You are on page 1of 37

'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV$6WDWHRIWKH$UW

90LKDMORYLF03HWNRYLF
&RPSXWHU6FLHQFH'HSDUWPHQW
8QLYHUVLW\RI7ZHQWH
7KH1HWKHUODQGV
^YRMNDQPLODQ`#FVXWZHQWHQO

$EVWUDFW

2QH RI WKH HYROYLQJ DUHDV WKDW ZRXOG FHUWDLQO\ RFFXS\ FRPSXWHU VFLHQWLVWV LQ WKH QH[W GHFDGH LV FRQFHUQHG ZLWK EXLOGLQJ
VRIWZDUHZKLFKZLOOEHDEOHWRPDNHFRQFOXVLRQVEDVHGRQLQIRUPDWLRQJDWKHUHGIURPYDULRXVVRXUFHV,QWHUHVWLQJSDWKWRWKH
VROXWLRQRIWKLVSUREOHPZRXOGEHWRVLPXODWHUHDVRQLQJSURFHVVRIKXPDQVEDVHGRQWKHLUDELOLW\WRVHQVHWKHHQYLURQPHQWLQ
PXOWLSOHZD\VDQGWRLQWHJUDWHWKHVHVHQVHGLQIRUPDWLRQLQRQHJOREDOSLFWXUHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQW

+XPDQ EHLQJV DV ZHOO DV WKH RWKHU DQLPDOV LQWHJUDWH REVHUYDWLRQV UHFHLYHG IURP PXOWLSOH VHQVHV WR FRPSUHKHQG WKH
HQYLURQPHQWDQGWRWDNHSURSHUDFWLRQV3UREDELOLW\WKHRU\WKXVZKLWLWVLQKHUHQWQRWLRQVRIXQFHUWDLQW\DQGFRQILGHQFHKDG
IRXQG ZLGHVSUHDG SRSXODULW\ LQ WKH PXOWLVHQVRU IXVLRQ FRPPXQLW\ 9DULRXV UHVHDUFKHUV KDG SURSRVHG PDQ\ GLIIHUHQW
SUREDELOLVWLFPRGHOVIRUWKLVSXUSRVH

,Q WKLV UHSRUW ZH ZLOO EH HVSHFLDOO\ LQWHUHVWHG LQ %1V DQG WKHLU H[WHQVLRQV WKDW WU\ WR XQLI\ WHPSRUDO GLPHQVLRQ ZLWK
XQFHUWDLQW\ :H VWDUW ZLWK WKH VLPSOH FRQFHSWV DQG WKHQ LQWURGXFH VWDWLF %D\HVLDQ QHWZRUNV DV ZHOO DV EDVLFV RI G\QDPLF
%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNVDVSRZHUIXOWRROVIRUUHSUHVHQWLQJVXFKXQFHUWDLQHYHQWV'LIIHUHQWOHYHOVLQFUHDWLQJ'%1VDUHSUHVHQWHG
1H[W ZH VXUYH\ YDULRXV G\QDPLF PRGHOV DQG GHVFULEH VRPH XVHIXO FRPSXWLQJ WHFKQLTXHV IRU WKHVH PRGHOV DV ZHOO DV
YDULRXVSUREOHPVWKDWDULVHLQWKHVHFRPSXWDWLRQV

,QWURGXFWLRQ
+RZFRQILGHQWFDQEHRQHVLPSOHLQIRUPDWLRQWKDWZHUHFHLYHIURPRXUVHQVHV"&DQZHVD\WKDWOHDIVDUHJUHHQ"0D\EHDOO
WKHOHDYHVZHVDZZHUHJUHHQEXWLWGRHVQRWPHDQWKDWWKLVLVKXQGUHGSHUFHQWFDVH"0D\EHOHDIVORRNWRXVDVWKH\DUHJUHHQ
GXHWRDYLHZLQJDQJOHRUWR6XQSRVLWLRQ+RZHYHUZHKDYHDORWRI³PD\EHV´KHUH:KDWDUHZHJRLQJWRGRZLWKWKHP"
:HKDYHWRILQGDSSURSULDWHWRRODEOHWRUHSUHVHQWYDULRXVVRXUFHVRIVXFKXQFHUWDLQLQIRUPDWLRQWKDWGHVFULEHRXUSUREOHP
DQGWRMRLQWKHPLQWRRQHLQIHUHQFHV\VWHP7KLVWRROVKRXOGEHDEOHWRUHSUHVHQWGHJUHHRIXQFHUWDLQW\LHWKHSUREDELOLW\RI
VRPHREMHFWVRUHYHQWVDQGLQIOXHQFHVWKDWH[LVWVEHWZHHQWKHVHREMHFWVRUHYHQWV

$FFRUGLQJ WR >@ ZH FDQ GHDO ZLWK XQFHUWDLQW\ LQ WZR ZD\V H[WHQVLRQDOO\ DQG LQWHQVLRQDOO\ ([WHQVLRQDO V\VWHPV DOVR
FDOOHGUXOHEDVHGV\VWHPV DUHJHQHUDOO\FRPSXWDWLRQDOO\HIILFLHQWEXWWKHLUXQFHUWDLQW\PHDVXUHVDUHVHPDQWLFDOO\ZHDN2Q
WKHFRQWUDU\LQWHQVLRQDOV\VWHPVDUHJHQHUDOO\FRPSXWDWLRQDOO\H[SHQVLYHDQGVHPDQWLFDOO\VWURQJ,QSUREDELOLVWLFUHDVRQLQJ
UDQGRP YDULDEOHV DUH XVHG WR UHSUHVHQW HYHQWV DQGRU REMHFWV LQ WKH ZRUOG %\ DVVLJQLQJ YDULRXV YDOXHV WR WKHVH UDQGRP
YDULDEOHVZHFDQPRGHOWKHFXUUHQWVWDWHRIWKHZRUOGDQGZHLJKWWKHVWDWHVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHMRLQWSUREDELOLWLHV

9DULRXV UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH SURSRVHG PDQ\ GLIIHUHQW SUREDELOLVWLF PRGHOV IRU WKLV SXUSRVH $FFRUGLQJ WR >@ SUREDELOLVWLF
PRGHOV FDQ EH FODVVLILHG LQWR IRXU EURDG FDWHJRULHV %D\HVLDQ UHDVRQLQJ HYLGHQFH WKHRU\ UREXVW VWDWLVWLFV DQG UHFXUVLYH
RSHUDWRUV7KHTXHVWLRQLVZKDWFDWHJRU\LVPRUHDSSURSULDWHIRURXUGRPDLQRILQWHUHVW

,IZHFRQVLGHUDERYHPHQWLRQHGSUREDELOLWLHVDQGXQFHUWDLQW\WKLVZLOOOHDGXVWRWKHXVHRI%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV %1V IX]]\


ORJLF+LGGHQ0DUNRY0RGHOV +00V RUVRPHRWKHUWHFKQLTXHV+RZHYHU%1VEULQJWKHPRVWDSSURSULDWHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
RI UHODWLYH LQIOXHQFHV DPRQJ UHDO ZRUOG IDFWV 7KLV LV PDLQ UHDVRQ ZK\ %1V DUH XVHG IRU VROYLQJ VXFK SUREOHPV ZLWK
XQFHUWDLQW\%1VKDVEHHQNQRZQLQWKHILHOGRI$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH $, DQGH[SORLWHGLQGLIIHUHQWH[SHUWV\VWHPVWRPRGHO
FRPSOH[ LQWHUDFWLRQ DPRQJ FDXVHV DQG FRQVHTXHQFHV DV LW LV VWDWHG LQ >@ +RZHYHU %D\HVLDQ UHDVRQLQJ DQG LQIHUHQFH
SURFHGXUHVKDYHRQO\UHFHQWO\JDLQHGSRSXODULW\LQIXVLRQRILQIRUPDWLRQREWDLQHGIURPGLIIHUHQWVRXUFHV

7KHVHSUREOHPVRIXQFHUWDLQW\DUHDVZHOOSUHVHQWLQFRPSXWHUUHDVRQLQJ2QHRIWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQWDVNVWKDWIRUPWKHEDVHRI
FRPSXWHU UHDVRQLQJ LV UHFRJQLWLRQ RI WHPSRUDO DQG VSDWLDO SDWWHUQV RI GDWD SUHVHQWHG LQ WKH JURZLQJ PXOWLPHGLD FRPSXWHU
GDWDEDVHV$WDILUVWJODQFHWKLVZRXOGOHDGXVWRWKHILHOGRISDWWHUQUHFRJQLWLRQ+RZHYHUSDWWHUQUHFRJQLWLRQWHFKQLTXHVFDQ
RQO\SURGXFHXQFHUWDLQFRQFOXVLRQVDERXWGRPDLQ(YHQWKRXJKVRPHYDULDELOLW\LQGDWDSDWWHUQVH[LVWVLWFDQEHVXIILFLHQWO\
ZHOOGHVFULEHGLQWKHSUREDELOLVWLFIUDPHZRUN:LWKLQWKHIUDPHZRUNRIVWDWLVWLFDOSDWWHUQUHFRJQLWLRQGLIIHUHQWDSSURDFKHVRI
VSDWLRWHPSRUDO DQDO\VLV DQG LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ KDYH EHHQ VWXGLHG IRU GHFDGHV +LGGHQ 0DUNRY 0RGHOV +00V  KDYH EHHQ
ZLGHO\ XVHG IRU WDVNV RI GHVFULELQJ WLPH YDU\LQJ SDWWHUQV 7KH\ DUH SDUWLFXODUO\ VXFFHVVIXO LQ WKH DUHD RI PRGHOOLQJ DQG
UHFRJQLWLRQRIVSRNHQODQJXDJH

$V IRU D WHPSRUDO SRLQW RI YLHZ %D\HVLDQ QHWZRUNV %1V  EURXJKW D GLIIHUHQW DSSURDFK LQ DWWHPSW WR PRGHO HYHQWV WKDW
LQFOXGH ERWK WHPSRUDO DQG DPELHQW DVSHFW WLPHVHULHV PRGHOOLQJ  7KLV QHZ WRRO IRU WLPHVHULHV PRGHOOLQJ LV NQRZQ DV D
'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUN '%1 ,WZDVDOVRVKRZQWKDWWKHVXFFHVVIXO+00VDUHMXVWDVSHFLDOFDVHRIG\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ
QHWZRUNV 5HJDUGLQJ WR WKLV LVVXH LW LV QDWXUDO DQG WHPSWLQJ WR H[SORUH DQG GLVVHFW %1V DQG '%1V IRU LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI
FRPSXWHU¶VVRXUFHVRILQIRUPDWLRQ WH[WYLGHRDQGDXGLRGDWD 

7KLVUHSRUWZLOOEHRUJDQL]HGDVIROORZV,QVHFWLRQZHZLOOJLYHEDVLFLVVXHVDERXWXQFHUWDLQW\DQGWLPHDVZHOODVSRVVLEOH
ZD\V WR LQFRUSRUDWH WKHP LQWR RQH VFKHPD 7KHQ ZH ZLOO LQWURGXFH %D\HVLDQ QHWZRUNV G\QDPLF %D\HVLDQ QHWZRUNV DQG
VRPHEDVLFWHFKQLTXHVWKDWIRUPSRZHUIXOEDVHIRUSHUIRUPLQJYDULRXVFDOFXODWLRQV$WWKHHQGRIWKLVVHFWLRQZHZLOOSUHVHQW
GLIIHUHQWOHYHOVRIFUHDWLQJG\QDPLF%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNV,QVHFWLRQZHZLOOJLYHKLVWRULFDOUHYLHZRILQFRUSRUDWLRQRIWLPH
LQWR%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNVDQGH[SODLQPRUHSUHFLVHO\LPSRUWDQWPRGHOV,QVHFWLRQZHZLOOGHVFULEHEDVLFSUREOHPVWKDWKDYH
WREHVROYHGIRUHIILFLHQWDSSOLFDWLRQRIG\QDPLF%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNVWKDWGHSLFWRQHSDUWLFXODUUHDOZRUOGSUREOHP

%DVLF&RQFHSWV
7RH[SODLQWKHUROHRI%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNVDQGG\QDPLF%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNVLQUHDVRQLQJZLWKXQFHUWDLQW\ZHZLOOVWDUWIURP
WKH EDVLF LVVXHV DQG HOHPHQWV 7KHQ ZH ZLOO SUHVHQW PRUH FRPSOH[ VWUXFWXUHV DQG WHFKQLTXHV LQYROYHG LQ WKHVH QHWZRUNV
7KHUHIRUHLQWKHVHTXHOZHZLOOJLYHEULHIGHVFULSWLRQRIWHUPVDQGFRQFHSWVXVHGIRUGHVFULELQJDQGH[SODLQLQJ%1VVWUXFWXUH
DQGSDUDPHWHUV&RQVHTXHQWO\ZHZLOOSUHVHQWFRQFHSWVRI%1VDQG'%1VDQGVXUYH\GLIIHUHQWOHYHOVRIFUHDWLQJ'%1V

7HUPLQRORJ\

)LUVWZHZLOOJLYHVRPHWHUPVDQGGHILQLWLRQVIUHTXHQWO\XVHGLQ%1VWHUPLQRORJ\'HILQLWLRQVDUHVLPSOLILHGDQGJLYHQLQD
GHVFULSWLYHDQGQRWH[DFWD[LRPDWLFIRUPIRUWKHSXUSRVHRIHQDEOLQJOHVVHGXFDWHGSHUVRQVWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHPHDQLQJDQGWKH
SRZHURIWKLVNLQGRIQHWZRUNVWUXFWXUH

$JUDSKLFDOPRGHOLVDWRROWKDWLVXVHGWRYLVXDOO\LOOXVWUDWHDQGZRUNZLWKFRQGLWLRQDOLQGHSHQGHQFHDPRQJYDULDEOHVLQD
JLYHQSUREOHP>@$JUDSKLVFRPSRVHGRIDVHWRIQRGHV ZKLFKLQJUDSKLFDOPRGHOVUHSUHVHQWYDULDEOHV DQGDVHWRIHGJHV
7KH\FDQEHDOVRWHUPHGDVYHUWLFHVDQGDUFVUHVSHFWLYHO\(DFKHGJHLQWHUODFHVWZRQRGHVDQGDQHGJHFDQKDYHDQRSWLRQDO
GLUHFWLRQDVVLJQHGWRLWVRLWFDQEHRULHQWHGRUQRW

$FKDLQFRQVLVWVRIDVHULHVRIQRGHVZKHUHHDFKVXFFHVVLYHQRGHLQWKHFKDLQLVFRQQHFWHGWRWKHSUHYLRXVRQHE\DQHGJH$
SDWK LV D FKDLQ ZKHUH HDFK FRQQHFWLQJHGJHLQWKHFKDLQKDVDGLUHFWLRQDOLW\JRLQJLQWKHVDPHGLUHFWLRQDVWKHFKDLQ7KLV
SURSHUW\LVIODYRXURIGLJUDSKV GLUHFWHGJUDSKV 7KHF\FOHLVDSDWKWKDWVWDUWVDQGHQGVDWWKHVDPHQRGH$VLPSOHSDWKLVD
SDWKZKHUHHDFKQRGHLV³YLVLWHG´RQO\RQFH$VLPSOHF\FOHLVDF\FOHZKHUHDOOQRGHVDUHXQLTXHH[FHSWIRUWKHVWDUWQRGH
DQGHQGQRGH$'LUHFWHG$F\FOLF*UDSKRU'$*LVDGLUHFWHGJUDSKWKDWKDVQRF\FOHV

7KHHGJHLQ'$*SRLQWVIURPRQHQRGHFDOOHGSDUHQWQRGHWRWKHRWKHUFDOOHGFKLOGQRGH,I ; LVWKHSDUHQWRI ;  DQG


;   LV WKH SDUHQW RI ;   WKHQ ;  LV DQ DQFHVWRU RI ;   DQG ;   LV D GHVFHQGDQW RI ;  $ IDPLO\ LV WKH VHW RI QRGHV
FRPSRVHGRI;DQGWKHSDUHQWVRI;7KHWHUPDGMDFHQWRUDQHLJKERXULVXVHGWRGHVFULEHWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWZRQRGHV
FRQQHFWHGE\DQXQGLUHFWHGHGJH

$IRUHVWLVD'$*ZKHUHHDFKQRGHKDVHLWKHURQHSDUHQWRUQRQHDWDOO$WUHHLVDIRUHVWZKHUHRQO\RQHQRGH URRWQRGH KDV


QRSDUHQWVDQGHYHU\RWKHUQRGHKDVH[DFWO\RQHSDUHQW$PRUDOJUDSKLVPDGHIURPD'$*E\FRQQHFWLQJWKHSDUHQWVRI
HDFK QRGH ,W PHDQV WKDW ZH DGG DQ XQGLUHFWHG HGJH EHWZHHQ HDFK SDUHQW QRGH DQG DIWHU GRLQJ WKLV ZH UHPRYH WKH
GLUHFWLRQDOLW\IURPDOORIWKHRULJLQDOHGJHVUHVXOWLQJLQXQGLUHFWHGJUDSK

$ FKRUG LV DQ HGJH WKDW GRHV QRW DSSHDU LQ WKH SDWK EXW ZKLFK LV EHWZHHQ WZR QRGHV WKDW RFFXU LQ WKH JUDSK 7KH WHUP
FKRUGOHVV LV XVHG WR UHSUHVHQW D VLPSOH SDWK RU F\FOH  IRU ZKLFK QR FKRUG H[LVWV 7KH WHUP WULDQJXODWHG GHVFULEHV DQ
XQGLUHFWHGJUDSKZKHUHDQ\VLPSOHF\FOHWKDWFRQVLVWVRIDWOHDVWIRXUQRGHVDOVRKDVDWOHDVWRQHFKRUG

7KHWHUPFRPSOHWHGHVFULEHVDQXQGLUHFWHGJUDSKZKHUHHYHU\QRGHLVFRQQHFWHGWRDOORWKHUQRGHVLQWKHJUDSK$FOLTXHLVD
VXEVHWRIQRGHVZKLFKLVFRPSOHWHDQGFDQQRWEHPDGHDQ\ODUJHUGHWDLQLQJWKHVWDWHRIFRPSOHWHQHVV$MRLQWUHHLVD'$*
WKDWKDVEHHQPRUDOL]HGDQGWULDQJXODWHGDQGDIWHUWKDWKDGLWVFOLTXHVWUDQVIRUPHGWRWKHQRGHVRIDWUHH

$WWKHHQGZHZLOOQRWHVRPHSURSHUWLHVWKDWGHVFULEH%1VDVDW\SHRI'$*
 
1RGH;LQDQXQGLUHFWHGSDWKKDVFRQYHUJLQJDUURZVLILWLVDFKLOGRIERWKWKHSUHYLRXVDQGWKHIROORZLQJQRGHVLQWKHSDWK,I
LWLVDFKLOGRIDSUHYLRXVDQGDSDUHQWRIWKHQH[WQRGHWKHQQRGH;KDVVHULDODUURZV,IQRGH;LVSDUHQWRIERWKWKHSUHYLRXV
DQGWKHIROORZLQJQRGHVLQDQXQGLUHFWHGSDWKLWKDVGLYHUJLQJDUURZV

(DFK QRGH LQ WKH QHWZRUN LV FRQGLWLRQDOO\ LQGHSHQGHQW IURP LWV QRQGHVFHQGDQWV JLYHQ LWV SDUHQWV $ VHW RI QRGHV $ LV
FRQGLWLRQDOO\ LQGHSHQGHQW RI DQRWKHU GLVMRLQW  VHW % JLYHQ VHW & LI & GVHSDUDWHV $ DQG % ,I ; < DQG = DUH WUHH GLVMRLQW
VXEVHWRIQRGHVLQ'$*WKDQ=LVVDLGWRGVHSDUDWH;IURP<LIWKHUHLVQRSDWKEHWZHHQDQRGHLQ;DQGDQRGHLQ<DORQJ
ZKLFK WKH IROORZLQJ WZR FRQGLWLRQV KROG   HYHU\ QRGH ZLWK FRQYHUJLQJ DUURZV LV LQ = RU KDVDGHVFHQGDQWLQ=DQG  
HYHU\RWKHUQRGHLVRXWVLGH=>@

6LQFHWKHUHH[LVWVODUJHDPRXQWRIDEEUHYLDWLRQVXVHGLQWKHZRUNZHZLOOOLVWDOORIWKHPEHORZ
/LVWRIDEEUHYLDWLRQV
$$3 $FXWH$EGRPLQDO3DLQ
$, $UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH
%%1V %D\HVLDQ%HOLHI1HWZRUNV
%,& %D\HVLDQ,QIRUPDWLRQ&ULWHULRQ
%1V %D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV
&, &RQGLWLRQDO,QGHSHQGHQFH
&3' &RQGLWLRQDO3UREDELOLW\'LVWULEXWLRQ
&3K &RQGLWLRQDO3KDVHW\SH
&37 &RQGLWLRQDO3UREDELOLW\7DEOH
'$* 'LUHFWHG$F\FOLF*UDSK
'%%1V '\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ%HOLHI1HWZRUNV
'%1V '\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV
'''%1 'XUDWLRQ'HQVLW\'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV
'31V '\QDPLF3UREDELOLVWLF1HWZRUNV
()'%1 (UURU)HHGEDFN'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV
(0 ([SHFWDWLRQ0D[LPL]DWLRQ
*(0 *HQHUDOL]HG([SHFWDWLRQ0D[LPL]DWLRQ
+00V +LGGHQ0DUNRYPRGHOV
/'6 /LQHDU'\QDPLF6\VWHPV
0$3 0D[LPXP$3RVWHULRU
0'/ 0LQLPXP'HVFULSWLRQ/HQJWK
0, 0XWXDO,QIRUPDWLRQ
0/ 0D[LPXP/LNHOLKRRG
06(0 0RGHO6HOHFWLRQ([SHFWDWLRQ0D[LPL]DWLRQ
SGI 3UREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQ
3K 3KDVHW\SH
31V 3UREDELOLVWLFQHWZRUNV
371V 3UREDELOLVWLF7HPSRUDO1HWZRUNV
6(0 6WUXFWXUDO([SHFWDWLRQ0D[LPL]DWLRQ
6)6$ 6WRFKDVWLF)LQLWH6WDWH$XWRPDWD
7$3 7HPSRUDO$EGXFWLRQ3UREOHP
7%1 7HPSRUDO%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV

 
%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV

3UREDELOLVWLFQHWZRUNV 31V DOVRNQRZQDV%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNV %1V RUEHOLHIQHWZRUNVRUFDXVDOQHWZRUNVDUHDOUHDG\ZHOO


HVWDEOLVKHGDVUHSUHVHQWDWLRQVRIGRPDLQVLQYROYLQJXQFHUWDLQUHODWLRQVDPRQJDJURXSRIUDQGRPYDULDEOHV,QWKLVZRUNZH
ZLOO XVH WHUP %D\HVLDQ QHWZRUNV IRU WKLV W\SH RI SUREDELOLVWLF VFKHPD EHFDXVH LW LV XVHG LQ PRVW RI WKH SDSHUV LQ $,
FRPPXQLW\

=

; <

)LJXUH$JUDSKLFDOPRGHOLOOXVWUDWLQJFRQGLWLRQDOLQGHSHQGHQFHEHWZHHQYDULDEOHV;DQG<JLYHQWKHYDULDEOH=
$%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNLVDVSHFLILFW\SHRIJUDSKLFDOPRGHOWKDWLVUHSUHVHQWHGDVD'LUHFWHG$F\FOLF*UDSK1RGHVLQ'$*DUH
JUDSKLFDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIREMHFWVDQGHYHQWVWKDWH[LVWVLQWKHUHDOZRUOGDQGDUHXVXDOO\WHUPHGYDULDEOHVRUVWDWHV&DXVDO
UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ QRGHV DUH UHSUHVHQWHG GUDZLQJ DQ DUF HGJH  EHWZHHQ WKHP )RU DQ\ JLYHQ HGJH EHWZHHQ WKH YDULDEOHV
QRGHV ;  DQG ;   LI WKHUH LV D FDXVDO UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH YDULDEOHV WKH HGJH ZLOO EH GLUHFWLRQDO OHDGLQJ IURP WKH
FDXVHYDULDEOHWRWKHHIIHFWYDULDEOH)LJXUHLOOXVWUDWHVKRZ;DQG<DUHFRQGLWLRQDOO\LQGHSHQGHQWJLYHQYDULDEOH=+HUH
ZHKDYHWRQRWLFHWKDWWKLVLVQRWWKHVDPHDVVD\LQJWKDW;DQG<DUHWRWDOO\LQGHSHQGHQW

)RUHDFKYDULDEOHLQWKH'$*WKHUHLVSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQ SGI ZKLFKGLPHQVLRQVDQGGHILQLWLRQGHSHQGVRQWKH


HGJHV OHDGLQJ LQWR WKH YDULDEOH ,Q VKRUW D JUDSKLFDO PRGHO FRQVLVWV RI YDULDEOHV QRGHV  9 ^«N` ZLWK D VHW ' RI
GHSHQGHQFLHV HGJHV EHWZHHQWKHYDULDEOHVDQGVHW3RISUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQVIRUHDFKYDULDEOH

%1V FDQ EH GHILQHG DV D VSHFLDO FDVH RI PRUH JHQHUDO FODVV FDOOHG JUDSKLFDO PRGHOV LQ ZKLFK QRGHV UHSUHVHQW UDQGRP
YDULDEOHV DQG WKH ODFN RI DUF UHSUHVHQWV FRQGLWLRQDO LQGHSHQGHQFH DVVXPSWLRQV EHWZHHQ YDULDEOHV )LJXUH  LOOXVWUDWHV D
VLPSOH%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUN


=



; <

)LJXUH6LPSOH%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUN


3UREDELOLW\WKHRU\LVEDVHGRQWKUHHEDVLFD[LRPV

  ˆ 3 ; ˆ  
 3 ; LIDQGRQO\LI;LVFHUWDLQDQG
 ,I;DQG<DUHPXWXDOO\H[FOXVLYHWKHQ 3 ; ¿ < = 3 ; + 3 < 

DQGDIXQGDPHQWDOUXOHRISUREDELOLW\FDOFXOXV

3 ;< 3 ;_< 3 <     

ZKHUH3 ;< LVWKHSUREDELOLW\RIWKHMRLQWHYHQW ; ¾ < 

7KDW EULQJV XV WR WKH %D\HV¶ UXOH IRU FRPSXWLQJ SRVWHULRU SUREDELOLW\ 3 ; _ <  JLYHQ WKH SULRU RQH 3 ;  DQG WKH
OLNHOLKRRG 3 < _ ; WKDW<ZLOOPDWHULDOL]HLI;LVWUXH

 
3 < _ ; 3 ;
3 ; _ < =   D 
3 <

+HUH;UHSUHVHQWK\SRWKHVLV<UHSUHVHQWVHYLGHQFHDQG 3 < GHQRWHVQRUPDOL]LQJIDFWRUZKLFKFDQEHGHWHUPLQHGE\

3 < = 3 < _ ; 3 ; + 3 < _ ½; 3 ½;  E 

ZKLFKFDQEHFRPSXWHGE\UHTXLULQJWKDW 3 ; _ < DQG 3 ½; _ < VXPWRXQLW\

,I;DQG<DUHFRQGLWLRQDOO\LQGHSHQGHQWRIHDFKRWKHUOLNHLQWKH)LJXUHZHFDQZULWHWKHIROORZLQJWHUP

3 ; _ =  < = 3 ; _ =   

%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNVFDQEHWKRXJKWRIDVDNQRZOHGJHEDVH>@ZKLFKH[SOLFLWO\UHSUHVHQWVRXUEHOLHIVDERXWWKHHOHPHQWVLQ
WKH V\VWHP DQG WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV WKDW H[LVW EHWZHHQ WKHVH YDULRXV HOHPHQWV RI WKH V\VWHP 7KH SXUSRVH RI VXFK NQRZOHGJH
EDVHLVWRLQIHUVRPHEHOLHIRUWRPDNHFRQFOXVLRQVDERXWVRPHSURFHVVHVRUHYHQWVLQWKHV\VWHP

:H FRXOG VD\ WKDW %1V RSHUDWH E\SURSDJDWLQJEHOLHIVWKURXJKRXWWKHQHWZRUNRQFHVRPHHYLGHQFHDERXWWKHH[LVWHQFHRI


FHUWDLQ HQWLWLHV FDQ EH DVVHUWHG :H DUH DEOH WR OHDUQ SUREDELOLWLHV RI DOO SDUWV LQ WKH V\VWHP JLYHQ RXU NQRZOHGJH RI WKH
H[LVWHQFHRIDIHZRIWKHPDQGWKHFRQGLWLRQDOUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQWKHP7KHVHFRQGLWLRQDOSUREDELOLWLHVGRQRWKDYHWREH
NQRZQDSULRU\DQGFDQEHOHDUQHGXVLQJVWDWLVWLFDOVDPSOLQJWHFKQLTXHVRUVXSHUYLVHGOHDUQLQJDSSURDFKHVDVZHZRXOGVHH
LQVHFWLRQ

,Q WKH VHTXHO ZHZLOOGHVFULEHVRPHJHQHUDOFRQFHSWVDQGWHFKQLTXHVXVHGIRUYDULRXVFDOFXODWLRQVWKDWDUHLQFOXGHGLQ%1


FRPSXWDWLRQVDQGLQWURGXFHVRPHWHUPVDQGGHILQLWLRQVWKDWIUHTXHQWO\SRSXSLQWKH%1

/HW¶VUHVXPHLQGHSHQGHQFH,IWKHUHLVDQDEVHQFHRIDOLQNEHWZHHQWZRYDULDEOHVWKDWLQGLFDWHVLQGHSHQGHQFHEHWZHHQWKHP
JLYHQWKDWWKHYDOXHVRIWKHLUSDUHQWVDUHNQRZQ7KHUHLVDOVRRQHUXOHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKLQGHSHQGHQFH,IDQRGHLVREVHUYHG
WKHQ LWV SDUHQWV EHFRPH GHSHQGHQW VLQFH WKH\ DUH ULYDO FDXVHV IRU H[SODLQLQJ WKH FKLOG¶V YDOXH 6XFK UXOH LV NQRZQ DV
H[SODLQLQJDZD\>@,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHQHWZRUNWRSRORJ\DQGIRUSXUSRVHVRISUHVHUYLQJWKHFRPSXWDWLRQDODELOLW\WKHSULRU
SUREDELOLW\RIHDFKVWDWHRIDURRWQRGHLVUHTXLUHG

%1VKDYHRQHLPSRUWDQWSURSHUW\WKDWWKHJUDSKFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGDVUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHMRLQWSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIRUDOOWKH
YDULDEOHV7KHFKDLQUXOHLVXVHGWRH[SUHVVWKLVMRLQWSUREDELOLW\DVWKHSURGXFWRIWKHFRQGLWLRQDOSUREDELOLWLHVWKDWQHHGWREH
VSHFLILHGIRUHDFKYDULDEOHRUQRGH7KHFKDLQUXOHLVJLYHQEHORZ

3 ;   ; = º 3 ; _ 3D ;  
Q L L
 
L =

ZKHUH 3D ; L
LVWKHSDUHQWVHWRIDQRGH ; 7DNLQJWKHJUDSKDVDZKROHWKHFRQGLWLRQDOSUREDELOLWLHVWKHVWUXFWXUHRI
L

WKH %1 DQG MRLQW SUREDELOLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQ FDQ EH XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH PDUJLQDO SUREDELOLW\ RU OLNHOLKRRG RI HDFK QRGH
KROGLQJRQHRILWVVWDWHV7KLVSURFHGXUHLVFDOOHGPDUJLQDOLVDWLRQ

7KH SRZHU RI WKH EHOLHI FDOFXODWLRQV LQ %1V FRPHV WR OLJKW ZKHQHYHU ZH FKDQJH RQH RI WKHVH PDUJLQDO SUREDELOLWLHV 7KH
HIIHFWVRIWKHREVHUYDWLRQDUHSURSDJDWHGWKURXJKRXWWKHQHWZRUNDQGLQHYHU\SURSDJDWLRQVWHSWKHSUREDELOLWLHVRIDGLIIHUHQW
QHLJKERXULQJQRGHDUHXSGDWHG$FFRUGLQJWR>@LQVLPSOHQHWZRUNVWKHPDUJLQDOSUREDELOLWLHVRUOLNHOLKRRGRIHDFKVWDWHFDQ
EHFDOFXODWHGIURPWKHNQRZOHGJHRIWKHMRLQWGLVWULEXWLRQXVLQJWKHSURGXFWUXOHDQGWKH%D\HV¶WKHRUHP

7KHUHIRUHIRUGHILQLQJWKHZKROHVWUXFWXUHRID%1ZHPXVWVSHFLI\WKH&RQGLWLRQDO3UREDELOLW\'LVWULEXWLRQ &3' RUSGIV


RI HDFK QRGH WKDW KDV SDUHQWV DQG DV PHQWLRQHG EHIRUH ZH PXVW VSHFLI\ WKH SULRU SUREDELOLW\ RI D URRW QRGH V  6LQFH
HYLGHQFHFDQEHDVVLJQHGWRDQ\VXEVHWRIWKHQRGHV LHDQ\VXEVHWRIWKHQRGHVFDQEHREVHUYHG LIWKHUHDOZRUOGVLWXDWLRQV
GRQRWUHVWULFWWKDW%1VFDQEHXVHGIRUWKUHHNLQGVRIUHDVRQLQJ

 )URPNQRZQFDXVHVWRXQNQRZQHIIHFWV FDXVDOUHDVRQLQJ DQG


 )URPNQRZQHIIHFWVWRXQNQRZQFDXVHV GLDJQRVWLFUHDVRQLQJ RU

 
 )RUDQ\FRPELQDWLRQRIWKHVHWZR

DVLWLVH[SODLQHGLQ>@

,QIHUHQFH

$VLJQLILFDQWFKDUDFWHULVWLFRI%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNVLVWKDWZHFDQLQIHUFRQGLWLRQDOGHSHQGHQFLHVEHWZHHQYDULDEOHVE\YLVXDOO\
LQVSHFWLQJ WKH QHWZRUN¶V JUDSK 7KHUHIRUH ZH FDQ GLYLGH VHW RI %1 QRGHV LQWR QRQRYHUODSSLQJ VXEVHWV RI FRQGLWLRQDO
LQGHSHQGHQWQRGHV7KLVGHFRPSRVLWLRQLVLPSRUWDQWZKHQGRLQJWKHSUREDELOLW\LQIHUHQFH,QIHUHQFHLVWKHWDVNRIFRPSXWLQJ
WKHSUREDELOLW\RIHDFKVWDWHRIDQRGHLQD%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNZKHQRWKHUYDULDEOHVDUHNQRZQ7RSHUIRUPLQIHUHQFHZHILUVW
QHHGWREHIDPLOLDUZLWKWKHEHOLHISURSDJDWLRQ%HOLHISURSDJDWLRQLVWKHDFWLRQRIXSGDWLQJWKHEHOLHIVLQHDFKYDULDEOHZKHQ
REVHUYDWLRQVDUHJLYHQWRVRPHRIWKHYDULDEOHV,WFDQEHDOVRVDLGOLNHVWDWHGLQ>@WKDWLQIHUHQFHLVWKHWDVNRIHIILFLHQWO\
GHGXFLQJ WKH EHOLHI GLVWULEXWLRQ RYHU D SDUWLFXODU VXEVHW RI UDQGRP YDULDEOHV JLYHQ WKDW ZH NQRZ WKH VWDWHV RI VRPH RWKHU
YDULDEOHVLQWKHQHWZRUN

,Q JHQHUDO YDULDEOHV LQ %1V FDQ EH GLYLGHG LQWR JURXSV GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKHLU SRVLWLRQ LQ %1V DQG WDNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW WKH
PHDQLQJRIUHDOZRUOGVWDWHWKDWWKH\UHSUHVHQWVDQGLQFOXGLQJWKHLUREVHUYDELOLW\&RQVLGHUWKHSDUWLWLRQ = / = ; 1 ­ <0 
/HW ; 1 = ^[  [  [ 1 - `  <0 = ^ \   \  \ 0 - `  DQG / 10 GHQRWH WKH WZR VXEVHWV DV WKH VHWV RI KLGGHQ DQG
YLVLEOHYDULDEOHVUHVSHFWLYHO\/HW 8 . EHDQDUELWUDU\VXEVHWRI = / 7KHJRDORILQIHUHQFHLVWRILQGWKHFRQGLWLRQDOSGIRYHU
8 JLYHQWKHREVHUYHGYDULDEOHV<ZKLFKFDQEHZULWWHQDV 3U 8 . _< 

.
,I 8 . ² <  ZH FDQ HDVLO\ ILQG WKDW SGI LV WULYLDOO\ HTXDO WR 3U 8 . _ < = º d XN - \N  ZKHUH d[ =   IRU [  DQG
N =
d[ =  RWKHUZLVH$QRQWULYLDOFDVHDULVHVZKHQ 8 . ² ; 7KHGHVLUHGSGIFDQQRZEHREWDLQHGXVLQJWKHIDPRXV%D\HV
UXOH

3U 8 .  < 3U 8 .  <
3U 8 . _ < = =   
3U < Ê8 3U 8 .  <
.

&OHDUO\ZHFDQFRQFOXGHWKDWLWLVVXIILFLHQWWRILQGWKHMRLQWSGI 3U 8 . _< DQGWKHQPDUJLQDOL]HRYHU 8 . 0RUHRYHUWKH


MRLQWSGIRYHU 8 . DQG<LVREWDLQHGE\PDUJLQDOL]LQJ 3U = / RYHUWKHVHWRIKLGGHQYDULDEOHV ; ? 8 . 

3U 8 . _ < = Ê 3U [8 .  < = [³Ê


[³; ?8 . ;8
3U = /    
? .

,QIHUHQFHLQDUELWUDU\%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNVLVLQJHQHUDO13KDUG>@+RZHYHUWKHUHDUHVSHFLDOFDVHVRI%1WRSRORJLHVWKDW
DOORZIRUPRUHHIILFLHQWLQIHUHQFHDOJRULWKPV,QIHUHQFHFDQEHGRQHE\

 ([DFW SUREDELOLW\ SURSDJDWLRQ LQ D VLQJO\ FRQQHFWHG QHWZRUN 7R GR WKLV ZH QHHG WR WUDQVIRUP WKH QHWZRUN LQWR
VLQJO\FRQQHFWHGVWUXFWXUH
 $SSUR[LPDWH LQIHUHQFH 0RQWH &DUOR LQIHUHQFH WHFKQLTXHV LQIHUHQFH E\ DQFHVWUDO VLPXODWLRQ *LEEV VDPSOLQJ
+HOPKROW]PDFKLQHLQIHUHQFHYDULDWLRQDOLQIHUHQFHWHFKQLTXHHWF 

/HDUQLQJ

,WLVRIWHQWKHFDVHWKDWZHGRQRWNQRZDOORIWKHFRQGLWLRQDOSUREDELOLWLHVWKURXJKRXWWKHQHWZRUN,IZHZDQWWRRYHUFRPH
WKLV SUREOHP ZH PXVW HPSOR\ VRPH OHDUQLQJ WHFKQLTXHV WKDW HQDEOH XV WR FRPSOHWH WKH PLVVLQJ EHOLHIV LQ WKH QHWZRUN
$FFRUGLQJ WR >@ WKH UROH RI OHDUQLQJ LV WR DGMXVW WKH SDUDPHWHUV RI WKH %D\HVLDQ QHWZRUN VR WKDW WKH SGIV GHILQHG E\ WKH
QHWZRUNVXIILFLHQWO\GHVFULEHVVWDWLVWLFDOEHKDYLRXURIWKHREVHUYHGGDWD

/HW0EHDSDUDPHWULF%1PRGHOZLWKSDUDPHWHUV q RIWKHSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQGHILQHGE\WKHPRGHO/HW 3U 0 DQG


3U q _ 0 EHWKHSULRUGLVWULEXWLRQVRYHUWKHVHWRIPRGHOVDQGWKHVSDFHRISDUDPHWHUVLQWKHVHPRGHOVUHVSHFWLYHO\*LYHQ

 
VRPHREVHUYHGGDWDDVVXPHGWRKDYHEHHQJHQHUDWHGE\WKHPRGHODVGHILQHGE\WKHJRDORIOHDUQLQJLQ%D\HVLDQIUDPHZRUN
ZH KDYH WR HVWLPDWH WKH PRGHO SDUDPHWHUV q  VXFK WKDW WKH SRVWHULRU SUREDELOLW\ RI WKH PRGHOJLYHQ GDWD = /  EHFRPH
PD[LPL]HG

3U 0
3U = / ×q
3U 0 _ = / = 3U = / _ q  0 3U q _ 0 Gq   

7RDGMXVWWKLVWDVNWRPRUHDSSURSULDWHIRUPLWLVXVXDOO\DVVXPHGWKDWWKHSGIRIWKHSDUDPHWHUVRIWKHPRGHO 3U q _ 0 LV
KLJKO\SHDNHGDURXQGPD[LPXPOLNHOLKRRG 0/ HVWLPDWHVRIWKRVHSDUDPHWHUV7KXVZHWUDQVIRUPHTXLWDWLRQ  LQWR

3U 0
3U 0 _ = /   3U = / _ q 0/  0 3U q 0/ _ 0   
3U = /

ZKHUHWKHPD[LPXPOLNHOLKRRGHVWLPDWH q 0/ IRUDJLYHQPRGHO0LVREWDLQHGIURPQH[WWHUP

q 0/ = DUJ PD[ ORJ 3U = / _ q   


q

:HFDQHYHQFRQVLGHUDFDVHZKHUHQRWDOORIWKHYDULDEOHV=LQWKHPRGHORID%D\HVLDQQHWZRUN0DUHREVHUYHG UHSUHVHQWHG
E\; :HFDQGHVFULEHWKHJRDORIOHDUQLQJLQVXFKSUREOHPDVIROORZV

qÖ = DUJ PD[ ORJ Ê 3 <  ; _ q   


q
;

ZKHUH3GHQRWHVVSHFLILFMRLQWSGIGHILQHGE\WKHQHWZRUN:HFDQDOWHUQDWLYHO\PLQLPL]HWKHFRVWIXQFWLRQGHILQHGDV

- q = - ORJ Ê 3 <  ; _ q   
;

7RPLQLPL]HWKHFRVWZHFDQXVHDQRSWLPLVDWLRQWHFKQLTXHWKDWUHO\RQWKHJUDGLHQWRIWKHFRVWIXQFWLRQRUZHFDQXVHDQ
LWHUDWLYH SURFHGXUH IRU WKH RSWLPLVDWLRQ FDOOHG ([SHFWDWLRQ0D[LPL]DWLRQ (0  DOJRULWKP RU YDULDQFH RI WKDW SURFHGXUH
NQRZQDV*HQHUDOL]HG(0 *(0 HWF

'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV

0RVW RI WKH HYHQWV WKDW ZH PHHW LQ RXU HYHU\GD\ OLIH DUH QRW GHWHFWHG EDVHG RQ D SDUWLFXODU SRLQW LQ WLPH EXW WKH\ FDQ EH
GHVFULEHG WKURXJK D PXOWLSOH VWDWHV RI REVHUYDWLRQV WKDW \LHOG D MXGJHPHQW RI RQH FRPSOHWH ILQDO HYHQW 6WDWLVWLFLDQV KDYH
GHYHORSHGQXPHURXVPHWKRGVIRUUHDVRQLQJDERXWWHPSRUDOUHODWLRQVKLSVDPRQJGLIIHUHQWHQWLWLHVLQWKHZRUOG7KLVILHOGLV
JHQHUDOO\ NQRZQ DV WLPHVHULHV DQDO\VLV $FFRUGLQJ WR >@ WLPHVHULHV LV D VDPSOH UHDOL]DWLRQ RI D VWRFKDVWLF SURFHVV
FRQVLVWLQJRIDVHWRIREVHUYDWLRQVPDGHVHTXHQWLDOO\RYHUWLPH

7LPHLVDOVRDQLPSRUWDQWGLPHQVLRQLQWKHILHOGRI$,DQGUHDVRQLQJ+RZHYHU%1VGRQRWSURYLGHGLUHFWPHFKDQLVPIRU
UHSUHVHQWLQJ WHPSRUDO GHSHQGHQFLHV ,Q DWWHPSWLQJ WR DGG WHPSRUDO GLPHQVLRQ LQWR WKH %1 PRGHO YDULRXV DSSURDFKHV KDV
EHHQVXJJHVWHG)UHTXHQWQDPHVXVHGWRGHVFULEHWKLVQHZGLPHQVLRQLQ%1PRGHOVDUH³WHPSRUDO´DQG³G\QDPLF´+RZHYHU
WKH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKHVH PRGHOV DQG WKHLU GHQRPLQDWLRQ FDQQRW XQLTXHO\ SRLQW WR RQH W\SLFDO PRGHO 6WHUULWW HW DO >@
WULHGWRGLVWLQJXLVKWKHVHFDWHJRULHVLQWKHPDQQHUWKDWZRXOGEHGHVFULEHGEHORZ

'\QDPLF %HOLHI 1HWZRUNV '%1  VKRXOG EH D QDPH RI D PRGHO WKDW GHVFULEHV D V\VWHP WKDW LV G\QDPLFDOO\ FKDQJLQJ RU
HYROYLQJRYHUWLPH7KLVPRGHOZLOOHQDEOHXVHUVWRPRQLWRUDQGXSGDWHWKHV\VWHPDVWLPHSURFHHGVDQGHYHQSUHGLFWIXUWKHU
EHKDYLRXURIWKHV\VWHP,QVXFKPRGHOVZRUGG\QDPLFLVFRQQHFWHGZLWKD³PRWLYHIRUFH´&KDQJLQJWKHQDWXUHRIWKHVWDWLF
%1WRPRGHO³PRWLYHIRUFHV´FDQWKHQEHWKRXJKWRIDVDGDSWLQJLWWRG\QDPLFPRGHO$OWKRXJKHYHU\V\VWHPWKDWFKDQJHLWV
VWDWH LQYROYH WLPH DXWKRUV GLIIHUHQWLDWH EHWZHHQ WKH WZR WHUPV G\QDPLF DQG WHPSRUDO LQ WKDW WHPSRUDO PRGHOV H[SOLFLWO\
PRGHO WLPH DV FRQWLQXRXV SHUPDQHQW FDWHJRU\ DV RSSRVHG WR RWKHU FKDQJHV LQ WKH V\VWHP VXFK DV WKH FKDQJH LQ VWDWH RI D
V\VWHP+HQFHWHPSRUDOPRGHOVZRXOGEHDVXEFODVVRIG\QDPLF,IHYHU\WLPHVOLFHRIDWHPSRUDOPRGHOFRUUHVSRQGVWRRQH
SDUWLFXODUVWDWHRIDV\VWHPDQGLIWKHPRYHPHQWEHWZHHQWKHVOLFHVUHIOHFWVDFKDQJHLQVWDWHLQVWHDGRIWLPHLQPRVWFDVHV
WKDWPRGHOLVFODVVLILHGDVDG\QDPLFPRGHO

 
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH VDPH DXWKRUV FRQVLGHULQJ WLPH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ WHPSRUDO DSSURDFKHV FRXOG EH FODVVLILHG LQWR WZR PDLQ
FDWHJRULHVQDPHO\WKRVHPRGHOVZKLFKUHSUHVHQWWLPHDVSRLQWV LQVWDQFHV RUDVWLPHLQWHUYDOV+RZHYHUWLPHLQWHUYDOVFDQ
EHWKRXJKWRIDVDVHWRIFRQVHFXWLYHWLPHSRLQWV7KHUHIRUHWLPHSRLQWUHSUHVHQWDWLRQVHHPVWREHPRUHDSSURSULDWHDQGPRUH
H[SUHVVLYH

:H FDQ GLVWLQJXLVK WZR GLIIHUHQW DSSURDFKHV WR WLPH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI UHDO ZRUOG VWDWHV ZKLFK LV H[SODLQHG LQ WKH VHTXHO

)LJXUH'LDJUDPVKRZLQJDQDSSURDFKZKHUHWLPHVOLFHLVXVHGWRUHSUHVHQWDVQDSVKRWRIWKHHYROYLQJWHPSRUDO
SURFHVV

)LJXUHUHSUHVHQWVDQDSSURDFKZKHUHWLPHVOLFHLVXVHGWRUHSUHVHQWVQDSVKRWRIWKHHYROYLQJWHPSRUDOSURFHVV:HFDQVD\
WKDWWKHEHOLHIQHWZRUNFRQVLVWVRIDVHTXHQFHRIVXEPRGHOVHDFKUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHV\VWHPDWDSDUWLFXODUSRLQWRULQWHUYDOLQ
WLPH WLPH VOLFH  7KHVH WLPH VOLFHV DUH LQWHUFRQQHFWHG E\ WHPSRUDO UHODWLRQV ZKLFK DUH UHSUHVHQWHG E\ WKH DUFV MRLQLQJ
SDUWLFXODUYDULDEOHVIURPWZRFRQVHFXWLYHWLPHVOLFHV

)LJXUHUHSUHVHQWVDQRWKHUPRGHOZKHUHWKHQHWZRUNLVFRPSRVHGRILGHQWLFDOVXEPRGHOVGXSOLFDWHGRYHUHDFKWLPHVOLFH
7KLVPHDQVWKDWLWKDVWKHVDPHWHPSRUDOVWUXFWXUHDVSUHYLRXVPRGHO+RZHYHUOLQNVEHWZHHQVWDWHYDULDEOHVZLWKLQDWLPH
VOLFHDUHKHUHGLVDOORZHG

)LJXUH7HPSRUDOPRGHOZLWKGXSOLFDWHGWLPHVOLFHVRYHUWLPH

'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNVDUHXVXDOO\GHILQHGDVVSHFLDOFDVHRIVLQJO\FRQQHFWHG%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNVVSHFLILFDOO\DLPHGDW
WLPH VHULHV PRGHOOLQJ OLNH VWDWHG LQ >@ $OOWKHQRGHVHGJHVDQGSUREDELOLWLHVWKDWIRUPVWDWLFLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIDV\VWHPLV
LGHQWLFDOWRD%19DULDEOHVKHUHFDQEHGHQRWHGDVWKHVWDWHRID'%1EHFDXVHWKH\LQFOXGHDWHPSRUDOGLPHQVLRQ7KHVWDWHV
RIDQ\V\VWHPGHVFULEHGDVD'%1VDWLVI\WKH0DUNRYLDQFRQGLWLRQWKDWLVGHILQHGDVIROORZV7KHVWDWHRIDV\VWHPDWWLPHW
GHSHQGVRQO\RQLWVLPPHGLDWHSDVWLHLWVVWDWHDWWLPHW$OVRWKLVSURSHUW\LVIUHTXHQWO\FRQVLGHUHGDVDGHILQLWLRQRI)LUVW
RUGHU0DUNRYSURSHUW\DVLQ>@WKHIXWXUHLVLQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHSDVWJLYHQWKHSUHVHQW

1RZDVZHFDQVHHWKH%1PRGHOLVH[SDQGHG:HFDQDOORZQRWRQO\FRQQHFWLRQVZLWKLQWLPHVOLFHVNQRZQDVLQWUDVOLFH
FRQQHFWLRQV EXW DOVR WKH RQH EHWZHHQ WLPH VOLFHV 7KHVH WHPSRUDO FRQQHFWLRQV LQFRUSRUDWH FRQGLWLRQ SUREDELOLWLHV EHWZHHQ
YDULDEOHVIURPGLIIHUHQWWLPHVOLFHV7KHWUDQVLWLRQPDWUL[WKDWUHSUHVHQWWKHVHWLPHGHSHQGHQFLHVLVRIWHQFDOOHGD&RQGLWLRQDO
3UREDELOLW\7DEOH &37 VLQFHLWUHSUHVHQWVWKH&3'LQWDEXODUIRUP,QWUDVOLFH&3'VFDQDOVREHUHSUHVHQWHGE\&37VLHLQ
WDEXODUIRUP

7KHVWDWHVRIDG\QDPLFPRGHOGRQRWQHHGWREHGLUHFWO\REVHUYDEOH7KH\PD\LQIOXHQFHVRPHRWKHUYDULDEOHVWKDWZHFDQ
GLUHFWO\PHDVXUHRUFDOFXODWH$OVRWKHVWDWHRIVRPHV\VWHPQHHGVQRWWREHDXQLTXHVLPSOHVWDWH,WPD\EHUHJDUGHGDVD
FRPSOH[VWUXFWXUHRILQWHUDFWLQJVWDWHV(DFKVWDWHLQDG\QDPLFPRGHODWRQHWLPHLQVWDQFHPD\GHSHQGRQRQHRUPRUHVWDWHV
DWWKHSUHYLRXVWLPHLQVWDQFHRUDQGRQVRPHVWDWHVLQWKHVDPHWLPHLQVWDQFH,WZDVVKRZQWKDWFRPSOH[VWUXFWXUHVOLNHWKLV
FRXOGDOVREHUHSUHVHQWHGDV'%1V VHH>@IRUH[DPSOH 6RJHQHUDOO\LQ'%1VWDWHVRIDV\VWHPDWWLPHWPD\GHSHQGRQ
V\VWHPVVWDWHVDWWLPHWDQGSRVVLEO\RQFXUUHQWVWDWHVRIVRPHRWKHUQRGHVLQWKHIUDJPHQWRI'%1VWUXFWXUHWKDWUHSUHVHQWV
YDULDEOHVDWWLPHW

:HFDQGHVFULEH'%1VD\LQJWKDWLWFRQVLVWVRISUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQRQWKHVHTXHQFHRI7KLGGHQVWDWHYDULDEOHV
; = ^[  [7 -`  DQG WKH VHTXHQFH RI 7 REVHUYDEOH YDULDEOHV < = ^ \  \7 -`  ZKHUH 7 LV WKH WLPH ERXQGDU\ IRU WKH
JLYHQHYHQWZHDUHLQYHVWLJDWLQJ7KLVFDQEHH[SUHVVHGE\WKHIROORZLQJWHUP

 
7 - 7 -
3U ;  < = º 3U [ W _ [W - º 3U \ W _ [ W 3U [    
W = W =

,QRUGHUWRFRPSOHWHO\VSHFLI\D'%1ZHQHHGWRGHILQHWKUHHVHWVRISDUDPHWHUV

œ 6WDWHWUDQVLWLRQSGIV 3U [ W
_ [ - WKDWVSHFLILHVWLPHGHSHQGHQFLHVEHWZHHQWKHVWDWHV
W

œ 2EVHUYDWLRQ SGIV 3U \ _ [  WKDW VSHFLILHV GHSHQGHQFLHV RI REVHUYDWLRQ QRGHV UHJDUGLQJ WR RWKHU QRGHV DW WLPH
W W

VOLFHWDQG

œ ,QLWLDOVWDWHGLVWULEXWLRQ 3U [ WKDWEULQJVLQLWLDOSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQLQWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHSURFHVV

)LUVWWZRSDUDPHWHUVKDGWREHGHWHUPLQHGIRUDOOVWDWHVLQDOOWLPHVOLFHVW «77KHUHLVDSRVVLELOLW\WKDWFRQGLWLRQDOSGIV
FDQ GHSHQG RI WLPH LQVWDQFH WKDW LV WR EH WLPHYDU\LQJ 3U [ _ [ - = 3U [ _ [ -  W  RU WLPH LQYDULDQW 7LPH LQYDULDQW
W W W W

FRQGLWLRQDO SGIV FDQ EH SDUDPHWULF 3U [ W


_ [ - = 3U [ _ [ - q  RU QRQSDUDPHWULF ZKHQ WKH\ DUH GHVFULEHG XVLQJ
W W W

SUREDELOLW\ WDEOHV &37V  'HSHQGLQJ RQ WKH W\SH RI WKH VWDWH VSDFH RI KLGGHQ DQG REVHUYDEOH YDULDEOHV D '%1 FDQ EH
GLVFUHWHFRQWLQXRXVRUFRPELQDWLRQRIWKHVHWZR

6LPLODUO\DVZHSURSRVHLQVWDWLF%1VLQ'%1VZHPD\EHLQWHUHVWHGLQWKHIROORZLQJWDVNV

 ,QIHUHQFHHVWLPDWHWKHSGIRIXQNQRZQVWDWHVJLYHQVRPHNQRZQREVHUYDWLRQVDQGLQLWLDOSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQ

 'HFRGLQJ ILQG WKH EHVWILWWLQJ SUREDELOLW\ YDOXHV IRU VHTXHQFH RI KLGGHQ VWDWHV WKDW KDYH JHQHUDWHG WKH NQRZQ
VHTXHQFHRIREVHUYDWLRQV

 /HDUQLQJJLYHQDQXPEHURIVHTXHQFHVRIREVHUYDWLRQVHVWLPDWHSDUDPHWHUVRID'%1VXFKWKDWWKH\EHVWILWWRWKH
REVHUYHGGDWDDQGPDNHWKHEHVWPRGHOIRUWKHV\VWHP

 3UXQLQJGLVWLQJXLVKLQJZKLFKQRGHVDUHVHPDQWLFDOO\LPSRUWDQWIRULQIHUHQFHLQ'%1VWUXFWXUHDQGZKLFKDUHQRW
DQGUHPRYLQJWKHPIURPWKHQHWZRUN

,QIHUHQFH

6LQFHLQWKH'%1VRQO\DVXEVHWRIVWDWHVFDQEHREVHUYHGDWHDFKWLPHVOLFHZHKDYHWRFDOFXODWHDOOWKHXQNQRZQVWDWHVLQ
WKH QHWZRUN 7KLV LV GRQH E\ SURFHGXUH FDOOHG LQIHUHQFH 7KH SUREOHP RI LQIHUHQFH LQ '%1V FDQ EH UHSUHVHQWHG DV WKH
SUREOHP RI ILQGLQJ 3U ; 7 - _ <7 -  ZKHUH <7 -  GHQRWHV D ILQLWH VHW RI 7 FRQVHFXWLYH REVHUYDWLRQV
<7 - = ^ \  \  \7 -`  DQG ; 7 -  LV WKH VHW RI WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ KLGGHQ YDULDEOHV ; 7 - = ^[  [   [7 - `  6LPSOH
JUDSKLFDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKLVSUREOHPLVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH7KHVKDGHGFLUFOHLQGLFDWHVWKHVWDWHVWKDWQHHGWREHHVWLPDWHG
[ EDVHGRQREVHUYDWLRQV \ 
W W

'LIIHUHQWW\SHVRI'%1VUHTXHVWGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIHVWLPDWLRQVDQGFDOFXODWLRQVEDVHGRQWKHLUVSHFLILFVWUXFWXUH,ISRVVLEOH
7 -
LQVRPHFLUFXPVWDQFHVLWPD\EHPRUHDSSURSULDWH HIILFLHQW QRWWRHVWLPDWHWKHFRQGLWLRQDOSGIV 3U ;  _ <7 - IRUDOO
FRQVWHOODWLRQVRI ; 7 - EXWLQVWHDGWRHVWLPDWHWKHSGI¶VVXIILFLHQWVWDWLVWLFV7KHUHIRUHZHFRXOGFKRRVHVLJQLILFDQWVWDWHVRU
D VWDWH DQG HVWLPDWH RQO\ WKHLU YDOXHV IRU GLIIHUHQW WLPH VOLFHV 7KLV LV WKH FDVH ZKHUH WKH FRQGLWLRQDO SGI LV H[SUHVVHG DV
*DXVVLDQIXQFWLRQ,QVXFKQHWZRUNVWUXFWXUHLWLVVXIILFLHQWWRHVWLPDWHWKHPHDQDQGYDULDQFHRI [ GHQRWHGDV W
[W _ <7 - 
DQG [W [W
_ <7 -  IRU HYHU\ W DV ZHOO DV WKH FRYDULDQFH [W [
W - _ <7 -  2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG ZKHQ [  LV GLVFUHWH DQG WKH
W

FRQGLWLRQDO SGI LV JLYHQ DV D FRQGLWLRQDO SUREDELOLW\ WDEOH ZH QHHG WR HVWLPDWH 3U [W _ <7 -  ZKLFK LV WKH VDPH DV
SUHYLRXVO\GHVFULEHG [W _ <7 - DQG 3U [W [
W - _ <7 - >@

,I WKHUH LV VWURQJ VLPLODULW\ EHWZHHQ '%1V DQG VLQJO\ FRQQHFWHG %1V DQ HIILFLHQW IRUZDUGEDFNZDUG DOJRULWKP ZLWK VRPH
PRGLILFDWLRQV FDQ EH HPSOR\HG ,W ZLOO UDLVH JRRG HVWLPDWLRQV LI ZH XVH LW IRU WKLV SXUSRVH 1DWXUDOO\ ZH QHHG WR SHUIRUP
VRPHUHVWULFWLRQVRQDUHJXODU%1DOJRULWKPLQRUGHUWRHQDEOHVXFKFRPSXWDWLRQV
 
[ [ [ [7 -

\ \ \ \7 -

)LJXUH,QIHUHQFHLQ'%1V*LYHQWKHYDOXHVRIREVHUYDWLRQQRGHVLQHYHU\WLPHVOLFH \ ZHKDYHWRHVWLPDWHWKH
L

YDOXHVRIKLGGHQQRGHV [ ZKHUHLUHFHLYHVYDOXHVIURPWR7
L

7RSHUIRUPWKLVDOJRULWKPZHKDYHWRH[HFXWHWZRVWHSSURFHVVLQRUGHUWRGRLQIHUHQFHWDVN

 3URSDJDWLRQRISUREDELOLWLHVLQWKHWLPHGLUHFWLRQDQGWKHQ
 7KHEDFNZDUGSURSDJDWLRQRSSRVLWHWRWLPHGLUHFWLRQ

)RUZDUGSURSDJDWLRQ

:HZLOOXVH a W
[ WRGHQRWHWKHIRUZDUGSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQWKDWGHVFULEHVWKHMRLQWSUREDELOLW\REVHUYDWLRQVJDWKHUHG
W

XSRQWLPHWDQGDWWLPHW

a [ = 3U <  [ 
W W
W

W
 

,IZHUHO\RQQHWZRUNVWUXFWXUHVKRZQRQ)LJXUHLWLVQRWFRPSOLFDWHGWRFRQFOXGHWKDW

a + [ + = 3U \ + _ [ + Ê 3U [ + _ [ a [ 
W W W W W W W W
 
[W

ZLWKWKHLQLWLDOFRQGLWLRQ a  [ = 3U [ 

7 -
2QHRIWKHLQWHUHVWLQJUHVXOWVRIIRUZDUGSURSDJDWLRQLVWKHWHUPIRUOLNHOLKRRGRIWKHREVHUYDWLRQGDWDVHTXHQFH < )URP
WKHGHILQLWLRQRIWKHIRUZDUGIDFWRU a W
[ LQHTXDWLRQ  ZHFDQGHWHUPLQHWKDW
W

a 7 - [7 -
3U <7 - =   
Ê[ W Wa
W
[

$VZHFDQVHHWKHSUREDELOLW\RIWKHREVHUYDWLRQVHTXHQFHLVSURSRUWLRQDOWRWKHIRUZDUGIDFWRURIWKHODVWKLGGHQVWDWH7KH
SUREDELOLW\IURPHTXDWLRQ  FDQDOVREHXVHGZKHQZHZDQWWRGHWHUPLQHKRZZHOOGLIIHUHQW'%1PRGHOVFRUUHVSRQGVWRD
GDWDVHTXHQFHLQWKHIUDPHZRUNRIPD[LPXPOLNHOLKRRGHVWLPDWLRQ

%DFNZDUGSURSDJDWLRQ

+HUHZHVWDUWZLWK b W [W DVWKHEDFNZDUGSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQLHWKHFRQGLWLRQDOSUREDELOLW\RIREVHUYDWLRQVIURPWLPH
WXQWLOWKHODVWREVHUYDWLRQDWWLPH7FRQGLWLRQHGRQWKHYDOXHVRIWKHVWDWHDWWLPHW

b W [W = 3U <W7+- _ [  W
 

:HFDQLQIHUWKHQH[WUHODWLRQIURPWKHEDFNZDUGIDFWRUGHILQLWLRQ

 
b - [ - = Ê b [ 3U [ _ [ - 3U \ _ [ 
W W W W W W W W
 
[W

ZLWK b7 [7 - =  DVWKHILQDOYDOXH

6PRRWKLQJ

*LYHQ WKH H[SUHVVLRQV IRU IRUZDUG DQG EDFNZDUG SUREDELOLW\ SURSDJDWLRQ IDFWRUV  ZH DUH LQ SRVLWLRQ WRH[SORUHIHZPRUH
LQWHUHVWLQJWHUPV2QHRIWKHPLVFDOOHGVPRRWKLQJDQGLVXVHIXOIRULQIHUHQFHDQGOHDUQLQJLQWKH'%1,WLVIRUPIURPWKH
HTXDWLRQV  DQG  ZHFDQHDVLO\UHQGHUQH[WHTXDWLRQ

a W [W b W [W
g W [W = 3U [W _ <7 - =    
Ê[ a W [W bW [W
W

ZKHUH g W
[ LVWKHVPRRWKLQJRSHUDWRU:HDUHDOVRLQSRVLWLRQWRGHULYHKLJKHURUGHUVPRRWKLQJHTXDWLRQV)RUH[DPSOHD
W

ILUVWRUGHUVPRRWKLQJLVGHILQHGDV

a W - [W - 3U [W  [W - 3U \W _ [W b W [W
x N N - [W  [W - = 3U [W  [W - _ < 7 - =   
Ê[ a W [W bW [W
    

7KHVH WHUPV FDQ EH XVHG IRU HDVLHU FDOFXODWLRQ RI SUREDELOLW\ YDOXHV RI D QRGH¶V VWDWH IURP QHLJKERXULQJ QRGHV DQG IRU
GLVWULEXWLQJWKLVHYLGHQFHWRQHLJKERXULQJQRGHV

3UHGLFWLRQ

$QRWKHU LQWHUHVWLQJ LQIHUHQFH SUREOHP GHDOV ZLWK SUHGLFWLQJ IXWXUH REVHUYDWLRQV RU KLGGHQ VWDWHV EDVHG RQ WKH SDVW
REVHUYDWLRQGDWD1DPHO\DSUHGLFWLRQRIDKLGGHQVWDWHVLQWKHQH[WWLPHVOLFHFDQEHGHVFULEHGDVWKHIROORZLQJLQIHUHQFH
FDOFXODWLRQWDVNRI 3U [ + _ < RU 3U \ + _ < ,WLVHDV\WRVKRZWKDW
W W

W W

3U [ + _ < = W
Ê [W
3U [ + _ [ a [
W W W W

  
Ê a [
W

W W
[W

,QWKHVDPHZD\ZHFDQZULWHQH[W

3U \ + _ < = W
Ê a + [ + 
[W +
W  W 
 
Ê a [
W

W W
[W

,QVRPHVLWXDWLRQVLWPD\EHPRUHDSSURSULDWHQRWWRZRUNZLWKWKHSGIVWKHPVHOYHVEXWWRH[SUHVVWKHSUHGLFWLRQSUREOHPLQ
WHUPVRIWKHH[SHFWHGRUPD[LPXPOLNHOLKRRGHVWLPDWHV [+ W  W
= ( [ + _ <  \ + [ W 
W
] W  W
= ( [ \ + _ < ] 7KLVLVUHIOHFWHGLQ
W  W

WKHQH[WHTXDWLRQV

[+
W W 0/
= DUJ PD[3U [ + _ < DQG W 
W
 
[ W +

\+
W W 0/
= DUJ PD[3U \ + _ <  W 
W
 
\ W +

 
'HFRGLQJ

$QRWKHU SUREOHP WKDW DULVHV LQ '%1V LV WRILQGWKHPRVWOLNHO\VHTXHQFHRIKLGGHQYDULDEOHVJLYHQWKHREVHUYDWLRQV6LQFH


'%1QRGHVFDQKDYHPRUHWKDQRQHVWDWHZHQHHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHVHTXHQFHRIKLGGHQVWDWHVZLWKKLJKHVWSUREDELOLWLHV7KLV
SUREOHPLVXVXDOO\GHQRWHGDVVHTXHQFHGHFRGLQJDQGLVGHVFULEHGOLNH

;Ö 7 - = DUJ PD[ 3U ; 7 - _ <7 -   


; 7 -

7KLV WDVN FDQ EH DFKLHYHG XVLQJ WKH G\QDPLF SURJUDPPLQJ 9LWHUEL DOJRULWKP >@ :H ZLOO VWDUW ZLWK WKLV HTXDWLRQ
d W + [W + = PD[ 3U ; + _ < + &RQVLGHULQJSUHYLRXVO\GHVFULEHGQHWZRUNWRSRORJ\ZHFDQGHULYHQH[WWHUP
W W

;
W

d W + [W + = 3U \W + _ [W + PD[ ÎÏ3U [W + _ [W PD[ 3U ; W  <W Þß = 3U \W + _ [W + PD[ [3U [W + _ [W d W [W ]   


[ Ð
W ; - à
W
[ W

,WQRZUHDGLO\IROORZVWKDW

PD[
7 -
3U ; 7 - _ <7 - = PD[ d 7 - [7 -   
; [7 -

7RILQG ;Ö 
7 -
ZHDOVRQHHGWRLQFOXGHWKHDUJXPHQW [ WKDWPD[LPL]HV d W W + [W + OLNH

y + [ + = DUJ PD[[3U [ + _ [ + d [ ]  
W W W W W W
 
[W

DQGWKHQUHWXUQWRWKHPDLQJRDO

[Ö = y
W W
ÖW +
+ [   

,WLVVLJQLILFDQWWRGHQRWHWKDWLIZHLQWHQGWRGHFRGHWKHVHTXHQFHRIKLGGHQVWDWHVXVLQJWKH9LWHUELDOJRULWKPLWLVQHFHVVDU\
WR SRVVHVV D FRPSOHWH VHW RI REVHUYDWLRQV \  \7  $ OHVV RSWLPDO VROXWLRQ NQRZQ DV WKH WUXQFDWHG 9LWHUEL DOJRULWKP
HQJDJHVEDFNWUDFNLQJHYHU\WLPHDIWHUDIL[HGQXPEHURIREVHUYDWLRQVLVUHFHLYHG 7 UXQF W
< 7 

/HDUQLQJ

$UHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIUHDOZRUOGSUREOHPVE\D'%1VWUXFWXUHRIWHQUHTXLUHVLQWURGXFWLRQRIVHYHUDOQRGHVZKLFKFRQGLWLRQDO
SUREDELOLWLHV FDQQRW EH H[DFWO\ GHWHUPLQHG (YHQ WKH H[SHUW NQRZOHGJH FDQQRW RIIHU XV VROXWLRQ IRU VRPH FRQGLWLRQDO
UHODWLRQVKLSVLQSDUWLFXODUGRPDLQ,QVXFKVLWXDWLRQVZHQHHGWROHDUQWKHVH&3'V7KLVSURFHVVLVFRPSOH[DQGLVEDVHGRQ
WKH([SHFWDWLRQ0D[LPLVDWLRQ (0 RU*HQHUDO([SHFWDWLRQ0D[LPLVDWLRQ *(0 DOJRULWKPVIRU'%1VVKRUWO\GHVFULEHGLQ
SUHYLRXV VHFWLRQ RU VRPH RWKHU VLPLODU DOJRULWKPV +RZHYHU WKH WHUP WKDW GHVFULEHV WKH MRLQW SUREDELOLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQ QRZ
UHFHLYHVDVSHFLILFIRUP

7 - 7 -
ORJ 3U ; 7 -  <7 - _ q = Ê ORJ 3U [W _ [W - + Ê ORJ 3U \W _ [W + ORJ 3U [   
W = W =

ZKHUH q  GHQRWHV WKH PRGHO SDUDPHWHU YHFWRU 7KH PD[LPL]DWLRQ VWHS QRZ LQWHQGV WR ILQG SDUDPHWHUV q  WKDW VDWLVI\ QH[W
FRQGLWLRQ

›% 3 4Ö 7 - › ORJ 3U [W  [W - 7 - › ORJ 3U \W  [W › ORJ 3U [


=Ê +Ê + =    
›q W = ›q W = ›q ›q

ZKHUHWKHH[SHFWDWLRQKDVWKHVDPHIRUPDWDVLWLVGHILQHGLQVHFWLRQ

 
7KLV OHDUQLQJ SUREOHP FDQ EH H[SUHVVHG WKURXJK D JUDGLHQWEDVHG OHDUQLQJ SURFHGXUH ,W FDQ EH HTXLYDOHQWO\ XVHG DQG LV
›% 3 4Ö
LPSOHPHQWHGWRSHUIRUPXWLOL]DWLRQRIQH[WWHUP  
›q

3UXQLQJ

$YHU\LPSRUWDQWDQGDOVRDGLIILFXOWWDVNLQGHVLJQLQJD'%1LVWKHSUREOHPRISUXQLQJ,WLVEDVHGRQ'%1VSRVVLELOLW\WR
FKDQJHLWVVWUXFWXUHDQGFRQQHFWLRQVRYHUWLPH7KLVSURFHVVZLOOEHH[SODLQHGLQVKRUWEHFDXVHLQPRVWFDVHVWKLVSURFHGXUHLV
RPLWWHGGXHWRLWVFRPSOH[QDWXUH

3UXQLQJWKHQHWZRUNFRQVLVWVRIDQ\RIWKHIROORZLQJDFWLRQV

 'HOHWLQJVWDWHVIURPDSDUWLFXODUQRGH
 5HPRYLQJWKHFRQQHFWLRQEHWZHHQWZRQRGHVRU
 5HPRYLQJDQRGHIURPWKHQHWZRUN

3UXQLQJPD\EHH[DFW ZLWKRXWORVVRILQIRUPDWLRQ RUKHXULVWLFZKHQLWUHSUHVHQWVMXVWRQHIRUPRIDSSUR[LPDWLRQ

:LWKLQHYHU\WLPHVOLFHWLWLVSRVVLEOHWRLGHQWLI\DVXEVHWRIWKHQRGHVWKDWGHVFULEHVFXUUHQWVWDWHRIWKHZRUOG HQYLURQPHQW 
GHQRWHGDV : W  : T W ZKLFKUHSUHVHQWVHLWKHUWKHHQWLUHZRUOGVWDWHRUWKHSDUWZHZDQWWRLQVSHFW:HFDOOWKHVHWKH
GHVLJQDWHGZRUOGQRGHV7KHVHQRGHVDUHFKRVHQLQWKHZD\WKDWLIWKHLUVWDWHVDUHNQRZQWKHQQRGHV 9 W N ZKHUH W N < W 
DUHQRORQJHUUHOHYDQWWRWKHRYHUDOOJRDORIWKHLQIHUHQFH,IIRUHYHU\LLQ > T @ WKHUHLVVVXFKWKDW 3U : W = V =  
L L

WKHQ WKH JHQHUDO SUXQLQJ DFWLRQ LV DV IROORZV   GHOHWH DOO QRGHV 9 W N  ZKHUH W N < W  DQG   H[SOLFLWO\ LQFRUSRUDWH
NQRZOHGJHWKDW : W = V :HH[SOLFLWO\LQFRUSRUDWHWKHLQIRUPDWLRQWKDW : W LVNQRZQWREHLQVWDWH V E\GHOHWLQJDOO
L L L L

VWDWHV H[FHSW IRU VWDWH V  DQG LQ WKDW ZD\ UHGXFLQJ WKH VWDWH VSDFH $OVR LI D QRGH 9 W  KDV QR VXFFHVVRUV DQG LI
L

3U 9 W = V =  WKHQZHFDQGHOHWHVWDWHV

,Q D VSHFLDO FDVH ZKHQ WKH QRGH 9 7  KDV QR SUHGHFHVVRUV LWV VWDWH LV NQRZQ WR EH V  DQG LWV RWKHU VWDWHV V ž V  DUH
L M L

GHOHWHGWKHFRQGLWLRQDOSUREDELOLW\WDEOHVRILWVVXFFHVVRUQRGHVPXVWEHXSGDWHGWRUHIOHFWWKLV1RZWKHUHPD\H[LVWVWDWHV
WKDWDUHLPSRVVLEOH$OOVXFKVWDWHVPXVWWKHQEHGHOHWHGDQGWKHSUXQLQJSURFHGXUHSHUIRUPHGUHFXUVLYHO\RQVXFFHVVRUV

7KHVHDUHMXVWVRPHEDVLFSUXQLQJSURFHGXUHVDQGWKH\DUHQRWVXIILFLHQWIRUFRQWUROOLQJWKHLQIHUHQFHFRPSOH[LW\7KHUHDUH
DOVRVRPHPDUJLQDOSUXQLQJSURFHGXUHV)RUH[DPSOHLIWKHUHLVQRLQLWLDOLVDWLRQLQIRUPDWLRQQRSUXQLQJZLOOEHSHUIRUPHG
(YHQZLWKLQLWLDOLVDWLRQLQIRUPDWLRQLID'%1PRGHOVVHQVRUVIDLOXUHWKHUHLVDOZD\VDVPDOOFKDQFHWKDWWKHGDWDLVLQFRUUHFW

7KH EDVLV RI PDNLQJ D SUXQLQJ GHFLVLRQ LV WKH WUDGH RII EHWZHHQ WKH VDYLQJV RQ H[HFXWLRQ RI WKH LQIHUHQFH YHUVXV WKH
OLNHOLKRRGRIPDNLQJDQHUURU

'LIIHUHQWOHYHOVRIFUHDWLQJ'%1V

7DEOH0HWKRGVIRUFUHDWLQJ'%1VVWUXFWXUHDQGGHWHUPLQLQJWKHLUSDUDPHWHUV

6WUXFWXUH2EVHUYDELOLW\ 0HWKRG
.QRZQ)XOO FRPSOHWHGDWD  6LPSOHVWDWLVWLFV
.QRZQ3DUWLDO LQFRPSOHWHGDWD  (0RUJUDGLHQWDVFHQW
8QNQRZQ)XOO 6HDUFKWKURXJKPRGHOVSDFH
8QNQRZQ3DUWLDO 6WUXFWXUDO(0
&UHDWLQJ '%1V IURP GDWD FDQ EH FKDUDFWHULVHG DV D YHU\ FRPSOH[ SUREOHP )RXU FDVHV KDYH EHHQ GLVWLQJXLVKHG LQ >@ IRU
GHVFULELQJWKHVHSUREOHPVDVVKRZQLW7DEOH)XOOREVHUYDELOLW\ FRPSOHWHGDWD PHDQVWKDWWKHYDOXHVRIDOOYDULDEOHVDUH
NQRZQ 3DUWLDO REVHUYDELOLW\ PHDQV WKDW ZH GR QRW NQRZ WKH YDOXHV RI VRPH YDULDEOH 6XFK FDVH H[LVWV EHFDXVH LQ VRPH
VLWXDWLRQVYDULDEOHVFDQQRWEHPHDVXUHGDQGWKHQWKH\DUHFDOOHGKLGGHQYDULDEOHV,WLVSRVVLEOHWKDWWKH\FDQEHPHDVXUHGLQ

 
WUDLQLQJ GDWD EXW WKH\DUHQRWDQGWKHQWKH\DUHWHUPHGDVPLVVLQJYDULDEOHV8QNQRZQVWUXFWXUHPHDQVWKDWZHDUHQRWLQ
SRVLWLRQWRNQRZWKHZKROHWRSRORJ\RIWKHQHWZRUN

.QRZQ6WUXFWXUH)XOO2EVHUYDELOLW\

:H DVVXPH WKDWWKHJRDORIOHDUQLQJLQWKLVFDVHLVWRILQGWKHYDOXHVRIWKHSDUDPHWHUVRIHDFK&3'ZKLFKPD[LPL]HVWKH


OLNHOLKRRG RI WKH WUDLQLQJ GDWD WKDW FRQWDLQV 6 LQGHSHQGHQW VHTXHQFHV HDFK RI ZKLFK KDV WKH REVHUYHG YDOXHV RI DOO 2
REVHUYDEOHQRGHVSHUVOLFHIRUHDFKRI7VOLFHV)RUUHDVRQRIVLPSOLI\LQJWKHGLVFXVVLRQZHZLOODVVXPHWKDWWKHSDUDPHWHU
YDOXHVIRUDOOQRGHVDUHFRQVWDQWDFURVVWLPH,I6 ZHFDQQRWDGHTXDWHO\HVWLPDWHWKHSDUDPHWHUVRIWKHYDULDEOHVLQWKHILUVW
VOLFH VR ZH XVXDOO\ DVVXPH WKDW WKHVH SDUDPHWHUV DUHIL[HGDSULRUL7KLVOHDGVXVWR1 6 7 VDPSOHVWKDWZHZLOOXVHWR
HVWLPDWHDOORWKHU&3'V,QFDVHVZKHUH1LVVPDOOFRPSDUHGWRWKHQXPEHURISDUDPHWHUVWKDWUHTXLUHILWWLQJZHFDQXVHD
QXPHULFDO SULRU WR PDNH SUREOHP UHJXODU ,Q WKLV FDVH ZH FDOO WKH HVWLPDWHV 0D[LPXP $ 3RVWHULRU 0$3  HVWLPDWHV DV
RSSRVHGWR0D[LPXP/LNHOLKRRG 0/ HVWLPDWHV

%\WKHFKDLQUXOHRISUREDELOLW\WKDWZHGHVFULEHGLQVHFWLRQZHFRXOGILQGWKDWWKHMRLQWSUREDELOLW\RIDOOWKHQRGHVLQWKH
JUDSKLV

3 ;   ; = º 3 ; ;   ;
P L L - = 3 ; 3D ;  
L L
  
L

ZKHUH P 2 7  LV WKH QXPEHU RI REVHUYDEOH QRGHV LQ WKH XQUROOHG QHWZRUN H[FOXGLQJ WKH ILUVW VOLFH  $ VHW RI QRGHV
GHQRWHGDVD3D ; DUHWKHSDUHQWVRIQRGH ; 7KHQRUPDOL]HGORJOLNHOLKRRGRIWKHWUDLQLQJVHWLV
L L


/= ORJ 3U ' _ *   
1

ZKHUH ' = ^'  'V ` LVDVXPRIWHUPVZKLFKFRUUHVSRQGVWRRQHQRGHHDFK

 P 6
/=
1
ÊÊ
= =
ORJ 3 ;
L  O 
L _ 3D ; L  'O   

8VLQJWKLVODVWHTXDWLRQZHFDQPD[LPL]HWKHFRQWULEXWLRQWRWKHORJOLNHOLKRRGRIHDFKQRGHLQWKH'%1LQGHSHQGHQWO\

.QRZQ6WUXFWXUH3DUWLDO2EVHUYDELOLW\

:KHQ VRPH RI WKH YDULDEOHV DUH QRW REVHUYDEOH WKH OLNHOLKRRG VXUIDFH EHFRPHV PXOWLPRGDO DQG ZH PXVW XVH LWHUDWLYH
PHWKRGV VXFK DV ([SHFWDWLRQ 0D[LPL]DWLRQ (0  RU JUDGLHQW DVFHQW WR ILQG D ORFDO PD[LPXP RI WKH 0/0$3 IXQFWLRQ
7KHVHSURFHGXUHVQHHGWRXVHLQIHUHQFHDOJRULWKPWRFRPSXWHWKHSDUDPHWHUVIRUHDFKQRGH7KHVHDOJRULWKPVDUHVNHWFKHGLQ
VHFWLRQDQGZLOOQRWEHGLVFXVVHGIXUWKHULQWKLVVHFWLRQ

8QNQRZQ6WUXFWXUH)XOO2EVHUYDELOLW\

,I ZH KDYH D NQRZOHGJH RI D QXPEHU DQG W\SH RI VRPH VWDWHV LQ WKH QHWZRUN EXW ZH GR QRW KDYH WKH NQRZOHGJH RI WKHLU
UHODWLRQDQGPXWXDOLQGHSHQGHQFHZHVKRXOGEHLQWHUHVWHGLQILQGLQJWKHZD\WROHDUQWKHVWUXFWXUHRI'%1IURPREVHUYHDEOH
GDWD DQG H[SHUW NQRZOHGJH DERXW WKH GRPDLQ 6LQFH WKH SUREOHPV RI WKLV NLQG FDQ HQODUJH WKHLUV GLPHQVLRQ LQ YDULRXV
VLWXDWLRQVZHDUHIRUFHGWRXVHSRZHURIPRGHUQFRPSXWHUV0DQ\SURSRVLWLRQVH[LVWWKDWDUHFRQFHUQHGZLWKWKHOHDUQLQJRI
'%1VWUXFWXUHDQGWKH\IXVHGLIIHUHQWWHFKQLTXHVDQGPHWKRGV7KH\LQYROYHYDULRXVPRGLILFDWLRQVLQVWUXFWXUHZKLFKFDQEH
FODVVLILHGDV  DGGLQJDQHGJHLQDQ\GLUHFWLRQWRWKHJUDSK  UHYHUVLQJWKHGLUHFWLRQRIDQ\HGJHLQWKHJUDSKDQG  
UHPRYLQJDQHGJHIURPWKHJUDSK7KHOLVWRISRVVLEOHFKDQJHVWKDWZHDUHSHUIRUPLQJLQ'%1VWUXFWXUHLVUHVWULFWHGWRWKRVH
WKDWNHHSWKHJUDSKDV'$*

$VFODLPHGLQ>@WRDFKLHYHWKLVOHDUQLQJWDVNZHQHHGWRSRVVHVV

 DPHWULFIRUFRPSDULQJSRWHQWLDOVWUXFWXUHVDJDLQVWHDFKRWKHU
 DVHDUFKDOJRULWKPIRUILQGLQJGLIIHUHQWSRWHQWLDOVWUXFWXUHV

 
$OJRULWKPVWKDWGHDOZLWKVXFKSUREOHPVFDQEHJURXSHGLQWRWZRFDWHJRULHVDFFRUGLQJWR>@2QHFDWHJRU\RIDOJRULWKPV
XVHVKHXULVWLFVHDUFKLQJPHWKRGVWRFRQVWUXFWDPRGHODQGWKHQHYDOXDWHVLWXVLQJDVFRULQJPHWKRG7KLVSURFHVVFRQWLQXHV
XQWLO ZH FRQFOXGH WKDW WKH VWUXFWXUH RI D QHZ PRGHO LV QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ EHWWHU WKDQ WKH ROG RQH 7KH RWKHU FDWHJRU\ RI
DOJRULWKPVFRQVWUXFWV%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNVE\DQDO\VLQJGHSHQGHQF\UHODWLRQVKLSVDPRQJQRGHV7KHGHSHQGHQF\UHODWLRQVKLSV
DUHPHDVXUHGXVLQJRQHNLQGRIVHYHUDO&RQGLWLRQDO,QGHSHQGHQFH &, WHVWVW\SHV

$FFRUGLQJ WR &KHQJ HW DO >@ LI ZH FRPSDUH WKHVH WZR W\SHV RI DOJRULWKPV ZH FRXOG FRQFOXGH WKDW WKH ILUVW FDWHJRU\ RI
DOJRULWKPVLVOHVVWLPHFRQVXPLQJLQWKHZRUVWFDVH ZKHQWKHXQGHUO\LQJ'$*LVGHQVHO\FRQQHFWHG EXWGRQRWILQGWKHEHVW
VROXWLRQIRUVRPHUHDOZRUOGGRPDLQGXHWRLWVKHXULVWLFQDWXUH)RUWKHVHFRQGW\SHRIDOJRULWKPVFHUWDLQDVVXPSWLRQVKDVWR
EHDGRSWHGEXWWKHVHDOJRULWKPV\LHOGDQHWZRUNVWUXFWXUHWKDWLVRSWLPDORUQHDUWKHRSWLPDOVROXWLRQ7KHUHVWULFWLRQRIWKHVH
DOJRULWKPVLVWKDWWKH&,WHVWVZLWKODUJHFRQGLWLRQVHWVPD\EHXQUHOLDEOHXQOHVVWKHYROXPHRIGDWDLVHQRUPRXV

&KHQJHWDO>@SURSRVHGRQHPHWKRGWKDWEHORQJVWRWKHVHFRQGFDWHJRU\RIDOJRULWKPV7KHEDVHRIWKHLUDVVXPSWLRQLVWKDW
UHDOZRUOGVLWXDWLRQVXVXDOO\\LHOGGHQVHO\FRQQHFWHGQHWZRUNVDQGWKDWWKH\UHYHDOYHU\IHZLQGHSHQGHQFHUHODWLRQVKLSVDQG
WKXV FRQWDLQ OLWWOH YDOXDEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ 6LQFH &, WHVWV ZLWK ODUJH FRQGLWLRQVHWVDUHFRPSXWDWLRQDOO\H[SHQVLYHDQGPD\EH
XQUHOLDEOHWKH\WU\WRDYRLG&,WHVWVZLWKODUJHFRQGLWLRQVHWVDQGXVHDVIHZ&,WHVWVDVSRVVLEOH

,QLQIRUPDWLRQWKHRU\WKHPXWXDOLQIRUPDWLRQRIWZRQRGHV ; DQG ; LVGHILQHGDV L M

3 [  [
, ;  ; =
L M Ê 3 [  [ ORJ 3 [ 3 [ 
[L  [ M
L M
L M
  
L M

DQGWKHFRQGLWLRQDOPXWXDOLQIRUPDWLRQDV

3 [  [ _ \
, ;  ; _ < = Ê 3 [  [  \ ORJ
L M
  
3 [ _ \ 3 [ _ \
L M L M

[L  [ M  \ L M

ZKHUH < LV D VHW RI ³GHSHQGHQW´ QRGHV ,Q SUHVHQWHG DOJRULWKP WKLV FRQGLWLRQDO PXWXDO LQIRUPDWLRQ LV XVHG DV &, WHVW WR
PHDVXUH WKH DYHUDJH LQIRUPDWLRQ EHWZHHQ WZR QRGHV ZKHQ WKHVWDWXVHVRIVRPHYDOXHVDUHFKDQJHGE\WKHFRQGLWLRQVHWRI
QRGHV<:KHQ , ;  ; _ < LVVPDOOHUWKDQDFHUWDLQWKUHVKROGYDOXHWKH\GVHSDUDWHWKLVWZRQRGHV ;  ; E\WKH
M L M

FRQGLWLRQVHW<DQGWKH\EHFDPHFRQGLWLRQDOO\LQGHSHQGHQWJLYHQQRGHV<

&RQVWUXFWLRQDOJRULWKPWKDW&KHQJHWDOSURSRVHGFRQVLVWHGRIWKUHHSKDVHVGUDIWLQJWKLFNHQLQJDQGWKLQQLQJDQGZLOOQRW
EHGHVFULEHGKHUH<RXFDQVHHGHWDLOVRIWKLVDOJRULWKPLQ>@

1RZ ZH ZLOO UHVXPH WR WKH DOJRULWKPV WKDW XVH KHXULVWLF VHDUFKLQJ LQ RUGHU WR OHDUQ WKH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH %1 RU '%1 ,W LV
FRPPRQO\DVVXPHGWKDWWKHJRDOLVWRILQGWKHPRGHOZLWKPD[LPXPOLNHOLKRRG*LYHQDWUDLQLQJGDWDVHW'DQGLQVWDQFHVRI
DOOYDULDEOHVLQWKHQHWZRUN;ZHZLOOIRFXVWRILQGD%D\HVLDQQHWZRUN % = *  Q WKDWEHVWPDWFKHV'+HUH*GHQRWHV
'$*ZKRVHYHUWLFHVFRUUHVSRQGWRUDQGRPYDULDEOHVRI; ^ ;   ;   ; 1 ` 7KHVHFRQGFRPSRQHQW Q UHSUHVHQWVWKH
VHWRISDUDPHWHUVWKDWTXDQWLILHVWKHQHWZRUN7KHQRWLRQRIEHVWPDWFKHVLVGHILQHGXVLQJDVFRULQJIXQFWLRQ$VZHVKDOOVHH
WKHUHH[LVWVHYHUDOVFRULQJIXQFWLRQVWKDWKDYHEHHQSURSRVHGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUH

7KLV SURFHGXUH VWDUWV E\ ILQGLQJ WKH PRGHO LQ ZKLFK WKH VXP RI WKH 0XWXDO ,QIRUPDWLRQ 0,  EHWZHHQ HDFK QRGH DQG LWV
SDUHQWV LV PD[LPDO 7KH WURXEOH LV WKDW 0, JUDSK ZLOO EH D FRPSOHWH JUDSK 6SHFLI\LQJ WKDW ZH SUHIHU VSDUVH PRGHOV E\
%D\HV¶UXOHZHJDLQWKH0$3PRGHOZKLFKPD[LPL]HV

3U ' _ * 3U *
3U * _ ' =   
3U '

,IZHWDNHWKHORJDULWKPVRIHTXDWLRQ  ZHZLOOVLPSOLI\WKHSUREOHPRIPLQLPL]LQJ

ORJ 3U * _ ' = ORJ 3U ' _ * + ORJ 3U * + F   

ZKHUHF 3U ' LVDFRQVWDQWLQGHSHQGHQWRI*7KLVDSSURDFKLVNQRZQDV0LQLPXP'HVFULSWLRQ/HQJWK 0'/ DSSURDFK

 
$Q H[DFW %D\HVLDQ DSSURDFK WR PRGHO VHOHFWLRQ LV XVXDOO\ XQIHDVLEOH VLQFH LW LQYROYHV FRPSXWLQJ WKH PDUJLQDO OLNHOLKRRG
3U ' = Ê 3U ' *  ZKLFK LV D VXP RYHU DQ H[SRQHQWLDO QXPEHU RI PRGHOV +RZHYHU ZH FDQ XVH DV\PSWRWLF
*
DSSUR[LPDWLRQWRWKHSRVWHULRUFDOOHG%D\HVLDQ,QIRUPDWLRQ&ULWHULRQ %,& DQG%'HVFRUH%RWKRIWKHVHVFRUHVFRPELQHWKH
OLNHOLKRRG RI WKH GDWD DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH QHWZRUN  ORJ 3U ' _ %  ZLWK VRPH SHQDOW\ UHODWLQJ WR WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI WKH
QHWZRUN :KHQ OHDUQLQJ WKH VWUXFWXUH RI %1V WKLV FRPSOH[LW\ SHQDOW\ LV HVVHQWLDO IRU PRGHOOLQJ WKH '%1V VLQFH WKH 0/
QHWZRUNLVXVXDOO\FRPSOHWHO\FRQQHFWHGQHWZRUN>@

%D\HVLDQ,QIRUPDWLRQ&ULWHULRQLVGHILQHGDVIROORZV

Ö - ORJ 1  * 
ORJ 3U * _ '   ORJ 3U ' _ *  Q  
*


Ö LVWKH0/HVWLPDWHRIWKHSDUDPHWHUV7KH%,&
ZKHUH1LVWKHQXPEHURIVDPSOHV*LVWKHGLPHQVLRQRIWKHPRGHODQG Q *
VFRUHKDVWZRLPSRUWDQWSURSHUWLHV)LUVWVLQFHZHDUHLQORJGRPDLQWKHVFRUHRID'%1FDQEHZULWWHQDVDVXPRIWHUPV
ZKHUHHDFKWHUPFDOFXODWHWKHVFRUHIRUFKRVHQYDULDEOHDQGLWVSDUHQWV7KLVLPSOLHVWKDWDORFDOFKDQJHRIQRGH¶VYDOXHVWKDW
EHORQJVWRRQHIDPLO\ZRXOGDIIHFWRQO\RQHRIWKHVHWHUPV7KHRWKHUSURSHUW\LVWKDWWKHWHUPWKDWHYDOXDWHV ; >W @ JLYHQLWV
L

SDUHQWVLVDIXQFWLRQRIWKHDSSURSULDWHFRXQWVIRUWKDWIDPLO\*LYHQWKLVZHFDQVHDUFKIRUWKHEHVWVWUXFWXUHIRUWKHLQLWLDO
QHWZRUNLQGHSHQGHQWO\RIWKHVHDUFKIRUWKHEHVWVWUXFWXUHIRUWKHWUDQVLWLRQQHWZRUN

7KHPRVWLPSRUWDQWFRQFOXVLRQRIWKLVVHFWLRQLVWKDWOHDUQLQJ'%1VIURPFRPSOHWHGDWDLQEDVLFXVHVWKHVDPHDOJRULWKPVDV
OHDUQLQJ%1VIURPFRPSOHWHGDWD

8QNQRZQ6WUXFWXUH3DUWLDO2EVHUYDELOLW\

0RVWRIWKHUHDOZRUOGSURFHVVHVGRQRWKDYHVWUXFWXUHWKDWFDQEHHDVLO\GLVWLQJXLVKHG)UHTXHQWO\QRWDOORIWKHUHDOZRUOG
VWDWHVFDQEHPHDVXUHGRUREVHUYHG7KLVLQFRPSOHWHGDWDDQGODFNRIDELOLW\WRREVHUYHVRPHFUXFLDOLQIRUPDWLRQGHPDQGVD
SRZHUIXOWRROIRULQFRUSRUDWLQJDOOWKHVPDOOSHDFHVRILQIRUPDWLRQWKDWZHFDQJDWKHU,IZHLQFOXGHFKDQJHVWKDWDUHSUHVHQW
LQ DOPRVW DOO V\VWHPV LQ WLPH WKH SUREOHP ZLOO IXUWKHU DULVH 'HSHQGHQFLHV LQ WKHVH SURFHVVHV FRQFHUQLQJ WLPH FDQ EH
EHWZHHQ GLIIHUHQW WLPH SRLQWV DQG LQWHUYDOV 7KLV PHDQV WKDW HYHQLIWKHSURFHVVLVDVWDWLRQDU\0DUNRYSURFHVVWKHSDUWLDO
REVHUYDWLRQVZHKDYHPD\QRWVDWLVI\0DUNRYSURSHUW\

7KH PRVW FRPPRQO\ XVHG PHWKRG WR VLPSOLI\ WKLV SUREOHP LV WKH (0 DOJRULWKP 7KH (VWHS RI (0 XVHV WKH FXUUHQWO\
HVWLPDWHG SDUDPHWHUV WR FRPSOHWH WKH GDWD 7KLV WDVN LV DFFRPSOLVKHG E\ FRPSXWLQJ WKH H[SHFWHG FRXQWV 7KH 0VWHS WKHQ
UHFDOFXODWHVWKHPD[LPXPOLNHOLKRRGSDUDPHWHUYDOXHVFRQVLGHULQJWKDWWKHH[SHFWHGYDOXHVZHUHWUXHREVHUYHGYDOXHV(DFK
(0F\FOHLVJXDUDQWLHGWRLPSURYHWKHOLNHOLKRRGRIWKHGDWDJLYHQWKHPRGHOXQWLOLWUHDFKHVDORFDOPLQLPXP

+RZHYHU (0 DOJRULWKP LV GHYHORSHG WR FRPSXWH WKH SDUDPHWHUV RI D '%1 DQG QHHGV WR EH DGMXVWHG IRU OHDUQLQJ D '%1
VWUXFWXUH IURP LQFRPSOHWH GDWD 7KHUH DUH IHZ DOJRULWKPV WKDW DUH LQ XVH IRU WKDW SXUSRVH 0RGHO6HOHFWLRQ (0 06(0 
DOJRULWKP KDV EHHQ PRVWO\ XVHG IRU WKLV SXUSRVH EXW WKH DOJRULWKP FDOOHG 6WUXFWXUDO (0 6(0  DOJRULWKP \LHOGV EHWWHU
UHVXOWV6(0DOJRULWKPKDVWKHVDPH(VWHSDV(0FRPSOHWLQJWKHGDWDE\FRPSXWLQJH[SHFWHGFRXQWVEDVHGRQWKHFXUUHQW
VWUXFWXUHDQGSDUDPHWHUV7KH0VWHSKDVWZRSDUWV,QILUVWLWLVXVHGLQWKHVDPHZD\DVGHVFULEHGDERYHIRUUHFDOFXODWLQJ
PD[LPXPOLNHOLKRRG,QWKHVHFRQGSDUWWKH0VWHSRI6(0FDQXVHWKHH[SHFWHGFRXQWVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHFXUUHQWVWUXFWXUHWR
HYDOXDWH DQ\ RWKHU FDQGLGDWH VWUXFWXUH 7KLV LV XVXDOO\ GRQH E\ SHUIRUPLQJ D FRPSOHWH VHDUFK RYHU DOO SRVVLEOH VWUXFWXUHV
VLPLODU WR RQH ZH KDYH 7KH NH\ VWHS LQ 6(0 DOJRULWKP LV WR XVH DQ H[LVWLQJ '%1 WR FRPSOHWH WKH GDWD $OO SRVVLEOH
WUDMHFWRULHV LHMRLQWDVVLJQPHQWVWRDOOWKHYDULDEOHVLQWKHWUDLQLQJVHTXHQFH WKDWDUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHSDUWLDOLQIRUPDWLRQ
ZH KDYH DUH FRQVLGHUHG 7KHQ ZH DYHUDJH WKH FRXQWV LQ HDFK RQH RI WKHVH WUDMHFWRULHV EDVHG RQ WKH SUREDELOLW\ WKDW RXU
FXUUHQWPRGHODVVLJQVWRWKDWWUDMHFWRU\>@

7KH FRPSXWDWLRQDO WDVN IRU ZKLFK FDQ EH VDLG WR EH WKH PRVW GHVLULQJ LQ WKH DERYH SURFHGXUH LV FRPSXWLQJ WKH H[SHFWHG
FRXQWVIRUHDFKIDPLO\LQWKH'%17KXVWKHNH\UHTXLUHPHQWLVWRFRPSXWHWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWDIDPLO\RIQRGHVWDNHVRQD
FHUWDLQVHWRIYDOXHVJLYHQWKHHYLGHQFH7KHHYLGHQFHFDQEHFRQVLVWHGRIWKHSDVWREVHUYDWLRQVDVZHOODVWKHIXWXUHRQHV
7KLV FDQ EH GRQH HIILFLHQWO\ E\ FRQYHUWLQJ WKH '%1 WR MRLQ WUHH DQG XVLQJ DOJRULWKP VLPLODU WR WKH IRUZDUGVEDFNZDUGV
DOJRULWKPXVHGLQ+00V

 
'LIIHUHQW$SSURDFKHVIRU,QFRUSRUDWLQJ7LPHLQ%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV
,WLVH[WUHPHO\GLIILFXOWWRPRGHOWLPHDQGXQFHUWDLQW\LQDZD\WKDWFOHDUO\DQGDGHTXDWHO\UHSUHVHQWVWKHSUREOHPGRPDLQVDW
KDQG 7KH VWXG\ RI SUREDELOLVWLF WHPSRUDO IRUPDOLVPV LV UHODWLYHO\ QHZ DQG H[LVWLQJ DSSURDFKHV IRU LQWHJUDWLQJ WLPH DQG
XQFHUWDLQW\UHO\RQFRPSURPLVHVLQWKHLUUHSUHVHQWDWLRQVRIHLWKHUWLPHRUXQFHUWDLQW\RUERWK

5HDOZRUOG GRPDLQV WKDW UHTXLUH D XQLILHG PRGHO RI WLPH DQG XQFHUWDLQW\ LQFOXGH GHDOLQJ ZLWK UHDOWLPH V\VWHP GLDJQRVLV
VWRU\XQGHUVWDQGLQJSODQQLQJDQGVFKHGXOLQJORJLVWLFVUHVRXUFHPDQDJHPHQWDVZHOODVILQDQFLDOIRUHFDVWLQJ3URFHVVHVLQ
WKHVHGRPDLQVFKDQJHRYHUWLPHLQUHVSRQVHWRERWKLQWHUQDODQGH[WHUQDOVWLPXOLDVZHOODVWRWKHIORZRIWLPHLWVHOI

([WHQGLQJWKH%1VWRUHSUHVHQWWLPHGRPDLQLVVKRZQWREHGLIILFXOWSUREOHP7KHUHIRUHGLIIHUHQWPRGHOVIRULQFRUSRUDWLQJ
WLPHLQWRQHWZRUNUHSUHVHQWDWLRQZHUHSUHVHQWHG6RPHRIWKHVHWHFKQLTXHVZLOOEHSUHVHQWHGLQIROORZLQJVHFWLRQV$OWKRXJK
JHQHUDOFODVVLILFDWLRQRIWKHVHPRGHOVKDVQRWEHHQGRQH\HWZHZLOOFODVVLI\WKHPLQWRWKUHHEURDGFDWHJRULHV

 0RGHOVWKDWXVHVWDWLF%1VDQGIRUPDOJUDPPDUVWRUHSUHVHQWWHPSRUDOGLPHQVLRQ NQRZQDV3UREDELOLVWLF7HPSRUDO


1HWZRUNV±371V 
 0RGHOVWKDWXVHPL[WXUHRISUREDELOLVWLFDQGQRQSUREDELOLVWLFIUDPHZRUNVDQG
 0RGHOVWKDWLQWURGXFHWHPSRUDOQRGHVLQWRVWDWLF%1VVWUXFWXUHWRUHSUHVHQWWLPHGHSHQGHQFH

)LUVW ZH ZLOO SUHVHQW VRPH HDUOLHVW ZRUN WKDW GHVFULEHV SRVVLEOH UHDOLVDWLRQ RI WLPH GHSHQGHQW %1V DV ZHOO DV VRPH EDVLF
LGHDVDERXWWKLVFRQFHSW7KHQZHZLOOGHVFULEHWKHVHWKUHHPRGHOVRIG\QDPLF WHPSRUDO %1V6LQFHILUVWWZRFDWHJRULHV
DUHGHYHORSHGIRUVSHFLDOSXUSRVHVDQGKDVDOLPLWHGXVHIXOQHVVZHZLOOFRQFHQWUDWHRQWKLUGFDWHJRU\$QRWKHUUHDVRQIRU
WKLV GHFLVLRQ LV WKDW RQO\ WKLUG FDWHJRU\ UHWDLQ SXUH %1VSUREDELOLVWLFIUDPHZRUNDQGMXVWDGGWHPSRUDOHGJHVWRWKLVPDLQ
VWUXFWXUH

(DUOLHVW:RUNRQ'\QDPLF 7HPSRUDO %D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV

2QH RI WKH ILUVW PRGHOV SUHVHQWHG IRU WHPSRUDO UHDVRQLQJ LQ XQFHUWDLQ HYHQWV ZDV %HU]XLQL¶V PRGHO >@ %HU]XLQL XVHV
%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNVIRUWHPSRUDOUHDVRQLQJDERXWFDXVDOLW\+LVIRUPDOLVPFRQVLGHUVSDUWRIWKHZRUOGRIHDFKSHULRGLQWLPH
WKDW LV RI RXU LQWHUHVW DV DQ DGGLWLRQDO UDQGRP YDULDEOH LQ WKH QHWZRUN 7KLV PD\ FRQVLGHUDEO\ LQFUHDVH WKH QXPEHU RI
YDULDEOHVLQWKHQHWZRUNDQGWKHFRPSOH[LW\RILQIHUHQFHDQGLQWKHH[WUHPHVLWXDWLRQVFDQPDNHLQIHUHQFHSURFHVVLQWUDFWDEOH

6LJQLILFDQWUHVHDUFKKDVEHHQGRQHH[SORULQJWLPHQHWV DOVRFDOOHGWLPHVOLFH%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNV >@7KHVHDSSURDFKHVDUH


EXLOWRQWKHVWURQJSUREDELOLVWLFVHPDQWLFVRI%1VIRUH[SUHVVLQJXQFHUWDLQW\'HDQDQG.D]DQDZD>@LQWKHLUHDUOLHUZRUN
XVHVXUYLYRUIXQFWLRQWRUHSUHVHQWFKDQJLQJEHOLHIVZLWKWLPH%RWKHYHQWVDQGIDFWVLQWKLVPRGHODUHUHSUHVHQWHGE\UDQGRP
YDULDEOHV7KHVHWHPSRUDOLW\UHSUHVHQWDWLRQVDOORZLQIHUHQFHWKDWFDQEHSUHGLFWHGDQGDUDEOHEXWGRQRWVHHPDEOHWRPDNH
LQIHUHQFH DERXW LQGHSHQGHQW WLPH SRLQWV 'DJXP HW DO >@ XVH D G\QDPLF EHOLHI QHWZRUN IRU IRUHFDVWLQJ 7HPSRUDO
$EGXFWLRQ3UREOHP 7$3 ZDVSUHVHQWHGE\6DQWRV>@,QWKLVPRGHOKHXVHVDQLQWHUYDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWLPH,QWKH7$3
HDFKHYHQWKDVDQDVVRFLDWHGLQWHUYDOGXULQJZKLFKWKHHYHQWRFFXUV5HODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQHYHQWVDUHH[SUHVVHGDVGLUHFWHG
HGJHVIURPFDXVHWRHIIHFWZLWKLQDZHLJKWHGDQGRUGLUHFWHGDF\FOLFJUDSKVWUXFWXUH

7HPSRUDOQHWZRUNPRGHOVQRPDWWHUKRZWKH\DUHUHSUHVHQWHGKDYHRQHFRPPRQJRDOWRVKRZKRZUDQGRPYDULDEOHVDWWLPH
WDUHDIIHFWHGE\VWDWLFYDULDEOHVDWWLPHWDVZHOODVE\WKHUDQGRPYDULDEOHVDWWLPHW

7HPSRUDO%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV

2QH RI WKH HDUOLHVW ZRUN WKDW LQWURGXFH WHPSRUDO GLPHQVLRQ LQ %D\HVLDQ QHWZRUNV LQ D '%1 PDQQHU  ZDV 3URYDQ¶V WKHVH
>@ +H VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKH WHPSRUDO HYROXWLRQ RI WKH V\VWHP FRXOG EH PRGHOOHG XVLQJ D WLPHVHULHVSURFHVV7KHUHIRUHKH
SURSRVHGWKDW³WHPSRUDODUFV´FRXOGEHXVHGIRUFRQQHFWLQJQRGHVLQWKH%1RYHUGLIIHUHQWWLPHLQWHUYDOV7KLVPHDQVWKDWLI
ZHKDYHQ%1PRGHOVIRUGLIIHUHQWWLPHLQVWDQFHVLH %1  %1   %1 ZHFRXOGXVHWKHVHWHPSRUDODUFVWRUHSUHVHQWD
Q

WHPSRUDOVHTXHQFHRI%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNVFDOOHGD7HPSRUDO%1RU7%1LQKLVZRUNEXWODWHUNQRZQDV'%1V

+H FRQVLGHUV WKUHH W\SHV RI DSSURDFKHV IRU 7%1 FRQVWUXFWLRQ ZKLFK PDNH GLIIHUHQW WUDGHRIIV   NQRZOHGJH EDVH
FRQVWUXFWLRQDSSURDFKHVZKLFKSURGXFHWKHQHWZRUNDWHDFKWLPHLQWHUYDOEDVHGRQDYDLODEOHGDWD  GRPDLQVSHFLILFWLPH
VHULHV DSSURDFKHV ZKLFK PRGHO WKH HYROXWLRQ RI D SDUVLPRQLRXV VXEVHW RI YDULDEOHV DQG   PRGHO VHOHFWLRQ DSSURDFKHV
ZKLFKWULHVWRPLQLPL]HVRPHVFRUHRIWKHSUHGLFWLYHDFFXUDF\RIWKHPRGHOZLWKRXWLQWURGXFLQJWRRPDQ\SDUDPHWHUV

)RU7%1ZHFDQXVHKHXULVWLFVWRPRGHOWKHWHPSRUDOHYROXWLRQRIRQO\DVXEVHWRIYDULDEOHV7ZRGLIIHUHQWPRGHOVIRUZKLFK
YDULDEOHVVKRXOGHYROYHDUHSRVVLEOH WKHQXPEHULQJLQVHTXHOLVWDNHQIURP3URYDQ¶VZRUN>@ 
 
 'ULYLQJYDULDEOHV7KLVDSSURDFKHQWDLOVDGRPDLQGHSHQGHQWLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIWKHV\VWHPYDULDEOHVWKDWDUHDFWXDOO\
HYROYLQJ GULYLQJ FKDQJHV LQ RWKHU V\VWHP YDULDEOHV 7R WKLV HIIHFW ZH SDUWLWLRQ WKH V\VWHP YDULDEOHV LQWR D VHW RI
G\QDPLFRUHYROYLQJYDULDEOHVDQGDVHWRIYDULDEOHVZKLFKDUHHLWKHUFRQVWDQWRUZKRVHFKDQJHVDUHGXHWRVRPH
G\QDPLF YDULDEOHV )RU FRPSOHWHQHVV ZH DVVXPH D VHW RIYDULDEOHVWKDWDUHLQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHG\QDPLFYDULDEOHV
7KLVSDUWLWLRQVKRXOGEHPDGHWRWUDGHRIIPRGHODFFXUDF\IRUFRPSXWDWLRQDOHIILFLHQF\
 2EVHUYHGYDULDEOHV7KLVDSSURDFKVHHNVWRPRGHOWKHILQGLQJVWKDWDUHWKHHYLGHQFHRIWKHLQWHUQDOHYROXWLRQRIWKH
V\VWHP,IWKHVHYDULDEOHVDUHQRWWKHRQHVWKDWDUHGULYLQJWKHSURFHVVXQGHUVWXG\WKHQRQHLVHVWLPDWLQJWKHYDOXHV
RIWKHGULYLQJYDULDEOHVIURPWKHILQGLQJVXVLQJWKHPRGHOWRUHODWHWKHWZRFODVVHVRIYDULDEOHV

,Q WKH SURSRVDO RI WKH DSSURDFK $FXWH $EGRPLQDO 3DLQ PRGHO  $$3  ZDV SUHVHQWHG $$3 KDV WKUHH YDULDEOH W\SHV
REVHUYDEOHLQWHUPHGLDWH ODWHQW DQGGLVHDVHYDULDEOHV

&KDUDFWHULVWLFVRI7HPSRUDO1HWZRUNV

$ SUREDELOLVWLF WHPSRUDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ OLNH PRVW RWKHU WHPSRUDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV PXVW DGGUHVV WKH LVVXH RI GLVFUHWHYHUVXV
FRQWLQXRXV WLPH 'LVFUHWH WLPH LV XVHIXO IRU YDULRXV DSSOLFDWLRQV DQG VHHPV VLPSOHU WR GHDO ZLWK WKDQ FRQWLQXRXV WLPH
+RZHYHULQWHUYDOEDVHGGHQVHWLPHVHHPVPRUHQDWXUDODQGHOHJDQWIRUUHDVRQLQJ,QWHPSRUDOORJLFVERWKUHSUHVHQWDWLRQVDUH
XVHG7KHDLPRIWKLVVHFWLRQLVWRH[SODLQWKHZD\RILQFRUSRUDWLQJERWKPHWKRGVLQ'%1VOLNHLWZDVGHVFULEHGLQ>@7KLV
LV SRVVLEOH EHFDXVH GLVFUHWH WLPH FRUUHVSRQGV WR D GLVFUHWH SUREDELOLW\ DQG FRQWLQXRXV WLPH FRUUHVSRQGV WR FRQWLQXRXV
SUREDELOLW\

3UREDELOLW\WKHRU\FDQKDQGOHERWKWKLVFDVHV,QWKHFRQWLQXRXVFDVHSUREDELOLW\GHQVLW\IXQFWLRQVDUHGHILQHGDVIXQFWLRQVRI
WLPH ,Q WKH GLVFUHWH FDVH SUREDELOLWLHV WKHPVHOYHV DUH IXQFWLRQV RI WLPH )RU FRQWLQXRXV WLPH WKH HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH
SUREDELOLW\RIWKHWUXWKRIFHUWDLQIOXHQWVWDWHVEHWZHHQWZRLQVWDQWVPDUNLQJDSHULRGLVWKHLQWHJUDORIWKHSGIEHWZHHQWKRVH
WZRLQVWDQWV

7KHVHFRQGEDVLFLVVXHLVKRZWRDVVRFLDWHSUREDELOLWLHVDQGWLPH:HFDQIROORZ%HU]XLQL¶VQHWZRUNV>@DQGFRQVLGHUWLPH
DVUDQGRPYDULDEOHVRUZHFDQSDUDPHWHULVHSUREDELOLWLHVZLWKWLPH5HSUHVHQWLQJWLPHE\DUDQGRPYDULDEOHFRPSOLFDWHVWKH
QHWZRUNE\LQFUHDVLQJWKHQXPEHURIQRGHV,WFDQKDSSHQWKDWVXFKWHPSRUDOYDULDEOHVGRQRWPHHWWKHGHILQLWLRQRIDUDQGRP
YDULDEOH$UDQGRPYDULDEOHPD\EHGHILQHGURXJKO\DVDYDULDEOHWKDWWDNHVRQGLIIHUHQWYDOXHVEHFDXVHRIFKDQFH7UHDWLQJ
WKHSUREDELOLWLHVDVIXQFWLRQVRIWLPHUHVXOWLQDVLPSOHUQHWZRUN

7HPSRUDO5HDVRQLQJ

)URP D WHPSRUDO UHDVRQLQJ YLHZSRLQW WKHUH DUH DW OHDVW WZR W\SHV RI SUREDELOLVWLF UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ WZR GLIIHUHQW WLPH
SRLQWVRUSHULRGV  WKH\PD\EHFRPSOHWHO\LQGHSHQGHQWRIHDFKRWKHU XQUHODWHG RU  GHSHQGHG UHODWHG ,IEHOLHILQ
IOXHQWVWDWH;DWWLPH W LVQRWDIIHFWHGE\WKHNQRZOHGJHRIVWDWH<DWDQRWKHUWLPH W WKDQ;DW W LVWHPSRUDOO\LQGHSHQGHQW
L M L

RI < DW WLPH W  7KLV LQGHSHQGHQFH PHDQV WKDW WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI ; DW W  DQG WKDW RI < LQ W  DUH UHODWHG E\
M L M

3U ; W _ < W = 3U ; W 
L M L

7ZR LQWHUHVWLQJ VSHFLDO FDVHV RI UHDVRQLQJ DERXW UHODWHG WLPH SRLQWV WKDW ZH QHHG WR FRQVLGHU LQ RXU VSHFXODWLRQ DUH
SHUVLVWHQFH DQG FDXVDWLRQ )RU WKH LQVWDQWDQHRXV VWDQGSRLQW WHPSRUDO UHDVRQLQJ LV D VHW RI DWHPSRUDO %D\HVLDQ QHWZRUNV
H[FHSWIRUWKHSUREDELOLWLHVDVWKH\PXVWFRUUHVSRQGWRWKHWLPHSRLQWXQGHUFRQVLGHUDWLRQ,IZHDUHWDONLQJDERXWGHSHQGHQW
WLPHLQVWDQFHV7DILNHWDO>@SURSRVHGWKDWZHVKRXOGFRQVLGHUSUREDELOLW\WUDQVIHUIXQFWLRQ VLPLODUWRSGI EHWZHHQVWDWHV
RIDGLIIHUHQWWLPHLQVWDQFHVDQGHYHQWV(YHQWVDUHFKDQJHVRIVWDWHVRIREVHUYHGVLWXDWLRQV YDULDEOH RUVRPHRFFXUUHQFH$
SUREDELOLW\ WUDQVIHU IXQFWLRQ UHSUHVHQWV WKH HIIHFW RI DQ HYHQW RQ RWKHU YDULDEOHV $ SUREDELOLW\ WUDQVIHU IXQFWLRQ GHILQHV D
UHODWLRQEHWZHHQ3U ;_H DWWKHWLPHWIRUDOOWZKHUH;LVDUDQGRPYDULDEOHDQGHLVDQHYHQWW\SH

,PSRUWDQW LVVXH DERXW WHPSRUDO %1V LV DERXW WKH SXUSRVH RI WKH QHWZRUN ,W LV UHODWHG WR WLPH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG V\VWHP
DSSOLFDWLRQ,WFRQVLGHUVPRQLWRULQJDQGRFFDVLRQDOVDPSOLQJ7KHGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQPRQLWRULQJDQGRFFDVLRQDOVDPSOLQJLV
DFULWLFDORQH,IRFFDVLRQDOVDPSOLQJLVGRQHIUHTXHQWO\HQRXJKLWLVHTXLYDOHQWWRPRQLWRULQJ7KHOLPLWDWZKLFKVDPSOLQJ
FDQUHSODFHFRQWLQXRXVPRQLWRULQJDFFRUGLQJWRLQIRUPDWLRQWKHRU\LVHTXDOWRWZLFHWKHPD[LPXPIUHTXHQF\LQWKHVLJQDO

3UREDELOLVWLF7HPSRUDO1HWZRUNV 371 

7KLV FDWHJRU\ RI WHPSRUDO QHWZRUNV WULHV WR LQFRUSRUDWH WLPH LQWR SUREDELOLVWLF IUDPHZRUN LQWURGXFLQJ JUDPPDU UXOHV
3UHVHUYDWLRQ RI VWDWLF %1V VWUXFWXUH ZLOO HQDEOH XVH RI SRZHUIXO %1 LQIHUHQFH WHFKQLTXH DGMXVWHG IRU WKLV VSHFLILF W\SH RI
QHWZRUNDQGJUDPPDUZLOOLQWURGXFHWHPSRUDOUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQHYHQWV

 
<RXQJ>@GHILQHWKH3UREDELOLVWLF7HPSRUDO1HWZRUN 371 DVDPRGHOIRUUHSUHVHQWLQJWHPSRUDODQGDWHPSRUDOLQIRUPDWLRQ
ZKLOH UHPDLQLQJ IXOO\ SUREDELOLVWLF ,Q WKLV PDQQHU KH SURSRVHV D WHFKQLTXH WKDW SHUPLWV UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WLPHFRQVWUDLQHG
FDXVDOLW\7KHRFFXUUHQFHRIVSHFLILFHYHQWDVZHOODVSHULRGLFDQGUHFXUUHQWQDWXUHRIDSURFHVVOLHVLQWKHEDVHRIWKHVHWLPH
FRQVWUDLQWV %D\HVLDQ QHWZRUNV IRUP WKH IRXQGDWLRQ RI WKH V\VWHP WKDW KDV WR GHDO ZLWK SUREDELOLVWLF FRQGLWLRQV ZKHUHDV
$OOHQ¶VLQWHUYDOV\VWHPDQGKLVWKLUWHHQUHODWLRQVSURYLGHWKHWHPSRUDOEDVLV

$OOHQ¶VLQWHUYDODOJHEUD>@LVEDVHGRQUHODWLRQVRQWKHLQWHUYDOV(DFKHYHQWKDVDQDVVRFLDWHGLQWHUYDOGHQRWHG >D E@ 
ZKHUH D  LV WKH VWDUWLQJ WLPH SRLQW DQG E LV WKH WHUPLQDWLRQ SRLQW 7KH UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ LQWHUYDOV DUH
^= < > P PL G  GL V VL I  IL R RL` VHH 7DEOH ,WLVLPSRUWDQWWRQRWHWKDWEHVLGHVWKHVHWKLUWHHQUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQ
LQWHUYDOVWKHUHH[LVWRQO\WUHHUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQWLPHSRLQWVSUHFHGHVHTXDOVDQGIROORZV

7DEOHUHODWLRQVRI$OOHQ¶VLQWHUYDODOJHEUD

6\PERO 1DPH 5HODWLRQ


  (TXDOV 
 ! 3UHFHGHV 
P PL 0HHWV 
G GL 'XULQJ 
V VL 6WDUWV 
I IL )LQLVKHV 
R RL 2YHUODSV 
2I VSHFLDO LPSRUWDQFH IRU WKH SXUSRVH RI LQFRUSRUDWLQJ WKLV WLPH UHODWLRQV ZLWK SUREDELOLVWLF IUDPHZRUN LV $OOHQ¶V XVH RI
GLVMXQFWLYHVHWVWRH[SUHVVXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHH[DFWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQLQWHUYDOV IRUH[DPSOH³LQWHUYDO$SUHFHGHVRUPHHWV
LQWHUYDO %´ LV ZULWWHQ DV $^P`%  $V WKH DXWKRU VDLG ³WKH PRGHO VWULFWO\ DGKHUHV WR WKH SKLORVRSK\ WKDW LQWHUYDOV DUH
SULPLWLYHDQGWKDWWKH\KDYHQRQ]HURGXUDWLRQLQRUGHUWRNHHSRXWVRPHSDUDGR[HV´

%1VFDQEHGHILQHGDVSUREDELOLVWLFLQWHQVLRQDOV\VWHPVLQZKLFKLQGHSHQGHQFHDVVXPSWLRQVDUHXVHGWRUHVWULFWUHOHYDQFH,Q
JHQHUDO LI ZH ZDQW WR LQYHVWLJDWH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI VRPH UHDO ZRUOG SURFHVV ZH DUH VHDUFKLQJ IRU WKH ZRUOG VWDWH ZLWK WKH
KLJKHVWOLNHOLKRRG7KLVLVFDOOHGEHOLHIUHYLVLRQLQWKLVZRUN%HOLHIUHYLVLRQLVDIRUPRIDEGXFWLYHUHDVRQLQJ

,I : LV WKH VHW RI DOO UDQGRP YDULDEOHV LQ %1 ZH FKRRVH IRU UHDO ZRUOG PRGHO DQG ( LV RXU JLYHQHYLGHQFHDQ\FRPSOHWH
LQVWDQWLDWLRQ WR DOO UDQGRP YDULDEOHV WKDW DUH SUHVHQW LQ : ZKLFK DUH FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK H H ³ (  LV FDOOHG H[SODQDWLRQ RU
Ö  VXFK WKDW
LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI H >@ 7KHUHIRUH ZH FDQ VWDWH WKH SUREOHP DV ILQGLQJ DQ H[SODQDWLRQ Z
3U ZÖ _ H = PD[ 3U Z _ H  ZÖ LVWHUPHGDVWKHPRVWSUREDEOHH[SODQDWLRQ7KHMRLQWSUREDELOLW\RIDQ\H[SODQDWLRQZ
Z

Z = ;  = [ ¾ ;  = [ ¾  ¾ ; P = [P   

ZKHUH ;   ;   ; P  LV DQ DUELWUDU\ RUGHULQJ RI UDQGRP YDULDEOHV LQ : DQG [  LV VRPH DVVLJQPHQW WR UDQGRP YDULDEOH
; LVIRXQGXVLQJFKDLQUXOH
L

3U Z = 3U [P _ [P -  [ 3U [P - _ [P -  [  3U [ _ [ 3U [   

:KLOH WKHUH LV GHEDWH LQ ERWK SKLORVRSK\ DQGDUWLILFLDOLQWHOOLJHQFHDVWRZKLFKUHSUHVHQWDWLRQSRLQWVRULQWHUYDOVLVPRVW


DSSURSULDWHLWFDQEHVDLGWKDWWKHLQWHUYDOVFDQEHUHSUHVHQWHGZLWKEHJLQQLQJDQGHQGSRLQWVLQDSRLQWEDVHGDSSURDFK7KLV
ZDVWKHOHDGLQJLGHDLQWKLVZRUN

3UREDELOLVWLF WHPSRUDO QHWZRUNV SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV VHFWLRQ ZHUH IRFXVHG RQ H[SORULQJ UHFXUUHQFH DQG SHULRGLFLW\ WHPSRUDO
VSDFLQJ EHWZHHQ FDXVH DQG HIIHFW DQG PRGHOOLQJ WKH WLPHRIUHIHUHQFH )RU IXUWKHU GHWDLOV UHIHU WR >@ +RZHYHU ZRUN
SUHVHQWHGLQWKDWSDSHUKDVQRWIXOILOOHGLWVFRPSOHWHQHVVVLQFHWKHUHLVDORWRIVSDFHIRUIXUWKHULPSURYHPHQWDQGUHVHDUFK
7KH IRUPXODWLRQV SUHVHQWHG LQ >@ QHHG WR EH H[WHQGHG WR SHUIRUP EHOLHI XSGDWLQJ $V RQH RI PRVW LQWHUHVWLQJ DQG
FKDOOHQJLQJSUREOHPVZKLFKQHHGIXUWKHULQYHVWLJDWLRQLVPRGHOOLQJFRQWLQXRXVFKDQJHVRIREVHUYHGIDFWV

 
371PRGHO\LHOGVDJRRGLQIHUHQFHUHVXOWRQUHSHWLWLYHUHJXODUWLPHHYHQWVDQGVLWXDWLRQ,WFRXOGEHLPSOHPHQWHGIRUVORZ
FKDQJLQJ DQG WLPH RYHUODSSLQJ HYHQWV EXW QRW IRU UHDO WLPH RU QHDU UHDO WLPH LQIHUHQFH )RU WKDW SXUSRVH ZH PXVW UHIHU WR
'%1VZKLFKDUHGHVFULEHGLQQH[WVHFWLRQV

'%1VDVD0L[WXUHRI3UREDELOLVWLFDQGQRQ3UREDELOLVWLF6FKHPDV

)RU UHSUHVHQWLQJ VRPH UHDO ZRUOG HYHQWV LW LV QRW DOZD\V SRVVLEOH WR HPSOR\ RQO\ SUREDELOLVWLF IUDPHZRUN DQG VLPSOH
JUDPPDU :H PD\ QHHG WR FRPELQH VHYHUDO SUREDELOLVWLF WRROV RU LQWURGXFH VRPH QRYHO WRROV IRU GHVFULELQJ D UHDO ZRUOG
SURFHVV

+LGGHQ0DUNRY0RGHOVDUHXVXDOO\XVHGDVDSUREDELOLVWLFWRROIRUSDWWHUQYDU\LQJSUREOHPV1DWXUDOO\ILUVWLGHDZRXOGEHWR
LQWHJUDWHWKHVHPRGHOVZLWKDVWDWLFVWUXFWXUHRI%1V2QHRIDSSURDFKHVEDVHGRQWKLVLGHDZLOOEHGHVFULEHGLQVHFWLRQ
,WH[SODLQVKRZZHFDQXVH%1VLQFRQMXQFWLRQZLWKSKDVHW\SHGLVWULEXWLRQZKLFKLVDVSHFLILFW\SHRI+00V

$QRWKHUZRUNWKDWWULHVWREXLOG'%1VIURP+00VLVSUHVHQWHGLQ>@,WLQWURGXFHVPL[HGVWDWH'%1VIRUSXUSRVHRIWLPH
VHULHVFODVVLILFDWLRQ%XLOGLQJEORFNVRIVXFK'%1VWUXFWXUHDUH+00VDQG/LQHDU'\QDPLF6\VWHPV /'6 7KLVZRUNZLOO
EHGHVFULEHGLQVHFWLRQ

0L[WXUHRI3KDVHW\SH'LVWULEXWLRQVDQGVWDWLF%1V

6WHUULWWHWDOSURSRVHGLQ>@DFRPELQDWLRQRI%D\HVLDQ%HOLHI1HWZRUNV%%1V ZKLFKDUHWKHVDPHDV%1V DQG6XUYLYDO


$QDO\VLVWRFUHDWH'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ%HOLHI1HWZRUNV '%%1 LH'%1V7KH\EDVHGWKHLUDQDO\VLVRQ0DUNRYPRGHOVWKDW
DUHRIWHQEHHQXVHGWRUHSUHVHQWVWRFKDVWLFSURFHVVHVDQGRQVWUXFWXUHGSKDVHW\SH 3K GLVWULEXWLRQVDVRQHW\SHRIKLGGHQ
0DUNRY PRGHOV 7KHVH 3K GLVWULEXWLRQV SURYLGH DQ LQWXLWLYH DQG UREXVW ZD\ RI GHVFULELQJ GLIIHUHQW VWDWLF SUREDELOLVWLF
SURFHVVHV 0RGHOV EDVHG RQ WKLV WKHRU\ DUH HYHQW GULYHQ ,W PHDQV WKDW ZKHQ DQ HYHQW RFFXUV V\VWHP FKDQJHV LWV VWDWH
7KHUHIRUHWKHSURFHVVLVSUHVHQWHGDVDVHTXHQFHRIODWHQWSKDVHVDVWKHVWDWHVRIDKLGGHQ0DUNRYPRGHO

6WHUULWW HW DO LQ KLV DSSURDFK FRPELQH WKLV LGHD ZLWK WKH DGYDQWDJHV RI %1V %%1V  LQ LQFRUSRUDWLQJ SULRU NQRZOHGJH DQG
FDXVDWLRQLQWRPRGHOWKDWKDVDSKDVHW\SHVWUXFWXUHVKRZQLQ)LJXUH7KH&DXVDOQHWZRUNLQWKHLUZRUNLVPRGHOOHGDV%1

&DXVDO
QHWZRUN
3URFHVVPRGHO

3KDVH 3KDVH 3KDVH

(YHQW

)LJXUH'%%1FRQVLVWLQJRILQWHUUHODWHGFDXVDOQRGHVZKLFKSHUIRUPWHPSRUDOLQIHUHQFHRQWKHHIIHFWQRGHVWKDW
FRQVWLWXWHVDSURFHVV

)URPWKLVQHWZRUNZHFDQLQIHUHQFHWKHSUREDELOLW\RISDUWLFXODUSKDVHLQDQHYHQW7KH3URFHVVPRGHOFDQEHGHILQHGZLWKDQ
HYHQW (! ZKLFK LQLWLDWHV D SURFHVV 3! DW W  DQG 3W! LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH SURFHVV 3 LV DFWLYH DW DUELWUDU\ WLPH W 7HUP
SURE3W! UHSUHVHQWV WKH SUREDELOLW\ WKDW WKH SURFHVV LV VWLOO DFWLYH DW WLPH W DIWHU LQLWLDO HYHQW 7KLV WHUP LV NQRZQ DV WKH
VXUYLYRU IXQFWLRQ DQG LV GHQRWHG E\ ) W  ,I ZH DUH ZRUNLQJ ZLWK FRQWLQXRXV V\VWHPV WKH GHULYDWH RI ) W  ODEHOOHG I W 
UHSUHVHQWVWKHSUREDELOLW\GHQVLW\IXQFWLRQ SGI RIWKHWLPHIRUZKLFKWKHSURFHVVLVDFWLYH$FFRUGLQJWRDXWKRUI W FDQEH
GHILQHGE\

I W dW = SURE SURFHVVWHUPLQDWH VLQ WW + W _ SURFHVVLVVWLOODFWLYHDWW   

 
9DULDEOHVLQWKLVPRGHOFDQEHTXDOLWDWLYH WKHFDXVDOYDULDEOHV DQGTXDQWLWDWLYH WKHVXUYLYDOYDULDEOHV 

:H FDQ VHH WKDW LQ WKLV ZRUN 6WHUULWW HO DO WULHV WR LQWURGXFH WKH LGHD RI &RQGLWLRQDO 3KDVHW\SH &3K  GLVWULEXWLRQ 7KHLU
FRQFOXVLRQVZHUHWKDWWKLVPRGHOLVPRUHDSSURSULDWHIRUGDWDSURFHVVLQJLQWKHLQWHOOLJHQWIDXOWPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPZKLFKLV
WKHDSSOLFDWLRQGRPDLQIRUWKLVQHWZRUN

0L[HG6WDWH'%1V

,Q >@ DQ LQWHJUDWLRQ RI +00V DQG /LQHDU '\QDPLF 6\VWHPV /'6  LV SUHVHQWHG ,W LV EDVHG RQ HVWLPDWLRQ LQ /'6V DQG
+00VLQIHUHQFH7KHVHLQIHUHQFHWHFKQLTXHVFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGDVDVSHFLDOFDVHRI%D\HVLDQLQIHUHQFHLQG\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ
QHWZRUNV 1HYHUWKHOHVV WKHVH PRGHOV DUH GLIIHUHQW LQ QDWXUH 7KH\ ERWK XVH FRUSXV RI H[DFW DQG DSSUR[LPDWH VWDWLVWLFDO
LQIHUHQFH DQG OHDUQLQJ WHFKQLTXHV LQYHQWHG IRU WLPHVHULHV PRGHOOLQJ +00V DUH XVHG IRU UHSUHVHQWLQJ GLVFUHWH VWDWHV DQG
/'6VDUHXVHGIRUFRQWLQXRXVVWDWHV:HFDQVD\WKDWPL[HGVWDWH'%1VDUHIRUPHGRI+00FRXSOHGZLWK/'67KH\DUH
PRGHOOHGLQVXFKZD\WKDWRXWSXWVRID+00IRUPWKHGULYLQJLQSXWWRDOLQHDUV\VWHP VHH)LJXUH 

VW [W

 XW  \ W

+00 /'6

)LJXUH%ORFNGLDJUDPRIDSK\VLFDOV\VWHP /'6 GULYHQE\DQLQSXWJHQHUDWHGIURP+00V HTXLYDOHQWWRPL[HGVWDWH


'%1V 

,QVSLUDWLRQ IRU VXFK D XQLTXH FRPELQDWLRQ RI PRGHOV FDQ EH IRXQG LQ GLIIHUHQW DSSOLFDWLRQV VXFK DV PDQRHXYULQJ WDUJHWV
URERW FRQWURO HWF $ JRRG H[DPSOH RI D V\VWHP ZKLFK LV DGHTXDWH IRU WKLV NLQG RI PRGHOOLQJ LV KXPDQ KDQGDUP PRWLRQ
GXULQJJHVWXUHGFRPPXQLFDWLRQOLNHGHVFULEHGLQ>@'LIIHUHQWG\QDPLFPRGHOVRIVLPSOHDUWLFXODWHGVWUXFWXUHVFDQEHXVHG
WR GHVFULEH DUP PRWLRQ DQG SUREDELOLVWLF FRQFHSWV WKDW LQIOXHQFH WKH DUP PRWLRQ FDQ EH PRGHOOHG DV D +00 7KLV ZLOO
HQDEOHQRWRQO\WRLQIHUDFWLRQVEXWDOVRWRSUHGLFWWKHP

V V V7 -

X X X7 -

[ [ [7 -

\ \ \7 -

)LJXUH8QUROOHG%1UHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHPL[HGVWDWH'%1

,I ZH FRQVLGHU EDVLF VFKHPD JLYHQ LQ )LJXUH  ZH FRXOG H[WHQG %D\HVLDQ QHWZRUN WKDW UHSUHVHQWV GHSHQGHQFLHV DPRQJ
SDUDPHWHUV WR WKH PL[HGVWDWH '%1 7KLV LV GHSLFWHG LQ )LJXUH  ZKLFK UHSUHVHQWV XQUROOHG '%1 IRU 7 FRQVHFXWLYH WLPH
VOLFHV7KHQZHFRXOGXVHNQRZQSDUDPHWHUVWRFRPSXWHMRLQWGLVWULEXWLRQ

 
7 - 7 - 7 - 7 -
3 <  ; 8  6 = 3U V  º 3U V W _ VW - º 3U X W _ V W 3U [  _ X  º 3U [W _ [ W -  X W º 3U \ W _ [ W    
W = W = W = W =

ZKHUH<;8DQG6GHQRWHWKHVHTXHQFHVRIREVHUYDWLRQVDQGKLGGHQVWDWHYDULDEOHV

3DUDPHWHUV RI PL[HGVWDWH '%1 FDQ EH OHDUQHG XVLQJ DGDSWHG 0/ OHDUQLQJ DOJRULWKP IRU JHQHUDO %1V 6LQFH WKLV W\SH RI
QHWZRUNKDVIRFXVHGRQO\RQWLPHVHULHVPRGHOVWKDWIXVHVW\SLFDOPRGHOVRIGULYLQJDFWLRQVDQGFRQWLQXRXVVWDWHPRGHOVZH
ZLOOQRWH[SODLQHGWKHPLQGHWDLOV0RUHIDFWVDQGH[SODQDWLRQRI/'6PL[HGVWDWH'%1VFDQEHIRXQGLQ>@

3XUH3UREDELOLVWLF'%1V

,Q WKLV VHFWLRQ ZH ZLOO GHVFULEH VHYHUDO W\SHV RI '%1V EDVHG VROHO\ RQ SUREDELOLVWLF IUDPHZRUN 7KLV PHDQV WKDW ZH KDYH
RQO\VWDWHVDVREMHFWVDQGDUFVUHSUHVHQWLQJFRQGLWLRQDOGHSHQGHQFHDPRQJVWDWHVIURPVDPHWLPHVOLFHDVZHOODVRQHVWKDW
UHSUHVHQW WHPSRUDO GHSHQGHQFLHV DPRQJ VWDWHV IURP WZR FRQVHFXWLYH WLPH VOLFHV 7KH ODWHU WHPSRUDO DUFV KDYH WKH VDPH
QDWXUHDVWKHDUFVLQVWDWLF%1H[FHSWWKH\UHSUHVHQWSUREDELOLWLHVWKDWH[LVWEHWZHHQVWDWHVLQGLIIHUHQWWLPHLQVWDQFHV

([WHQVLRQVRI%1V7RZDUG'%1V

,QWKLVW\SHRIQHWZRUNVZHFDQH[WHQGVWDWLF%1VIRUUHSUHVHQWLQJWHPSRUDOSURFHVVHVLQDVHYHUDOZD\V7KHVHH[WHQVLRQVWR
%1VFDQEHFODVVLILHGLQWRILYHFDWHJRULHV VLPLODUFODVVLILFDWLRQFDQEHIRXQGLQ>@ 

 $GGLWLRQ RI KLVWRU\ QRGH VHH )LJXUH   OLQNHG WR WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ QRGH LQ WKH %D\HVLDQ QHWZRUN WR H[SOLFLWO\
HQFRGHDWHPSRUDODVSHFWLQWRWKH%D\HVLDQQHWZRUN
 5XQ WLPHVHOHFWLRQRI%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNV7KLVH[WHQVLRQLQFOXGHVH[LVWHQFHRISUHGHYHORSHGOLEUDU\FRQVLVWLQJRI
IXOO\ VWUXFWXUHG '%1V WKDW FDQ EH XVHG DW DSSURSULDWH WLPH JLYHQ WKH SDUWLFXODU VWDWH RI WKH V\VWHP HQWLWLHV
UHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHG\QDPLFV\VWHPDWWKHVDPHWLPH 
 '\QDPLF VWUXFWXUH FKDQJHV LQ WKH %D\HVLDQ QHWZRUN WR VLPXODWH UHDVRQLQJ VWUDWHJLHV WKDW DUH REVHUYHG LQ KXPDQ

; W -

; W

< W
= 
W
: W

)LJXUH,QFRUSRUDWLQJSDVWLQIRUPDWLRQLQWR%1XVLQJDKLVWRU\QRGH

UHDVRQLQJ7KHVHFKDQJHVDUHEDVHGRQDEHOLHIRIWKHVSHFLILHGQRGHRUQRGHVLQWKH'%1VWUXFWXUH:KHQEHOLHIVLQ
RQH QRGH RU VHYHUDO RI WKHP VXUSDVV VSHFLILHG WKUHVKROG YDOXH VRPH VWUXFWXUDO FKDQJHV DUH EHLQJ WULJJHUHG VHH
)LJXUH 
 8QLIRUPUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIGXSOLFDWHG%1VIRUHYHU\WLPHVOLFHZLWKLQWURGXFWLRQRI%1VIRUHYHQWVUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
7KHQRGHVWKDWEHORQJWRWKHVHHYHQW¶V%1VUHFHLYHHYLGHQFHIURPQRGHVRISUHYLRXVDQGFXUUHQWWLPHVOLFH
 8QLIRUP UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI GXSOLFDWHG %1V IRU HYHU\ WLPH VOLFH ZLWKDGGLWLRQRIWHPSRUDODUFVEHWZHHQQRGHVWKDW
GHSHQG RQ VRPH RWKHU QRGHV IURP SUHYLRXV WLPH VOLFHV 6LQFH WKHVH FRQQHFWLRQV FDQ OHDG WR FRPSOH[ VWUXFWXUH LQ
PRVWFDVHVRQO\WKHFRQQHFWLRQVIURPSUHYLRXVWRFXUUHQWWLPHVOLFHDUHDOORZHG

 
5RDG

&DU

&DU

1RLVH 9LVLRQ

1RLVH 9LVLRQ

)LJXUH$'%1IRUFDUDQGURDGGHWHFWLRQIURPYLVLRQDQGQRLVHVHQVRUV7KHURDGGHWHFWLRQQRGHLVDGGHGWRWKH
RULJLQDOFDUGHWHFWLRQ%1ZKHQWKHSUREDELOLW\RIWKHSUHVHQFHRIDFDUJHWVPRUHWKDQDWKUHVKROGYDOXH  

6LQFHQHWZRUNVWKDWEHORQJWRILUVWFDWHJRU\FDQEHFRQVLGHUHGDVVLPSOHVWDWLF%1VZLWKRQHH[WUDQRGHZHZLOOQRWH[SODLQ
WKHPIXUWKHUKHUH

5XQWLPH VHOHFWLRQ RI %1V LV D PHWKRG WKDW LV XVHG LQ VRPH HDUOLHU ZRUN RQ '%1V :H FDQ ILQG PRUH DERXW WKLV W\SH RI
QHWZRUNV LQ >@ ZKHUH 6LQJKDO HW DO XVHG D ORFDOO\ GHYHORSHG %D\HVLDQ QHWZRUN SDFNDJH &2%5$ WR ZRUN ZLWK %D\HV
QHWZRUNV DQG WR LQFRUSRUDWH WHPSRUDOLW\ LQ WKHLU VWUXFWXUH 7KH V\VWHP VHOHFWV D VXEVHW RI WKHVH %D\HV QHWZRUNV
FRUUHVSRQGLQJWRLWVFXUUHQWEHOLHIVDERXWWKHLGHQWLWLHVRIREMHFWVLQWKHZRUOG7KHV\VWHPLVJHQHUDOO\VWDWLFZKLFKPHDQV
WKDWLWKDVDNQRZQVHWRI'%1VDQGWKDWLWFDQQRWOHDUQQHZ'%1VVWUXFWXUHV7KLVV\VWHPFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGDVG\QDPLF
V\VWHPLQWKHZD\WKDWLWFDQFKDQJHLWVRZQVWUXFWXUHDQGHPSOR\DQHZ'%1IRUQH[WWLPHLQVWDQFH

7KHVH%D\HVQHWVSUHVHQWHGLQWKHOLEUDU\ZHUHFUHDWHGE\WKHKXPDQVXSHUYLVRU([SHUWNQRZOHGJHRIWKHVHVXSHUYLVRUVLV
DOVR XVHG WR LQFRUSRUDWH FDXVDOLW\ UHODWLRQVKLSV DQG &37 YDOXHV LQ WKH VHOHFWHG V\VWHP HQYLURQPHQW LQ WKLV FDVH URERW¶V
RSHUDWLQJHQYLURQPHQW :HFDQGUDZDFRQFOXVLRQWKDWWKHEHQHILWRI'%1VVWUXFWXUHGOLNHWKLVLVWKDWWKH\FDQFKDQJHWKHLU
VWUXFWXUH ZLWKRXW KXPDQ LQWHUDFWLRQ GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH FXUUHQW EHOLHIV +RZHYHU WKH\ KDYH D VLJQLILFDQW GUDZEDFN PRVWO\
GXHWR  WKHLUUREXVWV\VWHPZKLFKZRXOGQDWXUDOO\OHDGWRWKHXVDJHRIVLPSOHUQHWZRUNVDQG  WKDWWKH\FDQQRWDGMXVW
LWVHOIWRQRYHOUHDOZRUOGVLWXDWLRQV

,QWKHVHTXHOZHZLOOGHVFULEHRWKHUWKUHHH[WHQVLRQVDVVHSDUDWHVHFWLRQV

&RPSRVLWLRQDO0RGHOOLQJZLWK'%1V

'\QDPLFVWUXFWXUHFKDQJHVLQWKH%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNFDQEHRIWZRW\SHV

 &KDQJHVRI&37YDOXHVRYHUWLPHDQG
 ,QWURGXFLQJDQGUHPRYLQJDUFVDQGRUQRGHVIURP'%1VVWUXFWXUHRYHUWLPH

+RZHYHU FKDQJHV WKDW LQFOXGH LQWURGXFLQJ DQG UHPRYLQJ SDUWV RI WKH QHWZRUN DUH YHU\ FRPSOH[ DQG FDQQRW EH HDVLO\
JHQHUDOL]HG7KH\FDQEHGHVFULEHGWKURXJKIRXUVXESUREOHPV  LQWURGXFLQJDUFVLQWRQHWZRUN  UHPRYLQJDUFVIURPWKH
QHWZRUN  LQWURGXFLQJQHZQRGHDQG  UHPRYLQJQRGHIURPWKHQHWZRUN$OOWKRVHVXESUREOHPVDUHKDUGWRKDQGOHDQG
VLQFH QRZ ZH KDYH RQO\ IHZ GHYHORSHG WHFKQLTXHV WKDW GHDO ZLWK VXFK SUREOHPV +HUH ZH ZLOO IXUWKHU LQYHVWLJDWH RQO\
VWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHVGHQRWHGLQ&37YDOXHVDQGSUHVHUYHDERYHPHQWLRQHGSUREOHPVIRUVHFWLRQ

=ZHLJ DQG 5XVVHOO LQ >@ SUHVHQWHG D PRGHO WKDW XVHV GHFRPSRVLWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV WR UHSUHVHQW UHDO ZRUOG VLWXDWLRQV 7KHVH
GHFRPSRVHG VLWXDWLRQV FDQ EH GLYLGHG LQWR VHYHUDO WHPSRUDO VHTXHQFHV 6XFK GHFRPSRVLWLRQ FDQ EH XVHG LQ VSHHFK
UHFRJQLWLRQ RU UHFRJQLWLRQ RI ZRUGV LQ KXPDQ KDQGZULWLQJ 7KH EDVLF LGHD WKDW JRYHUQHG WKH UHVHDUFKHUV RI VWRFKDVWLF
WHPSRUDOPRGHOVLQWKLVZRUNZDVWKDWLWLVPRUHFRQYHQLHQWWRFUHDWHWKHVXEPRGHOVIRUHDFKVWDJHWKDQWRFUHDWHRQHJHQHUDO
PRGHO 7KH HQWLUH SURFHVV LV WKHQ PRGHOOHG DV D FRPSRVLWLRQ RI WKHVH VWDJH VXEPRGHOV %\ IDFWRULQJ D FRPSOH[ JHQHUDO
WHPSRUDOPRGHOLQWRDFRPELQDWLRQRIVLPSOHUPRGHOVWKDWUHSUHVHQWRQHVWDJHLQWKHSURFHVVFRPSRVLWLRQDOORZVXVWRPDNH
UHGXFWLRQLQWKHQXPEHURIPRGHOV(DFKRIWKHVHVXEPRGHOVQHHGVWREHOHDUQHGIURPREVHUYDWLRQVLQVSHFLILFWLPHLQVWDQFHV

0RGHOFRPSRVLWLRQLQFOXGHVWZRLPSRUWDQWEXWGLVVLPLODULVVXHV)LUVWRIWKHPLVVSHFLILFDWLRQRIOHJDOVXEPRGHOVHTXHQFHV
LH WR GLYLGH FRPSOH[ PRGHO LQWR VHYHUDO VLPSOHU RQHV )RU WKLV SXUSRVH DXWKRUV XVHG 6WRFKDVWLF )LQLWH6WDWH $XWRPDWD
6)6$ DOJRULWKPH[SODLQHGLQ>@,WVDLPLVWRGHVFULEHDSUREDELOLVWLFGLVWULEXWLRQRYHUSRVVLEOHVXEPRGHOVHTXHQFHV7KH

 
VHFRQGLVVXHLVVXEPRGHOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ'%1VDOVRFDOOHG'\QDPLF3UREDELOLVWLF1HWZRUNV '31V LQWKHLUZRUNDUHXVHG
IRUWKLVSXUSRVH

7KH XVH RI '%1V \LHOGV VRPH DGYDQWDJHV IRU VXEPRGHOV RYHU +00V WKDW ZHUH XVHG HDUOLHU +RZHYHU FRPSRVLQJ '%1
VWUXFWXUHLVPXFKPRUHFRPSOLFDWHGWKDQFRPSRVLQJ+00V&RPSRVLWH'%1KDVWKHIROORZLQJDGYDQWDJHVRYHU+00VDV
VWDWHGLQ>@

œ 6WDWLVWLFDO HIILFLHQF\ '%1V DUH IDFWRUHG UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV RI D SUREDELOLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQ WKDW UHGXFHV SDUDPHWHUV
H[SRQHQWLDOO\ XQOLNH WKH QXPEHU RI SDUDPHWHUV LQ UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV WKDW DUH QRW IDFWRUHG VXFK DV VWDQGDUG +00V
+HQFHWKHVHSDUDPHWHUVFDQEHHVWLPDWHGPRUHDFFXUDWHO\ZLWKDIL[HGDPRXQWRIGDWD
œ 7KHUH DUH HIILFLHQW JHQHUDOSXUSRVH DOJRULWKPV IRU GRLQJ LQIHUHQFH DQG OHDUQLQJ LQ '%1V 7KH\ DUH XSJUDGHG
YHUVLRQVDQGRXWEXLOGLQJVRIDOJRULWKPVWKDWZHGHVFULEHGLQVHFWLRQ
œ 'LIIHUHQW VXEPRGHOV FDQ VKDUH WKHLU YDULDEOHV WKDW ZRXOG OHDG XV WR D QDWXUDO ZD\ RI GHVFULELQJ WUDQVLWLRQDO
EHKDYLRXU

6WDWHHYROXWLRQ
PRGHO
6WDWHVHTXHQFH

2EVUYDWLRQ
JHQHUDWLRQPRGHO 2EVHUYDWLRQVHTXHQFH

)LJXUH6LPSOHXQUROOHG'31WRUHSUHVHQWPXOWLSOHWLPHVWHSV

0RGHOVXVHGLQ=ZHLJDQG5XVVHOO¶VZRUNDUHWLPHLQYDULDQW7KHWRSRORJ\RIWKHQHWZRUNUHPDLQVWKHVDPHGXULQJGLIIHUHQW
WLPH LQVWDQFHV VR WKH\ FDQ EH FRQVLGHUHGDV'%1V7KHUHIRUH&37VWKDWUHSUHVHQWH[LVWLQJFRQQHFWLRQVEHWZHHQWHPSRUDO
DQGDWHPSRUDOQRGHVLQWKHQHWZRUNUHPDLQWKHVDPH$FFRUGLQJWRWKLV'%1VFDQEHVSHFLILHGGHVFULELQJ%1VWUXFWXUHIRU
WZR FRQVHFXWLYH WLPH VOLFHV JLYLQJ QRGHV HGJHV DQG &37V  DQG WKH OLQNV EHWZHHQ WKHP :KHQ DSSOLHG WR D UHDO ZRUOG
SUREOHPZHKDYHDPXFKPRUHWKDQWZRWLPHVOLFHV7KHUHIRUHDQREVHUYDWLRQVHTXHQFHLVVSUHDGWKURXJKDOOWLPHVOLFHVDQG
WKH '%1 KDV WR EH XQUROOHG WR SURGXFH D SUREDELOLVWLF QHWZRUN RI WKH DSSURSULDWH VL]H WR WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW DOO WKHVH
REVHUYDWLRQV

)DFWRUHGVWDWH
UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ

2EVHUYDWLRQVHTXHQFH

)LJXUH$'31ZLWKDIDFWRUHGVWDWHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ
 
)LJXUH  LOOXVWUDWHV D JHQHULF '%1 XQUROOHG WR VKRZ PXOWLSOH WLPH VWHSV 7KH YDULDEOHV DUH GLYLGHG LQWR VWDWH YDULDEOHV
ZKRVHYDOXHLVXQNQRZQDQGREVHUYDEOHYDULDEOHVZKRVHYDOXHLVNQRZQ7KHVWDWHYDULDEOHVDUHUHODWHGWRWKHREVHUYDWLRQ
YDULDEOHVE\WKH&37VRIWKHREVHUYDWLRQQRGHV)LJXUHVKRZVDPRUHUHDOLVWLF'%1LQZKLFKWKHKLGGHQVWDWHKDVEHHQ
IDFWRUHG 7KLV PHDQV WKDW GHSHQGHQFLHV DPRQJ QRQREVHUYDEOH QRGHV FDQ KDYH GLIIHUHQW YDOXHV IRU GLIIHUHQW WLPH VOLFHV
7KHVH&37YDOXHVDUHFKDQJHGLQFRUUHVSRQGHQFHZLWKRQHWULJJHULQJQRGH

:KHQ GRLQJ LQIHUHQFH RU OHDUQLQJ LQ H[DPSOHV VXFK DV VSHHFK UHFRJQLWLRQ ZH PXVW SHUIRUP VHJPHQWDWLRQ RI REVHUYDWLRQ
VHTXHQFHVUHJDUGLQJWRWKHPRGHOXVHGDWSDUWLFXODUWLPHLQVWDQFH:HQHHGWRNQRZDOOSDUWLWLRQVRIDQREVHUYDWLRQVHTXHQFH
EHWZHHQ WZR FRQVHFXWLYH PRGHOV 6LQFH WKH QXPEHU RI SDUWLWLRQV FDQ JURZ H[SRQHQWLDOO\ ZLWK WKH QXPEHU RI VXEPRGHOV
SUHVHQWHGWKLVLVDFRPSXWDWLRQDOGHPDQGLQJWDVNWKDWPXVWEHVROYHGLQDQHIILFLHQWDQGHOHJDQWZD\

,Q WKH 6)6$ DOJRULWKP WKH NH\ SUREOHP LV WKDW &37V PXVW EH XQLIRUP DFURVV WLPH 7KHUHIRUH ZH FDQ LQWURGXFH DQ H[WUD
³LQGH[´YDULDEOHLQHDFKWLPHVOLFHWKDWDIIHFWVWKHVWDWHHYROXWLRQ&37V,WLVXVHGIRUVZLWFKLQJEHWZHHQGLIIHUHQWSDUDPHWHUV
&37V  WKDW DUH XVHG IRU GHVFULELQJ D QHWZRUN IRU GLIIHUHQW VSRNHQ SKRQHPHV )LJXUH   7KLV EULQJV D XQLIRUP QHWZRUN
VWUXFWXUHWKDWFDQJHQHUDWHWKHDSSURSULDWHVZLWFKLQJEHKDYLRXUVEHWZHHQPRGHOVIRULQIHUHQFH)RUIXUWKHULQIRUPDWLRQUHIHU
WR>@

7HUPLQDOREVHUYDWLRQ

&RQWUROOD\HUVXEPRGHO
LQGH[YDULDEOH

6XEPRGHOVWDWHOD\HU

2EVHUYDWLRQOD\HU

)LJXUH$'%1VWUXFWXUHIRUPRGHOFRPSRVLWLRQ7KHVXEPRGHOLQGH[YDULDEOHVSHFLILHVZKLFKVXEPRGHOWRXVHDW
HDFKWLPHSRLQW

'%1IRU5HSUHVHQWLQJ(YHQWV

,QWKLVVHFWLRQZHZLOOGHVFULEHKRZZHFDQXVHLQIRUPDWLRQREWDLQHGIURPGLIIHUHQWVRXUFHVLQRUGHUWRLQIHUHYHQWVWKDWDUH
WDNLQJ SODFH EHWZHHQ WZR FRQVHFXWLYH WLPH SRLQWV :H FDQ XVH WKHVH VWDWHV IURP WZR FRQVHFXWLYH WLPH VOLFHV LQ '%1 IRU
GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH DFWLRQ WKDW LV KDSSHQLQJ LQ EHWZHHQ 7KH VWUXFWXUH RI VXFK QHWZRUN LV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH  7KUHH W\SHV RI
QRGHV FDQ EH GLVWLQJXLVKHG   ZRUOG QRGHV :  ZKLFK GHVFULEH WKH FHQWUDO GRPDLQYDULDEOHV  HYHQWQRGHV ( ZKLFK
UHSUHVHQW D FKDQJH LQ WKH VWDWH RI D ZRUOG QRGH DQG   REVHUYDWLRQ QRGHV 2  ZKLFK UHSUHVHQW GLUHFW REVHUYDWLRQV RI WKH
ZRUOG QRGHV RU WKH REVHUYDEOH HIIHFWV RI DQ HYHQW 7LPH LQWHUYDOV EHWZHHQ GLIIHUHQW WLPH VOLFHV DUH QRW XQLTXH DQG WKH\
GHSHQG RQ RFFXUUHQFH RI GLVFUHWH HYHQWV (DFK WLPH VOLFH ZLWKLQ WKH QHWZRUN UHSUHVHQWV WKH VWDWLF HQYLURQPHQW GXULQJ WKDW
WLPHLQWHUYDO7KLVLVSRVVLEOHEHFDXVHWKHFKDQJHVLQVWDWHDUHQRWIUHTXHQW7KHUHIRUHZHFDQVD\WKDWWKHVWUXFWXUHZLWKLQ
WLPHVOLFHLVRIWHQUHJXODU

7KLV LGHD LV XVHG LQ >@ ,Q WKLV ZRUN 1LFKROVRQ SURSRVHG D JHQHULF G\QDPLF EHOLHI QHWZRUN IRU PRQLWRULQJ DSSOLFDWLRQ
$XWKRU H[HUWV WKDW WKHVH W\SHV RI QHWZRUNV DUH XVXDOO\ KLJKO\ FRQQHFWHG SDUWLFXODUO\ EHWZHHQ DGMDFHQW WLPH VOLFHV +H
VXSSRVHGWKDWWKH&3'VRIQRGHVZLWKSDUHQWVLQWKHSUHYLRXVWLPHVOLFHFRXOGFKDQJHLQWLPH7KLVPHDQVWKDWWKH&3'VDUH
XVXDOO\ WKH IXQFWLRQ RI WKH WLPH LQWHUYDO ,QIRUPDWLRQ IURP GLIIHUHQW VHQVRUV LV XVHG IRU REWDLQLQJ HYLGHQFH DQG QRGHV WKDW
UHSUHVHQW WKLV REVHUYHG YDULDEOHV DUH GDUNVKDGHG LQ WKH )LJXUH  :KHQ VHQVRUV GHWHFW FKDQJHLQVWDWHEHOLHIXSGDWLQJLV
SHUIRUPHGUHFDOFXODWLQJWKHEHOLHIVRIFXUUHQWWLPHVOLFH W DQGSURYLGLQJSUHGLFWLRQIRUWKHYDOXHVRIWKHZRUOGQRGHVDWWLPH
VOLFHW

$VZHFDQVHHIURP)LJXUHWZRW\SHVRIREVHUYDWLRQVZHUHSUHVHQWHGLQJHQHULF'%1V7KHVHW\SHRIREVHUYDWLRQQRGHV
DUHGHQRWHGDV  2 7 IRUWKHGLUHFWREVHUYDWLRQRIDZRUOGYDULDEOHDQG   2 7  7 + IRUWKHREVHUYDWLRQRIDQHYHQW
L L

 
: W  : W  : W 

:RUOGQRGHV

(YHQWQRGHV ( WW  ( WW 

(YHQWREVHUYDWLRQV

2 WW  2 WW 
6WDWHREVHUYDWLRQV

2 W  2 W  2 W 

)LJXUH$*HQHULFVWUXFWXUHIRUDG\QDPLFEHOLHIQHWZRUN

7KLVWHFKQLTXHZDVLQWURGXFHGIRUIDOOPRQLWRULQJZDONLQJDQGIDOOGLDJQRVLV*LYHQHYLGHQFHIURPVHQVRUREVHUYDWLRQVWKH
PRGHO RXWSXWV EHOLHIV DERXW WKH FXUUHQW ZDONLQJ VWDWXV DQG PDNHV SUHGLFWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ IXWXUH IDOOV 7KLV V\VWHP \LHOGV D
JRRGSHUIRUPDQFHIRUVSDUVHO\UHFHLYHGREVHUYDWLRQVLQWLPHDQGFDQEHXVHGIRUIRUHFDVWLQJLQVXFKVLWXDWLRQV

'%1VZLWKXQLIRUPVWUXFWXUH

7KLV JURXS FRQWDLQV QHWZRUNV WKDW KDYH LGHQWLFDO VWUXFWXUH IRU HYHU\ WLPH VOLFH DQG LGHQWLFDO WHPSRUDO FRQGLWLRQDO
GHSHQGHQFLHV DUFV  EHWZHHQ WLPH VOLFHV 7KLV PHDQV WKDW FRQGLWLRQDO GHSHQGHQFLHV DQG VWDWHV LQ RQH WLPH VOLFH DUH
UHSUHVHQWHGDVDVWDWLF%1'%1LVEXLOWRYHUWKHVH%1VE\PXOWLSO\LQJWKHPIRUHDFKWLPHVOLFHDQGE\DGGLQJDUFVEHWZHHQ
VWDWHVIURPWZRFRQVHFXWLYHWLPHVOLFHV QRGHVLQ%1 LIWKH\DUHWHPSRUDOO\FRUUHODWHG7KLVLVGHSLFWHGLQ)LJXUH

7HPSRUDO
GHSHQGHQFLHV

6WDWLF%1 7LPHVOLFHW 7LPHVOLFHW

)LJXUH([WHQGLQJ%1VWRZDUG'%1V

 
,QVXFKVWUXFWXUHZHKDYHWRNQRZRQO\SUREDELOLWLHVRIURRWDQGOLIHQRGHVDQG&37VWKDWH[SUHVVWKHYDOXHRIGHSHQGHQFH
EHWZHHQ WKHVH QRGHV DQG KLGGHQ RQHV DQG &37V EHWZHHQ KLGGHQ QRGHV WKHPVHOYHV 7KHVH &37V FDQ EH REWDLQHG IURP
H[SHUWVRUOHDUQHGIURPQXPHURXVH[DPSOHVZKLFKZLOOEHH[SODLQHGLQQH[WVHFWLRQ

6SHDNHU

9LVLEOH )URQWDO $XGLR &RQWH[WXDOLQI

6NLQGHWHFWRU 7H[WXUHGHWHFWRU )DFHGHWHFWRU 0RXWKPRWLRQ 6LOHQFHGHWHFWRU

)LJXUH,QWHJUDWHGDXGLRYLVXDOQHWZRUN

)RULOOXVWUDWLRQZHZLOOSUHVHQWWZR'%1VWKDWEHORQJWRWKLVFDWHJRU\JLYHQE\3DYORYLFHWDO>@)LUVWWKH\IRUP
WKH VWDWLF QHWZRUN FRPELQLQJ VXEQHWZRUNV WKDW JDWKHU HYLGHQFH IURP GLIIHUHQW VHQVRUV 7KHVH VXEQHWZRUNV ZHUH XVHG WR
REWDLQYLVXDOLQIRUPDWLRQ YLVXDOVXEQHWZRUN DXGLRGDWD DXGLRVXEQHWZRUN DQGWRIXVHWKHPZLWKFRQWH[WXDOLQIRUPDWLRQ
7KLVJOREDOQHWZRUNVWUXFWXUHLVGHSLFWHGLQ)LJXUH

$XWKRUV¶ DWWHPSW WR LQFOXGH WHPSRUDO GLPHQVLRQ LQWR QHWZRUN ZDVEDVHGRQH[SHUWNQRZOHGJHDERXWWKHPRGHOHGSUREOHP


$IWHU LQWURGXFLQJ WKHVH WHPSRUDO GHSHQGHQFLHV VWDWLF %1 LV WUDQVIRUPHG LQWR '%1 DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH  +HUH VKDGHG
QRGHVUHSUHVHQWREVHUYDWLRQQRGHV VHQVRURXWSXWV 

,IZHZDQWWRLQIHULIDXVHULVVSHDNLQJRUQRWXVLQJVWDWLF%1ZHQHHGWRILQGWKHSRVWHULRUSUREDELOLW\IRUWKH6SHDNHUQRGH
LHWKHSRVWHULRUSUREDELOLW\ 3U 6 _ 6.  7;  )' 00  &7 

6SHDNHU 6SHDNHU

)URQWDO )URQWDO

$XGLR $XGLR

6SHDN 6SHDN

9LVLEO )URQW $XGLR &RQWH 9LVLEO )URQW $XGLR &RQWH

6NLQ 7H[WX )DFH 0RXW 6LOHQF 6NLQ 7H[WX )DFH 0RXW 6LOHQF

W W
)LJXUH$WZRWLPHVOLFHVIRUG\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNIRUVSHDNHUGHWHFWLRQ

 
:H FDQ GR WKLV HDVLO\ E\ PDUJLQDOL]LQJ WKH MRLQW SUREDELOLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQ RYHU VSHDNHU QRGH RU ZH FDQ XVH QXPHURXV %1
LQIHUHQFHWHFKQLTXHV+RZHYHULQIHUHQFHLQG\QDPLFQHWZRUNSUHVHQWHGLQWKHLUZRUNLVDLPHGWRILQGWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH
VSHDNHUYDULDEOH 6 DWHDFKWLPHLQVWDQFHFRQGLWLRQHGRQDVHTXHQFHRIVHQVRUREVHUYDWLRQV

0 7 = ^6.  7;   )'  00   &7  6.7  7; 7  )'7  00 7  &77 `   

,I ZH ZDQW WR ILQG ZKHWKHU WKH VSHDNHU LV SUHVHQW RU QRW DW WLPH W ZH PXVW FRPSDUH YDOXHV REWDLQHG IRU QH[W WZR WHUPV
3U 6W = WUXH _ 0 7 DQG 3U 6W = IDOVH _ 0 7 7KHVHSRVWHULRUSUREDELOLWLHVFDQEHREWDLQHGGLUHFWO\IURPWKHIRUZDUG
EDFNZDUG LQIHUHQFH DOJRULWKP ,I ZH ZDQW WR SUHGLFW WKH OLNHOLKRRG RI WKH VSHDNHU IURP DOO WKH SUHYLRXV REVHUYDWLRQV LW LV
VKRZQWREHUHDFKDEOH

'LIIHUHQWXQLIRUP'%1PRGHOV

3DYORYLFHWDODOVRH[SORUHGDYDULDQWRI'%1VFDOOHG'XUDWLRQ'HQVLW\'%1 '''%1 PRGHOLQ>@ZKHUHVWDWHGXUDWLRQV


ZHUHH[SOLFLWO\PRGHOOHG7KLVPRGHO\LHOGVEHWWHUUHVXOWEXWDFFRUGLQJWRDXWKRUVWKHFRPSOH[LW\RILQIHUHQFHLQ'''%1V
LQFUHDVHVH[SRQHQWLDOO\LIZHKDYHWRLQIHUHQFHIRUORQJVHTXHQFHRIWLPHVOLFHV$OVROHDUQLQJSURFHGXUHFDQEHLQWUDFWDEOH
LQ ORQJHU HYHQWV 7KHVH SUREOHPV ZLOO SUHYHQW XV IRU XVLQJ WKLV W\SH RI '%1V LI ZHDUHGHDOLQJZLWKODUJHQXPEHURIWLPH
VOLFHV 'XH WR WKHLU FRPSOH[LW\ '''%1V FDQ EH RQO\ HPSOR\HG IRU WKH VLPSOHU PRGHOV WKDW KDYH RQO\ IHZ WLPH VOLFHV
LQFOXGHGLQWKHLQIHUHQFH

$QRWKHU'%1DUFKLWHFWXUHZDVSUHVHQWHGUHFHQWO\LQ>@,WLVNQRZQDVDQ,QSXW2XWSXW'%1 )LJXUH &XUUHQWVWDWHRI


PRGHOOHG GRPDLQ FRQWH[WXDO LQIRUPDWLRQ  IRUPV DQ LQSXW WR WKH QHWZRUN ZKLOH WKH REVHUYDWLRQV RI WKH VHQVRUV IRUPV DQ
RXWSXW WR WKH QHWZRUN 7RJHWKHU WKH\ DUH XVHG WR LQIHU WKH VWDWH RI WKH VSHDNHU ,QSXW2XWSXW '%1 VWUXFWXUH ZDV IRUPHG
H[WHQGLQJ WKH LQSXWRXWSXW +00V 7KH GLIIHUHQFH LV WKDW LQ ,QSXW2XWSXW '%1 WKH SUREDELOLVWLF GHSHQGHQFLHV EHWZHHQ WKH
YDULDEOHV KDYH GLIIHUHQW RULJLQ ZKLFK LV GHSLFWHG LQ )LJXUH  ,Q WKLV PRGHO WKH VSHDNHU QRGH UHSUHVHQWV WKH TXHU\ QRGH
ZKRVH SRVWHULRU SUREDELOLW\ ZH ZDQW WR GHWHUPLQH IRU HYHU\ WLPH VOLFH $QRWKHU GLIIHUHQFH WKDW GLVFULPLQDWH WKLV W\SH RI
QHWZRUN IURP WKH RWKHUV LV WKDW LQ ,QSXW2XWSXW '%1 FRQWLQXRXV VHQVRU\ RXWSXWV DUH PRGHOOHG DV FRQGLWLRQDO *DXVVLDQ
GLVWULEXWLRQV7KDWSHUPLWVVRIWVHQVRU\GHFLVLRQVZKLFK\LHOGVEHWWHUUHVXOWVWKDQGLVFUHWHVHQVRU\RXWSXWV

7KHVH'%1PRGHOVDUHXVHGIRUKXPDQFRPSXWHULQWHUDFWLRQ7KH\DUHWHVWHGRQDXGLRYLVXDOVSHDNHUGHWHFWLRQ7KLVSURMHFW
LV OHDG E\ 3DYORYLF HW DO >@ DQG XS XQWLO QRZ WKH\ SUHVHQWHG VHYHUDO GLIIHUHQW '%1 VWUXFWXUHV DQG OHDUQLQJ
DSSURDFKHVZKLFKZHUHWHVWHGDQGHYDOXDWHGWKURXJKQXPHURXVH[DPSOHV

&RQWH[WXDOLQIRUP &RQWH[WXDO
LQSXW

6SHDNHU
6WDWHRI
WKHXVHU

9LVLEOH )URQWDO
$XGLR

6HQVRU\
6NLQGHWHFWRU 7H[WXUH )DFHGHWHFWRU 0RXWKPRWLRQ 6LOHQFH
GHWHFWRU GHWHFWRU REVHUYDWLRQV

9LGHRQHWZRUN $XGLRQHWZRUN

)LJXUH,QWHJUDWHGDXGLRYLVXDOQHWZRUN ,QSXW2XWSXWVWUXFWXUH 

7KH\XVH'%1VIRUKXPDQFRPSXWHULQWHUDFWLRQEHFDXVHLWLVXQFHUWDLQVWRFKDVWLFDQGEHFDXVH'%1VKDYHZHOOFRQVWUDLQHG
QHWZRUNVWUXFWXUHWKDWSHUPLWVVLPSOLILHGLQIHUHQFH$QRWKHULPSRUWDQWLVVXHWKDWFRQWULEXWHWRWKLVHPSOR\PHQWLVWKDW'%1V
 
FRPSXWDWLRQDOSRZHUOLHVLQWKHIDFWWKDWWKH&37VDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHQHWZRUNDUHLQPRVWFDVHVDVVXPHGQRWWRYDU\RYHU
WLPH7KHUHIRUHZHFRXOGGHILQHQHWZRUNVWUXFWXUHWKDWLVYHU\VLPSOHDQGFRPSDFWWKDWZRXOGHDVHLQIHUHQFHRUOHDUQLQJ

+RZHYHUWKHVHQHWZRUNVFRPHZLWKVRPHODFNVDQGLQFHUWLWXGH7KHSUREOHPVWKDWDULVHZKHQZHWUDQVIRUPVWDWLF%1VLQ
VXFKXQLIRUP'%1VDUHGHVFULEHGLQWKHQH[WVHFWLRQ

:KHUHWKH'%13UREOHPV&DPHIURP"
+HUH ZH ZLOO GHVFULEH SUREOHPV WKDW IUHTXHQWO\ DULVH LQ '%1V 6LQFH LQ PRVW FDVHV ZH DUH GHDOLQJ ZLWK H[DFW SUREOHPV
ZKLFKFDQEHHDVLO\UHSUHVHQWHGE\JUDSKZHZLOOQRWFRQVLGHUXQNQRZQVWUXFWXUHSUREOHPV7KLVOHDYHVXVZLWKWZRPDMRU
SUREOHPVRQHGHDOLQJZLWKLQIHUHQFHLQ'%1VDQGWKHRWKHULVDERXWSDUDPHWHUOHDUQLQJLQ'%1V

,QIHUHQFHLQ'%1VLVSUREOHPDWLFEHFDXVHZHKDYHWRXQUROOWKHQHWZRUNWRUHSUHVHQWGHSHQGHQFLHVEHWZHHQQRGHVIURPWZR
FRQVHFXWLYH WLPH VOLFHV ,Q VXFK XQUROOHG QHWZRUN ZH PXVW SUHVHUYH FRQGLWLRQDO UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ QRGHV DV ZHOO DV
LQIOXHQFHWKDWHYLGHQFHQRGHVKDYHRQKLGGHQQRGHV7KHUHIRUHZHZLOOFRQFHQWUDWHRQXQUROOLQJQHWZRUNSUREOHPV

3DUDPHWHUOHDUQLQJLQ'%1VFDQEHGLIILFXOW0DLQUHDVRQLVWKDWXVXDOO\ZHFDQQRWKDYHH[DFWLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWFRUUHFWQHVV
RI SUREDELOLWLHV IRU VRPH VXEVHW RI KLGGHQ QRGHV ([SHUW NQRZOHGJH FDQ RIIHU XV RQO\ DSSUR[LPDWH &37V IRU VRPH QRGH
GHSHQGHQFLHV)RUPRUHH[DFWUHSUHVHQWDWLRQZHPXVWHPSOR\HIILFLHQWOHDUQLQJDOJRULWKPV%DVLFDOJRULWKPVIRUOHDUQLQJDUH
GHVFULEHGLQVHFWLRQDQGKHUHZHZLOOJLYHRQO\VRPHH[WHQVLRQVDQGGHVFULEHQRYHODSSURDFKHV

8QUROOLQJ1HWZRUN3UREOHPV

$VZHGHVFULEHGLQWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQV'%1VDOORZFRQQHFWLRQVEHWZHHQQRGHVIURPWZRFRQVHFXWLYHWLPHVOLFHV7KHVH
FRQQHFWLRQV UHSUHVHQW WLPH GHSHQGHQFLHV DQG WKHVH GHSHQGHQFLHV DORQJ ZLWK WKHLU &37V UHSUHVHQW VWDWH HYROXWLRQ PRGHO
6FKDIHUDQG:H\UDWK>@PDGHJHQHUDOFODVVLILFDWLRQRQGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIQRGHVWKDWH[LVWLQ'%1V7KH\GLVWLQJXLVKWKUHH
W\SHVRIQRGHV  G\QDPLFQRGHVWKDWUHSUHVHQWREMHFWVWKDWHYROYHRYHUWLPH  VWDWLFQRGHVWKDWUHSUHVHQWREMHFWVWKDWGR
QRWFKDQJHRYHUWLPHDQG  WHPSRUDU\QRGHVWKDWUHFHLYHGLIIHUHQWYDOXHVRYHUWLPH

:KHQUHSUHVHQWLQJUHDOZRUOGVLWXDWLRQVLWLVRIWHQWKHFDVHWKDWZHQHHGDVWUXFWXUHRIWKHQHWZRUNWKDWUHPDLQVWKHVDPHLQ
HDFK WLPH VOLFH 7KDW ZDV WKH PDLQ FRQVWUDLQW IRU LQFRUSRUDWLQJ SRZHUIXO LQIHUHQFH WHFKQLTXHV WKDW DUH LQYHQWHG IRU WKLV
SXUSRVH 1HWZRUNV WKDW DUH GHYHORSHG EDVHG RQ WKLV FRQVWUDLQW HQDEOH HDV\ VHSDUDWLRQ RI '%1V DQG HIILFLHQW WRSRORJLFDO
VSHFXODWLRQ 7KLV VHSDUDWLRQ RI '%1V LV WHUPHG DV XQUROOLQJ RU UROOLQJ XS SURFHGXUH 7KLV SURFHGXUH OLHV LQ WKH EDVH RI
LQIHUHQFHDOJRULWKP

$IWHU SHUIRUPLQJ WKH UROOXS SURFHGXUH WKH %1 UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH WLPH VOLFH DW WLPH W FDQ EH UHPRYHG DIWHU FDOFXODWLQJ LWV
LQIOXHQFHRQWKH%1UHSUHVHQWLQJWLPHVOLFHW7KLVSUXQLQJSURFHGXUHXVXDOO\PDNHVG\QDPLFQRGHVDWWLPHVOLFHWEHFRPH
URRWQRGHV7KHUHIRUHWKH\QHHGWRUHFHLYHSURSHUSULRUSUREDELOLWLHV7KHVHSULRUVDUHQDWXUDOO\GHILQHGWKURXJKRXWWKHEHOLHI
RIG\QDPLFQRGHVDWWEHIRUHUHPRYLQJWKHSDUWRIWKHQHWZRUN7KLVFRXOGEHJHQHUDOL]HGE\IRUPLQJDZLQGRZRIVHYHUDO
WLPHVOLFHVDVSURSRVHGE\.MDHUXOII>@+HDOVRLQWURGXFHGEDFNZDUGVPRRWKLQJVOLFHVGHOD\LQJWKHUROOXSSURFHGXUHDQG
IRUHFDVWVOLFHVIRUSUHGLFWLQJWKHIXWXUHEHOLHIV

/HW XV UHVXPH WKH SURFHVV RI LQIHUHQFH ,QIHUHQFH VWDUWV E\ LQFRUSRUDWLQJ NQRZOHGJH IURP SUHYLRXV WLPH VOLFH LQWR FXUUHQW
WLPHVOLFH7KLVVWHSLVRIWHQWHUPHGDVUROOLQJXSRUXQUROOLQJDVZHVDZHDUOLHU%\UROOLQJXSWKHQHWZRUNXVLQJ0DUNRY
SURSHUW\HYLGHQFHDFFXPXODWHGRYHUWLPHLVDOZD\VLQWHJUDWHGLQWRWKHFXUUHQWSUREDELOLVWLFQHWZRUNPRGHO7KLVUROOLQJXS
PHWKRG LV EDVHG RQ QRGH HOLPLQDWLRQ GHVFULEHG LQ >@ +RZHYHU WKLV QRGH HOLPLQDWLRQ PD\ LQWURGXFH DGGLWLRQDO OLQNV
EHWZHHQ QRGHV DQG IXUWKHU FRPSOLFDWH WKH QHWZRUN VWUXFWXUH $FFRUGLQJ WR >@ WKLV SURFHGXUH FKDQJHV QHWZRUN VWUXFWXUH
RYHUWLPHZKLFK\LHOGVPDQ\SUREOHPVLQFDOFXODWLQJEHOLHIVLQWKHQHWZRUN7KHVHSUREOHPVFDQEHGLYLGHGLQWRWKUHHPDMRU
FDWHJRULHV   GLIIHUHQWQRGHHOLPLQDWLRQVHTXHQFHVFDQUHVXOWLQGUDVWLFDOO\GLIIHUHQWFRQQHFWLYLW\LQWKHUHVXOWLQJQHWZRUN
 PRGLILFDWLRQRIWKHQHWZRUNVWUXFWXUHPD\IRUFHVRPHLQIHUHQFHDOJRULWKPV OLNHRQHVEDVHGRQMXQFWLRQWUHHV WRSHUIRUP
H[SHQVLYH FRPSXWDWLRQV WR PRGLI\ RU FRPSOHWHO\ UHFUHDWH LQWHUQDO GDWD VWUXFWXUHV DQG   PRGLILFDWLRQ UHTXLUHV PRUH
FRPSOH[DQGFRPSXWDWLRQLQWHQVLYHFRGHWRPDQLSXODWHWKHQHWZRUN

7RDGGUHVVWKHVHLVVXHVIRXUPHWKRGVZHUHGHYHORSHGIRUHIILFLHQWUROOXS
 &RQQHFWLQJSULRUDQGWUDQVLWLRQQHWZRUN
 7HPSRUDU\LQYDULDQWQHWZRUNV
 6WRFKDVWLFVLPXODWLRQDQG
 ([DFWUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIQRGHGHSHQGHQFLHV

 
,Q >@ ZH FDQ ILQG RQH ZD\ RI UHSUHVHQWLQJ '%1V WKURXJKRXW WKH %1V IRU WKH ILUVW WLPH VOLFH SULRU QHWZRUN  DQG
GHSHQGHQFLHVEHWZHHQWZRFRQVHFXWLYHWLPHVOLFHVLHWZR%1V WUDQVLWLRQQHWZRUN 7KH\DUHIXVHGWREXLOGXQUROOHG'%1

7HPSRUDU\ LQYDULDQW QHWZRUNV DQG VWRFKDVWLF VLPXODWLRQ ZLOO EH EULHIO\ GLVFXVVHG DV WKH\ KDYH EHHQ GHVFULEHG LQ RULJLQDO
ZRUN >@ 7KHVH PHWKRGV KDYH LQWHQWLRQ WR VKRZ KRZ FDQ ZH VLPXODWH KXPDQ UHDVRQLQJ ZKHQ GULYLQJ D YHKLFOH $XWKRUV
FRQVWUXFWVWDWHHYROXWLRQPRGHOWKURXJKDUFVDQGWKHLU&37VE\FRQQHFWLQJWKHQRGHVIURPWKH%1RIWKHWLPHWWRWKH%1DW
WLPHWDQGVHQVRUPRGHOHPSOR\LQJWKH&37VIRUWKHDUFVSURFHHGLQJLQWRQRGHZKRVHYDOXHVFDQEHREVHUYHGDWHDFKWLPH
VOLFH,Q'%1VWUXFWXUHOHDUQLQJDSSURDFKWKH\FRQVLGHUHGWKDWVHQVRURXWSXWVDUHXVXDOO\FRQGLWLRQDOO\LQGHSHQGHQWRIHDFK
RWKHUJLYHQWKHYDULDEOHVWKDWWKH\PHDVXUH7KHUHIRUHWKH\DVVXPHWKDW%D\HVLDQLQIHUHQFHZLWKLQDQHWZRUNZLOOHIILFLHQWO\
IXVHWRJHWKHUREVHUYDWLRQVIURPVHYHUDOVHQVRUVREWDLQLQJDWRQFHXSGDWHGSRVWHULRUSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIRUWKHSDUWRIWKH
QHWZRUNWKDWJDWKHUVHYLGHQFHIURPWKHVHQVRUV)RUSHUIRUPLQJQRGHHOLPLQDWLRQLQLQIHUHQFHSURFHGXUHEDVHGRQWKLVVHQVRU
RXWSXWV WKH\ FRQVLGHUHG WZR GLIIHUHQW WHFKQLTXHV 2QH ZDV WR EXLOG WHPSRUDU\ LQYDULDQW QHWZRUN ZKLFK JDWKHUV HYLGHQFH
IURPSUHYLRXVWLPHVOLFHLQWRRQHQRGHDQGWKHRWKHUZDVEDVHGRQVWRFKDVWLFVLPXODWLRQRILQIHUHQFHSURFHGXUH

)LQDOO\ZHFDQGHFLGHWRFRQVLGHUVHSDUDWHO\QRGHGHSHQGHQFHVLQWKHQHWZRUN7KLVZRXOGOHDGXVWRH[DFWUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRI
QRGHGHSHQGHQFLHV$VZHVDZQRGHVLQ'%1VFDQEHG\QDPLFVWDWLFDQGWHPSRUDU\)RUDOOWHPSRUDOGHSHQGHQFHVRIWKHVH
QRGHVZHFDQGHYHORSGLIIHUHQWXQUROOHGUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ7KHVHYDULRXVGHSHQGHQFLHVDUHGHVFULEHGLQVHFWLRQ

'%1V%XLOWIURP3ULRU1HWZRUNDQG7UDQVLWLRQ1HWZRUN

$FFRUGLQJWR)ULHGPDQHWDO>@IRUDG\QDPLF%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNWKHIROORZLQJQHHGVWREHGHILQHG  DSULRUQHWZRUNDQG
 DWUDQVLWLRQQHWZRUN)LJXUH D LQGLFDWHVDQH[DPSOHSULRUQHWZRUN,WLQFRUSRUDWHVWKHSULRUSUREDELOLWLHVIRUDOOWKH

D  E 
;  >@ ;  >@ ;  >@ 

;  >@ ;  >@ ;  >@ 

;  >@ ;  >@ ;  >@ 

)LJXUH$SULRUDQGDWUDQVLWLRQQHWZRUNGHILQLQJD'%1IRUVWDWHV ;   ;  DQG ;  

YDULDEOHVLQWKHQHWZRUNDQGWKHFRQGLWLRQDOSUREDELOLWLHVDWW LHWKHLQLWLDOWLPHVOLFH)LJXUH E LOOXVWUDWHVDWUDQVLWLRQ


QHWZRUNIRUWKHVDPH'%17KHWUDQVLWLRQQHWZRUNUHSUHVHQWVFRQGLWLRQDOGHSHQGHQFLHVEHWZHHQFRQVHFXWLYHWLPHVOLFHVIRU
DOOWLPHVOLFHVW «7DVZHOODVZKDWWKHSUREDELOLWLHVDUHIRUHDFKVWDWHLQWLPHVOLFHFRQGLWLRQHGRQRWKHUVWDWHVRI
SUHYLRXVDQGFXUUHQWWLPHVOLFH

;  >@ ;  >@  ; >@

;  >@ ;  >@  ;  >@

;  >@ ;  >@  ;  >@

)LJXUH8QUROOHGQHWZRUNFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHSUHYLRXVDSULRUDQGWUDQVLWLRQDOQHWZRUNV

 
*LYHQWKHSULRUDQGWUDQVLWLRQQHWZRUNVZHFDQFRQVWUXFWD'%1RIDQ\QXPEHURIVWDWHVDQGDQ\GXUDWLRQDVIROORZV:LWKLQ
WLPHVOLFHW WKHFRQQHFWLRQVDPRQJWKHVWDWHVDQGWKHORFDOSUREDELOLW\IXQFWLRQVUHPDLQVWKHVDPHDVLQWKHSULRUQHWZRUN
6R ZH MXVW FRS\ WKH SULRU QHWZRUN $IWHU WKDW IRU HYHU\ WLPH VOLFH W 7 FRQQHFWLRQVIURPVWDWHVDWWLPHVOLFHVWWR
WLPHVOLFHWFRQQHFWLRQVZLWKLQWLPHVOLFHWDQGWKHORFDOSUREDELOLW\IXQFWLRQV SGIV ZLWKLQWLPHVOLFHWKDYHWREHVSHFLILHG
LQWKHSULRUDQGWKHWUDQVLWLRQQHWZRUN

7KLVQHWZRUNFRQILJXUDWLRQLVEDVHGRQDVVXPSWLRQWKDWWKLVLVDILUVWRUGHU0DUNRYQHWZRUN7KLVSURFHGXUHRIFRQVWUXFWLQJ
'%1PRGHOLVWHUPHGDVQHWZRUNXQUROOLQJ1RYHOQHWZRUNVWUXFWXUHLVLOOXVWUDWHGLQWKH)LJXUH

7HPSRUDOO\LQYDULDQWQHWZRUNV

7HPSRUDOO\LQYDULDQWQHWZRUNFDQEHGHILQHGDVD'31ZKHUHWKHQHWZRUNVWUXFWXUHUHPDLQVWKHVDPHDIWHUUROOXSSURFHGXUH
7KLVLVRQO\WKHFDVHZKHUHRQO\RQHWHPSRUDOQRGHUHFHLYHVDOOWKHQHFHVVDU\LQIRUPDWLRQIURPWKHSUHYLRXVWLPHVOLFH WRS
QRGHLQWKH)LJXUH 7KHUHIRUHUROOXSDIIHFWVRQO\WKLVQRGHDQGWKHUHLVQRQHHGIRULQYHQWLQJQHZHGJHVLQWKHQHWZRUN
EHWZHHQQRGHVLQWKHVDPHWLPHVOLFH VWDWLF%1 

; ; ; ; ;

< < < < <

= = = = =

)LJXUH$WHPSRUDOO\LQYDULDQWQHWZRUNZKRVHVWUXFWXUHLVSUHVHUYHGDIWHUUROOXS

)LJXUH  VKRZV D WHPSRUDOO\ YDULDQW QHWZRUN ,Q WKLV FDVH QRW RQO\ RQH QRGH IURP FXUUHQW WLPH VOLFH UHFHLYHV GDWD IURP
QRGHV FRPLQJ IURP SUHYLRXV WLPH VOLFH ,Q WKH )LJXUH  WZR QRGHV UHFHLYHV WKLV LQIRUPDWLRQ 7KLVLQGXFHVWKDWWKHVHWZR
QRGHVQRZEHFRPHGHSHQGDQWRQHDFKRWKHU7RSUHVHUYHWKLVQRYHOGHSHQGHQFHUHODWLRQZHPXVWDGGDQHGJHIURPWRSQRGH
WRWKHERWWRPQRGHSHUVLVWLQJWKHGHSHQGHQFHWKDWH[LVWVEHWZHHQWKHPLQWKHSUHYLRXVWLPHVOLFH

; ; ; ; ;

< < < < <

= = = = =

)LJXUH$WHPSRUDOO\YDULDQWQHWZRUNZKRVHVWUXFWXUHLVDOWHUHGDIWHUUROOXS

2EYLRXVO\WHPSRUDOO\LQYDULDQWQHWZRUNVDUHPRUHDSSURSULDWHDQGHDVLHUWRPDLQWDLQWKDQWHPSRUDU\YDULDQWRQHVHVSHFLDOO\
IRUUHDOWLPHDSSOLFDWLRQVVXFKDVGULYLQJDYHKLFOH,QRIIOLQHSURFHVVLQJWKH\ZRXOG\LHOGWROHVVDFFXUDWHUHVXOWVDQGFDQ
EULQJPDQ\ODFNVDQGSUREOHPV

 
1HYHUWKHOHVVLQ)LJXUHWKHHGJHOHDGLQJIURPWRSWRERWWRPQRGHFRXOGEHDGGHGLQHYHU\WLPHVOLFHLQWKHUROOXSDQGZH
ZRXOGFUHDWHWHPSRUDOO\LQYDULDQWQHWZRUN,QRXUH[DPSOHWKLVZRXOGPDNHRXUJUDSKFRPSOHWHO\FRQQHFWHGDQGLQJHQHUDO
ZLOOLQWURGXFHYHU\GHQVHO\SRSXODWHGJUDSK

,W LV HDV\ WR VKRZ WKDW D QHWZRUN ZLWK FRPSOHWHO\ FRQQHFWHG QRGHV LQ HDFK VOLFH LV DOZD\V WHPSRUDOO\ LQYDULDQW EXW VXFK
QHWZRUN LV YHU\ KDUG IRU GRLQJ LQIHUHQFH DQG OHDUQLQJ 7KXV WKH EHWWHU VROXWLRQ ZRXOG EH WR WUDQVIRUP WKLV QHWZRUN LQWR D
WHPSRUDOO\ YDULDQW QHWZRUN DQG ILQG WKH PRUH HIILFLHQW DOJRULWKPV IRU SHUIRUPLQJ DGHTXDWH VHTXHQFH RI QRGH HOLPLQDWLRQ
7KLVFRXOGPDNHHDVLHURXUFRPSXWDWLRQWDVNDQGZHFRXOGHPSOR\LWIRUUHDOWLPHDSSOLFDWLRQV

6WRFKDVWLFVLPXODWLRQLQ'%1V

6WRFKDVWLF VLPXODWLRQ FRXOG EH XVHG WR DYRLG WKH &37 PDQLSXODWLRQV LQYROYHG LQ H[DFW UROOXS OLNH RQH LQ WKH WHPSRUDOO\
LQYDULDQWQHWZRUNV)RUEHVHWDO>@GHVFULEHGVWRFKDVWLFVLPXODWLRQPHWKRGDVDQDWWHPSWWRDSSUR[LPDWHWKHFXUUHQWEHOLHI
VWDWHXVLQJDFROOHFWLRQRIVDPSOHVWKDWUHSUHVHQWUHDOZRUOGVFHQDULRUHSOLFDWHGWRWKHQHWZRUNVWUXFWXUHDQGEHOLHIV(DFKRI
WKHVH QHWZRUN¶V VWDWHV LV XVHG WR GHVFULEH RQH SRVVLEOH HYROXWLRQ RI WKH V\VWHP LQYROYHG LQ WKH FRQVLGHUDWLRQ 7KH &37V
UHPDLQWKHVDPHDVZHKDYHQRLQWHUHVWWRFKDQJHWKHPEHFDXVHWKHUHFHLYHGVDPSOHVDUHDFRPSOHWHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIRXU
HVWLPDWHRIWKHMRLQWGLVWULEXWLRQ7KHUHIRUHWKHVDPSOHSRSXODWLRQDQGDVVRFLDWHGZHLJKWLQJIDFWRUVDUHDOOZHQHHGWRIRUP
WKHHVWLPDWHRIDQ\PDUJLQDORUMRLQWSUREDELOLW\LQ'%1

7KHUHDUHVHYHUDOPHWKRGVIRUVWRFKDVWLFVLPXODWLRQ,QWKHDERYHPHQWLRQHGSDSHUDPHWKRGNQRZQDVOLNHOLKRRGZHLJKWLQJ
LVSUHVHQWHG,WFRQVLVWVRIQXPHURXVWULDOVZKHUHHDFKWULDOLVZHLJKWHGE\WKHSUREDELOLW\LWDVVLJQVWRWKHREVHUYHGHYLGHQFH
7DNLQJ WKH ZHLJKWHG DYHUDJH RI YDOXHV RQ SDUWLFXODU VWDWHV REWDLQHG E\ WKHVH WULDOV ZH FDQ UHFHLYH FRQFOXVLRQV DERXW
SUREDELOLWLHVRIWKHVHVWDWHV

7KH XVH RI OLNHOLKRRG ZHLJKWLQJ LQ '%1V UHYHDOV VRPH SUREOHPV ZKLFK DUH QRW HDV\ WR VROYH 7\SLFDO SUREOHP DULVH LQ
VLWXDWLRQVZKHUHQRGHVUHSUHVHQWLQJREVHUYHGHYLGHQFHKDYHVDPHSDUHQWQRGH7ZRWHFKQLTXHVH[LVWWKDWGHDOZLWKWKLVNLQG
RIVLWXDWLRQV2QHRIWKHPLVHYLGHQFHUHYHUVDO7KLVPHWKRGUHOLHVRQWKHDOJRULWKPVWKDWWU\WRFKDQJHWKHVWUXFWXUHRI'%1
LQDQDSSURSULDWHZD\DQGVHSDUDWHREVHUYHGFKLOGUHQIURPWKHLUSDUHQWV$QRWKHUPHWKRGGHVFULEHGLQ>@LVVXUYLYDORIWKH
ILWWHVWVDPSOLQJZKLFKLVDPHWKRGWKDWXVHVWKHOLNHOLKRRGZHLJKWVWRSUHIHUHQWLDOO\SURSDJDWHWKHPRVWOLNHO\VDPSOHV7KHVH
WZRPHWKRGVFDQDOVREHHQHPSOR\HGWRJHWKHUWREULQJRIIWKHEHVWUHVXOWV

5HSUHVHQWLQJ1RGH'HSHQGHQFLHVLQ'%1V

,QWKLVVHFWLRQZHZLOOGHVFULEHVHYHUDOW\SHVRIQRGHGHSHQGHQFLHVWKDWFDQEHIRXQGLQ'%1V+RZHYHUQRWDOOWHPSRUDO
GHSHQGHQFLHVEHWZHHQWHPSRUDU\VWDWLFDQGG\QDPLFQRGHVDUHDOORZHGLQ'%17KHUHIRUHZHFDQLGHQWLI\WKUHHW\SHVRI
GHSHQGHQFLHVWKDWH[LVWLQD'%1DVGHVFULEHGLQ>@  EHWZHHQG\QDPLFDQGWHPSRUDU\QRGHV  EHWZHHQG\QDPLFDQG
G\QDPLFQRGHVDQG  EHWZHHQVWDWLFDQGG\QDPLFQRGHV6RPHVROXWLRQVRILQFRUSRUDWLQJSULRUNQRZOHGJHLQWRQHZWLPH
VOLFHLQGLIIHUHQWFRQVHFXWLYHQHWZRUNVHJPHQWDUHGHVFULEHGEHORZ

'HSHQGHQFLHVEHWZHHQG\QDPLFDQGWHPSRUDU\QRGHV

7KHPRVWIUHTXHQWFDVHLQ'%1VLVZKHQWKHFKLOGQRGHRIDG\QDPLFQRGH '1 LVDWHPSRUDU\QRGH 71  DOVRFDOOHGDQ


HYLGHQFHQRGH 7KHGHSHQGHQFLHVFDQEHPRGHOOHGDVVKRZQRQWKHPRGHO$LQWKH)LJXUH7KLVW\SHRIGHSHQGHQFHLV
FRPPRQDQGGHVLUDEOHLQPRVWFDVHVDVLWKDVEHHQGHPRQVWUDWHWKDWSXUSRVHRIWKLVG\QDPLFQRGHLVWRJDWKHULQGHSHQGHQW
LQIOXHQFHVRIVHYHUDOFDXVHVRQDQHIIHFWQRGH +HFNHUPDQDQG-HQVHQ 

'1 '1 '1

71 71 71

W W W

)LJXUH0RGHO$UHSUHVHQWVGHSHQGHQF\EHWZHHQDG\QDPLFQRGH'1DQGDWHPSRUDU\QRGH71

 
'HSHQGHQFLHVEHWZHHQG\QDPLFQRGHV

7KLVLVDVLWXDWLRQZKHQG\QDPLFQRGH'1KDVDQRWKHUG\QDPLFQRGH'1DVDSDUHQWQRGH)LUVWWUHDWPHQWRIWKLVW\SHRI
FRQQHFWLRQLVVLPLODUWRWKHSUHYLRXVO\GHVFULEHGPRGHO$+HUHZHUHSUHVHQW'1QRWDVDG\QDPLFEXWDVWHPSRUDU\QRGH
71 PRGHO%LQ)LJXUH D ,QHDFKWLPHVOLFHZHPXVWFUHDWHQHZLQVWDQFHRI71E\DSUHGLFWLRQ$Q\LQIOXHQFHIURP
'1 LQ W WR '1 LQ W LV UHSUHVHQWHG WKURXJKRXW FRPPRQ SDUHQW QRGH 7KLV PRGHO OHDGV WR VOLJKW ORVV RI LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ
VRPHQRGHVWKURXJKWLPHZKHQZHSHUIRUPSURFHVVRILQIHUHQFHRQD'%1DOWKRXJKWKHEHOLHIRIVRPHQRGHVUHFHLYHVWKH
FRUUHFWYDOXHV

'1 '1 '1 '1 '1 '1

71 71 71 '1 '1 '1

W W W W W W
D  E 

)LJXUH D 0RGHO%UHSUHVHQWVGHSHQGHQF\EHWZHHQG\QDPLFQRGHV'1DQG'1ZKHUH'1LVVLPSOLILHGDVD
WHPSRUDU\QRGH71 E 0RGHO%UHSUHVHQWVGHSHQGHQF\EHWZHHQG\QDPLFQRGHV'1DQG'1

,QDQRWKHUPRGHO% )LJXUH E WKHUHLVQRVXFKORVVRILQIRUPDWLRQEHFDXVH'1LVPRGHOOHGOLNHLWVKRXOGEHDVD


G\QDPLFQRGH1RZQRGH'1FROOHFWVWKHHYLGHQFHIURPERWKQRGH'1LQWLPHVOLFHWDQGQRGH'1LQWLPHVOLFHWDV
ZHOODVWKHLQIOXHQFHRIQRGH'1IURPSUHYLRXVWLPHVOLFH,QWKLVFROOHFWLQJHYLGHQFHSURFHGXUHLWLVYHU\LPSRUWDQWQRWWR
FRXQWWKHHIIHFWVRIQRGH'1RQ'1WZRWLPHV7RRYHUFRPHWKLVSUREOHPZHLQWURGXFHGWKHHGJHEHWZHHQ'1LQWLPH
VOLFHWDQG'1LQWLPHVOLFHW1RZ'1UHFHLYHVWKHHYLGHQFHIURP'1LQWWKURXJKRXWDQHGJHWKDWFRQQHFWVWKHPLQ
WLPHVOLFHW$OWKRXJKWKLVLVPRUHDSSURSULDWHDQGSUHFLVHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQPRGHOSUHGLFWLRQVDQGLQIHUHQFHSURFHGXUHVDUH
PRUHFRVWO\LQ%WKDQLQ%

'HSHQGHQFLHVEHWZHHQG\QDPLFDQGVWDWLFQRGHV

$G\QDPLFQRGH'1FDQKDYHDVWDWLFSDUHQWQRGH61$FFRUGLQJWR>@WKLVGHSHQGHQFHFDQEHLQWHUSUHWHGLQFRUSRUDWLQJ
WKHHIIHFWVRIWKHVWDWLFQRGH61LQWKHG\QDPLFFKLOGQRGH'11RZWKHG\QDPLFQRGH'1ZLOOFRQYH\DOORIWKHLQIRUPDWLRQ

61
D  ':1 ':1 ':1

'1 '1 '1


61
W W W

F 
61 71 71 71

W W W
E 
'1 '1 '1

W W W
)LJXUH0RGHOVIRUUHSUHVHQWLQJGHSHQGHQF\EHWZHHQG\QDPLFQRGH'1DQGDVWDWLFQRGH61 D &PRGHO E &
PRGHOWKDWUHSUHVHQWV'1DVDWHPSRUDU\PRGHO71 F &PRGHO

 
QHHGHG IRU LQIHUHQFH 7KHUHIRUH ZH ZRXOG KDYH D VLPSOH QHWZRUN 7KLV LGHD LVUHSUHVHQWHGRQPRGHO&LQ)LJXUH D 
$XWKRUVFODLPHGWKDWWKHSUREOHPVLQWKLVPRGHOFDQEHGLIIHUHQWLDWHLQWZRFODVVHV  QRGH'1PXVWEHDEOHWRUHSUHVHQWWKH
HIIHFWFDXVHGE\61DQG  VWDWLFQRGH61LVLQLWLDOO\QRWNQRZQZLWKFHUWDLQW\DQGZHFDQRQO\HVWLPDWHWKLVQRGH¶VYDOXH
ZKLFKZRXOGEHFKDQJHGDVWLPHSURJUHVVIRUZDUG3UREOHP  FDQEHVROYHGLIZHGHFLGHWRWUDGHDFFXUDF\IRUHIILFLHQF\LQ
DZD\WKDWZHGHOD\UROOXSXQWLOZHUHFHLYHWKHH[DFWSUREDELOLW\RIVWDWH61

,QWKHPRGHO&'1ZLOOEHFRQVLGHUHGDVDWHPSRUDU\QRGHDQGZLOOEHFUHDWHGDWHDFKWLPHVOLFHZLWKFRUUHVSRQGLQJEHOLHI
)LJXUH  E  ':1 UHSUHVHQWV WKH SURSHUWLHV RI '1 ZLWKRXW WKH LQIOXHQFH RI 61 '1 DV D WHPSRUDU\ QRGH UHFHLYHV
LQIOXHQFHVRIERWK61DQG':1$XWKRUVSRLQWRXWWKDWLQWKLVPRGHOZHUDQLQWRWKHVDPHSUREOHPVDVLQWKHPRGHO%DQG
WKDWZHKDYHDORVVRILQIRUPDWLRQ7KHUHIRUHWKLVPRGHOFDQEHDFFHSWHGRQO\LIWKHORVVRILQIRUPDWLRQGRHVQRWFRQFHUQDQ
LPSRUWDQWQRGH

)LQDOPRGHO& )LJXUH F PRGHOV61DVVWDWLFQRGHDQG'1DVG\QDPLFRQH$QRWKHUSURSRVLWLRQLVJLYHQLQ>@,WVD\V


WKDWZHFRXOGHYHQPRGHO61DVDG\QDPLFQRGHDQGVLPSOLI\WKHPRGHO&ZKLFKZLOOHDVHWKHFRPSXWDWLRQVEXWOHDGVWR
OHVVSUHFLVHLQIHUHQFH

9DULRXV/HDUQLQJ7HFKQLTXHVIRU'%1V8VHGLQ$XGLR9LVXDO6SHDNHU'HWHFWLRQ

$VZHVWDWHGSDUDPHWHUOHDUQLQJLQ'%1VFDQEHGLIILFXOWDQGFXPEHUVRPH7KLVLVHVSHFLDOO\WKHFDVHZKHQZHKDYHPRUH
WKDQRQHKLGGHQQRGHZKLFKVWDWHZHFDQQRWWUDFN7KHUHIRUHDOJRULWKPVSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQFDQQRWEHDOZD\VHIILFLHQWLQ
VXFKVLWXDWLRQV7KLVPHDQVWKDWZHQHHGPRUHSRZHUIXOWRROVWRSHUIRUPOHDUQLQJLQ'%1V

7KLVVHFWLRQGHVFULEHVVRPHRIWKHVHWHFKQLTXHVHPSOR\HGIRUVSHFLILF'%1VDVZHOODVSUREOHPVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHP

/HDUQLQJ

:KHQZHXVH'%1VWRPRGHOUHDOZRUOGSUREOHPVZHUDUHO\NQRZDOOWKHSDUDPHWHUV1HYHUWKHOHVVLIZHDUHLQVLWXDWLRQWR
NQRZ DOO WKH SDUDPHWHUV ZH ZLOO EH DEOH WR XVH '%1V GLUHFWO\ WR SHUIRUP LQIHUHQFH +RZHYHU LI ZH GR QRW NQRZ DOO WKH
&3'V ZH FDQQRW IRUP FRPSOHWH '%1 ZLWK DOO SDUDPHWHUV 7KHUHIRUH ZH ZLOO KDYH WR FRQVXOW H[SHUW NQRZOHGJH DERXW
VSHFLILFGRPDLQRILQWHUHVW6LQFHZHDUHGHDOLQJZLWKSUREOHPVWKDWH[SHUWNQRZOHGJHFDQQRWVXSSRUWDGHTXDWHO\ZHPXVW
UHO\RQRXURZQNQRZOHGJHRISUREOHPGRPDLQRXUH[SHULPHQWVDQGREVHUYDWLRQVPDGHLQWKLVVSHFLILFGRPDLQ+RZHYHU
H[SHUWV¶NQRZOHGJHFDQJLYHXVJRRGVWDUWLQJSRLQW

7KHNH\IRUSURGXFLQJDSRZHUIXODQGHIIHFWLYH'%1PRGHOZRXOGEHFKRRVLQJDQGHPSOR\LQJDGHTXDWHOHDUQLQJDOJRULWKP
)RUWKLVSXUSRVH0D[LPXPOLNHOLKRRGOHDUQLQJDOJRULWKPLVXVHGLQPDQ\DSSURDFKHVVLPLODUWRWKLVRQH$VZHPHQWLRQHG
WKHJRDORI0/OHDUQLQJLVWRDGMXVWWKHSDUDPHWHUVWRDFKLHYHWKHEHVWILWWRDVHWRIWUDLQLQJGDWD6LQFHWKLVLVDQLWHUDWLYH
DOJRULWKPZHFDQQRWEHVXUHWKDWLWOHDGVXVWRWKHEHVWVROXWLRQRUWRWKHORFDOPLQLPXP$QRWKHUSUREOHPWKDWZDVSRLQWRXW
LQ >@ LV WKDW ZH FDQQRW SXW RXU FRQILGHQFH WKDW WKH PRGHO ZLOO EHKDYH ZHOO LQ QRYHO VLWXDWLRQV LH ZRXOG EH D JRRG
FODVVLILHU7KHUHIRUHZHPXVWEHFDXWLRXVZLWKHPSOR\PHQWRIWKLVOHDUQLQJSURFHGXUH

,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHVHSUREOHPVZHFRXOGKDYHKLGGHQVWDWHVLQ'%1V7KLVPHDQVWKDWZHKDYHVWDWHVWKDWFDQQRWEHREVHUYHG
LHWKHLUYDOXHVFDQQRWEHXQLTXHO\GHWHUPLQHGLQHYHU\WLPHVOLFH,IZHKDYHWKHVHKLGGHQVWDWHVLQWKHQHWZRUNZHFDQQRW
XVH 0/ DOJRULWKP )RU VXFK SUREOHPV ZH PXVW XVH ([SHFWDWLRQ PD[LPL]DWLRQ OHDUQLQJ DOJRULWKP ZKLFK LV EDVHG RQ 0/
OHDUQLQJDOJRULWKP7KLVDOJRULWKPLVEULHIO\GHVFULEHGLQWKHVHTXHO

,I ZH GHQRWH XQREVHUYHG YDULDEOHV ZLWK X  DQG REVHUYHG ZLWK


W
R  IRU WLPH VOLFH W ZH FDQ ZULWH SUREDELOLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQ
W

DPRQJDOOYDULDEOHVLQD'%1DVD

7
3U R  R7  X  X7 = 3U X 3U R _ X º 3U X W _ X W - 3U RW _ X W   
W =


,IZHGHQRWHPRGHOSDUDPHWHUVDV q ZHFDQGHILQHWKLV(0OHDUQLQJDOJRULWKPIRU'%1DVVKRZHGEHORZ+HUH q GHQRWH L

RSWLPLVHGPRGHOSDUDPHWHUV

 
 (0DOJRULWKP
JHWLQLWLDOJXHVVRI q  

GR
  LQIHUKLGGHQYDULDEOHV XÖ IURPPHDVXUHPHQWV R  R7 XVLQJPRGHO q N 
W

 q N + = DUJ PD[ 3U R  R7  XÖ  XÖ7 _ q 


 q
XQWLO FRQYHUJHQFH 


,QRUGHUWRVLPSOLI\WKHOHDUQLQJSURFHGXUH3DYORYLFHWDO>@GLYLGHGOHDUQLQJDOJRULWKPLQWRWZRVWDJHV,QWKHILUVWVWHS
WKH\ HPSOR\ OHDUQLQJ RI WKH REVHUYDWLRQ QHWZRUN &37V H[FOXGLQJ WKH WHPSRUDO GHSHQGHQFLHV DQG WKHQ XVHG WKLV IL[HG
REVHUYDWLRQ QHWZRUN WR OHDUQ WUDQVLWLRQ SUREDELOLWLHV &37V  7KLV OHDUQLQJ GLYLVLRQ LV REYLRXVO\ VXERSWLPDO EXW DV WKH\
VKRZHG LQ WKHLU H[SHULPHQWV LW \LHOGV JRRG SDUDPHWHU HVWLPDWLRQ :H FRXOG VD\ WKDW WKLV DFFXUDF\ IRU HIILFLHQF\ WUDGH RII
VDWLVI\OHDUQLQJFULWHULRQVIRUWKLVW\SHRIQHWZRUN

,QWKHLUSDSHUV3DYORYLFHWDODOVRUHIHUWRDQHZWHFKQLTXHWKDWLVXVHGIRUOHDUQLQJ,WLVFDOOHGERRVWLQJDQGLVLQWURGXFHGWR
LPSURYH DFFXUDF\ RI D ZHDN FODVVLILHU DV GHVFULEHG LQ >@ 7KH\ DGMXVWHG WKLV WHFKQLTXH WKURXJK HUURUIHHGEDFN DQG ZLWK
RSWLPDO FRPELQDWLRQ RI PXOWLSOH FODVVLILHUV &RPELQLQJ LW ZLWK 0/ OHDUQLQJ DOJRULWKP WKH\ XVHG LW IRU HVWLPDWLQJ PRGHO
SDUDPHWHUV

7KH\ WHUPHG WKLV OHDUQLQJ DOJRULWKP IRU '%1 WKDW XVHV ERRVWLQJ WR LPSURYH UHFRJQLWLRQ DFFXUDF\ DV (UURU )HHGEDFN '%1
()'%1  7KLV ERRVWLQJ DOJRULWKP $GDERRVW  ERRVWV WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQ RQ D VHW RI GDWD SRLQWV E\ OLQHDUO\ FRPELQLQJ D
QXPEHURIZHDNPRGHOVHDFKRIZKLFKLVWUDLQHGWRFRUUHFW³PLVWDNHV´RIWKHSUHYLRXVRQH()'%1IUDPHZRUNZDVEDVHG
RQ WKLV DOJRULWKP ,Q VKRUW ZH FDQ VD\ WKDW WKH JRDO RI ()'%1 LV WR FKDQJH WKH HVWLPDWH RI WKH YDOXHV RI WKH DUFV WKDW
FRQWULEXWH WRLQFRUUHFWLQIHUHQFHLQSUHYLRXVPRGHOV7RVKRZWKHSRZHURIWKLVWHFKQLTXHDXWKRUVSUHVHQWWKHLUUHVXOWVWKDW
ZHUHREWDLQHGIURPQXPHURXVH[SHULPHQWVWKDWWKH\FRQGXFWIRUHYDOXDWLQJWKLVDOJRULWKP

&RQFOXVLRQV

7KH TXHVWLRQ VWLOO UHPDLQV :KLFK RI SUHYLRXVO\ GHVFULEHG '%1 PRGHOV VKRXOG ZH VHOHFW WR UHSUHVHQW GLIIHUHQW FDXVDO
GHSHQGHQFLHV RYHU WLPH" 7KHUH LV QR XQLTXH DQVZHU :H FDQ RQO\ SRLQW RXW WKDW WKLV GHFLVLRQ VKRXOG EHPDGHFRQVLGHULQJ
GHSHQGHQFLHVDPRQJWKHYDULDEOHVRILQWHUHVWLQDSSOLHGGRPDLQ7KLVLVEHFDXVHZHFRXOGQRWWUDGHDFFXUDF\IRUHIILFLHQF\LQ
HYHU\QHWZRUNWKDWZHFUHDWHIRUDSDUWLFXODUGRPDLQ

(YHQZHGHFLGHZKLFKPRGHOWRXVHGRZHNQRZHYHU\WKLQJZHQHHG&DQZHDVVLJQSURSHUYDOXHVIRUHYHU\QRGHDQGHYHU\
HGJH LQ '%1 WKDW QHHG DVVLJQPHQW" ,V H[SHUW NQRZOHGJH VXIILFLHQW HQRXJK IRU PRGHO FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ" :KLFK DOJRULWKP
VKRXOGZHXVHIRULQIHUHQFHLQRUGHUQRWWRQHJOHFWLPSRUWDQWLQIRUPDWLRQDQGPDNHFRPSXWDWLRQVPRUHFRPSOH["

:H FDQ H[HUW WKDW '%1V ZLWK XQLIRUP VWUXFWXUH KDYH JRRG WKHRUHWLFDO EDVH DQG DQ\ UHDO ZRUOG SUREOHP FDQ EH HDVLO\
WUDQVIRUP LQWR WKLV QHWZRUNV 0RVW DXWKRUV DQG PRVW SDSHUV SXEOLVKHG GHVFULEH WKHVH QHWZRUNV DQG PDQ\ WRROV DVVRFLDWHG
ZLWKWKHP8QLIRUPLW\WKDWJRHVZLWKWKHPLVDQRWKHUSRZHUIXOUHDVRQWRHPSOR\WKHPIRUSXUSRVHRILQIHUHQFHLQPDQ\UHDO
ZRUOGXQFHUWDLQHYHQWV'XHWRWKLVXQLIRUPVWUXFWXUHDQGSDUDPHWHUUHSUHVHQWDWLRQZHFDQXVHWKHPIRUSUREOHPVWKDWGHDO
ZLWKKXJHQXPEHURIWLPHVOLFHV7KHUHIRUHWKH\DUHFRQVLGHUHGDVPDLQFDQGLGDWHVIRUXVDJHLQUHFRJQLWLRQRUPRGHOOLQJRI
XQFHUWDLQHYHQWV

*HQHUDOFRQFOXVLRQFDQEHWKDWGDWDDQGH[SHUWGULYHQ'%1VZLOOSURYLGHDYLDEOHDOWHUQDWLYHWRRIWHQHQFRXQWHUHGFRPSOH[
DQG DG KRF DOJRULWKPV ZKRVH GHVLJQ LV H[FOXVLYHO\ GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH NQRZOHGJH RI DQ H[SHUW XVHU DV VWDWHG LQ >@
7KHUHIRUHZHZLOOZDWFKIXOO\FKRRVHVWUXFWXUHVPHWKRGVDQGDOJRULWKPVWKDWZRXOG\LHOGEHVWSHUIRUPDQFHIRURXUGRPDLQ
RILQWHUHVW

5HIHUHQFHV

>@-'<RXQJ³2Q8QLI\LQJ7LPHDQG8QFHUWDLQW\7KHSUREDELOLVWLF7HPSRUDO1HWZRUN´06F7KHVLV)DFXOW\RIWKH
6FKRRORI(QJLQHHULQJRIWKH$LU)RUFH,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\$LU8QLYHUVLW\'HFHPEHU

>@-'<RXQJ(6DQWRV-U³,QWURGXFWLRQWR7HPSRUDO1HWZRUNV´7KH6HYHQWK0LGZHVW$,DQG&RJQLWLYH6FLHQFH
&RQIHUHQFH$SULO

 
>@$6LQJKDO&%URZQ³'\QDPLF%D\HV1HW$SSURDFKWR0XOWLPRGDO6HQVRU)XVLRQ´3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH63,(±7KH
,QWHUQDWLRQDO6RFLHW\IRU2SWLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ2FWREHU

>@)9-HQVHQ³$Q,QWURGXFWLRQWR%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV´8QLYHUVLW\&ROOHJH/RQGRQ3UHVV

>@7$6WHSKHQVRQ³$Q,QWURGXFWLRQWR%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUN7KHRU\DQG8VDJH´,',$35HVHDUFK5HSRUW)HEUXDU\


>@-3HDUO³3UREDELOLVWLF5HDVRQLQJLQ,QWHOOLJHQW6\VWHPV1HWZRUNVRI3ODXVLEOH,QIHUHQFH´0RUJDQ.DXIPDQQ
3XEOLVKHUV,QF6DQ0DWHR&DOLIRUQLD

>@.0XUSK\60LDQ³0RGHOOLQJ*HQH([SUHVVLRQ'DWDXVLQJ'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV´7HFKQLFDO5HSRUW
&RPSXWHU6FLHQFH'LYLVLRQ8QLYHUVLW\RI&DOLIRUQLD%HUNHOH\&$

>@56WHUULWW$+0DUVKDO&06KDSFRWW6,0F&OHDQ³([SORULQJ'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ%HOLHI1HWZRUNVIRU,QWHOOLJHQW
)DXOW0DQDJHPHQW6\VWHP´,(((,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ6\VWHPV0DQDQG&\EHUQHWLFV91DVKYLOOH7HQQHVVHH
86$SS

>@93DYORYLF³'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNVIRU,QIRUPDWLRQ)XVLRQZLWK$SSOLFDWLRQWR+XPDQ&RPSXWHU,QWHUIDFHV´
3K'7KHVLV8QLYHUVLW\RI,OOLQRLVDW8UEDQD&KDPSDLJQ

>@*)&RRSHU³7KH&RPSXWDWLRQDO&RPSOH[LW\RI3UREDELOLVWLF,QIHUHQFHXVLQJ%D\HVLDQEHOLHI1HWZRUNV´$UWLILFLDO
,QWHOOLJHQFHYROSS

>@3'DJXP$*DOSHU³)RUHFDVWLQJ6OHHS$SQHDZLWK'\QDPLF1HWZRUN0RGHO´3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHWK&RQIHUHQFHRI
WKH8QFHUWDLQW\LQ$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH-XO\

>@$-9LWHUEL³(UURU%RXQGVIRU&RQYROXWLRQDO&RGHVDQGDQ$V\PSWRWLFDOO\2SWLPDO'HFRGLQJDOJRULWKP´,(((
7UDQV,QIRUPDWLRQ7KHRU\YROSS

>@-&KHQJ'$%HOO:/LX³/HDUQLQJ%HOLHI1HWZRUNVIURP'DWD$Q,QIRUPDWLRQ7KHRU\%DVHG$SSURDFK´
3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH6L[WK$&0,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ,QIRUPDWLRQDQG.QRZOHGJH0DQDJHPHQW

>@1)ULHGPDQ.0XUSK\65XVVHO³/HDUQLQJWKH6WUXFWXUHRI'\QDPLF3UREDELOLVWLF1HWZRUNV´WK&RQIHUHQFHRQ
8QFHUWDLQW\LQ$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH 8$, 

>@&%HU]XLQL³5HSUHVHQWLQJ7LPHLQ&DXVDO3UREDELOLVWLF1HWZRUNV´8QFHUWDLQW\LQ$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFHYROSS
(OVHYLHU6FLHQFH3XEOLVKHU%9

>@7'HDQ..D]DQDZD³$0RGHOIRUUHDVRQLQJDERXWSHUVLVWHQFHDQGFDXVDWLRQ´&RPSXWDWLRQDO,QWHOOLJHQFHYROSS


>@3'DJXP$*DOSHU(+RUYLF³'\QDPLF1HWZRUN0RGHOVIRUIRUHFDVWLQJ´WK&RQIHUHQFHRQ8QFHUWDLQW\LQ
$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH6DQ0DWHR0RUJDQ.DXIPDQQ3XEOLVKHUV,QFSS

>@$<7DZILN(1HXIHOG³7HPSRUDO%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV´3URFHHGLQJVRI7LPH,QWHUQDWLRQDO:RUNVKRSRQ
7HPSRUDO.QRZOHGJH5HSUHVHQWDWLRQDQG5HDVRQLQJSS3HQVDFROD)ORULGD

>@*03URYDQ³7UDGHRIIVLQ&RQVWUXFWLQJDQG(YDOXDWLQJ7HPSRUDO,QIOXHQFH'LDJUDPV´3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHWK
&RQIHUHQFHRIWKH8QFHUWDLQW\LQ$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH-XO\

>@-)$OOHQ³0DLQWDLQLQJ.QRZOHGJHDERXW7HPSRUDO,QWHUYDOV´&RPP$&0YROSS

>@93DYORYLF%-)UH\76+XDQJ³7LPH6HULHV&ODVVLILFDWLRQ8VLQJ0L[HG6WDWH'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV´
&935¶)W&ROOLQV&2

>@*=ZHLJ65XVVHOO³&RPSRVLWLRQDO0RGHOOLQJ:LWK'31V´5HSRUW1R8&%&6'6HSWHPEHU

 
>@$(1LFKROVRQ³$&DVH6WXG\LQ'\QDPLF%HOLHI1HWZRUNV0RQLWRULQJ:DONLQJ)DOO3UHGLFWLRQDQG'HWHFWLRQ´
7HFKQLFDO5HSRUW'HSDUWPHQWRI&RPSXWHU6FLHQFH0RQDVK8QLYHUVLW\

>@$*DUJ93DYORYLF-05HKJ³$XGLR9LVXDO6SHDNHU'HWHFWLRQXVLQJ'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV´3URFHHGLQJV
RIWK,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRI$XWRPDWLF)DFHDQG*HVWXUH5HFRJQLWLRQ*UHQ%ROH)UDQFHSS

>@93DYORYLF$*DUJ-05HKJ76+XDQJ³0XOWLPRGDO6SHDNHU'HWHFWLRQXVLQJ(UURU)HHGEDFN'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ
1HWZRUNV´,(((&RQIHUHQFHRQ&RPSXWHU9LVLRQDQG3DWWHUQ5HFRJQLWLRQ+LOWRQ+HDG,VODQG6&-XQH

>@93DYORYLF$*DUJ-05HKJ³0XOWLPRGDO6SHDNHU'HWHFWLRQXVLQJ,QSXW2XWSXW'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNV´
,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRI0XOWLPRGDO,QWHUIDFHV%HLMLQJ&KLQD2FWREHU

>@56FKDIHU7:H\UDWK³$VVHVVLQJ7HPSRUDOO\9DULDEOH8VHU3URSHUWLHV:LWK'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV´8VHU
0RGHOOLQJ3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH6L[WK,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFH$XJXVW

>@8.MDHUXOII³$&RPSXWDWLRQDO6FKHPHIRU'\QDPLF%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUNV´5,661-XQH

>@-)RUEHV7+XDQJ..DQD]DZD65XVVHOO³7KH%$7PRELOH7RZDUGVD%D\HVLDQ$XWRPDWHG7D[L´3URFHHGLQJVRI
,-&$,

 

You might also like