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Indictment Gives Trump A Political Boost, But Some GOP Operatives Won
Indictment Gives Trump A Political Boost, But Some GOP Operatives Won
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An indictment for any alleged crime, the accompanying perp walk and ensuing court
hearings may sound like a death knell for a politician on the ballot. But for Donald Trump
— hardly a normal politician — it’s a gift.
The former president has long thrived on chaos and turmoil as he’s successfully portrayed
himself to his supporters as a victim of the establishment, the "deep state," liberal forces
and the mainstream media.
"The Radical Left – the enemy of the hard-working men and women of this country — have
INDICTED me in a disgusting witch hunt," Trump claimed in one of a handful of fundraising
emails his campaign committees sent to supporters in the hours after Thursday’s
breaking news.
"Please make a contribution — of truly any amount — to defend our movement from the
never-ending witch hunts and WIN the WHITE HOUSE in 2024."
Former President Trump speaks at a campaign event March 13, 2023, in Davenport, Iowa. (AP Photo/Ron Johnson)
The Trump campaign announced on Friday evening that they hauled in over $4 million in
fundraising following the indictment announcement. The campaign touted the grassroots
nature of the donations - with an average contribution of $38 - and that a quarter of the
money came from first-time donors to the Trump campaign.
Word of Trump’s indictment came on the eve of the final day of fundraising in the first
quarter of the year, and the surge in contributions should boost the former president’s
campaign cash numbers when they’re likely revealed in the coming days.
Trump is expected in New York City Tuesday after a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict
him. He allegedly gave hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels in 2016
to keep her quiet ahead of that year’s presidential election over her claims she had sexual
encounters years earlier with Trump. The former president denies sleeping with Daniels
and denies falsifying business records to keep the payment concealed.
In the hours after the media frenzy, nearly all of Trump’s actual and potential rivals for the
GOP nomination defended Trump, most charging that the move by Manhattan District
Attorney Alvin Bragg was a "political prosecution."
The indictment firmly puts the 2024 spotlight back on Trump — where he wants it — and
will make it more difficult for any of his rivals to gain traction, effectively freezing Trump’s
position as the clear front-runner during the early legs of the primary battle.
"In the short term, there’s a rallying effect, there’s a fundraising effect, which Trump is
going to fully employ," longtime Republican strategist David Kochel, a veteran of numerous
presidential and Iowa-based campaigns, told Fox News.
South Carolina-based conservative consultant Dave Wilson noted that "it gives Trump a
bump in the polls. It’s a natural thing because he’s getting news coverage again."
With the indictment looming, Trump had seen his lead in the polls over Florida Gov. Ron
DeSantis grow in the most recent surveys. Among those polls is one from Fox News
released Wednesday that indicated Trump’s lead over DeSantis had doubled over the past
month, from 15 to 30 points.
While DeSantis remains on the 2024 sidelines, he’s expected to launch a campaign later
this spring or summer and is seen as Trump’s top rival for the nomination.
"The rumor that Trump is going to be indicted by the district attorney in Manhattan has
helped him quite a bit among Republican primary voters," Republican pollster Daron Shaw,
who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson, said earlier this week
ahead of the indictment news. "They view the case as politically motivated, and it
reanimates feelings that Trump is still fighting forces they see as corrupt and out of
control."
Donald Trump is the first former president to be indicted on criminal charges. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)
Shaw said the indictment "is rallying Republicans to Trump, making Trump’s claims sound
more legitimate" and making it "more difficult … for the other Republicans to get oxygen."
Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire’s survey center noted that ,
"based on past performance, the kind of bad news that would typically bury a candidate
will likely fire up Trump’s base."
But the big question is whether a short-term bounce is sustainable. And as details of
Trump’s alleged involvement with Daniels grabs outsized attention in the days and weeks
ahead, will the former president suffer repercussions with social conservative voters who
play an outsized role in Republican politics in Iowa and South Carolina, the first and third
states in the GOP’s presidential nominating calendar?
"Longer term — we need to know more," Kochel noted. "That stuff will roll out over the next
several weeks and months as you go through the process. Iowa evangelicals aren’t going
to like hearing about the former president paying off a porn star. There’s the potential for it
to be a negative in the long term."
But Kochel emphasized that "Trump is very good in going to guns when he’s challenged
like this."
Wilson said the question is whether Trump’s initial bump will be "sustainable over time."
"There’s going to be a question among certain evangelical voters as to whether or not this
is something they want to wrap themselves around when it comes to Donald Trump. It’s a
turnoff for some people, especially in the evangelical community," Wilson said.
InNew Hampshire, which votes second in the GOP primary schedule Neil Levesque, ,
"This will mean that Trump is front and center as we go into the nominating process,
whether good or bad. How much of a distraction and how much will other candidates be
able to get attention is a big question," Levesque said.
"As this goes forward, how much will Republicans say, ‘Is this the best candidate we can
put forward against Biden?’ Or will they double down and say, ‘He’s part of our tribe, we
need to get behind him?' Those are the great unknowns."
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