Elections 2022 - Second Round Federative Repu jor onde a lity - Prohibited Disclosure Compliance Analysis November Sth, 2022 >» ss 2022 SECOND ROUND BRAZILIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS REPORTINTRODUCTION This is the Second Round Brazilian Presidential Election report from the perspective of a Forensic Science consolidated method based on a statistical analysis observational process. The observational method used is Benford's Law applied to the original counting data.. The observated data used is available on the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court's (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral - TSE). The official data was downloaded directly from the TSE web portal just as the moment the original data set was available. Please check out the First Round Report. NEWCOMB-BENFORD’S LAW Benford's Law, also called the law of the first digit, or Newcomb-Benford’s Law, and the law of anomalous numbers, refers to the distribution of digits in various sources of real cases. Instead of expected homogeneity, the law states in many naturally ‘occurring numbers collections the first significant digit is likely to be small. Without homogeneity, this distribution shows digit 1 has probability of appearing 30% in a statistical data set, while larger values are less likely to appear. Frank Benford has shown this result applies to a wide variety of data sets, including electricity bills, addresses, stock prices, private equity prices, population numbers, death rates, river lengths, physical and mathematical constants, by power laws (which are very common in nature). All these statements are calculated or defined on a logarithmic scale ma ve | us | or | 7s | oy | se 1 303 [104 | 10 37 | 33 3 saa | 403 | 101 | 10 99 [ 99 Second Digit Another Benford Law technique used, works with the 2nd digit. The renowned researcher Walter Mebane, from University of Michigan, used this technique to evaluate the 2009 Iranian elections. Strong anomalies were found that indicated the victory of politician Ahmadinejad. In this series, the data were worked by electoralzones, considering the votes that reached more than 10 votes, in order to benefit only the 2nd digit. Last Digit Regarding the last digit analysis, we have a straight line, with the inversion of the parameters, instead of a descending curve with the ideal values of Benford 's Law. There is a lot of data and graphs of the entire electoral universal data from all over the country. As an example and indicative element, we bring some graphs described. Newcomb-Benford’s Law Applications - Judicial Evidence - Electoral Data Analysis - Macroeconomic Data - Tax Fraud Analysis of - Genome Data Analysis - Scientific Fraud Detection Following Benford's Law, or Looking Out for No. 1 By MALCOLM W. BROWNE, AUG 4,198 DR. THEODORE P. HILL asks his mathematics students at the Georgia Institute of Technology to go home and either flip a coin 200 times and record the results, or merely pretend to flip a coin and fake 200 results. The following day he runs his eye over the homework data, and to the students’ amazement, he easily fingers nearly all those who faked their tosses. "The truth is,” he said in an interview, "most people don't know the real odds of such an exercise, so they can't fake date convincing] ‘There is more to this than a classroom trick. Dr. Hillis one of a growing number of statisticians, accountants and mathematicians who are convinced that an astonishing mathematical theorem known as Benford's Law is a powerful and relatively simple tool for pointing suspicion at frauds, embezzlers, tax evaders, sloppy accountants and even computer bugs. (Benford's Law in New York Times) Unttos://www.nytimes.com/1998/08/04/science/follawing-benford-s-law-or-looking-out-for-no-1 html)BENFORD'S LAW IN BRAZIL ‘As we said at the First Round report, it is written on Auditors Brazilian Court (TCU) websit “Several studies have been conducted adopting the hypothesis that fabricated data is identified by digits deviation with respect to Benford’s distribution.” “Walter Mebane, an American statistician at the University of Michigan, has studied election data from several countries, including the United States, Russia, and Mexico.” "The researcher analyzed the data from the Iranian elections in 2009 and found anomalies that strongly indicated the occurrence of fraud in the victory of politician Ahmadinejad (Mebane, 2009).” TD seco ote 2 planiinas pare anal eletorais ge iu que @ contagem Considering the highest national auditing body recognizes and propagates the use of Benford Logic in public audits, including at the electoral level, we began to analyze the 2022 Brazilian presidential election first round data, and now we present theSecond Round Graphics. This technique allows us to make very quick conclusions about the numerical sets's consistency. NEWCOMB-BENFORD’S LAW IN BRAZILIAN ELECTIONS The 2022 Brazilian presidential election first round data analysis revealed statistical sets inconsistencies. This fact does not assert itself that there was intervention or data external tampering. This can only be affirmed after meticulous and detailed investigation from the standpoint of defending the National Sovereignty interests. There was undoubted proof of external access to the electoral operation system in recent past elections. The subject was headlined in several media and the electoral system operator itself recognized this fact, including the forwarding of documents to police authorities. But the 2022 numerical indications - regardless of this fact and before considering whether there were external vulnerabilities in the last election - corroborate the need for protective measures as a precautionary measure. Every Election Section represents an Electronic Ballot Box. A group of Election Section compose Elections Zones. It is very important to mention this report analyzes the data universe at Elections Zones level, not the Elections Sections. This Second Round object study are the consolidated data at Elections Zones organized by total 60 groups agglutinated as fallo a) Country Regions: i) North; ii) North East; iii) Mid West; iv) Southeast; and v) South. b) Vote Options: i) Bolsonaro; ii) Lula; iii) Blank; or iv) Null. ©) Benford’s Law Analysis Types: i) 1st Digit; ii) 2nd Digit; and iii) Last Digit. The 60 tables shown next contains the UMIs - Minimal Informational Units - used for the present study. It will be repeated several times during the text. It is generated in Portuguese,because it reflects images captured directly from the primary data processing. Its columns are as follows, with their respective meanings in English: Digit/Quantity Votes / NBList / 94st Digit/ NBL Pattern / Variation / NBL by Zones / Total NORTH Ast Digit De BeWrORD APLICADA NO 3" DITO POR ZONAS ELETORAIS PARA PRESIDENTE 2° TURNO -REGIAO NORTE CANDIDATE JAR BOLSONARO biosto F YoraLvoros matte X:1# oltTO PAORRO Wa. NBL POR ZONAS - NORTE 7 oon os RAK or 5 cael oer ia snciere —nontorm, a none BEGIN o ‘ rou no 5 somos Baan. _ 5 muss Ean. om > juss El sox 0 « wre Blea. om ° mas ou Ese om ToclGerst Aram) mye SON a eer) Lf1D& BENFORD APUICADA NO 1" Diao POR ZONAS ELEITORAIS PARA PRESIDENTE 2° TURNO -REGIKO NORTE camaro LUA x dferto F _roraLvoros mati x3" DITO pADRAO WoL NBL POR ZONAS - NORTE : sua 66 GRE aoe 7 “LE ie es claro stones 3 sues Mk an on 4 somm7 EEtbax ae om 5 pony Blox E796 se 6 woo Else Bam sox 7 mm 0 Em san sex ® vss Blom saw 1 . mop on Bax 6 aw com TotalGent ASB) ONO T0NK TT pees eras UE1D§ BENFORD APLCADA NO 1° DITO POR ZONAS ELEORAS PARA PRESIDENTE 2° TURNO -REGIAO NORTE caMDGArO Branco fe] lao: TOALVOTOS —_NaLie ‘2 DITO PADRLO NOL vARIAGKO NBL POR ZONAS - NORTE 1 2s KK ox “ 7 ee EE -s essere ——nosone, 3 ‘sos vy Es nox jas 4 sm on Blas Bam a 5 nom aw Ere nx * mam Blas Bae _ 7 ns oy Elam se je . ama 5 Bom Boe sm : 2a Bp Bsx Bam om Teel ws MORK kk sk DE BENFORD APLCADA NO 1*O/6ITO POR ZONAS ELETORAIS PARA PRESIDENTE 2 TURNO -REGILO NORTE ‘CANDIDATO Nua = dlono°% TorALvoros _Nas# Xai ADNKO NL NBL POR ZONAS - NORTE . 20) Jom 2 mae EE RIN ao eee : nee En Bax no ‘ nays Eo ae aa 5 me am Bre ma ‘ sas 9 baw Eom ~ > a8 pb Bax Ese oe : var op Daw saw 3 2 torn Da tee om a a a a2nd Digit {LE1DE BENFORD APLICADA NO 2 IGITO POR ZONAS ELEITORAS PARA PRESIDENTE 2" TURNO -REGIKO NORTE ‘ANDIOATO JAR BOLSONARO lomo =| YoraLVoros MBL %2e0MaITO PADRAO NBL VAAGAO [NBL POR Z0NAS - NORTE aan dicto | YormLvoros aL x22 o4ai0 paDutonet NBL POR ZONAS - NORTE a aa > en 00 —nonion TalGent sous LE1D& BenFORD APLICADA NO 2 blero ‘ANOIATO Branco = Dlomo'=) TOIALVoTOS _NaLZ_ x2" Diao PADRAOHML vARAGRO NBL POR ZONAS - NORTE estore —pontone, NBL POR ZONAS- NORTE 2 nin 2s Mies Minas fae > nm 5 aK ees so “ ser » la Ga 5 iam ee ‘ tama ee 5 js > ae = * 6 3 = ie > sr Pe Teulcest masse aU frases eresLast Digit {be nawono Ar UeADA No UcTaM0 blaTo OR ZONAS ELETORAS PARA PRESIDENTE 2° TURNO- REIKO NORTE ‘orwores naLeMo woLmMo hao ranean VANACAO NBL POR ZONAS - NORTE = = = sumone sone a = - in au ls =e me x ux a em Ok uw ede SS ae oe ae es an Sam ot Bier tt {wor nenroro aruchoa No Ua Diao FOR ZONA LETORA PARA PRESDENTE 21 UMNO REL NORTE i | I [NBL POR ZONAS- NORTE esarsesiers soso, tieval sAIBELE HH a5555 so enron arvesoa no Gio W/O FOR ZONA LSTORA PARA PRESIDENTE 2" UMNO REL NORTE tiano (= vorvoros ao OL DIO ono Ne RCO NBL POR ZONAS-NORTE . aera mae Be oaks mao a : v3 Baa mm : a ‘ ‘3 Sa Sem mm 32 q a0 ae =}: {soe enron arvana no Ua ofa FOR ZONA LETORA PARA PESONTE 2° TURNO -AEGK NORTE ‘cao ho ‘3 sao = vormvoros nado oro ks montonm vam NOL POR ZONAS-NORTE ° ‘com 2 sa a BS ee 3 pes) » Home) ae a ~ room, : oo a Sa ix : = f= a Ss : ‘sae or ; am > me x SS : iam a : ie x Sam ca SS : soo Se a mee ge > 8 a min : 2 3 SS Sete —- $0 Re km Sie : f= oo + Sr ES mee ee 38h 2 et ae me am tr egono sso Norio lo Po Toad TORN Pa PONTE TaN - Ma HRD cance rasronzos-nooe ae : 2s Samm mom sancti etn or : aoe : ° Sam Sue Gin Ss i : Some On So i : = om ie SS : : =e moo toe ee teee seis i i : hi INTE 2¢TURNO - REGO NORDESTE i i | [NBL POR ZONAS - NOROESTE a —esernoere neon, 3 Hosni aa THREE $58 scree nee ee re iar = rorLvoros samo tao oto soak at NOL POR ZONAS -NORDESTE BuxavexsecEMIDWEST Ast digit LELDE BENFORD APUCADA NO 1 bictTO POR ZONAS ELEITORAIS PARA PRESIDENTE 2" TURNO -REGIKO CENTRO-OESTE {ANOIDATO JAI BOLSONARO = slano\7 roraLvoros wat x:3¥ DtTo PADRKO Wa [NBL POR ZONAS - CENTRO-OESTE : nem 2 ae as : ee _ sate enone: : ous 7 Elsam a : eosn os El og oe 5 tas sas Joos ‘ paw ElsaN 0 + nso Bak fo . wn wD ak pent . wu nD saw om ‘tle Sanaa 27MM. poe aCe ees {EIDE BENFORD APLICADA No 32 biatTO POR ZONAS ELEITORAIS PARA PRESIDENTE 2" TURNO -REGIKO CENTRO-OESTE cancioaro LMA Slano|3| _roraLvoros wate x3¥ DtTo paDRAO not [NBL POR ZONAS - CENTRO-OESTE a or i =< voiere —nenlones TetlGewsl—asa0 ey [NBL POR ZONAS - CENTRO-OESTE sisare orion, NBL POR ZONAS - CENTRO-OESTE siren norton,2nd digit {ni De BenroRD APLCADA NO 2 DlerTO FOR ZONAS SLETORAIS PARA PRESIDENTE 2" TURNO -REGIAO CENTRO-OESTE ‘ANDIOATO JAI BOLSONARO leno rom voros mau x20 maoRto na vARACAO NOL POR ZONAS-CENTRO-OFSTE ° cas; on = : soot iS sso nono : came Nei : mane os am : suas RAN ON on : aus a a a ‘ on et oh > nas a is : oo 5 in ow = : om 8 Sax En lca See mK eae es {ur Bewrono Aric No 2 b/Gt0 POR ZONA ELTORAIS PARA PRESIDENTE 2" TURNO -REGiKOCENTRO-OESTE ‘anor WA * blao3%/ YorALvores ma.» s2¥ofaTo anno na vaNAco NBL POR ZONAS -CENTRO-OESTE ° are IR) KB 1 wa RA RRA BK) tos s0ier novo. 2 oe MN ETN ; so a= “ ca a as 3 male a a ‘ uot AR) ne 5 iam SOR, o 3 eo: on = PAT att tlt 11 ENFORD APUCADA NO 2 DITO FOR ZONAS ELATORAS PARA PRESIDENTE 2" TURNO -REGIO CENTRO-OESTE ‘AND. Branco * sia0:7/ YorMvores mau xno paoRtO NBL vANAGKO NBL FOR ZONAS-CENTRO-OESTE ° ea Mia EI =n citi : oer a 2 hoe ar ed ; time 2 lame sa) ‘ oan «Eos ia ls : sao » Son nas ‘ ins * ex Gx OS ; iam > ae mam & & : f ie £5. rr a a pares eras {lle BENFORD APUCADA NO 2 D/GTO POR ZONAS ELETORAI PARA PRESIDENTE 2" TURN - REOUO CENTRO-OESTE canoe Nao z leno voraLvoros Nau %2at0 papnKo na vARAskO NBL POR ZONAS -CENTRO-OESTE ° mas 2 an aes nm : ed ee es es viro nono, 2 ssn aes am ; a0 Eien) San in ‘ zat 2 Eas ios an 5 Bi » mn x : sou * Ex a ; ‘sor 2 ao ca s : ont 1s Hain im 3 ast 2 MRL) ke IRE Sn wulcent omy MaKe aw FS HeLast Digit ‘us or nawrono arucaDA no Utr@o Gro POR ZONA ELETORAS PARA PRESIDENTE 2" TURNO REGO CNTRO-OESTE iano rormWores nt Jenwo woo ofaro mono nL vaRACKo NBL POR ZONAS -CENTRO-OFSTE | evan diaro —enonlom, ! i : i ! i i | [NBL POR ZONAS -CENTRO-OESTE SEpEE HEEES cugEeEEes i APH HR i I i ; g i E i | I i i i i I { NBL POR ZONAS -CENTRO-OESTE a siemosiae noone, sees! ETB HE é Reeesecerse i i i | SoHE i uso senronD APUCADA No TI DIG FOR: i i i i : i "NBL POR ZONAS -CENTRO-OESTE senor —soslon, “| Aa g 3 BueeescerenSOUTHEAST Ast Digit {LE1D& BENFORD APUCADA NO 1" DfatTO POR ZONA ELEITORAIS PARA PRESIDENTE 2? TURNO -REGIKO SUDESTE ‘ANDIDATO JAI BOLSONARO =F siento ToIALvoros NOL %:3" cio mADRKO NaL NBL POR ZONAS - SUDESTE A —s Ss 90iero sonora, § 5 TotlGewsl 0M {f1De BENFORD APLICADA No 38 D/arTO POR ZONASELEITORAIS PARA PRESIDENTE 2" TURNO -REGIKO SUOESTE ‘anowaTo LULA = lao) TOTALVorOS BLP X38 cio PADRKO Wat [NBL POR ZONAS - SUDESTE estore —nasione, i TotlGerst 227m Ut DE BENFORD APUICADA NO 1#D/ITO POR ZONAS ELETORAIS PARA PRESIOENTE 2" TURNO -REGILO SUDESTE caNomArO Branco = oicno37 ro mvoros 2612 ofato paDnKo nat [NBL POR ZONAS -SUOESTE 7 ‘ss x oa - es olero nares ax a = Ex DloT0<7| TOTALVOTOS MALI 5 DlaTO PADaKO NOL NBL POR ZONAS -SUDESTE a -enstofere nanos2nd Digit {Lf De BenroRD APUCADA NO 2 DlarTO FOR ZONAS ELETORAIS PARA PRESIDENTE 2¢TURNO -REGIKO SUDESTE ‘ANDIOATO IAI BOLSONARO =F Se ee eee alae 2 SS ae as ee 2 2615.86 7 Ela) Ginx ~~ 2 2.628.569 2 Siw) Mio = + imam ae) ia am 5 a “ is ine 2 = an = po foo Se S s 2ms3 so Hii) Bax 208 : om i ioe es wixmelnne ee ae te ee GStrtapees icteric ste Seer nse soe caries 2 ee aks ae ae sacar aRLRSEReDNasieasa hess WES va FoR -E ° 2.685.256, eS a ee 2 Se es ee 2 2313.453, 101 Sao eo > Ee tie 2 ‘ 2.257.360 oo Esk Ginx — : ies: a a : io og =x i 4 a =m a 7 2 100.156 > in Sx 18 ee RE es ie pect aici Wars eed eiscma in resem ats“ Rue a ican mses _——‘wadPORTOWAS-suneE ° sae 1 ao nace, A 25) te RR ty messi : 3 2 Se Se ke | me ¢ on i A a = xm fax Gm 7 eon a 7 as: = Ex Miso 40% 7 mS 2 Bk Ee gs ° 146.640 ne Maw Gx Bax cm miami: el ep se States ananassae nes mn geerueme manne Se ee or a a ee Paap a reeiceen 2 97903 ee Leyed > po pees ios i wom tame ae a= : £m &= a mas : x man = ? a nn ko | Baox TK kon s 24.845 o iw Max 2s : oe 3 SS 7 wa tree easLast Digit {us newrono AnucADA No UiTIM0 OfGTO FOR ZONAS ELEITORAS PARA PRESIDENTE 2" TURNO ALGO SUOESTE aI a ata RS aceon znAs.su06sE or aoe Saeco ae. aie > G2 ° BS Ss = 4 arse > = ion — SS. 2 , dase 2: | ea in > SS oem be aa eee ieee azo cae anc ronioel inosts irae ws: ato nse an ei tat ne roR 20S. s0esE a ee [CoE = —_ Sot ~ ~ 2 faa Ft > Ge 3 ee cs 4 oa = Ex) Gx Bx oS > 3 ia fe oe zs —_— sf 2. = om i SS =e. 2 ; SS es meee ie wea tebe stron rscsoa no ke aro FOROS HATon PARA RESONTE 2 TUR Ak LEE sa Sa a ane we on Zon suoese o 150 ee a ee Stir DIGTS mono Ne { S20 Ses mee SE St a ee oor ed ti mime te SE oe oe i ; 3 saa es > & 3 Boe & so 3 5 ee eos wane es tmortnvots snus nwo lao ror ous Maro PAA Puget Ta ta Soe Sameera canine ve Pon 2Ow cNTRG OEE ee a a Seem i f° = soln a = ~ > = 2 Sees CSS a Do SF Sie aes > = 2 Smee es > = 3 Be mee § st ; 3 5 =o oo [os oe Fe ee eeSOUTH Ast Digit 1 D& BeNFORD APLICADA NO 38 DfarTO FOR ZONAS ELETTORAIS PARA PRESIDENTE 2" TURNO -REGIKO SUL ‘CANOIOATO JAI BOLSONARO = lao TOTALVOTOS LAP %DfaO Pane NL NBL POR ZONAS -SUL wes aoe aut Sx marx jon ex 0:cT0 —enoston 1975507 Bux ‘ ten2s a Eu sx 08 5 iss EE BE 2098 Jao 6 mau Elam Bore sm + mam om sax 0 : mass Blam sx ae [NBL POR ZONAS - SUL ciate ntonone [NBL POR ZONAS - SUL [NBL POR ZONAS - SUL2nd Digit {Uf DE BENFORD APLICADA No 22 DIGrTO FOR ZONAS ELITORAIS PARA PRESENTE 2° TURNO -REGIKO SUL CANOIOATO IAI BOLSONARO = ico ‘ota ert canovoaro HA = iaro DE BENFORO APUCADA No 2" {aNOWATO Brace, = i | i i i ToIALvoros mau %2¢ofaTO pADRKO NBL VARAGHO “100501 iu Mazes a Baecesteeees | | roraLvoros: «| z ae EU | EE asx Paescsceee 3 | HEE Tet roInvores mala 2 i | Z F: Qeseasseses sSEBBEEEBBE i iad : i : i { [NBL POR ZONAS - SUL sola novo, ee ae PARA PRESIDENTE 2" TURNO -REGUKO SUL NBL POR ZONAS SUL et PARA PRESIDENTE 2° TURNO - REIKO SUL NBL POR ZONAS- SUL BISON PARA PRESIDENTE 2" TURWO - REIKO SUL NBL POR ZONAS SUL A201 nodeLast Digit us newono ArucADA no ULTIMO Bia FOR ZONAS ELETORAS PARA PRESIDENTE 2¢TURND- REIKO SUL Soe oo =) Sa aa a an =a Sam = eax eS a an ma = & a is a oa a oe MOU us nawrono APUEADA No LTIMOBfaTO FOR i i | i Qeeaeesuces BEE mm as tc sen tis fa Gomis ora ror ss saan rio» som = mts mum moss nto ag ; [= fo oso i : = Som ome oo 5 oI ™ : —— = o ‘ [= = 2s aaa a fa eseetee eae ts eon rons Sauer ca aa : << 8 ar es ooo a oom ae Booted = =: qr = aimee: Senet [NBL POR ZONA - SUL NBL POR 2ONAS-SuL er runno- tek su NBL POR ZONAS SUL SS ee cos LITORAG PARA PRESIDENTE 2¢TURNO- ACARD SUL [NBL POR ZONAS.- SULSINGLE CASES As a planimetric overview, some graphics are presented next. These data will be more detailed in further reports, however their anomalous behaviors are so intense that it deserves a special overview. Compared with the First Round, even with different data, they present a very similar pattern.Ege It's a very low possibility that the same anomalous behavior occurs in a natural distribution pattern (almost impossible) in First and Second Round at the same State Region, including "zero" position. CONCLUSION Considering the data structure, the sixth column of each table contains the percentage variation that occurred between the parameter considered "ideal" for the Newcomb-Bendord’s Law - NBL and the actual data found. In several cells this variation had a significant amount. Obtaining the average variation of each table we have the following scenario; i) 47 times - in 60 scenarios - this difference exceeded the 10% variation mark outside the ideal NBL parameter. ii) In 11 occasions this average discrepancy exceeds 20%; ili) In 2 occasions it exceeds the average of 30%, 1 of them exceeds 40%.There are other types of variations outside the considered adequate standards, considering the 1st, 2nd and Last Digital analysis, as well as there are specific situations of more intense aggravation. However, these data are localized and need to be examined in the context of the national data set, Records found in the data sets generate the inversion between "descending curves", "straight", "ascending curves", which also occurred in the 2004 Venezuela case cited in the First Round Report, the same pattern has occurred now. ‘As mentioned in First Round Report, considering the analyzed data as well as the evidential profile of Benford's Law (and not probative), the necessary procedure to be adopted in sequence should be a deep and detailed audit, with analysis and comparison of PHYSICAL DOCUMENTS against the graphic evidence identified, in order to be able to elide or confirm the detected anomalies. From the point of view of forensic science, those grap! probable statistical scandal. It is worse than the First Round. Obs: This document is a work in progress and will be expanded in the coming days. The accelerated way in which the study was produced and reported may lead to eventual spelling and writing inaccuracies, and it is under review immediately after its conclusion.