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Abstract
I. INTRODUCTION
The financial turmoil that unfolded in 2008 has its roots in US sub-
prime mortgages and the markets for structured products and related
financial instruments, namely Collateralized Debt Obligations
(CDOs) and Credit Default Swaps (CDSs). In effect, these financial
innovations, together with a strong supporting cast that included
insurance companies, investment and commercial banks, hedge
funds, and rating agencies, are widely believed to be responsible for
the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
The coming sections of this first part of the article attempt to outline the
configuration of conventional securitization and its credit structures
and the effect they have on systemic risk. Subsequently, the evolution
of systemic stress is explored with an overall objective of developing
a better understanding of the causes of the global financial crisis.
A. Conventional Securitization
Rating
Agencies
Asset
Manager
Manages portfolio assign ratings
management fee
Senior Notes
AAA
principal proceeds from
investment notes Mezzanine Notes
Collateral Issuer AAA
Pool collateral SPV
proceeds and
principal and interest Equity
interest Unrated
fiduciary underwriting hedge
duties
Trustee, Arranger,
Custodian, Underwriter & Hedge
Paying Agent Placement Agent Counterparty
a diversified asset pool (BIS, 2008: 47; Krahnen and Wilde, 2006:
6). This trait endows the CDOs, especially the senior tranches, with
a low expected loss but a high variance of loss or a high vulnerability
to the business cycle (BIS, 2008: 14). Put differently, CDO tranches
have been shown to exhibit an all-or-nothing risk profile whereby
they are expected to perform well in most circumstances but have a
“Cliff Effect,” as they experience significant losses during times of
stress (BIS, 2008: 37; 54).
For its part, speculation within the CDO framework had an
instrumental role in the destabilization of the global financial markets
through its effect on augmenting and intensifying counterparty risk,
concentration risk and liquidity risk as it took advantage of the efforts
to manage credit risk. The destabilization was, in effect, driven by
counterparty risks since the settlement of the CDS contracts posed
unique challenges due to the modality of settlement if a credit
event occurs, especially with the ambiguous valuation mechanisms
involved. Essentially, CDSs can either be settled physically or
through cash payment. In effect, in a credit event, the protection
seller pays the protection buyer the par value of the security and in
return takes possession of the debt obligation of the reference entity
(physical settlement), or the protection seller pays the protection
buyer the difference between par value and the market price of the
debt obligation (cash settlement). The latter option was more realistic
in the majority of transactions in the market.
Thus, as the ratio of CDS notional value to reference debt largely
exceeded 1:1, due to speculation and the presence of synthetic
CDOs, the CDS market moved from the hedging domain into that of
excessive speculation with its accompanying need for cash settlement
(of a much larger amount) at the time of a credit event. Also, the lack
of transparency in the CDS market, because all contracts are privately
negotiated, and the complicated nature of the CDOs made the pricing
of these instruments for cash settlement an extremely difficult task
(Stulz, 2010). Therefore, for all intents and purposes, the CDS
system: (i) was designed for a greater reliance on cash settlement; (ii)
was based on unattainable pricing capacity; and (iii) evolved into a
much larger outstanding notional amount.
The end result is that the global financial system became entangled
in a complex inter-linked chain of privately negotiated and opaque
CDS transactions (and liabilities) between financial institutions,
many of whom were active players from the unregulated hedge fund
industry. The implications of this chain on systemic risk stem from
the inability of the poorly capitalized and unregulated links within
the CDS chain (i.e., hedge funds) to meet their debt obligations. This
led the system to concentrate on the strongest links―such as AIG,
Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns―which can cause the complete
framework to unravel in times of systemic stress.
when their low introductory interest rates expired and were reset to
higher market rates (Harvard, 2008: 20).
In effect, just as much of the sub-prime loans were hitting their
reset dates, the underlying indexes on adjustable-rate loans increased
by about three-percentage points (due to monetary tightening by the
Federal Reserve) thereby exposing the sub-prime borrowers to much
higher monthly mortgage payments. This exposure, when coupled
with very low equity in the homes7 (due to excess leverage) and a
reduction in house prices, served to increase the default rates and
subsequently the foreclosure rates in the housing market, as many
borrowers owed more on their mortgage than the value of their
property (Harvard, 2008). As can be expected, foreclosure filings
(default notices, auction sales notices and bank repossessions) in
2007 were up about 148 percent from their 2005 levels (RealtyTrac,
2008).
Consequently, the market for structured products based on
mortgages began its cycle of collapse with institutional investors, such
as commercial and investment banks as well as insurance companies
and hedge funds, being hit the hardest. This was due to steep losses
in their CDO portfolios in addition to vulnerable positions in the
increasingly cascading CDSs market.
The unraveling of the CDS chain combined with the settlement
structure of the CDS transactions also had a significant impact on
liquidity in the global financial system. In effect, the ensuing freeze
of the global credit markets seemed only natural as virtually no one
was able to decipher the exposure their counterparty had to different
events of default (Stiglitz, 2009). In addition to the global credit
freeze, the liquidity in the financial markets was exacerbated due
to the winding-down of positions by hedge funds (and other CDS
players) in a disorderly manner (Cole, Feldberg and Lynch, 2007:
15).
Essentially, margin calls and unplanned asset sales due to
investor redemption resulted in downward pressures on asset prices,
necessitating further sales and deeper declines in prices (BIS, 2008:
26). This accelerating and self-sustaining downward spiral developed
7 Higher home equity increases the ability and the incentive of the borrowers to make
on-time payments.
into a liquidity crisis as prices cascaded in the CDS market and market
participants were unable to raise the needed liquidity to meet their
obligations (MFA, 2005: 55).
It is also important to highlight the repercussions of the ensuing
liquidity crisis on the investors of CDOs, especially for the senior
tranches. In essence, the dual facts that an increasing portion of the
CDO issuances were securitized by CDSs (Synthetic CDOs) and that
the credit protection of AAA-rated cash CDOs was highly doubtful
(due to the CDS market crash and the clear inability of the insurers
to meet their obligations) both led to massive write-downs by some
of the largest institutional investors8 in the world, bringing many of
them to the brink of collapse, as they had difficulty in acquiring the
necessary funds to re-capitalize and survive.
Interestingly, the rating agencies, as legitimizers of the overall
structure of CDOs (especially with their credit enhancements), were
faced with a dilemma throughout these unfolding events. On the
one hand, the credit quality of the CDOs was clearly deteriorating,
warranting rating downgrades; on the other hand, it also became
apparent that any such moves would push the global financial crisis
further into the abyss.9 The same logic was espoused in the rating
of monolines and other major participants in the CDS market. This
provides a good example of how effects (objective credit ratings)
can evolve into causes (systemic collapse) in an improper and
irresponsible global financial architecture.
In the end, it suddenly became clear that the house of cards that
was intricately built by the international financial markets and made
up of seemingly sophisticated financial innovations had housing
prices as its foundation. When housing prices crashed in a single
country, the whole global system crumbled, heralding the systemic
shock that was neither anticipated nor accounted for.
8 The financial institutions were implicated due to investments in the CDOs and the
inability to sell down the inventory after the sub-prime crisis unfolded in 2007.
9 They would also affect the fee-generating capacity of one of the most lucrative
markets for credit ratings.
After the unfolding of the global financial crisis, there was widespread
commentary in the Islamic finance industry regarding the relatively
small impact that the crisis has had on it due to its asset-backed
nature (as opposed to being debt-based) and its lack of superficially
innovative, financially engineered products that included internal and
external credit enhancement. The discourse was largely directed at
the partisans of the conventional finance industry with the invariable
recommendation to adopt the SharÊÑah economic principles that
underlie contemporary Islamic finance in order to increase the
prospects for sustainable economic growth and wealth generation.
Specifically, from a normative standpoint, the three economic
pillars of the SharÊÑah―namely the prohibitions on ribÉ (usury),
gharar (excessive uncertainty) and maysir (gambling)―would have
surely limited the scope and magnitude of the financial crisis.10 In
particular, the prohibition of ribÉ seeks to eliminate the injustices
linked to the financial slavery of individuals by opportunistic money
lenders who strive to benefit from the sanctity of debt repayment
obligations in Islam without any of the commensurate risks that exist
in the world of commerce. In the context of gharar, the SharÊÑah
attempts to increase the certainty of commercial transactions by
reducing the information asymmetry as well as prohibiting the
malicious devouring of the property of others by dishonesty,
deception, or taking advantage of informational ignorance. As for
maysir, the objective of Islamic jurisprudence is the promotion of a
productive work ethic that increases social welfare (individually and
as a society) as opposed to concentrating on the unearned gains of
gambling with all its associated anti-social behavior.
However, as one moves from the normative to the practical
sphere (with the participation of SharÊÑah scholars, legal counsels and
bankers), one can observe that the Islamic religious directives begin
to diverge in practice in response to the incentives and constraints that
exist both implicitly and explicitly to the various participants in the
10 The reason for mentioning “limited” as opposed to “eliminated” is not due to the
religion but rather in how humans choose to adhere to it.
A. Credit Derivatives
The issue of derivatives was first explored by the OIC Islamic Fiqh
Academy in Jeddah in their Seventh Session in May 1992. The view
was that derivative contracts are modern forms of contracts with
no equivalence in Islamic jurisprudence and due to their perceived
negative effects on the financial markets they were deemed
impermissible for usage in the Islamic finance industry.
Since the Islamic Fiqh Academy’s ruling, there have been some
initiatives in recent years to help the Islamic finance industry cope
with exposures in the market risk domain with a focus on volatility
in the currency markets and mark-up rates (i.e., benchmark rates or
14 The growing importance, in terms of size, of the markets for Index CDS and the
Basket CDS (both of which have multiple reference securities) as opposed to the
CDS on particular reference entities weaken the pricing benefit arguments of credit
markets.
15 Part of the structural deficiency in the conventional finance realm is the deductibility
of interest cost in the Western taxation system, which provides a misguided subsidy
for amassing debt. This is in contrast to full dividend taxation.
16 The ownership is thought to be a factor of the corporeal traits of an asset (along with
legitimate legal title) rather than the rights of its cash flows (also with a legitimate
legal title).
17 The risk reduction is also one of the rationales for the CDO structures in that the
idiosyncratic risks are diversified in a diverse pool of assets. But the returns are not
averaged in the CDO structure due to tranching.
18 For operating costs, the potential for investments increasing economies of scale
can have positive economic effects. For financing costs, the originator can benefit
from low financing costs if the assets transferred have a higher credit rating than the
originator itself.
19 If the assets are actually transferred and which include the repurchase of the asset at
a predetermined nominal value.
party apart from cases where the guarantee is not linked in any manner
to the actual securitization contract and the fees involved do not
exceed the actual administrative expenses (AAOIFI, Shari’a Standard
No. 17, Para. 5/1/8/7, 2010). However, the use of a profit equalization
reserve is encouraged as a form of communal risk management.
This feature is to ensure that the guarantees do not distract the
investors from the fundamentals of the assets underlying the ÎukËk
and do not place a burden of debt on the fund seeker in its efforts to
proceed with value-added investments. In addition, the lack of focus
on external credit enhancements serves to undermine the incentive
distortions due to the fee-based insurance arrangements and the
associated concentration on what can be called the “supremacy of the
strongest link” in the credit management chain.
The fourth feature of ÎukËk can be linked to speculation. In effect,
trading ÎukËk in assets that are yet to be determined (or non-existent)
is not permitted, nor in ÎukËk that are linked to assets that have
already been sold (AAOIFI, Shari’a Standard No. 17, Para. 5/2/8 and
5/2/15, 2010). The objective here can be conjectured to center on the
reduction of gharar (excessive uncertainty) and focus the financing
on productive activities that provide real economic substance to their
owners and to society, rather than speculative bets with very little, if
any, value-added qualities.
agreements are legally structured. This, of course, does not mean that
the ends justify the means; rather, it simply espouses the position that
has been articulated by Ayoub (2012: 24) that there needs to be “a
more scientific approach in properly defining the means and ends
of Islamic finance in a manner that accounts for their continuously
evolving manifestations in light of contemporary challenges and
opportunities in the real economy.”
In essence, building on the arguments elaborated by Saeed and
Salah (2012) with regard to ÎukËk structures, it could be contended
that the discourse in the securitization debate can benefit from a
reduced focus on variables such as which contractual form of assets
can be securitized and in what percentage (which are quite arbitrary)
and a greater concentration on the actual nature of the underlying
assets. This proposition takes special importance especially after the
AAOIFI’s Shari’a Board statement in February 2008 that stipulated
the importance of having the majority of assets in the ÎukËk structure
being characterized with transfer of ownership rights over tangible
assets (e.g., real estate) or usufructs and services (e.g., leasehold
rights, toll road concessions, etc.).20
Effectively, AAOIFI’s stance espoused the position that trading
in ÎukËk was reserved for those structures with ijÉrah contracts as the
underlying assets since only they can endow the investors with legal
ownership rights of the transferred assets. It may be discerned that
AAOIFI’s position is likely derived from the professed position by
some SharÊÑah scholars such as Justice Usmani (also the Chairman
of the AAOIFI SharÊÑah Board) who have linked the securitization of
murÉbaÍah (installment sale) transactions to the prohibition of bayÑ
al-dayn (sale of debt) as well as other proscribed practices (Ariff, Iqbal
and Mohamad, 2012; Usmani, 1998: 149-150). Consequently, the
murÉbaÍah structures and similar “debt” contracts, even those secured
by real and productive assets formalized by religiously legitimate
contracts, were deemed not suitable for securitization. This is despite
the fact that the arbitrary nature of contractual classifications21 and
20 Available at http://www.aaoifi.com/aaoifi_sb_ÎukËk_Feb2008_Eng.pdf.
21 An ijÉrah contract with a promise to give the property as a gift at maturity (or for a
very small amount) and a secured murÉbaÍah contract are essentially the same from
the economic and legal standpoints.
22 Under ijÉrah, the burdens include asset ownership risks and the responsibility for the
maintenance and upkeep of the assets. Of course, these risks and burdens tend to be
shifted in practice to the lessee, but this comes at a cost of circumventing the spirit
of the SharÊÑah.
23 Trading in mushÉrakah ÎukËk is also allowed, but it amounts more to a mutual fund.
24 The consideration of the cash flows is important for the ÎukËk to exist in a stand-
alone fashion without any form of guarantees, which are effectively prohibited.
25 To be sure, there are murÉbaÍah ÎukËk; however, they are prohibited from being
traded in the secondary markets because the process is viewed as a form of trading
in debt. The financial institution can, however, try to convince the customer to take
an ijÉrah financing with binding promises for lease payments as well as the purchase
and sale undertaking, which can facilitate securitization. The second option is only a
form of the first with the same economic payoffs. Interestingly, Standard and Poor’s
stated: “[T]ypically, we consider that lending policies are not materially different
between Islamic and Conventional Banks” (S&P, 2010: 27).
with the rating for unsecured debt securities by the originator. Along
the same lines, it should be stated here that within the asset-based
framework, there is usually little disclosure (if any) of the physical
assets underlying the ÎukËk issuance since the focus is on the obligor
(Dey and Ure, 2011: 147-148).
Asset-backed ÎukËk, on the other hand, are wholly dependent
on the cash flows of the underlying assets, which are transferred to
the SPV, and entail no formal guarantees for the principal or coupon
payments from the originator. Thus, the financial and economic
attributes of the issuance alongside the legal structure for the asset
recourse in the event of originator insolvency become of prime
importance in valuing the expected payoffs of the ÎukËk until maturity.
Naturally, since the focus is on a predetermined underlying, the full
disclosure of the asset specifics in addition to their risk and return
characteristics (historical and implied) is an indispensable necessity
to investors.
Thus, it can be construed that the main features differentiating
asset-based ÎukËk from asset-backed ÎukËk are the external credit
enhancements in the form of guarantees as well as the nature of the
relationship between the assets underlying securitization and their
originator. Once more, as observed by many commentators and
Islamic finance experts, a guarantee by a third party (i.e., insurance
company or government agency) has the exact same effect as the one
offered by the originator in that the rating will depend on the entity
with the stronger credit standing (Ali, 2011). With that, it should be
stated at this juncture that the arguments for the permissibility of
sovereign-backed ÎukËk (or even multi-lateral ones as in the case
of the Islamic Development Bank) can be understood within the
context of a public good that promotes maÎlaÍah (public interest);
this rationale, however, disappears within the realm of finance for
profit-oriented private sector entities.
Subsequent to the earlier elaboration of the concept of
securitization in Islamic finance, and in light of the aforementioned
distinction between asset-based and asset-backed ÎukËk, it should be
quite surprising to learn that the rating agencies acknowledge that
most of the ÎukËk that they rate are actually asset-based in nature.
In fact, in a relatively recent study by the International SharÊÑah
Research Academy for Islamic Finance (ISRA) it was found that 549
out of 560 ÎukËk issues (about 98 percent of the total) were asset-
based ÎukËk (Dusuki and Mokhtar, 2010).
Notwithstanding the nature of the underlying in the ÎukËk
structure, it should be equally startling to observe that there have
been some attempts to introduce the tranching “technology” to
Islamic securitization in an effort to improve the credit ratings of
some ÎukËk issuances. These include the Tamweel US$ 210 million
ÎukËk issuance in 2007 and the Sorouh Real Estate US$ 1.1 billion
muÌÉrabah structure in 2008, which achieved tranching through a
musÉwamah (negotiation) agreement. Both of these structures seem
to feature different profit-rates and risk characteristics based on the
tenor of the ÎukËk shares. In the absence of details of the transaction,
one can discern that what is effectively being created is higher-rated
tranches as the shorter-tenors while the longer-term tenors are granted
lower ratings. For the Sorouh ØukËk, the tranches achieved a rating of
A, BBB+ and BBB-.
As for external credit enhancements, there was the interesting
belief by some Islamic finance commentators that the obstacle to
effective securitization was the dearth of religiously-sanctioned
institutional arrangements, such as takÉful monoline insurance
companies; the recommendation put forth to alleviate that constraint
being the less optimal usage (in a religious sense) of conventional
insurance (Manjoo, 2005: 64-66).
With that, it should be stated that the nature of the ÎukËk market―
as one dominated by asset-based securities with an attempted creep of
tranching and external credit enhancements―does present a paradox.
This is because it was clearly stated by the SharÊÑah regulatory
bodies that ÎukËk are tradable certificates of equal value representing
undivided shares of common ownership of assets.26 In addition, it
was also argued earlier that both investors and fund-seekers in the
capital markets jointly benefit from the asset-backed structures in
securitization. Finally, it has been distinctly shown in the previous
sections that internal and external credit enhancements (tranching
and guarantees) served a vital role in grossly distorting the incentives
of securitization in the conventional realm, which, in turn, led to
26 Again, it may be argued that ownership can also entail rights over a cash flow stream
from a legitimate, and religiously sanctioned real-economy transaction.
27 Most ÎukËk buyers are in Muslim countries by virtue of the size of the domestic
ÎukËk issuances as well as the regional uptake in the international ÎukËk issuances
(IIFM, 2011).
28 It is no secret that the monetary authorities in the Gulf region were instrumental in
assisting the banking sector in overcoming the challenges of the global financial
crisis. In the absence of more complete public information, it would be difficult
to appropriately analyze the effect of the crisis on the Islamic finance industry.
However, it is apparent that the decline in the industry was the minimum type of
damage that could have been sustained and could have been much worse without
state monetary intervention.
IV. CONCLUSION
References