.
4
A. Caragliu, C.F. Del Bo Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
Table 1
Smart City IPC codes and description of technological classes.
Source: IPO (2014)
IPC code Description of technological class
H04L029/08 Communication control; Communication processing characterised by a protocol; Transmission control procedure, e.g. data link level control procedure
H04L012/28 Data switching networks characterised by path configuration, e.g. LAN (Local Area Networks) or WAN (Wide Area Networks)
H04L029/06 Communication control; Communication processing characterised by a protocol
G06F015/16 Digital computers in general; Data processing equipment in general; Combinations of two or more digital computers each having at least an arithmetic unit, a
programme unit and a register, e.g. for a simultaneous processing of several programmes
G05B019/418 Programme-control systems → electric → Total factory control, i.e. centrally controlling a plurality of machines, e.g. direct or distributed numerical control
(DNC), flexible manufacturing systems (FMS), integrated manufacturing systems (IMS), computer integrated manufacturing (CIM)
H04W084/18 Network topologies → Self-organising networks, e.g. ad hoc networks or sensor networks
H04W004/00 Services or facilities specially adapted for wireless communication networks
G08C017/02 Arrangements for transmitting signals characterised by the use of a wireless electrical link → using a radio link
H04W072/04 Local resource management, e.g. selection or allocation of wireless resources or wireless traffic scheduling → Wireless resource allocation
H04B007/26 Radio transmission systems, i.e. using radiation field for communication between two or more posts, at least one of which is mobile
150000
25000
Patent applications to the EPO in Smart city technologies, untreated cities
firms are involved in these activities, IBM is the only one which
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Priority year maintains an official website listing the partnership with individual
Untreated cities Treated cities
cities, and for this reason is the basis for the indicator variable
“private” which takes on value 1 if the municipality has partnered
with IBM to develop Smart City policies and 0 otherwise.11
Fig. 1. Patent applications to the EPO in Smart City technologies for cities
engaging or non-engaging in Smart City policies. The indicator thus obtained is used as a treatment discriminant as
Source: Authors' elaboration on EPO data suggested in Section 3. In particular, the overall count of the four
dummy/standardized variables just discussed is ranked in decreasing
1. A list of cities engaged in Smart City policies provided in European order of intensity, and cities are defined as treated if this last indicator
Parliament (2014). Cities within this list are considered successful in is above the sample median. In other words, we define cities as treated
implementing smart urban policies in the sense of presenting an when their Smart City Policy intensity is above the EU median policy
alignment between their objectives and those encompassed by the engagement.
EU2020 strategy. We thus used this information to create a dummy Urban smartness is measured by operationalizing the definition of
variable, equal to 1 if cities are included in this study and 0 other- Caragliu et al. (2011) and following the methodology proposed in
wise; Caragliu and Del Bo (2015). Proxies for the six axes of the definition
2. Members of the Eurocities network.7 The Eurocities network dates (human capital; social capital; transport infrastructure; ICTs; natural
back to 1986 and was created by a small group of European cities resources; e-government) are collected. Table 2 summarizes the vari-
wishing to create a formal relationship of non-capital cities. The ables used and their sources in detail. Smart City indicators are con-
members have now grown to 103 and are active in forums, working structed for a sample of 309 EU cities with data between 2008 and
groups and projects with the major focus on Smart City projects, 2012. Specifically, for each axis of the definition, four individual in-
seen as conducive to the EU goal of smart and sustainable growth.8 dicators have been used and then reduced through PCA techniques. To
Based on this network, an indicator variable was created, taking on increase data availability, mean values for the Urban Audit data for the
value 1 if cities belong to this network and 0 otherwise; period 2008–2012 have been considered. Missing data has been dealt
3. Cities actively involved in Framework Programme 7 (henceforth, with linear interpolation and mean values of previous years or similar
FP7) Smart City initiatives. Information on urban involvement and cities.
funding from FP7 projects was gathered from the factsheets on Lastly, urban innovation is measured by counting patent applica-
Smart City Projects9 and the European Commission's SCC web tions to the European Patent Office in various classes. The RegPat data
page.10 An indicator variable was creating merging information on base (Maraut et al., 2008) classifies information on all patent applica-
both already-funded projects and commitments, in order to have the tions filed to the European Patent Office since 1976 on the basis of their
inventor, applying institution, and IPC technological classes. By
7
http://www.eurocities.eu/
8
http://www.eurocities.eu/eurocities/activities/working_groups/Smart-
11
Cities&tpl=home. Additional list of cities engaged in quasi-Smart City initiatives are next
9
http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/en/node/72869. exploited in Section 5.2 (Robustness checks). The interests reader is referred to
10
http://ec.europa.eu/eip/smartcities/index_en.htm. this subsection for further details on this data source.
5
A. Caragliu, C.F. Del Bo Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
Table 2
Indicators for the 6 axes of the Smart City definition.
Source: Caragliu and Del Bo (2015)
Urban smartness axis Raw data
1. Human capital Proportion of population aged 15–64 qualified at tertiary level (ISCED 5–6) living in Urban Audit cities - %
Students in tertiary education (ISCED 5–6) living in Urban Audit cities - number of students per,1000 inhabitants
Proportion of employment in financial intermediation business activities
Proportion of employment public administration health education
Number of companies with headquarters in the city quoted on the national stock market
2. Social capital Car thefts per 1000 pop.
Burglaries per 1000 pop.
Crimes per 1000 pop.
Number of elected city representatives
3. Transport infrastructure Length of public transport network per inhabitant
Share of restricted bus lanes from public transport network
Number of buses (or bus equivalents) operating in the public transport per 1000 pop
Number of stops of public transport per 1000 pop.
4. ICT infrastructure Percentage of families with internet access at home
Number of local units producing ICT products
Number of local units producing ICT-related services
Number of local units producing web content
5. Natural resources Proportion of solid waste arising within the boundary processed by recycling
Proportion of the area in green space
Green space (in m2) to which the public has access, per capita
Annual average concentration of PM10
Annual average concentration of NO2
6. E-government % of internet users who interacted via internet with the public authorities in the last 12 months (Country data)
% of internet users who sent filled forms to public authorities in the last 12 months (Country data)
Number of administrative forms available for download from official web site
Number of administrative forms which can be submitted electronically
counting the number of patents filed by inventors located in each cities with a dashed line and treated cities with a continuous line; the
NUTS3 region over the observed time frame in each classification of two lines largely overlap.
technological classes relevant for measuring SC technologies, we obtain In conclusion, the matching procedure seems to be reliable and to
a picture of the intensity of the outcome of innovative activity. In offer a good means by which to assess the causal link between en-
particular, we use four patent counts, with a general-to-particular ap- gagement in SC policies and urban innovation.
proach: total patents, high-tech patents (including all IPC classes listed
in EUROSTAT, 2016), ICT patents (EUROSTAT, 2017b), and Smart City
patents (following the classification shown in Table 1).12 5. Do Smart City policies make cities more innovative? Results of
propensity score matching estimates
The indicator built on the basis of the intensity of Smart City po-
This section discusses the results of empirically testing the relation
licies is classified in two classes, viz. cities above and below the mean of
between Smart City policies and urban innovation. The impact of SC
Smart City policy intensity. The two types of cities identified on the
policies on innovation can be manifold; consequently, we verify such
basis of the sample of cities for which data have been collected is shown
impact on four different patent counts indicators, discussed in Section
in Fig. 2, with black areas representing cities with a Smart City policy
3.
intensity above the EU mean, and light grey shapes indicating cities
Results are presented as follows. Table 3 shows Probit estimates of
with a Smart City policy intensity below the EU mean.
the determinants of adopting Smart City policies (Eq. (1)). This re-
Matching of the treated and untreated cities is performed on the
presents the first stage of the PSM procedure. Table 4 shows instead the
basis of the Kernel procedure. Kernel matching typically yields lower
outcome of the PSM procedure proper. We estimate the impact of SC
variance, although it may possibly lead to including observations that
policies on urban innovation by looking at the average treatment effects
are bad matches (Caliendo and Kopeinig, 2008). Results of the pre-and
on the treated for different urban innovation measures, viz. total pa-
post-matching procedure balancing of the sample suggest a remarkable
tents, high-tech patents, ICT patents, and Smart City patents.
overlapping of the treated and untreated cities' density functions
Results shown in Table 3 provide a few hints on the real determi-
(Fig. 3). However, it must be noted that some positive bias characterizes
nants of SC policy adoption within the black box of urban smartness. In
the distribution of the cities within the treated and untreated samples,
Caragliu and Del Bo (2016), an aggregate indicator of urban smartness
in particular for what concerns intangible growth assets (most notably
is found to be positively associated with the probability to invest in SC
human and social capital, and population density; Fig. 4 plots the re-
policies. Table 3 hints at a positive role of intangible features (human
lative extent of the variable-specific bias).
and social capital) in increasing the likelihood that cities engage in
Lastly, the quality of the matching procedure can also be evidenced
Smart City policies. The infrastructure and e-government/natural re-
by ranking treated and untreated units (in this case, cities with a SC
sources components provide instead a more blurred picture. Taken to-
policy intensity above or below the mean EU value) according to their
gether, these two results suggest that context conditions within each
propensity score (Dehejia and Wahba, 2002). Fig. 5 shows untreated
urban area still crucially matter in driving cities towards engaging in
challenging policy programs.
12
Other IPC classes are exploited in Section 5.2 as ways to further assess the As for control variables, while the impact of urban density, as a
robustness of our findings. Such definitions are described in more detail in the proxy for agglomeration economies, is found to be insignificantly as-
robustness checks subsection. sociated with the probability to adopt SC policies, a positive and
6
A. Caragliu, C.F. Del Bo Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
2
1.5
1.5
kdensity _pscore
kdensity _pscore
1
1
.5
.5
0
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 0 .2 .4 .6 .8
propensity scores before matching propensity scores after matching
treated control
significant coefficient is estimated for both locational dummies (cities patent, and Smart City patent applications to the EPO over the
located in Central and Eastern European countries, and capital cities), 2008–2013 period. Results suggest that across different measures of
confirming the role of the convergence process taking place within the innovation outputs, cities that do enact Smart City policies tend to
EU and the importance for cities of being central policy centers. deliver a significantly higher innovation output. Mean differences are
Table 4 shows instead average treatment effects on treated units statistically significant at least at the 90% level for all innovation output
(ATT); in other words, controlling for the determinants of propensity measures. Clearly, as the definition of the technological class we mea-
scores, ATT shows the mean value of total patent, high-tech patent, ICT sure narrows down, average patent applications per urban area
7
A. Caragliu, C.F. Del Bo Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
human_capital
d_capital
lpop_density
social_capital
ict_infrastructure
d_east
natural_resources
e_government
transport_infrastructure Unmatched
Matched
-20 0 20 40 60
Standardized % bias across covariates
Table 3
1
.8
Propensity score treated
.6
8
A. Caragliu, C.F. Del Bo Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
Table 4 and replicated, and that lead to measurable benefits in energy and resource
Average treatment effects on the treated for different urban innovation mea- efficiency, new markets and new jobs” (EC, 2018, p. 2).
sures. ERRIN is instead a Brussels-based platform comprising more than
Variable Sample Treated Controls Difference S.E. T-stat 120 regional stakeholders organization, largely represented by their
Brussels offices. ERRIN is meant to enhance “knowledge exchange be-
Total patent Unmatched 219.89 77.97 141.92 41.47 3.42 tween its members, focusing on joint actions and project partnerships to
applications ATT 180.16 70.11 110.05 39.30 2.8
strengthen regional research and innovation capacities. Through these ac-
to the EPO
High-tech patent Unmatched 48.70 9.72 38.98 10.79 3.61 tions ERRIN seeks to contribute to the implementation of the Europe 2020
applications ATT 40.70 8.71 31.99 8.89 3.6 Strategy, the Innovation Union flagship initiative and Smart Specialisation
to the EPO strategies” (ERRIN, 2018).
ICT patent Unmatched 66.41 16.43 49.98 14.63 3.42
Lastly, ICLEI is a global network of city comprising more than 1500
applications ATT 56.69 14.31 42.38 12.92 3.28
to the EPO
members, whose main focus lies in the sustainable development of
Smart City patent Unmatched 5.47 4.56 0.91 0.38 2.41 urban areas. “ICLEI provides technical consulting, training and information
applications ATT 5.37 4.45 0.92 0.49 1.88 services to build capacity, share knowledge and support local government in
to the EPO the implementation of sustainable development at the local level. Our basic
premise is that locally designed and driven initiatives can provide an effective
and cost-efficient way to achieve local, national and global sustainability
objectives” (ICLEI, 2018).
.8
9
A. Caragliu, C.F. Del Bo Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
10
A. Caragliu, C.F. Del Bo Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx
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online on Dec. 11, 2017 at the URL. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/ Andrea Caragliu is tenured Assistant Professor (RTDb) of Regional and Urban Economics
PDF/?uri=CELEX:32012L0027&from=EN. at Politecnico di Milano. He has been guest researcher in Regional and Urban Economics
European Parliament, 2014. “Mapping Smart Cities in the EU”, Directorate General for at VU University Amsterdam. He holds a PhD in Spatial Economics, VU University
Internal Policies, Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy. Retrieved on Amsterdam, and a PhD in Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering,
line from. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/etudes/join/2014/ Politecnico di Milano. The dissertation has been awarded the Merit Prize of the EU
507480/IPOLTRE_ET(2014)507480_EN.pdf. Committee of the Regions Prize for the Best Doctoral Dissertation and Diploma d'Onore
European Regions Research and Innovation Network, 2018. About us. retrieved online on AISRe for the best doctoral dissertation in Regional Science “Giorgio Leonardi” 2010. He
Apr. 27, 2018 at the URL. https://www.errin.eu/content/about-us. also holds a Master's degree and Bachelor's Degree both in Economics at Bocconi
EUROSTAT, 2016. Eurostat indicators on high-tech industry and knowledge – intensive University in Milan (2005 and 2003, respectively).
services. Annex 6 – high-tech aggregation by patents. retrieved online on Dec. 14,
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He has been Auditor (2013–2016) of the Italian Regional Science Association (AISRe),
EUROSTAT, 2017a. Metropolitan regions. retrieved online on Dec. 17, 2017 at the URL.
and he is member of the European Regional Science Association (ERSA) and American
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/metropolitan-regions.
Economic Association (AEA).
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He serves as Book Review Editor for Papers in Regional Science and is Co-editor (with
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Graham Clarke) of the Newsletter of the Regional Science Association International.
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Glaeser, E.L., Kolko, J., Saiz, A., 2001. Consumer city. J. Econ. Geogr. 1 (1), 27–50.
GSMA, 2013. Guide to smart cities: the opportunity for mobile operators. retrieved online He has published on various international refereed Journals.
on Dec. 15, 2017 at the URL. https://www.gsma.com/iot/wp-content/uploads/
2013/02/cl_sc_guide_wp_02_131.pdf. Chiara F. Del Bo earned a PhD in Economics from Università degli Studi di Milano, with
Hoover Jr., E.M., 1936. The measurement of industrial localization. Rev. Econ. Stat. 18 the dissertation “Essays on Investment and Growth in an International Setting”. She has
(4), 162–171. been a visiting researcher at the Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit,
ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, 2018. Frequently Asked Questions. re- Amsterdam and a visiting scholar at the Economics Department of Boston College, USA.
trieved online on Apr. 27, 2018 at the URL. http://www.iclei.org/about/who-is-iclei/ She also holds a Master degree in Economics (MEc) at Università Commerciale Luigi
faq.html. Bocconi and graduated in Economics at Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano with
Intellectual Property Office, 2014. Eight Great Technologies. The Internet of Things: A a dissertation on “Research Joint Ventures in the semiconductor industry”. Her research
Patent Overview. retrieved online on Nov. 21, 2017 at the URL. https://www.gov. interests are in public economics, with an additional focus on regional and international
uk/government/publications/new-eight-great-technologies-internet-of-things. issues.
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