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Macroeconomics – The study of the economy as a whole, addresses many topical issues:
o What is the government budget deficit?
o How does it affect the economy?
o Why does the Philippines have such a huge trade deficit?
o Why are so many countries poor?
o What policies might help them grow out of poverty?
Understanding Macroeconomics
We will use the circular flow of output and income between the business and household
sectors to illustrate macro-economic inter-relationships.
Macroeconomic Concerns
Macroeconomics considers the performance of the economy as a whole.
We try to understand changes in
o The rate of economic growth (Output growth)
o The rate of inflation or deflation
o Unemployment
o Our trade performance with other countries
Macroeconomics also includes an evaluation of the relative success or failure of government
economic policies.
Economic Growth
Unemployment
➢ The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.
➢ The unemployment rate is a key indicator of economy’s health.
➢ The existence of unemployment seems to imply that the aggregate labor market is not in
equilibrium. Why do labor markets not clear when other markets do?
Keynes arguments:
o The level of output and employment in an economy is determined by the aggregate
demand (AD)
o Governments could intervene in the economy and affect the level of output and
employment.
Two important objectives of macroeconomics policies:
o Sustained growth in GDP
o Price Stability
The U.S. Economy Since 1970
Inflation
We measure the inflation rate as the percentage change in the average level of prices or
the price level.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) – is a common measure of the price level used to
calculate inflation.
An alternative measure of inflation, called “core inflation” uses the CPI in its construction,
except the price index used to construct core inflation does not include any food or energy prices
(which tend to be fairly volatile).
Inflation in the United
States
o Inflation rate in the
United States since 1961.
o Inflation was low
during the 1960s.
o Inflation increased
during the 1970s.
o Inflation was lowered
in two waves during the
1980s and 1990s.
Unemployment
o Unemployment is a state in which a person does not have a job but is available for work,
willing to work, and has made some effort to find work within the previous four weeks.
o The labor force is the total number of people who are employed and unemployed.
o The unemployment rate is the percentage of the people in the labor force who are
unemployed, key indicator of economy’s health.
o A discourage worker is a person who is available for work, willing to work, but who has
given up the effort to find work.
Economic Growth
➢ Economists monitor economic growth
o By keeping track of real gross domestic product (real GDP)
o Total quantity of goods and services produced in a country over a year.
➢ Although output has grown, rate of growth has varied over the decades
➢ Over long periods of time small differences in growth rates can cause huge difference in
living standards
➢ Economists and government officials are very concerned when economic growth slows
down
➢ Macroeconomics helps us understand a number of issues surrounding economic growth
➢ Countries with the highest overall economic standard of living have the freest markets
(more elements of capitalism).
o Examples: Hong Kong, the United States, Japan, Taiwan, Great Britain, Canada,
Sweden, South Korea, and Singapore.
o
Economic Growth and Fluctuations
➢ Potential GDP is the value of real GDP when all the economy’s labour, capital, land, and
entrepreneurial ability are fully employed.
➢ During the 1970s and early 1980s, real GDP growth slowed – a productivity growth
slowdown.
Functions of an Economy
An economy is a complex arrangements of many different buyers and sellers – households,
businesses, government, and the rest of the world – and of their interactions with each other.
An economy employs various resources to produce a variety of goods and services for
domestic and world consumption, and provides income for the resources.
➢ Households and the government purchase goods and services (demand) from firms in the
goods-and-services market, and firms supply to the goods and services market.
➢ In the labor market, firms and government purchase (demand) labor from households
(supply).
o The total supply of labor in the economy depends on the sum of decisions made by
households.
o In the money market—sometimes called the financial market—households purchase
stocks and bonds from firms.
Households supply funds to this market in the expectation of earning income, and also
demand (borrow) funds from this market.
Firms, government, and the rest of the world also engage in borrowing and lending,
coordinated by financial institutions.
Financial Instruments
o Treasury bonds, notes, and bills are promissory notes issued by the federal government
when it borrows money.
o Corporate Bonds are promissory notes issued by corporations when they borrow money.
o Shares of stock are financial instruments that give to the holder a share in the firm’s
ownership and therefore the right to share in the firm’s profits.
o Dividends are the portion of a firm’s profits that the firm pays out each period to its
shareholders.
Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand
o Aggregate demand is the total demand for goods and services in an economy.
o Aggregate supply is the total supply of goods and services in an economy.
o Aggregate supply and demand curves are more complex than simple market supply and
demand curves.
What are the Government’s Main Economic Objectives?
o Low inflation
o Steady and sustained growth
o High levels of employment
o Improvements in living standards
Main Objectives of Government Economic Policy
o The key elements of the Government strategy are:
o Delivering macroeconomic stability (a very broad macroeconomic aim)
o Meeting the productivity challenge ( an important supply-side target)
o Increasing employment opportunity fo all (a labour market objective)
o Ensuring fairness for families and communities (commitment to equity)
o Protecting the environment ( green economics has a macroeconomic dimension)
o The income approach: A method of computing GDP that measures the income—wages,
rents, interest, and profits – received by all factors of production in producing final goods.
Net Exports
➢ Net exports (EX – IM) is the difference between exports and imports. The figure can be
positive or negative.
o Exports (EX) are sales to foreigners of domestic goods and services.
o Imports (IM) are purchases of goods and services from abroad.
Using the base year to compute real GDP is called “fixed weight procedure” because the weights
are the prices
❖ Example: real GDP in year 1 is $12.10 (column 5) and real GDP in year 2 is $15.10 (column
6).
❖ Recall, that both columns use year 1 prices and that nominal and real GDP are the same in
year 1 because year 1 is the base year.
❖ GDP has increased from $12.10 to $15.10, an increase of 24.8 percent [15.1 – 12.1 / 12.1]
x 100.
Using the fixed-weight procedure and year 2 as the base year, i.e., using year 2 prices as the weights
❖ Real GDP in year 1 is $18.40 (column 7) and real GDP in year 2 is $19.20 (column 8).
Note that both columns use year 2 prices and that nominal and real GDP are the same in
year 2 because year 2 is the base year. Real GDP has increased from $18.40 to $19.20, an
increase of 4.3 percent.
❖ Shows that growth rates can be sensitive to the choice of the base year – 24.8 percent using
year 1 prices as weights and 4.3 percent using year 2 prices as weights.
❖ BEA procedure simply picked one year as the base year and did all the calculations using
the prices in that year as weights.
The new BEA procedure makes two changes:
❖ take the average of the two years’ price changes, between 24.8 percent and 4.3 percent
which is 14.55 percent [24.8 + 4.3 / 2]
❖ The second BEA change is to use years 1 and 2 as the base years when computing the
percentage change between years 1 and 2, then use years 2 and 3 as the base years when
computing the percentage change between years 2 and 3, and so on.
GDP Deflator
➢ The GDP deflator is one measure of the overall price level.
➢ Overall price increases can be sensitive to the choice of the base year. For this reason, using
fixed-price weights to compute real GDP has some problems.
If we are interested in how the overall price level changes, we need to weight the individual prices
in some way
❖ The “bundle” price in year 1 is $12.10 (column 5) and the bundle price in year 2 is $18.40
(column 7). Both columns use year 1 quantities. The bundle price has increased from
$12.10 to $18.40, an increase of 52.1 percent.
❖ Use the year 2 as the base year, which means using year 2 quantities as the weights. Then
the bundle price in year 1 is $15.10 (column 6), and the bundle price in year 2 is $19.20
(column 8). Both columns use year 2 quantities. The bundle price has increased from
$15.10 to $19.20, an increase of 27.2 percent.
❖ Take the average and you get 39.65%.
❖ The series of percentage changes computed this way is taken to be the series of percentage
changes in the GDP deflator, that is, a series of inflation rates.
Social Consequences
➢ The costs of unemployment are neither evenly distributed across the population nor easily
quantified.
➢ The social consequences of the Depression of the 1930s are perhaps the hardest to
comprehend. Few emerged from this period unscathed.
➢ At the bottom were the poor and the fully unemployed, about 25 percent of the labor force.
Even those who kept their jobs found themselves working part-time.
➢ Many people lost all or part of their savings as the stock market crashed and thousands of
banks failed.
➢ Producer Price Indexes (PPIs) – Measures of prices that producers receive for products
at all stages in the production process.
o The indexes are calculated separately for various stages in the production process.
o The three main categories are finished goods, intermediate materials, and crude
materials, although there are subcategories within each of these categories.
Long-Run Growth
➢ Output growth – The growth rate of the output of the entire economy.
➢ Per-capita output growth – The growth rate of output per person in the economy.
➢ Productivity growth – The growth rate of output per worker.