Trend line projection

y a+bt

where a intercept

b slope

t time

t demand
1 22-Jan 547
2 feb 578
3 march 654
4 april 789 a 591.7121
5 may 964
6 june 878 b 35.87762
7 july 788
8 august 888 forecast demand on:
9 sept 978 1 23-Mar
10 oct 999
11 nov 879 2 23-Sep
12 dec 957
3 24-Jan

4 24-Apr
y 1129.876

y 1345.142

y 1488.653

y 1596.286
exponential smooting method:

formula last period's forcast*Aplha* (last period's demand +last period's forecast)
alpha (0.6) alpha (0.7)
sales forecast error abs (error) forecast error abs (error)
987
587 987 400 400 987 400 400
654 747 93 93 707 53 53
875 691.2 -183.8 183.8 669.9 -205.1 205.1
921 801.48 -119.52 119.52 813.47 -107.53 107.53
876 873.192 -2.808 2.808 888.741 12.741 12.741
948 874.8768 -73.1232 73.1232 879.8223 -68.1777 68.1777
789 918.75072 129.75072 129.75072 927.54669 138.54669 138.54669
654 840.900288 186.900288 186.900288 830.564007 176.564007 176.564007
564 728.760115 164.760115 164.7601152 706.9692021 142.9692021 142.9692021
564 629.904046 65.9040461 65.90404608 606.89076063 42.89076063 42.89076063
987 590.361618 -396.638382 396.6383816 576.86722819 -410.132772 410.1327718
578 828.344647 250.344647 250.3446474 863.96016846 285.9601685 285.9601685
964 678.137859 -285.862141 285.8621411 663.78805054 -300.211949 300.2119495
887 849.655144 -37.3448564 37.34485642 873.93641516 -13.0635848 13.06358484
965 872.062057 -92.9379426 92.93794257 883.08092455 -81.9190755 81.91907545
879 927.824823 48.824823 48.82482297 940.42427736 61.42427736 61.42427736
2531.519161 2500.231187

MAD(0.4) 152.502308 MAD (0.6) 148.91289184 MAD(0.7)

exponenetial
if you give important in the current
binibigyan mo nang magandang value
*weighted average of the data you are predicting

dollar sign - the value has to be contant (the same)

riod's forecast)
alpha (0.4) 0.6 0.4 0.7
forecast error abs (error) e^2

987 400 400 160000 160000 160000

827 173 173 8649 29929 2809
757.8 -117.2 117.2 33782.44 13735.84 42066.01
804.68 -116.32 116.32 14285.03 13530.34 11562.7
851.208 -24.792 24.792 7.884864 614.6433 162.3331
861.1248 -86.8752 86.8752 5347.002 7547.3 4648.199
895.87488 106.87488 106.87488 16835.25 11422.24 19195.19
853.124928 199.124928 199.124928 34931.72 39650.74 31174.85
773.4749568 209.4749568 209.4749568 27145.9 43879.76 20440.19
689.68497408 125.6849741 125.6849741 4343.343 15796.71 1839.617
639.410984448 -347.589016 347.5890156 157322 120818.1 168208.9
778.4465906688 200.4465907 200.4465907 62672.44 40178.84 81773.22
698.2679544013 -265.732046 265.7320456 81717.16 70613.52 90127.21
804.5607726408 -82.4392274 82.43922736 1394.638 6796.226 170.6572
837.5364635845 -127.463536 127.4635364 8637.461 16246.95 6710.735
888.5218781507 9.521878151 9.521878151 2383.863 90.66616 3772.942
2592.539233 619455.1 590850.9 644661.7

147.0724227715
A B C D E F
(0.8) C
period demand forecast forecast error ABS (error) SQUARED ERROR
1 875
2 887 875 12 12 144
3 845 884.6 -39.6 39.6 1568.16
4 865 852.92 12.08 12.08 145.926400000001
5 784 862.584 -78.584 78.584 6175.44505599999
6 779 799.7168 -20.7168 20.7168 429.185802240002
7 871 783.14336 87.85664 87.85664 7718.78919208959
8 845 853.428672 -8.428672 8.428672 71.0425116835841
9 914 846.6857344 67.3142656 67.3142656 4531.21035326734
10 975 900.53714688 74.46285312 74.4628531 5544.71649477069
11 964 960.107429376 3.892570624 3.89257062 15.1521060628275
12 831 963.2214858752 -132.221485875 132.221486 17482.5213270457
13 963 857.44429717504 105.555702825 105.555703 11142.0063988713
14 975 941.888859435 33.111140565 33.1111406 1096.34762951466
15 897 968.377771887 -71.377771887 71.3777719 5094.78631955283
16 886 911.2755543774 -25.2755543774 25.2755544 638.853649084922
17 798 891.05511087548 -93.0551108755 93.0551109 8659.25366004789
18 909 816.6110221751 92.3889778249 92.3889778 8535.72322353061
19 954 890.522204435 63.477795565 63.4777956 4029.4305297895
20 963 941.304440887 21.695559113 21.6955591 470.697285225512
1043.0949 83493.2479387769

mean absolute deviation 0.8 52.1547450125958

mean square error 4174.66239693885

mean absolute deviation 0.7 52.5816034381685

mean square error 4065.40808596659

mean absolute deviation 0.5 53.7833648681641

mean square error 3937.37234088425

mean absolute deviation 0.2 51.648175862438

mean square error 3880.05076314037

G H I A B C
absolute accuracy (0.7) C
Percentage error percentage accuracy Arithmethic accuracy period demand forecast
1 875
0.01352874859076 0.986471251409245 1.01371428571429 2 887 875
0.04686390532544 0.953136094674556 0.955234004069636 3 845 883.4
0.01396531791908 0.986034682080925 1.01416311025653 4 865 856.52
0.10023469387755 0.899765306122449 0.908896988583141 5 784 862.456
0.02659409499358 0.973405905006418 0.974094829569668 6 779 807.5368
0.10086870264064 0.899131297359357 1.11218461968445 7 871 787.56104
0.00997475976331 0.990025240236686 0.990123753423649 8 845 845.968312
0.07364799299781 0.926352007002188 1.07950324762198 9 914 845.2904936
0.07637215704615 0.923627842953846 1.08268715330399 10 975 893.38714808
0.00403793633195 0.99596206366805 1.00405430736697 11 964 950.516144424
0.15911129467533 0.840888705324669 0.862729924722286 12 831 959.9548433272
0.10961132172893 0.89038867827107 1.12310502638215 13 963 869.68645299816
0.03396014416922 0.966039855830777 1.03515397834183 14 975 935.00593589945
0.07957388170234 0.920426118297657 0.926291397882963 15 897 963.00178076984
0.02852771374424 0.971472286255756 0.972263543934667 16 886 916.80053423095
0.11661041463093 0.883389585369073 0.895567502234456 17 798 895.24016026929
0.10163803941134 0.898361960588665 1.11313706932196 18 909 827.17204808079
0.06653856977461 0.933461430225387 1.07128154160429 19 954 884.45161442424
0.02252913718899 0.977470862811011 1.02304839770282 20 963 933.13548432727

52.15

4174.66

52.58

4065.4

53.78

3937.37

51.64

3880.05
D E F G H
absolute accuracy
forecast error ABS (error) SQUARED ERROPercentage err percentage accuracy

12 12 144 0.0135287486 0.986471251409245

-38.4 38.4 1474.56 0.045443787 0.954556213017752
8.48 8.48 71.9104 0.0098034682 0.990196531791908
-78.456 78.456 6155.343936 0.1000714286 0.899928571428571
-28.5368 28.5368 814.34895424 0.0366326059 0.963367394094994
83.43896 83.43896 6962.0600459 0.0957967394 0.904203260619977
-0.968312 0.968312 0.9376281293 0.0011459314 0.998854068639053
68.7095064 68.7095064 4720.9962697 0.0751745147 0.924825485339168
81.61285192 81.61285192 6660.6575985 0.0837054891 0.916294510851282
13.483855576 13.483855576 181.81436119 0.013987402 0.986012597950207
-128.9548433272 128.9548433272 16629.351618 0.1551803169 0.844819683120096
93.31354700184 93.31354700184 8707.4180541 0.0968988027 0.903101197298193
39.99406410055 39.994064100552 1599.5251633 0.0410195529 0.958980447076357
-66.00178076983 66.001780769834 4356.2350648 0.0735805806 0.926419419431623
-30.80053423095 30.80053423095 948.67290891 0.0347635827 0.965236417346557
-97.24016026929 97.240160269285 9455.6487692 0.1218548374 0.878145162569818
81.82795191921 81.827951919215 6695.8137153 0.0900197491 0.909980250913955
69.54838557576 69.548385575764 4836.9779362 0.0729018717 0.927098128327291
29.86451567273 29.864515672729 891.88929637 0.0310119581 0.968988041876709
1051.6320687634 81308.161719
I A B C D E F
(0.5) C
Arithmethic accuracy period demand forecast forecast erABS (error)SQUARED
1 875
1.01371428571429 2 887 875 12 12 144
0.956531582522074 3 845 881 -36 36 1296
1.00990052771681 4 865 863 2 2 4
0.909031881046685 5 784 864 -80 80 6400
0.964661920051198 6 779 824 -45 45 2025
1.10594602292668 7 871 801.5 69.5 69.5 4830.25
0.99885538029467 8 845 836.25 8.75 8.75 76.5625
1.08128508118833 9 914 840.625 73.375 73.375 5383.891
1.09135216696971 10 975 877.3125 97.6875 97.6875 9542.848
1.01418582488588 11 964 926.1563 37.84375 37.84375 1432.149
0.865665719357962 12 831 945.0781 -114.0781 114.0781 13013.82
1.1072956197951 13 963 888.0391 74.96094 74.96094 5619.142
1.04277412855361 14 975 925.5195 49.48047 49.48047 2448.317
0.931462452003908 15 897 950.2598 -53.25977 53.25977 2836.603
0.966404323425938 16 886 923.6299 -37.62988 37.62988 1416.008
0.891380922589492 17 798 904.8149 -106.8149 106.8149 11409.43
1.0989249480916 18 909 851.4075 57.59253 57.59253 3316.899
1.07863447184846 19 954 880.2037 73.79626 73.79626 5445.889
1.03200447970775 20 963 917.1019 45.89813 45.89813 2106.639
1075.667 78747.45
G H I A B C D
absolute accuracy (0.2) C
PercentagepercentageArithmethic accuracy period demand forecast forecast er
1 875
0.013529 0.986471 1.013714 2 887 875 12
0.042604 0.957396 0.959137 3 845 877.4 -32.4
0.002312 0.997688 1.002317 4 865 870.92 -5.92
0.102041 0.897959 0.907407 5 784 869.736 -85.736
0.057766 0.942234 0.945388 6 779 852.5888 -73.5888
0.079793 0.920207 1.086712 7 871 837.871 33.12896
0.010355 0.989645 1.010463 8 845 844.4968 0.503168
0.080279 0.919721 1.087286 9 914 844.5975 69.40253
0.100192 0.899808 1.111349 10 975 858.478 116.522
0.039257 0.960743 1.040861 11 964 881.7824 82.21762
0.137278 0.862722 0.879292 12 831 898.2259 -67.2259
0.077841 0.922159 1.084412 13 963 884.7807 78.21928
0.050749 0.949251 1.053462 14 975 900.4246 74.57542
0.059375 0.940625 0.943952 15 897 915.3397 -18.33966
0.042472 0.957528 0.959259 16 886 911.6717 -25.67173
0.133853 0.866147 0.881948 17 798 906.5374 -108.5374
0.063358 0.936642 1.067644 18 909 884.8299 24.17009
0.077355 0.922645 1.08384 19 954 889.6639 64.33607
0.047662 0.952338 1.050047 20 963 902.5311 60.46886
E F G H I
absolute accuracy
ABS (error)SQUARED PercentagepercentageArithmethic accuracy

12 144 0.013529 0.986471 1.013714

32.4 1049.76 0.038343 0.961657 0.963073
5.92 35.0464 0.006844 0.993156 0.993203
85.736 7350.662 0.109357 0.890643 0.901423
73.5888 5415.311 0.094466 0.905534 0.913688
33.12896 1097.528 0.038036 0.961964 1.039539
0.503168 0.253178 0.000595 0.999405 1.000596
69.40253 4816.712 0.075933 0.924067 1.082172
116.522 13577.38 0.11951 0.88049 1.135731
82.21762 6759.737 0.085288 0.914712 1.09324
67.2259 4519.322 0.080898 0.919102 0.925157
78.21928 6118.255 0.081225 0.918775 1.088405
74.57542 5561.494 0.076488 0.923512 1.082823
18.33966 336.3432 0.020446 0.979554 0.979964
25.67173 659.0377 0.028975 0.971025 0.971841
108.5374 11780.36 0.136012 0.863988 0.880273
24.17009 584.1934 0.02659 0.97341 1.027316
64.33607 4139.13 0.067438 0.932562 1.072315
60.46886 3656.483 0.062792 0.937208 1.066999
1032.964 77601.02