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Contents
1. Introduction....................................................................................................................................... 4
1.1. Introductory .............................................................................................................................. 4
1.2. Statement of the problem ......................................................................................................... 5
1.3. Purpose (aim and goal) ............................................................................................................. 5
1.4. Research objectives ................................................................................................................... 5
1.5. Research questions .................................................................................................................... 5
1.6. Research hypothesis .................................................................................................................. 5
1.7. Significance of the study ........................................................................................................... 6
1.8. Scope and limitation.................................................................................................................. 6
1.9. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 6
2. Literature review .............................................................................................................................. 7
3. Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 9
3.1. Conceptual framework ............................................................................................................. 9
3.2. Model specification ................................................................................................................... 9
3.3. Variables measurements ......................................................................................................... 11
3.4. Research approach .................................................................................................................. 11
3.5. Research design technique...................................................................................................... 11
3.6. Population and sampling methodology .................................................................................. 11
3.7. Sources of secondary data ...................................................................................................... 12
3.8. Procedure of gathering and collection ................................................................................... 12
3.9. Analysis plan............................................................................................................................ 12
4. Data analysis.................................................................................................................................... 13
4.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 13
4.2. Descriptive statistics and normality tests .............................................................................. 13
4.3. Correlation analysis ................................................................................................................ 14
4.4. ANOVA test ............................................................................................................................. 15
.4.5 Regression results .................................................................................................................... 15
4.6. Discussion of results ................................................................................................................ 16
5. Conclusion and recommendations ................................................................................................. 17
6. References ........................................................................................................................................ 18
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List of Tables
Table 1. Sources of Secondary data................................................................................................. 12
Table 2. Descriptive statics results .................................................................................................. 13
Table 3. Correlation results ............................................................................................................ 14
Table 4. ANOVA test ...................................................................................................................... 15
Table 5. Regression table ................................................................................................................ 15
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Abstract
The aim of the study to investigate the impact of money supply on economic growth in GCC in
the period 2011-2020. In the analysis, the dependent variable is the gross domestic product growth.
The independents or the explanatory variables are broad money supply M2, inflation rate, total
investment, and government net lending. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression method used to
analyze data. 5% level of significance level was taken in the research. Hypotheses are taken to
reject or failed to reject the null hypotheses. The study results shows that there is positive
significant impact by money supply and economic growth. The study also found that there is
significant positive impact of inflation rate on economic growth. The study found that total
investments and government net lending has no impact on economic growth. The study
recommends Gulf Cooperation (GCC) Countries control the economic growth by using interest
rates to affect inflation and increase money supply.
Keywords:
Broad money supply M2 growth (BMGR), gross domestic product growth (GDPGR), inflation
rate (INF), total investments (INV), government net lending (GNL).
1. Introduction
1.1. Introductory
GCC has the largest economic group portion of economy in Middle East. The GCC custom union
established in 2003. GCC is an important region in political and economic level. Money supply
defined as a money in circulation, demand deposits, saving deposits, and time deposits. Strong
monetary has started at 1967. The government affect money supply by fiscal operations. The issue
of currency by the government is to increase the money supply. However, loans and bills lead the
financial sector to deficit. Therefore, the monetary policy link between fiscal operations, money
supply and inflation.
The central bank of the country is the monetary authority which conduct a monetary policy by the
use of interest rate, supply of money, and direction of credit etc, to regulate and control the
economic activities. It is vital to regulate the economic activities to enhance price stability, the
growth of economy, and the growth of investments for employment. Monetary policy expansion
stabilizes the security. Although, the economists do not agree on the impact of money supply on
economic growth. In recent years, economists pay attention to the relationship between money
supply and economic growth in monetary economics field.
Over the years, oil prices have controlled the stability of monetary policy in Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC). Also, the chain between the GCC currencies and the US dollar (except the Kuwaiti
Dinars), but the monetary policy provides the liquidity conditions. The peg of US dollar is
independent from monetary policy. However, macroeconomic management by controlling
variables relies on fiscal policy and monetary policy to influence price stability and growth.
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Monetary policy uses monetary aggregates as a guide to stable relationship with economy and this
controlled by the central bank through federal fund rate. The increase in federal fund rate reduces
the attractiveness of holding money comparing to the new yield. Therefore, money demanded
reduced, and the growth slowed.
Economists has different views on the impact of money supply on economic growth. Some
economists conclude that the variation in the quantity of money supply is factor that determine the
economic growth. While others disagree and said that money supply is rarely influence by much
variation in economic activities and that no affect the national income.
This paper aims to investigate the impact of money supply on economic growth. The scope of the
study is between 2011 and 2020.
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𝐻3𝑎 : There is no significant impact of total investments on economic growth
𝐻3𝑏 : There is a significant impact of total investments on economic growth
1.9. Conclusion
The introductory chapter considers introduction of the study, statement of the problem, aim,
objectives, hypotheses, significance scope and limitations of the study. The introduction chapter
gives an idea of the research that helps others to what are expecting to get of information regarding
money supply and economic growth.
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2. Literature review
As many literatures explain the role of money supply on economic growth in developed and
developing countries. The failure of money supply and lower levels of money aggregates stop as
a wall in front of many countries as African countries. However, many scholars blame the
monetary policies to transform into economic growth. The reason behind this is poor
implementation and developing by the country and its agencies.
Financial intermediations contribute in a sustainable growth by providing money supply. The
importance of innovation, new products, technology, and increasing bank branches plays a role in
the capital market growth. Literatures try to find a relationship between money supply and growth
which new economy consider the growth is a vital role of financial structure.
The financial depth is the money in circulation in economy. Montiel 1995 stated that the financial
depth and economic growth related to (a) high efficiency of financial intermediation, (b) efficiency
of capital, and (c) increased national savings.
Researchers found a strong relationship between money supply and growth (CA, 1992); Weclock
1995 and Heber 1991). However, some studies argued that the relationship change over time
(Beckitti & Morris, 1992).
Said (2018) investigate the impact of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables in GCC. The
study used structural vector autoregression (SVAR) methodology. The study mentioned Saudi
Arabia and United Arab Emirates as the two largest economies in GCC. The scholar explained that
the monetary union will lose the autonomy on monetary instruments for example exchange rates
that stabilize the economy. The paper investigates the effect of monetary policy on GCC
macroeconomic variables of the country and how similar monetary policies on one country affect
other countries. GDP per capita which is GDP divided by population is the estimate for the
economic growth regression equation. Variables used are investments as a proxy for physical
capital and school enrollment as a proxy for human capital. The conclusion reached is that the
monetary policy affects both GDP per capita and investments.
Ogunmuyiwa & Ekone (2010) studied the impact of money supply on economic growth in Nexus
in Nigeria for the period 1980 – 2006. The study used time series data to run an Ordinary Least
Square (OLS) regression model to analyze and find the results. The study used time series data.
Variables used in the research are GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate, monthly payment rate,
and M2. The results show a positive significant relationship between money supply and economic
growth and development. However, the model shows insignificant relationship of money supply
to real GDP growth.
He (2017) in his paper “A study on the relationship between money supply and macroeconomic
variables in China”. The study used M2 which is the real total money as a measure of money
supply. Independent variables are real GDP, Inflation rate, and deposit interest rate to examine the
relationship between macroeconomic independent variables and money supply. The study
concludes that in the long-run the inflation might increase the money supply in China.
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Chude et al. (2017) studied the impact of broad money supply on Nigerian growth. The study
introduces the economy in Nigeria. Nigeria controlled the variation of money by fiscal and
monetary policies after the oil price collapse in 1981 because they faced deficit. The study
investigated the relationship between the money supply and GDP. The findings show that money
supply and GDP are closely related. The study used Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique to
analyze data, and the data obtained for the period 1987 to 2010 from the central bank of Nigeria.
M2 was taken as an indicator for money supply. The OLS shows a positive relationship between
money supply and GDP in Nigeria. This means that m2 has a large effect on output and prices.
Galadima & Ngada (2017) investigated the impact of money supply on economic growth between
1981-2015. The study examined the impact on the short-run and long-run. The variables included
in the study are GDP per capita, broad money supply M2, effective exchange rate, and lending
interest rate. GDP per capita is the dependent variable which examine the economic growth. The
findings of the study shows that in the long-run broad money supply has a positive impact on
economic growth but in the short-run it has a negative relationship. The effective exchange rate
has a negative relationship in the short-run and long-run. Lending interest rate has a positive
significant impact on economic growth.
Espinoza et al. (2017) in their IMF paper “monetary policy transformation in the GCC countries”
stated that GCC has maintained policy of open capital accounts and pegged to reduce the freedom
and adapt their independent monetary policy. To fix the low amounts of money markets, GCC uses
monetary rates by the central banks. The GCC central banks required the banks and financial
institutions to use reserve requirements, loan-to-deposit, and other tools to effect on liquidity and
credit to increase the money supply. The paper studied used panel vector auto regression model.
The study found a significant relationship between U.S. monetary policy on board money, non-
oil activity, and inflation in the GCC region. GCC monetary policy use direct instruments. The
rates of the interbank has a better tendency to the outcomes of monetary policy.
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3. Methodology
This section discusses the research methodology. The research methodology is scientific way to
solve the research problem. This chapter will outline the research approach, the research design
technique, population, sampling methodology, sources of secondary data, and collection and
analysis plan.
Board money
supply growth
Inflation rate
Economic growth
Total investments
Government net
lending
The economic growth variable Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth represent the dependent
variable in graph. The independent variables (explanatory variables) are broad money supply,
inflation rate, and total investments represents the model estimation.
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Where:
𝛃𝟎 = y- intercept of the equation
𝐢 = country
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3.3. Variables measurements
Table show the measure of the dependent variable and independents variables, references we used
to provide the variables and there predicted relationships.
Variables measurement
Variable Measure Predicted relationship References
Dependent variable
Gross Domestic Rate of growth - Ogunmuyiwa &
Product growth Ekone (2010)
(GDPGR)
Independent variables
Broad Money Supply Positive He (2017)
(M2) Growth (BMGR)
Inflation Rate (INF) Inflation rate Positive He (2017)
Total Investments Percentage of Positive Said (2018)
(INV) investments to GDP
Government Net Percentage of Positive Galadima & Ngada
Lending (GNL) Government net (2017)
lending to GDP
3.4. Research approach
To reach to the objectives of the research, a quantitative data used to analyze and compare. The
quantitate data provide clear facts with evidence and get a closer look to maintain and find the
reasons.
The population is used is the GCC countries to reach a conclusion regarding the impact of money
supply on economy growth in GCC. The sample size is 60, 10 observations for each country of
the 6 GCC countries. Non-probability sampling method selected to collect data from authorized
sources.
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3.7. Sources of secondary data
Secondary data in research collected and available for public and researchers. This data are easy
to find and available to everyone. Using secondary data has many benefits and advantages to
researcher because it is reliable, saves cost, time and effort to users. Quantitative research always
deals with secondary data which is found in journals, thesis, articles, and websites. Quantitative
data are collected from World Bank Account Data website and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
website. Table 1 shows the source of each variable.
Sources of data
Variable Source
Gross Domestic Product Growth International Monetary Fund
Broad Money Supply M2 growth World Bank Account data
Inflation rate International Monetary Fund
Total Investment World Bank Account data
Government Net Lending International Monetary Fund
Table 1. Sources of Secondary data
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4. Data analysis
4.1. Introduction
This chapter will analyze data and illustrate the regression model to accept or reject the null
hypotheses.
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On normality test, Kurtosis and Skewness used to measure the peakness or flatness of the
distribution. When positive Kurtosis is higher than 3 that means we have a peaked curve. All values
are lower than 3, means that the data are normally distributed. In skewness we have positive and
negative values which indicate there are long right tail and long left tail.
Correlation
GDPGR BMGR INF INV GNL
GDPGR 1
BMGR .349** 1
INF .447** .156 1
INV -.149 -.227 -.134 1
GNL .356** .301 .363** -.721** 1
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Table 3. Correlation results
Table 2 shows Pearson Correlation Coefficient results. Results show that the model does not suffer
from multicollinearity problem or any other problem. That means we can proceed to run the
regression. Results shows that there is a positive weak impact by money supply on economic
growth and it is significant at 1% level. Also, a positive moderate impact by inflation rate on
economic growth and it is significant at 1% level. Moreover, there is a insignificant negative weak
impact by total investments on economic growth. Government net lending has a weak significant
impact on economic growth at 1% level.
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4.4. ANOVA test
ANOVA test (Table 4) is Analysis of variance and it is a test to find whether the results are
significant or not. It helps to reject the null hypothesis or accept the alternative hypothesis. To find
whether the mean between two populations is significant or not, F-statistics used when run a
regression. The sum of Squares is the sum of squares of variation. It means the spread between
individual value and the mean.
F-statistics depends on the ration of mean squares. The probability value shows that the model is
significant and at least one of the independents is significant with the dependent variable.
ANOVA
Sum of df Mean Square F Sig.
Squares
Regression 201.739 4 50.435 5.199 .002b
Residual 407.429 42 9.701
Total 609.168 46
Regression results
Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized t Sig.
B Beta Coefficients
(Constant) -1.100 3.466 -.317 .753
BMGR .230 .104 .296 2.222 .032
INF .931 .322 .431 2.888 .006
INV .019 .138 .027 .136 .892
GNL .013 .059 .049 .225 .823
R .575
R Square .331
Adjusted R .267
Square
Std. Error of 3.11%
the Estimate
Table 5. Regression table
Table 5 shows the regression results of the model. The results determine the impact of money
supply on economic growth. R-Square indicates how close the data from the regression line. R-
Square is 32.1% explained by the regression model. The intercept of the model is -1.100. The level
of significance used in this research is 5%. Any variable lower than 5% will be significant and
therefore we reject the null hypothesis. Money supply M2 growth (BMGR) has a significant
positive relationship with GDPGR, that means the money supply has an impact on economic
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growth and the coefficient is 0.234 means evert increase in the GDPGR by 1 will increase the
BMGR by 0.230. This supports the study of (He, 2017). INF has a significant positive relationship
with GDPGR means the increase in GDP will increase the inflation. The coefficient is 0.931.
Inflation result support (He, 2017) study. The INV has a positive insignificant relationship with
GDPGR because the probability is higher than 5%. This support study of (Said, 2018) Also, THE
GNL has a positive insignificant impact on economic growth. The result support (Galadima &
Ngada, 2017) study.
𝑮𝑫𝑷𝑮𝑹𝒊𝒕 = −𝟏. 𝟏𝟎𝟎 + 𝟎. 𝟐𝟑𝟎 𝑩𝑴𝑮𝑹𝒊𝒕 + 𝟎. 𝟗𝟑𝟏 𝑰𝑵𝑭𝒊𝒕 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟗 𝑰𝑵𝑽𝒊𝒕 Equation 2
+ 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟗 𝑰𝑵𝑽𝒊𝒕 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟑 𝑮𝑵𝑳𝒊𝒕 + 𝟎. 𝟑𝟏𝟏
We reject the null hypotheses for 𝐻1𝑎 and 𝐻2𝑎 because there is significant impact, and we accept
the 𝐻3𝑎 and 𝐻4𝑎 because there is a significant relationship.
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5. Conclusion and recommendations
The study examined the impact of money supply on economic growth in GCC between the period
2011-2020 to answer the questions if there is impact on economic growth and what factors
influence the economic growth. The variables examined in the study are Board Money Supply M2
(BMGR), Inflation rate, total Investments (INV), and Government net lending (GNL). The
dependent variable is Gross Domestic Product growth (GDPGR). The answer of the questions is
that money supply has a significant positive impact on economic growth in GCC during the period.
Inflation rate has a significant positive impact on economic growth. Total investments have an
insignificant positive impact on economic growth. Finally, Government Net Lending has
insignificant positive impact on economic growth. Which means as a result GCC countries are
likely need to affect the GDP growth by affecting inflation by interest rates to affect consumer
price index (CPI) and increase the money supplied. The inflation also affect the exchange rates of
currencies.
As a researcher, I recommend examining more period and more countries and to get more
observations. For example middle east countries to get more accurate results and examine it in the
short-run and long-run. Also, I recommend including real interest rate, exchange rate, and more
variables.
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6. References
CA, S. (1992). Money Income, Causality American. Economic Review, 540-542.
Chude, Chude, N. P., & I., D. (2017). Impact of Money Supply on Economic Growth in Nigeria.
Dutse Journal of Economics & Development Studies, 2(October), 46-53.
Espinoza, Raphael, & Prasad, A. (2017). Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries.
IMF Working Papers, 12.
Galadima, M. D. (2017). Impact of money supply on economic growth in Nigeria. Dutse Journal
of economics and development studies, 3(1), 133-144.
He, Y. (2017). A study on the relationship between money supply and macroeconomic variables
in China. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 8(6), 99.
IMF. (n.d.). Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries. IMF Working Papers, 12.
Ogunmuyiwa, M. S., & Ekone, A. F. (2010). Money supply-economic growth nexus in Nigeria.
Journal of Social Sciences, 22(3), 199-204.
PJ, M. (1995). Financial Policies and Economic Growth: Theory, Evidence And Country
Experience, from SUb-Saharan Africa. AERC Special Paper, 18.
S, B., & C, M. (1992). Does Money Still Forecasts Economic Activities? Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City. Economic Review, 77(2), 56-78.
Said, R. R. (2018). A Monetary Union for the GCC. Journal of Economics and Development
Studies, 6(4), 67-77.
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