International Journal of Fatigue 37 (2012) 146–152

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International Journal of Fatigue

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijfatigue

Subsurface rolling contact fatigue damage

of railway wheels – A probabilistic analysis
Johan Sandström
Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden
Epsilon AB Utvecklingscentrum Väst, SE-417 56, Gothenburg, Sweden

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: A numerical model for predicting the probability of subsurface initiated rolling contact fatigue failure in
Received 18 February 2011 railway wheels subjected to operational loading is presented. The loading is evaluated through simula-
Received in revised form 26 October 2011 tions of dynamic train–track interaction incorporating the influence of, e.g., corrugation. Contact stresses
Accepted 6 November 2011
are found from Hertzian theory and the resulting stress field from theory of elasticity. Fatigue damage is
Available online 15 November 2011
evaluated by use of a Wöhler curve where the fatigue strength is decreased due to the influence of mate-
rial defects, which are presumed to be of random size and occurrence in the stressed volume of the wheel
Keywords:
rim. Damage accumulation is performed using the Palmgren–Miner rule, extending the model to cases of
Probability
Rolling contact fatigue
variable loading.
Railway wheels The results show how a combination of rail corrugation and high train speeds have a significant impact
Defects on the probability of fatigue failure. A sensitivity analysis reveals a strong influence of the fatigue
Variable amplitude strength and the material defect distribution on the probability of fatigue failure.
Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction 2. Theory

Subsurface initiated rolling contact fatigue (RCF) failure of
railway wheels is a rare and, apparently, random phenomenon.
This failure mode is attributed to the occurrence of material defects
and high vertical load magnitudes; nominal fatigue strength
and load magnitudes result in operational conditions for which
failures should not occur, see [1]. Deterministic models to predict
subsurface initiated RCF exists, such as [2,3]. These rely on a fixed
material defect size and cannot directly account for variable load
spectra. In contrast, a probabilistic analysis can account for the sta-
tistical scatter in load magnitudes and material defect sizes in a
coherent manner. Previous studies to this end are presented by
e.g., [4–6].
The method outlined in this paper is an extension of the
method developed in [7] where only the probability of fatigue
initiation in railway wheels was evaluated. The method is based
on the theoretical framework established in [8,9] where probabil-
ity of fatigue initiation is deduced from randomly occurring
defects.
In the analysis, the occurrence and size of material defects, as
well as the load magnitude, are treated as statistical variables.
The result of the analysis is the probability of subsurface initiated
RCF failure of a wheel under given operational conditions.
E-mail addresses: johan.sandstrom@chalmers.se, johan.sandstrom@epsilon.nu
2.1. Probability of fatigue failure in the presence of material defects
For high cycle fatigue (which is the focus of the current study), a
fatigue life analysis commonly sets out from a relation between the
stress amplitude S and the corresponding fatigue life N, commonly
expressed as an SN-curve (Wöhler curve). This relation is character-
istic for the material in use and is established from laboratory tests
on small specimens where no larger material defects exist. In oper-
ations with many or large components, larger material defects are
more likely to appear. In their presence the fatigue strength of the
component decreases. Murakami [10,11] proposes that a relevant
size measurement of a material defect for quantifying its effect on
the fatigue strength is the square root of the projected area,1
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
area. For a particular material with a defect present, the fatigue life
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
N can be expressed as a function of area and S,
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi 
fatigue life ¼ N area; S ð1Þ
Strictly interpreted, Eq. (1) allows the fatigue life to be predicted
only under load conditions resulting in constant stress amplitudes.
However, for variable loading, fatigue damage accumulation can be
adopted. A common approach is the Palmgren–Miner rule [12]
1
In uniaxial loading this projection is taken in the direction of applied stress. In the
current study the stress is multiaxial with rotating principal axes, which causes a
complication. This is dealt with in the results section by restricting defects to
spherical shape.

0142-1123/$ - see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ijfatigue.2011.11.002
 J. Sandström / International Journal of Fatigue 37 (2012) 146–152 147

Nomenclature
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
areaffi0
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi defect size threshold P fatigue failure probability
area
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi squareroot of projected defect area p0 maximum Hertzian contact pressure
aream mean defect size PD probability of fatigue failure induced by a random de-
A ratio between contact semi axes fect
a longitudinal Hertzian contact semi axis R wheel radius
b lateral Hertzian contact semi axis S stress amplitude
c Wöhler-curve parameter Se fatigue limit
D total accumulated damage V stress affected volume
d Wöhler-curve parameter ffiffiffiffiffiffiffi cumulative distribution function for pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
cdf parea
ffi
p ffiffiffiffiffiffiffi pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi area
Dm mean damage magnitude from one load cycle with pres- pdf area probability density function for area
ent defect x, y, z coordinates
Ds standard deviation damage magnitude from one load c material parameter
cycle with present defect k0 intensity of defects larger than the threshold size
N fatigue life rDV Dang Van equivalent stress
n total number of load cycles
Ne fatigue life at Se

where the partial damage for one load cycle is the inverse of the where H is the Heaviside function.
fatigue life corresponding to the load cycle’s stress amplitude and The expressions above give the probability of failure for an
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
the where accumulated damage is taken as the linear sum of dam- existing defect characterized by the defect size measure area.
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
age for the stress history. Fatigue failure is assumed to take place As defects have random sizes, area can also be considered to be
when the accumulated fatigue damage reaches a value of unity, 1. an SV. Since the larger defects cause fatigue initiation (and lead
To extend this approach to account for material defects, the to subsequent failure), an extreme value distribution describing
accumulated total damage D near a defect is introduced as the random defect sizes above some size threshold is natural to use
sum of damage due to n different load cycles Sk with varying stress [13].
amplitudes, i.e. The probability of fatigue failure at a material point containing
X
n an existing defect with random size is then given as
1 Z
D¼ pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi  ð2Þ 1
N area; Sk PD ¼ Pðn; Dm ðsÞ; Ds ðsÞÞ pdf pffiffiffiffiffiffi
ffi
k¼1 area ðsÞds ð5Þ
0
With a random load spectrum (including random variations in pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
ffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ðsÞ is the probability density function for area for
where pdf parea
wheel–rail contact patch size), the stress amplitudes Sk can be trea-
ted as independent stochastic variables (SV). Since a material point defects larger than a chosen threshold. By employing Eq. (3), Eq.
on the wheel tread comes into contact with the rail roughly every (5) can be expressed as
third meter, independence should be a reasonable assumption. Z 1   
1  nDm ðsÞ
Even if the wheel circumference should match some periodicity PD ¼ 1  U pffiffiffi pdf pffiffiffiffiffiffi
ffi
area ðsÞds ð6Þ
0 nDs ðsÞ
in the track, any dependence in Sk should decay for larger n. For
a railway wheel, the number n of cycles (revolutions) during its or with use of the approximation in Eq. (4),
operational life is very large (n  108). Therefore the sum in Eq. Z 1  
PD  pdf pffiffiffiffiffiffi
ffi pffiffiffiffiffiffiffi 1
(2) can be estimated from the central limit theorem without area ðsÞds ¼ 1  cdf area D m ð1=nÞ ð7Þ
D1
m ð1=nÞ
knowing the exact distribution of the load levels. The central limit
theorem only requires that the mean (expectation value) and the ffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ðsÞ is the cumulative distribution function for the de-
where cdf parea
standard deviation of the SV are known to evaluate the sum of pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
fect size and D1 the inverse of the function Dm area , i.e. the
the repeated SV. The probability that the sum will exceed 1 (fatigue pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi m
quantity area is solved for in the equation
failure) is then pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
nDm area ¼ 1 ð8Þ
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi!
 pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi 1  nDm area
P n; Dm area ; Ds area ¼ 1  U pffiffiffi pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ð3Þ If k0 is the intensity of defects larger than the chosen threshold
nDs area size appearing in the material, then the intensity of fatigue failure
at a material point after n load cycles is k0PD. The total probability
where U is the standard normal cumulative probability distribu-
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
ffi of fatigue failure in the stressed material volume V is obtained by
tion. Further, Dm area and Ds area are the mean and standard
integrating in the Poisson distribution over the volume of the stud-
deviation, respectively, of the damage resulting from one load cycle
accounting for the presence of an existing defect. This dependence ied component
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi  Z 
on area does not need to be known explicitly as will be shown
later. PV ¼ 1  exp  k0 PD ðx; y; zÞdV ð9Þ
V
Eq. (3) can be further approximated since n, in the case of sub-
surface initiated RCF, is even larger than needed for the central lim- This assumption of Poisson distributed defects models them as
it theorem. The standard deviation of the total damage appearing independently with no clustering effects accounted for.
(denominator in Eq. (3) when neglecting covariance for decaying In Eq. (9), spatial dependence of PD has been indicated, since in
dependence of Sk) becomes very small, which makes the following the current study the distribution of the stress level S (and subse-
approximation of the failure probability possible: quently also Dm and Ds) will vary over the studied volume V. The de-
 pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi  pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi  fect distribution used here is constant (equal probability of defects
P n; Dm area  H nDm area  1 ð4Þ everywhere) but could also be made spatially varying. Expanding
148 J. Sandström / International Journal of Fatigue 37 (2012) 146–152
the expression given in Eq. (9) and adopting it for the study of sub-
surface initiated RCF in a rolling wheel see [7], yields
Z !
PV ¼ 1  exp k0 2pR PD ðy; zÞ dydz ð10Þ
Ayz
where R is the wheel radius and the surface Ayz is the yz-planes un-
der the wheel contact, cf. Fig. 1. For the railway wheel, V is basically
the wheel rim. In Section 3 the size of Ayz needed for numerical eval-
uations of Eq. (10) is given.
2.2. Influence of material defects on fatigue strength
Fig. 2 shows the relation between fatigue strength, fatigue life
and defect size adopted in the current study. A bi-linear relation-
ship in a loglog-diagram is presumed with the transition point ta-
ken at a fatigue life of about 106 cycles. Other SN-relations can be
adopted provided they are monotonic. For example, the SN-curve
could be made curved, instead of bi-linear [14].
2.2.1. Fatigue strength as a function of stress magnitude
For intermediate to long lives (N = 103  106), it is assumed that
fatigue strength S and fatigue life N are related via a typical SN-
curve (Wöhler-curve)
S ¼ cN d ð11Þ
with material constants c and d that can be derived from fatigue
testing.
Railway wheels work at nominal stress levels well below the or-
dinary fatigue limit Se (corresponding to Ne  106). If a finite life is
Fig. 1. Railway wheel rim with contact load patch with size given by the semi-axes,
a and b, of the Hertzian contact patch. The wheel rim contains a subsurface defect
with projected area as indicated. Coordinate system (x, y, z) is displayed.
Fig. 2. Presumed relation between fatigue strengths, fatigue lives and defect size
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
area.
to be assumed also below this limit, an extension of the SN rela-
tionship can be achieved with an additional material parameter
c, (cf. Fig. 2 and [15,16]). This yields a fatigue life relationship
S ¼ c0 Ncd 8 N > 106
where c0 is adjusted to make the SN-curve continuous.
An infinite life at stress magnitudes corresponding to N > Ne is
obtained by setting c = 0, and a fatigue damage according to Eq.
(11) also at these stress magnitudes is obtained by setting c = 1.
2.2.2. Influence of material defects on fatigue strength
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
As mentioned above, the projected defect area area is used to
characterize the size of the defect and relate this size to the perti-
nent reduction in fatigue strength. In [17], a simplified Murakami
condition [18] is proposed, assuming that a reduced fatigue limit
Sred is defined as
 pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi 1=6
Sred area
¼ pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ð12Þ
Se area0
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
where area0 is a small defect size corresponding to the fatigue
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
limit Se. Defects smaller than area0 are presumed not to affect
the fatigue strength of the material, as illustrated in a Kitagawa–
Takahashi diagram [19]. In the current study, the reduction of the
SN-curve is accomplished by a reduction of the fatigue strength
according to Eq. (12) at a fatigue life corresponding to the fatigue
limit, cf. Fig. 2. The fatigue strength at short fatigue lives
(N = 10  103) is assumed not to be affected by material defects
and the fatigue strength in this region is consequently not reduced.
2.3. Stress measure
In the current study of rolling contact fatigue of a railway wheel,
the state of stress is multiaxial. Thus, a suitable equivalent stress
measure is needed. In this study, the Dang Van stress [20] has been
adopted. Although the Dang Van criterion is based on a hypothe-
sized slip in critically oriented crystal grains, it has been described
in the literature [21] how the criterion can be employed for fatigue
cracks initiating near defects. In [22] it was shown how, at each po-
sition (y, z), the maximum Dang Van equivalent stress during a roll-
over can be formulated as
rDV ¼ p0 f ðy=b; z=b; AÞ ð13Þ
where A = a/b. This function is restricted to certain ranges of the
material parameters m (Poisson’s ratio) and cDV the latter being a
parameter governing the influence of the hydrostatic stress in the
Dang Van criterion.
3. Implementation
The computational scheme employed to analyze the probability
of subsurface initiated RCF is given as follows:
1. Prior to computing the probability of RCF failure, two sets of
data are prepared.
 Representative data of peak contact pressures (p0) and
contact patch sizes (given as the Hertzian contact ellipse
semi-axes a and b) for the studied operational scenario are
evaluated. This is accomplished by numerical simulations
of dynamic wheel–rail interaction.
 Equivalent Dang Van stress magnitudes for material points
in the yz-plane are computed from Eq. (13) for different val-
ues characterizing the contact (a, b, A). Poisson’s ratio m is
assumed constant. These data are stored and subsequently
interpolated from.
 J. Sandström / International Journal of Fatigue 37 (2012) 146–152 149

2. A computational domain with a discretization of the yz-plane
into a rectangular grid is created. To improve accuracy for the
subsequent numerical integration, the grid points are posi-
tioned so as to facilitate Gaussian integration (roots to the
Legendre polynomials). A grid with y = [0,7] mm discretized
into 12 points and z = [0, 10] mm into 14 points was found to
be sufficient for an accurate numerical integration in the cur-
rent study.
3. For each grid point, the Dang Van equivalent stress history rep-
resenting a large number of wheel revolutions is determined by
evaluating the function f(y/b, z/b, A) in Eq. (13) by interpolation
from pre-evaluated rDV magnitudes (corresponding to a given
combination of a, b, A) at each time increment.
4. For each grid point:
(a) Damage history and estimated mean damage per cycle for a
given defect size are determined from Eq. (2). With this, the
minimum defect size for which the damage reaches 1 (fail-
ure) during n cycles is determined from a numerical solu-
tion of Eq. (8).
(b) Probability of fatigue failure at the grid point due to an
existing defect with a chosen size probability distribution
is then established from Eq. (7).
5. Eq. (10) is evaluated through numerical (Gaussian) integration
over the yz-plane, using pre-established grid points.
On a modern laptop (year 2010) this procedure (excluding the
preparations in step 1) takes roughly 4.8 s (3551 evaluations of
the contact load are used). Most time is spent on the interpolation
in step 3.
4. Results
The analysis aims at establishing the probability that the cumu-
lative damage reaches 1 (failure) after n wheel revolutions (which
in turn can be translated to an operational distance). A damage
magnitude of 1 is here assumed to implicate a crack of consider-
able size (or final fracture).
4.1. Employed model parameters
The contact load history is evaluated from numerical analysis of
train–track interaction using the code DIFF [23], which is capable
of accounting for high-frequency wheel–rail interaction. The vehi-
cle considered is the Swedish high-speed train X2000 operating on
standard UIC60 rail. Details on the studied configuration are given
in [24]. The wheel radius R = 443 mm and the rail head radius
300 mm are used. Short-pitch rail corrugation is included and
quantified by magnifications (dB) of the roughness spectrum [25]
measured at Vretstorp in Sweden [26]. The corrugation measured
in field was rather severe; therefore a corrugation magnitude of
threshold, of an underlying distribution with an exponentially
decreasing tail. The use of the GPD for the distribution of defect sizes
in clean steals was put forward in [29]. In the current study the
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
threshold is set to correspond to area0 . Note that setting the thresh-
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
olds for the GPD-parameter equal to area0 is, not required in the
present model. The cumulative distribution function then becomes
 pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi 
s  area0 pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
cdf pffiffiffiffiffiffi
ffi
area ðsÞ ¼ 1  exp  pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi for s > area0
aream  area0
ð14Þ
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
where the mean size of defects greater than area0 is aream and is
set to correspond to a diameter of 0.50 mm. For torsional testing
[21] suggests a defect size threshold 0.15 mm (defect diameter) as
a summary of different reported values, whereas [27] report defects
with diameters of 0.01–0.02 mm to initiate torsional fatigue at
stress magnitudes close to the fatigue limit. For the case of RCF,
large compressive stresses are present in addition to the shear
stresses. This should induce residual tensile stresses near the defect
and since the defect size threshold for axial loading is much smaller,
typically below 0.02 mm (defect diameter), the present study em-
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
ploys a base value of area0 corresponding to a defect diameter
of 0.10 mm. The intensity k0 is set to 1.19  108 mm3. This will
correspond to a situation where 1 of 100 wheel rims with a volume
8  106 mm3 is found to have defects with diameter greater than
1 mm if the defect size is distributed as above.
To ensure that stress levels are not high enough to implicate
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
failure also for defects below the threshold area0 , the defect size
limit where failure becomes probable, cf. Eq. (8), is monitored in
each grid point (step 4a in Section 3). For the worst load case,
the minimum observed defect diameter causing probable failure
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
was 0.59 mm which is comfortably larger than area0 .
The parameter values listed above in combination with a speed
of 200 km/h, a corrugation magnitude of 6 dB and a rolled dis-
tance of 278,000 km (corresponding to 108 wheel revolutions)
are to be considered as a reference case and are used below if noth-
ing else is stated. Note that the given speed and corrugation mag-
nitudes are only employed to generate the load spectrum adopted
in the analysis.
4.2. Predicted failure probabilities
In Fig. 3 probabilities of fatigue failure are given as functions of
rolled distance for operations at three different speeds on rails with
corrugation magnitudes of 6 dB and 0 dB.
0.012
300 km/h
250 km/h
0.010
200 km/h
failure probability [%]

6 dB (with respect to the measured magnitude) is considered as 0.008

representative for a well maintained mainline railway.
Wheel material data are taken from [27]. The ultimate strength
0.006 0 dB
in shear Su is 645 MPa which is presumed to correspond to the fa-
tigue strength for Nu = 10 cycles, see Fig. 2. The fatigue limit in
shear is 308 MPa (presumed to correspond to Ne = 2  106 cycles). 0.004
The slope of the SN-curve above this fatigue life is given by the
slope parameter c = 1/3. Additional material parameters used are
cDV = 0.30 and Poisson’s ratio m = 0.30. 0.002
To circumvent the issue of projected defect area, defects are as- −6 dB
sumed to be spherical and the defect size is characterized by the
0
diameter of the defect. The distribution of the defect size is taken 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
as a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), see [28], with the shape × 1000 km
parameter set to 0 (resulting in an exponential distribution). This
choice is suitable to model the extreme values, above a certain Fig. 3. Fatigue failure probability for a rolling wheel plotted against rolled distance.
150 J. Sandström / International Journal of Fatigue 37 (2012) 146–152

Ne

Nu
0.020
Failure probability [%]

Se
0.015
Su
−3
10
0.010 √ aream

0.005 λ
0

0 √ area0
3
300 0
250 −3 γ
200 −6 −4
150 10
100 −9 Corrugation [dB]
Speed [km/h]

Failure probability
Fig. 4. Fatigue failure probability for various operational conditions after a rolled
distance of 278,000 km.

To further elucidate the influence of corrugation magnitude and

−5
train speed, results for a multitude of combinations are presented 10
in Fig. 4. It is seen that the combination of high operational speeds
and high corrugation magnitudes similar to those measured at
Vretstorp significantly increases the probability of subsurface initi-
ated RCF failures.
The effect of aggregated fatigue when corrugation and speed in-
creases are documented in the literature [30,31,1]. It can be ex- −6
plained by the higher variation in the wheel–rail contact force 10
distribution under these conditions. Thus, even though the mean
contact force is unaffected by speed and corrugation, high contact
forces become more common. This increases the fatigue damage
due to the non-linear relation between stress and fatigue damage.

−7
4.3. Sensitivity 10
0.5 1 1.5 2
Scale factor
4.3.1. Material parameters
The magnitudes of the material parameters employed in the Fig. 5. Parametric sensitivity of predicted fatigue failure probabilities in the
simulations have been taken based on experience and results in reference case when scaling parameters independently.
the literature. They are thus considered to be reasonable. To inves-
tigate the influence of altered parameter magnitudes, a sensitivity
−3
analysis incorporating the most important of these (listed in Fig. 5) 10
is performed. From the reference case the parameters have, inde-
pendently, been scaled by a factor varying between 0.5 and 2.
The result is visualized in Fig. 5. The parameter where a deviation
Failure probability

has the largest impact is the unreduced fatigue limit. The uncer-
tainty in this parameter is likely limited as it relates to the fatigue
−4
strength in the absence of defects. Thereafter the mean and thresh- 10
old values of the defect size have the most influence. From Eq. (9) it
can be seen that the model is linear in the defect intensity k0 for
small values of k0. Fig. 5 confirms that the response is indeed (close
to) linear for values of k0 employed in the current study. It should,
however, be noted that the implied possible simplification of line-
arizing (9) would only give an insignificant decrease in computa- 10
−5

tional cost. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6

From the sensitivity analysis, it is noticed how an increased ulti-
mate strength Su increases failure probability. This contra-intuitive
effect can be explained by the fact that the stress levels in a railway
wheel for most load cycles lie in very the high cycle regime
(N > Ne). When observing Fig. 2 it is realized that although the
SN-curve is raised for N < Ne when increasing Su, the slope change
lowers the SN-curve for N > Ne. In reality this effect is not very
important as the fatigue limit Se is also increased when increasing
Su.
The hydrostatic Dang Van parameter cDV is also of interest. The
value of cDV = 0.3 comes from the fact that the ratio between fati-
gue limit in alternating and pulsating loading is around 0.85 for
c
Fig. 6. Fatigue failure probabilities when varying the hydrostatic Dang Van
parameter cDV.
many steels [32]. The influence of cDV is presented in Fig. 6. It is no-
ticed that an increased cDV does not yield any significant effect.
This is a consequence of the hydrostatic pressure being purely
compressive under Hertzian contacts, so the maximum Dang Van
amplitudes are obtained at the the start and end of the load history
where maximum hydrostatic pressure occurs [2]. For a decreasing
cDV the fatigue probability increases substantially. Of particular
 J. Sandström / International Journal of Fatigue 37 (2012) 146–152
Table 1
Variations in predicted failure probabilities between subsequent simulations of train–
track interaction. The last row contains the estimated standard deviation divided by
the pertinent estimated mean.
Mean of p0 Mean of peak 10% Failure probability
(MPa) magnitudes of p0 (MPa)
Simulation 1 1054.5 1184.3 0.156  104
Simulation 2 1054.5 1186.8 0.163  104
Simulation 3 1053.1 1189.2 0.167  104
Simulation 4 1054.0 1187.3 0.166  104
Simulation 5 1054.5 1178.1 0.139  104
Simulation 6 1054.6 1180.9 0.148  104
Std:dev: 0.000545 0.00357 0.0755
mean
interest is cDV = 0 as this gives the situation where the beneficial
effect of negative hydrostatic pressure is not present, cf. [33].
4.3.2. Load parameters
In the train–track simulations the rail corrugation pattern is
generated with amplitudes according to the adopted roughness
spectrum. Random phases in wavelength space are presumed. This
leads to a random variation of the simulated load conditions,
which results in a random variation of the predicted probability
of fatigue failure. In Table 1 results from six train–track simula-
tions are presented. In total 3551 evaluations of the contact load
are used. As seen, the variation between the different simulations
is low implying that enough load cycles have been considered in
establishing the load spectrum. It can be noted that the variation
in failure probability is much larger than the corresponding varia-
tions in estimated mean p0 magnitudes and that the failure proba-
bility is better correlated to the mean of the peak 10% magnitudes
of p0. This is a consequence of the non-linear relation between load
and damage as indicated in the SN-curve in Fig. 2.
5. Concluding remarks
A numerical model to evaluate the probability of subsurface ini-
tiated rolling contact fatigue failure in the rim of a railway wheel
under operational conditions including rail corrugation has been
derived. The model is based on the following:
1. Operational loads derived from simulations of dynamic train–
track interaction, incorporating high-frequency contributions.
2. Equivalent-stress field evaluated with Hertzian contact theory
and the Dang Van multiaxial fatigue criterion.
3. Reduction of the fatigue strength due to material defects is car-
ried out using a version of the Murakami criterion [17]. Fatigue
strength is presumed to be expressed by a Wöhler curve, where
an extension to finite fatigue life at stress magnitudes below the
nominal fatigue limit is possible. Palmgren–Miner linear dam-
age accumulation is employed to account for variable ampli-
tude loading
4. Defect size is treated as a stochastic variable following a Gener-
alized Pareto Distribution and defects appear as a Poisson
process.
The resulting model is computationally cheap with an analysis
of the probability of fatigue failure corresponding to given opera-
tional scenario being performed in a few seconds.
Numerical results have been presented for different operational
scenarios. In the current study, track and vehicle configurations
have been kept constant, whereas the train speed and corrugation
magnitude (derived by an amplification of a measured corrugation
spectrum) have been varied. The analysis quantifies the detrimen-
tal effect of a combination of high speeds and rail corrugation.
151
A sensitivity analysis has been carried out on the parameters
included in the model. It is shown that in particular the reduced
fatigue strength in terms of nominal fatigue limit and defect distri-
bution will have a pronounced effect.
Acknowledgements
The work is part of the activities within the competence center
CHARMEC (www.chalmers.se/charmec) at Chalmers University of
Technology. Prof. Anders Ekberg and Prof. Jacques de Maré are
thanked for guidance and fruitful discussions.
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