Project Risk Assessment Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process Mohammad A. Mustafa, Senor, 126 ond Jomal F. ALBabar sntgemies a scot 8 Ur Pes oe eS sate coe I. terrcoveron CONSTILCTION the mn the natin ee epee, fan sire ak hath ve ae enges snd chanetrzed ty 2 umber of uncemaicn Ft ‘Sle. mezrey abet tetber echo, icomrar far. td een the sos se pie kc as tat fst sey consucon bjt. Asa eu. may sens fon proce fa ahve te tine ou ad ual sale ‘of nmi o ane an assess rk. These tls generally tele ‘nthe conmanorsexpene and tuo, Re do cnc toe gem wera and sya sess invotes ina rove i] One feson ie Be ack a2 fala. staged soproah to combi ale face of fk senate io a Poin apd manage sae Honever, as snkricion projets become more cen and omit ai a wed ues f umd ten fa sa puta rept eftctvaly to he eet of cera ae rk EP cosacton press therfore. te ied fora Lose ans atonal Ft ssn cede rabor eater of ten as ese Roce re! osemate mol Mae bee ppones for me m he sk eaton she of the Tak management procs. Rena ad Rigs] cal thee mate oto Srl egeens’ 1 ell mec (ee peta ara Sy and 3 weap odes Ge sy st ea. Ea Dies of enc sd te Mone Co sna ad ‘Boece dag 3). At example of comp eels 3 ‘ay Se [Range nd togn tte fa promi Sse om to mo im 1) Seme of hese models regis dealed quntate infor ecwertrcne see 3100 ad nn 3980. De a #9 hors Di Sa Roa he apply auch nel 0 sel cotton rik {Ee mms cc pnw ea ‘Shecihe are whe aa ge suo Rane The oj ft paper Is 0 ile sme approach or pote Fak sessment ough be ane heey proces [RH Te Ai proves feu andeiy unfersod (o auyae poet rst. ya ese Secon anak Imeustogy ar alos eajetne at wel moje fact ‘orto conned th he pes nish peels bat ‘eset tr reget he non appeased Supe Inpanicmrng mestan ranean eplcing tT Aa hese ame btn oh me “Tt AHP s ed bet ht 9 contr in een teas ofa poets ie ve a Ta he AHP willbe slo pode a mes ft kis nd ‘kins, In th way. the AHP Socom living pcre of be azz sdesansg oe poss’, AHP bas Se apples even Sls 181 9-10, LugisG0) lee aed of poet consis mungemer {HP haben pb Sahanon olen stg IN. and ne secon of Ret cating scene wo factor oer hn ine afd estate costed 04. No pr Sentra een condi on Oe weaioy of he AAP in ons poses vk agement. Tis pope stem prod ats ppcten oe ARP ia Sk ase ache esc ccton we bse the AHP Secon ve ge a Elasscaton seme ofthe sks eocumered pres te ‘Secon IV, ne api he AHP o nen te rates some Sroing a Sige pot in Bunglesh Tah lat sso et fhe a srrary ofthe pape oper it) 2 dSesn he Eni use ofthe AK toe ir cece Sa 0 9 rt ae tebe ety he mot ia ap, Te ethyl be ‘Seto level tees he vel eject ts a the essen prelem. The element afecig te decison ae spree asermecae kel. The tment les compris the isn sues This pe of hich provers Ser oa see ‘Ebwraion of alle fore ating ie ssn aad et ‘atominps Onc the Serey at en consuced, e Secon mae teins te prieaon prendre deem the rele mporunce of he skmene m exh lee of Be erry lemons eat le re purse compared ah ‘ep tel porta in ming Bein unde os hon Tee compurion tke Wh fom How inpeaet ‘Senet the compared 1 uh report ow ete cement inthe inedly Nabe lee Forte ee ao ate tp of be hire sad orig dove ¢rumber of agate Imre formed fem he reef comparing eens Oat ee wn spec san lene ne kv ened bent The clement aang nt hegeese propa “Te dekon waker can express is pense ene Gre). meserselyprtene, sien pete ery Sogly pred ce earemely peesed, Tee dep feeences ole ten nett aloe ee [51.151 Mand 6) repetvely (2) 6) ad a Imermeite ates for ronpromse esta ta eee ‘alin ues, Te veil ele wed ft ARP saris he sie alee inrpote bjt” enerene. a6) ‘he omg the comparison. he proces mo. ef ng ew rf acu ene sn camen inthe ace Upper level ate compu he Sompoens of he somal igemerer snl) ith seghs of Be dechon sheraives me hen anetoied y sega the wg ogy th sch Tas doe flowing # pak fom cop fhe acy exch sheets A the ost level ad ping eel sos each ‘Synent of the pts The Outi of ie aepesann it scrmalicd veer of the oer weir of he par, The Sutera! ta or deerinieg he weigh as new ash Ite 1), Queszee raed abo een i of AH are ‘ess! ne aw secon “he we ofthe ANP o mode and nae el nr piblers cme rae most ese sng emisoconpuerfopleneaton fe meted oh Exper Choe 6 3) makes act Ing and wong the errhp gach cine ‘courts, UM toewrmexnos ss CuassresTios oF Prove We no clasty the varios petal sores of rk onsactn pros. Fg sere the prt conges [nt hy ody te sper tune oe ed ‘ep a ealed cacti ses of apes s fe ig prope cacti sche tat sows Be erie sure fra in consacion pokes The popred ‘Senin seme s apne of sak ego: sf Go ts Pisses rake nc od eon is ‘lial ard emma aks en ris [eb ered es, ~ 7 ‘We te of oi ik ie evry canzoni cee one so exhausts ost oe i ocated witha post. woul be mace! fe degre fer pole Ties, We focus or eno on eels eer geri fe es of God Risks ‘The sik of ae of Oo, oF somatines red 0a fee mje is erm appopeiced, Ing by sane at (eto describe ven tht re urease td say bey \atyone's dest coool Tae evens oct ob eno tare {nae fen veered wap marl phone, Tee com "ks der i cago) af Bose elated sae ares {nd yeoman do to eater, Mo Bs ‘Shee mere term commonly aed incomes Sige end eages cS ites Physce Rsk “The piel ris hat al under ti categay ae associa i daage of prone) ora hat te ia os ot ‘hs under fis poston uch sl dag 1 sc "oe or pers dame to equipment and aera hr Innes abd deaths and oelepeenion of mh or cn Flrencet ad Economie Risks Mos rid tele i aes project ae fai read. Pies finding coon ¢ peel cee ie fev coma. fog sores Sect ds wet dig spe may cate ine Ss and ann polos ‘may coments re neh Te owe st ane hough nds 1 comple he worst ue ee cs lie othe contacter int sable ates ade at ables be court to proceed th be monk. Ante poe Gin tt heh bao eget) ton, heh a ‘he er of magne he congue sh ar eth ‘ove conse Police! and Emronmentt Risks These rks may arse fom te inrstns between he coarse, te fom govenment sh he sueudig cio ‘ent or sii. Tyla. petals a lee neg ‘pera o eran procs. The mn ei ee cioteexperaon ote conmcer's eure by he ae exer tat net agDeven Rte Bs ema lb he ig seine cetecive dan, agus Sesto a pln, es snd Scions den. ace gelpesl an poche ee Plsoon, and ersten of en with mathe 9 sone Job Ste Related Risks ach ser of he consti indy tats 98m jb sel i. Difeten sb condom. for example et 2 ‘jor deem of work progr selog sl tr ‘Roving err On he a ung conaos eh fu thor podhigind eupnet batons 9 met derma shed dels. Hene jo ee ae {Se metas ning othe offer operate in conriction ofc, Te Hinting pi soe "tral and pce of br: Sol ied er tage condos ata hroge and gale. Nee every project iter all ee Mints of i, Tis use can bese a gud ey he poet ke Ina pret ‘Wensw ge a aplion of he AHP oases he ies ofa ieraionl cnstoton prj: The Jamans Mpa. ‘ose Bag nBagaden Ii Projet Bocksround ‘The poet imelesconsractng 44 Tem og sp coe tte Tamura ser Te be wif ate pe pupa 1) sk Caesores na ‘censeetonProest sseping oud andl wie. 2)camieg Np ope lc ‘Sits and comicaon tines sos th tet. Deeg ie ay dlp in sel nd coer fr bo te seen tnt spesmicures of the tain Srge, Ror tsi os ‘Sno gids buns ies} at eh Ther atk ces ferential oe big s,s ing eg epee ‘burly 00 mech. gor edging works gpesences 3 ‘lon te eure onset spe pects of fue hone to 50'm Seow We gree Rood pe Posing ‘Sumer and cher oder ffshere commen tees ‘love acid Ned kl ued oss Sie The AHP Risk Arzessment Model nhs secon. te ne followed in appbing te AHP assis th lis of he atu Slur Bye pret rey Sep I Searing he elements of te problem io & erro Fo spre, vcs fcr i Mest exes ee! of kof lemon Bree Prosar feed ecese ‘ce mia, sigue ol farsa one ee ‘not relevant rk gas ave been elec for constr. {ime denomarin, Te owiy naman of lnenil ond Exomomic Risks Because ofthe proj compl, te ez sunber of contacts and he cnpeton ocd wih erg tonal tow how ad egupmen, ea oan be fascial ls dat con ced in pret. Fe cos Subcoirctrs Roni! DefoutsSabesnracs fi fu way rest seas Sanco an tre Coysfr he pine comcor The pine ontacor should evew ‘rely th qulifaons 9 poeta scooters Net fete by sahonracios seh as ang to compe te ho {py heb ay rsa I Sand ys, and cones ‘em ger cous ‘nowalbiyof Funds: Unaatsity of fads fom te semen and untraly payments fo he conc er Sik ‘or dat sould be costed by = contain. Toe pet willbe fiend y he Wors Bak ni cofncg fs oe ‘eer develope fasncig specie, However here te stant of eoultons and rtron co he Covet Bangs reprdag he us of fin lll hs Pro. ‘ton end Price Escalation: These dhs ate geen sgecuatve tse in aoeposbe to inure at cok Inraes which aie pry av 4s flan. For ean Bl the gues pce or lr mec pis and eae fx gers ent er mjor eo ay Racca. The coast fips may nner aba cons doe pie chars {ich major cowircton ters no, ase ra Aeaing ees. were spp, pling trp an see sted operat tho any erat chases ras for tse hay oie equips may Yes essai coe fr {onc Ih atm he ster fou ee os of ‘secon esac epee equiped ps sof Wars susteacion maser Sod te gurl tend of so Sie lato are sabe routes fv prtieg nto an ‘esi poe fr poe seen Potica Ras Tre coy of Banga rsa wa wil ay eghrng county tbe canes f+ war eaking Ot ine feo ot ‘en all. There we ely cbse ek cng tn ea Tis: ance, ge canges Inger pl Ses ret castors ant eepon impo tesco eee esl eipotain of sacs sup nd it Acts of God Risks sets or damage daring hanson he wok Sica anyon besa oe Elly ps of “Eathgaies Te seed ridge location a the tn of Sagas stan ina maces sive aims tegon The lesan are uae of posse pc of meat on ‘Geb, unde, suturing Seer ing nos find enbucrens Dura tbe crstston pase, howe (rere arenes cabs Fae at ale ie pailycompleed permanent Mors ad ow thy i triad at coves ihn te ange pou The contort sang work the snags heafetnofee Water Damaz ana loa: The sete poste sabjest © seal foneng nie teers a er MNCs ie Sellen ying Soon tom th moe oe sh Fir. Teefore potatoe of snp ser lesen the Ra bibs and of rer oes te of puamoan prance. Asher Source of mab Os pesy of he rer oes ua te conriton an sseuety cau dag 0 Susur wii fot rc of wae. Aneto Bod ‘oti! beak tough sited basal wp wah ‘and, oF erode te Aer enbinknens Bere hy He om ed ‘Sl Subsidence and Colopse: Ares comer! snes to siene and ely ae apo rene aco oe ta on entakent Ie kot ate eae Dg Ineton comb of oly conoid mien sed ‘est, exend wo peat peu Dag ese net Setce tse ws wl be eathely uma, eps ease (fe potiniy ote ter, which case fe ence urea fr dsp excwatos, Whe he ee’ oe Fs EF image may be eeanely analy te connec dy Tose fon af corporal ot lees 2 and 3 of she ietey aston ng Level pretense coascacion fers otra ga. mam The mow tra soe age pec. Level svn e tee po ses or enss Fhe wl rok of e proce Altough tot Flgte han ‘ional lee of clean ever ose sey, fa sesk toatl: wf) Cul be mero ad coi ‘evees ens et and terse Sep 2 Dewlp the weve weigh of te vous oe “he imponance ofthe facia andsblicors and Se Hel hod ells erste dmin’ nex! For bis pps | Jigme are else ffom te mrazenee Mf the cevron | frm and mates of udgmens ae forte. Fir ecm er deerme te elaiveiagrnce he ra i {Ge sco lee Macc. ples aac of Gee 3% 3 ‘Bae met uso is Tate Ths mare sho tu hn ls te dg oe wea’ ‘noe inpocan ut pli fala one AHP aoe Freee cai legit tice tis ne some Sle Tae main resoe forts he managaners cone soa te conequees of farce ass tensile te ‘hallo of fins fom the gvermest Taf ara ‘i Banga shen asthe roel a te sept to shange Lave or repuaons Ins a that oaks et es Sse of he prot Or he er han. ames pe Sm ow ny ete ha Tre ai a sows tat wen fi ls ard a0 (Gal are compte. Oe saseman wa tase seat Judge ac sag re tna eo te mune) rey song ore Moura (een on Oe mu sae “hs jagnent mn beveen was herfore cone, Tae ste Ite tow mporuce of acs of God et tte ie wll Se ‘ged ling no cosideon these hinds ef faces For Simba Yeon. pia ke ae judg be fe te oe Inpro 32 a Go ‘man be mae whch ae enous he waegle anie ee lagna Te dion eamen ofthe ar at 2 eal 6 one elemens n somparet with hrc ad lost Ee Seen of era sepoc of tpr ange Sloe exaintion of te alyers mate w eine he seitivemmprance of he tee firs Conideted Stas at Imangenen hat ot been fly comicer Inver Bronson AND log as dacs me test cook Dusit i te ony tocar oa Ine ee ote rue som tn fre th Imus eo 0 81 ‘ilar procedure lcd toch igen oesue rie impose of be aac ante elaine tte eves of ik igh eam oe ow ool sk) Thee fates of james om ubacsad &Gh mae he bre lls of tee frm. “he ree parame of he vais face ace hen ce od athe component of he bite eigen fe Frurcey Por cup uiby the mae town Tee ‘eae ingorane fe fase of rake compe Faas atts te be ite relate dnporaae (5), flowed by pli wits (267) and aly eu of Gs with eave ‘seh of 0078. Tae relate imporane of be aati of TREI9 Wik npect toe veal alae sown clue Sf Tab The ike of he nario ee en Ste cocina te str three oh vera sal ae eras of onde he mat alent soc in ee ining vel of sk hs rien wi 9 lan posse F048, allowed fp tanger i el Lvs sabi 0208. Tiaason nso ebaence sd lapse we Seen te a {nowt th et porn sacs wy psy 07 "hon somaya teins tte fl of sae lr tp. eco of igh etry, an a Sal ite domed y aprensig the ese wie hough tener “Srl sow hat whe lata ae cried wth De Judgene ade ye managenet of he Som the poe ‘Shree Jow ns oh eiband oF O00) ane ‘otono ofa ‘Sentiny Anabi The sceme ofthe arse peed ssove t Mp dopa on be hearty aha! by be ‘peecne ne ee pre mle be Jens muy ia a chang in be oaome. ing Exper Choc de seit tthe comes citeet hans cae (se, Fer cane ig. shown ctainiy f th coe 10 changes ia he etine mporaace of Oe aha ks feor Mia coe wi of08, poet nt © ‘oti ial fe rate porn oi fa ee (se Steely ana wig cevented 0 O58 ot ey Be ect wou be ceed se 4 nam tt tak ros hy of te dean o eras ca Deed tn spe. we fae netted esas of ak ass sein toutrecicn pos A ishene of casing Oe ‘mos ste! of nt fa buen devo, The ANP far een Incl and spd sesing hemline of comcng ‘The Janans Mtpurpose Sige. Rak tos ine os roe ae ented and corpora in ths asses Re 5s Shon cut te post ean aera lo rk proveEA Stn oe nda se ‘The AHP provides a vale sppertfor cont i the ecson making pros. Isa competent farce So ‘Nokig tough he desert Te aural cet heed te fs import ae ema hog vicars. Wale ts pape ese he eo AHP in en aus and aut sae of the pers anagen proces. san tha he di sing sera ‘pois to rik ite rot nape tig fe Be aM (Sef app decion making in id atnon, epic ‘ction sa selon, empty ta soc, Some stony repting he ei he 6 he AMP bane teen res The At ener ted t ulin he bach 2 be scommeston of (7 2) elec mde pte ‘ef rete consitecy [1 16), Th ten be arson tow te sande ess hare he uber of Semen rent ‘tan 8. When te miner of sens is ge ey ca Se [Eouped in ches aad thea compursbie Users ee ego, {Gres se tps to ange semen in esting ot tscndng oe atoning he propery at hed. Ths al dering thn desoeponed fey Claers Weaning wih [ge ekmow or example) td ching oly fee tees (22) each clot Ten the serine fe he be conc. To ear a nent fr eo ace css 1 comparle, the salle clemem of Oe age soe ile a6 th urge cement aac cs Te dese ves of i ehmens ne ace ltrs es Aided byte pry ofthe common lees. sd eral ae ruled by he weg of tt eleect ne ares clase ln ‘hs way eps o he emer of th Sass Orc mpl! he feo daer ae then mega. The poe 5 ‘Sor Yoel yng te soon Cea oa aaa ‘ise tsi gen sem of te id cs, Tas song {nd compron must fe cad ot spray for ee pe 2: Hoots eleven ay nave be evar ake Posie te srt enon fom se cose to sae The second source af concery i he mur of ences rege sexes pier. Prom tana! mene. ‘et fungi sens ren tr ANP needs este than (a=) bens 0 Yee one elenet oe temang (1) fam wich spe can sutomatesly tos eet ‘oprah fring rie Hower. whee we re desing ‘iinongble tr for nich we have no meme ne fo longer cern of De pecs comepondene of be ‘Scent fa jeer 0a tuber wale eed seen {hu dgren nore we cra fe denen wal ee foe, we ul we ends fematon eae en ry {Sid fe devs sumer ese The nec af ded seal an Se sen te depen on beset of or ‘erp in he Fandom Tas we need 0s) ‘ose te es of oration nd dein how slut 3 pre rail csr. seeped ak ‘sy tt wcul tm tara somlen probity sit whch ae at ‘Rd comer for slang per of tne, peeps ere eas rege ne sn nd rer tant of ‘dgment and tceney for kr okton. Greeny tee Sens proen of chose Terie, none of apnea {Fie uly sz mpc sues nt spl’ de ‘he guia oy ave es owe ha eee ee {ulgmer may te ctvasad trough x acllydecged quee thonage. Eng relat nfrtuioe a iene sae or be brogued or sbored tugs sick foomasion poate Fee ee an po, ef pra jsemes te ARP wach nce ston se the form of compar ray be omsed tains, Hert tte inci aes mind Sy tse Ses ated ine AHP wahet the inenesten of reas ef ean inet. However, eveyone wo great whens fre fal eecane may Ses nbc pnts or ps ee Seth, these rei, eee ff ae me flee, On os fe eens [ANP model re angie mene hgh emer he ite aoe may for Ber inion © eco wah ‘Sethe tones of ac jules cites fom Sei exper cei essen” By lng esate ‘igen fom expers. operang gee 1 gn et hing, ve ca ensure a modiou ot vai, The AP has tle teen evened Yo del wiv sshons whee ee te Centos oe aera epee). Rerenasces 1) 1 Altar tsk ramp in onsin proce A ‘mi ane prac Sn BE 8 Byers o Bevan Cancug’ css2s The wus Nene pace nunc a ae pgp me tn epee ae eo