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공급계약과 위험공유
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강의 개요
Readings
Chapter 4 (Simchi-Levi et al.)
च⎒
੪ᛢ च⎒
│ᒳ⓿ ㆆឧ
• ৳ଇূ≻
• Buyback & Revenue Sharing
MTO/MTS ৳ଇᶪᾪ⋎Ḛ ৳ଇূ≻
• Payback & Cost Sharing
ᭂ│ᒳ⓿ ㆆឧ⋎ ㉚ ੪ᛢ リ⾶ヲᚪ⌢
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구매관리 개요
੪ᛢ(╮) ☏⎒ḯ
≂⏁Ẋ` ㍚ḯ㍒⋎ ሮᑺ ᶿ ㆆឧ(⏎⒎⒪, ㆆ, ⍂┚ㆆ)⑂ ⍶⋎Ḛ ੪ᛢ
⏎ࣾ ☏ ੪ᛢᭂ⎧⑲ ⤦⚾㉖ྒ ᭂ⎧ ⚛ࣾ ੪ᛢ ମྣ ☏⎒ḯ ⚛ࣾ
│ᒳ⓿ ㆆឧ
• ┚ㆆ ㆆ⛆/⏎ࣾ⋎ ⭖ྒ ⋿㊣⑲ Ẋ ৳ଇ ⋃⦲ࣾ ╲⒪
৳ଇ⋃⦲⌾ ㌏ᔣ⦲ূ ੪⪓⑲ ㉂⓿
৳ଇূ≻(Supply Contract) ⦲ম
ᭂ│ᒳ⓿ ㆆឧ
• ⊏㉚ ৳ଇ ⋃⦲ ጎྒ ㌂ᠺῚ⒣(Spot market)⑲ ╲⒪
ᭂ⎧ ᤍ ৳ଇ ␂㋖⑂ ⩚Ẋ㍒㉞ ⒆ྒ ੪ᛢ リ⾶ヲᚪ⌢ ੪ḯ
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전략적 품목: 공급계약
৳ଇূ≻ ৳ଇ⋃⦲⌾ ੪ᛢ⋃⦲ ं ⏎㍚㉚ ੪ᛢᙺ ᧲⒣㉞ ≂࿆ᑺ ⊏⬟ ⑲⑳⑂ ຐ⑲ྒ
ၮჂ ମ⋪㉞ ⒆⑊ ␂㋖ ৳␞
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전략적 품목: 공급계약 – 2 stage sequential chain
Discussion
• ␂⌾ ग⑲ ⎲⋿ᄖྒ ⎮ ༂ࣾ ␂㋖(Risk)⑂ ࣾ⚾ঊ ᄖྒࣾ?
• ⑲ᓪ㉚ ␂㋖ ◺ᠶᓇ⋎ ⊲ኢ ⋿㊣⑂ ⭖ঞྒࣾ?
• ᛊ⑺ ᅎ ⋃⦲ࣾ ⚿⓿⺳㉧(vertical integration)⑲ ᄖ⋆ᝲ ᠲ⋅⑲ ᑺ⚾ঞ
ྒࣾ?
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전략적 품목: 공급계약 – 2 stage sequential chain
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전략적 품목: 공급계약 – 2 stage sequential chain
Discussion:
1. Ẋᛢ⋃⦲⌾ ৳ଇ⋃⦲ ⑲⑳ ⊲ኹঊ ᙺ?
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전략적 품목: 공급계약 – 수직적 통합
ᛊ⑺ ৳ଇ⋃⦲⌾ Ẋᛢ⋃⦲ࣾ ឦᅎ ㉚ ମ⋃⋎ ẋ㉚ᝲ(vertical integration)?
ᅎ ⋃⦲ ं ㌂ଆ 㑎ᚂ ࣾ ⋄⑊ ᷛᶮ⏎ࣾ ᤍ 『ᛢࣾধᛊ ᔢ
ᭂ⎧ ၮ⑲⸮
• 『ᛢࣾধ = $125, ⦖᪂ࣾ⭖ = $20
• ┓ᭂ⎧ = $100,000, ᦾთᭂ⎧ = $35
ሮᑺḚ,
• Cu = 125 – 35 = 90, Co = 35 – 20 = 15
• CR = 90/(90+15) = 0.86
⩚⓿ ᷛᶮᓇ = 16,000, in-stock probability = 0.9
৳ଇᶪᾪ │⦲ ମ ⑲⑳ = $1,014,500 > $910,700 (Sequential case)
Q. ⍚ ⑲ᓮ ম৺ࣾ ඖ⌢ྒࣾ?
Ẋᛢ⋃⦲ࣾ ◺ᠶᓇ⑂ ম┓㉖ྒ ⎮ Ẋᛢ⋃⦲ᛊ ␂㋖⑂ ᔢ㉖⋪ ⩚⓿㍒㉖ᢾᕚ ৺⒇
⒪ ␂㋖ ቊᠶ⋎ 『ᛢମ㎊ᙺ リମ(⚇, ⎒ࣾ 12,000चᙺ ถ⊲ࣾྒ ⎮ ⑲⑳⑂
リମ) ᅎ ⋃⦲ࣾ ␂㋖⑂ ৳␞㉖ᝲ ၒ ␂㋖⑂ ऎ㉞ ⒆ᢾᕚ ◺ᠶᓇ⑲ ⚛ࣾ
㉦
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전략적 품목: 공급계약 – Buyback
Buyback Contracts
Ẋᛢ⋃⦲ ৺⒇⒪ᙺ ৳ଇ⋃⦲ࣾ ᚪ ┓㉲⛂ ࣾধ⋎ ㎊(৺⒇⒪ྒ ৳ଇ⋃⦲ࣾ
⦖᪂㉦) buyback ࣾধ > (Ẋᛢ⋃⦲) ⒪⦖᪂ࣾ⭖ࣾ (why?)
Ẋᛢ⋃⦲ ৺⒇⒪ᕚ ⑶㉚ ␂㋖⑲ ऎẊ(⚇, Coࣾ ऎẊ)㉖ ৳ଇ⋃⦲ࣾ ␂㋖
⑺ᙺ ৳␞
ሮᑺḚ, Ẋᛢ⋃⦲ࣾ ◺ᠶᓇ⑂ ྖ⑲ྒ ⑶Ḻᬊᕚ ⒏⎧: 『ᛢମ㎊ ⚛ࣾ
৳ଇ⋃⦲ྒ Ẋᛢ⋃⦲ ◺ᠶᓇ ⚛ࣾᕚ ⑶㉚ ⑲⑳ ⚛ࣾ
Discussion
1. Buyback⋎ ሮᙶ ৳ଇ⋃⦲⌾ Ẋᛢ⋃⦲ ⑲⑳ ⑲│৺ ᭂ㉖⋪ ⊲ኹঊ ᑺ⛆?
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전략적 품목: 공급계약 – Buyback
Buyback Contracts: ⌆┚
Buyback ࣾধ = $55
Ẋᛢ┎
• Cu = 125 – 80 = 45
• Co = 80 – 55 = 25 ( < 60)
• CR = 0.64
• ⩚⓿◺ᠶᓇ = 14,000
ମ ⑲⑳
• Ẋᛢ┎ ମ⑲⑳ = $513,800
• ৳ଇ⋃⦲ ମ⑲⑳ = $471,900
• ৳ଇᶪᾪ │⦲ ମ⑲⑳ = $985,700
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전략적 품목: 공급계약 – Revenue-sharing
Revenue-Sharing Contracts
৳ଇ⋃⦲ࣾ Ⴢᛢ ࣾধ⑂ ඬ⪒ྒ ῞ Ẋᛢ⋃⦲ࣾ ᛢ⪚ ⑺ᙺ ৳ଇ⋃⦲ᕚ │
• ᛢ⪚ ৳␞ྒ ᛢ⪚⑲ ᤚᷛ㉚ ⎮(⚇ 『ᛢᄚ ⎮)⋎ᛊ ᤚᷛ
• Ⴢᛢࣾধ ㉖ᑻᕚ ⑶㉲ Ẋᛢ⋃⦲ ⏎ࣾࣾ ඬ≂⚾ᢾᕚ Ẋᛢ⋃⦲ ৺⒇⒪⋎
㉚ ␂㋖ ऎẊ
Ẋᛢ⋃⦲ࣾ ◺ᠶᓇ⑂ ⚛ࣾῚⶢྒ ⑶Ḻᬊᕚ ⒏⎧
৳ଇ⋃⦲ྒ Ⴢᛢࣾধ ㉖ᑻ⋎ ㉚ ᛢ⪚ ऎẊᙺ Ẋᛢ⋃⦲ ◺ᠶᓇ ⚛ࣾ⋎ ሮᙶ ᛢ⪚ ⚛
ࣾ ᤍ ᛢ⪚ ৳␞ᕚ ᶿỂ
Discussion
1. Ⴢᛢࣾধ ㉖ᑻ⑲ ◺ᠶᓇ৺ ৳ଇ⋃⦲⌾ Ẋᛢ⋃⦲ ⑲⑳⋎ ⭖ྒ ⋿㊣?
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전략적 품목: 공급계약 – Revenue-sharing
Revenue-Sharing Contracts: ⌆┚
Ⴢᛢࣾধ: $80 $60
Revenue-sharing: ᛢ⪚ 15%ᙺ ৳ଇ⋃⦲ᕚ │
• $125 * 0.15 = $18.75/unit sold
Ẋᛢ┎ ᚪᾢ ᤍ ⩚⓿ ◺ᠶᓇ
• Cu = 125 – (60 + 18.75) = 46.25
• Co = 60 – 20 = 40
• CR = 0.65
• ⩚⓿ ◺ᠶᓇ = 14,000
ମ ⑲⑳
• Ẋᛢ┎ = $504,325
• ৳ଇ⋃⦲ = $481,375
• ৳ଇᶪᾪ │⦲ ମ⑲⑳ = $985,700
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전략적 품목: 공급계약 – 다른 수단들
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전략적 품목: 공급계약 – 현실적 문제점들
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공급계약: MTS – MTO Case
⑲⌾ ग ⎮ ⒞⒪⓿⑶ ᠶ┚┎?
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공급계약: MTS – MTO Case
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공급계약: MTS – MTO Case
Discussion
1. Payback ࣾধ⑲ ৳ଇ⋃⦲ ᷛᶮᓇ⋎ ⭖ྒ ⋿㊣?
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공급계약: MTS – MTO Case
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공급계약: MTS – MTO Case
Discussion
1. ⏎ࣾ৳␞ᭂ␦৺ ৳ଇࣾধ⑲ ৳ଇ⋃⦲ ᷛᶮᓇ⋎ ⭖ྒ ⋿㊣?
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공급계약: MTS – MTO Case
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공급계약: MTS – MTO Case
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공급계약: 정보의 비대칭성(Information Asymmetry)
┓᧲ ᭂ⭫ḯ
৳ଇ⋃⦲⌾ ੪ᛢ⋃⦲ ं छ ⎒ ┓᧲ᙺ ৳␞㉞ ቊ ᤚᷛ
੪ᛢ⋃⦲ࣾ ⑲⑳⑂ ⩚㍒㉖ମ ␂㉲ ⎒ ┓᧲ᙺ ㅾᚪྒ ⑶Ḻᬊ ╲⒪
৳ଇ⋃⦲ࣾ ㅾᔢ⛂ ⎒ ┓᧲⋎ ૺ८㉖⋪ ᷛᶮূ㎋⑂ ㉖ྒ ⎮ ৳ଇ⋃⦲ ␂㋖⑲
⯢⛎
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비전략적 품목
ᭂ│ᒳ⓿ ㆆឧ
৳ଇ⋃⦲ࣾ ╲⒪, ⌆: ⏎␞, ⦞ओ, ⋎ฆ⚾, য়ᠺ, ᝒឦᚪ ᤖჂ⦲ ᇯ
│⺳⓿ᕚ ⒣ମূ≻⑂ Ḟ㌶㉖ඖ ␂㋖/ᭂ⎧ ऎẊᙺ ␂㉲ ⊏㉚ リ⾶ヲᚪ⌢ ੪ḯ㉂⎒
৾ᔦᄚ ␂㋖ ⎒Ẋ
৺⒇⒪: ⎒ ᪆㍓ῢḯ⋎ ㉚ ৺⒇ ⒪ ␂㋖
⒪ᠲ␂㋖: Ὶ⒣ ࣾধ ᦾთ⋎ ㉚ ⒪ᠲ⓿ ␂㋖
৳ଇ╯: ৳ଇᓇ ╯⋎ ㉚ ␂㋖
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비전략적 품목
৳ଇূ≻ ␞㌓
⒣ମূ≻
• ḞჂূ≻(forward contract): ᒖ Ὶ┎ ੪ᛢᓇ ᤍ ੪ᛢ ࣾধ⑂ ᚪ ূ≻
• ⑶Ⴢ⑺(Delivery date)⋎ ┓㉲⛂ ᠺᓇ⑂ ┓㉲⛂ ࣾধ⋎ ⑶Ⴢ-⑶
• ⒪ᠲ⓿ ␂㋖⑂ ☂⑺ ⒆ඖ ৺⒇⒪⋎ ㉚ ␂㋖⋎ ⪚ ࣾྣḯ(why?)
⌳Ṗ
• Option contract: ᚪ option premium⑂ ⚾᪆㉖ ᒖ Ὶ┎⋎ ┓㉲⛂ ࣾ
ধ(㊇ᶪࣾ, exercise price)⋎ ┓㉲⛂ ⊏⚾ ੪ᛢ㉞ ⒆ྒ ઊᚪᙺ ㎋ᇛ
cf. ḞჂূ≻৺ ᚪ ⌳Ṗ⋎Ḛ ੪ᛢ⒎ྒ ઊᚪᛊ ࣾ⚾ᝮ ᠲྒ ⋄⑊
• ᒖ Ὶ┎⋎ Ὶ⒣ᶿ㍧⋎ ᛜ⪒⊲ ੪ᛢ ᠺᓇ ╮┓ ࣾྣ ৺⒇⒪ ␂㋖ ऎẊ
• ৳ଇ⒎ࣾ ␂㋖ ( ࣾᕚ ㈂ᚪ⋂⑂ ᤙ⑊)
cf. ⑺ᤖ⓿ᕚ ص㈂ᚪ⋂ + ㊇ᶪࣾ > ḞჂূ≻ ࣾধض
㌂ᠺ ८ᒖ: ㌂ᠺ Ὶ⒣⋎Ḛ ੪ᛢ
• ৳ଇ╯/ࣾধᦾთ⋎ ㉚ ⒪ᠲ⓿ ␂㋖
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비전략적 품목
৳ଇূ≻ ␞㌓
リ⾶ヲᚪ⌢: ࣿ ূ≻ ⒣┎⑂ ㍒㉖⋪ ╮㉧
• Base Commitment Level: ḞჂূ≻ (⩚Ẋ ᠺᓇ ㍓᧲)
• Option Level: ⌳Ṗ⋎ ㉲ ⪒ࣾ ᠺᓇ ㍓᧲(ᶿ㍧⋎ ሮᑺ ੪ᛢ ᠺᓇ ᦾ ࣾྣ)
• ඖ᜶⚾ ㌂ᠺ ८ᒖ
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비전략적 품목
৳ଇূ≻ ␞㌓: ␂㋖ ⎒Ẋं ⾶ᔆ⑲ᇚ-⌢㈂
Low High
Inventory risk
High N/A*
Option level (supplier)
Price and
Inventory risk
Low shortage risks
(buyer)
(buyer)
*For a given situation, either the option level or the base commitment level may
be high, but not both.
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