Argus Crude (2023-03-09) PDF

Argus Crude
Crude market prices and analysis
Issue 23-48 | Thursday 9 March 2023
Crude markets at a glance $/bl

Europe Basis Diff Bid Ask Change
North Sea Dated May Nsea -0.49 82.87 82.93 +0.66 t
Ice Brent mth 1 May 81.59 -1.07 u
Argus Brent Sour Dated -1.08 81.79 81.85 +0.73 t
WTI cif R'dam period 2 Dated +1.95 84.82 84.88 +0.66 t
Johan Sverdrup Dated -1.00 81.87 81.93 +0.66 t
North America Basis Diff Outright Change Russia Basis Diff Bid Ask Change
Nymex WTI mth 1 Apr 75.72 -0.94 u Urals fob Primorsk Dated -35.50 47.37 47.43 +0.66 t
WTI Midland Apr WTI +1.75 77.47 -0.78 u ESPO fob Apr Dubai swaps -9.00 71.69 71.79 -0.17 u
WTI Houston Apr WTI +1.94 77.66 -0.77 u
Mars Apr WTI -0.32 75.40 -0.72 u Delivered China Basis Diff Bid Ask Change
WCS Houston Apr CMA Nymex -8.38 67.47 -0.72 u Tupi Aug Ice Brent +3.00 84.24 84.84 -0.31 u
Mideast Gulf Basis Diff Bid Ask Change

Dubai May 81.67 81.77 -0.34 u
Oman May 81.76 81.86 -0.23 u
Murban May 82.85 82.95 nc 34
West Africa Basis Diff Bid Ask Change

Latin America Basis Diff Bid Ask Change Qua Iboe Dated +1.10 83.97 84.03 +0.06 t
Vasconia Jun WTI -0.99 74.69 75.09 -1.10 u Girassol Dated +2.40 85.27 85.33 +0.66 t
Castilla Jun WTI -8.99 66.39 67.39 -1.10 u Doba Dated -1.00 81.87 81.93 +0.66 t
LLS vs Mars $/bl

Benchmarks fall 12
April Nymex WTI today fell by 94¢/bl to $75.72/bl while May 11 Mars = 0
Ice Brent fell by $1.07/bl to $81.59/bl. The May Brent-May 10
WTI spread widened to $5.75/bl.
9
8
7
Top headlines hh
6
5
Peru aims for mid-year Talara refinery restart
4
French downstream strikes continue
3
Rising water levels lower Rhine freight rates
2
9 Sep 22 7 Nov 22 9 Jan 23 9 Mar 23
Contents
WTI vs Brent forward curve $/bl
Key spreads 2
US Gulf Coast and Midcontinent 3 ICE Brent Nymex WTI
Latin America 8 85
Canada9
80
North Sea Dated 10-13
Russia-Caspian14-15 75
Mediterranean16
West Africa 17 70
Mideast Gulf 18-19
Asia-Pacific 20-22 65
Official prices 23
Futures and forward markets 24 60
Daily netbacks 25
55
Deals done 26-28
May 2023 Jun 2024 Jul 2025 Aug 2026 Sep 2027 Sep 2028
News and announcements 29
Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Available on the Argus Publications App
Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-48 | Thursday 9 March 2023
Key spreads $/bl

Spread ± Ice Brent month 1 vs Nymex WTI $/bl
Interregional Spreads 8
Transatlantic WTI = 0
Ice Brent vs Nymex WTI mth 1 +6.03 0.21
7
North Sea Dated vs WTI fob Houston +4.86 1.61
Argus Brent Sour vs ASCI +6.72 1.59
Qua Iboe vs WTI Houston +6.34 0.83 6
Atlantic Basin to Asia
Brent-Dubai EFS +2.93 -0.20 hh
5
Forties vs Murban +0.14 0.65
Qua Iboe vs Kimanis -6.70 -0.60
Americas to Asia 4
WTI Houston vs Kimanis -13.04 -1.43
ANS USWC vs ESPO fob +7.37 -0.94
3
Mars vs Oman -6.41 -0.49
Regional Spreads 12 Dec 22 10 Jan 23 07 Feb 23 07 Mar 23
Americas pipeline
WTI Houston vs WTI Midland +0.19 0.01
WTI Houston vs Mars +2.26 -0.05
Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) m1 $/bl
WTL Midland vs WTI Midland -0.45 0.09 10.0
WTS vs WTI Midland -1.00 0.66
WCS Hardisty vs WCS Houston -6.72 -0.25
9.0
WCS Cushing vs WCS Houston -1.27 0.21 8.0
Americas waterborne
WTI fob Houston vs Ekofisk -7.06 -1.61 7.0
WTI cif Rotterdam vs CPC cif Med +5.20 -0.10
6.0
North Sea hh
Dated vs Nsea Forward mth 2 -0.23 1.04 5.0

Nsea forwards mth 1 vs mth 3 +0.70 -0.06
Asia-Pacific
4.0
Dubai mth 1 vs mth 3 +1.82 -0.20 3.0
Murban cfr China vs WTI del NE Asia -0.45 0.48
Oman cfr China vs ESPO fob +13.08 0.29 2.0
12 Sep 22 9 Nov 22 9 Jan 23 9 Mar 23
Mars vs WTI $/bl
1 Dubai month 1 vs month 3 $/bl
WTI = 0
0 3
Month 3 = 0
-1
-2
2
hh
-3
-4 hh
1
-5
-6
9 Sep 22 7 Nov 22 9 Jan 23 9 Mar 23
0
12 Dec 22 11 Jan 23 10 Feb 23
Announcement
Announcement
All data change announcements can be viewed online at
www.argusmedia.com/announcements. The holiday calendar showing which Argus reports are not
Alternatively, to be added to the email distribution list for published on which days is now available online
all announcements, please email: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/methodology/publishing-
datahelp@argusmedia.com. schedule
.
Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 2 of 40

Issue Ref: 553642

US Gulf Coast and Midcontinent
WTI regional prices and spreads $/bl Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI™) $/bl
Month Basis Diff Price
ASCI Apr Apr WTI -0.62 75.10

Cushing: 75.72
CMA Nymex + Argus
ASCI 2 Apr -0.62 75.18
WTI diff to CMA
-1.75
pete at other locations.
+1.94
Elsewhere in the US, Bakken crude traded in the Beau-
mont/Nederland area at a much narrower differential to WTI
Midland: 77.47 Houston than the average from the prior trade month.
Bakken traded at a $2/bl premium to the concurrent
+0.19
Cushing benchmark as well as the CMA Nymex + WTI diff to
Houston:
77.66 CMA for April delivery, while April WTI Houston saw a$1.94/
Apr delivery bl weighted-average premium to the WTI Formula Basis.
For March trade, Bakken in the Houston area averaged
a $2.74/bl premium to the WTI Formula Basis, while WTI
Houston averaged a $2.41/bl premium.
Heavy sour Canadian crude differentials to the CMA Nymex Bakken Cushing traded at a $1.10/bl premium to the CMA
WTI rebounded this session in Houston, Texas, and Cushing, Nymex + WTI diff to CMA this session, unchanged compared
Oklahoma, after crude at both locations had widened their with Wednesday.
discounts to the basis by roughly 70¢/bl on Wednesday. In other news, the US Energy Department has conducted
The WCS Houston assessment in Houston, which includes its last scheduled sale from the US Strategic Petroleum
both Cold Lake and WCS transactions, saw trade this session Reserve (SPR) until 2026 through an auction of 26mn bl of
at discounts between $8.50-$8.35/bl under the CMA Nymex sweet crude. A total of 6mn bl was sold for April delivery
WTI. The assessment's weighted-average discount narrowed from the Big Hill site near Beaumont, Texas.
by 25¢/bl.
In Cushing, the WCS assessment saw trade reported be-
tween $9.75-$9.50/bl beneath the basis, with the weighted- Assessment rationale
average discount narrower by 46¢/bl. The minimum volume was met and volume-weighted average
Both locations saw heavy sour Canadian crude trade calculated according to the methodology for Bakken Cushing
wider against the basis by about 70¢/bl on Wednesday. month, Mars, Poseidon, Southern Green Canyon, WCS Cush-
Ecuadorean state-owned PetroEcuador reissued two ing, WCS Houston, WTI Diff to CMA Nymex, WTI Houston,
canceled tenders on 8 March to sell Napo and Oriente crude, WTI Midland Enterprise, WTI Midland, WTL Midland and
after lifting a force majeure on exports, which was declared WTS.
on 24 February. The Bakken at Clearbrook assessment was set on the basis of
The company is offering to sell six cargoes of heavy sour fresh trade.
Napo crude totaling 2.16mn bl for April loading from the OCP In the absence of sufficient transaction information for LLS,
terminal in Esmeraldas, Ecuador, and five cargoes of medium market value was assessed using intelligent judgment ac-
sour Oriente totaling 1.8mn bl for loading the same month cording to the methodology.
out of the Balao terminal.
The previous tenders had offered 1.44mn bl each of Ori-
ente and Napo for loading in late March but were canceled
after a landslide in Napo province led to the preventative
shut-down of two major pipelines and postponed roughly
4mn bl of crude exports.
While Ecuadorean sour crude does not typically compete
with sour crudes at the US Gulf coast directly, it can com-

US Gulf Coast and Midcontinent
WTI $/bl
WTI formula WTI formula Roll to next
Timing Low High
basis price basis MTD month
WTI Cushing Apr 75.70 75.74 75.72 77.63 0.12

WTI Cushing May 75.82 75.86 75.84 0.04
WTI Cushing Jun 75.86 75.90 -0.14
WTI Cushing Jul 75.72 75.76
Timing Price WTI Nymex spread
CMA Nymex Apr 75.85 -0.13
CMA Nymex May 75.84 0.00
CMA Nymex Jun 75.63
CMA Nymex Jul 75.30
Diff Diff MTD MTD
Weighted
Timing Basis Diff low Diff high weighted weighted Low High weighted
average
average average average
Argus AGS Marker Apr 77.55 77.70 77.59 79.49
Argus AGS Apr Apr WTI +1.83 +1.98 +1.87 +1.86 77.55 77.70 77.59
WTI Houston Apr Apr WTI +1.90 +2.05 +1.94 +1.93 77.62 77.77 77.66
WTI Houston May May WTI +1.85 +2.05 +1.95 +1.95 77.69 77.89 77.79
WTI Midland Apr Apr WTI +1.70 +1.80 +1.75 +1.74 77.42 77.52 77.47
WTI Midland May May WTI +1.65 +1.70 +1.68 +1.68 77.49 77.54 77.52
WTI Midland Enterprise Apr Apr WTI +1.70 +1.80 +1.75 +1.74 77.42 77.52 77.47
WTI diff to CMA Nymex Apr CMA -0.06 -0.03 -0.05 -0.04
WTI postings-plus Apr Postings +3.32 +3.35 +3.33 +3.34
Midcontinent $/bl
Diff Diff MTD
Weighted Cumulative
Timing Basis Diff low Diff high weighted weighted Low High
average MTD VWA
average average
Bakken DAPL Apr CMA Nymex +1.55 +1.75 +1.57 +1.91 77.40 77.60 77.42 +1.80
Bakken Patoka Apr CMA Nymex +1.85 +1.90 +1.85 +2.17 77.70 77.75 77.70 +2.06
Bakken Clearbrook Apr CMA Nymex +3.00 +3.05
Bakken Cushing Apr Apr WTI +1.05 +1.15 +1.10 +1.13 76.77 76.87 76.82
Light Sweet Guernsey Apr CMA Nymex +0.50 +0.90 +0.70 +0.90 76.35 76.75 76.55 +0.79
DJ Light Apr Apr WTI +0.15 +0.25 +0.20 +0.32 75.87 75.97 75.92
White Cliffs Apr Apr WTI +0.15 +0.25 +0.20 +0.32 75.87 75.97 75.92
Niobrara Apr Apr WTI +1.00 +1.30 +1.15 +1.12 76.72 77.02 76.87
WCS Cushing Apr CMA Nymex -9.75 -9.50 -9.65 -9.29 66.10 66.35 66.20
Canadian High TAN
Apr CMA Nymex -10.35 -10.10 -10.25 -9.88 65.50 65.75 65.60
Cushing
Texas $/bl
Diff Diff MTD
Weighted
average
average average
WTL Midland Apr Apr WTI +1.25 +1.35 +1.34 +1.17 76.97 77.07 77.06
Bakken Beaumont/ CMA Nymex + Argus
Apr +1.95 +2.05 +2.00 +2.22 77.75 77.85 77.80
Nederland WTI diff to CMA
WTS Apr Apr WTI +0.70 +0.80 +0.75 -0.19 76.42 76.52 76.47
WTS May May WTI +0.15 +0.55 +0.35 -0.29 75.99 76.39 76.19
Southern Green Canyon Apr Apr WTI -1.10 -0.90 -1.00 -1.90 74.62 74.82 74.72
WCS Houston Apr CMA Nymex -8.50 -8.35 -8.38 -8.12 67.35 67.50 67.47
Canadian High TAN
Apr CMA Nymex -9.30 -9.15 -9.18 -8.98 66.55 66.70 66.67
Houston
Louisiana $/bl
Diff Diff MTD
Weighted
average
average average
LLS Apr Apr WTI +2.75 +3.00 +2.88 +2.84 78.47 78.72 78.60
LLS May May WTI +2.70 +2.90 +2.80 +2.76 78.54 78.74 78.64
HLS Apr Apr WTI +2.90 +3.10 +3.00 +2.67 78.62 78.82 78.72
Thunder Horse Apr Apr WTI +2.80 +3.00 +2.93 +2.54 78.52 78.72 78.65
Poseidon Apr Apr WTI -1.50 -1.30 -1.38 -1.87 74.22 74.42 74.34
Mars Apr Apr WTI -0.35 -0.25 -0.32 -0.71 75.37 75.47 75.40
Mars May May WTI -0.80 -0.70 -0.70 -1.20 75.04 75.14 75.14

Argus AGS
Midland-quality WTI at the US Gulf coast firmed again rela- Argus AGS $/bl
tive to the traditional light sweet crude benchmark at Cush- Timing Low/high VWA VWA MTD
ing, Oklahoma, as outright prices fell.

Argus AGS Marker Apr 77.55/77.70 77.59 79.49
The AGS Marker fell by 77¢/bl to a volume-weighted
Argus AGS Apr 77.55/77.70 77.59
average of $77.59/bl, while the AGS index differential to
Nymex rose by 17¢/bl to reflect a $1.87/bl premium. Timing Basis Diff low/high VWA VWA MTD
Liquidity was based at the Magellan East Houston (MEH) Argus AGS Apr Apr WTI +1.83/+1.98 +1.87 +1.86
terminal, where 22 deals totaling 51,000 b/d were trans-
acted at premiums to the Nymex light sweet crude futures
AGS locational differentials vs Echo $/bl
contract between $1.90/bl and $2.05/bl.
Reported AGS spot trade volume has totaled roughly
380,000 b/d since the 27 February start to the April US trade
MEH +0.07
month, down by 4.7pc compared to the same period of the Moore +0.14
Road Beaumont/ +0.45
March trade month amid slow-to-surface waterborne trade. Valero Nederland
Junction +0.15 EHSC +0.42
Liquidity for light sweet crude at the US Gulf coast could
pick up on the back of a recent sale from the US Strategic Speed
Junction +0.15
Petroleum Reserve (SPR) awarding 26mn bl for delivery from ECHO
April through June.

Genoa
Junction +0.15
WTI fob USGC diff to WTI Houston $/bl
Seabrook +0.42
0.8 Texas City +0.42
0.6
ECHO
0.4
0.2
0.0
hh
-0.2 Corpus +0.44

Christi
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
31 Oct 22 13 Dec 22 26 Jan 23 9 Mar 23
AGS vs ASCI $/bl AGS index diff to Nymex WTI $/bl

8.0 3.0
7.0 2.5
6.0
2.0
5.0
1.5
4.0
hh hh
1.0
3.0
0.5
2.0
1.0 0.0
0.0 -0.5
9 Sep 22 7 Nov 22 9 Jan 23 9 Mar 23 31 Oct 22 13 Dec 22 26 Jan 23 9 Mar 23

US waterborne
Freight snapshot (full view in Argus Tanker Freight) $/t US Gulf coast waterborne $/bl
Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High
WTI fob USGC Prompt Apr CMA Nymex +2.04/+2.34 77.89-78.19

USGC-east coast Canada Prompt Apr WTI Houston +0.23/+0.53
70,000t 45.02 USGC-Europe Prompt Jun Ice -3.20/-2.90
70,000t 61.09 Bakken fob
Beaumont/ Prompt Apr CMA Nymex +2.19/+2.59 78.04-78.44
Nederland
Prompt Apr WTI Houston +0.38/+0.78
USGC-China
Prompt Jun Ice -3.05/-2.65
270,000t 40.08
130,000t 57.08
WTI intramonth spreads $/bl
USGC/Carib-Singapore Load window Diff
Timing Basis Diff low/high
130,000t 53.23 (dates) midpoint
1-10 M1 Apr Apr WTI Houston +0.30/+0.50 +0.40

Freight rates are five-day rolling averages. Apr Jun Ice -3.13/-2.93 -3.03
The full range of tanker freight rates, including Crude-specific USD/bl freight
is available in Argus Tanker Freight. 11-20 M1 Apr Apr WTI Houston +0.25/+0.45 +0.35
Apr Jun Ice -3.18/-2.98 -3.08
Freight rate $ lumpsum 21-30 M1 Apr Apr WTI Houston +0.25/+0.45 +0.35
Five-day rolling average Apr Jun Ice -3.18/-2.98 -3.08
USGC Aframax reverse lightering 734,000
Workspaces:
The price of waterborne WTI strengthened as Ice Brent and
Below Workspaces combine content from Argus Crude and Argus
WTI Houston both rose against Nymex light sweet crude. Tanker Freight and may require additional subscriptions full functional-
ity. Please contact support@argusmedia.com for access support.
WTI cargoes loading 15-45 days forward at the US Gulf
coast climbed by 15¢/bl against June Ice Brent to discounts • Crude Imports + Freight – China
• Crude + Freight - Atlantic Basin
between $3.20/bl and $2.90/bl, circling a roughly 40¢/bl • Crude Exports + Freight – US
discount to WTI Houston. That was compared to about 60¢/ • Crude Imports + Freight - India
bl above WTI Houston last session. These Workspaces are curated by the Freight editorial team.
For general information about Workspaces and Markets,
WTI cargoes loading in early February were pegged please visit this link.
around a $3/bl discount to June Ice Brent this session and
offers surfaced at the same level, setting the high end of the
first intramonth decade. Mid-April offers emerged just below Nymex light sweet crude strengthened by 16¢/bl to a
that at a $3.05/bl discount to June Ice Brent, setting the discount of $5.37/bl this session while the WTI Houston
high end of the second decade. volume-weighted average strengthened by 17¢/bl to $1.94/bl
Anticipated US crude export cargoes — 15-45 days forward

Approximate
Tanker name volume '000 Estimated grade Load window Load port Chartered destination ETA
bl
N. Terra Mater 2,100 WTI and/or Mars 27 Mar tbd Asia-Pacific tbd
Sea Amethyst 1,000 WTI and/or Mars 24 Mar tbd Brazil tbd
Advantage Verdict 2,100 WTI and/or Mars 26 Mar Galveston lightering Ningbo, China tbd
Degas 2,100 WTI 27 Mar Corpus Christi, Texas China tbd
Ilma 2,100 WTI 29-31 Mar tbd China 17 May
Pertamina Prime 2,100 WTI 29 Mar Corpus Christi, Texas Singapore 12 May
Cyan Nova 2,100 WTI 1 Apr Galveston lightering Europe tbd
Lawhah 2,100 WTI and/or Mars 2 Apr Galveston lightering Ningbo, China tbd
Nave Spherical 2,100 WTI 3 Apr tbd Europe tbd
Athenian Glory 2,100 WTI and/or Mars 4 Apr tbd China tbd
Sea Jade 2,100 WTI and/or Mars 5 Apr Galveston lightering China tbd
Das 2,100 WTI and/or Mars 8 Apr tbd South Korea tbd
Landbridge F. 2,100 WTI 8 Apr tbd Europe tbd
Advantage Victory 2,100 WTI and/or Mars 10 Apr tbd Asia-Pacific tbd

US waterborne
above April Nymex light sweet crude, putting upward price US west coast pipeline, 8 Mar $/bl
pressure to waterborne WTI pricing. Basis Diff to Ice Brent Outright
Dirty freight rates from the US Gulf coast to Europe de- Light postings avg May -2.40 80.26
clined this session while the Chinese rate for VLCC continued Heavy postings avg May -6.24 76.42
to climb higher.
The dirty Aframax rate from the US gulf coast to Europe US west coast waterborne $/bl
for WTI quality cargoes fell by 89¢/bl to $7/bl this session. Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High
The Suezmax rate fell by 23¢/bl to $3.52/bl.
CMA
ANS del May +3.22/+3.32 79.06-79.16
The VLCC rate to Europe rose 7¢/bl to $2.61/bl for WTI- Nym
quality cargoes, dragged higher by the VLCC rate to China, May CMA Ice -1.65/-1.55
which rose by $300,000 to a lump sum of $11.25mn. Offers ANS del concurrent May May WTI +3.22/+3.32 79.06-79.16
for VLCCs from the US Gulf coast to China were heard as

high as a $12mn lump sum. ANS del USWC monthly volume-weighted average $/bl
Basis Diff
Strikes and blockades continued this session at many
French downstream sites, halting the flow of all crude and Feb Ice CMA -2.23
product movements in and out of the affected refineries. Mar Ice CMA -3.10
Apr MTD Ice CMA -2.80
Refinery workers returned to their posts at ExxonMobil's
May MTD Ice CMA -1.62
236,000 b/d Port Jerome plant, near Le Havre, France, but
other workers have not, including those at Total Energies
219,000 b/d Donges and 246,900 b/d Gonfreville refineries.
ANS vs WTI $/bl
Labor action also continued at ExxonMobil’s 133,000 Fos and
UK-Chinese refiner Petroineos’ 207,100 b/d Lavera refineries. 10
9 WTI = 0
Refinery operations have continued, but shipping delays
could pressure freight rates higher, or cause refineries to 8
pull back production if local inventories get full. 7
This morning’s vessel fixture reports showed Sinochem 6
plans to charter the Suezmax Stena Sunrise to load at the 5
US Gulf coast starting 14 March and deliver to somewhere in
hh
4
Europe. 3
Vessel tracking data showed the Suezmax Pacific de- 2
parted Houston, Texas, and is expected to arrive La Coruna, 1
Spain, on 23 March. The VLCC Front Alta loaded at Ingleside 0
and is expected to reach Rotterdam in the Netherlands on 9 Sep 22 7 Nov 22 9 Jan 23 9 Mar 23
25 March.
The VLCC DHT Osprey finished co-loading at Louisiana
Offshore Oil Port (Loop) and Galveston, but it was unclear
where it was headed. Vessel fixture reports last showed it Assessment rationale
was chartered by Unipec for delivery to China. The ANS minimum volume was met and assessment calcu-
The Suezmax Seaways Brazos is on its way to Fos-Levara, lated according to methodology.
France, with an estimated time of arrival on 24 March after
loading of Houston, Texas, according to port data.
Finally, vessel tracking data showed the Yuan Bei Hai
departed Houston, Texas, and is expected to arrive in Jose
Ignacio, Uruguay on 29 March.
Separately, Alaskan North Slope (ANS) crude traded
twice again this session at a discount of $1.60/bl to CMA Ice
Brent for May delivery to the US west coast, keeping the
price of the Alaskan grade steady.

Latin America
Argentinian spot crude assessments strengthened by 10¢/bl South America $/bl

each on the back of active trading for April-loading cargoes. Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High
Light sweet Medanito was heard trading at discounts to Colombia

June Ice Brent near $6/bl and slightly stronger, setting the Vasconia Prompt Jun WTI -1.19/-0.79 74.69-75.09
Argus assessment at discounts to the benchmark between Jun Ice -6.40/-6.00
$6.10/bl and $5.70/bl. More regional demand surfaced for Castilla Prompt Jun WTI -9.49/-8.49 66.39-67.39
Jun Ice -14.70/-13.70
the crude as well, but the interested refiner may have opted
Argentina
for US light sweet WTI from the US Gulf coast amid only
Escalante Prompt Jun WTI -0.44/+0.36 75.44-76.24
limited volume available for Medanito.
Jun Ice -5.65/-4.85
Argentinian Escalante was assessed at a $5.25/bl discount
Medanito Prompt Jun WTI -0.89/-0.49 74.99-75.39
to June Ice Brent to move in line with Medanito, but the Jun Ice -6.10/-5.70
grade is poised to firm further amid demand at the US west Ecuador
coast and market feedback received late Thursday revealing Oriente Prompt Jun WTI -8.20/-7.70 67.68-68.18
more bullish price indications by sell-side participants. Jun Ice -13.41/-12.91
The April-loading program was heard comprising five Napo Prompt Jun WTI -15.70/-14.70 60.18-61.18
Medanito cargoes and one Escalante. Jun Ice -20.91/-19.91
Meanwhile, the morning's shipping fixture reports
Mexico $/bl
indicated Brazilian state-controlled Petrobrase is planning
Timing Basis Diff Price
to charter the Suezmax tanker Athens Spirit from Brazil to
Maya
Chile starting 4 March and a similarly-sized tanker owned by
Excluding USWC Mar Apr Nymex -13.11 62.61
BP to Israel starting 3 April. The Suezmax Irini N Lemos was
USWC Mar Apr Nymex -7.21 68.51
also seen placed on subjects to depart from Brazil around 10
Europe Mar May Dated Brent -16.96 65.94
April for Europe.
India Mar May Dated Brent -18.01 64.89
Brazilian grades Bravo and Frade were heard last trading Asia-Pacific Mar May Dubai -9.10 72.62
at discounts to Ice Brent around $9/bl and $6/bl, respec- Isthmus
tively, on an fob basis. Excluding USWC Mar Apr Nymex -6.86 68.86
Bravo has an estimated 20.49°API and a 0.48pc sulfur USWC Mar Apr Nymex -8.81 66.91
content, while Frade has an estimated 20.8°API and a 0.70pc Europe Mar May Dated Brent -14.61 68.29
sulfur content, according to tender documents previously India Mar May Dated Brent -20.06 62.84
seen by Argus. Asia-Pacific Mar May Dubai -6.65 75.07
Olmeca
Americas Mar Apr Nymex -5.61 70.11
Europe Mar May Dated Brent -9.21 73.69
India Mar May Dated Brent -15.16 67.74
Castilla vs WTI $/bl Mexico K-factors $/bl

Timing K-factor
0
WTI = 0 Maya USGC Mar -16.45
-2 Maya USWC Mar -10.55
Maya Europe Mar -15.65
-4
Maya India Mar -16.70
-6 Maya Asia Mar -9.15
Isthmus USGC Mar -10.20
hh
-8 Isthmus USWC Mar -12.15
Isthmus Europe Mar -13.30
-10
Isthmus India Mar -18.75
-12 Isthmus Asia Mar -6.70
Olmeca USGC Mar -8.95
-14 Olmeca Europe Mar -7.90
9 Sep 22 7 Nov 22 9 Jan 23 9 Mar 23 Olmeca India Mar -13.85

Canada
Canada domestic $/bl

Diff Diff MTD
Weighted
average
average average
Syncrude (SSP) Apr CMA Nym +5.35 +5.85 +5.60 +3.92 81.20 81.70 81.45
WCS Apr CMA Nym -15.35 -14.85 -15.10 -16.76 60.50 61.00 60.75
WCS Cushing Apr CMA Nym -9.75 -9.50 -9.65 -9.29 66.10 66.35 66.20
Canada domestic $/bl Canada waterborne prices $/bl

Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High
AWB Apr CMA Nym -17.75/-17.25 58.10-58.60 Hibernia Dated North Sea +1.65/+1.85 84.55-84.75
CDB Apr CMA Nym -16.50/-16.00 59.35-59.85
Cold Lake Apr CMA Nym -15.60/-15.10 60.25-60.75

Canadian Synthetic vs LLS month 2 $/bl
Condensate Apr CMA Nym +3.85/+4.35 79.70-80.20 5

4 LLS month 2 = 0
MSW Apr CMA Nym -2.90/-1.45 72.95-74.40
LSB Apr CMA Nym -3.95/-3.45 71.90-72.40

3
LLB Apr CMA Nym -15.10/-13.20 60.75-62.65

2
1
0
Production of Cold Lake bitumen was up in January and the
hh
premium for Bakken in Minnesota fell with a week remaining -1
in the April trade window. -2

Cold Lake bitumen production increased slightly in Janu- -3
ary, with gains from Imperial Oil's Cold Lake project and -4
Strathcona Resources, according to data from the Alberta 2 Sep 22 3 Nov 22 9 Jan 23 9 Mar 23
Energy Regulator (AER).
In January, Cold Lake bitumen production in the province Hibernia vs Girassol $/bl
increased to 422,000 b/d from 421,000 b/d in December. 4.0
This compares to bitumen output of 423,000 b/d in the same Girassol = 0
3.0
month a year prior.
Bitumen from these projects will be combined with 2.0
about 211,000 b/d of diluent to create 634,000 b/d of mar- 1.0
ketable crude. This compares to 632,000 b/d in the month
0.0
prior and 635,000 b/d in January 2022. hh
In the US, Bakken at Clearbrook, Minnesota, was as- -1.0

sessed at a premium of between $3/bl to $3.05/bl to the -2.0
April Nymex WTI CMA, with at least 2,000 b/d changing
-3.0
hands within this range.
The April trade window concludes on 16 March, with -4.0
1 Sep 22 3 Nov 22 9 Jan 23 9 Mar 23
nominations to Enbridge’s 3mn b/d mainline due in the
morning on 17 March. Nominations for March delivery were
apportioned by 2pc for heavy and light grades.
Assessment rationale
The minimum volume was met and volume-weighted average
calculated according to the methodology for WCS Cushing
and WCS Houston.

North Sea Dated
North Sea Dated calculation $/bl North Sea flat price

Argus derives a flat price from trade of a month-ahead
North Sea flat price
forward contract for the delivery of Brent, Forties, Oseberg,
Delivery Volume
North Sea partial trade Price Ekofisk or Troll, taking a weighted average of trade between
period bl
volume weighted average
May 300,000 83.39
4:29pm and 4:30pm in London. In the absence of trade, a
(VWA)
combination of the Ice Brent futures one-minute marker and
CFD value against relevant basis month
the exchange of futures for physical (EFP) market is used.
Basis Midpoint
13 Mar-17 Mar May -0.51 Anticipated Dated
20 Mar-24 Mar May -0.53 We then look at contracts for difference (CFDs), with which
27 Mar-31 Mar May -0.55 the market anticipates North Sea Dated in the coming weeks
3 Apr-7 Apr May -0.62 at differentials to the forward month. Prices falling between
10 Apr-14 Apr May -0.69 10 days and a full calendar month ahead are averaged.
17 Apr-21 Apr May -0.78
Physical differentials
CFD value for 19 Mar-9 Apr May -0.57
Argus assesses trade in physical cargoes of Brent, Forties,
North Sea Anticipated Dated calculation
Month Price
Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll crude, assigning differentials to North
VWA of North Sea partial trade May 83.39 Sea Dated to each grade for the 10-days to month-ahead range.
CFD value for 19 Mar-9 Apr May -0.57 Dated components
Anticipated Dated 82.82 The combination of the Anticipated Dated and the physical
Physical differentials for 19 Mar-9 Apr values gives each grade’s component of North Sea Dated for
Grade Basis Diff midpoint
each day of the assessment period. Quality premiums are
Brent Dated +1.05
deducted from Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll for benchmarking
Forties Dated +0.14
Oseberg Dated +3.40
purposes. The lowest-priced of the five components on each
Ekofisk Dated +2.20 day is used to set the price of North Sea Dated.
Troll Dated +3.10
Components of North Sea Dated $/bl
North Sea quality premiums (QP) for 19 Mar-9 Apr
Oseberg +2.71
Ekofisk +1.93
Troll +2.97 83.80
North Sea Dated calculation
83.60
Anticipated Add Diff Subtract
Price
Dated midpoint QP
83.40
Brent component of Dated 82.82 +1.05 83.87
Forties component of Dated 82.82 +0.14 82.96 83.20
Oseberg component of Dated 82.82 +3.40 +2.71 83.51
Ekofisk component of Dated 82.82 +2.20 +1.93 83.09 83.00
Troll component of Dated 82.82 +3.10 +2.97 82.95
82.80
North Sea Dated is the low-
82.90 Brent Forties Oseberg Ekofisk Troll
est component on each day
North Sea forward curve establishing Anticipated Dated $/bl Dated components-establishing North Sea Dated $/bl
84.00
83.80 83.80
83.60
83.60
83.40
83.40 Brent
CFD week Forties
83.20 MAY
JUNE 83.20 Ose. with QP hh
83.00 JULY Eko. with QP
83.00 Troll with QP
82.80
82.60 82.80
82.40 82.60
10 Mar 28 Apr 16 Jun 18 Mar 6 Apr

North Sea
Values for North Sea grade Troll declined again amid muted North Sea $/bl
demand, while Russia's Rosneft was looking to take another Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
cargo of Norwegian crude to its Schwedt refinery. Dated* May -0.49 82.87 82.93 +0.66
Glencore was again looking to place a cargo of light Dated (new)** May -0.49 82.87 82.93 +0.66
sweet Troll. The company offered a cargo loading on 1-3 Argus Brent Sour Dated -1.08 81.79 81.85 +0.73
April at North Sea Dated +3.15 fob Mongstad, a 60¢/bl drop Brent† Dated +1.05 83.92 83.98 +0.66
from its offer for the same cargo in the previous session Forties Dated +0.14 83.01 83.07 +0.65
― but again no deal was struck. It was Glencore’s fourth at- Oseberg Dated +3.40 86.27 86.33 +0.66
tempt to sell the cargo, with the initial offer at Dated +4.40 Ekofisk Dated +2.20 85.07 85.13 +0.66
fob Mongstad. Troll Dated +3.10 85.97 86.03 +0.06
Elsewhere, Rosneft was looking to take another cargo Statfjord cif Rotterdam Dated +4.70 87.57 87.63 +0.66
of North Sea crude to its 226,000 b/d Schwedt refinery in Statfjord fob platform Dated +3.15 86.02 86.08 +0.66
Germany, fixture reports showed. The company booked Gullfaks cif Rotterdam Dated +5.80 88.67 88.73 +0.66
the Aframax Yasa Golden Marmara to co-load crude at one Gullfaks fob platform Dated +4.25 87.12 87.18 +0.66
of Norwegian ports and the ship-to-ship transfer hub of Flotta Gold Dated +0.60 83.47 83.53 +0.66
Southwold and depart for Rostock on 12 March. A cargo that Grane Dated -0.10 82.77 82.83 +0.66
had been fixed for a similar trip last month carried Latin Johan Sverdrup Dated -1.00 81.87 81.93 +0.66
American sour crude. *Argus North Sea Dated is the equivalent of Platts dated Brent
**New North Sea Dated incorporates non-North Sea grades delivered into north-
The Schwedt refinery received a North Sea crude cargo west Europe. A full explanation can be found on p6
†Argus Brent is the price of physical Brent calculated using Argus North Sea
from Mongstad in February, which Vortexa marked as light Dated plus the Dated-related market differential for Brent
sweet Troll ― but medium sour Johan Sverdrup also loads at North Sea EFP
the same port. The German plant also took a cargo of light Basis Diff
sour Flotta Gold in January. It also started running some US May Ice +0.08
sour Mars blend and Guyanese Unity Gold, both of which Jun Ice +0.07
provide a substitute for Russian Urals. Ice minute markers
1-minute ±
May 83.19 +0.50
Jun 82.69 +0.47
Jul 82.29 +0.43
Dated CFDs, Singapore close
Basis Bid Ask ±
13 Mar-17 Mar May -0.79 -0.71 -0.04
20 Mar-24 Mar May -0.79 -0.71 -0.01
27 Mar-31 Mar May -0.77 -0.69 +0.01
Ekofisk vs LLS $/bl 3 Apr-7 Apr May -0.76 -0.68 +0.02
12 Dated CFDs, London close

LLS = 0 13 Mar-17 Mar May -0.55 -0.47 +0.24
10
20 Mar-24 Mar May -0.57 -0.49 +0.22
8 27 Mar-31 Mar May -0.59 -0.51 +0.18

3 Apr-7 Apr May -0.66 -0.58 +0.10
6
10 Apr-14 Apr May -0.73 -0.65 +0.06
hh
4 17 Apr-21 Apr May -0.82 -0.74 +0.02
Delivered northwest Europe assessments
2
Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
0 WTI cif Rotterdam (period 1)* Dated +1.95 84.82 84.88 +0.66
WTI cif Rotterdam (period 2)* Dated +1.95 84.82 84.88 +0.66
-2
*Period 1 covers cargoes arriving at Rotterdam from 12 days forward to one
7 Sep 22 4 Nov 22 9 Jan 23 9 Mar 23 month ahead + two days. Period 2 covers cargoes arriving at Rotterdam from
one month ahead + three days forward to 60 days.

North Sea
But most of the crude processed at Schwedt since the North Sea $/bl
start of the German embargo against Russian pipeline North Sea quality premiums (QP)
deliveries has a lower sulphur content of 0.5pc than Urals' Mar Apr
1.8pc, for which Schwedt is designed. Besides, the pipeline
Ekofisk 1.89 1.99
from Rostock to Schwedt only has capacity to cover 50pc of
Oseberg 2.69 2.73
the refinery's needs. Rosneft did a test delivery of Kazakh
Troll 2.86 3.12
Kebco crude via pipeline in early March. Kazakh crude could
partially solve the supply problem at the refinery, as Kebco De-escalators
has the same sulphur content as Urals, but the German Sulphur 0.30
government is concerned that Russia could unexpectedly North Sea calculations

stop supply from Kazakhstan which is transported via Russia. Basis Price
North Sea crudes could therefore be a more reliable option, Volume-weighted average of North Sea partial traded May 83.39
with the sulphur content of Johan Sverdrup at 0.81pc.
Ice Brent marker May 83.19
TotalEnergies’ shipping arm CSSA was looking to take
Exchange of futures for physical (EFP) Jun +0.07
Forties to a yet-unspecified destination in the Baltics. The
North Sea basis (flat price) May 83.39
firm booked the Aframax Alfa Baltica to sail from Hound
Point, where Forties loads, on 16 March for delivery to Anticipated Dated based on 10 days-month ahead CFD strip:
Scandinavia and the Baltics. Some supplies of Forties began Price ±
to head to the Baltics from March last year. Poland's Gdansk 19 Mar-09 Apr 82.82 +0.73
and Lithuania's Butinge ports are the biggest outlets in the Argus Brent component of Dated 83.87 +0.73
region. Around 69,000 b/d of Forties was shipped to the Argus Forties component of Dated 82.96 +0.72
Baltics over the last 12 months, with combined loadings to
Argus Oseberg component of Dated (QP applied) 83.51 +0.72
Gdansk and Butinge making up 85pc of the share. Polish PKN
Argus Oseberg component of Dated (no QP applied) 86.22 +0.73
operates refineries linked to the two ports. Some occasional
Argus Ekofisk component of Dated (QP applied) 83.09 +0.72
cargoes laden with Forties also go to Porvoo, where Neste
runs the 205,000 b/d plant. Argus Ekofisk component of Dated (no QP applied) 85.02 +0.73
Forward prices increased. The Argus May North Sea price Argus Troll component of Dated (QP applied) 82.95 +0.11
was $83.39/bl, a rise of 56¢/bl from the previous session, *the lowest component on each day of the 10-day – month-ahead assessment
period sets Dated.
based on 300,000 bl of trade in the minute leading up to the
Argus alternative Dated illustration
timestamp. CFDs also strengthened. The front-week 13-17
Basis Diff Price ±
March CFD increased by 24¢/bl to May North Sea -51¢/bl,
while the second-week 20-24 March CFD added 22¢/bl to May Argus Dated Average May +1.41 84.800 +0.610
North Sea -53¢/bl. Dated to Ice Brent frontline, London close
Bid Ask ±
Ekofisk vs naphtha 65 para NWE cif $/bl Mar -0.45 -0.37 +0.22
30 Apr -0.20 -0.12 +0.08

Naphtha 65 para NWE = 0 May -0.16 -0.08 +0.01
25
Jun +0.10 +0.18 +0.04
20 1Qc" +0.25 +0.33 +0.02
2Qc" +0.26 +0.34 +0.01

15
hh
2024 +0.21 +0.27 nc
10 Ice Bwave, 8 Mar 23
May 84.87
5 Jun 84.30
Jul 84.00
0
13 Sep 22 10 Nov 22 11 Jan 23 9 Mar 23 Saudi formula base 84.58

ARGUS BRENT SOUR
Argus Brent Sour calculation $/bl Components of Argus Brent Sour

84.50
Anticipated Dated 82.82
Argus Brent Sour calculation 84.00
Anticipated Add Diff
Components of Argus Brent Sour Price
Dated midpoint 83.50
Brent 82.82 +1.05 83.87 Brent
83.00 Forties
Forties 82.82 +0.14 82.96 Grane
Grane 82.82 -0.10 82.72 Flotta Gold
82.50
Flotta Gold 82.82 +0.60 83.42 JS
Johan Sverdrup fob Mongstad 82.82 -1.00 81.82 82.00

Argus Brent Sour is the lowest component on each day of
81.82
the assessment period
81.50
18 Mar 6 Apr
Alternative North Sea Dated illustrations
New North Sea Dated calculation $/bl Components establishing New North Sea Dated
Anticipated Dated 82.82

Freight adjustment
83.80
10-day average UK-UK continent rate 23 Feb-8 Mar 1.68
10-day average UK-UK continent rate 24 Feb-9 Mar 1.70
83.60
North Sea quality adjustments (QA) for 19 Mar-9 Apr
Oseberg +2.76 Brent
83.40 Forties
Ekofisk +1.99
Troll +3.02 Ose. with QP
83.20 hh
New North Sea Dated calculation
Eko. with QP
Troll with QP
Subtract 83.00
Components of New North Anticipated Add Diff
QA and Price
WTI
Sea Dated Dated midpoint
freight
82.80
Brent 82.82 +1.05 83.87
Forties 82.82 +0.14 82.96
82.60
Oseberg 82.82 +3.40 +2.76 83.46
18 Mar 6 Apr
Ekofisk 82.82 +2.20 +1.99 83.03
Troll 82.82 +3.10 +3.02 82.90
WTI 82.82 +1.95 +1.68 83.09
North Sea Dated is the lowest component on each day of the
82.90
assessment period
North Sea Dated + JS calculation $/bl Dated illustrations vs North Sea Dated
Anticipated Dated 82.82 New North Sea Dated North Sea Dated + JS
2.00
North Sea quality adjustments (QA) for 19 Mar-9 Apr 1.50
Oseberg +2.71 1.00
Ekofisk +1.93 0.50
0.00
Troll +2.97 -0.50
Johan Sverdrup fob Mongstad -1.06 -1.00
-1.50
North Sea Dated + JS calculation -2.00
Components of North Sea Anticipated Add Diff Subtract -2.50
Dated + JS Dated midpoint QA
Price -3.00
-3.50
Brent 82.82 +1.05 83.87 -4.00
Forties 82.82 +0.14 82.96
-4.50
-5.00
Oseberg 82.82 +3.40 +2.71 83.51
16 Sep 31 Oct 12 Dec 26 Jan 9 Mar
Ekofisk 82.82 +2.20 +1.93 83.09
Troll 82.82 +3.10 +2.97 82.95
Johan Sverdrup fob Mongstad 82.82 -1.00 -1.06 82.88
North Sea Dated is the lowest component on each day of the
82.45
assessment period

Russia-Caspian
Values for Caspian CPC Blend continued to trend higher amid Russia-Caspian $/bl
a steady arbitrage to key markets in Asia-Pacific. Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
Traders said CPC Blend could change hands at above fob Russia
North Sea Dated -3.50 cif Augusta, with some assessing the Urals fob Primorsk Dated -35.50 47.37 47.43 +0.66
lgiht sour crude as firm as Dated -3.25/-3.20 on those sale Urals fob Ust-Luga Dated -35.50 47.37 47.43 +0.66
terms. No deals were heard concluded at these levels. Mar- Urals Aframax fob Novo Dated -37.25 45.62 45.68 +0.66
ket sources pointed out that this crude has benefited from Urals Suezmax fob Novo Dated -37.45 45.42 45.48 +0.66
rising Asian demand, which has helped to offset any price Siberian Light fob Novo Dated -27.00 55.87 55.93 +0.66
volatility from fluctuating refining margins closer to home. Urals dap West Coast India Dated -17.00 65.87 65.93 +0.66
Shipping reports show the Nicolaos is due to load around Delivered
135,000t of crude from the CPC-R marine terminal on Kebco cif Augusta Dated +0.40 83.27 83.33 +0.66
Russia's Black Sea coast on 27 March for delivery to as-yet- CPC Blend cif Augusta Dated -3.25 79.62 79.68 +0.76
unknown in South Korea. The fixture was not confirmed and BTC Blend cif Augusta Dated +3.00 85.87 85.93 +0.66
could still fail. Azeri Light cif Augusta Dated +2.80 85.67 85.73 +0.66
South Korea is a key long-haul outlet for this light sour Netforwards
grade and is now the fourth-largest consumer. Vortexa data Urals NWE cif Rotterdam Dated -32.32 50.55 50.61 +0.59
show exports of CPC Blend averaged 1.45mn b/d in the De- Urals Med Aframax cif Augusta Dated -31.71 51.16 51.22 +0.68
cember 2022-February 2023 period. Combined shipments to
Urals Med Suezmax cif Augusta Dated -34.59 48.28 48.34 +0.71
northwest Europe and the Mediterranean were 1.06mn b/d,
Siberian Light cif Augusta Dated -26.48 56.39 56.45 +0.66
representing 73pc of total exports. Shipments to Asia-Pacific
Netbacks
were 364,000 b/d — or 25pc — with exports to South Korea
Urals cif Black Sea Dated -35.23 47.64 47.70 +0.62
at 148,000 b/d — or 10pc — in the same period. Most CPC
CPC fob terminal Dated -7.25 75.62 75.68 +0.73
Blend cargoes that headed South Korea arrived at the Ulsan
BTC fob Ceyhan Dated +0.82 83.69 83.75 +0.71
Port, where SK Energy operates the namesake 840,000 b/d
Azeri Light fob Supsa Dated -1.27 81.60 81.66 +0.64
refinery, and to Yeosu, where GS Caltex operates the name-
Retrospective netbacks
sake 790,000 b/d refinery.
Urals fob Primorsk Dated -38.09 44.78 44.84 +0.87
Urals fob Ust-Luga Dated -38.09 44.78 44.84 +0.87
Urals fob Novo (Aframax) Dated -36.44 46.43 46.49 +0.76
CPC Blend fob Dated -8.12 74.75 74.81 +0.60
Turkish straits demurrage
Delay days 10.00
Aframax demurrage rate $/d 55,000
Suezmax demurrage rate $/d 65,000
Bonny Light vs Azeri Light $/bl CPC Blend vs Saharan Blend $/bl
1 0.0
Azeri Light = 0 -1.0 Saharan Blend = 0
0
-2.0
-1 -3.0
-2 -4.0
-5.0
-3
hh hh -6.0
-4 -7.0
-5 -8.0
-9.0
-6 -10.0
-7 -11.0
13 Sep 22 10 Nov 22 11 Jan 23 9 Mar 23 13 Sep 22 10 Nov 22 11 Jan 23 9 Mar 23

Russia-Caspian
Should it proceed as planned, it would mark what has Druzhba pipeline — Urals (monthly prices) $/bl
been an increasingly robust flow for CPC Blend over the past Basis Diff low Diff high Low High
few months. The light sour crude has historically relied on

Slovakia
sales into the eastbound market, but normally South Korean
refiners trade naphtha-rich quality for use in their broad Feb Monthly avg of Dated -35.99 -35.92 46.51 46.58
petrochemicals sector. Jan Monthly avg of Dated -36.61 -36.55 46.25 46.31
Elsewhere on Caspian grades, several traders pegged Dec Monthly avg of Dated -33.66 -33.16 46.70 47.20
Azeri BTC Blend at Dated +3.00 on cif Augusta sale terms,
Hungary
broadly in line with recent price discussions following a
Feb Monthly avg of Dated -40.50 -35.92 42.00 46.58
flurry of deals of deals in a Dated +2.65/+4.00 range on the
same basis during the previous session.. Differentials for the Jan Monthly avg of Dated -41.00 -36.55 41.86 46.31
key Azeri stream rose markedly last week on improved gasoil Dec Monthly avg of Dated -33.66 -33.16 46.70 47.20
refining margins in Europe and the Mediterranean, but have
Poland
proven volatile over the past few days.
Jan Monthly avg of Dated -38.23 -37.73 44.63 45.13
No deals, offers or bids surfaced in the afternoon trading
window. Dec Monthly avg of Dated -33.69 -33.19 46.67 47.17
Nov Monthly avg of Dated -26.89 -26.39 64.21 64.71
Germany
Urals fob Novo vs North Sea Dated $/bl
Dec Monthly avg of Dated -33.24 -33.09 47.12 47.27
-20.0
North Sea Dated = 0 Nov Monthly avg of Dated -27.00 -26.29 64.10 64.81
-25.0 Oct Monthly avg of Dated -25.00 -20.43 68.11 72.68
-30.0
hh North Sea Dated month average $/bl

-35.0
Feb 82.501
-40.0 Jan 82.863
Dec 80.359
-45.0
13 Sep 22 10 Nov 22 11 Jan 23 9 Mar 23
Urals fob Novo vs Azeri Light $/bl Urals fob Novo vs Mars $/bl
-25 -10
Mars = 0
-30 -15
-35 -20
hh hh
-40 -25
Azeri Light = 0
-45 -30
-50 -35

Mediterranean
Kuwait's state-owned KPC raised the official April formula Mediterranean $/bl
prices for Kuwait Export Crude (KEC) to northwest Europe Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
and the Mediterranean. Saharan Blend Dated +2.45 85.32 85.38 +0.66
For its northwest European customers, KPC hiked the Zarzaitine Dated +2.35 85.22 85.28 +0.66
price of April-loading medium sour KEC by $1.30/bl on the Es Sider Dated -0.05 82.82 82.88 +0.66
month. Rival state-owned Saudi Aramco has already imple- Kirkuk Dated -6.70 76.17 76.23 +0.66
Basrah Medium fob (Med) Dated +1.55 78.72 78.78 +0.66
mented the same month on month increase for its compet-
Basrah Heavy fob (Med) Dated +2.05 75.42 75.48 +0.66
ing Arab Medium exports bound for the region.
Iranian Light fob Sidi Kerir Dated -1.92 80.95 81.01 +0.66
KPC lifted the April price of KEC by $1/bl on the month Iranian Heavy fob Sidi Kerir Dated -4.72 78.15 78.21 +0.66
for its Mediterranean-bound exports on both fob Kuwait and Suez Blend Dated -2.05 80.82 80.88 +0.66
fob Sidi Kerir sale terms. Aramco also increased the price of
its equivalent Arab Medium grade by $1/bl for cargoes bound
for the Mediterranean. Official formula prices $/bl
Iraq’s state-owned Somo closed a tender in the latest Basis
session to sell 600,000 bl of Kirkuk blend loading on 3-5 Algeria Jan Feb Mar
April. The firm requested bids for the resellable cargo be Saharan Blend Dated 0.9 1.55 2
submitted at a premium to the grade's official April for- Syria Aug Sep Oct
mula price for Europe-bound exports. Results have not yet Syrian Light Dated na na na
surfaced. Souedie Dated na na na
Exports of Iraqi Kirkuk blend marketed by the Kurdistan Libya Jan Feb Mar
Regional Government (KRG) fell by 39pc on the month to Al-Jurf Dated -5 na -4
250,000 b/d in February, according to Argus tracking. This Amna Dated -0.6 0 0
was the lowest monthly volume since May 2015, as Turkish Bouri Dated -6.5 na -5.5
earthquakes disrupted exports. The February estimate does Brega Dated -1.45 -0.85 -0.85
not include shipments of February-loaded Kirkuk blend sold Bu Atiffel Dated -1.85 -1.05 -0.55
by Somo to Turkish refiner Tupras, which were 21pc higher Es Sider Dated -1.85 -1.05 -0.9
on the month at 101,000 b/d, according to preliminary fig- Esharara Dated -0.65 -0.05 0.2
ures from Iraq's oil ministry. Mellitah Dated -1.8 -1.2 -1
Shipments of KRG-marketed Kirkuk blend from the Turk- Mesla Dated -2.05 -1.25 -1.15
ish port of Ceyhan were suspended on 6 February after two Mesla ex Ras Lanuf Dated na na na
huge earthquakes hit the southeast of the country near Sarir Dated -3.9 -3.1 -3
the border with Syria. Flows of KRG Kirkuk blend through Sirtica Dated -1.3 -0.7 -0.65
the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline resumed the following day with Zueitina Dated -1.4 -0.8 -0.6
supplies from storage. But there was still a six-day hiatus in

exports. The Monterey left Ceyhan on 4 February, but the
next tanker to depart the port with KRG Kirkuk was the Kirkuk vs Urals fob Novo $/bl
Valfoglia on 10 February. 35.0
Mediterranean buyers took 86pc of February's KRG
Kirkuk, down from 94pc the previous month. This was be- Urals Med = 0
30.0
cause Asia-Pacific resurfaced as an outlet, which offset the
absence of the Black Sea as a destination in February.
25.0
hh
20.0
15.0
12 Dec 22 12 Jan 23 9 Feb 23 9 Mar 23

West Africa
West Africa $/bl
India’s state-run HPCL bought two cargoes of Nigerian crude
Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
in its latest buy tender, according to traders.
Agbami Dated -2.90 79.97 80.03 +0.06
Traders said that HPCL purchased a cargo of Nigerian Amenam Dated -2.20 80.67 80.73 +0.06
flagship crude Qua Iboe and a parcel of very light sweet Ag- Bonga Dated +2.10 84.97 85.03 +0.06
bami from Chevron in a tender closed on 8 March, although Bonny Light Dated +1.00 83.87 83.93 +0.06
Brass River Dated -0.45 82.42 82.48 +0.06
one trader said it was trading firm Oando who provided the CJ Blend Dated +1.95 84.82 84.88 +0.06
Qua Iboe cargo. Results were not confirmed and further EA Blend Dated +2.05 84.92 84.98 +0.06
details on the levels of the deals did not surface. The refiner Egina Dated +2.45 85.32 85.38 +0.06
Erha Dated +1.65 84.52 84.58 +0.06
was seeking 500,000 bl, 1mn bl as well as 2mn bl cargoes Escravos Dated +1.85 84.72 84.78 +0.06
delivered to its Visakhapatnam terminal on 1-10 May. Forcados Dated +1.75 84.62 84.68 +0.06
Meanwhile, traders assessed Nigerian prices lower, as Qua Iboe Dated +1.10 83.97 84.03 +0.06
Usan Dated -3.80 79.07 79.13 +0.06
continued lacklustre demand in Europe outweighed any po- Cabinda Dated +1.60 84.47 84.53 +0.66
tential gains resulting from recent purchasing in India. Most Dalia Dated -0.50 82.37 82.43 +0.66
Girassol Dated +2.40 85.27 85.33 +0.66
Nigerian crude grades were discussed 60¢/bl below previous
Hungo Dated -1.60 81.27 81.33 +0.66
assessments. Kissanje Dated +1.00 83.87 83.93 +0.66
Market sources indicated that April-loading cargoes were Mostarda Dated -2.30 80.57 80.63 +0.66
Nemba Dated -0.90 81.97 82.03 +0.66
not clearing fast enough before the new loading schedules
Zafiro Dated +1.00 83.87 83.93 +0.66
are expected to come out late next week, which might lead Jubilee Dated +0.40 83.27 83.33 +0.66
to a significant overhang. At least one March-loading cargo Doba Dated -1.00 81.87 81.93 +0.66
Djeno Dated -3.90 78.97 79.03 +0.66
of flagship Qua Iboe was still said to be available, and buy-
ing interest in April-loading supplies had been particularly Nigerian official formula prices $/bl
Basis Jan Feb Mar
muted for both Qua Iboe and medium sweet Forcados, ac-
cording to traders, with only one April-loading cargo of the Abo Dated -0.26 -0.26 +0.65
Agbami Dated -2.59 -2.88 -2.59
latter changing hands so far. Ajapa Dated +1.10 +1.50 +1.90
Stern competition from cheaper Azeri BTC Blend was Aje Dated -0.50 +0.38 +1.15
Akpo Dated -3.19 -3.04 -2.69
also weighing on spot differentials, traders said, pointing to
Amenam Dated -1.63 -2.20 -1.79
the Caspian grade competing especially with medium sweet Antan Dated -2.00 -1.56 -1.20
Egina, Erha, Bonga and Forcados. Asaramatoru Dated +1.09 +1.59 +1.59
Bonga Dated +1.18 +1.70 +2.23
Elsewhere, trading firm Vitol cut its offer for a Dalia
Bonny Light Dated -0.50 +0.38 +0.95
cargo in the afternoon window to no avail. The firm offered Brass River Dated -1.15 -0.60 -0.21
a 333,000 bl cargo of the grade arriving on 13-20 March on CJ Blend Dated +1.27 +2.01 +2.46
EA Dated +1.37 +2.11 +2.56
the VLCC Ardeche, from North Sea Dated -2.85 cif Rotterdam
Ebok Dated -3.46 -6.22 -4.26
down to Dated -3.05. The unconfirmed offer equated roughly Egina Dated +1.90 +2.82 +2.95
to Dated -4.20 on fob sales terms, but owing to the prompt Eremor Dated -21.37 -23.66 -19.01
Erha Dated +1.00 +1.56 +1.87
nature and the small size of the cargo, it was unlikely to Escravos Dated +1.10 +1.45 +1.85
reflect the current market value of Dalia. Forcados Dated +0.92 +1.25 +1.86
Meanwhile, a parcel of Angola’s heavy sweet Pazflor Ima Dated -3.34 -2.51 -1.41
Jones Creek Dated +0.97 +1.30 +1.86
co-loaded with light sweet Jubilee from Ghana was sailing Obe Dated -1.77 -1.18 -0.58
transatlantic. The VLCC Maran Antiope, laden with around Okono Dated +1.66 +1.66 +2.12
1mn bl of each grade, was expected to reach the Pacific Okoro Dated +6.84 +4.13 +4.55
Okwori Dated +3.27 +3.62 +2.95
Lightering Zone (PLZ) off the city of San Diego on 13 April, Okwuibome formula Dated +0.55 +0.95 +1.27
Vortexa tracking indicates. Otakikpo Dated -0.50 +0.38 +1.15
Angola’s February exports to the US hit their highest Oyo Dated +4.86 +5.19 +4.37
Pennington Dated +2.30 +2.81 +2.70
monthly rate since June 2021 at 35,000 b/d. Qua Iboe Dated +0.55 +0.95 +1.27
Ukpokiti Dated +1.48 +2.02 +2.07
Usan Dated -3.36 -3.55 -3.31
Yoho Dated +0.50 +0.90 +1.22
Zafiro* Dated -0.08 -0.73 -1.66
Premium for advanced pricing Dated +0.07 +0.07 +0.07
Premium for deferred pricing Dated +0.07 +0.07 +0.07
*Equatorial Guinea, priced by NNPC

Mideast Gulf
Kuwait’s state-controlled KPC raised the official formula Mideast Gulf $/bl
Month Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
price for its April-loading Kuwait Export Crude (KEC) cargoes
to Asia-Pacific. Dubai May 81.67 81.77 -0.34
Oman May Dubai swaps +1.91 81.76 81.86 -0.23
KPC raised the April KEC price for its key Asia-Pacific
Murban May Dubai swaps +3.00 82.85 82.95 nc
customers by 75¢/bl from March to a $2.15/bl premium to Das May Dubai swaps +1.55 81.40 81.50 nc
the monthly average of Oman-Dubai assessments in April. Upper Zakum May Dubai swaps +1.90 81.75 81.85 -0.16
Umm Lulu May Dubai swaps +3.05 82.90 83.00 nc
The price increase is in line with month-on-month adjust-
Qatar Land May QP 0.00 80.95 81.05 -0.14
ments made by state-controlled Saudi Aramco, which raised Qatar Marine May QP 0.00 80.25 80.35 -0.14
the price of its comparable Arab Medium grade to Asia-Pacif- Qatar Al-Shaheen May Dubai swaps +2.00 81.85 81.95 -0.14
Banoco Arab Medium May Aramco 0.00 83.31 83.41 -0.18
ic destinations by 90¢/bl from March.
Basrah Medium fob
Apr Somo +1.40 81.97 82.07 -0.32
Iraq†
Basrah Heavy fob Iraq† Apr Somo +0.10 76.92 77.02 -0.32
DFC fob Qatar May Dubai swaps +1.00 80.85 80.95 -0.14
LSC fob Qatar May Dubai swaps +0.50 80.35 80.45 -0.14
†Asia-Pacific destination-restricted cargoes
RGV differentials to Murban $/bl

Diff ±
Das -0.33 -0.02
Upper Zakum -1.73 -0.02
Dubai vs Tapis $/bl
Umm Lulu -0.38 +0.02
0 Qatar Land -0.95 -0.01
Qatar Marine -2.05 -0.02
Tapis = 0
-5 Differentials to Murban, 4:30pm Singapore $/bl
Month Basis Diff ±
-10 Mideast Gulf
Dubai May May Murban -1.18 -0.34
hh Oman May May Murban -1.09 -0.23
-15 Qatar Al-Shaheen May May Murban -1.00 -0.14
Banoco Arab Medium May May Murban +0.46 -0.18
Basrah Medium fob Iraq Apr May Murban -0.88 -0.32
-20 Basrah Heavy fob Iraq Apr May Murban -5.93 -0.32
DFC fob Qatar May May Murban -2.00 -0.14
LSC fob Qatar May May Murban -2.50 -0.14
-25
Russia Asia-Pacific
12 Sep 22 9 Nov 22 9 Jan 23 9 Mar 23
ESPO Blend May Murban -11.16 -0.17
Sokol May Murban -13.00 -0.14
Sakhalin Blend May Murban -16.00 -0.14
Substitute North Sea Dated May Murban -0.52 -0.69
Urals vs Oman $/bl
-15
Oman = 0
-20
-25
hh
-30
-35
-40
8 Sep 22 8 Nov 22 9 Jan 23 9 Mar 23

Mideast Gulf
The front-month May Oman futures contract on the DME Mideast Gulf $/bl
traded at a $1.91/bl premium to May Dubai swaps, narrowing Bid Ask ±
from $2/bl in the previous session. Dubai forward, 4:30pm Singapore

The front-month May Brent-Dubai EFS, or the premium of May 81.67 81.77 -0.34
Jun 80.69 80.79 -0.17
May Ice Brent crude futures to May Dubai swaps and a key Jul 79.85 79.95 -0.14
barometer of the west-east arbitrage, narrowed further to Aug 79.03 79.13 -0.10
$2.93/bl from $3.13/bl in the previous session. Dubai forward, 4:30pm London
May 82.16 82.24 +0.56
May Dubai partials were heard to have traded around
Jun 81.17 81.27 +0.73
$81.76-81.80/bl. Unipec declared delivery of a May-loading Jul 80.33 80.43 +0.76
Upper Zakum cargo to PetroChina following the convergence Aug 79.51 79.61 +0.80
Dubai intermonths, 4:30pm Singapore
of 20 Dubai partials.
May/Jun 0.98 -0.17
Jun/Jul 0.84 -0.03
Jul/Aug 0.82 -0.04
Dubai swaps, 4:30pm Singapore
Apr 80.69 80.79 -0.17
May 79.85 79.95 -0.14
Jun 79.03 79.13 -0.10
Jul 78.30 78.40 -0.06
Dubai swaps months are pricing months
Dubai EFS, 4:30pm Singapore
Cabinda vs Dubai month 1 $/bl May +2.93 -0.20
Jun +3.27 -0.22
10.0
Jul +3.61 -0.25
Dubai month 1 = 0 Ice Brent, 4:30pm Singapore
8.0 May 82.83 -0.34
Jun 82.35 -0.32
6.0 Jul 81.96 -0.31
Aug 81.54 -0.31
Oman forward, 4:30pm Singapore
4.0
hh
Dubai
Diff Bid Ask ±
swaps
2.0
May +1.91 May 81.76 81.86 -0.23
Jun +1.72 Jun 80.75 80.85 -0.47
0.0
Jul +1.89 Jul 80.19 80.29 -0.49
-2.0
8 Sep 22 8 Nov 22 9 Jan 23 9 Mar 23
Methodology $/bl
Dubai forward month calculator

Dubai vs North Sea Dated, MEG freight $/bl Ice Brent month 1 May 82.83
Dubai EFS month 1 May - +2.93
Mideast Gulf-UKC 260,000t Dubai swap month 2* May = 79.90
3 Dubai forward month 3* Jul = 79.90
2 Dubai intermonth Jun/Jul + 0.84
Dubai forward month 2 Jun = 80.74
1
Dubai intermonth May/Jun + 0.98
0 Dubai forward month 1 May = 81.72
-1 *Dubai swap month 2 = Dubai forward month 3
Oman forward month calculator
-2
Dubai- Diff to Dubai Oman
MOG
-3 Oman Dubai swaps forward
formula
North Sea Dated = 0 spread swaps outright midpoint
-4
May 0.00 +1.91 +1.91 79.90 81.81
-5 Jun 0.00 +1.72 +1.72 79.08 80.80
Dec 22 Jan 23 Feb 23 Mar 23 Jul 0.00 +1.89 +1.89 78.35 80.24

Asia-Pacific
Three 650,000 bl cargoes of Australian Ichthys condensate Asia-Pacific $/bl

are due to load in May, steady from April, according to the Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
preliminary loading programme. Minas ICP +1.00 80.58 80.68 -0.34

Japanese upstream firm Inpex will load two Ichthys Duri ICP +1.00 81.58 81.68 -0.34
cargoes on 15-19 and 26-30 May, and TotalEnergies will load Cinta ICP +0.30 78.18 78.28 -0.34
the remaining cargo over 3-7 May. Ichthys spot differentials Widuri ICP +0.30 78.68 78.78 -0.34
had softened last month, likely on weaker middle distillates' Senipah ICP 0.00 75.08 75.18 -0.34
margins, with three April-loading Ichthys cargoes trading Attaka ICP +1.50 80.08 80.18 -0.34
in February at premiums of around 50-90¢/bl to North Sea Ardjuna ICP 0.00 79.58 79.68 -0.34
Dated. Belida ICP +1.00 81.58 81.68 -0.34
Traders said firmer naphtha margins may potentially pro- Sutu Den Dated* +4.50 87.35 87.45 +0.66
Bach Ho Dated* +4.50 87.35 87.45 +0.66
vide some support to values of May-loading Ichthys conden-
Tapis Dated* +6.10 88.95 89.05 +0.66
sate, but were waiting for more offers of other May-loading
Kikeh Dated* +7.60 90.45 90.55 +0.66
Asia-Pacific ultra-light crude and condensates to emerge in
Kimanis Dated* +7.80 90.65 90.75 +0.66
order to gauge the supply outlook.
Labuan Dated* +8.50 91.35 91.45 +0.66
Miri Light Dated* +6.20 89.05 89.15 +0.66
Kutubu Light Dated* -2.50 80.35 80.45 +0.66
Cossack Dated* -2.50 80.35 80.45 +0.66
North West Shelf Dated* -6.00 76.85 76.95 +0.66
Saharan Blend vs Tapis $/bl
Ichthys Dated* +0.60 83.45 83.55 +0.66
-2.0 Vincent Dated* +7.00 89.85 89.95 +0.66
-3.0 Pyrenees Dated* +13.10 95.95 96.05 +0.66
-4.0 Van Gogh Dated* +5.10 87.95 88.05 +0.66
-5.0 Sudan
-6.0 Basis Diff Bid Ask ±

Nile Blend Dated* -0.50 82.35 82.45 +0.66
-7.0
hh
Dar Blend Dated* +1.00 83.85 83.95 +0.66
-8.0
*when North Sea Dated is unavailable owing to a UK holiday, Substitute Dated
-9.0 will be used
-10.0 Tapis = 0 Benchmarks
-11.0 North Sea Dated 82.90
-12.0 Substitute Dated 82.38

7 Dec 22 9 Jan 23 9 Feb 23 9 Mar 23 Tapis Singapore close 88.48
Argus Condensate Index (ACI)

$/bl
Bonny Light vs Tapis $/bl
ACI, Qatar DFC 78.74
-4.0
Qatar DFC cfr Singapore 82.55
-5.0 Tapis = 0
Australia North West Shelf (NWS) cfr Singapore 78.74
-6.0 DFC cfr differential to NWS cfr 4
-7.0 $/t
VLCC Qatar-Singapore freight 13.83
-8.0
Aframax northwest Australia-Singapore freight 18.61
hh -9.0
-10.0
Argus Japanese Crude Cocktail Index $/bl
-11.0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
-12.0
Argus JCC (fixed) 110.8562 106.0289 100.4646 94.9921 -
-13.0 Argus JCC (preliminary) 88.1377
8 Sep 22 8 Nov 22 9 Jan 23 9 Mar 23

Asia-Pacific
Delivered China Delivered Northeast Asia $/bl

Month Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
Spot differentials for key grades were stable on a delivered
ex-ship (des) Shandong basis on muted trade. WTI del NE Asia Jun May Dubai +6.35 86.20 86.30 -0.14
April-delivery ESPO Blend was valued at a $6.80/bl dis- Delivered ex-ship Shandong prices $/bl
count to June Ice Brent. There was limited market activity Diff
Grade Timing Basis Low High Price ±
as almost all April-delivery cargoes had been sold, while the Mid
new trade cycle for May-delivery cargoes may start from ESPO Blend Apr
Jun Ice
-6.80 75.15 75.95 75.55 -0.32
Brent
next week, according to market participants.
Jul Ice
The sour indicator in Shandong market, Oman, was at a Djeno May +1.00 81.96 83.96 82.96 -0.31
Brent
$12/bl discount to June Ice Brent for April-delivery, while Tupi Jun
Aug Ice
+3.00 84.24 84.84 84.54 -0.31
Brent
June-delivery Oman Export Blend on a net forward basis
Aug Ice
rose to just below a $3.20/bl premium over August Ice Brent. Johan Sverdrup Jun
Brent
+4.00 84.54 86.54 85.54 -0.31
May-delivery Djeno remained at a $1/bl premium to July Jun Ice

Oman Apr -12.00 69.35 71.35 70.35 -0.32
Brent
Ice Brent, with no deals heard done at that level. May-
delivery Kissanje was offered at a $5/bl premium to July Ice
Mideast Gulf and Atlantic basin crude cfr Asia (fob plus freight)
Brent. Singapore China
Month $/bl ± $/bl ±
Mideast Gulf
Dubai May 83.76 -0.10 84.78 +0.03
Oman May 83.82 nc 84.82 +0.12
Murban May 84.84 +0.23 85.80 +0.34
Upper Zakum May 83.80 +0.07 84.80 +0.20
Umm Zulu May 84.86 +0.22 85.82 +0.34
Qatar Marine May 82.28 +0.09 83.26 +0.21
Al-Shaheen May 83.94 +0.10 84.96 +0.23
Basrah Medium Apr 84.09 -0.08 85.12 +0.05
Basrah Heavy Apr 79.11 -0.07 80.17 +0.06
West Africa
Cabinda Dtd 87.63 -0.05 88.55 +0.05
Girassol Dtd 88.47 +0.27 89.38 +0.35
Bonny Light Dtd 87.59 -0.34 88.49 -0.25
Qua Iboe Dtd 87.64 -0.35 88.53 -0.26
Escravos Dtd 88.45 -0.35 89.35 -0.26
North Sea
Forties Dtd 87.03 -1.08
US Gulf coast
WTI Prompt 84.86 -0.40 85.34 -0.40
Mars Apr 82.62 -0.09 83.14 -0.09
WCS Apr 74.36 -1.25 74.91 -1.25
Sutu Den $/bl Minas $/bl

115 100
110 95
105
90
100
85
hh
95 hh
80
90
85 75
80 70

Russia Asia-Pacific
Exports of Russian light sweet Sakhalin Blend crude fell in Russia Asia-Pacific $/bl
February. Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
Around 84,000 b/d of Sakhalin Blend crude loaded from ESPO Blend Apr Dubai swaps -9.00 71.69 71.79 -0.17
the Prigorodnoye export terminal over 1-28 February, ac- ESPO Blend* May Ice Brent -10.25 71.69 71.79 -0.17
cording to Vortexa data. The volumes were lower compared Sokol May Dubai swaps -10.00 69.85 69.95 -0.14
to January, when almost 100,000 b/d of the grade was Sakhalin Blend May Dubai swaps -13.00 66.85 66.95 -0.14
lifted. Sakhalin Blend is produced at the Sakhalin 2 oil and *Apr-loading cargoes
Russia-Caspian crude cif basis Singapore
LNG project in Russia’s far east.
Bid Ask ±
Vortexa data showed that all the Sakhalin Blend volumes
BTC Blend 88.60 88.66 +0.61
loaded over January and February were headed to China.
Urals (Black Sea) 51.71 51.77 +0.56
Assessment rationale
ESPO Blend fob Kozmino (PA0007196) is assessed on the basis Dirty freight rates from Kozmino (ESPO) 100,000t $/bl
Rate
of transactions, as and when these are identified in the mar-
ket commentary, in accordance with the methodology. To Yeosu 3.15
To north China 3.24
To Chiba 3.24
To Singapore 3.30
Tapis vs Minas $/bl Urals fob Primorsk vs ESPO Blend $/bl

16 -5
Minas = 0 ESPO Blend = 0
14 -10
12 -15
10 -20
hh hh
8 -25
6 -30
4 -35
8 Dec 22 9 Jan 23 9 Feb 23 9 Mar 23 8 Sep 22 8 Nov 22 9 Jan 23 9 Mar 23
ESPO Blend vs ANS USWC $/bl Azeri Light vs Tapis $/bl

0 3
ANS USWC = 0 2
1
-5 0
-1
-2
-10
hh -3
-4
-15 -5
-6
-7
-20 -8
6 Sep 22 3 Nov 22 5 Jan 23 9 Mar 23 7 Dec 22 9 Jan 23 9 Feb 23 9 Mar 23

Official prices
Official formula prices $/bl Official formula prices (continued) $/bl

Basis Basis
Saudi Arabia Feb Mar Apr Dubai Mar Apr May
Saudi Arabia to US: fob Ras Tanura
Arab Extra Light ASCI +8.20 +8.20 +8.20 Dubai fob Oman MOG OSP -0.10 -0.20 -0.20
Arab Light ASCI +6.35 +6.65 +6.65 Yemen fob Salif/Ash Shihr
Arab Medium ASCI +6.15 +6.45 +6.45 Marib Light Dated na na na
Arab Heavy ASCI +5.70 +6.00 +6.00
Masila Dated na na na
Saudi Arabia to US: delivered US Gulf
Arab Extra Light ASCI +9.50 +9.50 +9.50 Iraq Feb* Mar* Apr†
Arab Light ASCI +7.65 +7.95 +7.95 Iraq to Europe
Arab Medium ASCI +7.45 +7.75 +7.75
Kirkuk (fob Ceyhan) Dated -3.25 -1.45 -1.45
Arab Heavy ASCI +7.00 +7.30 +7.30
Saudi Arabia to NW Europe: fob Ras Tanura* Basrah Medium Dated -8.95 -6.95 -5.70
Arab Extra Light Ice Brent Settlement -0.40 +1.60 +1.60 Basrah Heavy Dated -13.15 -11.25 -9.50
Arab Light Ice Brent Settlement -1.50 +0.50 +1.00
Iraq to US
Arab Medium Ice Brent Settlement -2.80 -0.80 +0.50
Arab Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -5.90 -3.90 -2.60 Kirkuk (fob Ceyhan) ASCI 1.00 1.00 1.00
Saudi Arabia to Mediterranean: fob Sidi Kerir* Basrah Medium ASCI -1.70 -1.50 -1.20
Arab Extra Light Ice Brent Settlement 0.00 +2.00 +2.10
Basrah Heavy ASCI -5.65 -6.15 -6.15
Arab Light Ice Brent Settlement -1.50 +0.50 +0.80
Arab Medium Ice Brent Settlement -2.50 -0.50 +0.50 Iraq to Asia-Pacific
Arab Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -6.40 -4.40 -3.10 Basrah Medium Oman/Dubai avg -1.40 -1.10 -0.15
Saudi Arabia to Mediterranean: fob Ras Tanura*
Basrah Heavy Oman/Dubai avg -6 -5.85 -3.90
Arab Extra Light Ice Brent Settlement 0.00 +2.00 +2.10
Arab Light Ice Brent Settlement -1.50 +0.50 +0.80 Official selling prices $/bl
Arab Medium Ice Brent Settlement -2.50 -0.50 +0.50
Arab Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -6.40 -4.40 -3.10 Abu Dhabi Jan Feb Mar
Saudi Arabia to Asia-Pacific: fob Ras Tanura Murban 90.90 80.11 82.63
Arab Super Light Oman/Dubai avg +4.95 +5.95 +4.95 Das premium to Murban -1.20 -1.40 -1.45
Arab Extra Light Oman/Dubai avg +3.55 +2.25 +2.70 Umm Lulu premium to Murban 0.00 +0.05 +0.05
Upper Zakum premium to Murban -5.20 -3.10 -1.95
Arab Light Oman/Dubai avg +1.80 +2.00 +2.50
Qatar Jan Feb Mar
Arab Medium Oman/Dubai avg +1.10 +1.60 +2.50
Dukhan/Land premium to Oman/Dubai avg +4.60
Arab Heavy Oman/Dubai avg -2.25 -1.75 +0.75 Marine premium to Oman/Dubai avg +1.85
Iran Jan Feb Mar Dukhan/Land premium to Dubai avg +2.10 +1.10
Iran to Mediterranean: fob Kharg Island Marine premium to Dubai avg +0.75 +0.40
Iranian Light Ice Brent Settlement -2.10 -3.55 -1.60 Oman Feb Mar Apr
Iranian Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -4.75 -5.85 -3.90 Oman 77.43 80.92 82.23
Foroozan Blend Ice Brent Settlement -4.60 -6.00 -3.80 Indonesia Dec Jan Feb
Soroush Ice Brent Settlement na na na Minas 78.74 79.71 80.76
Duri 85.13 86.72 87.78
Nowruz Ice Brent Settlement na na na
Widuri 77.58 78.55 79.60
Iran to NW Europe: fob Kharg Island
Belida 78.91 80.88 81.11
Iranian Light Ice Brent Settlement -2.05 -3.40 -1.35 Attaka 78.82 80.69 81.04
Iranian Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -4.85 -5.80 -3.70 Ardjuna 77.87 79.84 80.07
Foroozan Blend Ice Brent Settlement -4.95 -5.90 -3.65 Cinta 77.03 78.00 79.05
Iran to Asia-Pacific: fob Kharg Island Senipah 70.25 72.95 74.87
Iranian Light Oman/Dubai avg +3.15 +1.80 +2.00 Malaysia Dec Jan Feb
Iranian Heavy Oman/Dubai avg +0.75 -0.25 +0.35 Tapis 88.00 88.30 86.45
Foroozan Blend Oman/Dubai avg +0.70 -0.25 +0.40 MCO Alpha Premium +12.75 +10.80 +9.00
Soroush Oman/Dubai avg -4.05 -5.70 -5.00 Labuan 93.87 93.58 91.49
Miri 93.87 93.58 91.49
Nowruz Oman/Dubai avg -4.05 -5.70 -5.00
Kikeh 93.87 93.58 91.49
Kuwait Feb Mar Apr
Bintulu 88.64 90.34 88.31
Kuwait to Asia-Pacific Dulang 96.12 94.58 93.29
Kuwait Oman/Dubai avg +1.05 +1.40 +2.15 Brunei Oct Nov Dec
Kuwait to US Seria Light 100.38 99.19 88.00
Kuwait ASCI +6.15 +6.45 +6.45 Champion 100.48 99.29 88.10
Kuwait Arab Medium 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kuwait to Mediterranean Reference prices $/bl
fob Kuwait Dated -4.30 -1.30 -0.30
Opec reference basket monthly avg Jan Feb Mar
fob Sidi Kerir Dated -4.00 -1.00 0.00
Opec na 81.62 81.88
Kuwait to northwest Europe
Argus Japanese Crude Cocktail Index Oct Nov Dec
fob Kuwait Dated -4.55 -1.55 -0.25
Argus JCC 106.03 100.46 94.99
*months prior to July were priced against Ice Bwave
The Argus Japanese Crude Cocktail Index is created by Argus based on data pub-
lished by the Customs and Tariff Bureau of Japan’s Ministry of Finance.

futures and forward markets
Futures markets $/bl Forward markets $/bl

Open High Low S'pore* London† Settle ± Bid Ask ±
Ice Brent
North Sea, Singapore close
May 82.55 84.00 81.51 82.83 83.19 81.59 -1.07
Jun 82.09 83.47 81.00 82.35 82.69 81.09 -1.10 Apr 83.09 83.17 -0.38
Jul 81.73 83.05 80.62 81.96 82.29 80.71 -1.11 May 82.88 82.94 -0.34
*4:30pm Singapore minute marker, †4:30pm London minute marker
Jun 82.39 82.47 -0.32
Nymex Light Sweet
Apr 76.50 78.06 75.43 76.80 77.24 75.72 -0.94 Jul 82.00 82.08 -0.31
May 76.65 78.17 75.57 76.95 77.37 75.84 -0.97 North Sea, London close
Jun 76.71 78.18 75.59 76.98 77.39 75.88 -0.97
Dated 82.87 82.93 +0.66
Jul 76.53 77.99 75.45 76.82 77.21 75.74 -0.96
Dec 23 73.71 -0.92 Apr 83.75 83.83 +0.74
Dec 24 69.42 -0.64 May 83.36 83.42 +0.56
Dec 25 65.94 -0.41
Jun 82.84 82.92 +0.54
Dec 26 63.01 -0.20
Dec 27 60.46 -0.01 Jul 82.45 82.53 +0.51
DME Oman Dubai, Singapore close
May 81.81 -0.23
Jun 80.80 -0.47 May 81.67 81.77 -0.34
Jul 80.24 -0.49 Jun 80.69 80.79 -0.17
Aug 79.74 -0.48
Jul 79.85 79.95 -0.14
Volume bl 3,025,000
IFAD Murban Aug 79.03 79.13 -0.10
May 82.90 nc Dubai, London close
Jun 82.38 -0.11
May 82.16 82.24 +0.56
Jul 81.83 -0.13
Aug 81.28 -0.12 Jun 81.17 81.27 +0.73
Volume bl 3,488,000 Jul 80.33 80.43 +0.76
Tocom Mideast Gulf (day session)
Aug 79.51 79.61 +0.80
May 79.22 -2.56
Jun 77.86 -2.45 WTI Cushing, 1:30pm Houston
Jul 76.78 -2.56 Apr 75.70 75.74 -0.94
Aug 75.84 -2.58
May 75.82 75.86 -0.97
Volume bl 3,785,844
Jun 75.86 75.90 -0.97
INE crude futures Jul 75.72 75.76 -0.96
Timing Settle Yuan/bl ± Settle $/bl ±
Apr 560.40 -12.80 80.44 -2.01 Intermonths $/bl

May 560.10 -11.80 80.40 -1.86 Mid
Jun 559.80 -10.00 80.35 -1.61
Jul 559.00 -8.30 80.24 -1.36 North Sea Singapore close
Volume bl 93,129,500 Apr/May 0.220
May/Jun 0.480
Ice Brent: First month vs second month $/bl
Jun/Jul 0.390
3.0 North Sea London close
Ice Brent second month = 0
Apr/May 0.400
2.0 May/Jun 0.510
Jun/Jul 0.390
1.0
hh
Forward spreads 4:30pm London $/bl
0.0
N Sea/Dubai WTI/N Sea WTI/Dubai
-1.0 Apr - -6.55

May - -6.02 -4.83
-2.0 Jun 1.66 -5.49 -3.83

15 Sep 22 11 Nov 22 11 Jan 23 9 Mar 23 Jul 2.11 -5.28 -3.17

Daily Netbacks
Northwest Europe (9 Mar) $/bl

Complex Simple
Yield Freight Netback ± 8 Mar Yield Freight Netback ± 8 Mar
Arab Light 92.60 2.60 90.00 -0.92 89.64 2.60 87.04 -0.78
Arab Heavy 85.30 2.70 82.60 -0.77 82.11 2.70 79.41 -0.56
Azeri 99.31 3.15 96.16 -0.43 97.29 3.15 94.14 -0.30
Bonny Light 100.52 3.12 97.40 -0.45 99.03 3.12 95.91 -0.32
Brass River 99.77 3.02 96.75 -0.42 98.38 3.02 95.36 -0.33
Brent 96.33 1.69 94.64 -0.41 94.39 1.69 92.70 -0.28
Es Sider 94.95 3.13 91.82 -0.35 93.11 3.13 89.98 -0.15
Forties 95.35 1.67 93.68 -0.43 92.46 1.67 90.79 -0.27
Iranian Light 92.35 2.60 89.75 -0.86 88.95 2.60 86.35 -0.70
Kirkuk 91.00 2.59 88.41 -0.89 88.21 2.59 85.62 -0.73
Kuwait 87.32 2.66 84.66 -0.78 84.46 2.66 81.80 -0.62
Murban 96.45 2.49 93.96 -0.99 93.55 2.49 91.06 -0.83
Saharan Blend 96.89 2.97 93.92 -0.40 95.48 2.97 92.51 -0.25
Urals 92.77 0.00 92.77 -0.38 89.37 0.00 89.37 -0.22
Zueitina 96.21 3.11 93.10 -0.40 92.89 3.11 89.78 -0.29
Singapore (9 Mar) $/bl

Complex Simple
Arab Light 93.11 3.58 89.53 -1.69 83.06 3.58 79.48 -1.61
Arab Heavy 88.14 3.71 84.43 -1.67 75.79 3.71 72.08 -1.56
Dubai 93.38 3.64 89.74 -1.66 81.73 3.64 78.09 -1.58
ESPO Blend 94.55 3.29 91.26 -1.10 81.12 3.29 77.83 -1.00
Iranian Heavy 90.94 3.67 87.27 -1.62 77.63 3.67 73.96 -1.50
Minas 93.27 3.88 89.39 -1.14 78.11 3.88 74.23 -0.88
Murban 95.25 3.42 91.83 -1.61 85.04 3.42 81.62 -1.52
Oman 91.12 3.65 87.47 -1.64 77.30 3.65 73.65 -1.53
US Gulf coast (9 Mar) $/bl

Complex Simple
Arab Light 100.97 3.18 97.79 -3.40 92.18 3.18 89.00 -2.46
Arab Medium 99.21 3.22 95.99 -3.37 88.36 3.22 85.14 -2.22
Bonny Light 107.15 3.81 103.34 -2.69 88.05 3.81 84.24 -2.21
LLS 103.78 0.00 103.78 -2.85 97.65 0.00 97.65 -2.20
Mars 99.21 0.00 99.21 -2.73 87.40 0.00 87.40 -1.46
Maya 90.68 6.36 84.32 -2.54 73.79 6.36 67.43 -0.39
WTI 103.96 0.00 103.96 -2.85 98.83 0.00 98.83 -2.34
US west coast (9 Mar) $/bl

Complex Simple
ANS 104.10 0.00 104.10 -3.87 89.30 0.00 89.30 -1.62

Oriente 102.31 9.37 92.94 -3.36 90.48 9.37 81.11 -1.10

Deals done
Argus AGS deals done $/bl

Adjusted Volume
Differential Reported AGS index AGS Marker
Location basis differential price differential price b/d bl
Magellan East Houston Apr WTI +2.05 +1.98 77.70 1,000

*Table shows deals as reported and also normalized values for the calculation of VWAs
North America pipeline deals done

Trade Basis
Grade Location Differential basis Differential Price $/bl Volume b/d
month month
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days -0.06 1,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Apr Apr WTI +1.70 1,000

Deals done (continued)

Trade Basis
month month

Bakken Beaumont / Nederland Apr Apr CMA Nymex + Argus WTI Diff to CMA +2.00 5,000
Bakken Beaumont / Nederland Apr Apr WTI +2.00 3,333
Bakken Beaumont / Nederland Apr Apr WTI +2.00 3,333
Bakken Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr CMA Nymex + Argus WTI Diff to CMA +1.10 600
Bakken Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr WTI +1.10 1,500
Bakken DAPL North Dakota Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days +1.55 1,000
Bakken Patoka Illinois Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days +1.85 3,333
Cold Lake Cushing Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days -9.75 6,667
Cold Lake Cushing Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days -9.50 667
Cold Lake Houston Houston area Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days -8.50 3,333
Grand Mesa Light Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr WTI +0.20 5,000
Grand Mesa Light Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr WTI +0.20 5,000
HLS Empire Louisiana Apr Apr WTI +3.00 5,000
Mars Clovelly Louisiana Apr May Mars +0.50 1,000
Mars Clovelly Louisiana Apr May Mars +0.50 3,000
Mars Clovelly Louisiana Apr Apr WTI -0.35 1,000
Mars Clovelly Louisiana May May WTI -0.70 1,000
Poseidon Houma Louisiana Apr Apr Mars -1.10 1,000
Poseidon Houma Louisiana Apr Apr Mars -1.10 2,000
Poseidon Houma Louisiana Apr Apr WTI -1.50 1,000
Poseidon Houma Louisiana Apr Apr WTI -1.30 3,000
Saddlehorn Light Cushing Oklahoma Apr Apr WTI +0.20 2,000
Southern Green Canyon Nederland / Texas City Apr Apr WTI -1.00 1,000
Thunder Horse Clovelly Louisiana Apr Apr WTI +2.80 1,000
WCS Houston Houston area Apr Apr CMA Nymex trade days -8.35 13,333

Deals done (continued)

Trade Basis
month month
WTL Midland Midland Texas Apr Apr WTI Midland -0.50 3,000
WTS Midland Texas Apr Apr WTI Midland -1.00 1,000
Global crude deals $/bl

Deal Delivery Diff Diff Loading Loading
Region Grade Volume bl Price Diff basis
date period timing price from to
Northwest Europe North Sea 9 Mar 23 May 100,000 83.37

Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 9 Mar 23 100,000 May North Sea -0.55 20 Mar 23 24 Mar 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 9 Mar 23 200,000 Jun North Sea -0.10 3 Apr 23 6 Apr 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 9 Mar 23 100,000 Jun North Sea -0.10 3 Apr 23 6 Apr 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 9 Mar 23 150,000 CFD +0.14 27 Mar 23 31 Mar 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 9 Mar 23 250,000 CFD +0.14 27 Mar 23 31 Mar 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 9 Mar 23 200,000 Jun Ice Brent -0.62 22 May 23 26 May 23

Infrastructure news
Peru aims for mid-year Talara refinery restart Block Z2-B this year to produce an additional 5,700-6,000 b/d.
State-owned oil company PetroPeru could soon reduce its die- PetroPeru is preparing an environmental impact study for
sel imports by more than half now that its revamped flagship Block 64 in the Peruvian Amazon, despite opposition from
Talara refinery produced nearly 30,000 b/d of ultra low-sulfur indigenous communities there, and will select a partner to
diesel (ULSD) in February as it slowly ramps up to full capacity. help operate it in December, with production of 10,000 b/d
The refinery on Peru's Pacific coast was closed in 2019 expected in the first quarter of 2026.
for an extended $5bn upgrade. By Mitra Taj
The renamed New Talara Refinery will have a process-
ing capacity of 95,000 b/d, 50pc more than before, and will French downstream strikes continue
produce low-sulfur diesel, gasoline and LPG from heavy as Refinery workers have returned to their posts at ExxonMo-
well as light crude. bil's 236,000 b/d Port Jerome plant, near Le Havre. But in a
Talara should be fully operational during May or June, fluid situation strikes and blockades are continuing today at
when tests on conversion units are expected to conclude, many French downstream sites, in a third day of protest over
PetroPeru general manager Cristina Fung said on Wednes- planned changes to pension rights.
day. Tests of the complex operating as a whole will likely Workers voted today to return at Port Jerome and at
continue until October, she added. ExxonMobil's adjacent Gravenchon petrochemical unit. The
Testing started in April of last year. The company repeat- remainder of French refinery workers are on strike and
edly pushed back its estimate for project completion. Late last although operations are continuing there is no loading or
year, an official said Talara would be complete by 15 December. unloading of products.
“We’ve had a lot of critical events, external as well as Workers are voting on strike action generally every
internal,” Fung said. “The goal this year is to get Talara up eight hours at the end of shifts, although this does vary
and working." from site to site.
In February, production of B5 biodiesel with less than A meeting was held earlier today between workers and
50ppm of sulfur began at the refinery and is expected to management at TotalEnergies' 109,300 b/d Feyzin refinery,
reach a maximum of 41,000 b/d in May, from about 30,000 near Lyon. Staff there voted to stop operations at the refin-
b/d expected in March. ery late on 8 March, but management have refused to agree.
PetroPeru used to import 4-5 cargoes of diesel per As of midday today, the CGT union and TotalEnergies said
month, but will likely buy 1-2 going forward, or about the refinery has not halted operations.
320,000-640,000 bl, Fung said. The company will also buy
more crude than before, likely 4-5 cargoes per month, up
from 2.5 previously. Announcements
Peru is a net importer of oil and produced about 40,000
b/d of crude last year, according to the Peruvian Hydrocar- Change to Qatar Land and Qatar Marine
bons Society. prices
Oil ambitions and opposition Argus has changed the way it calculates outright prices
PetroPeru's president Carlos Vives said the company would for Qatar Land and Qatar Marine crudes, following a
continue to pursue upstream plans. Last month, the company re- change in QatarEnergy’s (QE) formula for its official
gained control of Block 192, once one of Peru's most productive prices.
oil blocks, after Frontera Energy withdrew from it in 2021 follow- From January 2023, QE formula prices for Qatar Land
ing repeated protests by indigenous communities over pollution. and Qatar Marine are differentials to the monthly aver-
In 2021, PetroPeru awarded a contract to Canadian oil age of front-month Dubai prices. Argus continues to
company Altamesa Energy Canada to operate Block 192 with it assess Qatar Land and Qatar Marine spot prices at differ-
as its strategic partner. Vives said it holds 127mn bl in reserves entials to the grades’ anticipated official prices for the
and could produce 12,500 b/d from the first quarter of 2024. loading month. Outright prices for the grades have been
The company also plans to take over half a dozen small republished for the period between 8 December 2022
oil blocks near Talara once their contracts expire in coming and 25 January 2023. For any queries please contact
years, starting with Blocks 1 and 6, which together produce Azlin Ahmad at azlin.ahmad@argusmedia.com.
about 2,000 b/d. It plans to select a partner to help it operate

Infrastructure news
Deliveries and loadings from French refineries, fuel 108,000 b/d Litvinov and 66,000 b/d Kralupy refineries in the
depots, petrochemical and biofuels sites are being blocked. Czech Republic, although company officials have previously
Strike action is continuing across a string of logistics and warned that run rates at the Czech refineries, particularly
industrial sites. Litvinov, will be determined by the level of Druzhba supply.
The government's proposed changes to the retirement March Urals shipments through Druzhba to the Czech Republic
age, to 64 from 62, passed through the country's senate have been scheduled 55pc lower than February.
late on 8 March by 201 votes to 115. The plans face further Pipeline imports are exempt from the EU's Russian crude
hurdles and possible amendments in the French legislature, ban.
with a deadline of 12 March to finalise alterations. By Tomasz Stepien
By Adam Porter
Rising water levels lower Rhine freight rates
Plock refinery begins spring maintenance Rising Rhine water levels have increased the loading capac-
The 373,000 b/d Plock refinery in central Poland has begun a ity of barges and reduced freight rates for journeys from
heavier-than-normal spring maintenance programme. the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub to destina-
Operator PKN Orlen has not disclosed what units will be tions on the upper Rhine and Main. The resultant increase in
affected, but Argus understands the refinery's largest diesel transport volumes has meant that demand for barges is also
hydrotreater is among those currently shut and will remain falling slightly.
closed until the Easter holidays in April. The hydrotreater Barges are expected to be able to pass through the
has 2.2mn t/yr of capacity. bottleneck at Kaub fully loaded again from 11 March. The
Traders in Poland told Argus they expect Plock to operate Maxau gauge, which is relevant for transport to Karlsruhe,
below capacity for about three months. Some market sources will allow utilisation of 70pc of barges' loading capacities
suggested PKN Orlen has opted for a heavier maintenance from that date. Barges can currently only take about 40pc of
programme than usual after its supply of Russian Urals crude their loading capacity to the upper Rhine and Main.
through the Druzhba pipeline was unexpectedly halted last Freight rates from ARA to Karlsruhe have fallen by 45pc
month, although the company insists the work plans pre-date since the beginning of the week, and those to Frankfurt by
the Druzhba suspension. No Druzhba flows to Poland have almost 30pc with the expectation of rising water levels.
been scheduled for March.In a maintenance schedule released Rates on 7 March for routes to Karlsruhe and Frankfurt were
to contractors last year, PKN Orlen said it was planning to at their highest so far this year, after having risen since early
shut a 75,000 b/d crude distillation unit (CDU) at Plock for a February.
month from early April, followed by a shutdown of the refin- At the same time, the demand for vessels is falling
ery's largest 120,000 b/d CDU from early May until mid-June. slightly, as fewer barges are required overall with each tak-
Work on a hydrocracker was also listed for May-June. Argus ing higher volumes.
has been unable to verify if this information is up to date. Various lock closures on the Rhine and on the canals are
PKN Orlen confirmed that Plock's utilisation rate this year causing delays, but have not yet had an impact on freight
will be lower than in 2022 because of the heavy mainte- rates. Between 6 March and 8 March, four Rhine locks
nance. But the company expects its overall refinery utilisa- between Karlsruhe and Basel went on strike as part of ac-
tion rate to rise to 96pc from 93pc last year, with lower tion across France. From 10 March, locks in the Rhine-Herne
throughput at Plock offset by higher runs elsewhere. Canal, Wesel-Datteln Canal and the lift in the Dortmund-Ems
PKN Orlen has no major work planned for Poland's 210,000 Canal will probably be on strike until 11 March, according to
b/d Gdansk refinery this year. It is also expecting higher run shipowners.
rates at Lithuania's 190,000 b/d Mazeikiai refinery and the By Gabriele Zindel

iNDUSTRY news
Announcements
Sinopec to lift third-party product purchases
Chinese state-run refiner Sinopec will lift third-party pur- Changes to North Sea Dated assessment
chases of oil products from independent refiners this year Following consultation, Argus will include light sweet
but will reduce buying from traders, it said during a meeting Midland WTI crude shipments in its assessment of
in Shandong this week. North Sea Dated crude prices from May 2023. Argus
The Dongying office of main economic planning agency has published a list of 12 US Gulf coast terminals
the NDRC called for a meeting between selected indepen- from which exports of Midland WTI to Europe are
dent refiners and representatives from Sinopec’s head- eligible for consideration in the price discovery
quarters and east and south China branches on 8 March to process.
negotiate oil product purchases, market sources told Argus. The approved terminals from which cargoes of
Over 10 independent refiners attended the meeting, Midland WTI loading for delivery to Europe will be
including representatives from Dongming’s 150,000 b/d refin- eligible for inclusion in the Argus North Sea Dated
ery in southwest Shandong's Heze city and Wantong Petro- assessment are:
chemical’s 130,000 b/d plant in Dongying.
Sinopec has placed orders with the refiners, with around Houston/Texas City/surrounding area
a total of 100,000t of gasoline and diesel to be traded. The Enterprise Houston Ship Channel (EHSC)
deal prices will most likely be 50 yuan/t ($7.20/t) lower than
Sinopec’s third-party purchase prices for the first half of Energy Transfer Houston Terminal (ETHT)
March, according to market sources.
But the oil giant may have asked to postpone the deliv- LBC Bayport (Seabrook)
ery dates of some previously purchased third-party cargoes
to be delivered to east China because of high inventory Enterprise Texas City
levels, as sales of new energy vehicles have capped gasoline
consumption and diesel demand during the construction Enterprise Freeport
season is lower than expected.
The plan to increase third-party purchases of oil prod- Corpus Christi/Ingleside
ucts from independent refiners was originally released in Epic
January. Sinopec’s headquarters is likely to take the lead
in the purchases, rather than its provincial offices. This is Enbridge Ingleside
to ensure a price advantage for Sinopec and strengthen its
control of the market, market participants said. Flint Hills Resources
The hike in third-party buying could support Sinopec’s
plan to cut crude runs this month but it may not significantly Nustar Corpus Christi North Beach
lift throughput rates in Shandong during the spring peak
maintenance season. Oil quality inspections are also being Pin Oak
carried out in the independent refining hub of Dongying this
week, which could weigh on oil product loadings. Buckeye Texas Hub
TPPI offers light naphtha in rare tender South Texas Gateway

Indonesian state-owned refiner Pertamina’s TPPI facility
has offered light naphtha for end-March loading through a Argus will continue to publish a version of the North
rare tender, despite having fully shut down for a scheduled Sea Dated assessment excluding WTI, called Dated
turnaround. BFOET but will retire its New North Sea Dated as-
Indonesia’s Kilang Pertamina Internasional (KPI) — which sessment (PA0025857).
is owned by Pertamina — could have issued a tender on To discuss these changes, please contact Michael
TPPI's behalf to sell 180,000 bl of light naphtha for 30-31 Carolan at michael.carolan@argusmedia.com or call
March loading from Tuban on a fob basis, or for delivery to +44 20 7780 4200.
the Singapore or Malaysia strait on a cfr basis with the same

iNDUSTRY news
loading dates, according to market sources. The pricing basis March. The grade’s value had hit a low on 22 February of
will be on Argus' Singapore spot naphtha assessments. an $8.40/bl discount to Ice Brent futures on a des Shandong
TPPI operates a 100,000 b/d naphtha and condensate split- basis for March-delivery cargoes.
ter at its Tuban site, which can produce heavy and light naph- But India remained the key buyer of Russian light sweet
tha. The latter is used in the blending pool to produce gasoline. Sokol crude since exports of the grade from the Sakhalin-1
TPPI has a gasoline production capacity of around 60,000 b/d. project resumed in October. Around 66pc of the 132,000
TPPI could have excess light naphtha stocks in its storage b/d of Sokol that loaded at the De-Kastri export terminal
tanks to offer since gasoline-blending operations are halted with over October-February went to India, according to Vortexa
the complex undergoing a turnaround, market sources said. data, with another 28pc going to China. The remaining Sokol
The turnaround began on 22 February and is scheduled volumes are sailing towards Singapore and Japan, although
to last 30 days. The maintenance was supposed to take place these are unlikely to be the final destinations for the cargoes.
last November, but was delayed because of a surge in demand Sokol crude is lighter than ESPO Blend and less attractive for
for gasoline in Indonesia late last year as a result of increased Chinese independent refiners that prefer medium crudes.
driving activity during the year-end holiday season. By Fabian Ng
TPPI supplies gasoline to KPI under a tolling arrangement.
By Vanessa Liu KRG Kirkuk Feb crude exports near 8-year low
Loadings of Iraqi Kirkuk blend marketed by the Kurdistan Re-
India regains appetite for Russian ESPO Blend gional Government fell in February to the lowest monthly vol-
Renewed Indian demand for Russian ESPO Blend crude has ume since May 2015, as Turkish earthquakes disrupted exports.
emerged after the country paused purchases of the light Exports of KRG Kirkuk blend decreased by 39pc from January
sweet grade during the past few months. to 250,000 b/d in February, according to Argus tracking data.
The Aframax Diamond departed Russia’s far east port of This estimate does not include shipments of February-loaded
Kozmino in early March after loading around 722,000 bl of Kirkuk blend sold by Iraqi state-owned Somo to Turkish refiner
ESPO Blend and is currently in transit, scheduled to arrive in Tupras, which were 21pc higher on the month at 101,000 b/d,
south India's Kochi around 21 March, Vortexa data show. according to preliminary figures from Iraq's oil ministry.
This will be the first full cargo of ESPO Blend to discharge Shipments of KRG-marketed Kirkuk blend from the Turk-
in India since mid-November, although India did take delivery ish port of Ceyhan were suspended on 6 February after two
of a small 153,000 bl cargo of the grade in early January and huge earthquakes hit the southeast of the country near the
another 97,000 bl in February, according to Vortexa. border with Syria. But flows of KRG Kirkuk blend through
The prospect of reduced Russian crude production and the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline resumed the following day with
exports from this month had likely spurred Indian refiners supplies from storage. But there was still a six-day hiatus in
to resume their intake of ESPO Blend, with Russia remaining exports. The tanker Monterey left the Ceyhan terminal on 4
the top supplier of crude to India in February. Russia was ex- February with around 600,000 bl of KRG Kirkuk, but the next
pected to export 500,000 b/d less waterborne crude from its tanker to depart the port was the Valfoglia on 10 February.
Baltic and Black Sea ports in March than in January, which The share of February exports of KRG Kirkuk destined for
would reduce availability of medium sour Urals favoured by the Mediterranean was 86pc in February, lower compared
Indian refiners, especially following the announcement of a to 94pc the previous month. This is because Asia-Pacific re-
500,000 b/d Russian output cut from March in response to surfaced as an outlet, which offset the absence of the Black
the EU’s $60/bl price cap on Russian waterborne imports. Sea as a destination in February.
Indian refiners are also estimated to have already pur- At least one cargo of KRG Kirkuk blend sailed for Asia-
chased around eight cargoes of ESPO Blend due to load from Pacific in October, November and December last year, but
Kozmino in April. The resurgence in Indian ESPO buying has no shipment headed east of Suez in January. The region has
created competition with China, which had firmly estab- become a more regular outlet as the escalating row between
lished itself as the sole buyer of the grade during India’s ab- the KRG and Iraq's federal government over oil resources in
sence. The renewed competition from India for April cargoes the Kurdish region has made some Mediterranean refiners re-
lifted the value of ESPO Blend in the Chinese spot market, luctant to buy KRG-marketed crude. This has pushed sellers
with deliveries in April firming to a $6.80/bl discount to June of medium sour KRG Kirkuk blend to seek alternative buyers.
Ice Brent on a delivered ex-ship (des) Shandong basis on 8 Exports to the Black Sea averaged below 18,000 b/d

iNDUSTRY news
last year, which accounted for 5pc of the total 381,000 b/d since September 2017, and Somo did not specify what his
shipped. Romania’s 105,000 b/d Midia refinery had under- exit from the company would mean for his Opec position.
gone a seven-day planned maintenance in late-January, Sources told Argus that al-Yasri has vacated that position as
which may have prompted less interest for KRG Kirkuk blend well, and that al-Anbagi will take his place.
from the Black Sea. The majority of February-loading car- Iraq is Opec's second largest producer behind Saudi
goes will have changed hands in January. Arabia, with crude production of 4.44mn b/d in 2022. In Oc-
By Kuganiga Kuganeswaran tober it committed to holding its production below 4.43mn
b/d from November through until the end of 2023.
KPC lifts April official formula crude prices By Nader Itayim and Bachar Halabi
Kuwait’s state-owned KPC has raised the official formula
prices for April-loading medium sour Kuwait Export Crude Pachi crude imports stayed low in February
(KEC) to most regions, by between 75¢/bl and $1.30/bl. Crude receipts at Greek refiner Helleniq Energy's Pachi im-
KPC increased the April KEC price for its key Asia-Pacific port terminal were flat in February and momentum is similar
customers by 75¢/bl from March to a $2.15/bl premium to this month, according to Argus tracking.
the monthly average of Oman-Dubai assessments in April. Crude receipts were 145,000 b/d, the same as in Janu-
The increase is in line with month-on-month adjustments ary, down from 165,000 b/d in December. Pachi is connected
made by state-controlled Saudi Aramco, which raised the to Helleniq's 146,500 b/d Aspropyrgos and 100,000 b/d Elefsis
price of its comparable Arab Medium grade to Asia-Pacific refineries, and the company imported 10,000 b/d of Egyptian
destinations by 90¢/bl from March. Qarun cfrude directly to the former in January.
KPC raised the price of April-loading KEC by $1/bl for its Seaborne crude imports in February comprised 55,000
Mediterranean-bound exports on a fob Kuwait and fob Sidi b/d of Libyan Es Sider, 50,000 b/d of Caspian CPC Blend and
Kerir basis. Aramco also increased the price of its equiva- 20,000 b/d each of Algerian Saharan Blend and Saudi Arab
lent Arab Medium grade by $1/bl for cargoes bound for the Light.
Mediterranean. In March 530,000 bl of Es Sider has discharged and
KPC’s northwest Europe customers received the largest 735,000 bl of CPC Blend and 1mn bl of Iraqi Basrah Medium
price hike of $1.30/bl for April KEC. Aramco raised the price are on route.
of its Arab Medium cargoes by the same amount for exports Helleniq has turned to 3pc sulphur Basrah Medium since
to northwest Europe. November, with this cargo being its third purchase of the
The price for April KEC to the US was left unchanged at a grade. Previously Helleniq favoured 2pc sulphur Iraqi Kirkuk
$6.45/bl premium to the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI). Ar- as its main sour grade, plus some Baltic and Black Sea Rus-
amco also kept the price of Arab Medium cargoes unchanged sian Urals with sulphur content around 1.3pc. But no Kirkuk
for its US customers. has discharged at Pachi since the start of October and Hel-
KPC generally follows Aramco's month-on-month adjust- leniq halted Urals purchases last year.
ments for its official formula prices, although there can be Helleniq has been flexible in its purchases of more sour
variances because of the benchmarks employed. Aramco grades, with Pachi being a regular recipient of Iranian crude
uses Ice Brent to price its exports to northwest Europe and until mid-2018.
the Mediterranean, while KPC prices its Europe-bound ex- Receipts at Pachi were over 165,000 b/d in 2022, con-
ports against the North Sea Dated benchmark. strained by planned work at Elefsis between February and
By YouLiang Chay April and by work on a catalytic cracker at Aspropyrgos in
the second quarter.
Iraq names new head of state-owned Somo Argus assessed Pachi's February deliveries at a weighted
Opec producer Iraq has appointed Ammar Abdal al-Anbagi as average of 39.8°API and 0.6pc sulphur, compared with
the new head of state-owned oil marketing firm Somo, the 33.8°API and 1.2pc sulphur in January. Receipts in 2022 aver-
company said today. aged 36.8°API and 1pc sulphur.
Al-Anbagi replaces Alaa al-Yasri, who had held the posi- At Helleniq's 66,500 b/d Thessaloniki imports rose to
tion since September 2017. Somo said al-Yasri has "left the 85,000 b/d in February from 35,000 b/d in January. It took
company effective today." 50,000 b/d of CPC Blend and 35,000 b/d of Basrah Medium,
Al-Yasri has also held the post of Iraq's Opec governor and has taken only these grades since June.

iNDUSTRY news
Deliveries averaged 65,000 b/d last year, which Argus the expansion plan.
calculated at a weighted average of 37.3°API and 1.5pc sul- "There is potential [in Block 19] but we still have to
phur, a little lighter than 2021. assess," he said. An agreement between Dragon Oil and
At its fourth quarter results Helleniq said it ran its three Turkmenistan's state-owned Turkmennebit was signed in
refineries at around 295,000 b/d in the fourth quarter, November 2022 covering 3D seismic studies in the block,
higher than Argus' estimates of 260,000 b/d of crude im- which Jawan noted today is adjacent to Dragon Oil's Chele-
ports. But the firm said alternative feedstock accounted for ken concession.
up to 14pc of throughput, including straight run atmospheric "So the idea is if we have more hydrocarbon resource
residue (SRAR), high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) and vaccum there, it could add to our production," he said. Last October,
gasoil (VGO). Dragon Oil said it expects to increase crude output from
By Adam Porter Cheleken to about 60,000 b/d after signing a 10-year exten-
sion to its production-sharing agreement (PSA) with Turk-
Poland imports first Kuwaiti diesel cargo mennebit. It projected an increase in production to 70,000
Poland is poised to receive its first diesel cargo from Kuwait b/d by 2025.
as it steps up efforts to replace Russian imports following Dragon Oil sells all its Turkmenistan output to trading
the EU's oil product ban. firm Vitol under a monthly contract valid for two years.
The Bahri Jasmine is due to discharge approximately Dragon Oil also holds 30pc equity in Iraq's Block 9 con-
17,700t of Kuwaiti diesel at the port of Gdynia on 10 March, cession, which includes the Faihaa field near the Iranian
having already unloaded 28,400t in Rotterdam on route border. Baghdad has had plans to increase production from
to Poland, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa. It is the the field to 100,000 b/d by end of 2022, from around 22,000
first Kuwaiti diesel shipment to Poland in Vortexa's records b/d in 2019, but these have fallen behind schedule.
stretching back to 2016. "Faihaa has increased production to 65,000 b/d in recent
The diesel shipment to Gdynia is intended for BP, market days," Jawan said today. "Hopes are to reach 100,000 b/d by
participants said. The cargo loaded from Kuwait’s 346,000 end of 2024, which constitutes phase 1 of the field's expan-
b/d Mina al-Ahmadi refinery. sion." Beyond that is a second phase. Trading firm Trafigura
Poland has been increasing diesel imports from east of sells Dragon Oil's Iraqi production whenever the company
Suez since the EU's embargo on Russian products came into receives its allocated volumes, Jarwan said today, which
effect on 5 February. The Alkea discharged 33,500t of Saudi is the country’s form of payment for several oil companies
Arabian diesel at the Polish port of Swinoujscie on 5 March. operating there.
Seaborne diesel deliveries to Poland have fallen since the On the potential for acquisitions to push production up
EU embargo, dropping to 11,100 t/d last month from 14,460 by a further 100,000 b/d, Jarwan said these could be in
t/d in January. countries where Dragon Oil has a presence and said "there
By Ivan Kudinov are promising opportunities in general in countries like
Malaysia, Indonesia or Vietnam." He said current prices and
Dubai's Dragon Oil plans output growth market conditions favour upstream investment, and the
Dubai state-owned Dragon Oil plans through organic growth company is actively looking for expansions in the gas sector
to raise production to 200,000 b/d by beginning of 2025, and as a priority and as a way of diversifying.
then through acquisitions to 300,000 b/d by 2026, with an Dragon Oil is a subsidiary of Dubai's state-owned Enoc.
eye specifically on Asia-Pacific. By Bachar Halabi
The company's chief executive Ali Al Jarwan said today
its production was 171,000 b/d in 2022, up from 163,000 b/d UK taxes 'all but wipe out' Harbour’s profit
the year before, and is currently at around 175,000 b/d. The disproportionate effect of the UK Energy Profits Levy
"So if we continue adjusting our productivity in the coun- “all but wiped out” independent producer Harbour Energy’s
tries we are producing in, this could reach an organic growth profit for 2022, its chief executive Linda Cook said today.
to 200,000 b/d by the beginning of 2025," Jarwan said. Consequently, the UK-focused company is reducing its
The organic growth Jarwan mentioned is tied to pre- investment and staffing levels in the country, it said.
existing upstream assets, mainly in Turkmenistan and Iraq. "Given the fiscal instability and outlook for investment
In the former, Block 19 in the offshore Caspian Sea is part of in the country, [the levy] has also reinforced our strategic

iNDUSTRY news
goal to grow and diversify internationally," Cook said. Earlier dition of crude from Ghana and Azerbaijan, but its slate
this week, a report from Aberdeen University stating that continued to be dominated by medium sweet Atlantic basin
the EPL is likely to deter new investment in the UK upstream grades from west Africa and Brazil.
was highlighted by industry body OEUK as “a stark reminder” Brazil replaced Algeria as Portugal’s largest crude sup-
that the windfall tax “is ultimately bad for business”. plier in January as Galp took a larger slice of its own pre-salt
Despite delivering higher production and improved mar- production from the country. Receipts from Brazil climbed
gins, Harbour reported today that its profit for the year was nearly threefold compared with December to 95,000 b/d in
just $8mn, compared with $101mn in 2021. It took an almost January.
$1.47bn one-off tax charge connected with the EPL. This was Galp also restocked volumes of similar-quality grades
60pc of Harbour's total tax expense reported for the year of from west Africa, with imports from Angola and Congo
$2.45bn. (Brazzaville) up by 1,000 b/d each from December at
Before taxes Harbour's profit was $2.46bn last year, 29,000 b/d and 28,000 b/d, respectively. Galp announced
compared with $315mn in 2021. Revenues grew by 50pc to last month that it has agreed to sell its upstream assets in
$5.43bn, partly as production increased by 19pc to 208,000 Angola. The firm has curbed the use of Angolan crude and
b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). Harbour also improved its unit ramped up imports from Brazil since the Covid-19 pandemic.
operating costs, lowering these to $13.9/boe from $15.2/boe Angolan crude imports to Portugal averaged under 12,000
in 2021. For this year, Harbour is guiding for production at b/d in 2020-2022 compared with over 22,000 b/d in 2019.
185,000-200,000 boe/d. Output to the end of February was Crude from Ghana returned to Galp's crude slate after a
202,000 boe/d. four-year hiatus, with some 30,000 b/d arriving in January.
Harbour said its review of its UK organisation should be Among lighter grades, Portugal imported 30,000 b/d from
completed during the second half of this year. For 2023, it Azerbaijan and 25,000 b/d from the US.
is guiding for capital spending of $1.1bn, with 85pc of this to By Jonathan Gleave
be directed toward UK investment. The remainder will be
focused on growth opportunities “with potential for material Angola-US crude exports up in February
reserves replacement”. These include Mexico's Zama devel- Angola’s February crude exports to the US more than
opment where it has a non-operated 12.39pc interest and doubled on the month to 35,000 b/d, according to Vortexa,
Indonesia's Andaman acreage where it made a gas discovery the highest monthly rate since June 2021.
in July and plans to drill at least three wells in the second The increase coincided with exports to China, histori-
half of 2023. cally a key outlet, dropping to a multi-year low last month,
Harbour reported free cash flow (FCF) of $2.11bn for as a result of continued competition from Brazilian medium
2022 against $678mn in 2021, and approved $600mn of sweet Tupi and cheaper Russian grades such as ESPO Blend.
shareholder distributions in 2022, with $400mn of this being Buying interest from the Americas could support dif-
share buybacks. It has proposed a final dividend of $100mn ferentials and counterbalance lacklustre demand east of the
for 2022, which is in line with its policy to distribute $200mn Suez canal. Traders said that Angola’s Sonangol earlier this
in dividends every year. week sold a cargo of medium sweet Girassol to US refiner
By Jon Mainwaring Philips66 close to a $2.50/bl premium to benchmark North
Sea Dated, marking at least a 60¢/bl increase from previous
Portugal Jan crude imports sharply higher assessments.
Portugal's crude imports recovered in January as the coun- Most other Angolan crude grades have gained 30¢/bl in
try's sole refiner Galp stocked up on medium sweet grades the week to 9 March.
to take advantage of buoyant margins. By Giulio Bajona
Imports climbed by 62pc on the month to 238,000 b/d
in January, after falling by over 100,000 b/d in December, US sells 26mn bl of crude from SPR
according to latest data from the general directorate for The US Energy Department has conducted its last scheduled
energy DGEG. January's deliveries were 12,000 b/d above sale from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) until
the nameplate capacity of Galp's 226,000 Sines refinery and 2026 through an auction of 26mn bl of sweet crude.
36pc higher on the year. The sale of SPR crude, set for delivery on 1 April-30 June,
Galp widened its supplier base in January with the ad- will raise about $2bn for other government programs at cur-

iNDUSTRY news
rent prices. The US Congress mandated the crude drawdown There were 667 permits issued in February for drilling
from the SPR through two laws enacted in 2015 as a way to oil, drilling gas, or drilling for both oil and gas, according to
pay for transportation funding and to raise general revenue. the regulator, down from 780 in the same month 2022. This
Marathon Petroleum was the largest buyer in the sale, is also down from 804 in January of this year.
purchasing a combined 8.4mn bl of West Hackberry Sweet Commodity prices in North America have seen notable
and Big Hill Sweet crude at discounts to the US benchmark declines over the past year, adding some pressure to drilling
Argus WTI Houston ranging from $1.02/bl to $1.86/bl. plans. The average settled price of West Texas Intermediate
West Hackberry Sweet has a gravity of 36.8°API and (WTI) crude futures across February was $76.83/bl, down
a 0.34pc sulfur content, reflecting a slightly heavier and from $91.64/bl in February 2022, while the spot price for
more sour quality than WTI. Big Hill Sweet has a gravity of natural gas has fallen to $2.83/Mmbtu from $4.69/Mmbtu
35.6°API and a 0.41pc sulfur content. across the same period.
Equinor was the second largest bidder in the auction, Permits intended for wells targeting only crude came in
buying 6.5mn bl of West Hackberry Sweet at prices ranging at 151 in February, the lowest since August 2021. Natural gas
from a $1.47/bl discount to WTI Houston to a $2.02/bl pre- permits also hit a recent low with only 44 issued in Febru-
mium. The company also bought 800,000 bl of Big Hill Sweet ary, the lowest since June 2021.
crude at a discount of $1.02/bl and $1.12/bl to WTI Houston. Two of Texas’ most prominent oil and gas regions ac-
Pipeline deliveries of those two grades were priced counted for most of the permitting declines from a year ago
higher than a delivery by vessel. Big Hill Sweet sold in the as tightness in the service sector and labor constraints in the
auction was purchased at a $1.50 volume-weighted average oil patch have constrained some producers.
discount to WTI Houston, whereas West Hackberry Sweet Operators in the Midland area, or District 8, were issued
crude sold at a 74¢/bl volume-weighted average discount to 353 permits for oil and/or gas wells in February, down by 31
the benchmark. Macquarie Commodities Trading bought the from same period in 2022.
only cargo in the auction, of 500,000 bl of West Hackberry Drillers in the San Antonio region, or District 1 which
Sweet, at a $2.50/bl discount to WTI Houston for delivery to includes the northern part of the Eagle Ford basin, were
Energy Transfer's Sun Nederland terminal. issued 76 permits for oil and/or gas wells in February. This is
The other four bidders in the auction — Shell, Saudi Ara- down by 37 compared to February 2022.
bia's state-controlled Aramco Trading, Macquarie and Phillips By Brett Holmes
66 — bought a combined 10.3mn bl of West Hackberry Sweet
and Big Hill Sweet crude. Biden budget seeks oil, gas tax benefit cuts
After deliveries from the auction finish in June, the President Joe Biden is seeking to remove $3bn/yr in tax
Energy Department plans to start partially refilling the SPR benefits for the oil industry and raise corporate tax rates as
through the return of long-term crude loans and the direct part of his budget plan for fiscal year 2024.
purchase of crude using revenues from emergency sales last The budget proposal, released today, would cut the
year. deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade through tax hikes
President Joe Biden's administration separately negoti- on corporations and the wealthy alongside cuts to "wasteful"
ated legislation last year that canceled 140mn bl in manda- spending, the White House says. Biden intends to use the
tory crude sales that Congress had required through fiscal budget to highlight his plans to reduce the deficit, something
year 2027. Republicans say should be a prerequisite to raising a limit on
By Chris Knight federal debt and preventing a first-ever default on US debt
payments later this year.
Texas oil permits at 18-month low in Feb The budget revisits many Biden proposals that failed
Drilling permits for oil and natural gas fell by 15pc in Febru- to make it into last year's Inflation Reduction Act, includ-
ary compared to the same time last year as producers con- ing plans to increase corporate rates to 28pc from 21pc,
tend with softer pricing and constraints in the field. increased taxes on fossil fuel income earned overseas, the
Most of the 700 permits issued in February were for elimination of fossil fuel tax beneifts, and other changes to
targeting hydrocarbons with a small number granted for in- require corporations to pay their "fare share" of taxes.
jection and service-related purposes, according to the Texas The budget stands no chance of enactment in the US
Railroad Commission (RRC) this week. House of Representatives, where the Republican majority is

iNDUSTRY news
seeking deep spending cuts as part of debt ceiling negotia- potential threats.”
tions. Democrats say if Republicans want to extract spending FERC is working with its partners to prepare for cyber-
cuts as part of debt ceiling talks, they must present their attacks and is developing incentives to boost cyber secu-
own plan for addressing the deficit. rity, he said. The commission is responsible for permitting
"Americans have no idea where Republicans truly stand interstate natural gas infrastructure such as pipelines and
on federal spending cuts," US Senate majority leader Chuck LNG export facilities. The agency also manages wholesale
Schumer (D-New York) said. "Show us your plan." electricity markets, regulates rates on oil and gas pipelines,
Biden last month unveiled his plan for a 4pc tax on share and oversees some hydroelectric facilities.
buybacks, which he said would encourage "Big Oil" to invest Last March, the FBI said Russian hackers were more fre-
in domestic production rather than rewarding sharehold- quently scanning the electronic systems of energy companies
ers with buybacks. The tax would be four times higher than in the US to look for vulnerabilities. The alleged uptick in
a buyback tax first enacted as part of last year's Inflation activity from Russian state-sponsored hackers could be of
Reduction Act. concern because scanning is an important part of launching
Biden has also previously proposed eliminating $3bn/ a cyberattack, the FBI said at the time.
yr in tax benefits for the oil and gas industry, such as a tax The US Transportation Security Administration in 2021
deduction for "intangible drilling costs" and geophysical issued two directives requiring oil and gas pipelines to put
surveying expenses, but the idea has never gained traction in place more cyber protections after a ransomware at-
among moderate Democrats or Republicans. The budget tack on the 2.5mn b/d Colonial pipeline system. Biden that
also proposals a first-time excise tax on energy used to mine year warned Russian president Vladimir Putin he would hold
cryptocurrencies, a policy expected to generate $3.5bn over Moscow responsible for any cyberattacks originating from
the next decade. the country.
The release of the budget proposal comes as the Repub- By Jack Kaskey
lican-led US House of Representatives prepare to vote on an
energy and permitting package near the end of the month. Alberta Cold Lake bitumen output up in January
The House's Energy and Commerce Committee and Natural Cold Lake bitumen production increased slightly in January,
Resources Committee today are marking up bills likely to with gains from Imperial Oil’s Cold Lake project and Strath-
become part of that package. cona Resources, according to data from the Alberta Energy
The White House, in a nod to demands for faster permit- Regulator (AER).
ting, says its budget would increase permitting capacity by In January, Cold Lake bitumen production in the province
allowing funding from the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law increased to 422,000 b/d from 421,000 b/d in December.
to be transferred to regulators for environmental permitting This compares to bitumen output of 423,000 b/d in the same
work. month a year prior.
By Chris Knight Output at Cenovus’ Foster Creek project fell to 190,000
b/d on the month, down from 192,000 b/d in December.
FERC chair sees Russia cyberattacks after war Imperial Oil’s Cold Lake project increased production to
The head of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said 144,000 b/d in January, up from 139,000 b/d in December.
the US needs to prepare for Russian cyberattacks on energy CNRL’s Primrose and Wolf Lake projects extracted 71,000
infrastructure once the war in Ukraine ends. b/d of bitumen during the month, down from 73,000 b/d in
Russia has been using cyberattacks against Ukraine dur- December.
ing the year-old war, and when the conflict ends, “Russia is The smallest Cold Lake producer, Strathcona Resources,
going to turn those cyberweapons on the United States and increased output to 18,000 b/d in January, up from 17,000
our allies,” acting FERC chair Willie Phillips said today at b/d in the month prior, and the highest level since December
the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Texas. 2020.
President Joe Biden in January named Phillips as acting Bitumen from these projects will be combined with
chairman after serving as a FERC commissioner for a year. about 211,000 b/d of diluent to create 634,000 b/d of mar-
“It is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when,” Phil- ketable crude. This compares to 632,000 b/d in the month
lips said. “We have no choice but to be prepared to make prior and 635,000 b/d in January 2022.
sure we are ready to identify, respond and recover from any By Sam Duffy

iNDUSTRY news
Firms sue Brazil over oil export tax industry concern regarding the country's attractiveness for
The Brazilian subsidiaries of Shell, Equinor, Repsol, TotalEn- investments, which demand legal and regulatory predict-
ergies and Petrogal are suing Brazil’s government to overturn ability. Shell said the tax "raises uncertainty around future
a 9.2pc crude oil exports tax announced on 28 February. investment decisions, affecting Brazil's competitiveness.”
The objective of the abruptly implemented four-month Oil exports are the third most important item in the
tax is to compensate for a loss of revenue until President Brazilian trade balance, accounting for a $65bn surplus over
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s administration fully reinstates the last four years, the Brazilian Institute of Petroleum (IBP)
federal taxes on fuel in the domestic market. noted.
Fearing an increase in inflation and a decrease in popu- "Therefore, the taxation of foreign sales, even temporar-
larity, Lula’s government decided to only partially reinstate ily, can impact the country's competitiveness in the medium-
the PIS/Cofins tax on gasoline and ethanol for Brazilian cus- and long-term, in addition to affecting national credibility
tomers. The tax break had been pushed through by former with regard to the stability of the rules," it said.
President Jair Bolsonaro to bolster his reelection campaign. Opposition politicians are also mounting an attack.
With the partial tax reinstatement, the cost of gasoline Bolsonaro's Liberal Party filed a lawsuit with the supreme
will increase by R0.47/l ($0.09/l) and ethanol's price will rise court claiming the move is unconstitutional and violates the
by R0.02/l over the next four months. principles of stability and legal certainty. The move is also
Equinor said that the joint action seeks to address an unviable from an economic standpoint as it reduces tax col-
lections of producing states and municipalities as well as the
country’s competitiveness, opposition senators argue.
Announcement State-controlled Petrobras' chief executive Jean Paul
Prates said on Wednesday at the CERAWeek by S&P Global
Argus Sour Crude Index (“ASCI”) conference in Houston, Texas, that he hoped for a review of
Proportional assessment the tax, adding that he thought it was “temporary.”
Following the end of the first trading quarter of 2023 By Eléonore Hughes
and in accordance with the ASCI price methodology,
Argus has revised the proportionality assigned to Mars, Inflation weighs on US 2022 asphalt demand
Poseidon and SGC to be used in the event that the US asphalt demand increased again in 2022, even as rapidly
combined volume minimum of 6,000 b/d is not met in rising inflation ate into state infrastructure budgets.
any given trade day. The latest proportional assessment Asphalt supplied in the US, a proxy for wholesale
values are based on the volume of trade over the last six demand, ticked up by half a percentage point from 2021
trade months and will be applicable for the next three
trade months starting 27 February 2023 and ending 25
May 2023. Each grade has been assigned the following Announcement
percentage values:
Argus successfully completes annual Iosco
assurance review
Mars: 67pc
Argus has completed the 11th external assurance review
Poseidon: 16pc
of its price benchmarks covering crude oil, oil products,
SGC: 17pc
LPG, chemicals, thermal and coking coal, natural gas,
biofuels, biomass, metals, fertilizers and agricultural
A table containing a history of the proportional assess-
markets. The review was carried out by professional ser-
ment values can be found in the ASCI price methodol-
vices firm PwC. Annual independent, external reviews of
ogy, which is available at http://www.argusmedia.com/
oil benchmarks are required by international regulatory
asci. If you have any questions or would like to comment
group Iosco’s Principles for Oil Price Reporting Agencies,
on these changes, please contact Gustavo Vasquez at
and Iosco encourages extension of the reviews to non-oil
gustavo.vasquez@argusmedia.com and (713) 968-0014,
benchmarks. For more information and to download the
or Amanda Smith at amanda.smith@argusmedia.com and
review visit our website https://www.argusmedia.com/
(713) 968-0013.
en/about-us/governance-compliance

iNDUSTRY news
to 136mn bls in 2022, the highest yearly level since 2008, also helped lift wholesale prices to record highs in some regions.
according to the latest US Energy Information Administration The price of waterborne asphalt on the east coast reached its
(EIA) data. highest level since August 2008 at $645/st in May while Rockies
Demand increased last year following historic funding railed asphalt reached 14-year highs in July at $612.50/st.
levels from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), Rising US prices opened the door to Mediterranean
which set aside $660bn for infrastructure projects over the asphalt, and the Atlantic arbitrage came alive over the sum-
next five years. This bill, combined with prior pandemic- mer for the first time since 2020. Imports from the Mediter-
relief funds, helped boost demand further in the second half ranean more than tripled from 2021 to 1.2mn bls in 2022.
of 2022. Asphalt supplied for July-December rose by 27pc Despite the increase in Mediterranean imports, total
from January-June to 76mn bls. imports to the US declined by .7pc from 2021 to 19.5mn bls
The US east coast saw the largest increase in demand, in 2022, as surging inflation and rising borrowing rates pres-
with asphalt supplied rising from 33.4mn bls in 2021 to sured demand.
36.4mn bls in 2022. PBF’s 180,000 b/d refinery in Paulsboro, Canadian imports to the US decreased slightly from 2021
New Jersey, also restarted its second crude unit last year, to 19.5mn bls in 2022. Railed volumes from Canada grew by
further boosting regional asphalt supplies. 2.5pc from 2021 to 7mn bls in 2022, representing significant-
The Midwest experienced the largest decrease in de- ly smaller growth than prior year increases of 14pc in 2021
mand, with asphalt supplied slipping by 1.9mn bls to 53.9mn from 2020 and 25pc in 2020 from 2019.
barrels in 2022. Pavers in the region contended with signifi- Lower railed Canadian imports in 2022 may have also
cantly above-average precipitation during April and May, been affected by slow rail service that plagued the US
which significantly slowed the start of the paving season throughout the year.
there. Asphalt inventories in the US averaged 28mn bls a month
While demand rose, net asphalt production by refiners in 2022 for an increase of 2.4pc over the year prior.
and blenders declined marginally from 124.5mn bls in 2021 Last summer, market participants expected to see
to 124.3mn bls in 2022. Production levels were likely af- demand destruction in 2023 as rising costs delayed projects
fected by various refinery outages, such fires at BP's 160,000 and stretched increased state and federal dollars thin. Now
b/d refinery in Toledo, Ohio, and ExxonMobil's 58,000 b/d market participants have a more positive outlook, with ex-
refinery in Billings, Montana. pectations for strong paving demand and high sales volumes
Strong coker yields for most of 2022 likely also pressured because of IIJA funding, although residential construction is
asphalt production during the year. still expected to decline.
The combination of rising demand and reduced production By Sarah Tucker and Kendrick Dante

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Argus Crude

Crude market prices and analysis

Issue 23-48 | Thursday 9 March 2023

Crude markets at a glance $/bl

Mideast Gulf Basis Diff Bid Ask Change

West Africa Basis Diff Bid Ask Change

LLS vs Mars﻿ $/bl

Key spreads $/bl

Dated vs Nsea Forward mth 2 -0.23 1.04 5.0

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 2 of 40

Issue Ref: 553642

US Gulf Coast and Midcontinent

ASCI Apr Apr WTI -0.62 75.10

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 3 of 40

US Gulf Coast and Midcontinent

WTI Cushing Apr 75.70 75.74 75.72 77.63 0.12

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 4 of 40

ing, Oklahoma, as outright prices fell.

April through June.

-0.2 Corpus +0.44

AGS vs ASCI﻿ $/bl AGS index diff to Nymex WTI﻿ $/bl

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 5 of 40

WTI fob USGC Prompt Apr CMA Nymex +2.04/+2.34 77.89-78.19

1-10 M1 Apr Apr WTI Houston +0.30/+0.50 +0.40

Anticipated US crude export cargoes — 15-45 days forward

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 6 of 40

for VLCCs from the US Gulf coast to China were heard as

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 7 of 40

Argentinian spot crude assessments strengthened by 10¢/bl South America $/bl

Light sweet Medanito was heard trading at discounts to Colombia

Castilla vs WTI﻿ $/bl Mexico K-factors $/bl

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 8 of 40

Canada domestic $/bl

Canada domestic $/bl Canada waterborne prices $/bl

CDB Apr CMA Nym -16.50/-16.00 59.35-59.85

Cold Lake Apr CMA Nym -15.60/-15.10 60.25-60.75

Condensate Apr CMA Nym +3.85/+4.35 79.70-80.20 5

LSB Apr CMA Nym -3.95/-3.45 71.90-72.40

LLB Apr CMA Nym -15.10/-13.20 60.75-62.65

premium for Bakken in Minnesota fell with a week remaining -1

in the April trade window. -2

In the US, Bakken at Clearbrook, Minnesota, was as- -1.0

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 9 of 40

North Sea Dated

North Sea Dated calculation $/bl North Sea flat price

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 10 of 40

12 Dated CFDs, London close

8 27 Mar-31 Mar May -0.59 -0.51 +0.18

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 11 of 40

government is concerned that Russia could unexpectedly North Sea calculations

Scandinavia and the Baltics. Some supplies of Forties began Price ±

North Sea -53¢/bl. Dated to Ice Brent frontline, London close

30 Apr -0.20 -0.12 +0.08

20 1Qc" +0.25 +0.33 +0.02

2Qc" +0.26 +0.34 +0.01

10 Ice Bwave, 8 Mar 23

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 12 of 40

ARGUS BRENT SOUR

Argus Brent Sour calculation $/bl Components of Argus Brent Sour

Johan Sverdrup fob Mongstad 82.82 -1.00 81.82 82.00

Alternative North Sea Dated illustrations

Anticipated Dated 82.82

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 13 of 40

Crude markets at a glance $/bl

LLS vs Mars $/bl

Key spreads $/bl

AGS vs ASCI $/bl AGS index diff to Nymex WTI $/bl

Castilla vs WTI $/bl Mexico K-factors $/bl

Argus Brent Sour calculation $/bl Components of Argus Brent Sour

Sutu Den $/bl Minas $/bl

Tapis vs Minas $/bl Urals fob Primorsk vs ESPO Blend $/bl

ESPO Blend vs ANS USWC $/bl Azeri Light vs Tapis $/bl

TPPI offers light naphtha in rare tender South Texas Gateway