Argus Crude (2023-03-08)

Argus Crude
Crude market prices and analysis
Issue 23-47 | Wednesday 8 March 2023
Crude markets at a glance $/bl

Europe Basis Diff Bid Ask Change
North Sea Dated May Nsea -0.59 82.21 82.27 -1.79 u
Ice Brent mth 1 May 82.66 -0.63 u
Argus Brent Sour Dated -1.15 81.06 81.12 -1.48 u
WTI cif R'dam period 2 Dated +1.95 84.16 84.22 -2.34 u
Johan Sverdrup Dated -1.00 81.21 81.27 -1.79 u
North America Basis Diff Outright Change Russia Basis Diff Bid Ask Change
Nymex WTI mth 1 Apr 76.66 -0.92 u Urals fob Primorsk Dated -35.50 46.71 46.77 -1.79 u
WTI Midland Apr WTI +1.59 78.25 -0.70 u ESPO fob Apr Dubai swaps -9.00 71.86 71.96 -2.42 u
WTI Houston Apr WTI +1.77 78.43 -0.73 u
Mars Apr WTI -0.54 76.12 -0.46 u Delivered China Basis Diff Bid Ask Change
WCS Houston Apr CMA Nymex -8.63 68.19 -1.59 u Tupi Aug Ice Brent +3.00 84.55 85.15 -2.73 u
Mideast Gulf Basis Diff Bid Ask Change

Dubai May 82.01 82.11 -2.42 u
Oman May 81.99 82.09 -2.62 u
Murban May 82.85 82.95 -2.78 u
West Africa Basis Diff Bid Ask Change

Latin America Basis Diff Bid Ask Change Qua Iboe Dated +1.70 83.91 83.97 -1.79 u
Vasconia Jun WTI -0.86 75.79 76.19 -0.61 u Girassol Dated +2.40 84.61 84.67 -1.19 u
Castilla Jun WTI -8.86 67.49 68.49 -0.61 u Doba Dated -1.00 81.21 81.27 -1.79 u
Key benchmarks $/bl

Futures down on Fed concerns
April Nymex WTI today fell by 92¢/bl to $76.66/bl while May North Sea Dated Dubai WTI
Ice Brent fell by 63¢/bl to $82.26/bl. The May Brent-May WTI 110
spread narrowed to $5.45/bl.
100
Top headlines
hh 90
French strikes block refineries for 2nd day

Keystone pipeline limited to 72pc pressure 80
SK Earthon eyes China, Vietnam oil production
70
31 Aug 22 1 Nov 22 4 Jan 23 8 Mar 23
Contents
WTI vs Brent forward curve $/bl
Key spreads 2
US Gulf Coast and Midcontinent 3 ICE Brent Nymex WTI
Latin America 8 90
Canada9 85
North Sea Dated 10-13
Russia-Caspian14-15 80
Mediterranean16 75
West Africa 17
Mideast Gulf 18-19 70
Asia-Pacific 20-22 65
Official prices 23
Futures and forward markets 24 60
Daily netbacks 25
55
Deals done 27-29
May 2023 Jun 2024 Jul 2025 Aug 2026 Sep 2027 Sep 2028
News and announcements 30
Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Available on the Argus Publications App
Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-47 | Wednesday 8 March 2023
Key spreads $/bl

Spread ± Ice Brent month 1 vs Nymex WTI $/bl
Interregional Spreads 8
Transatlantic WTI = 0
Ice Brent vs Nymex WTI mth 1 +5.82 0.11
7
North Sea Dated vs WTI fob Houston +3.25 -1.03
Argus Brent Sour vs ASCI +5.13 -1.53
Qua Iboe vs WTI Houston +5.51 -1.06 6
Atlantic Basin to Asia
Brent-Dubai EFS +3.13 -0.45 hh
5
Forties vs Murban -0.51 0.60
Qua Iboe vs Kimanis -6.10 0.00
Americas to Asia 4
WTI Houston vs Kimanis -11.61 1.06
ANS USWC vs ESPO fob +8.31 1.81
3
Mars vs Oman -5.92 2.16
Regional Spreads 09 Dec 22 09 Jan 23 06 Feb 23 06 Mar 23
Americas pipeline
WTI Houston vs WTI Midland +0.18 -0.03
WTI Houston vs Mars +2.31 -0.27
Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) m1 $/bl
WTL Midland vs WTI Midland -0.54 -0.07 10.0
WTS vs WTI Midland -1.66 0.09
WCS Hardisty vs WCS Houston -6.47 0.69
9.0
WCS Cushing vs WCS Houston -1.48 0.02 8.0
Americas waterborne
WTI fob Houston vs Ekofisk -5.45 1.23 7.0
WTI cif Rotterdam vs CPC cif Med +5.30 -0.95
6.0
North Sea hh
Dated vs Nsea Forward mth 2 -1.27 1.09 5.0

Nsea forwards mth 1 vs mth 3 +0.76 0.01
Asia-Pacific
4.0
Dubai mth 1 vs mth 3 +2.02 0.04 3.0
Murban cfr China vs WTI del NE Asia -0.93 -0.40
Oman cfr China vs ESPO fob +12.79 -0.12 2.0
9 Sep 22 8 Nov 22 6 Jan 23 8 Mar 23
Mars vs WTI $/bl
1 Dubai month 1 vs month 3 $/bl
WTI = 0
0 3
Month 3 = 0
-1
-2
2
hh
-3
-4 hh
1
-5
-6
8 Sep 22 4 Nov 22 6 Jan 23 8 Mar 23
0
09 Dec 22 10 Jan 23 09 Feb 23
Announcement
Announcement
All data change announcements can be viewed online at
www.argusmedia.com/announcements. The holiday calendar showing which Argus reports are not
Alternatively, to be added to the email distribution list for published on which days is now available online
all announcements, please email: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/methodology/publishing-
datahelp@argusmedia.com. schedule
.
Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 2 of 40

Issue Ref: 553642

US Gulf Coast and Midcontinent
WTI regional prices and spreads $/bl Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI™) $/bl
Month Basis Diff Price
ASCI Apr Apr WTI -0.70 75.96

Cushing: 76.66
CMA Nymex + Argus
ASCI 2 Apr -0.70 76.06
WTI diff to CMA
-1.59
to the concurrent Cushing light sweet benchmark, with trade
+1.77
also reported at $1.10/bl premium to the CMA Nymex WTI +
Argus WTI diff to CMA.
Midland: 78.25 Bakken DAPL also traded for March delivery at a 95¢/bl
premium to the March CMA Nymex.
+0.18
In other news, the 622,000 b/d Keystone oil pipeline, a
Houston:
78.43 major pathway for Canadian heavy sour crude destined for
Apr delivery the US, will have its operating pressure capped at 72pc of its
Specified Minimum Yield Strength (SMYS) because of regula-
tor concerns over future accidents.
Heavy sour Canadian crude in the US weakened against The US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Ad-
the CMA Nymex WTI compared with Tuesday's session, but ministration (PHMSA) issued an amended corrective action
firmed over the course of the session on Wednesday. order on 7 March to Keystone operator TC Energy, limiting
Cold Lake traded in Cushing, Oklahoma, as wide as a the operating pressure even after the company completes
$10.15/bl discount to the CMA Nymex, but firmed later on to requirements laid out by the regulator.
trade at a $9.90/bl discount, and the grade was heard valued "The increasing severity of spills in recent years; the
at CMA -9.75 towards the end of the session. possibility of future failures caused by a combination of fac-
Cold Lake Houston traded at a $9/bl discount to the CMA tors similar to those involved in the 2022 and prior failures,
Nymex earlier in the session, but traded up to an $8.50/bl including transition welds," were among the considerations
discount by the end of the day. that compelled PHMSA to issue the updated order.
On Tuesday, Cold Lake Cushing and Cold Lake Houston The amended order applies to both Phase 1 and 2 of the
traded at a $9.44/bl and $7.94/bl weighted-average discount, Keystone system, with the lower pressures to be adhered to
respectively. Both grades widened their discounts by nearly within 30 days.
70¢/bl this session.
Access Western Blend (AWB), a heavy sour high total
acid number (TAN) crude, traded in Cushing at a $10.75/bl Assessment rationale
discount to the CMA Nymex WTI, almost matching Cold Lake The minimum volume was met and volume-weighted average
Cushing's decline against that basis. calculated according to the methodology for Bakken Cushing
Surmont Heavy Dilbit (SHD), another high-TAN heavy sour month, LLS, Mars, Poseidon, Southern Green Canyon, WCS
grade, traded in the Houston area at a $9.65/bl discount. Cushing, WCS Houston, WTI Diff to CMA Nymex, WTI Hous-
In North Datoka, Bakken DAPL's premium to the CMA ton, WTI Midland Enterprise, WTI Midland and WTL Midland.
Nymex firmed by 14¢/bl this session, with 21 total trades re- The Bakken at Clearbrook assessment was set on the basis of
ported for April delivery with a total volume of 32,000 b/d. fresh trade.
The grade was at a $1.59/bl average premium to the CMA In the absence of sufficient transaction information for WTS,
Nymex, or about $1.75/bl above the WTI Formula Basis. market value was assessed using intelligent judgment ac-
In Cushing, Oklahoma, Bakken was at a $1.11/bl premium cording to the methodology.

US Gulf Coast and Midcontinent
WTI $/bl
WTI formula WTI formula Roll to next
Timing Low High
basis price basis MTD month
WTI Cushing Apr 76.64 76.68 76.66 77.87 0.15

WTI Cushing May 76.79 76.83 76.81 0.04
WTI Cushing Jun 76.83 76.87 -0.15
WTI Cushing Jul 76.68 76.72
Timing Price WTI Nymex spread
CMA Nymex Apr 76.82 -0.16
CMA Nymex May 76.81 0.00
CMA Nymex Jun 76.58
CMA Nymex Jul 76.25
Diff Diff MTD MTD
Weighted
Timing Basis Diff low Diff high weighted weighted Low High weighted
average
average average average
Argus AGS Marker Apr 78.29 78.39 78.36 79.73
Argus AGS Apr Apr WTI +1.63 +1.73 +1.70 +1.86 78.29 78.39 78.36
WTI Houston Apr Apr WTI +1.70 +1.80 +1.77 +1.93 78.36 78.46 78.43
WTI Houston May May WTI +1.80 +2.00 +1.90 +1.95 78.61 78.81 78.71
WTI Midland Apr Apr WTI +1.50 +1.60 +1.59 +1.73 78.16 78.26 78.25
WTI Midland May May WTI +1.55 +1.75 +1.65 +1.68 78.36 78.56 78.46
WTI Midland Enterprise Apr Apr WTI +1.50 +1.60 +1.59 +1.73 78.16 78.26 78.25
WTI diff to CMA Nymex Apr CMA -0.07 -0.05 -0.06 -0.04
WTI postings-plus Apr Postings +3.31 +3.33 +3.32 +3.34
Midcontinent $/bl
Diff Diff MTD
Weighted Cumulative
Timing Basis Diff low Diff high weighted weighted Low High
average MTD VWA
average average
Bakken DAPL Apr CMA Nymex +1.55 +1.60 +1.59 +1.96 78.37 78.42 78.41 +1.83
Bakken Patoka Apr CMA Nymex +1.85 +1.90 +1.85 +2.21 78.67 78.72 78.67 +2.09
Bakken Clearbrook Apr CMA Nymex +3.10 +3.15
Bakken Cushing Apr Apr WTI +1.10 +1.15 +1.11 +1.13 77.76 77.81 77.77
Light Sweet Guernsey Apr CMA Nymex +0.60 +0.70 +0.65 +0.93 77.42 77.52 77.47 +0.79
DJ Light Apr Apr WTI +0.10 +0.20 +0.15 +0.34 76.76 76.86 76.81
White Cliffs Apr Apr WTI +0.10 +0.20 +0.15 +0.34 76.76 76.86 76.81
Niobrara Apr Apr WTI +0.80 +1.20 +1.15 +1.12 77.46 77.86 77.81
WCS Cushing Apr CMA Nymex -10.15 -9.90 -10.11 -9.24 66.67 66.92 66.71
Canadian High TAN
Apr CMA Nymex -10.75 -10.35 -10.75 -9.83 66.07 66.47 66.07
Cushing
Texas $/bl
Diff Diff MTD
Weighted
average
average average
WTL Midland Apr Apr WTI +1.00 +1.10 +1.09 +1.15 77.66 77.76 77.75
Bakken Beaumont/ CMA Nymex + Argus
Apr +1.90 +2.00 +1.95 +2.25 78.66 78.76 78.71
Nederland WTI diff to CMA
WTS Apr Apr WTI -0.25 +0.10 -0.08 -0.31 76.41 76.76 76.58
WTS May May WTI -0.20 -0.10 -0.15 -0.37 76.61 76.71 76.66
Southern Green Canyon Apr Apr WTI -0.80 -0.70 -0.75 -2.01 75.86 75.96 75.91
WCS Houston Apr CMA Nymex -9.00 -8.50 -8.63 -8.09 67.82 68.32 68.19
Canadian High TAN
Apr CMA Nymex -9.65 -9.40 -9.53 -8.96 67.17 67.42 67.29
Houston
Louisiana $/bl
Diff Diff MTD
Weighted
average
average average
LLS Apr Apr WTI +2.60 +2.80 +2.70 +2.84 79.26 79.46 79.36
LLS May May WTI +2.65 +2.70 +2.68 +2.75 79.46 79.51 79.49
HLS Apr Apr WTI +2.45 +2.55 +2.50 +2.63 79.11 79.21 79.16
Thunder Horse Apr Apr WTI +2.45 +2.75 +2.65 +2.50 79.11 79.41 79.31
Poseidon Apr Apr WTI -1.65 -1.55 -1.60 -1.94 75.01 75.11 75.06
Mars Apr Apr WTI -0.70 -0.35 -0.54 -0.76 75.96 76.31 76.12
Mars May May WTI -1.20 -0.95 -1.08 -1.26 75.61 75.86 75.73

Argus AGS
Midland-quality WTI at the US Gulf reversed an eight-day Argus AGS $/bl

downward streak against the traditional light sweet crude Timing Low/high VWA VWA MTD
benchmark at Cushing, Oklahoma, as futures prices declined.

Argus AGS Marker Apr 78.29/78.39 78.36 79.73
The AGS Marker fell by 93¢/bl to a volume-weighted
Argus AGS Apr 78.29/78.39 78.36
average of $78.36/bl, while the AGS index differential to
Nymex rose by 19¢/bl to a $1.70/bl premium. The index had Timing Basis Diff low/high VWA VWA MTD
fallen by 20¢/bl in the previous session to its lowest value Argus AGS Apr Apr WTI +1.63/+1.73 +1.70 +1.86
against the Cushing basis since 13 January.
Liquidity this session was based at the Magellan East
AGS locational differentials vs Echo $/bl
Houston (MEH) terminal, where 17 deals totaling 50,000
b/d were transacted at premiums to the Nymex light sweet
crude futures contract between $1.70/bl and $1.80/bl.
MEH +0.07
Reported AGS spot trade volume has totaled 329,033 b/d Moore +0.14
Road Beaumont/ +0.45
since the 27 February start to the April US trade month, Valero Nederland
Junction +0.15 EHSC +0.42
down by 2.8pc compared to the same period of March trade.
Meanwhile, UK-based bank Barclays cut its global crude Speed
Junction +0.15
forecasts for 2023 amid greater-than-expected resilience in ECHO
Russian crude production. The WTI forecast was decreased

Genoa
by $7/bl to $87/bl for 2023 as analysts cited a global supply Junction +0.15
surplus of around 800,000 b/d. Seabrook +0.42
The AGS Marker has averaged just $79.53/bl year-to-date. Texas City +0.42
ECHO
Corpus +0.44
Christi
AGS Marker $/bl AGS index diff to Nymex WTI $/bl

100 3.0
95 2.5
2.0
90
1.5
85
hh hh
1.0
80
0.5
75 0.0
70 -0.5
28 Oct 22 12 Dec 22 25 Jan 23 8 Mar 23 28 Oct 22 12 Dec 22 25 Jan 23 8 Mar 23

US waterborne
Freight snapshot (full view in Argus Tanker Freight) $/t US Gulf coast waterborne $/bl
Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High
WTI fob USGC Prompt Apr CMA Nymex +1.97/+2.37 78.79-79.19

USGC-east coast Canada Prompt Apr WTI Houston +0.36/+0.76
70,000t 46.54 USGC-Europe Prompt Jun Ice -3.40/-3.00
70,000t 63.18 Bakken fob
Beaumont/ Prompt Apr CMA Nymex +2.17/+2.52 78.99-79.34
Nederland
Prompt Apr WTI Houston +0.56/+0.91
USGC-China
Prompt Jun Ice -3.20/-2.85
270,000t 39.41
130,000t 57.31
WTI intramonth spreads $/bl
USGC/Carib-Singapore Load window Diff
Timing Basis Diff low/high
130,000t 53.46 (dates) midpoint
1-10 M1 Apr Apr WTI Houston +0.40/+0.75 +0.58

Freight rates are five-day rolling averages. Apr Jun Ice -3.36/-3.01 -3.19
The full range of tanker freight rates, including Crude-specific USD/bl freight
is available in Argus Tanker Freight. 11-20 M1 Apr Apr WTI Houston +0.40/+0.60 +0.50
Apr Jun Ice -3.36/-3.16 -3.26
Freight rate $ lumpsum 21-30 M1 Apr Apr WTI Houston +0.40/+0.60 +0.50
Five-day rolling average Apr Jun Ice -3.36/-3.16 -3.26
USGC Aframax reverse lightering 756,000
Workspaces:
The price of waterborne WTI weakened against June Ice
Below Workspaces combine content from Argus Crude and Argus
Brent as Nymex light sweet crude weakened against the Tanker Freight and may require additional subscriptions full functional-
ity. Please contact support@argusmedia.com for access support.
international benchmark.
WTI loading 15-45 days forward out of the US Gulf coast • Crude Imports + Freight – China
• Crude + Freight - Atlantic Basin
declined by 15¢/bl against June Ice Brent to discounts be- • Crude Exports + Freight – US
tween $3.40/bl and $3/bl, circling a roughly 55¢/bl premium • Crude Imports + Freight - India
to the secondary pipeline benchmark WTI Houston, or just These Workspaces are curated by the Freight editorial team.
For general information about Workspaces and Markets,
shy of the previous session’s midpoint. please visit this link.
Offers ranged from 45¢-60¢/bl above WTI Houston for
April-loading cargoes, or roughly $3.15-3.30/bl under June
Ice Brent, but values were pegged as high as a $3/bl dis- Nymex light sweet crude lost ground against June Ice
count to June Ice Brent, setting the high end of the WTI fob Brent, falling by 31¢/bl to a discount of $5.53/bl this session,
range. after US Federal Chairman, Jerome Powell said on Tuesday
Anticipated US crude export cargoes — 15-45 days forward

Approximate
Tanker name volume '000 Estimated grade Load window Load port Chartered destination ETA
bl
N. Terra Mater 2,100 WTI and/or Mars 27 Mar tbd Asia-Pacific tbd
Sea Amethyst 1,000 WTI and/or Mars 24 Mar tbd Brazil tbd
Advantage Verdict 2,100 WTI and/or Mars 26 Mar Galveston lightering Ningbo, China tbd
Degas 2,100 WTI 27 Mar Corpus Christi, Texas China tbd
Ilma 2,100 WTI 29-31 Mar tbd China 17 May
Blue Nova 2,100 WTI 25 Mar tbd Europe tbd
Pertamina Prime 2,100 WTI 29 Mar Corpus Christi, Texas Singapore 12 May
Cyan Nova 2,100 WTI 1 Apr Galveston lightering Europe tbd
Lawhah 2,100 WTI and/or Mars 2 Apr tbd Ningbo, China tbd
Nave Spherical 2,100 WTI 3 Apr tbd Europe tbd
Athenian Glory 2,100 WTI and/or Mars 4 Apr tbd China tbd
Sea Jade 2,100 WTI and/or Mars 5 Apr Galveston lightering China tbd
Das 2,100 WTI and/or Mars 8 Apr tbd South Korea tbd
Landbridge F. 2,100 WTI 8 Apr tbd Europe tbd
Advantage Victory 2,100 WTI and/or Mars 10 Apr tbd Asia-Pacific tbd

US waterborne
that interest rates would likely be higher than previously ex- US west coast pipeline, 7 Mar $/bl
pected. WTI Houston rose by 19¢/bl to a volume-weighted- Basis Diff to Ice Brent Outright
average to $1.77/bl this session. Light postings avg May -2.17 81.12
WTI delivered to the Netherlands port of Rotterdam in Heavy postings avg May -6.01 77.28
April was pegged at a roughly $2/bl premium to Dated Brent
on a delivered basis this session, down by 50¢/bl compared US west coast waterborne $/bl
to previous assessments. Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High
That level would reflect a nearly $6.30/bl discount to
CMA
ANS del May +3.36/+3.46 80.17-80.27
June Ice Brent on an equivalent fob basis for cargoes travel- Nym
ing by way of Aframax as freight rates remain strong. Traders May CMA Ice -1.65/-1.55
could still opt to load larger size vessels instead to save on ANS del concurrent May May WTI +3.36/+3.46 80.17-80.27
transportation costs.
Delivered WTI values in Europe could be drawing pres- ANS del USWC monthly volume-weighted average $/bl
Basis Diff
sure from stronger flows to the region in recent months,
while France experiences a fresh round of strikes. Feb Ice CMA -2.23
All movements in and out of French refineries remained Mar Ice CMA -3.10
Apr MTD Ice CMA -2.80
halted, as workers continued a planned three-day bout of
May MTD Ice CMA -1.63
industrial action over proposed government changes to pen-
sion rights.
TotalEnergies said all loadings and deliveries were
stopped at its three domestic refineries, the 219,000 b/d ary and March delivering ESPO cargoes. Sinopec has bought
Donges, 109,3000 b/d Feyzin and 246,900 b/d Gonfreville at least four April delivering ESPO cargoes this month.
refineries. Workers say strikes are continuing at ExxonMobil's Separately, Alaskan North Slope (ANS) crude traded
133,000 b/d Fos and 236,000 b/d Port Jerome plants, and at twice this session at a discount of $1.60/bl to CMA Ice Brent
the Gravenchon petrochemical unit. There is also action at for May delivery to the US west coast, or steady to the level
UK-Chinese refiner Petroineos' 207,100 b/d Lavera refinery. at which three cargoes had been reported trading in the
Strikes are also being held by dockers and shore staff at the previous session.
Mediterranean port of Fos-Lavera, halting all crude discharge ANS for April delivery to the US west coast had been re-
and products loading. Some tankers are waiting at the port ported trading at discounts to CMA Ice Brent between $3.25/
to unload. bl and $2.85/bl.
Offers were due this session for a tender issued by Indo-
nesia’s Pertamina to buy crude for May delivery.
WTI, West Texas Light (WTL), White Cliffs and 45°API Assessment rationale
Eagle Ford condensate were listed as eligible grades to offer The ANS minimum volume was met and assessment calcu-
in cargoes of up to 600,000 bl for 22-31 May delivery to the lated according to methodology.
Cilicap terminal.
Heavy Louisiana Sweet (HLS) was eligible for 10-14 May
delivery to Balikpapan, as well as WTI co-loaded with Guya-
nese Liza crude.
Offers were also due for a tender by Indian state-con-
trolled refiner Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) seeking 2mn bl
cargoes for 1-10 May delivery to its Vizag refinery.
Midland-quality WTI will compete largely with west Afri-
can crudes and some North Sea production.
Interest in US crude from Chinese buyers quieted this
week. China state-controlled Sinopec is focusing on purchas-
ing light sweet ESPO blend crude from Russia’s far east coast
after the company temporarily held off on purchasing Febru-

Latin America
Ecuadorean state-owned PetroEcuador has reissued two can- South America $/bl
celed tenders to sell Napo and Oriente crude after this week Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High
lifting a force majeure on exports. Colombia

The company is offering to sell six cargoes of heavy sour Vasconia Prompt Jun WTI -1.06/-0.66 75.79-76.19
Napo crude totaling 2.16mn bl for April loading from the OCP Jun Ice -6.40/-6.00
terminal in Esmeraldas, Ecuador, and five cargoes of medium Castilla Prompt Jun WTI -9.36/-8.36 67.49-68.49
Jun Ice -14.70/-13.70
sour Oriente totaling 1.8mn bl for loading the same month
Argentina
from the Balao terminal.
Escalante Prompt Jun WTI -0.51/+0.49 76.34-77.34
The Napo cargoes can be loaded in 360,000 bl cargoes
Jun Ice -5.85/-4.85
via Panamax, or in 720,000 bl cargoes via Aframax. Prelimi-
Medanito Prompt Jun WTI -1.16/-0.16 75.69-76.69
nary load windows are 20-21 April, 22-23 April, 26-27 April, Jun Ice -6.50/-5.50
28-29 April and 30 April to 1 May. Ecuador
In the Oriente tender, participating companies have the Oriente Prompt Jun WTI -8.20/-7.70 68.65-69.15
same options regarding cargo sizes, or they may choose to Jun Ice -13.54/-13.04
take cargoes between 1mn bl to 1.08mn bl via Suezmax. If Napo Prompt Jun WTI -15.70/-14.70 61.15-62.15
the buyer chooses to take the full volume offered in com- Jun Ice -21.04/-20.04
binations of Panamax, Aframax and Suezmax cargoes, they
Mexico $/bl
may load at either the Balao or OCP terminal at a premium
Timing Basis Diff Price
to the original bid for 360,000 bl cargoes only.
Maya
Preliminary load windows for the Oriente cargoes are 22-
Excluding USWC Mar Apr Nymex -13.21 63.45
24 April, 24-26 April, 26-28 April, 27-29 April and 28-30 April.
USWC Mar Apr Nymex -7.31 69.35
Bids are due 21 March on an fob basis relative to Nymex
Europe Mar May Dated Brent -15.23 67.01
light sweet WTI and will remain valid through 23 March.
India Mar May Dated Brent -16.28 65.96
The previous tenders had offered 1.44mn bl each of Ori- Asia-Pacific Mar May Dubai -9.16 72.90
ente and Napo for loading in late March but were canceled Isthmus
after a landslide in the Napo province led to the preventa- Excluding USWC Mar Apr Nymex -6.96 69.70
tive halt of pumping on two major pipelines and postponed USWC Mar Apr Nymex -8.91 67.75
roughly 4mn bl of crude exports. Europe Mar May Dated Brent -12.88 69.36
The 360,000 b/d Sote pipeline — operated by PetroEc- India Mar May Dated Brent -18.33 63.91
uador — and the 450,000 b/d OCP pipeline — operated by Asia-Pacific Mar May Dubai -6.71 75.35
a consortium of private producers — stopped on 22 Febru- Olmeca
ary. Sote restarted operations on 28 February and OCP on Americas Mar Apr Nymex -5.71 70.95
Europe Mar May Dated Brent -7.48 74.76
2 March after the companies built a temporary suspension
India Mar May Dated Brent -13.43 68.81
system.
PetroEcuador lifted the force majeure earlier this week. Mexico K-factors $/bl
Oriente was last assessed at a $7.90/bl discount to May Timing K-factor
Nymex WTI, while Oriente was assessed at a $15.15/bl dis- Maya USGC Mar -16.45
count. Maya USWC Mar -10.55
The grades softened by 5¢/bl each this session as the Maya Europe Mar -15.65
prompt pricing basis was rolled to June WTI ahead of the Maya India Mar -16.70
Maya Asia Mar -9.15
tender. The spread between May and June Nymex contracts
Isthmus USGC Mar -10.20
stood at just 4¢/bl.
Isthmus USWC Mar -12.15
Meanwhile, Uruguayan state-owned Ancap was heard Isthmus Europe Mar -13.30
buying a cargo of Qua Iboe in its recent tender, though Isthmus India Mar -18.75
results could not be immediately confirmed. Isthmus Asia Mar -6.70
Olmeca USGC Mar -8.95
Olmeca Europe Mar -7.90
Olmeca India Mar -13.85

Canada
Canada domestic $/bl

Diff Diff MTD
Weighted
average
average average
Syncrude (SSP) Apr CMA Nym +5.35 +5.85 +5.60 +3.81 82.17 82.67 82.42
WCS Apr CMA Nym -15.35 -14.85 -15.10 -16.87 61.47 61.97 61.72
WCS Cushing Apr CMA Nym -10.15 -9.90 -10.11 -9.24 66.67 66.92 66.71
Canada domestic $/bl Canada waterborne prices $/bl

Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High
AWB Apr CMA Nym -17.75/-17.25 59.07-59.57 Hibernia Dated North Sea +1.65/+1.85 83.89-84.09
CDB Apr CMA Nym -16.50/-16.00 60.32-60.82
Cold Lake Apr CMA Nym -15.60/-15.10 61.22-61.72

Canadian Synthetic vs LLS month 2 $/bl
Condensate Apr CMA Nym +3.85/+4.35 80.67-81.17 5

4 LLS month 2 = 0
MSW Apr CMA Nym -2.90/-1.45 73.92-75.37
LSB Apr CMA Nym -3.95/-3.45 72.87-73.37

3
LLB Apr CMA Nym -15.10/-13.20 61.72-63.62

2
1
0
The operating pressure of TC Energy’s Keystone pipeline
hh
was capped by a regulator and US Canadian crude imports -1
increased with just over a week remaining in the April trade -2

window. -3
Production of Access Western Blend (AWB) crude in Al- -4
berta declined to a four-month low in January, according to 1 Sep 22 2 Nov 22 6 Jan 23 8 Mar 23
data from the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER).
Total bitumen production from Canadian Natural Re-
sources' (CNRL) Jackfish project and MEG Energy's Christina
Lake project fell to 220,000 b/d in January, down from according to data from the US Energy Information Adminis-
227,000 b/d in the month prior. This compares to bitumen tration (EIA). In the same week a year prior, imports aver-
output of 216,000 b/d in January 2022. aged 3.73mn b/d.
The 622,000 b/d Keystone oil pipeline, which ruptured The four-week average of US Canadian crude imports is
and spilled crude in Kansas late last year, will have its oper- now 3.54mn b/d.
ating pressure capped at 72pc of its Specified Minimum Yield US imports from Mexico fell to 556,000 b/d on the week,
Strength (SMYS) because of regulator concerns over future down from 725,000 b/d in the week previous.
accidents. Saudi Arabia provided 476,000 b/d to the US on the
The US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Adminis- week, down from 310,000 b/d in the prior week.
tration (PHMSA) issued an amended corrective action order
yesterday to Keystone operator TC Energy limiting the op-
erating pressure even after the company completes require- Assessment rationale
ments laid out by the regulator. The minimum volume was met and volume-weighted average
US imports of Canadian crude increased by 5pc to calculated according to the methodology for WCS Cushing
3.78mn b/d on the week ended 3 March, a four-week high, and WCS Houston.

North Sea Dated
North Sea Dated calculation $/bl North Sea flat price

Argus derives a flat price from trade of a month-ahead
North Sea flat price
forward contract for the delivery of Brent, Forties, Oseberg,
Delivery Volume
North Sea partial trade Price Ekofisk or Troll, taking a weighted average of trade between
period bl
volume weighted average
May 300,000 82.83
4:29pm and 4:30pm in London. In the absence of trade, a
(VWA)
combination of the Ice Brent futures one-minute marker and
CFD value against relevant basis month
the exchange of futures for physical (EFP) market is used.
Basis Midpoint
13 Mar-17 Mar May -0.75 Anticipated Dated
20 Mar-24 Mar May -0.75 We then look at contracts for difference (CFDs), with which
27 Mar-31 Mar May -0.73 the market anticipates North Sea Dated in the coming weeks
3 Apr-7 Apr May -0.72 at differentials to the forward month. Prices falling between
10 Apr-14 Apr May -0.75 10 days and a full calendar month ahead are averaged.
17 Apr-21 Apr May -0.80
Physical differentials
CFD value for 18 Mar-8 Apr May -0.74
Argus assesses trade in physical cargoes of Brent, Forties,
North Sea Anticipated Dated calculation
Month Price
Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll crude, assigning differentials to North
VWA of North Sea partial trade May 82.83 Sea Dated to each grade for the 10-days to month-ahead range.
CFD value for 18 Mar-8 Apr May -0.74 Dated components
Anticipated Dated 82.09 The combination of the Anticipated Dated and the physical
Physical differentials for 18 Mar-8 Apr values gives each grade’s component of North Sea Dated for
Grade Basis Diff midpoint
each day of the assessment period. Quality premiums are
Brent Dated +1.05
deducted from Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll for benchmarking
Forties Dated +0.15
Oseberg Dated +3.40
purposes. The lowest-priced of the five components on each
Ekofisk Dated +2.20 day is used to set the price of North Sea Dated.
Troll Dated +3.70
Components of North Sea Dated $/bl
North Sea quality premiums (QP) for 18 Mar-8 Apr
Oseberg +2.70 83.20
Ekofisk +1.92
Troll +2.95 83.00
North Sea Dated calculation
82.80
Anticipated Add Diff Subtract
Price
Dated midpoint QP
82.60
Brent component of Dated 82.09 +1.05 83.14
Forties component of Dated 82.09 +0.15 82.24 82.40
Oseberg component of Dated 82.09 +3.40 +2.70 82.79
Ekofisk component of Dated 82.09 +2.20 +1.92 82.37 82.20
Troll component of Dated 82.09 +3.70 +2.95 82.84
82.00
North Sea Dated is the low-
82.24 Brent Forties Oseberg Ekofisk Troll
est component on each day
North Sea forward curve establishing Anticipated Dated $/bl Dated components-establishing North Sea Dated $/bl
83.40
83.00 83.20
82.80 83.00
82.60 82.80 Brent

CFD week Forties
MAY
82.40 JUNE 82.60 Ose. with QP hh
JULY Eko. with QP
82.20 82.40 Troll with QP
82.00 82.20
81.80 82.00
9 Mar 27 Apr 15 Jun 17 Mar 5 Apr

North Sea
Forties, Ekofisk and Troll all declined as sellers lowered North Sea $/bl
prices to attract buyers, while the price of WTI delivered at Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
Rotterdam was pressured by ample supplies and strikes at Dated* May -0.59 82.21 82.27 -1.79
French refineries. Dated (new)** May -0.59 82.21 82.27 -1.75
Glencore placed a cargo of Forties loading on 6-8 April Argus Brent Sour Dated -1.15 81.06 81.12 -1.48
at North Sea Dated +0.10 fob Hound Point with BP. The only Brent† Dated +1.05 83.26 83.32 -1.79
other bid for Forties came from Vitol. It was looking to buy Forties Dated +0.15 82.36 82.42 -2.18
a cargo loading on 3-8 April at Dated +0.10 fob Hound Point, Oseberg Dated +3.40 85.61 85.67 -1.79
but no sellers stepped in. Ekofisk Dated +2.20 84.41 84.47 -1.99
TotalEnergies offered an Ekofisk cargo loading on 2-4 Troll Dated +3.70 85.91 85.97 -2.09
April at Dated +2.20 fob Teesside, 20¢/bl lower than its deal Statfjord cif Rotterdam Dated +4.70 86.91 86.97 -1.79
with Glencore for a late-March cargo in the previous session. Statfjord fob platform Dated +3.15 85.36 85.42 -1.79
This time, Vitol stepped up to buy the cargo. Gullfaks cif Rotterdam Dated +5.80 88.01 88.07 -1.79
Finally, having placed one cargo of Forties, Glencore was Gullfaks fob platform Dated +4.25 86.46 86.52 -1.79
also looking to sell a cargo of Troll. The company offered a Flotta Gold Dated +0.60 82.81 82.87 -1.79
cargo loading on 1-3 April at Dated +3.75 fob Mongstad, a Grane Dated -0.10 82.11 82.17 -1.79
30¢/bl drop from its offer of the same cargo in the previous Johan Sverdrup Dated -1.00 81.21 81.27 -1.79
session. Despite the lower price, the offer failed to attract a *Argus North Sea Dated is the equivalent of Platts dated Brent
**New North Sea Dated incorporates non-North Sea grades delivered into north-
buyer. None of the window activity was confirmed. west Europe. A full explanation can be found on p6
†Argus Brent is the price of physical Brent calculated using Argus North Sea
Prices for US crude WTI delivered to Europe were as- Dated plus the Dated-related market differential for Brent
sessed lower by traders. Cargoes arriving in April were heard North Sea EFP
offered at around North Sea Dated +2.00 cif Rotterdam, and Basis Diff
were expected to change hands close to that levels. That May Ice +0.08
marked a nearly 50¢/bl decline from previous assessments. Jun Ice +0.06
Ice minute markers
1-minute ±
May 82.69 -1.44
Jun 82.22 -1.38
Jul 81.86 -1.33
Dated CFDs, Singapore close
Basis Bid Ask ±
13 Mar-17 Mar May -0.75 -0.67 -0.05
20 Mar-24 Mar May -0.78 -0.70 -0.01
27 Mar-31 Mar May -0.78 -0.70 +0.01
3 Apr-7 Apr May -0.78 -0.70 +0.06
North Sea Dated, WTI, Tapis $/bl
Dated CFDs, London close
North Sea Dated WTI Tapis 13 Mar-17 Mar May -0.79 -0.71 -0.04
120 20 Mar-24 Mar May -0.79 -0.71 -0.01
27 Mar-31 Mar May -0.77 -0.69 +0.01
110
3 Apr-7 Apr May -0.76 -0.68 +0.02
10 Apr-14 Apr May -0.79 -0.71 +0.01
100
17 Apr-21 Apr May -0.84 -0.76 +0.02
hh
Delivered northwest Europe assessments

90
Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
WTI cif Rotterdam (period 1)* Dated +1.95 84.16 84.22 -2.34
80
WTI cif Rotterdam (period 2)* Dated +1.95 84.16 84.22 -2.34
70 *Period 1 covers cargoes arriving at Rotterdam from 12 days forward to one

month ahead + two days. Period 2 covers cargoes arriving at Rotterdam from
31 Aug 22 1 Nov 22 4 Jan 23 8 Mar 23 one month ahead + three days forward to 60 days.

North Sea
The pressure on WTI might have come from elevated North Sea $/bl
volumes of the grade arriving to Europe, which are expected North Sea quality premiums (QP)
to hit a fresh high in March, according to one trader. Some Mar Apr
pressure could also come from a new round of strikes at
Ekofisk 1.89 1.99
the French refineries. All movements in and out of French
Oseberg 2.69 2.73
refineries remained halted, as workers continued a planned
Troll 2.86 3.12
three-day bout of industrial action over proposed govern-
ment changes to pension rights. De-escalators
TotalEnergies said all loadings and deliveries were Sulphur 0.30
stopped at its three domestic refineries, the 219,000 b/d North Sea calculations
Donges, 109,3000 b/d Feyzin and 246,900 b/d Gonfreville Basis Price
refineries. Workers say strikes are continuing at ExxonMobil's Volume-weighted average of North Sea partial traded May 82.83
133,000 b/d Fos and 236,000 b/d Port Jerome plants, and at
Ice Brent marker May 82.69
the Gravenchon petrochemical unit. There is also action at
Exchange of futures for physical (EFP) Jun +0.06
UK-Chinese refiner Petroineos' 207,100 b/d Lavera refinery.
North Sea basis (flat price) May 82.83
Strikes are also being held by dockers and shore staff at the
Mediterranean port of Fos-Lavera, halting all crude discharge Anticipated Dated based on 10 days-month ahead CFD strip:
and products loading. Some tankers are waiting at the port Price ±
to unload. According to Vortexa, 13 cargoes of crude were 18 Mar-08 Apr 82.09 -1.48
currently en route to France, with TotalEnergies chartering Argus Brent component of Dated 83.14 -1.48
at least four of them. Argus Forties component of Dated 82.24 -1.87
Forward prices fell. The Argus May North Sea price was
Argus Oseberg component of Dated (QP applied) 82.79 -1.48
$82.83/bl, a drop of $1.48/bl from the previous session,
Argus Oseberg component of Dated (no QP applied) 85.49 -1.48
based on 300,000 bl of trade in the minute leading up to
Argus Ekofisk component of Dated (QP applied) 82.37 -1.68
the timestamp. CFDs also inched lower. Both the front-week
13-17 March CFD and the second-week 20-24 March CFD were Argus Ekofisk component of Dated (no QP applied) 84.29 -1.68
at May North Sea -75¢/bl, down by 4¢/bl and 1¢/bl, respec- Argus Troll component of Dated (QP applied) 82.84 -1.79
tively. *the lowest component on each day of the 10-day – month-ahead assessment
period sets Dated.
Argus alternative Dated illustration
Basis Diff Price ±
Argus Dated Average May +1.36 84.190 -1.660
Dated to Ice Brent frontline, London close
Bid Ask ±
Ekofisk vs naphtha 65 para NWE cif $/bl Mar -0.67 -0.59 -0.07
30 Apr -0.28 -0.20 -0.10

Naphtha 65 para NWE = 0 May -0.17 -0.09 -0.08
25
Jun +0.06 +0.14 -0.05
20 1Qc" +0.23 +0.31 -0.04
2Qc" +0.25 +0.33 -0.01

15
hh
2024 +0.21 +0.27 -0.03
10 Ice Bwave, 7 Mar 23
May 85.43
5 Jun 84.84
Jul 84.37
0
12 Sep 22 9 Nov 22 10 Jan 23 8 Mar 23 Saudi formula base 84.50

ARGUS BRENT SOUR
Argus Brent Sour calculation $/bl Components of Argus Brent Sour

83.50
Anticipated Dated 82.09
Argus Brent Sour calculation 83.00
Anticipated Add Diff
Components of Argus Brent Sour Price
Dated midpoint 82.50
Brent 82.09 +1.05 83.14 Brent
82.00 Forties
Forties 82.09 +0.15 82.24 Grane
Grane 82.09 -0.10 81.99 Flotta Gold
81.50
Flotta Gold 82.09 +0.60 82.69 JS
Johan Sverdrup fob Mongstad 82.09 -1.00 81.09 81.00

Argus Brent Sour is the lowest component on each day of
81.09
the assessment period
80.50
17 Mar 5 Apr
Alternative North Sea Dated illustrations
New North Sea Dated calculation $/bl Components establishing New North Sea Dated
83.40
Anticipated Dated 82.09
Freight adjustment
83.20
10-day average UK-UK continent rate 22 Feb-7 Mar 1.65
10-day average UK-UK continent rate 23 Feb-8 Mar 1.68
83.00
North Sea quality adjustments (QA) for 18 Mar-8 Apr
Oseberg +2.76 Brent
82.80 Forties
Ekofisk +1.98
Troll +3.01 Ose. with QP
82.60 hh
New North Sea Dated calculation
Eko. with QP
Troll with QP
Subtract 82.40
Components of New North Anticipated Add Diff
QA and Price
WTI
Sea Dated Dated midpoint
freight
82.20
Brent 82.09 +1.05 83.14
Forties 82.09 +0.15 82.24
82.00
Oseberg 82.09 +3.40 +2.76 82.73
17 Mar 5 Apr
Ekofisk 82.09 +2.20 +1.98 82.31
Troll 82.09 +3.70 +3.01 82.78
WTI 82.09 +1.95 +1.65 82.39
North Sea Dated is the lowest component on each day of the
82.24
assessment period
North Sea Dated + JS calculation $/bl Dated illustrations vs North Sea Dated
Anticipated Dated 82.09 New North Sea Dated North Sea Dated + JS
2.00
North Sea quality adjustments (QA) for 18 Mar-8 Apr 1.50
Oseberg +2.70 1.00
Ekofisk +1.92 0.50
0.00
Troll +2.95 -0.50
Johan Sverdrup fob Mongstad -1.16 -1.00
-1.50
North Sea Dated + JS calculation -2.00
Components of North Sea Anticipated Add Diff Subtract -2.50
Dated + JS Dated midpoint QA
Price -3.00
-3.50
Brent 82.09 +1.05 83.14 -4.00
Forties 82.09 +0.15 82.24
-4.50
-5.00
Oseberg 82.09 +3.40 +2.70 82.79
15 Sep 28 Oct 9 Dec 25 Jan 8 Mar
Ekofisk 82.09 +2.20 +1.92 82.37
Troll 82.09 +3.70 +2.95 82.84
Johan Sverdrup fob Mongstad 82.09 -1.00 -1.16 82.25
North Sea Dated is the lowest component on each day of the
81.79
assessment period

Russia-Caspian
Prices for Azeri BTC Blend was discussed in a wide range, Russia-Caspian $/bl
while Caspian CPC Blend differentials moved higher. Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
Azerbaijan's state-run Socar was said to have offloaded fob Russia

a 650,000 bl shipment of BTC Blend loading on 28 March-1 Urals fob Primorsk Dated -35.50 46.71 46.77 -1.79
April to Italian refiner Eni at Dated +2.65 cif Augusta in the Urals fob Ust-Luga Dated -35.50 46.71 46.77 -1.79
afternoon trading window. But seperate from that deal, Urals Aframax fob Novo Dated -37.25 44.96 45.02 -1.79
some market sources flagged cargoes changign hands at Urals Suezmax fob Novo Dated -37.45 44.76 44.82 -1.79
higher levels. Siberian Light fob Novo Dated -27.00 55.21 55.27 -1.79
Traders said Greek refiner Helleniq Energy — previously Urals dap West Coast India Dated -17.00 65.21 65.27 -1.79
known as Hellenic Petroleum — bought a cargo each of Delivered
Libyan Es Sider and Azeri BTC Blend in its tender closed in Kebco cif Augusta Dated +0.40 82.61 82.67 -1.79
the latest session. Some traders reckoned that BTC Blend CPC Blend cif Augusta Dated -3.35 78.86 78.92 -1.39
was said to have changed hands at around Dated +4.00 cif BTC Blend cif Augusta Dated +3.00 85.21 85.27 -2.39
Augusta, but others reckoned the crude was likely at trading Azeri Light cif Augusta Dated +2.80 85.01 85.07 -2.39
at values closer to Dated +3.50 on the same basis. Results Netforwards
were not confirmed. Helleniq Energy had initially sought Urals NWE cif Rotterdam Dated -32.25 49.96 50.02 -1.94
600,000 bl or 1mn bl of Es Sider for 7-9 April arrival at Pachi Urals Med Aframax cif Augusta Dated -31.73 50.48 50.54 -1.80
Megara.
Urals Med Suezmax cif Augusta Dated -34.64 47.57 47.63 -1.80
Siberian Light cif Augusta Dated -26.48 55.73 55.79 -1.79
Urals fob Novo vs fuel oil 3.5pc NWE $/bl Netbacks
15 Urals cif Black Sea Dated -35.19 47.02 47.08 -1.79
Fuel oil 3.5pc NWE = 0 CPC fob terminal Dated -7.32 74.89 74.95 -1.36
10
BTC fob Ceyhan Dated +0.77 82.98 83.04 -2.33
5
Azeri Light fob Supsa Dated -1.25 80.96 81.02 -2.39
0 Retrospective netbacks
-5 Urals fob Primorsk Dated -38.30 43.91 43.97 -1.73

hh
Urals fob Ust-Luga Dated -38.30 43.91 43.97 -1.73

-10
Urals fob Novo (Aframax) Dated -36.54 45.67 45.73 -1.76
-15 CPC Blend fob Dated -8.06 74.15 74.21 -1.76
-20 Turkish straits demurrage
Delay days 9.00
-25
12 Sep 22 9 Nov 22 10 Jan 23 8 Mar 23 Aframax demurrage rate $/d 55,000
Suezmax demurrage rate $/d 65,000
Bonny Light vs Azeri Light $/bl CPC Blend vs Saharan Blend $/bl
1 0.0
Azeri Light = 0 -1.0 Saharan Blend = 0
0
-2.0
-1 -3.0
-2 -4.0
-5.0
-3
hh hh -6.0
-4 -7.0
-5 -8.0
-9.0
-6 -10.0
-7 -11.0
12 Sep 22 9 Nov 22 10 Jan 23 8 Mar 23 12 Sep 22 9 Nov 22 10 Jan 23 8 Mar 23

Russia-Caspian
April exports of BTC Blend crude have been scheduled Druzhba pipeline — Urals (monthly prices) $/bl
at 614,000 b/d, up by 20pc from March. Azerbaijan’s state- Basis Diff low Diff high Low High
owned Socar is due to load 472,000 b/d next month, 21pc

Slovakia
higher than this month. BP’s BTC Blend exports are sched-
uled to fall by 5pc to 60,000 b/d over the same period, Feb Monthly avg of Dated -35.99 -35.92 46.51 46.58
while Turkey’s TPAO’s loadings are due to decline by 66pc Jan Monthly avg of Dated -36.61 -36.55 46.25 46.31
to 21,000 b/d. Finally, Hungary’s Mol loadings are due to Dec Monthly avg of Dated -33.66 -33.16 46.70 47.20
decline by 5pc to 20,000 b/d.
Hungary
The month on month drop will be capped by the return
Feb Monthly avg of Dated -40.50 -35.92 42.00 46.58
of Exxon and Norway’s Equinor to the loading schedule. They
are due to export 20,000 b/d and 22,000 b/d in April, having Jan Monthly avg of Dated -41.00 -36.55 41.86 46.31
been absent from the March programme. Dec Monthly avg of Dated -33.66 -33.16 46.70 47.20
Elsewhere on Caspian grades,Helleniq Energy also picked
Poland
up a cargo of CPC Blend from Shell at around North Sea
Jan Monthly avg of Dated -38.23 -37.73 44.63 45.13
Dated -3.35/-3.15 cif Augusta in its tender which closed on 7
March, according to traders. The result was not confirmed. Dec Monthly avg of Dated -33.69 -33.19 46.67 47.17
Seperate from the latest reported liquidity, some market Nov Monthly avg of Dated -26.89 -26.39 64.21 64.71
participants also pegged CPC Blend slightly higher, at levels
Germany
around Dated -3.50 on a cif Augusta basis.
Dec Monthly avg of Dated -33.24 -33.09 47.12 47.27
Nov Monthly avg of Dated -27.00 -26.29 64.10 64.81
Oct Monthly avg of Dated -25.00 -20.43 68.11 72.68
North Sea Dated month average $/bl
Feb 82.501
Jan 82.863
Dec 80.359
Urals fob Novo vs Azeri Light $/bl Urals fob Novo vs Mars $/bl
-25 -10
Mars = 0
-30 -15
-35 -20
hh hh
-40 -25
Azeri Light = 0
-45 -30
-50 -35

Mediterranean
Iraq's state-owned Somo increased the official April formula Mediterranean $/bl
prices for the majority of its exports to Europe. Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
Somo raised the April prices of its Europe-bound exports Saharan Blend Dated +2.45 84.66 84.72 -1.79
of Basrah Medium and Basrah Heavy by $1.25/bl and $1.75/ Zarzaitine Dated +2.35 84.56 84.62 -1.79
bl, respectively, but it has left the formula price of Kirkuk Es Sider Dated -0.05 82.16 82.22 -1.34
blend to Europe unchanged at a $1.45/bl discount to the Kirkuk Dated -6.70 75.51 75.57 -1.79
Basrah Medium fob (Med) Dated +1.55 78.06 78.12 -0.54
North Sea Dated benchmark. Somo combines northwest Eu-
Basrah Heavy fob (Med) Dated +2.05 74.76 74.82 -0.04
rope and the Mediterranean into one marketing area, while
Iranian Light fob Sidi Kerir Dated -1.92 80.29 80.35 -0.54
rival Mideast Gulf producers issue separate prices for those Iranian Heavy fob Sidi Kerir Dated -4.72 77.49 77.55 -0.54
regions. Suez Blend Dated -2.05 80.16 80.22 -0.54
The Iraqi firm’s month-on-month adjustments are broadly
in line with the changes implemented by Saudi state-con-
trolled Aramco. For northwest European customers, Aramco Official formula prices $/bl
raised the April price of Arab Medium and Arab Heavy by Basis
$1.30/bl each compared to March. For Mediterranean-bound Algeria Jan Feb Mar
exports, it implemented a $1.00/bl and $1.30/bl month-on- Saharan Blend Dated 0.9 1.55 2
month increase for Arab Medium and Arab Heavy, respec- Syria Aug Sep Oct
tively, on both fob Sidi Kerir and fob Ras Tanura sale terms. Syrian Light Dated na na na
Somo also issued a tender to sell 600,000 bl of Kirkuk Souedie Dated na na na
blend loading on 3-5 April, according to a document seen Libya Jan Feb Mar
by Argus. The cargo is resellable but the destination is Al-Jurf Dated -5 na -4
listed as Europe. The firm is requesting bids be submitted Amna Dated -0.6 0 0
at a premium to the grade's official April formula price for Bouri Dated -6.5 na -5.5
Europe-bound exports. Offers will be accepted until midday Brega Dated -1.45 -0.85 -0.85
Baghdad time on 9 March. Bu Atiffel Dated -1.85 -1.05 -0.55
The Iraqi firm last circulated a sell tender for Kirkuk Es Sider Dated -1.85 -1.05 -0.9
blend in late January for a February-loading shipment. Somo Esharara Dated -0.65 -0.05 0.2
awarded the cargo at a small premium to the grade's official Mellitah Dated -1.8 -1.2 -1
February formula price for Europe to Greek refiner Motor Oil Mesla Dated -2.05 -1.25 -1.15
Hellas. The tender result was not confirmed. Mesla ex Ras Lanuf Dated na na na
The majority of Iraq's Kirkuk blend exports are mar- Sarir Dated -3.9 -3.1 -3
keted by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Around Sirtica Dated -1.3 -0.7 -0.65
452,000 b/d of Kirkuk blend was loaded in 2022, of which Zueitina Dated -1.4 -0.8 -0.6
381,000 b/d was handled by the KRG and 71,000 b/d by

Somo, according to Argus tracking data. Somo's share is typi-
cally piped to Turkish refiner Tupras' 113,400 b/d Kirikkale Kirkuk vs Urals fob Novo $/bl
refinery. 35.0
On sweets, traders said Greek refiner Helleniq En-
ergy — previously known as Hellenic Petroleum — bought Urals Med = 0
30.0
a cargo each of Libyan Es Sider and Azeri BTC Blend in its
tender closed in the latest session. Es Sider was said to have
changed hands at equivalent to roughly Dated -0.05 fob Lib- 25.0
ya. Some traders reckoned the cargo was an Aframax, while hh
others said it was a Suezmax. Results were not confirmed.

Helleniq Energy had initially sought 600,000 bl or 1mn bl of 20.0
Es Sider for 7-9 April arrival at Pachi Megara.
15.0
9 Dec 22 11 Jan 23 8 Feb 23 8 Mar 23

West Africa
West Africa $/bl
India’s state-owned refiner IOC issued a tender to buy April-
loading crude, listing a number of west African crudes as
Agbami Dated -2.30 79.91 79.97 -1.79
acceptable grades. Amenam Dated -1.60 80.61 80.67 -1.79
IOC was seeking 1mn bl cargoes of a range of west Afri- Bonga Dated +2.70 84.91 84.97 -1.79
can crude grades loading on 14-23 April on a fob basis. The Bonny Light Dated +1.60 83.81 83.87 -1.79
Brass River Dated +0.15 82.36 82.42 -1.79
tender closes on 10 March with offers valid until 6pm Indian CJ Blend Dated +2.55 84.76 84.82 -1.79
Standard Time. EA Blend Dated +2.65 84.86 84.92 -1.79
Meanwhile, India's state-run HPCL closed a tender, seek- Egina Dated +3.05 85.26 85.32 -1.79
Erha Dated +2.25 84.46 84.52 -1.79
ing 500,000 bl, 1mn bl as well as 2mn bl cargoes delivered Escravos Dated +2.45 84.66 84.72 -1.79
to its Visakhapatnam terminal on 1-10 May. Results were Forcados Dated +2.35 84.56 84.62 -1.79
expected later this week. Qua Iboe Dated +1.70 83.91 83.97 -1.79
Usan Dated -3.20 79.01 79.07 -1.79
A number of deals emerged involving west African Cabinda Dated +1.60 83.81 83.87 -1.49
grades. One trader said that BP had sold a cargo of Nigeria’s Dalia Dated -0.50 81.71 81.77 -1.49
Girassol Dated +2.40 84.61 84.67 -1.19
flagship Qua Iboe to Uruguay’s state-run Ancap, while Italian
Hungo Dated -1.60 80.61 80.67 -1.49
firm Eni sold a combination of Angolan Nemba and Saxi to Kissanje Dated +1.00 83.21 83.27 -1.49
China’s Unipec. US-based Chevron was said to have sold a Mostarda Dated -2.30 79.91 79.97 -1.49
Nemba Dated -0.90 81.31 81.37 -1.49
cargo of Nemba to Unipec, and London-listed Tullow Oil was
Zafiro Dated +1.00 83.21 83.27 -1.79
heard to have sold a cargo of Ghana’s Jubilee to US refiner Jubilee Dated +0.40 82.61 82.67 -1.79
Philipps 66. The level of the deals, which were not con- Doba Dated -1.00 81.21 81.27 -1.79
Djeno Dated -3.90 78.31 78.37 -1.79
firmed, were kept under wraps.
Meanwhile, more details surfaced on the sale of an Nigerian official formula prices $/bl
Basis Jan Feb Mar
April-loading Girassol cargo by Angola's state-owned Sonan-
gol. Traders said the firm sold the medium sweet grade to Abo Dated -0.26 -0.26 +0.65
Agbami Dated -2.59 -2.88 -2.59
Philipps 66 at around North Sea Dated +2.50, although this Ajapa Dated +1.10 +1.50 +1.90
was unconfirmed. Aje Dated -0.50 +0.38 +1.15
Akpo Dated -3.19 -3.04 -2.69
Separately, traders assessed Girassol at Dated +2.40.
Amenam Dated -1.63 -2.20 -1.79
Angolan stream Cabinda and heavy sweet Dalia were also Antan Dated -2.00 -1.56 -1.20
discussed higher. The former was pegged at Dated +1.60, Asaramatoru Dated +1.09 +1.59 +1.59
Bonga Dated +1.18 +1.70 +2.23
while Dalia was assessed at Dated -0.50.
Bonny Light Dated -0.50 +0.38 +0.95
Trading firm Vitol again lowered its offer for a Dalia cargo Brass River Dated -1.15 -0.60 -0.21
in the afternoon window, without enticing a buyer. Vitol of- CJ Blend Dated +1.27 +2.01 +2.46
EA Dated +1.37 +2.11 +2.56
fered a 330,000 bl cargo of the grade arriving on 13-20 March
Ebok Dated -3.46 -6.22 -4.26
on the VLCC Ardeche, from Dated -2.50 cif Rotterdam down Egina Dated +1.90 +2.82 +2.95
to Dated -2.85. The offer, which was not confirmed, equated Eremor Dated -21.37 -23.66 -19.01
Erha Dated +1.00 +1.56 +1.87
to around Dated -4.00 on fob sales terms, but it was unlikely Escravos Dated +1.10 +1.45 +1.85
to reflect the market as a whole, owing to the prompt na- Forcados Dated +0.92 +1.25 +1.86
ture and the small size of the cargo. Ima Dated -3.34 -2.51 -1.41
Jones Creek Dated +0.97 +1.30 +1.86
Elsewhere, a rare cargo of Nigerian crude was en route Obe Dated -1.77 -1.18 -0.58
to Hawaii, according to Vortexa and shipping reports. The Okono Dated +1.66 +1.66 +2.12
Suezmax Aspen Spirit, chartered by Chevron, was expected Okoro Dated +6.84 +4.13 +4.55
Okwori Dated +3.27 +3.62 +2.95
to arrive on 3 April with 1mn bl of Nigerian Amenam, having Okwuibome formula Dated +0.55 +0.95 +1.27
departed on 24 February. It would be the first cargo of west Otakikpo Dated -0.50 +0.38 +1.15
African crude to reach Hawaii since December 2021. Oyo Dated +4.86 +5.19 +4.37
Pennington Dated +2.30 +2.81 +2.70
Qua Iboe Dated +0.55 +0.95 +1.27
Ukpokiti Dated +1.48 +2.02 +2.07
Usan Dated -3.36 -3.55 -3.31
Yoho Dated +0.50 +0.90 +1.22
Zafiro* Dated -0.08 -0.73 -1.66
Premium for advanced pricing Dated +0.07 +0.07 +0.07
Premium for deferred pricing Dated +0.07 +0.07 +0.07
*Equatorial Guinea, priced by NNPC

Mideast Gulf
Iraq’s state-owned Somo raised the official formula price for Mideast Gulf $/bl
Month Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
its April-loading crude exports to Asia-Pacific.
Somo lifted the April formula price for shipments of its Dubai May 82.01 82.11 -2.42
Oman May Dubai swaps +2.00 81.99 82.09 -2.62
Basrah Medium and Basrah Heavy grades to its core Asia-Pa-
Murban May Dubai swaps +2.86 82.85 82.95 -2.78
cific market by 95¢/bl and $1.95/bl respectively from March. Das May Dubai swaps +1.41 81.40 81.50 -2.78
It priced Basrah Medium at a 15¢/bl discount to the monthly Upper Zakum May Dubai swaps +1.92 81.91 82.01 -2.64
Umm Lulu May Dubai swaps +2.91 82.90 83.00 -2.78
average of Oman-Dubai assessments, and Basrah Heavy at a
Qatar Land May QP 0.00 81.09 81.19 -2.46
$3.90/bl discount. Qatar Marine May QP 0.00 80.39 80.49 -2.46
Somo’s price hikes were mostly in line with those made Qatar Al-Shaheen May Dubai swaps +2.00 81.99 82.09 -2.46
Banoco Arab Medium May Aramco 0.00 83.49 83.59 -1.64
by Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled Saudi Aramco, which had
Basrah Medium fob
increased the April formula prices of its Arab Medium and Apr Somo +1.40 82.29 82.39 -0.67
Iraq†
Arab Heavy grades to Asia-Pacific by 90¢/bl and $2.50/bl Basrah Heavy fob Iraq† Apr Somo +0.10 77.24 77.34 +0.33
DFC fob Qatar May Dubai swaps +1.00 80.99 81.09 -2.46
respectively from March.
LSC fob Qatar May Dubai swaps +0.50 80.49 80.59 -2.46
More details emerged on Rongsheng’s purchase of Upper †Asia-Pacific destination-restricted cargoes
Zakum crude. Traders said that Rongsheng had likely bought
two very large crude carriers (VLCC) of Upper Zakum for RGV differentials to Murban $/bl
June-delivery at premiums above 80¢/bl to May Dubai as- Diff ±
Das -0.31 -0.01
Upper Zakum -1.71 +0.05
Umm Lulu -0.40 -0.02
Qatar Land -0.94 +0.02
Qatar Marine -2.03 +0.08
Differentials to Murban, 4:30pm Singapore $/bl

Month Basis Diff ±
Mideast Gulf
Dubai May May Murban -0.84 +0.36
Oman May May Murban -0.86 +0.16
Qatar Al-Shaheen May May Murban -0.86 +0.32
Banoco Arab Medium May May Murban +0.64 +1.14
Basrah Medium fob Iraq Apr May Murban -0.56 +2.11
Basrah Heavy fob Iraq Apr May Murban -5.61 +3.11
DFC fob Qatar May May Murban -1.86 +0.32
LSC fob Qatar May May Murban -2.36 +0.32
Russia Asia-Pacific
ESPO Blend May Murban -10.99 +0.36
Sokol May Murban -12.86 +0.32
Sakhalin Blend May Murban -15.86 +0.32
Substitute North Sea Dated May Murban +0.17 -0.19
Oman vs Dubai $/bl

1.5
Dubai = 0
1.0
0.5
0.0
hh
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
9 Sep 22 8 Nov 22 6 Jan 23 8 Mar 23

Mideast Gulf
sessments, but this could not be directly confirmed. Mideast Gulf $/bl
The front-month May Brent-Dubai EFS, or the premium of Bid Ask ±
May Ice Brent crude futures to May Dubai swaps, narrowed Dubai forward, 4:30pm Singapore
to $3.13/bl from $3.58/bl in the previous session. A narrower May 82.01 82.11 -2.42
Jun 80.86 80.96 -2.42
EFS may reduce demand for Dubai-linked Mideast Gulf crude, Jul 79.99 80.09 -2.46
as it makes North Sea Dated-linked arbitrage cargoes from Aug 79.13 79.23 -2.51
the Atlantic basin more attractive for refiners in Asia-Pacific. Dubai forward, 4:30pm London
May 81.60 81.68 -0.94
May Dubai partials were heard to have traded around
Jun 80.44 80.54 -0.94
$81.96-82.05/bl. Jul 79.57 79.67 -0.98
Aug 78.71 78.81 -1.03
Dubai intermonths, 4:30pm Singapore
May/Jun 1.15 nc
Jun/Jul 0.87 +0.04
Jul/Aug 0.86 +0.05
Dubai swaps, 4:30pm Singapore
Apr 80.86 80.96 -2.42
May 79.99 80.09 -2.46
Jun 79.13 79.23 -2.51
Jul 78.36 78.46 -2.55
Dubai swaps months are pricing months
Dubai EFS, 4:30pm Singapore
May +3.13 -0.45
Jun +3.49 -0.33
Cabinda vs Dubai month 1 $/bl Jul +3.86 -0.23
Ice Brent, 4:30pm Singapore
10.0
May 83.17 -2.91
Dubai month 1 = 0 Jun 82.67 -2.84
8.0 Jul 82.27 -2.78
Aug 81.85 -2.73
6.0 Oman forward, 4:30pm Singapore
Dubai
Diff Bid Ask ±
4.0 swaps
hh
May +2.00 May 81.99 82.09 -2.62
2.0 Jun +2.09 Jun 81.22 81.32 -0.81
Jul +2.32 Jul 80.68 80.78 -0.80
0.0
-2.0
7 Sep 22 7 Nov 22 6 Jan 23 8 Mar 23 Methodology $/bl
Dubai forward month calculator

Dubai vs North Sea Dated, MEG freight $/bl Ice Brent month 1 May 83.17
Dubai EFS month 1 May - +3.13
Mideast Gulf-UKC 260,000t Dubai swap month 2* May = 80.04
3 Dubai forward month 3* Jul = 80.04
2 Dubai intermonth Jun/Jul + 0.87
Dubai forward month 2 Jun = 80.91
1
Dubai intermonth May/Jun + 1.15
0 Dubai forward month 1 May = 82.06
-1 *Dubai swap month 2 = Dubai forward month 3
Oman forward month calculator
-2
Dubai- Diff to Dubai Oman
MOG
-3 Oman Dubai swaps forward
formula
North Sea Dated = 0 spread swaps outright midpoint
-4
May 0.00 +2.00 +2.00 80.04 82.04
-5 Jun 0.00 +2.09 +2.09 79.18 81.27
Dec 22 Jan 23 Feb 23 Mar 23 Jul 0.00 +2.32 +2.32 78.41 80.73

Asia-Pacific
More details emerged for May-loading naphtha-rich ultra- Asia-Pacific $/bl

light crude and condensate. Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
Chevron is expected to load one cargo of ultra-light Minas ICP +1.00 80.92 81.02 -2.91
sweet Australian Cossack crude over 3-7 May. Cossack last Duri ICP +1.00 81.92 82.02 -2.91
traded for February-loading at a discount wider than $1/bl Cinta ICP +0.30 78.52 78.62 -2.91
to North Sea Dated. There are usually 8-9 cargoes of Cossack Widuri ICP +0.30 79.02 79.12 -2.91
available annually, with two cargoes loading every three Senipah ICP 0.00 75.42 75.52 -2.91
months, traders said. Attaka ICP +1.50 80.42 80.52 -2.91
State-owned QatarEnergy (QE) issued a tender to sell Ardjuna ICP 0.00 79.92 80.02 -2.91
500,000 bl of Low Sulphur Condensate (LSC) loading in May. Belida ICP +1.00 81.92 82.02 -2.91
Bids were due in on 14 March and must be valid until 15 Sutu Den Dated* +4.50 86.69 86.79 -1.79
Bach Ho Dated* +4.50 86.69 86.79 -1.79
March. QE did not offer any Deodorized Field Condensate
Tapis Dated* +6.10 88.29 88.39 -1.79
(DFC) in the tender. Back in February, QE sold one cargo of
Kikeh Dated* +7.60 89.79 89.89 -1.79
April-loading LSC at a premium of about 50¢/bl to front-
Kimanis Dated* +7.80 89.99 90.09 -1.79
month Dubai assessments and a cargo of April-loading DFC at
Labuan Dated* +8.50 90.69 90.79 -1.79
a premium of about $1/bl to front-month Dubai assessments.
Miri Light Dated* +6.20 88.39 88.49 -1.79
Most LSC and DFC exports head to Asia-Pacific.
Kutubu Light Dated* -2.50 79.69 79.79 -1.79
Cossack Dated* -2.50 79.69 79.79 -1.79
North West Shelf Dated* -6.00 76.19 76.29 -1.79
Saharan Blend vs Tapis $/bl
Ichthys Dated* +0.60 82.79 82.89 -1.79
-2.0 Vincent Dated* +7.00 89.19 89.29 -1.79
Pyrenees Dated* +13.10 95.29 95.39 -1.79
-4.0
Van Gogh Dated* +5.10 87.29 87.39 -1.79
Sudan
-6.0
-8.0 Nile Blend Dated* -0.50 81.69 81.79 -1.79

hh
Dar Blend Dated* +1.00 83.19 83.29 -1.79
-10.0 *when North Sea Dated is unavailable owing to a UK holiday, Substitute Dated
will be used
Tapis = 0 Benchmarks
-12.0
North Sea Dated 82.24
-14.0 Substitute Dated 83.07

6 Dec 22 6 Jan 23 8 Feb 23 8 Mar 23 Tapis Singapore close 89.17
Argus Condensate Index (ACI)

$/bl
Bonny Light vs Tapis $/bl
ACI, Qatar DFC 79.18
-4.0
Qatar DFC cfr Singapore 82.49
-5.0 Tapis = 0
Australia North West Shelf (NWS) cfr Singapore 79.18
-6.0 DFC cfr differential to NWS cfr 3
-7.0 $/t
VLCC Qatar-Singapore freight 12.18
-8.0
Aframax northwest Australia-Singapore freight 18.61
hh -9.0
-10.0
Argus Japanese Crude Cocktail Index $/bl
-11.0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
-12.0
Argus JCC (fixed) 110.8562 106.0289 100.4646 94.9921 -
-13.0 Argus JCC (preliminary) 88.1377
7 Sep 22 7 Nov 22 6 Jan 23 8 Mar 23

Asia-Pacific
Delivered China Delivered Northeast Asia $/bl

Month Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
ESPO Blend strengthened further, while the assessment for
Congolese Djeno on a delivered-ex-ship (des) Shandong basis WTI del NE Asia Jun May Dubai +6.35 86.34 86.44 -2.31
rolled to a new month. Delivered ex-ship Shandong prices $/bl

April-delivery ESPO Blend was valued at a $6.80/bl dis- Diff
Grade Timing Basis Low High Price ±
count to June Ice Brent, with the discount narrowing by 20¢/ Mid
bl from the previous session. Tighter supply availability likely ESPO Blend Apr
Jun Ice
-6.80 75.47 76.27 75.87 -2.64
Brent
pushed up spot prices of the grade with limited cargoes
Jul Ice
available for April-delivery, while the overhang of cargoes Djeno May +1.00 82.27 84.27 83.27 nc
Brent
from previous months had cleared up. Tupi Jun
Aug Ice
+3.00 84.55 85.15 84.85 -2.73
Brent
Rising freight rates also supported the spot differentials
Aug Ice
for west African grades. May-delivery Djeno was assessed at Johan Sverdrup Jun
Brent
+4.00 84.85 86.85 85.85 -2.73
a $1/bl premium to July Ice Brent, although no deals were Jun Ice
Oman Apr -12.00 69.67 71.67 70.67 -2.84
Brent
heard concluded at that level, while offers for May-delivery
were heard at a $2/bl premium. May-delivery Cabinda were
Mideast Gulf and Atlantic basin crude cfr Asia (fob plus freight)
offered at around a $7/bl premium to July Ice Brent. Singapore China
The sour indicator in Shandong market, Oman, was at a Month $/bl ± $/bl ±
$12/bl discount to June Ice Brent for April-delivery, while Mideast Gulf
June-delivery Oman Export Blend on a net forward basis Dubai May 83.86 -2.37 84.75 -2.35
Oman May 83.82 -2.57 84.70 -2.54
remained around a $2.80/bl premium over August Ice Brent.
Murban May 84.61 -2.74 85.46 -2.71
Upper Zakum May 83.73 -2.59 84.60 -2.57
Umm Zulu May 84.64 -2.73 85.48 -2.71
Qatar Marine May 82.19 -2.41 83.05 -2.39
Al-Shaheen May 83.84 -2.41 84.73 -2.39
Basrah Medium Apr 84.17 -0.62 85.07 -0.60
Basrah Heavy Apr 79.18 +0.38 80.11 +0.41
West Africa
Cabinda Dtd 87.68 -2.79 88.50 -2.75
Girassol Dtd 88.20 -2.80 89.03 -2.75
Bonny Light Dtd 87.93 -2.80 88.74 -2.75
Qua Iboe Dtd 87.99 -2.80 88.79 -2.76
Escravos Dtd 88.80 -2.79 89.61 -2.75
North Sea
Forties Dtd 88.11 -2.95
US Gulf coast
WTI Prompt 85.26 -3.01 85.74 -3.01
Mars Apr 82.71 -3.15 83.23 -3.15
WCS Apr 75.61 -3.08 76.16 -3.08
Pyrenees $/bl Minas $/bl
130 100
95
120
90
110
85
hh
hh
100
80
90 75
80 70

Russia Asia-Pacific
Eastbound crude exports from Russia’s Transneft system are Russia Asia-Pacific $/bl
expected to fall in March, according to market participants. Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
Eastbound flows through the Transneft system to the ESPO Blend Apr Dubai swaps -9.00 71.86 71.96 -2.42
far east port of Kozmino could fall by 7pc on the month to ESPO Blend* May Ice Brent -10.39 71.86 71.96 -2.42
810,000 b/d (3.4mn t) in March. And Rosneft pipeline exports Sokol May Dubai swaps -10.00 69.99 70.09 -2.46
to China — through a spur from East Siberia-Pacific Ocean Sakhalin Blend May Dubai swaps -13.00 66.99 67.09 -2.46
system and through Kazakhstan — could decline by 10pc to a *Apr-loading cargoes

Russia-Caspian crude cif basis Singapore
combined 760,000 b/d (3.16mn t).
Bid Ask ±
BTC Blend 87.99 88.05 -2.52
Assessment rationale
Urals (Black Sea) 51.15 51.21 -2.00
ESPO Blend fob Kozmino (PA0007196) is assessed on the basis
of transactions, as and when these are identified in the mar-
ket commentary, in accordance with the methodology. Dirty freight rates from Kozmino (ESPO) 100,000t $/bl
Rate
To Yeosu 3.15
To north China 3.24
To Chiba 3.24
To Singapore 3.30
Tapis vs Minas $/bl Urals fob Primorsk vs ESPO Blend $/bl

16 -5
Minas = 0 ESPO Blend = 0
14 -10
12 -15
10 -20
hh hh
8 -25
6 -30
4 -35
7 Dec 22 6 Jan 23 8 Feb 23 8 Mar 23 7 Sep 22 7 Nov 22 6 Jan 23 8 Mar 23
ESPO Blend vs ANS USWC $/bl Azeri Light vs Tapis $/bl

0 4
ANS USWC = 0
2
-5
0
-10 -2
hh
-4
-15
-6
-20 -8
2 Sep 22 2 Nov 22 4 Jan 23 8 Mar 23 6 Dec 22 6 Jan 23 8 Feb 23 8 Mar 23

Official prices
Official formula prices $/bl Official formula prices (continued) $/bl

Basis Basis
Saudi Arabia Feb Mar Apr Dubai Mar Apr May
Saudi Arabia to US: fob Ras Tanura
Arab Extra Light ASCI +8.20 +8.20 +8.20 Dubai fob Oman MOG OSP -0.10 -0.20 -0.20
Arab Light ASCI +6.35 +6.65 +6.65 Yemen fob Salif/Ash Shihr
Arab Medium ASCI +6.15 +6.45 +6.45 Marib Light Dated na na na
Arab Heavy ASCI +5.70 +6.00 +6.00
Masila Dated na na na
Saudi Arabia to US: delivered US Gulf
Arab Extra Light ASCI +9.50 +9.50 +9.50 Iraq Feb* Mar* Apr†
Arab Light ASCI +7.65 +7.95 +7.95 Iraq to Europe
Arab Medium ASCI +7.45 +7.75 +7.75
Kirkuk (fob Ceyhan) Dated -3.25 -1.45 -1.45
Arab Heavy ASCI +7.00 +7.30 +7.30
Saudi Arabia to NW Europe: fob Ras Tanura* Basrah Medium Dated -8.95 -6.95 -5.70
Arab Extra Light Ice Brent Settlement -0.40 +1.60 +1.60 Basrah Heavy Dated -13.15 -11.25 -9.50
Arab Light Ice Brent Settlement -1.50 +0.50 +1.00
Iraq to US
Arab Medium Ice Brent Settlement -2.80 -0.80 +0.50
Arab Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -5.90 -3.90 -2.60 Kirkuk (fob Ceyhan) ASCI 1.00 1.00 1.00
Saudi Arabia to Mediterranean: fob Sidi Kerir* Basrah Medium ASCI -1.70 -1.50 -1.20
Arab Extra Light Ice Brent Settlement 0.00 +2.00 +2.10
Basrah Heavy ASCI -5.65 -6.15 -6.15
Arab Light Ice Brent Settlement -1.50 +0.50 +0.80
Arab Medium Ice Brent Settlement -2.50 -0.50 +0.50 Iraq to Asia-Pacific
Arab Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -6.40 -4.40 -3.10 Basrah Medium Oman/Dubai avg -1.40 -1.10 -0.15
Saudi Arabia to Mediterranean: fob Ras Tanura*
Basrah Heavy Oman/Dubai avg -6 -5.85 -3.90
Arab Extra Light Ice Brent Settlement 0.00 +2.00 +2.10
Arab Light Ice Brent Settlement -1.50 +0.50 +0.80 Official selling prices $/bl
Arab Medium Ice Brent Settlement -2.50 -0.50 +0.50
Arab Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -6.40 -4.40 -3.10 Abu Dhabi Jan Feb Mar
Saudi Arabia to Asia-Pacific: fob Ras Tanura Murban 90.90 80.11 82.63
Arab Super Light Oman/Dubai avg +4.95 +5.95 +4.95 Das premium to Murban -1.20 -1.40 -1.45
Arab Extra Light Oman/Dubai avg +3.55 +2.25 +2.70 Umm Lulu premium to Murban 0.00 +0.05 +0.05
Upper Zakum premium to Murban -5.20 -3.10 -1.95
Arab Light Oman/Dubai avg +1.80 +2.00 +2.50
Qatar Jan Feb Mar
Arab Medium Oman/Dubai avg +1.10 +1.60 +2.50
Dukhan/Land premium to Oman/Dubai avg +4.60
Arab Heavy Oman/Dubai avg -2.25 -1.75 +0.75 Marine premium to Oman/Dubai avg +1.85
Iran Jan Feb Mar Dukhan/Land premium to Dubai avg +2.10 +1.10
Iran to Mediterranean: fob Kharg Island Marine premium to Dubai avg +0.75 +0.40
Iranian Light Ice Brent Settlement -2.10 -3.55 -1.60 Oman Feb Mar Apr
Iranian Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -4.75 -5.85 -3.90 Oman 77.43 80.92 82.23
Foroozan Blend Ice Brent Settlement -4.60 -6.00 -3.80 Indonesia Dec Jan Feb
Soroush Ice Brent Settlement na na na Minas 78.74 79.71 80.76
Duri 85.13 86.72 87.78
Nowruz Ice Brent Settlement na na na
Widuri 77.58 78.55 79.60
Iran to NW Europe: fob Kharg Island
Belida 78.91 80.88 81.11
Iranian Light Ice Brent Settlement -2.05 -3.40 -1.35 Attaka 78.82 80.69 81.04
Iranian Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -4.85 -5.80 -3.70 Ardjuna 77.87 79.84 80.07
Foroozan Blend Ice Brent Settlement -4.95 -5.90 -3.65 Cinta 77.03 78.00 79.05
Iran to Asia-Pacific: fob Kharg Island Senipah 70.25 72.95 74.87
Iranian Light Oman/Dubai avg +3.15 +1.80 +2.00 Malaysia Dec Jan Feb
Iranian Heavy Oman/Dubai avg +0.75 -0.25 +0.35 Tapis 88.00 88.30 86.45
Foroozan Blend Oman/Dubai avg +0.70 -0.25 +0.40 MCO Alpha Premium +12.75 +10.80 +9.00
Soroush Oman/Dubai avg -4.05 -5.70 -5.00 Labuan 93.87 93.58 91.49
Miri 93.87 93.58 91.49
Nowruz Oman/Dubai avg -4.05 -5.70 -5.00
Kikeh 93.87 93.58 91.49
Kuwait Jan Feb Mar
Bintulu 88.64 90.34 88.31
Kuwait to Asia-Pacific Dulang 96.12 94.58 93.29
Kuwait Oman/Dubai avg +2.10 +1.05 +1.40 Brunei Oct Nov Dec
Kuwait to US Seria Light 100.38 99.19 88.00
Kuwait ASCI +6.15 +6.15 +6.45 Champion 100.48 99.29 88.10
Kuwait Arab Medium 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kuwait to Mediterranean Reference prices $/bl
fob Kuwait Dated -3.80 -4.30 -1.30
Opec reference basket monthly avg Jan Feb Mar
fob Sidi Kerir Dated -3.50 -4.00 -1.00
Opec na 81.62 81.88
Kuwait to northwest Europe
Argus Japanese Crude Cocktail Index Oct Nov Dec
fob Kuwait Dated -4.05 -4.55 -1.55
Argus JCC 106.03 100.46 94.99
*months prior to July were priced against Ice Bwave
The Argus Japanese Crude Cocktail Index is created by Argus based on data pub-
lished by the Customs and Tariff Bureau of Japan’s Ministry of Finance.

futures and forward markets
Futures markets $/bl Forward markets $/bl

Open High Low S'pore* London† Settle ± Bid Ask ±
Ice Brent
North Sea, Singapore close
May 83.03 83.59 82.06 83.17 82.69 82.66 -0.63
Jun 82.50 83.12 81.61 82.67 82.22 82.19 -0.61 Apr 83.47 83.55 -2.88
Jul 82.13 82.76 81.26 82.27 81.86 81.82 -0.61 May 83.22 83.28 -2.96
*4:30pm Singapore minute marker, †4:30pm London minute marker
Jun 82.71 82.79 -2.89
Nymex Light Sweet
Apr 77.32 77.73 76.11 77.35 76.75 76.66 -0.92 Jul 82.31 82.39 -2.83
May 77.36 77.88 76.26 77.50 76.90 76.81 -0.91 North Sea, London close
Jun 77.48 77.88 76.29 77.50 76.92 76.85 -0.86
Dated 82.21 82.27 -1.79
Jul 77.19 77.70 76.14 77.30 76.76 76.70 -0.83
Dec 23 74.63 -0.84 Apr 83.01 83.09 -1.52
Dec 24 70.06 -0.58 May 82.80 82.86 -1.48
Dec 25 66.35 -0.33
Jun 82.30 82.38 -1.42
Dec 26 63.21 -0.10
Dec 27 60.47 +0.08 Jul 81.94 82.02 -1.37
DME Oman Dubai, Singapore close
May 82.04 -2.62
Jun 81.27 -0.81 May 82.01 82.11 -2.42
Jul 80.73 -0.80 Jun 80.86 80.96 -2.42
Aug 80.22 -0.76
Jul 79.99 80.09 -2.46
Volume bl 1,714,000
IFAD Murban Aug 79.13 79.23 -2.51
May 82.90 -2.78 Dubai, London close
Jun 82.49 -2.69
May 81.60 81.68 -0.94
Jul 81.96 -2.57
Aug 81.40 -2.55 Jun 80.44 80.54 -0.94
Volume bl 4,249,000 Jul 79.57 79.67 -0.98
Tocom Mideast Gulf (day session)
Aug 78.71 78.81 -1.03
May 81.78 -0.56
Jun 80.31 -0.56 WTI Cushing, 1:30pm Houston
Jul 79.34 -0.54 Apr 76.64 76.68 -0.92
Aug 78.42 -0.54
May 76.79 76.83 -0.91
Volume bl 4,046,243
Jun 76.83 76.87 -0.86
INE crude futures Jul 76.68 76.72 -0.83
Timing Settle Yuan/bl ± Settle $/bl ±
Apr 573.20 -4.70 82.45 -1.11 Intermonths $/bl

May 571.90 -4.90 82.26 -1.15 Mid
Jun 569.80 -4.20 81.96 -1.04
Jul 567.30 -5.00 81.60 -1.15 North Sea Singapore close
Volume bl 102,414,000 Apr/May 0.260
May/Jun 0.500
Ice Brent: First month vs second month $/bl
Jun/Jul 0.400
3.0 North Sea London close
Ice Brent second month = 0
Apr/May 0.220
2.0 May/Jun 0.490
Jun/Jul 0.360
1.0
hh
Forward spreads 4:30pm London $/bl
0.0
N Sea/Dubai WTI/N Sea WTI/Dubai
-1.0 Apr - -6.30

May - -5.93 -4.74
-2.0 Jun 1.85 -5.42 -3.57

14 Sep 22 10 Nov 22 10 Jan 23 8 Mar 23 Jul 2.36 -5.22 -2.86

Daily Netbacks
Northwest Europe (8 Mar) $/bl

Complex Simple
Yield Freight Netback ± 7 Mar Yield Freight Netback ± 7 Mar
Arab Light 93.03 2.11 90.92 -1.53 89.93 2.11 87.82 -1.47
Arab Heavy 85.56 2.19 83.37 -1.32 82.16 2.19 79.97 -1.27
Azeri 99.84 3.25 96.59 -1.62 97.69 3.25 94.44 -1.51
Bonny Light 101.11 3.26 97.85 -1.33 99.49 3.26 96.23 -1.25
Brass River 100.32 3.15 97.17 -1.22 98.84 3.15 95.69 -1.26
Brent 96.79 1.74 95.05 -1.54 94.72 1.74 92.98 -1.46
Es Sider 95.40 3.23 92.17 -1.51 93.36 3.23 90.13 -1.49
Forties 95.83 1.72 94.11 -1.52 92.78 1.72 91.06 -1.51
Iranian Light 92.72 2.11 90.61 -1.55 89.16 2.11 87.05 -1.49
Kirkuk 91.40 2.10 89.30 -1.48 88.45 2.10 86.35 -1.43
Kuwait 87.60 2.16 85.44 -1.41 84.58 2.16 82.42 -1.34
Murban 96.97 2.02 94.95 -1.67 93.91 2.02 91.89 -1.65
Saharan Blend 97.38 3.06 94.32 -1.64 95.82 3.06 92.76 -1.65
Urals 93.15 0.00 93.15 -1.52 89.59 0.00 89.59 -1.45
Zueitina 96.71 3.21 93.50 -1.54 93.28 3.21 90.07 -1.44
Singapore (8 Mar) $/bl

Complex Simple
Arab Light 94.23 3.01 91.22 -3.36 84.10 3.01 81.09 -3.20
Arab Heavy 89.22 3.12 86.10 -3.30 76.76 3.12 73.64 -3.10
Dubai 94.45 3.05 91.40 -3.39 82.72 3.05 79.67 -3.20
ESPO Blend 95.65 3.29 92.36 -3.04 82.12 3.29 78.83 -2.80
Iranian Heavy 91.97 3.08 88.89 -3.36 78.54 3.08 75.46 -3.13
Minas 94.46 3.93 90.53 -2.98 79.04 3.93 75.11 -2.71
Murban 96.32 2.88 93.44 -3.37 86.02 2.88 83.14 -3.19
Oman 92.18 3.07 89.11 -3.37 78.25 3.07 75.18 -3.13
US Gulf coast (8 Mar) $/bl

Complex Simple
Arab Light 103.73 2.54 101.19 -1.56 94.00 2.54 91.46 -1.63
Arab Medium 101.94 2.58 99.36 -1.45 89.94 2.58 87.36 -1.59
Bonny Light 110.01 3.98 106.03 -1.41 90.43 3.98 86.45 -1.19
LLS 106.63 0.00 106.63 -1.49 99.85 0.00 99.85 -1.45
Mars 101.94 0.00 101.94 -1.36 88.86 0.00 88.86 -1.45
Maya 93.22 6.36 86.86 -1.15 74.18 6.36 67.82 -1.57
WTI 106.81 0.00 106.81 -1.38 101.17 0.00 101.17 -1.27
US west coast (8 Mar) $/bl

Complex Simple
ANS 107.97 0.00 107.97 -5.65 90.92 0.00 90.92 -2.79

Oriente 105.67 9.37 96.30 -4.73 91.58 9.37 82.21 -2.10

EIA weekly data
Industry statistics ’000 b/d US refinery inputs ’000 b/d

EIA Change
18,000
Production 12,200 -100
Imports 6,271 63 16,000
Total Stocks 478,513 -1,694
14,000
Runs 14,967 -12
Percent Utilization 86.0% 0.2 12,000
Stocks Padd 1 6,655 -492
Stocks Padd 2 128,292 -280 10,000
Stocks Padd 3 269,857 2,618

8,000
Stocks Padd 4 24,682 -479 Feb 22 May 22 Sep 22 Dec 22 Mar 23
Stocks Padd 5 49,026 -3,060
Inputs 4 Week Moving Avg — EIA
Imports Padd 1-4 5,277 305
Imports Padd 1 524 84
Imports Padd 2 3,046 214
US crude inventories mn bl
Imports Padd 3 1,163 -75
Imports Padd 4 544 82 580
Imports Padd 5 993 -243
Runs Padd 1 669 -37 530
Runs Padd 2 3,825 13
Runs Padd 3 8,002 6 480
Runs Padd 4 527 -22
Runs Padd 5 1,945 29 430
— EIA
380
Feb 22 May 22 Sep 22 Dec 22 Mar 23
Stocks 4 Week Moving Avg — EIA
US crude imports ’000 b/d
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
Feb 22 May 22 Sep 22 Dec 22 Mar 23
Imports 4 Week Moving Avg — EIA

Deals done
Argus AGS deals done $/bl

Adjusted Volume
Differential Reported AGS index AGS Marker
Location basis differential price differential price b/d bl
Magellan East Houston Apr WTI +1.70 +1.63 78.29 1,000

*Table shows deals as reported and also normalized values for the calculation of VWAs
North America pipeline deals done

Trade Basis
Grade Location Differential basis Differential Price $/bl Volume b/d
month month
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days -0.07 1,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Apr Apr WTI +1.50 1,000

Deals done (continued)

Trade Basis
month month

WTI Midland Plains Apr Apr WTI Midland Enterprise +0.03 3,500
AWB Cushing Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days -10.75 3,448
Bakken Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr CMA Nymex + Argus WTI Diff to CMA +1.10 3,000
Bakken Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr WTI +1.10 1,000
Bakken DAPL North Dakota Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days +1.55 1,000
Bakken DAPL North Dakota Mar Mar CMA Nymex trade days +0.95 1,000
Bakken Patoka Illinois Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days +1.85 3,333
Cold Lake Cushing Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days -10.15 1,000
Cold Lake Houston Houston area Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days -9.00 3,333
Grand Mesa Light Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr WTI +0.15 2,000
HLS Empire Louisiana Apr Apr WTI +2.50 5,000
HLS Empire Louisiana Apr Apr WTI +2.50 8,000
LLS St. James Louisiana Apr Apr WTI +2.70 1,000
Light Sweet Guernsey Guernsey Wyoming Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days +0.65 1,000
Light Sweet Guernsey Guernsey Wyoming Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days +0.65 3,000
Mars Clovelly Louisiana Apr Apr WTI -0.70 1,000

Deals done (continued)

Trade Basis
month month

Poseidon Houma Louisiana Apr Apr Mars -1.05 2,000
Poseidon Houma Louisiana Apr Apr WTI -1.65 3,000
Poseidon Houma Louisiana Apr Apr WTI -1.55 2,000
Saddlehorn Light Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr WTI +0.15 2,000
Southern Green Canyon Nederland / Texas City Apr Apr WTI -0.75 1,000
Southern Green Canyon Nederland / Texas City Apr Apr WTI -0.75 7,000
Thunder Horse Clovelly Louisiana Apr Apr WTI +2.45 1,000
Thunder Horse Clovelly Louisiana Apr Apr WTI +2.75 2,000
WTL Midland Midland Texas Apr Apr WTI Midland -0.50 1,000
Global crude deals $/bl

Deal Delivery Diff Diff Loading Loading
Region Grade Volume bl Price Diff basis
date period timing price from to
Northwest Europe North Sea 8 Mar 23 May 200,000 82.85

Northwest Europe North Sea 8 Mar 23 May 100,000 82.78
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 8 Mar 23 100,000 May North Sea -0.75 20 Mar 23 24 Mar 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 8 Mar 23 100,000 Jun North Sea -0.25 3 Apr 23 6 Apr 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 8 Mar 23 100,000 Jun North Sea -0.25 3 Apr 23 6 Apr 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 8 Mar 23 500,000 CFD +0.06 3 Apr 23 11 Apr 23

Infrastructure news
Workers seek to stop Feyzin refinery stopped for some unplanned downtime.
Striking staff at TotalEnergies’ 109,300 b/d Feyzin refinery in Workers say strikes are continuing at ExxonMobil's
France voted to halt operations at the plant during a general 133,000 b/d Fos and 236,000 b/d Port Jerome plants, and at
assembly today, but TotalEnergies has refused to allow the the Gravenchon petrochemical unit. There is also action at
stoppage. UK-Chinese refiner Petroineos' 207,100 b/d Lavera refinery.
Workers said that they have “demanded the shutdown But refinery operations have not stopped, unlike during
of the refinery" but this has been rejected by management. the strikes held between September-November 2022 when
TotalEnergies has yet to reply to a request for comment. storage became full.
Workers added that the potential stoppage will be discussed Strikes are also being held by dockers and shore staff
between unions and management tomorrow. at the Mediterranean port of Fos-Lavera, halting all crude
Some workers at the refinery have downed tools as part discharge and products loading. Some tankers are waiting at
of a nationwide wave of industrial action over changes to the port to unload.
pension rights proposed by the French government. The government has said it will not allow shortages at
All deliveries in and out of France's six refineries have service stations, raising the possibility of workers being
been halted, with the CGT union saying earlier today that requisitioned to secure supply. TotalEnergies said its stocks
its members remained out on strike across the downstream levels are high and there is retail no shortage. The CGT said
complex. it is possible the government could force workers to return
Feyzin, which is located near Lyon, made a loss of to their posts, as it did last year.
€180mn ($191mn) last year, even though refining margins Widespread strike action is continuing nationally across a
in Europe rose sharply as a result of the impact of Russia's string of industrial, transport and municipal sectors.
invasion of Ukraine. The refinery's director Gilles Noguerol By Adam Porter
asked workers last week to avoid interrupting operations at
the plant. Phillips 66 shuts Rodeo calciner
Feyzin was the last refinery to return to work following US independent refiner Phillips 66 has shut down the Rodeo
prolonged wage-related strike action in September-Novem- petroleum coke calciner at its 120,000 b/d San Francisco,
ber last year. The facility California, refining complex, ahead of the plant’s shift to
has been hampered by a number of incidents in recent renewable fuels production.
years. It had to contend with leaks in a crude supply pipeline
in the summer of 2019 and a fire in a crude distillation unit
in October 2021. There was another fire in July last year
and a third blaze broke out in a fluid catalytic cracker last Announcements
September.
By Adam Porter Change to Qatar Land and Qatar Marine
prices
French strikes block refineries for 2nd day Argus has changed the way it calculates outright prices
All movements in and out of French refineries remain halted for Qatar Land and Qatar Marine crudes, following a
today, as workers continue a planned three-day bout of change in QatarEnergy’s (QE) formula for its official
industrial action over proposed government changes to pen- prices.
sion rights. From January 2023, QE formula prices for Qatar Land
The CGT union said today its members remained out on and Qatar Marine are differentials to the monthly aver-
strike across the downstream complex. age of front-month Dubai prices. Argus continues to
TotalEnergies said all loadings and deliveries were assess Qatar Land and Qatar Marine spot prices at differ-
stopped at its three domestic refineries, the 219,000 b/d entials to the grades’ anticipated official prices for the
Donges, 109,3000 b/d Feyzin and 246,900 b/d Gonfreville. loading month. Outright prices for the grades have been
Workers are also halting movements in and out of the com- republished for the period between 8 December 2022
pany's Flanders products depot and Carling petrochemical and 25 January 2023. For any queries please contact
unit. Workers are on strike at its 500,000 t/yr La Mede hy- Azlin Ahmad at azlin.ahmad@argusmedia.com.
drotreated vegetable oil (HVO) plant, although it was already

Infrastructure news
The company is clearing inventory from the site, with a The US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Adminis-
roughly 40,000 metric tonne April-loading green coke cargo tration (PHMSA) issued an amended corrective action order
from the Rodeo refinery on offer, with bids due today. yesterday to Keystone operator TC Energy limiting the op-
The Rodeo coke will be loading at the Bay Area bulk ter- erating pressure even after the company completes require-
minal (BABT) in Pittsburg, California, a diversion from typical ments laid out by the regulator.
operations, as this supply previously loaded at the Levin- “The increasing severity of spills in recent years; the
Richmond terminal (LRT) in Richmond, California. possibility of future failures caused by a combination of fac-
But a larger capacity at BABT, with a maximum draft tors similar to those involved in the 2022 and prior failures,
of 40ft (12.2m), proved more favorable for moving out the including transition welds,” were among the considerations
calciner’s green coke inventory. Phillips 66 last tendered that compelled PHMSA to issue the updated order.
Rodeo green coke in late January, with bids due on 24 Feb- The amended order applies to both Phase 1 and 2 of the
ruary. That 23,000t cargo loaded at LRT’s berth B, which has Keystone system, with the lower pressures to be adhered to
a maximum draft of 30ft. The refiner will continue to load within 30 days. Phase 1 starts at the US-Canada border and
some Rodeo green coke cargoes at BABT later this year. travels south before splitting at Steele City, Nebraska. Phase
The LRT terminal has been scheduled to close following 1 carries on to Illinois while Phase 2 begins at Steele City
an ordinance Richmond passed in early 2020. and goes onward to Cushing, Oklahoma.
In 2019, when the city started considering the ordinance Pressure, one component of determining a pipeline’s
banning the storage and handling of petroleum coke and coal SMYS, is further limited to 923 lbs per square inch gauge
in city limits within five years, sources said that BABT would (psig) along the 96-mile segment south of Steele City within
not be an easy option for Rodeo coke because the terminal which the rupture occurred. That can be increased to the
was at capacity and the refiner would have to build addition- 72pc of its SMYS only after approval from PHMSA.
al covered storage. Phillips 66 sued Richmond in February The current limit on the 96-mile segment is 80pc of the
2020 seeking to overturn the ordinance. 1,153 psig pressure the line was operating at the point of
The refiner said later that year that it would cease petro- failure when it ruptured on 7 December near Washington,
leum refining at Rodeo, converting the refinery to renewable Kansas, spilling 12,937 bl of heavy Canadian crude. The line
fuels production. That conversion is set to be complete by was restarted at this reduced pressure three weeks after the
early 2024, the company has said. accident.
Phillips 66 will retain its permit to operate the refinery’s The maximum operating pressure of the Keystone system
51,000 b/d delayed coker for the possibility of future use, al- is 1,440 psig.
though the unit will be idled, according to an environmental Other considerations in a SMYS are diameter, wall thick-
impact report from Contra Costa County, California. ness and safety factors.
The calciner’s closure follows another US west coast The investigation into the spill continues but initial
calciner shutdown, Marathon Petroleum’s Carson calciner findings from a mechanical and metallurgical analysis found
at its 363,500 b/d Los Angeles refinery complex, in July of there was a weld flaw at a pipe-to-fitting girth weld done at
last year, which caught many in the market by surprise. The a fabrication facility. The flaw led to a crack that was exac-
reduction in US west coast calcining capacity is leading to erbated by bending stress over time, leading to the rupture.
some additional demand moving to US Gulf coast calciners. A special permit granted in 2007 to TC Energy, then
By Delaney Ramirez known as TransCanada, allowed the operator to run Key-
stone at 80pc of its SMYS because it had used higher quality
Keystone pipeline limited to 72pc pressure steel during construction. While PHMSA did not revoke this
The 622,000 b/d Keystone oil pipeline, which ruptured and special permit, the 72pc limit will bring Keystone in-line
spilled crude in Kansas late last year, will have its operat- with other similar pipelines in the US.
ing pressure capped at 72pc of its Specified Minimum Yield Keystone is the only pipeline in the US with this special
Strength (SMYS) because of regulator concerns over future permit.
accidents. By Brett Holmes

iNDUSTRY news
Announcements
SK Earthon eyes China, Vietnam oil production
South Korean petroleum exploration firm SK Earthon is plan- Changes to North Sea Dated assessment
ning first crude oil production at a block in China and another Following consultation, Argus will include light sweet
block in Vietnam, even as it works towards cutting emissions. Midland WTI crude shipments in its assessment of
But it is not clear how much production the firm is tar- North Sea Dated crude prices from May 2023. Argus
geting from these blocks. has published a list of 12 US Gulf coast terminals
SK Earthon is preparing to start crude oil production at from which exports of Midland WTI to Europe are
the 17/03 block in China’s Pearl River Mouth basin in the eligible for consideration in the price discovery
second half of 2023, in line with the firm’s expectations in process.
March 2022. Domestic refiner SK Innovation discovered the The approved terminals from which cargoes of
block in 2018 and it was in the engineering, procurement Midland WTI loading for delivery to Europe will be
construction stage in March 2022 after the firm declared eligible for inclusion in the Argus North Sea Dated
the final investment decision with partner Chinese state- assessment are:
controlled CNOOC, SK Innovation said last year. SK Earthon
split from SK Innovation in October 2021 to become a wholly- Houston/Texas City/surrounding area
owned SK Innovation subsidiary. Enterprise Houston Ship Channel (EHSC)
SK Earthon is also in the process of securing approval
from the Vietnam government for the development of Energy Transfer Houston Terminal (ETHT)
the 15-1/05 oil field, with plans to start crude production
in 2025, it said. SK Innovation discovered crude oil while LBC Bayport (Seabrook)
exploring the 15-1/05 block that is located in the Cuu Long
basin off southern Vietnam, it said in 2019. SK Innovation had Enterprise Texas City
signed a contract with the Vietnamese government for the
block’s mining rights in February 2007. Enterprise Freeport
SK Earthon is also furthering its emission-reduction ef-
forts. The firm is trying to cut CO2 in the crude oil produc- Corpus Christi/Ingleside
tion process and attempting to permanently store generated Epic
CO2 underground. The design of the 17/03 block in China al-
lows for the recovering and recycling of waste heat from the Enbridge Ingleside
generator’s exhaust gas, cutting CO2 generation by about
30pc, according to SK Earthon. Flint Hills Resources
The firm also plans to secure 2mn t of storage for carbon
capture and storage (CCS) by 2030 and handle CO2 generated by Nustar Corpus Christi North Beach
parent company SK as well as other domestic and foreign firms.
"The technical capabilities required to explore and devel- Pin Oak
op CCS reservoirs are almost the same as the underground
structure evaluation technology applied to the oil develop- Buckeye Texas Hub
ment project," SK Earthon president Myeong Seong said.
By Tng Yong Li South Texas Gateway
Japanese weekly refinery activity: Runs drop Argus will continue to publish a version of the North
Japanese weekly refinery runs averaged 79pc in the week to Sea Dated assessment excluding WTI, called Dated
4 March, down by 4.6 percentage points from a week earlier. BFOET but will retire its New North Sea Dated as-
Crude throughput dropped by 5.5pc to 2.6mn b/d, while sessment (PA0025857).
operational capacity was stable at 3.2mn b/d, according to To discuss these changes, please contact Michael
the Petroleum Association of Japan. Carolan at michael.carolan@argusmedia.com or call
Refiner Eneos halted refining operations at its 129,000 +44 20 7780 4200.
b/d Chiba plant on 6 March for a turnaround, but this came

iNDUSTRY news
too late to reflect in the latest data. The scheduled mainte- Opec+, agreed in October last year to lower its overall crude
nance is planned to finish in late-April, the company said. production ceiling by around 2mn b/d from November on-
Oil product output fell by 9.8pc to 2.7mn b/d. Low-sulphur wards, in anticipation of economic weakness in the first part
fuel oil (LSFO) and naphtha production dropped by 44pc to of this year. Opec+ ministers reaffirmed their support for the
113,000 b/d, and by 23pc to 285,000 b/d, respectively. policy when they met in December, while a smaller group of
Oil product exports dropped by 35pc to 510,000 b/d. key ministers that make up the Joint Ministerial Monitoring
Shipments of LSFO and high-sulphur fuel oil slumped by 61pc Committee (JMMC) did the same in February.
to 55,000 b/d, and by 60pc to 52,000 b/d, respectively. The JMMC is due to meet again early next month to
Oil product stocks edged lower by 0.4pc to 55.1mn bl, review market conditions before a full meeting of Opec+
mainly pressured by kerosine inventories falling by 8.3pc to ministers in June which should, in theory, determine output
7.7mn bl. Gasoil stocks also declined by 4.4pc to 7.5mn bl. policy for the second half of the year.
Stocks of unfinished products fell by 2.1pc to 37.6mn bl, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said in
while crude inventories inched down by 0.6pc to 66.2mn bl. an interview with consultancy Energy Aspects last month that,
Japan’s trade and industry ministry (Meti) set its subsidy come what may, the Opec+ group will stick to its current output
for gasoline, gasoil, kerosine and heavy fuel oil at ¥18.10/li- policy and prevailing production quotas until the end of 2023.
tre ($20/bl) during 9-15 March, up from ¥17/l a week earlier. By Nader Itayim and Haik Gugarats
The funding came after the country’s gasoline retail price
averaged ¥167.40/l on 6 March. Meti is targeting average Somo issues tender to sell Kirkuk crude
gasoline prices at ¥168/l with the subsidy. Iraq’s state-owned oil marketer Somo has issued a tender to
By Maiko Nakashima sell an April-loading cargo of Kirkuk blend crude, according
to a document seen by Argus.
Opec anxious about slowdown in Europe, US Somo is offering up to 600,000 bl for loading on 3-5 April.
Although global oil demand continues to recover post- The Kirkuk cargo is resellable but the destination is listed as
pandemic, lingering signs of economic weakness in Europe Europe. The firm is requesting bids be submitted at a pre-
and the US remain a cause for concern for oil markets, Opec mium to the grade's official April formula price for Europe-
secretary-general Haitham al-Ghais said. bound exports, which has been set at a $1.45/bl discount to
Al-Ghais expects global oil demand to keep “improving” this North Sea Dated, unchanged from March. Somo will accept
year, with the Opec secretariat forecasting year-on-year growth offers until midday Baghdad time (09:00 GMT) on 9 March.
of 2.3mn b/d. But while growth prospects in key Asian demand The Iraqi firm last circulated a sell tender for Kirkuk
centres like China are good, the outlook for many European blend in late January for a February-loading shipment. Somo
countries and the US is gloomier, he said. "China was closed awarded the cargo at a small premium to the grade’s official
down for most of last year, and that plays into our 2.3mn b/d February formula price for Europe to Greek refiner Motor Oil
figure,” al-Ghais told the CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston Hellas. The tender result was not confirmed.
on 7 March. “We figured China alone will account for about The majority of Iraq's Kirkuk blend exports are marketed
500,000-600,000 b/d of demand improvement this year." by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Around 452,000
A significant chunk of the remaining 1.7mn-1.8mn b/d b/d of Kirkuk blend was loaded in 2022, of which 381,000 b/d
of demand growth will come from other non-OECD Asian was handled by the KRG and 71,000 b/d by Somo, according to
countries like India, he said. "There is phenomenal growth in Argus tracking data. Somo’s share is typically piped to Turkish
Asia," but the "slowdown" in Europe coupled with economic refiner Tupras' 113,400 b/d Kirikkale refinery.
weakness and inflationary concerns in the US remain a point By Kuganiga Kuganeswaran
of “concern” for Opec, according to al-Ghais.
US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell announced Somo lifts April crude prices to Asia, Europe
plans yesterday to accelerate upcoming interest rate in- Iraq's state-owned oil marketer Somo has increased the offi-
creases in the face of persistent inflation. cial formula prices for the majority of its April-loading crude
“We are seeing a kind of divided market — almost like exports to Asia-Pacific and Europe.
two markets,” al-Ghais said. “One market with promising Somo has raised the April formula price for Basrah Medium
growth, and the other with a slowdown.” to its core Asia-Pacific market by 95¢/bl on the month, while
Opec and its non-Opec partners, known collectively as the April Basrah Heavy price has been lifted by $1.95/bl. Rival

iNDUSTRY news
state-controlled Saudi Aramco increased the April prices of its ($1.6bn). A source has since told Argus that the agreed purchase
comparable Arab Medium and Arab Heavy grades for its Asia- price is €1.2bn and that completion is more likely to be in April.
Pacific customers by 90¢/bl and $2.50/bl, respectively. "The government’s ‘golden power’ committee met with
Somo has raised the April prices of its Europe-bound GOI managers on Monday last week to hear their plans for
exports of Basrah Medium and Basrah Heavy by $1.25/bl and Priolo and is expected to take a decision by March 27," the
$1.75/bl, respectively, but it has left the formula price of source said, adding GOI's offer was the only one on the table.
Kirkuk blend to Europe unchanged at a $1.45/bl discount to the The right-wing government of Giorgia Meloni recently intro-
North Sea Dated benchmark. Somo combines northwest Europe duced measures to extend special “golden powers” that can be
and the Mediterranean into one marketing area, while rival activated to protect companies deemed strategic, effectively
Mideast Gulf producers issue separate prices for those regions. paving the way for a sale of the refinery on conditions.
Somo's European prices are broadly in line with the The deal ended months of uncertainty about the future
month-on-month adjustments implemented by Aramco. For of Priolo. Sanctions against Russia, imposed because of
northwest European customers, the Saudi company raised Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, left Lukoil unable to secure
the April price of Arab Medium and Arab Heavy by $1.30/bl loans from banks to buy non-Russian crude, threatening the
each compared to March. For Mediterranean-bound exports, plant with closure. Priolo is one of Italy’s biggest refineries
Aramco implemented a $1.00/bl and $1.30/bl month-on- accounting for around 20pc of the country's refining capac-
month increase for Arab Medium and Arab Heavy, respec- ity. It employs around 1,000 workers directly, and 10,000
tively, on both fob Sidi Kerir and fob Ras Tanura sale terms. indirectly, in what is one of Italy's poorer regions.
Somo has lifted the April Basrah Medium price for its US Italy’s industry minister Adolfo Urso said on 7 March that
customers by 30¢/bl on the month, but it has left the prices of he has given the head of the Sicilian region assurances on the
US-bound Basrah Heavy and Kirkuk unchanged. Aramco left the procedures under way “to guarantee the continuity of the in-
prices of all its April-loading crude exports to the US unchanged. dustrial hub at Priolo”. As part of its plans to buy Priolo, GOI
By Kuganiga Kuganeswaran has joined forces with Israel’s biggest refiner Bazan to access
technology to transform the plant and, crucially, with trading
BTC Blend crude exports to rise in April firm Trafigura to ensure secure crude supply to the refinery
April exports of BTC Blend crude have been scheduled at and a guaranteed outlet for its refined products.
614,000 b/d, up by 20pc from March. The source said GOI's mid-to-long-term intention is to re-
Azerbaijan's state-owned Socar is due to load 472,000 duce Priolo's carbon footprint and transform it into a green
b/d next month, 21pc higher than this month. BP's BTC Blend refinery, drawing on Bazan's technology and know-how. GOI's
exports are scheduled to fall by 5pc to 60,000 b/d over the chief executive Michael Bobrov is also chief executive of
same period, while Turkey's TPAO's loadings are due to de- Green Oil Energy, which is the major shareholder of Bazan,
cline by 66pc to 21,000 b/d. Finally, Hungary's Mol loadings operator of Israel's 197,000 b/d Haifa refinery.
are due to decline by 5pc to 20,000 b/d. “The uninterrupted operation of the refinery in combina-
The month on month drop will be capped by the return tion with the operation of the 530MW power plant and the
of Exxon and Norway's Equinor to the loading schedule. They development of new renewables facilities in the refinery area
are due to export 20,000 b/d and 22,000 b/d in April, having will help improve Italy’s energy security,” the source said.
been absent from the March programme. GOI believes Sicily’s strategic position in the Mediterra-
By Edmundo Alfaro nean could transform the area into an energy hub, allowing
it to play a key role in the energy transition, the source said.
Priolo refinery sale on track for April By Stephen Jewkes
The Italian government is set to give its final blessing to the
sale of the 320,000 b/d Priolo refinery in Sicily at the end of Crude receipts slowed at Omisalj in February
this month, paving the way for the deal to be closed in April, Crude imports at the Croatian port of Omisalj slowed on the
according to a source familiar with the matter. month in February and appear to have a weak momentum
In January Russian firm Lukoil agreed to sell the refinery to this month.
GOI Energy, which is the energy sector arm of a Cyprus-based Imports were a little over 115,000 b/d in February down
private equity fund. Employees had indicated that the deal from 170,000 b/d in January and 175,000 b/d in December, ac-
would close on 31 March, with the price tag pegged at €1.5bn cording to Argus tracking. Imports were 120,000 b/d in 2022.

iNDUSTRY news
Receipts are being tempered as the 90,000 b/d Rijeka gies has decided to cut its 2023 investment in UK offshore oil
refinery served by the terminal is undergoing works. It and gas projects by 25pc, while the UK North Sea’s biggest
will not restart until May. The terminal is also the start of producer, Harbour Energy, began a review of its UK business
the 400,000 b/d Adria pipeline that connects to Hungarian in January.
integrated Mol's 161,000 b/d Szazhalombatta refinery and its The UK will be reliant on imports “for at least 80pc of its
Slovakian 115,000 b/d Bratislava refinery, as well as Serbia's gas and 70pc of its oil by 2030 if there is no investment in
96,000 b/d Pancevo refinery. new infrastructure,” OEUK said.
Imports in February comprised 40,000 b/d of Iraqi Kirkuk By Aydin Calik and Jon Mainwaring
and 75,000 b/d of Caspian CPC Blend. Kirkuk was the largest
supplier to Omisalj in 2022, but at just 35,000 b/d. Since Barclays cuts 2023 crude price forecasts
December deliveries of Kirkuk have risen with 145,000 b/d Analysts at UK-based bank Barclays today said they have
delivered in January and 105,000 b/d in December. cut their forecasts for global crude prices this year, based
The increase came following the EU ban on Russian crude broadly on a greater resilience in Russian production.
imports, which began on 5 December. Mol spoke last month Barclays said it now expects Brent to average $92/bl and
to say it was eyeing diversifying its crude intake away from WTI $87/bl, respective cuts of $6/bl and $7/bl from its previ-
Russian grades at Szazhalombatta and Bratislava. ous forecast. For 2024 it expects Brent at $97/bl and WTI at
Russian Urals deliveries to Omisalj increased to more $92/bl.
than 20,000 b/d in 2022 from around 5,000 b/d in 2021. Con- "We estimate that the market is running a supply surplus
signments of Russian Arctic crude also rose to a little under of about 0.8mn b/d currently, which we expect to flip into
15,000 b/d from 10,000 b/d. a deficit of about 0.5mn b/d in [the second half], as the
Argus assessed Omisalj's February crude imports at a reopening-led recovery in China matures and non-Opec+ sup-
weighted average of 41.5°API and 1pc sulphur content, com- ply growth slows," Barclays said.
pared with 37.2°API and 1.8pc sulphur in January. Supplies It said it has been surprised at Russian supply, although it
averaged 35.7°API and 1pc sulphur in 2022, a little heavier said there are some signs that it is coming under pressure. It
than the 2021 average of 37.3°API and 1pc sulphur, largely a expects US output growth to be slower, but for overall pro-
result of the increase in Urals shipments. duction levels to be more resilient. The bank said it expects
Momentum appears weak in March. Nothing has unloaded Opec+ to maintain its co-operation.
so far and a 950,000bl cargo of Azeri BTC Blend is the only On demand, Barclays said it sees a "somewhat improved"
tanker signalling arrival, slated to arrive tomorrow. outlook for the US and Europe, although it trimmed 200,000
By Adam Porter b/d from its forecast for full-year growth in China.
By Ben Winkley
Industry repeats UK windfall tax warning
Offshore industry body OEUK has reiterated its concerns Gazpromneft plans stable crude runs
about the UK government’s windfall tax on oil and gas prof- Gazpromneft plans to run its domestic refineries at close
its, pointing to new research from the University of Aber- to capacity this year despite uncertainty about demand for
deen that says the levy is likely to deter new investment in Russian products since the 5 February EU ban on imports.
the country's upstream sector. Russia’s third-largest refiner aims to keep crude runs
"This report is a stark reminder that the windfall tax stable at its 430,000 b/d Omsk and 240,000 b/d Moscow
and the uncertainty it brings is ultimately bad for business," refineries, as well as the 365,000 b/d Yaroslavl plant —
OEUK's sustainability and policy director Mike Tholen said. co-owned with Rosneft — Gazpromneft refining director
The UK's Energy Profits Levy (EPL) rose from 25pc to Oleg Vedernikov tells parent company Gazprom’s corporate
35pc in January this year, which OEUK says increases the magazine.
effective tax rate on the offshore industry to 75pc. The or- But products output will rise in 2023, boosted by
ganisation says the rate is so high “it risks driving companies completed plant upgrades, Vedernikov adds. The company
out of UK waters and towards more attractive opportunities increased domestic throughputs by 3.7pc to 41mn t (820,000
elsewhere.” b/d) last year.
Some North Sea operators have already begun to rethink Gazpromneft’s refinery modernisation programme
their spending plans in response to the tax rise. TotalEner- remains unchanged, Vedernikov says, despite the loss of sev-

iNDUSTRY news
eral subcontractors and restrictions on equipment supplies and Venezuela fell to zero in January, while Repsol increased
because of EU and US sanctions on Russia. receipts from its heavy crude production in Colombia, with
The firm is completing construction of the 8.4mn t/yr imports from the country doubling on the month to 71,000 b/d.
ELOU-AVT crude unit at Omsk, which should be commis- Medium sour crudes were in demand after a 53,000
sioned later this year — to replace six older primary process- b/d increase in receipts of Saudi blends to 105,000 b/d in
ing units that will be gradually phased out. At Moscow, Gaz- January from December more than offset a 34,000 b/d fall
promneft is focused on building a deep conversion complex, in receipts from Iraq to 33,000 b/d, while a near threefold
for completion in 2025, including a 2.4mn t/yr delayed coker increase in imports from Kazakhstan to 147,000 b/d was
and a 2mn t/yr vacuum gasoil hydrocracker. boosted by shipments of Kazahk Urals blend or Kebco.
Overall, Russian refiners may have to reduce through- Nigeria, Spain’s largest crude supplier in 2022, came second
puts this year as they adapt to the loss of EU markets and to Mexico in January with volumes increasing by 43,000 b/d to
redirect products to alternative buyers. Russian refinery 152,000 b/d, while receipts from Equatorial Guinea fell to zero
runs fell by 3pc to around 272mn t last year, according to and imports from Angola fell by 33,000 b/d to 63,000 b/d.
deputy prime minister Alexander Novak. And throughputs Among other suppliers of lighter sweeter blends, Imports
were down by several percent in February, he said recently, from the North Sea were steady on the month while from
without giving an outright figure. the US they increased by 44,000 b/d to 149,000 b/d.
By Jonathan Gleave
Spain’s crude imports steady in January
Spanish crude imports were steady in January, at around Tullow Oil returned to profit in 2022
four-month highs, as receipts from key supplier countries UK-listed upstream independent Tullow Oil said today it returned
such as Mexico, Nigeria and the US rose to offset lower vol- to profit in 2022, reflecting the higher prices for its production.
umes from smaller producers. The company made a profit of $49.1mn, compared with a
Refiners kept crude runs high to lock in robust margins. loss of $80.7mn in 2021. Sales revenues increased by around
Repsol was reporting margins over $22/bl at its complex 40pc year on year to $1.78bn, meaning it was able to absorb
Spanish refineries in the first six weeks of 2023. Cepsa’s a $391.2mn impairment and still make a profit. The charge
refineries, which take lighter and sweeter crudes, have been was related to the downward revision of reserves at the
reporting margins of over $10/bl since the start of the year. Tweneboa, Enyenra and Ntomme (Ten) fields offshore Ghana.
Imports likely dipped in February on a full month of Tullow reiterated the production figures for 2022 and
maintenance on a 90,000 b/d crude distillation unit at Rep- forecast for 2023 it gave in January. It forecast capital ex-
sol’s 220,000 b/d Bilbao refinery from 16 January to 3 March, penditure (capex) of $400mn for this year, up from $354mn
but should be recovering this month supported by ongoing in 2022, or which 75pc will be in Ghana where it operates
margin strength and only minor maintenance on heavy oil the Jubilee field as well as Ten.
conversion units at Bilbao and Tarragona expected before It will reduce spending on exploration and appraisal to
the second quarter of the year. around $30mn, from $45mn. This will be on its non-operated
Crude receipts fell by just 6,000 b/d to 1.292mn b/d in production interests in Gabon and Ivory Coast and on pros-
January from December while the number of supplier coun- pects in Argentina and Guyana. It is still seeking a partner
tries fell to 18 from 22, according to state-owned petroleum for Kenya's 120,000 b/d South Lokichar oil project.
reserves agency Cores. Tullow said today its free cash flow (FCF) rose to $267mn
Receipts were 6pc higher than a year earlier and 10pc in 2022, from $245mn a year earlier. It forecasts FCF at
above pre-pandemic levels in January 2020, but about 200,000 $200mn this year should crude prices be $100/bl, or $100mn
b/d below Spanish nameplate crude distillation capacity. at $80/bl. It ended 2022 with net debt of $1.86bn, compared
Mexico remained Spain’s largest crude supplier with with $2.13bn a year earlier.
receipts of 160,000 b/d arriving from the country, up from By Ben Winkley
143,000 b/d in December after Repsol said it has managed to
secure higher volumes of heavy sour Maya blend in January- US crude stocks fell by 1.7mn bl last week
March than October-December. Cepsa continued to take US crude inventories last week fell by 1.7mn bl to 478.5mn
about 35,000 b/d of lighter sour Isthmus blend. bl as production eased, according to the Energy Information
Volumes from other suppliers of heavy sour crudes Canada Administration (EIA).

iNDUSTRY news
Stocks at the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma during PHMSA deputy administrator Tristan Brown, at a congres-
the week ended 3 March fell to 39.8mn bl, down by 890,000 sional hearing today, cited a proposed penalty last year of
bl from the prior week. $986,400 against the 2.5mn b/d Colonial Pipeline for alleged
Crude inventories at the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve failures that prevented a switch to manual operations after a
(SPR) were unchanged at 371.6mn bl. SPR stocks are not in- ransomware attack in 2021.
cluded in the overall EIA commercial crude inventory figures. Brown questioned if that penalty amount was "going to
US crude imports last week increased by 63,000 b/d to dissuade a company that is valued in the billions. Intuitively,
6.27mn b/d, while exports slid to 3.36mn b/d, down by 2.27mn I would think not." The circumstances with the Colonial
b/d from the prior week when they reached a record high. Pipeline were "particularly egregious" because the agency
Domestic crude output slid by 100,000 b/d to 12.2mn b/d flagged some of the issues before the attack, he said.
after previously reaching the highest level since April 2020. "We'd actually given the company a heads up, 'Hey,
US refiners processed about 14.97mn b/d of crude last week, you've got to fix this,' and they chose not to," Brown said.
down by 12,000 b/d from the prior week. Refinery utilization Colonial did not immediately respond to a request for
rates on average rose to 86pc from 85.8pc a week earlier. comment.
Gasoline inventories last week fell by 1.1mn bl to Colonial, in a 13 January filing, asked PHMSA to withdraw
238.1mn bl and are about 3pc below the five-year average $846,300 of the proposed penalty, which it said was unwar-
for this time of year. ranted and unsupported by the law or previous enforcement
precedent.
ANS output up as Valdez inventories climb PHMSA is continuing to receive bipartisan criticism on
Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude production climbed by Capitol Hill over its pace in completing regulations. PHMSA
1.5pc in the latest week as inventories at the Port of Valdez has been working on one rule related to the classification of
jumped almost 20pc and US west coast stocks dwindled. pipelines for more than 20 years, and another rule related to
ANS production was 497,291 b/d in the week ending 3 LNG safety for more than 30 years.
March, up from 490,099 b/d on 27 February, according to "It's a bit embarrassing, don't you think?" representative
data released by the Alaska Department of Revenue. The Marc Molinaro (R-New York) asked.
volume of ANS in transit dropped almost 16pc to 4.7mn b/d Brown said PHMSA was prioritizing rules with the largest
from 5.6mn b/d the week prior, according to Energy Informa- safety effects because of limited resources and new respon-
tion Administration (EIA). Inventories at the Port of Valdez, sibilities, including additional congressional pressure to write
the main terminus of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, grew 18pc to safety rules related to the transportation of carbon dioxide
3.28mn bl from 2.67mn bl the prior week. and clean hydrogen.
Stocks across the west coast fell almost 6pc to 49mn b/d, By Chris Knight
according to an EIA weekly report. West coast refinery runs
climbed by 1.5pc to 1.9mn b/d, with plants running at a 78pc US to offer $6bn to decarbonize industry
utilization rate, up from 77.8pc the week earlier. President Joe Biden's administration today said it will offer
ANS for front-month delivery this week has been selling $6bn in funding for projects to curb greenhouse gas emis-
at a $3.01/bl premium to the CMA Ice Brent contract, widen- sions from energy-intensive industries, including the steel,
ing from the $2.58/bl premium a month earlier. iron and cement sectors.
By Gordon Pollock The funding, much of it from last year's Inflation Reduc-
tion Act (IRA), will help retrofit existing facilities or build
US weighs tougher pipeline violation fines first-of-a-kind commercial-scale projects. The administration
President Joe Biden's administration is asking lawmakers to expects the funding will reduce the amount of time needed
consider steeper penalties on oil and gas pipelines that fall to decarbonize the US’ industrial sector, which is responsible
short in following safety and operating standards. for a third of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.
The US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Admin- "The amount of funding that we're pouring in now is
istration (PHMSA) under existing law can seek civil penalties unprecedented," US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm said
of up to $2.4mn from pipeline operators for a related series at the CERAWeek conference by S&P Global in Houston. "It's
of violations. That might not be a sufficient amount to influ- an opportunity to really accelerate transformational projects
ence behavior of large companies, agency leaders say. for the industrial sector."

iNDUSTRY news
The US Energy Department said the funding will be di- back to November 2022 levels.
vided up among as many as 65 projects in industrial sectors January's decline was driven by decreases in rail inter-
such as iron, steel, aluminum, cement and concrete. Those modal, water, air and pipeline freight while rail carload and
industries are among the most difficult to decarbonize be- trucking freight experienced gains.
cause of their high energy demands and traditional reliance Several other manufacturing indexes, including the
on carbon-based feedstocks. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index
The largest federal funding awards, expected to range and the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production (IP) index,
as high as $500mn each, will go to large-scale retrofits of were either unchanged or had small decreases in January,
existing facilities. Smaller awards will go to upgrading single potentially signaling a mild contraction in overall manufac-
product lines. Other grants, expected to reach $250mn, will turing activity.
go to build entirely new commercial-scale plants using new By Gordon Pollock
technologies.
Project applications must commit to funding at least Alberta AWB bitumen output down in January
50pc of the cost of their projects themselves. Production of Access Western Blend (AWB) crude in Alberta
Project developers will have until 21 April to submit con- declined to a four-month low in January, according to data
cept papers that broadly describe their projects, with full from the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER).
applications then due on 4 August. Total bitumen production from Canadian Natural Re-
The Energy Department expects to select the winning sources’ (CNRL) Jackfish project and MEG Energy’s Christina
proposals by next winter. Lake project fell to 220,000 b/d in January, down from
The universe of projects the administration may consider 227,000 b/d in the month prior. This compares to bitumen
for funding is “not super defined,” Granholm said. The goal output of 216,000 b/d in January 2022.
is to support investments in new technologies or processes MEG Energy’s Christina Lake project decreased output to
that can be replicated elsewhere. That willingness to experi- 105,000 b/d in January, down from 107,000 b/d in December,
ment will enable project developers to test new methods to but up from 99,000 b/d in the same month a year prior.
decarbonize hard-to-abate industrial sectors. Production from CNRL’s Jackfish project fell to 115,000 b/d in
"We want to fund the folks who raised their hand with January. This compares to bitumen output of 120,000 b/d in the
projects that we can learn from, that perhaps take existing month prior and 117,000 b/d in the same month a year before.
facilities and retrofit, or maybe want to try something new," The bitumen extracted from these projects is destined
Granholm said. to become AWB. January’s bitumen output will be com-
In addition to outright funding, the IRA includes billions bined with about 110,000 b/d of condensate to create about
of dollars in tax credits and subsidies for investments in ad- 330,000 b/d of marketable AWB “dilbit” crude, which will be
vanced manufacturing facilities and products such as clean sold at Hardisty and Edmonton, Alberta.
hydrogen that can be used in hard-to-abate sectors. Gran- AWB typically trades at a discount to Western Canadian
holm said the 10-year duration of many of those tax credits Select (WCS) and has an API of approximately 22°.
would provide developers certainty to make investments. The CNRL and MEG projects are about 100 miles (161km)
"You now have 10 years of IRA carrots that you can take south of Fort McMurray, Alberta.
to the bank," Granholm said. "That's certainty." By Sam Duffy
By Chris Knight
PetroEcuador re-issues crude tenders
US freight volumes see January dip: BTS Ecuadorean state-owned PetroEcuador has re-issued two
US freight volumes declined in January, according to the canceled tenders to sell Napo and Oriente crude after this
Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). week lifting a force majeure on exports.
The BTS-published Freight Transportation Services Index The company is offering to sell six cargoes of heavy sour
(TSI) fell by 0.7pc in January, down from a year earlier to Napo crude totaling 2.16mn bl for April loading out of the
137.8, and also 0.2pc lower than in December 2022. OCP terminal in Esmeraldas, Ecuador, and five cargoes of
This was the fourth decline in seven months, sitting medium sour Oriente totaling 1.8mn bl for loading the same
2.4pc below its August 2019 all-time high. The freight index month out of the Balao terminal.
had risen in December, but declines in January set the index Bids are due 21 March and will remain valid through

iNDUSTRY news
23 March. not lead to any disruptions but is a chance for both sellers
The previous tenders had offered 1.44mn bl each of and buyers to review terms.
Oriente and Napo for loading in late March but were can- But Prates does hope for a review of recent taxes that
celed after a landslide in Napo province led to the preventa- Brazil imposed on crude exports for four months. The move
tive halt of pumping on two major pipelines and postponed will not likely be successful in increasing refinery run rates,
roughly 4mn bl of crude exports. and could lead to increased diesel imports in refineries not
The 360,000 b/d Sote pipeline — operated by PetroEc- calibrated to best run the domestic mix.
uador — and the 450,000 b/d OCP pipeline — operated by a "We think this will be temporary," Prates said, adding he
consortium of private producers — stopped on 22 February. favor dialogues first, and that the oil producer associations
Sote restarted operations on 28 February and OCP on 2 March would be the ones to decide on whether to file legal com-
after the companies built a temporary suspension system. plaints again the policy.
PetroEcuador lifted the force majeure earlier this week. By Carla Bass
By Amanda Hilow
Emerald asks to end Colombia contract
Petrobras to shift focus of fuel pricing Emerald Energy has asked Colombia to let it end its contract
Petrobras will refocus its fuel pricing policy to use inter- to produce oil there after local groups destroyed much of
national prices as a reference — rather than aim for parity the infrastructure at its Capella oil field and held police and
— but the change will be more rhetorical than fundamental, workers captive.
chief executive Jean Paul Prates said. The subsidiary of China's state-controlled Sinochem made
The Brazilian state-controlled oil company under the the request in a letter to the national hydrocarbon agency
country's previous president Jair Bolsonaro had focused on ANH, mines and energy minister Irene Velez said yesterday.
what it called import parity pricing, based on international Rural indigenous groups in Colombia set fire to the oil
references. Prates had committed to continuing to use these field facilities on 2 March and held a dozen police officers
references after he took over under new President Luiz and nine workers hostage for two days.
Inacio "Lula" da Silva in January, but he differentiated it with The ministry of mines and energy and ANH are talking
a new focus on international pricing. with the company and the Chinese embassy, Velez said.
With import parity, it is "imposing on the market" a price The field in the southern province of Caqueta produces
set across the globe, he said at the CERAWeek by S&P Global 2,000 b/d of heavy oil equivalent (boe/d), Colombia’s oil
conference in Houston, Texas. "It doesn't make sense. Other- chamber ACP told Argus. The field was blocked by local
wise, no country would run after being an oil producer." groups for the past 40 days. Emerald also has 24,000 bls of
He emphasizes that "Petrobras' policy is not Brazil's crude stored on the site.
policy," and that the government of the new leftist president The Colombian petroleum association said last week that
has not intervened in pricing decisions in the company. Emerald was mulling leaving the country.
"We will manage our price the best way for the company, A deterioration of security conditions in Colombia has
and that is fair," he said. led several oil companies to halt activities. Since 16 Janu-
Petrobras will aim to become a vertically integrated, ary, Parex had suspended part of its production at its Arauca
global energy leader, while the company under Bolsonaro operations amid threats by the guerrilla group ELN. The
had looked to sell assets, including refineries, a plan that suspension also affects drilling and maintenance of oil fields.
Lula said he opposed. Colombia is negotiating a peace process with the ELN,
Brazil's government in early March asked Petrobras to but there is not a ceasefire in place during the talks.
freeze asset sales for 90 days, a move that Prates said will By Diana Delgado

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Argus Crude (2023-03-08)

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Argus Crude

Crude market prices and analysis

Issue 23-47 | Wednesday 8 March 2023

Crude markets at a glance $/bl

Mideast Gulf Basis Diff Bid Ask Change

West Africa Basis Diff Bid Ask Change

Key benchmarks $/bl

French strikes block refineries for 2nd day

Key spreads $/bl

Dated vs Nsea Forward mth 2 -1.27 1.09 5.0

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 2 of 40

Issue Ref: 553642

US Gulf Coast and Midcontinent

ASCI Apr Apr WTI -0.70 75.96

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 3 of 40

US Gulf Coast and Midcontinent

WTI Cushing Apr 76.64 76.68 76.66 77.87 0.15

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 4 of 40

Midland-quality WTI at the US Gulf reversed an eight-day Argus AGS $/bl

benchmark at Cushing, Oklahoma, as futures prices declined.

Russian crude production. The WTI forecast was decreased

AGS Marker﻿ $/bl AGS index diff to Nymex WTI﻿ $/bl

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 5 of 40

WTI fob USGC Prompt Apr CMA Nymex +1.97/+2.37 78.79-79.19

1-10 M1 Apr Apr WTI Houston +0.40/+0.75 +0.58

Anticipated US crude export cargoes — 15-45 days forward

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 6 of 40

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 7 of 40

lifting a force majeure on exports. Colombia

a consortium of private producers — stopped on 22 Febru- Olmeca

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 8 of 40

Canada domestic $/bl

Canada domestic $/bl Canada waterborne prices $/bl

CDB Apr CMA Nym -16.50/-16.00 60.32-60.82

Cold Lake Apr CMA Nym -15.60/-15.10 61.22-61.72

Condensate Apr CMA Nym +3.85/+4.35 80.67-81.17 5

LSB Apr CMA Nym -3.95/-3.45 72.87-73.37

LLB Apr CMA Nym -15.10/-13.20 61.72-63.62

was capped by a regulator and US Canadian crude imports -1

increased with just over a week remaining in the April trade -2

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 9 of 40

North Sea Dated

North Sea Dated calculation $/bl North Sea flat price

82.60 82.80 Brent

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Delivered northwest Europe assessments

70 *Period 1 covers cargoes arriving at Rotterdam from 12 days forward to one

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 11 of 40

TotalEnergies said all loadings and deliveries were Sulphur 0.30

Argus alternative Dated illustration

Basis Diff Price ±

Argus Dated Average May +1.36 84.190 -1.660

Dated to Ice Brent frontline, London close

30 Apr -0.28 -0.20 -0.10

20 1Qc" +0.23 +0.31 -0.04

2Qc" +0.25 +0.33 -0.01

10 Ice Bwave, 7 Mar 23

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 12 of 40

ARGUS BRENT SOUR

Argus Brent Sour calculation $/bl Components of Argus Brent Sour

Johan Sverdrup fob Mongstad 82.09 -1.00 81.09 81.00

Alternative North Sea Dated illustrations

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 13 of 40

Azerbaijan's state-run Socar was said to have offloaded fob Russia

Crude markets at a glance $/bl

Key benchmarks $/bl

Key spreads $/bl

AGS Marker $/bl AGS index diff to Nymex WTI $/bl

Argus Brent Sour calculation $/bl Components of Argus Brent Sour

Oman vs Dubai $/bl

Pyrenees $/bl Minas $/bl

Tapis vs Minas $/bl Urals fob Primorsk vs ESPO Blend $/bl

ESPO Blend vs ANS USWC $/bl Azeri Light vs Tapis $/bl

Industry statistics ’000 b/d US refinery inputs ’000 b/d

US crude imports ’000 b/d