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Procedia
ProcediaComputer
ComputerScience
Science00199
(2018) 000–000
(2022) 1144–1151
Procedia Computer Science 00 (2018) 000–000 www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

The 8th International Conference on Information Technology and Quantitative Management

The 8th International Conference on Information Technology and Quantitative Management
(ITQM 2020 & 2021)
(ITQM 2020 & 2021)
The influence of international crude oil price
The influence of international crude oil price
on the crude oil spot price in China
on the crude oil spot price in China
Rong Guoaa, Yanhui Chena,a,*, Kai Lisa Loa,a,†, Jinhong Jackson Miaa
Rong Guo , Yanhui Chen *, Kai Lisa Lo †, Jinhong Jackson Mi
a
School of Economics &Manangement,Shanghai Maritime University, 1550 Haigang Avenue,
a
Pudong New District, Shanghai
School of Economics &Manangement,Shanghai 201306,China
Maritime University, 1550 Haigang Avenue,
Pudong New District, Shanghai 201306,China
Abstract
Abstract
With the proposal of the new development pattern of "dual circulation", the connection between China and the international
With theisproposal
market of the
even closer. Asnew development
crude oil is one ofpattern of "dual circulation",
the commodities which hasthe connection
been between
financialized China
deeply, theand the international
active
market involves
is even closer. Asof
millions crude oil is from
investors one of
thethe commodities
world. What kind which has been
of impact willfinancialized deeply,
the international theoil
crude active
priceinternational
have on the
market
crude oilinvolves
price inmillions of investors
China? Based on thefrom
spot the
priceworld. What oil
of Daqing kind of impact
field will the
and Shengli oil international crude 2005
field from January oil price have on
to March the
2021,
crude oil price
this paper uses in China?regression
quantile Based on totheempirically
spot price of Daqingtheoilimpact
analyze field and Shengli oil field
of international from on
oil price January
the oil2005
spot to March
price 2021,
in China.
this paperthe
Through uses quantile
quantile regression
regression, topaper
this empirically analyze degrees
finds different the impact of international
of influence oil price on
of international the oil
crude oil on
spot price in
China’s China.
crude oil
Through
price. the quantile regression, this paper finds different degrees of influence of international crude oil on China’s crude oil
price.
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
© 2021 The
Selection Authors.
and/or Published
peer-review by Elsevier
under B.V. of the organizers of ITQM 2020&2021
Peer-review under responsibility of responsibility
the scientific committee of the The 8th International Conference on Information Technology
Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility
and Quantitative Management (ITQM 2020 & 2021) of the organizers of ITQM 2020&2021
Keywords: Oil markets; crude oil; spot price; quantile regression
Keywords: Oil markets; crude oil; spot price; quantile regression

1. INTRODUCTION
1. INTRODUCTION
Energy is the necessary material for human survival, the key element of contemporary economic development,
andEnergy is the necessary
the important material
foundation fordevelopment
of the human survival, the key society.
of human element The
of contemporary economic
stability of crude development,
oil price plays an
and the important foundation of the development of human society. The stability of crude oil price
important role in the healthy development, stable operation and high-quality development of national economy.plays an
important role in the
With the proposal ofhealthy development,
"dual circulation" stable operation
development andChina
pattern, high-quality development
is increasingly closelyofconnected
national economy.
with the
With the proposal of "dual circulation" development pattern, China is increasingly closely connected with the

* Corresponding author.
* Corresponding
E-mail author.
address: chenyh@shmtu.edu.cn
* Corresponding
E-mail author.
address: chenyh@shmtu.edu.cn
*E-mail address: kllo@shmtu.edu.cn
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: kllo@shmtu.edu.cn

1877-0509 © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the The 8th International Conference on Information Technology and
Quantitative Management (ITQM 2020 & 2021)
10.1016/j.procs.2022.01.145
 Rong Guo et al. / Procedia Computer Science 199 (2022) 1144–1151 1145
Rong Guo, Yanhui Chen, Jinhong Jackson Mi/ Procedia Computer Science 00 (2017) 000–000

international market, the process of global financial marketization is deepening, the relationship between the oil
market and financial related markets is increasingly close, the fluctuation of energy prices is more and more
frequent, and the international oil price is more and more concerned.
China's crude oil spot mainly includes Daqing crude oil spot and Shengli crude oil spot. Daqing crude oil is a
kind of non-base oil, but also one of the most important offshore crude oil. Northeast China is the largest oil
industry base in China. Daqing Oilfield is located in Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province, which is the largest oil
industry base in China and one of the five largest oil industry bases in the world. Daqing Oilfield is the key
gateway of crude oil transportation in China. Through pipeline transportation, Daqing Oilfield continuously
transports crude oil to refineries all over the country, supporting the high-speed operation of China's national
economy. Shengli crude oil is an important kind of crude oil in China, which belongs to sulfur-containing light
crude oil. Shengli crude oil is the largest oilfield of Sinopec, the second largest oilfield in China, and the
foundation of Shandong petrochemical base. Shengli Oilfield is located in Dongying City, where is in the Yellow
River Delta in the north of Shandong Province. For the reason that it is close to the Bohai Sea and the Yellow
River, Shengli Oilfield plays a significant role in the Bohai economic circle and the Yellow River economic belt.
In 2020, China's crude oil production will reach 195 million tons, of which Daqing Oilfield will produce 30.013
million tons of crude oil in 2020, accounting for 15.39% and ranking the first among all oil fields in China.
Shengli Oilfield will produce 23.4011 million tons of crude oil in 2020, accounting for 12.00%, ranking the
fourth among all oil fields. Therefore, Daqing crude oil spot and Shengli crude oil spot were selected as the
research objects in this paper. WTI crude oil in New York, Brent crude oil and Dubai crude oil are known as the
three "benchmark oil prices" in the world. WTI is a kind of common crude oil in North America. The price of
WTI can well reflect the market supply and demand situation of Cushing, Oklahoma, the largest oil trading and
logistics center in the world, which is the benchmark price to measure the change of crude oil price in the
international energy market. Brent crude oil is a light and low sulfur crude oil produced in Brent area, North Sea
of North Atlantic. Brent crude oil futures and spot markets constitute the Brent crude oil pricing system, which
covers at most 80% of the world's crude oil trading volume. At present, about 70% of the world's spot crude oil
is priced by Brent system. The Middle East is the largest oil production base in the world. Dubai crude oil, a
sulfur-containing medium crude oil from the United Arab Emirates, is their benchmark oil and also the oil price
of OPEC. Its price can often reflect the demand for crude oil in Asia. WTI crude oil in New York, Brent crude
oil and Dubai crude oil reflect the demand for crude oil in the U.S., European and Asian markets respectively.
This paper is divided into five parts (including introduction and conclusion). The second part is the literature
review, combing the literature of oil price fluctuations at home and abroad. The third part briefly introduces
influencing factors of oil price. The fourth part analyzes the impact factors theoretically and qualitatively. The
fifth part summarizes the full text and puts forward policy suggestions.
Based on the spot price of crude oil from January 2005 to March 2021 in Daqing Oilfield and Shengli Oilfield,
this paper empirically analyzes the impact of international oil price on domestic crude oil price. The results show
that international oil prices have a significant positive impact on domestic crude oil prices

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

In foreign countries, Lynch (2002) reviewed the fluctuation process of world crude oil price and thoroughly
analyzed the reasons of crude oil price fluctuation. Ine (2016) showed that higher macroeconomic uncertainty
can lead to higher oil price volatility. In China, SHI (2000) reviewed the fluctuation of international oil price and
analyzed the characteristics of supply and demand structure of international oil market. Fang et al. (2005)
analyzed the impact of international oil price fluctuations on China's macro-economy. Jiao et al. (2004) compared,
analyzed and tested the trend, fluctuation and causal relationship between China's oil price and international oil
price, leading to the conclusion that the trend of China's crude oil price is basically consistent with that of
international crude oil price. Wei et al. (2007) applied a variety of econometric methods to quantitatively and
1146 Rong Guo et al. / Procedia Computer Science 199 (2022) 1144–1151
Rong Guo, Yanhui Chen, Jinhong Jackson Mi / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2017) 000–000

empirically studied the volatility of crude oil prices at home and abroad and their relationship, and concluded
that the volatility of international oil prices had a guiding role in domestic oil prices, and there was a long-term
cointegration relationship between the two markets. Cao (2019) used empirical analysis to analyze the changes
of domestic crude oil futures price, New York crude oil futures price, US dollar LIBOR and RMB Shibor. The
study found that domestic crude oil futures had a certain conduction relationship with foreign crude oil futures
price and domestic and foreign interest rates, and domestic crude oil futures price was more impacted by the
changes of foreign crude oil futures price and foreign interest rates.
What is the impact of international crude oil spot price on domestic crude oil spot price? This paper will use
quantile regression, select Shengli Oilfield crude oil spot price and Daqing Oilfield spot price as the research
object, test the impact of international oil spot price on domestic crude oil spot price, in order to analyze the
impact of international oil spot price on domestic crude oil spot price.

3. THEORETICAL ANALYSIS

Energy price is a crucial factor in shaping the new pattern of global economy. Oil prices are affected by the
following four aspects:
a. The influence of US dollar exchange rate. After the Second World War, the international currency status of
the US dollar was established, and the international oil trade was mostly settled in US dollars, resulting in the
close relationship between the US dollar exchange rate and the international oil price. In a word, if the US dollar
is stable, the international oil price will show a stable and downward trend; on the contrary, if the US dollar is
weak, the international oil price will show an upward trend. The research group of financial research center of
Beijing Normal University (2007), Chen et al. (2020), Liao (2020) and Wang (2020) studied the relationship
between us dollar and oil price and concluded that the US dollar exchange rate had a positive impact on oil prices.
b. The influence of supply and demand factors. Supply and demand relationship refers to the relationship
between oil supply and demand. An important factor affecting oil price is demand. Considering the difficulty of
technological progress and industrial structure changes in a short period of time, the rapid economic growth is
the key factor to promote the rapid growth of crude oil demand. According to the research statistics, it can be
seen that the growth of China's crude oil demand is closely related to economic growth. Zhang (2021), Khan
Khalid (2021) studied the relationship between oil price and supply and demand and drew the conclusion that oil
price was indeed affected by supply and demand.
c. The influence of international oil market. The international oil market is divided into spot market and futures
market. Globally, the main oil spot markets are northwest European market, American market, etc. the main oil
futures markets are New York Mercantile Exchange, etc. In the market, the suppliers mainly include the
organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producing countries. The country with the highest
proportion of consumption in the demand side is the United States, and the developing countries have a faster
growth. Wang (2012), Rana (2013) studied the influence of international crude oil market on domestic crude oil
market.
d. The impact of emergencies. For example, the unilateral default of the Iranian government caused the second
oil crisis. The Iran Iraq war is the key factor for a new round of soaring international oil prices. The data show
that in the short term, political disputes and military conflicts between regions will cause huge fluctuations in
international oil prices. But in the long run, the impact of emergencies on oil price fluctuations is small. Zhang
(2016) analyzed the impact of emergencies on the price fluctuation of international oil futures and concluded that
regional emergencies transmitted to the oil and oil derivatives market through crude oil production, resulting in
dramatic changes in the price volatility of oil and derivatives.
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4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

4.1. Variable selection and data sources

According to the theoretical analysis and the aims of this research, following dependent variables, independent
variables and control variables are chosen.
• Dependent variable
a. Spot price of Daqing crude oil (SC): Daqing crude oil is a non-benchmark oil, but it is one of the important
varieties of offshore crude oil, and its quality is low sulfur-containing medium light crude oil. Daqing Oilfield is
the largest oilfield in China. Therefore, this paper selects Daqing crude oil spot price as the explained variable.
The data source is iFinD financial terminal.
b. Spot price of Shengli crude oil (COSLP): Shengli crude oil is an important kind of crude oil in China, which
belongs to sulfur-containing light crude oil in quality. Shengli crude oil is the largest oilfield of Sinopec and the
second largest oilfield in China. Therefore, this paper selects Shengli crude oil spot price as the explained variable.
The data source is iFinD financial terminal.
Independent variable
a. WTI crude oil price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) the representative of North American crude oil. WTI
crude oil price can well reflect the market supply and demand situation of Cushing, Oklahoma, the largest oil
trading and logistics center in the world. It is the benchmark price to measure the changes of crude oil price in
the international energy market. WTI crude oil in New York reflects the demand for crude oil in the U.S. market,
so this paper selects the price of WTI crude oil as the explanatory variable. The data source is iFinD financial
terminal.
b. Brent crude oil: The Brent crude oil pricing system composed of Brent crude oil futures and spot markets
covers at most 80% of the world's crude oil trading volume. At present, about 70% of the world's spot crude oil
is priced by Brent system. Brent crude oil reflects the demand of European market for crude oil, so this paper
selects Brent crude oil price as the explanatory variable. The data source is iFinD financial terminal.
c. Dubai crude oil: The Middle East is the largest oil production base in the world. The price of Dubai crude
oil is their benchmark oil, which often reflects the demand for crude oil in Asia. Therefore, this paper selects
Dubai crude oil price as the explanatory variable. The data source is iFinD financial terminal.
• Control variable
a. Nominal US dollar index: The nominal US dollar index is a comprehensive indicator to measure the
exchange rate change degree of the United States dollar to a basket of currencies in the international foreign
exchange market. It measures the strength and weakness of the dollar by calculating the comprehensive rate of
change between the United States dollar and the selected package currency, thus indirectly reflecting the changes
in the competitiveness of the United States exports and the import cost. The index reflects the US dollar against
26 currencies, namely, a broad weighted index of exchange rates including currencies of developed and
developing economies. The United States is the world's largest consumer of crude oil, so the economic situation
of the United States directly affects the global crude oil market. Therefore, this paper chooses the nominal dollar
index (USDX) as one of the control variables with the data coming from iFinD financial terminal.
b. Purchasing manager index: PMI is a physical examination table to measure a country's manufacturing
industry, and it is a very important subsidiary index in the economic advance index. It is usually closely related
to the metal demand index, because it can be regarded as an effective indicator of the change of metal demand
growth rate. Considering the impact of supply and demand on oil prices, this paper selects purchasing manager
index (PMI) as one of the control variables with the data coming from iFinD financial terminal.
c. Macroeconomic prosperity index: Macroeconomic prosperity index is compiled according to the business
status and future development trend of the enterprise, including lagging index, leading index, early warning index
and consistent index. Considering that the current situation of economic development such as social demand,
1148 Rong Guo et al. / Procedia Computer Science 199 (2022) 1144–1151
Rong Guo, Yanhui Chen, Jinhong Jackson Mi / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2017) 000–000

social employment and social income will affect the domestic crude oil price, this paper selects the
macroeconomic climate consistency index (MECI) as one of the control variables with the data coming from
iFinD financial terminal.
In order to avoid spurious regression, the unit root test is conducted for each variable. The test results show
that the purchasing manager index (PMI) is a stationary series, and other variables are non-stationary in the
sample period. This paper uses logarithmic difference method to make the non-stationary data to be stationary,
namely DlnSC, DlnCOSLP, DlnWTI, DlnBrent, DlnDuB, DlnUSDX, DlnMECI. Based on the availability of
data, this paper selects 195 groups of monthly data from January 2005 to March 2021. The descriptive statistics
of the data are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max ADF test(Prob)

sc 195 70.752 26.918 22.220 134.090 0.3648
coslp 195 68.408 26.089 23.310 125.400 0.3284
wti 195 69.710 22.399 21.780 138.490 0.2918
brent 195 74.379 25.207 28.430 138.660 0.3646
dub 195 71.725 24.849 20.450 131.420 0.2886
usdx 195 98.082 8.274 83.910 113.680 0.5294
pmi 195 51.649 2.811 35.700 59.200 0.0000
meci 195 99.659 3.993 84.830 110.590 0.8397
lnsc 195 4.185 0.393 3.101 4.899 0.2494
lncoslp 195 4.152 0.387 3.149 4.832 0.2116
lndub 195 4.211 0.357 3.018 4.878 0.1412
lnusdx 195 4.582 0.084 4.430 4.733 0.5532
lnwti 195 4.192 0.331 3.081 4.931 0.2010
lnbrent 195 4.252 0.342 3.347 4.932 0.2725
lnmeci 195 4.601 0.041 4.441 4.706 0.7905
dlnsc 194 0.002 0.108 -0.471 0.359 0.0000
dlncoslp 194 0.003 0.107 -0.422 0.272 0.0000
dlnwti 194 0.001 0.102 -0.589 0.452 0.0000
dlnbrent 194 0.002 0.092 -0.425 0.307 0.0000
dlndub 194 0.003 0.106 -0.501 0.381 0.0000
dlnusdx 194 0.000 0.015 -0.111 0.063 0.0000
dlnmeci 194 0.001 0.011 -0.041 0.058 0.0000

4.2. The basic model for quantile regression

This paper adopts quantile regression method to analyze the influence of international oil price on the crude
oil price in China. The following measurement models are constructed:
𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 = 𝛽𝛽0 + 𝛽𝛽1 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽2 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽3 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽4 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝜀𝜀𝑡𝑡 (1)

𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 = 𝛽𝛽0 + 𝛽𝛽1 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽2 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽3 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽4 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝜀𝜀𝑡𝑡 (2)

𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 = 𝛽𝛽0 + 𝛽𝛽1 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽2 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽3 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽4 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝜀𝜀𝑡𝑡 (3)

𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 = 𝛽𝛽0 + 𝛽𝛽1 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽2 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽3 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽4 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝜀𝜀𝑡𝑡 (4)

𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 = 𝛽𝛽0 + 𝛽𝛽1 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽2 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽3 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽4 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝜀𝜀𝑡𝑡 (5)

𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 = 𝛽𝛽0 + 𝛽𝛽1 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽2 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑋𝑋𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽3 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽4 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡 + 𝜀𝜀𝑡𝑡 (6)
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4.3. Test results

In order to further analyze the impact of international crude oil spot price on China's crude oil spot price at
different quantile levels, this paper uses Stata software for quantile regression. Regression results show that the
spot market prices of Daqing Oilfield and Shengli Oilfield have passed the significance test of variables at each
quantile. For Daqing crude oil spot price and Shengli crude oil spot price, with the increase of quantile, the
quantile regression coefficient of WTI spot price and Brent spot price presents a gradual downward trend. This
shows that with the increase of quantile, the impact of every 1% increase in foreign crude oil price on domestic
crude oil spot price is decreasing. However, with the increase of quantile, there is little difference between Dubai
crude oil price and domestic crude oil price.

Table 2. Quantile test of the influence of international crude oil spot price on Daqing Oilfield spot price.

Quantile
0.1 0.25 0.5 0.75 0.9
Variable
dlnwti 0.5975*** 0.4754*** 0.2177** 0.2109*** 0.1176
(4.3455) (5.0843) (2.4308) (3.4945) (1.1152)
dlnusdx -3.5284*** -3.3261*** -2.8267*** -1.7108*** -0.8783
(-3.8003) (-5.2687) (-4.6737) (-4.1980) (-1.2338)
pmi 0.0103* 0.0090** 0.0057* 0.0041* 0.0002
Model 1
(1.9646) (2.5444) (1.6851) (1.8040) (0.0586)
dlnmeci 0.4995 -0.8229 0.1538 0.2632 1.0928
(0.3746) (-0.9076) (0.1770) (0.4497) (1.0688)
_cons -0.6367** -0.5177*** -0.2968* -0.1586 0.0815
(-2.3572) (-2.8191) (-1.6866) (-1.3377) (0.3935)
dlnbrent 0.6804*** 0.5302*** 0.1827** 0.2242*** 0.1022
(6.0259) (4.7741) (1.9962) (3.2954) (0.8119)
dlnusdx -3.5365*** -3.6126*** -3.0886*** -1.6094*** -1.3523*
(-5.2155) (-5.4163) (-5.6179) (-3.9385) (-1.7889)
pmi 0.0088** 0.0071* 0.0055* 0.0046* 0.0005
Model 2
(2.2781) (1.8567) (1.7528) (1.9571) (0.1059)
dlnmeci 0.5049 -0.6802 0.1207 0.1866 1.0184
(0.5172) (-0.7083) (0.1524) (0.3172) (0.9356)
_cons -0.5604 ***
-0.4199 **
-0.2829 *
-0.1844 0.0649
(-2.7960) (-2.1297) (-1.7411) (-1.5264) (0.2906)
dlndub 0.9725*** 1.0238*** 0.9999*** 1.0093*** 1.0039***
(15.3506) (43.0323) (49.8770) (34.8161) (15.9372)
dlnusdx -0.3376 -0.1740 -0.1179 -0.2398 -0.1019
(-0.7764) (-1.0657) (-0.8570) (-1.2053) (-0.2357)
pmi 0.0027 0.0007 0.0003 -0.0008 -0.0001
Model 3
(1.2096) (0.7761) (0.4138) (-0.7462) (-0.0547)
dlnmeci -1.1771** -0.7138*** 0.0371 0.1833 0.3854
(-2.0779) (-3.3549) (0.2067) (0.7072) (0.6841)
_cons -0.1693 -0.0470 -0.0146 0.0530 0.0365
(-1.4687) (-1.0850) (-0.4016) (1.0053) (0.3184)
Notes: *, **, and *** indicate that the null hypothesis is rejected at the 10 %, 5% or 1% significance level
1150 Rong Guo et al. / Procedia Computer Science 199 (2022) 1144–1151
Rong Guo, Yanhui Chen, Jinhong Jackson Mi / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2017) 000–000

Table 3. Quantile test of the influence of international crude oil spot price on Shengli Oilfield spot price.

Quantile
0.1 0.25 0.5 0.75 0.9
Variable
dlnwti 0.5814*** 0.4549*** 0.2367*** 0.2248*** 0.0965
(5.3410) (5.8397) (3.1165) (2.8571) (0.6174)
dlnusdx -3.2202 ***
-3.6227 ***
-2.9711 ***
-1.7528 ***
-0.8398
(-4.3812) (-6.8867) (-5.7944) (-3.2997) (-0.7955)
pmi 0.0035 0.0101*** 0.0053* 0.0050* 0.0042
Model4
(0.8416) (3.4158) (1.8406) (1.6878) (0.7117)
dlnmeci 0.3644 -0.3516 0.1586 0.5908 1.4013
(0.3452) (-0.4653) (0.2154) (0.7743) (0.9241)
_cons -0.2830 -0.5753*** -0.2710* -0.2053 -0.1197
(-1.3235) (-3.7596) (-1.8166) (-1.3282) (-0.3897)
dlnbrent 0.6749*** 0.4907*** 0.2376*** 0.1991** 0.0223
(5.5822) (5.2509) (2.9168) (2.2926) (0.1190)
dlnusdx -2.9674 ***
-3.6540 ***
-2.7846 ***
-1.8911 ***
-0.6727
(-4.0870) (-6.5109) (-5.6922) (-3.6262) (-0.5974)
pmi 0.0048 0.0091*** 0.0054* 0.0056* 0.0078
Model5
(1.1580) (2.8394) (1.9361) (1.8862) (1.2154)
dlnmeci 0.4154 -0.3487 0.1823 0.6461 1.4628
(0.3973) (-0.4315) (0.2588) (0.8604) (0.9020)
_cons -0.3500 -0.5242*** -0.2760* -0.2382 -0.3029
(-1.6311) (-3.1599) (-1.9088) (-1.5453) (-0.9100)
dlndub 0.9460*** 0.9968*** 0.9707*** 0.9318*** 0.9336***
(8.8914) (28.8671) (35.9461) (28.2533) (10.8366)
dlnusdx -0.6088 -0.3294 -0.2472 -0.1141 0.0159
(-0.8338) (-1.3901) (-1.3338) (-0.5042) (0.0269)
pmi 0.0031 0.0038*** 0.0019* 0.0023** 0.0007
Model6
(0.8221) (3.1146) (1.9635) (2.0168) (0.2435)
dlnmeci -0.7061 -0.5933* -0.0576 -0.0178 0.2891
(-0.7422) (-1.9214) (-0.2386) (-0.0603) (0.3753)
_cons -0.1969 -0.2136 ***
-0.0943 *
-0.1002 *
-0.0008
(-1.0173) (-3.4003) (-1.9189) (-1.6693) (-0.0052)
Notes: *, **, and *** indicate that the null hypothesis is rejected at the 10 %, 5% or 1% significance level

5. CONCLUSION

Based on the monthly data from January 2005 to March 2021, this paper selects the spot price of crude oil
from Daqing Oilfield and Shengli Oilfield as the research objects, and analyzes the impact of international spot
price of crude oil on domestic spot price of crude oil. The results show that international oil price has a significant
positive impact on domestic oil price. The control variable PMI is significantly positively correlated with the
domestic crude oil price, and nominal US dollar index has a negative impact on the domestic crude oil price.
Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: First, it is necessary to
actively participate in international oil pricing. For a long time, European and American countries have followed
the crude oil pricing model based on futures price, and established the price system of "futures spot forward and
other derivatives". In the traditional international crude oil price system, futures with good liquidity are used for
price discovery in the international market, futures are linked with spot through forward derivatives, and a small
amount of spot trading is used for supplementary adjustment. At the same time, due to the strong liquidity of
crude oil futures contracts and similar crude oil varieties, arbitrage activities between different futures contracts
also strengthen the price linkage between WTI and Brent crude oil futures. Therefore, it is necessary to actively
build a domestic crude oil trading market with international influence, and influence the pricing power by
promoting the opening of energy trading market and establishing enterprise alliance. In this regard, on March 26,
 Rong Guo et al. / Procedia Computer Science 199 (2022) 1144–1151 1151
Rong Guo, Yanhui Chen, Jinhong Jackson Mi/ Procedia Computer Science 00 (2017) 000–000

2018, Shanghai crude oil futures was officially listed and traded in Shanghai International Energy Trading Center,
a subsidiary of Shanghai Futures Exchange, which not only meets the needs of relevant domestic enterprises to
hedge in the crude oil futures market, but also is an important attempt to de dollarize bulk commodity trading,
which is more conducive to ensuring the safety of oil prices and enhancing the voice of oil prices. In the future,
we can further study the discovery function of China's crude oil futures price from this direction.
Secondly, it is of great significance to establish a standardized and efficient domestic crude oil market. By
expanding the crude oil information system, improving the crude oil circulation system, and innovating futures
products, we can optimize the domestic crude oil market structure and improve the activity and risk resistance of
China's crude oil market.
Finally, we should slow down the impact of international oil pricing. We should strengthen the monitoring of
international oil pricing, strengthen the construction of price early warning system, and comprehensively use
monetary policy, trade regulation, financial strategy and other measures to maintain the healthy development of
domestic crude oil market.

Acknowledgements

This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China [No. 71701127], National Statistical
Science Research [No. 2020LY048] and Shanghai Soft Science Research Funds [No. 20692191100].

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