Potts | CERaen | Canictoek SEP Global Commodity Insights Outlook for Global Potash Market ‘Aokita Pandey Sr Research Analyst wredjo Ahodo, PhD Potash Analyst etary 15,2008 Potash price development Potash price development October 2018 to January 2022 (Stone) ‘Raster ‘Senate Beau Ropes ‘Ueane ar masingeesWhat caused the high potash prices? Demand and supply ‘strong deman 1 Supply sorta dueto signicant ection in Belarusian velumes + High energy costs ‘Changing NOP devandand eperaionatuteaton cats, 20152021 foe a cc i a mt It ud Gorm nis ‘Glebal soucturalsowal af reduc wien supply avalabiiy from Betis oP producan to Tonnes) Potash price increases and affordability ‘Agmcutureand tener index (Jan2010=100,4) g : ‘Agreutureand MOP ndex(san 2010=100,%) ‘Sep SEs ESA Sp Esa sEpEENAnN EGET HGEgImplications of sanctions against Belarus and Russia on potash supply ‘The sanctions (Global: MOP supply balance, 2021-2028 00 tonnes) {The EU sanctions on Belauspoiash 1 PEGE saetesencos pate sng INO BCE — tetas + BPC banned femexporing via Kispoda ‘obat:Braksown ofdatareusionrerutetor2022(000%0N) 3p sae = 5 = aoe Potash supply — industry structure ‘osa! HOP produton by country, 201.2098 000tomnes)Potash demand — overview [MOP demandis relatively concentrated: 4 Top 8 makats= 75 of domard + Top marets=66% of domed ‘Global MOP impets profile, 2021 (000tennes. %) esgir + MOP demandin recert years: 65.704 tonnes + an erers: Changos pole, expansion of agcuture ‘+ MOP demand rowen, 2020-2088 2.0% ‘Global MOP demane iy region, 20162088000 tones) MOP demand reductions in key markets + 202 global MOP damandredced by ebout 2% lott OP demand by matketregbn (0 onne 2 5 erm hs + 202 Astan HOP demand dopped by &% ‘sian WOPdeandby mart ions 200m)Potash demand & supply —Asia ‘Potash demand: Asian MOP imports profi, 20202022000 tonnes.) Potash supply Aslan MOP imports by exporting courries, 2020+ 2522,‘000 tonnes, =) Groans vhs at Potash demand — India ESERERGrggrtoe ct e ecto rth pry aac 28520508) so ” sor cach mn ten ilPotash supply - India poor mpes by nporancourines 221202 (ootmes, MOP exparatnas mz2(o0toes 3) woe Policies & factors impacting on Indian potash demand “+ thanent Based Subd NS) Indi: Cropping seas & mony OP inp, 2020272 (000s) + tipamum Fetal Price (URE) 1 Mamum Supeort Pres SP) India: HSS ratefor pots & SP or Kia art Rab cope, 2012021 porta) oTRetail margins Ini: Average cont and magn estates for MPK 102525, 2027 (roe) eakeentao pce orm ih tn ts and margin estimates for NP 10.2525 (tom) eee errors JETER EA SEAS UEoBSUBoSS Conclusion Weexpect: + Tightnoss in supply unt 2025 *+ Potash market expected to mae towards over supplied zone from 2028 + Trading pattems to change betwoen 2022 end 2025 ‘tiven by availabilty of procucts from Belarus + Weak demand in China ~ Prices wil remain low Key watchouts: + When Belarus ges its ful supply status back, L. export at its typical volumes, + Commissioning of BHP Jansen + Uptake of poyhalto from Anglo American Some isThank you! erm hs