Estimated Per Capita Water Usage

Associated with Different Levels of Water

Scarcity Risk in Arid and Semiarid Regions

R. D. G. Rodriguez, F. F. Pruski &

V. P. Singh

Water Resources Management

An International Journal - Published
for the European Water Resources
Association (EWRA)

ISSN 0920-4741

Water Resour Manage

DOI 10.1007/s11269-016-1236-7

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 Author's personal copy
Water Resour Manage
DOI 10.1007/s11269-016-1236-7

Estimated Per Capita Water Usage Associated

with Different Levels of Water Scarcity Risk in Arid
and Semiarid Regions

R. D. G. Rodriguez 1 & F. F. Pruski 2 & V. P. Singh 3

Received: 22 October 2014 / Accepted: 14 January 2016

# Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Abstract Water scarcity in arid and semi-arid regions is a great economic, environmental and
social problem, where the people living in these regions have to use technologies, such as
cistern, to ensure water for their survival. Given the difficulties in these regions, this paper aims
to propose a methodology to estimate per capita water use for different levels of water shortage
risk, ensuring water supply under the conditions of arid and semi-arid regions; and present a
case study for the Brazilian semi-arid region. The methodology is based on analysis of spatial
and temporal risks of water shortage in the cisterns. Analysis of the temporal risk of water
shortage is based on the premise that the cistern is without water for 3 consecutive days with
return periods of 5, 10 and 20 years. To ascertain the spatial risk of per capita water use
associated with these return periods in hydrologically homogeneous regions, we evaluate the
confidence interval associated with the average monthly water use. Thus, the proposed
methodology allows to determine the potential water use in each homogeneous region. For
the Brazilian semiarid region it is possible to identify the areas where local population has a
greater restriction on the access to water (central semiarid region) and areas where there is
greater water availability (north and south of the semi-arid). This variation of water availability
allows to adapt management measures accounting for the ground conditions of each location,
in order to meet the water needs of the local population.

Keywords Rainwater harvesting . Drinking water . Water supply for human consumption .
Spatial risk . Temporal risk . Minimum water requirement for human health

* R. D. G. Rodriguez
rdgrodriguez76@gmail.com

1
CAPES Foundation, Ministry of Education of Brazil, Brasilia, Brazil
2
Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil
3
Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX
77843, USA
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R.D.G. Rodriguez et al.

1 Introduction

Arid and semiarid regions cover one-third of the world’s land area and are inhabited by almost
one billion people, and the greater part thereof is among the poorest populations in the world
(Malagnoux et al. 2007). Water scarcity in these regions is a critical question to be addressed
for overcoming obstacles to development (Cirilo 2008). According to UNESCO (1999), in
regions with insufficient water resources, fresh water is not more than 10 to 40 L/person/day.
The average water use per person in the semi-arid region of Brazil is 10 L/day (FUNDAJ
2014). While the survey conducted by the Social Organization DIACONIA Brazil revealed
that the consumption of water for drinking, cooking and oral hygiene in the Brazilian semi-arid
(human consumption) region is, on average, around 8.9 L/person/day (CGU 2011).
The World Health Organization (WHO) has defined that 20 liters of water per person per
day are needed to ensure the basic needs of a person, although this consumption is still
associated with a high risk of health problems (Howard and Bartram 2003). These can be
minimized, according to WHO, with a consumption of 50 L/person/day.
To ensure water for the survival of people who inhabit the arid and semi-arid regions of the
world, there is a great challenge to sustainable water management in these regions due to
geographical, hydrological, and climatic conditions and trans-border issues for some countries,
like Israel (Zaide 2007).
Besides spatial and/or temporal rainfall scarcity and other characteristics of arid and semi-
arid regions, high solar radiation in these regions causes significant evaporation and evapo-
transpiration. The high evaporation limits the use of dams or impoundments for water supply
for local population due to the negative water balance between captured rainwater and losses
by high evaporation and consumption. Even in Northeast Brazil (70 % of the area is
characterized as semi-arid), which is the second region with the largest number of dams
(açudes) in the world, second only to India, experience over the years has shown the
limitations to the use of dams due to high frequency of the lack of water during severe
droughts (ANA 2004). Also, long distances between dams and houses make access to water
difficult for families.
The high degree of dispersion of rural populations living in arid and semi-arid
regions renders infeasible the use of timely programs to meet water demands. Other
alternatives used for human consumption of water, such as draw-wells (cacimbão - -
the Portuguese word for dam) and tube wells, although less susceptible to the effects
of drought that dams are, have the same problem of distance, i.e., people have to
walk long distances for fetching water (ANA 2004).
The use of groundwater is also not feasible in these regions. The International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates that the greater part of groundwater in (semi-) arid regions is
fossil water and it is not sustainable (Scanlon et al. 2006).
This problem becomes worst due to high salinity of water and soil in arid and semi-arid
regions, which has significant economic, social and environmental impacts that are often
irreparable (Williams 1999). According to Southern California Salinity Coalition (SCSC) and
National Water Research Institute (NWRI) (2008), water salinity and soil salinity are higher in
arid regions because of two factors: the high rate of chemical weathering of earth materials,
such as soils, minerals, and rocks; and high evapotranspiration associated with low precipita-
tion, that, without proper leaching to remove salts, would lead to high soil salinity.
Desalination of water to supply the local population is not a viable alternative in many
countries, because it is related to the intensive use of energy (European Commission 2012). If
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Estimated Per Capita Water Usage Associated with Different Levels

the energy comes from the use of fossil fuels, this will increase emissions of greenhouse gases
(GHG). According European Commission (2012), the desalination installation at Carboneras,
which is Europe’s largest RO plant, uses one-third of the electricity supplied to Almeria
province. More than 700 Spanish desalination plants produce about 1.6 million m3 of water
per day. As a result, about 1.78 kg of CO2 is produced per m3 of water, the Spanish plants
produce about 2.8 million kg CO2 per day. It can therefore be concluded that desalination
contributes significantly to Spain’s overall GHG emissions, which have been skyrocketing to
+52.3 % in 2005 compared to 1990 levels (European Commission 2012).
Another environmental problem from desalination of water is the waste production, which
is usually poured into the soil without any criterion, causing increased erosion and soil
salinization.
The use of rainwater harvesting (RWH) may play an important economic, social and
environmental role in arid and semiarid regions of the world. Besides the low cost of this
technology, it is possible to widen water security and reduce impacts on the environment (El-
Sayed et al. 2010). This technology has the potential to supply water even in rural and peri-
urban areas that conventional technologies cannot (Kahinda et al. 2007), permitting easy water
access for local population, without the need to walk long distances to obtain water.
Due to the potential of this technology to supply water, regulations and incentives are
increasingly being developed worldwide, for example, India, United States and several
Caribbean islands (Domènech and Saurí 2011). Ishaku et al. (2012) observed that although
there are a potential in RWH to meet the water demand for most of the villages in the Nigeria,
the RWH has contributed only with a small proportion of water supply. The lack of funding for
bigger storage facilities and almost nonexistence of awareness creation on latest technology of
RWH are some one the problems identified in the region. Baguma and Loiskandl (2010) also
observed a significant relationship between adoption of RWH technologies and subsidy
provision in Uganda. The practice is currently spreading in rural South Africa, especially with
the financial assistance provided by the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry (DWAF)
(Kahinda et al. 2007). For other areas, such as Bangladesh and China’s semi-arid northwestern
region, where aquifer quality is deteriorating or aquifer levels are dropping, the RWH is a good
alternative, whereas it is frequently cheaper than transporting water from distant sources
(Thomas 2010; Cook et al. 2000; Islam et al. 2010).
In Brazil, there is the Brazilian Federal Government’s BWater for All^ program and the
BOne Million Cisterns Project^ (P1MC). Both initiatives have the objective of constructing
cisterns in the semi-arid region of Brazil. The BWater for All^ program builds cisterns in the
semi-arid region with a capacity to store 16,000 liters of water, which according to the Ministry
of National Integration is sufficient to sustain a family of five during a dry period of up to
6 months. However, FUNDAJ (2014) estimates that a cistern with a capacity of 12,000 liters is
enough to supply a family of five at a daily consumption of 10 liters per person for 8 months.
Garfì et al. (2011) assessed the BOne Million Cisterns Project^ (P1MC) and the BSpring
Assessment Program^ in the Jequitinhonha Valley, located in the semi-arid region of Brazil.
The Spring Assessment Program aims to improve quality and availability of water by means of
reforestation with native species, mainly in areas adjacent to springs. Therefore, this program is
considered as a solution to water scarcity based on the protection of springs (IRPAA 2009).
Results have indicated that P1MC is the most appropriate alternative for this region.
Therefore, due to water scarcity in arid and semi-arid regions and the importance of cisterns
as a source of water for these regions, it is necessary to evaluate the risk if these cisterns are not
sufficient to ensure water supply for human consumption, which will depend on the frequency
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R.D.G. Rodriguez et al.

and amount of precipitation and the end user (Khastagir and Jayasuriya 2010). Thus, this paper
aims to propose a methodology to estimate per capita water use for different levels of risk to
ensure water supply under the conditions of arid and semi-arid regions and present a case study
for the Brazilian semi-arid region.

2 Methods and Materials

The proposed methodology allows for associating human water use at different levels of risk of
water shortage. This contributes to alleviate the lack of information that currently exists,
especially in arid and semi-arid regions of underdeveloped and developing countries, and
permits to forecast the water use potential in these regions. The methodology is based on the
analysis of the temporal distribution of volume of water stored in the cistern and temporal and
spatial risk of water shortage in the cistern for a given per capita water use.

2.1 Estimation of Water Volume in the Cistern

The amount of water accumulated in the cistern on each day is based on the analysis of the
amount of water entering the cistern and the amount demanded. The analysis is performed on a
daily basis, using Eq. (1), discussed in Khastagir and Jayasuriya (2007),
S tþ1 ¼ S t þ Qt −Dt O≤S tþ1 ≤ C ð1Þ
where St+1 is the storage volume in the cistern at the end of t-th day (L/day); St is the storage
value at the beginning of t-th day (L/day); Qt is the runoff from the roof into the cistern on the
t-th day (L/day); Dt is the total demand for water on the t-th day (L/day); and C is the active
tank capacity.
The daily time period is important to ensure that there is sufficient water to meet the
domestic demand connected to rainwater use as far as possible. The analysis is performed for a
period of 20 years. The water evaporation from the cistern is not considered as the cistern is
closed. The simulation starts with the cistern being considered completely full. When the water
storage level (St+1) in the cistern on a particular day is greater than its capacity (C), the excess
water is discarded, and the cistern storage level at the end of the day will be reset as equal to C.
The amount of water entering the cistern depends on the amount of rainfall and the
characteristics of the water collection system, given as:

Qt ¼ ðPt −Pd ÞAt k ð2Þ

where Qt is the daily runoff (L/day); Pi is the rainfall on day i (mm); Pd is the rainfall discarded
cistern on day i (mm); At is the area in horizontal projection of the roof of the residence (m2);
and k is the runoff coefficient (decimal).
The first water rainfall event should not be exploited, because that washes the roof where
dirt is deposited from birds and animals, and dust. Studies have shown that the disposal of 1 to
2 mm from each rainfall event allows maintaining a better water quality (Souza et al. 2011;
Kus et al. 2010; Amin et al. 2013; DTU 2000). Thus, the value adopted is discarded rainfall
equal to 2 mm.
Not all the water that falls on the roof drains into the cistern, part of it ricochets off the roof
or is blown and a small portion back to the atmosphere. Most installers of cistern have an
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Estimated Per Capita Water Usage Associated with Different Levels

efficiency of 75 to 90 % (Krishna et al. 2005). For corrugated iron roofs well-constructed, the
runoff coefficients range of 0.8 to 0.85 (Gould and Nissen-Petersen 2003), for concrete-lined
ground catchments, ranges of 0.73 to 0.76 (Prinz 1996; Gould and Nissen-Petersen 2003).
Therefore, it is appropriate to adopt a runoff coefficient value of 0.8 (Lancaster 2006;
Department of Environmental and Aboriginal affairs Government of South Australia 1999).
According to Xu et al. (1997), when reservoirs are analyzed with a historic data record at
the project site, a single estimate of the capacity and other indexes is obtained, however, such
an approach does not give a measure of risk for these indexes caused by natural uncertainty
from inflow or operation. This fact, along with the high lack of data on the historical series of
rainfall in arid and semi-arid regions, especially in underdeveloped countries and in developing
countries, limits the application of the methodology presented. Thus, this study is based on a
smaller dependence on the characteristics of the database available and can make this a more
comprehensive method for overcoming the limitations related to the dependence on the
starting year of the series and the impossibility of associating certain parameters analyzed
for a return period.
For this, daily rainfall is obtained based on synthetic rainfall series generated by the
program Cligen developed by USDA - United States Department of Agriculture. The Cligen
is a stochastic weather generator which produces daily estimates of precipitation, temperature,
dewpoint, wind, and solar radiation for a single geographic point, using monthly parameters
(means, SD’s, skewness, etc.) derived from historic measurements.
The daily water demand (Dt) from the cisten will depend on the number of people in the
family and the water consumption per capita, given as:

Dt ¼ N p ; f q c ð3Þ

where Np,f is the number of persons in the family; and qc is the per capita water use (L/person/day).

2.2 Relationship between Per Capita Water Use and the Risk of Water
Unavailability for Consumption

The primary objective of using rainwater harvested in cisterns for domestic use in arid and
semi-arid regions is to ensure water supply in periods of water scarcity. Then, assessing the risk
of shortage is essential for the safe management of water resources.
Besides the analysis of risk of water use associated with water shortage in a particular
locality, it is essential to assess the risk of water scarcity in the region as a whole, so that
appropriate measures for actual conditions can be implemented, ensuring water to the residents
of the region. Thus, the methodology consists of analyzing the temporal and spatial risk of
water shortages, which are described below.

2.2.1 Analysis of Temporal Risk

As most people cannot last more than 3 days without water (Leavitt and Teagu 2014), the
consumption per capita was estimated, based on volume daily water in cistern, that results in 3
consecutive days without water in the cistern associated with a particular risk, i.e., associated
with return periods (T) of 5, 10 and 20 years. Thus, simulations were made using Eq. 1 for
each location corresponding to gauge stations, so that a particular per capita water use resulted
in a cistern without water for 3 consecutive days in each year.
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The annual series of per capita water use for each locality was simulated statistically, that
results in 3 days of the cistern without water, in order to identify the probabilistic model that
best fitted the data. The distributions considered were: Log-Normal two and three parameters,
Pearson III, Log-Pearson III and Weibull (Kite 1988).
The selection of distribution models for each series was performed using the Kolmogorov-
Smirnov (KS) test at the 5 % Level. In the K-S test, comparison was made between the
maximum deviation, in modulus, resulting from the differences between observed and theo-
retical values of frequencies, with the tabulated value based on sample size and significance
level. For the model probabilities to be considered appropriate, the calculated values should be
equal to or lower than the tabulated value for the K-S test.
After the selection of the probability distribution with the goodness-of-fit to the data of per
capita water use, the value of per capita water use was obtained, that resulted in the cistern
without water for 3 consecutive days, associated with return periods of 5, 10 and 20 years.

2.2.2 Analysis of Spatial Risk

To analyze the spatial risk of occurrence, in a given region, of per capita water use associated risks
of shortage water in 5, 10 and 20 years, the confidence interval was evaluated for the mean. The
estimated confidence intervals were used to obtain measures of uncertainty of the data analyzed.
Uncertainty analysis of a prediction enables to better analyze the error involved in the problem.
Although the confidence interval does not permit to calculate the actual magnitude of an
individual error, it is possible to group several estimates from different locations and then
observe the distribution of these errors.
When the parameter of interest is the population mean (μ), the confidence interval (C.I.) for
the parameter with probability 1 - α (significance level) that the interval contains true
parameter can be given as:

s s
C:I:ð1−αÞ : X −D pffiffiffi ≤μ ≤ X þ D pffiffiffi ð4Þ
n n

where X is the sample mean; s is the sample standard deviation; n is the sample size; and D is
the statistical distribution selected.
The t-distribution should be used when the population standard deviation (σ) is not known and
the sample size is small (n < 30). Otherwise, the normal distribution should be used. For better
accuracy of results, a value of α was adopted as equal to 0.005, corresponding to the 95 %
confidence levels, i.e., 95 % confident that the interval contains the true population mean.

2.3 Case Study

For application of the proposed methodology, we used as a case study the semi-arid region of Brazil.

2.3.1 Characterization of Study Area

According to official data from the Brazilian Ministry of National Integration, the semi-arid
region of Brazil covers an area of approximately 969,589 km2 (11.4 % of the Brazilian
territory) and comprises 1,133 municipalities across nine states (MI 2005): Alagoas, Bahia,
Ceará, Minas Gerais, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, and Sergipe.
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Estimated Per Capita Water Usage Associated with Different Levels

This is one of the most populated semi-arid regions with 22 million habitants, representing 11.8 %
of the Brazilian population (ASA 2014) and over half (58 %) of the country’s poor (MI 2014).
The average annual rainfall in the region is approximately 800 mm and surpasses rainfall in
the rest of the world, where average annual rainfall is half of the total rainfall in the Brazilian
semi-arid region. But, there is a highly irregular rainfall characteristic: 1 year it could receive
974 mm of rainfall, while in a drought year it may only receive 185 mm (IRPAA 2009).
Therefore, what really characterizes a drought is not the low volume of rainfall but its
distribution in time. The evaporation rate is high, due to continuous high temperatures, the
open surface evaporation being about 3000 mm a year (Garfì et al. 2011).
The lack of water in the region is aggravated by the presence of a crystalline layer in about
80 % of the region (IRPAA 2014). The crystalline rock does not have pores where water can be
retained. The layer above the rock is usually quite shallow, and often less than 1 m. Generally, the
groundwater available has a low yield, and, in most cases, it is improper for human consumption
because of the high salinity.
Due to this variability of precipitation, Rodriguez et al. (2015) identified seven homoge-
neous in the semi-arid region of Brazil (Fig. 1), thus, allowing to adapt water management to
the characteristics of each location of the semi-arid region.

2.3.2 Data Utilized in the Study

This study utilized 290 pluviometric stations, which are part of the hydrometeorological
network of the Hydrological Information System (Hidroweb) of the National Water Agency
of Brazil.

Fig. 1 Homogeneous region in

semi-arid region in Brazil
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R.D.G. Rodriguez et al.

Daily precipitation for each of 290 pluviometric stations was obtained based on synthetic
rainfall series generated by the program Cligen developed by USDA - United States Depart-
ment of Agriculture. Simulations were performed for 20 years. Simulations were performed
for 20 years. Table 1 shows the annual average precipitation simulated for a period of 10 years
in each homogeneous region.

2.3.3 Application of the Methodology in the Semi-Arid Region of Brazil

For each location, corresponding to the precipitation station located in a particular homoge-
neous region, water volume in the cistern was estimated for each day, so that the per capita
water use resulted in the cistern without water for 3 consecutive days per year of simulation.
Simulation was performed for 20 years, using the data generated for each of the precipitation
stations in the homogeneous region.
The amount of water entering the cistern on a given day was estimated, based on the values
of parameters related to rainfall discarded for the cistern on the day i and the runoff coefficient,
presented in section 2.1.1. The capacity of the cistern was 16,000 liters, which is adopted as
standard in the Water for All Program by Brazil.
A study about the area of rooftops, conducted by Social Organization DIACONIA in 22
rural communities in the semi-arid of Brazil, revealed data that can be considered representa-
tive for this region. In this study, it was observed that the average area of the roofs is 84 m2 and
that more than half of households have 75 m2 of roof. At the other extreme, a small number of
households (4 %) has many small roofs below 40 m2. Therefore, the horizontal roof area of a
residence was considered 70 m2.
The water demand was estimated for a family with five individuals, once, according to the
Ministry of National Integration, the cistern with a capacity to store 16,000 liters of water is
sufficient to sustain a family of five during a dry period of up to 6 months.
The temporal risk analysis was performed for each of 290 precipitation stations. A spatial
analysis of risk was performed for each of the seven homogeneous regions of the semi-arid
region of Brazil, based on data from precipitation stations located in their respective regions.

3 Results and Discussion

Table 2 shows, for each homogeneous region of the Brazilian semiarid, the average daily water
use per person for which the cisterns would be without water for 3 consecutive days,
considering the return periods of 5, 10 and 20 years, as well as the per capita water use

Table 1 Annual average precipi-

tation simulated for a period of Homogeneous regions Annual average precipitation - 10 years
10 years
Region 1 1009.0
Region 2 749.1
Region 3 781.3
Region 4 565.3
Region 5 681.6
Region 6 820.0
Region 7 868.7
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associated with lower and upper limits of the 95 % confidence interval for each value of
average per capita water use. The spatial representation of these values is presented in Fig. 2.
Based on data in Table 2, it is possible to ascertain that the average daily water use per
person associated with a guarantee of water demand for a return period of 10 years ranges from
15.8 L/person/day (Region 7) to 11.8 L/person/day (Region 4). These values characterize a
higher potential of water use for human use than that proposed for the semi-arid region of
Brazil by FUNDAJ (2014), which are 10 L/person/day, and the Social Organization
DIACONIA (CGU 2011), which is 8.9 L/person/day.
However, even in Region 7, where one can observe an increased water availability for
consumption in the Brazilian semi-arid region, the consumption values obtained are still below
than the 20 L/person/day recommended by WHO to ensure the basic needs of a person,
although this per capita water use is associated with a high risk of health problems by WHO.
Even considering 4 persons per household, the water availability is insufficient to meet the
WHO recommendation (20 L/person/day), although in the Region 1 (15.5 L/person/day) and
in the Region 7 (15.8 L/person/day), the per capita water use represents 77 and 79 % of WHO
recommendation, respectively. Thus, adjustments to the cistern project are necessary in order
to allow access to water considering the minimum recommended by WHO.
As there is a variability in per capita water use within each hydrologically homogeneous
region, it is important to ascertain the level of assurance associated with a higher level of
guarantee of water to meet demand. In Region 7, the water availability associated with a mean
condition, 15.8 L/person/day, when combined with a guarantee level of 95 % of probability for
meeting the demands, reduces to 15.1 L/person/day.
Although region 7 presents the greatest assurance of per capita water use, it has the second
highest yearly total precipitation among the seven homogeneous regions identified (Fig. 3). The
annual precipitate in Region 7 (about 869 mm) is approximately 14 % lower than the precipitation in
region 1 (about 1009 mm), however, the average per capita water use associated with a return period
of 10 years in region 7 is approximately 2 % higher than in region 1 (15.5 L/head/day). This can be
explained by the seasonal variability of precipitation throughout the year (Fig. 3). The highest
monthly precipitation variability is observed in Region 1, where from January to May 86 % of the

Table 2 Values of average daily water use per person that result in 3 days without water in cistern in 5, 10 and
20 years in each homogeneous region in semiarid of Brazil, and the upper and the lower limit of the respectives
daily water use

Region Average daily water use per person (L/person/day) that result

In 3 days without water in In 3 days without water in In 3 days without water in

cistern in 5 years cistern in 10 years cistern in 20 years

Average Lower upper Average Lower Upper Average Lower Upper

limit limit limit limit limit limit

Region 1 16.1 15.2 17.0 15.5 14.7 16.3 14.8 14.0 15.5
Region 2 14.3 13.9 14.8 13.6 13.2 14.1 13.2 12.8 13.5
Region 3 14.8 14.3 15.3 14.0 13.5 14.4 13.3 12.9 13.7
Region 4 13.2 11.9 14.4 11.8 10.4 13.2 11.0 9.7 12.4
Region 5 15.5 14.4 16.5 14.2 13.1 15.4 13.1 12.2 14.1
Region 6 15.9 15.2 16.5 14.9 14.2 15.7 13.8 12.9 14.6
Region 7 17.1 16.2 17.9 15.8 15.1 16.5 14.9 14.1 15.6
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R.D.G. Rodriguez et al.

Fig. 2 Average daily water use per person that results in 3 days without water in cistern in 5, 10 and 20 years in
each homogeneous region in semiarid of Brazil; and the upper and the lower limit of the respective daily water use

total annual precipitation volume rains, and in the most critical months from August to November, it
precipitates between 7.7 and 4.4 mm/month. In Region 7, the driest months (June to August),
precipitation is between 10.9 and 13.3 mm/month. But, these total monthly precipitation values
correspond, in mean, to a volume that precipitates in 6 days of the month. Thus, possibly, there is no
contribution to water recharge of tank in these 3 months, since each 2 mm daily precipitation is
discarded to avoid contamination of the water in the cistern.
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Estimated Per Capita Water Usage Associated with Different Levels

Therefore, even with the occurrence of an average annual precipitation of about 1009 mm in
Region 1 (Table 1), it is not sufficient to guarantee water availability to the local population
compatible with the WHO recommendation (20 L/person/day) to ensure the basic needs of a person.
In Region 4, where the most critical situation occurs, the average per capita water use associated
with a return period of 10 years (11.8 L/person/day) corresponds to 59 % of basic water use per
person recommended by WHO. Even if the family is composed for 3 people, it would be unable to
secure per capita water use of the order of 20 L/person/day. This lower guarantee to meet per capita
water use is due to the lower rainfall that occurs in Region 4 compared to other homogeneous
regions. The precipitation in this region (average annual precipitation of about 565 mm) corresponds
to approximately 56 and 65 % of the annual precipitation in regions 1 and 7, respectively, while the
average per capita water use (associated with a return period of 10 years) is about 76 and 75 % of per
capita water use in these regions. Such differences may be explained by the fact that although
Region 4 presents the smallest annual precipitation, the variation of precipitation throughout the year
is not so high as evidenced in other homogeneous regions, except region 5 (Fig. 3). In Region 4, in
the driest months (August to October), precipitation ranges from 10.3 to 18.0 mm/month, while in
the wettest months (December-January), it ranges from 59.8 to 68.2 mm/month.
In Region 5, the variability of precipitation throughout the year is lower than in Region 4. In
drier months (July to September), the average monthly precipitation varies from 26.0 to
20.7 mm/month, while in the wettest months (December, January and March), it ranges
between 97.8 and 90.5 mm/month. This allows for a continuous refilling of cistern during
the year, resulting in an average per capita water use higher than in Region 2 and Region 3,
where the total precipitation in 10 years is, respectively, 10 and 15 % higher than the total
precipitation in Region 5. With this, the average per capita water use associated with a return
period of 10 years in region 5 is 14.3 L/person/day, while in regions 2 and 3, this consumption
is 13.6 and 14.0 L/person/day, respectively.
Families who reside in Region 6 have access to the average water use of 14.9 L/person/day
associated with a return period of 10 years, which corresponds to the third highest per capita
water use in the Brazilian semi-arid region. This is a consequence of an annual precipitation
that is also the third highest among the precipitation values in the other seven homogenous
regions of the semi-arid region.
For the return periods of 5 and 20 years, the analysis of behavior of the average daily water
use per person in each homogeneous region is similar to that characterized for the return period
of 10 years, however, as expected, with a reduction in the values of per capita water use with
increasing return period.
Smaller variations of the average daily water use per person occurred in Region 1 and in
Region 2, with a decrease between the per capita water use simulated for 5 years and the per
capita water use simulated for 20 years, of 8.8 % (corresponding to 1.3 L/person/day) and
8.4 % (corresponding to 1.2 L/person/day), respectively. In Region 4 and Region 5, the
decrease in consumption was more pronounced than in the other homogeneous regions,
approximately 17.7 % (corresponding to 2.1 L/person/day) and 16.0 % (corresponding to
2.3 L/person/day), respectively.

4 Conclusions

The methodology allowed estimating per capita water use associated with temporal and spatial
risk of water shortage in cistern in arid and semiarid regions. For the semi-arid region of Brazil
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R.D.G. Rodriguez et al.

Fig. 3 Mean monthly precipitation simulated for a period of 10 years in each homogeneous region of semi-arid
of Brazil (The monthly variation of precipitation was similar when simulated for 5 and 20 years)

it was possible to identify the areas where the local population has a greater restriction on the
access to water (central semiarid region) and regions where there is a greater water availability
(north and south of the semi-arid region). Even in regions where the local population can have
greater water use, this does not guarantee meeting the basic needs of a person, as recommend-
ed by WHO. Therefore, there is a need to adapt the characteristics of the project of cisterns, for
example, the roof area (catchment area) and sizing of the cistern, so the local population has
access to the minimum required water for use due to the great water scarcity in the region. This
 Author's personal copy
Estimated Per Capita Water Usage Associated with Different Levels

variation of water availability for human use in the Brazilian semi-arid region reflects the
temporal variability and the spatial variability of rainfall. Thus, management measures de-
signed to meet the water deficit of the semi-arid population must be appropriate for the reality
of each location. This will allow, in addition to the application of more efficient technologies
for the local characteristics, greater economy in the implementation of the proposed manage-
ment measures.

Acknowledgments The authors acknowledge the support by the CAPES Foundation, Ministry of Education of
Brazil, under Grant number BEX 9508/13-9.

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