AutoZone

CASE STUDY

STUDINT NAME 1
STUDINT NAME 2 FIN 591
STUDINT NAME 3 Section 62628
STUDINT NAME 4
1
Introduction:..................................................................................................................................3

AutoZone:.......................................................................................................................................4

1. How has AutoZone’s stock price performed over the previous five years? What

other financial measures can you cite that are consistent with the stock price

performance?.............................................................................................................................5

2. How does a stock repurchase work? Why would a company use this tactic? What

impact does it have on: EPS? ROIC?......................................................................................7

3. How much of AutoZone’s stock price performance should we attribute to the share

repurchase program?................................................................................................................9

4. Assume that AutoZone is planning to stop its share repurchase program. What

would be the best alternative use of those cash flows? Why?..............................................10

5. What should Johnson do about his holdings of AutoZone shares?..............................12

Numerical analysis:.....................................................................................................................14

6. Estimate the impact of share repurchases on financial performance metrics............14

7. Estimate the impact of shares repurchases on ROIC....................................................14

Conclusion:...................................................................................................................................15

Resources:.....................................................................................................................................16

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Introduction:

In the business sector, shareholders invest in companies in exchange for capital

appreciation and income. Each company has the option to decide what will do with the
free cash flow either, reinvesting the cash flow in the company to grow or distribute it to
the firm’s shareholders. This option is based on many factors such as the stock price, tax
structure and long-term goals. Moreover, if the company reinvest the free cash flow, then
it could start a new project or add to retuned earnings for future use. However, if the firm
used it in distribute to its shareholders, it can do by shares repurchasing or paying
dividends (Dividend polices). This process of distributing the cash flow to the
shareholders called, management of the firm’ equity.

Share repurchase means the company buyback it shares from the shareholder in order
to transfer surplus cash to its shareholders. In addition, the price of share repurchases
come with premium to the current market price, which motivate them to sell their shares.
This process reduces the number of share outstanding. Another reason for it, sometimes
the company sees the company’s share price is undervalued (the market price is lower
than the book value), by making the buyback the price is push upward.

The dividends are after tax- profits and its common way to retune the surplus cash to
shareholders. Many of shareholders looking for stabile cash flows, that make the
dividends very important features in the investment decision especially those who are
depend on it.

Companies develop a strategy between dividend and share repurchase strategy

because it requires some legal requirements, restrictions for issuing of new shares for a
period of time. Also, they need to keep a certain debt-to-equity ratio, funding sources,
and so on.

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AutoZone:

AutoZone, an aftermarket auto-parts retailer. The first AutoZone store opened in

Forrest City, Arkansas, in 1979, under the name Auto Shack. The company changed its
name to AutoZone in 1987, and implemented the first electronic auto-parts catalog for
retail stores. In 1991, AutoZone went public, trading under the ticker symbol AZO on the
New York Stock Exchange.
Since 2012, AutoZone has grown to become the largest retailer of auto parts and
accessories in the United States, with more than 65,000 employees and 4,813 locations in
every state in the contiguous United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. Over the past 15
years, AutoZone has been profitable, and its stock price has appreciated significantly.
A particular issue in this case concerns Mark Johnson, a portfolio manager at
Johnson & Associates, who was reviewing his investments, which included his position
at AutoZone. Johnson was concerned that the reduced position of Edward Lampert (a
prominent shareholder who had begun liquidating his shareholdings in AutoZone) could
lead to the company ceasing to buy back shares if the company stopped using share
repurchases as a method of distributing cash to shareholders.

Lampert Position in AutoZone

30
Shares Held (millions)

20
10
0
/ 02 / 02 / 03 / 04 / 05 / 05 / 06 / 07 / 08 / 08 / 09 / 10 / 11 / 12
29 31 30 30 31 30 29 29 31 31 30 30 31 24
3/ 12
/ 9/ 6/ 3/ 12
/ 9/ 6/ 3/ 12
/ 9/ 6/ 3/ 1/

We Shares will
analyze AutoZone's stock price over the last five years and explain how stock
repurchases work and how they impact EPS and ROIC. In addition, the case lists a
number of alternatives uses for the free cash flow generated by AutoZone if it decided to
discontinue it repurchase program. The report concludes with a recommendation for
Mark Johnson regarding his AutoZone stock holdings and what he should do.

4
1. How has AutoZone’s stock price performed over the previous five years?
What other financial measures can you cite that are consistent with the stock price
performance?

Since 1997, AutoZone stockholders have had a sharply price increase, with an
average annual return of 11.5%. In the previous five years, the stock price had risen
considerably, reaching $348. The United States' economy had its worst recession since
the Great Depression in 2008, and the recovery that followed was abnormally slow.
Because the auto-parts industry is generally counter-cyclical, strong stock price
appreciation was a result of the U.S. economy's slump. To further show, the economy and
the number of kilometres driven by a car are both closely related and connected to the
company's growth and stock price. When the economy was struggling and unemployment
was high, fewer new automobiles were purchased, and older cars were maintained on the
road for longer periods of time, necessitating more regular maintenance.

AutoZone Stock Price Performance

Relative Cumulative Return

1200%

800%

400%

0%
6 7 8 9 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 0 1 1
/9 /9 /9 /9 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /1 /1 /1
/ 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 3 0 / 28 / 28 / 3 1 / 3 1 / 2 9 / 30 / 29 / 28 / 2 9 / 3 1 / 2 9 / 30 / 30 / 28 / 3 0
12 10 8 6 4 2 12 10 8 6 4 2 12 10 8 6 4 2 12
AutoZone S&P 500

As a result, the auto parts retail sector saw a significant increase in top line revenue.
With over 65,000 employees and 4,813 locations, AutoZone had grown to become the
largest retailer of automobile replacement parts and accessories in the United States by
2012. As seen in the chart below, AutoZone's financial results mirror its stock price
performance, including net sales rising from $6,169,804 to $8,072,973 between 2007 and
2011, a 30.85% increase. Additionally, during the same time, cost of sales increased by
27.430 %, from $3,105,554 to $3,953,510. The increase in cost of sales is less than the
growth in net sales, resulting in a 34.4 percent increase in gross profit from $3,064,250 to

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$4,119,463 during the previous five years. Furthermore, AutoZone's operating profit
increased by 41.65 % from $1,055,266 in 2007 to $1,494,803 in 2011, proving the
company's efficiency and profitability. EPS and the stock price of AutoZone are strongly
linked, and EPS is a major driver of the stock price. Between 2007 and 2011, basic EPS
increased by 130.97%, while diluted EPS increased by 128.25%.

In addition, AutoZone’s management used after-tax return on invested capital

(ROIC) as the main measure for determining the company's value creation for its capital
suppliers. AutoZone returned capital to its equity owners in 1998 by repurchasing shares,
which was funded by high operating cash flow and debt issuance.

As a result, the number of outstanding shares was reduced, resulting in higher

earnings per share. Between 2007 and 2011, the number of outstanding shares fell by
39%, and shareholders' equity fell to a negative 1.2 billion in 2011.

As a result, AutoZone's invested capital has stayed relatively constant since 2007,
resulting in increasing earnings and a good return on investment, as demonstrated in
exhibit 9 in the case. Because of these two factors, the stock price has risen during the
last five years. The AutoZone cash flow statement indicates that net cash supplied by
operating operations was $1,291,538 in 2011 and debt was $500,000, indicating that the
$1,466,802 in treasury stock purchases in 2001 were fully covered by free cash flow and
debt.

AutoZone’s Share Repurchases and ROIC

$1,600 35%
Share Repurchase Amount ($ millions)

$1,400 30%
$1,200 25%
$1,000
20%
Returns

$800
15%
$600
10%
$400
$200 5%

$0 0%
1997

2000

2001

2002

2004

2006

2008

2009

2010

2011
1996

1998

1999

2003

2005

2007

Share repurchases ROIC

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2. How does a stock repurchase work? Why would a company use this tactic?
What impact does it have on: EPS? ROIC?

As mentioned before, the company can use the free cash in two ways, the first is to
reinvesting the cash flow in the company for growing purpose or as AutoZone do
distribute it to the firm’s shareholders. They used the free cash flow in repurchasing
(buyback) shares “the transaction in which the stock issuer buys back its shares from
investors”. these shares are held in the company treasury and they become treasury shares
(stock). After the buyback transaction, the company must make the accounting entries for
it by debited the Treasury share account and credited the cash. This new account is a
contra-stockholders equity account and it shows in the balance sheet and it has a negative
single.

Many companies use the repurchasing shares tactic for many reasons such as, when
they reporting that their stock are undervalued (the market price is lower than the book
value), so they choose to buyback it shares to mateine their market value. Moreover,
getting advantage of income tax. If the company distribute its cash flow as a dividend,
then the shareholders are taxed at personal income tax rate in the same year dividends are
received. But, if its buyback shares the shareholders will get capital gains; also, the
capital gains are taxed at a lower rate. Also, companies looking for maintain the capital
structure by making the correct allocation between debt and equity. Usually purchasing
of shares is modify and maintain balance of debt and equity.

In addition, buyback provide the flexibility more than dividends, because the
dividends must be payed immediately rather than repurchase share it’s takes a period of
time and sometimes the company can cancel it and use the cash flows in the interest of
the company. Earnings per Share (EPS) is the most important measurement for valuing a
company and we can calculate by dividing the total earnings by the number of shares
outstanding. The impact of buyback shares will be positive on EPS, if the number of
outstanding shares is reduced, the EPS will increase and that will make the company
more favorable for investors. Also, the increase of EPS will make the price of the stocks
be higher.

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 Also, the repurchasing shares will return on Invested capital (ROIC), it’s one of the
best metrics to evaluate corporates performance. Keep in maid, there are some factors
will be removed when we calculate the ROIC like non-economic accounting issues and
financial leverage impacts. As the transaction done it shows on the balance sheet as a
reduce in the company’s cash holdings, and that will reduce the total assets and total
shareholders’ equity also. This is shown in this case where there was a significant
reduction of both the shares outstanding and equity capital. Shares outstanding had
dropped from $65,960 in 2007 to $40,109 2011 by %39.19, and shareholders’ equity had
been reduced to a negative $1.2 billion in 2011 it was $403,200 in 2007 that means it’s
reduced by -%411.06. As a result, AutoZone management focused on the opportunities
that led to revenue growth and capital stewardship. So, it's resulted in that strong working
capital.

We can see the relationship between the share repurchased and ROIC in exhibit 28.9,
the ROIC has a strong increase after the share repurchase. Moreover, this transaction
makes the growth of AutoZone to be huge and stable where the economy was in
recession this had made a large impact on issuing a likable ROIC. we can say now, ROIC
is clearly certifying that AutoZone is offering strong returns for its investors.

AutoZone’s Share Repurchases and ROIC

Share Repurchase Amount ($

$1,600 35%
30%
$1,200 25%
20%
millions)

Returns

$800
15%
$400 10%
5%
$0 0%
1996
1997
1998

2001

2005
2006

2008
2009
2010
1999
2000

2002
2003
2004

2007

2011

Share repurchases ROIC

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3. How much of AutoZone’s stock price performance should we attribute to the
share repurchase program?

Stock price performance and share repurchase has a positive relationship due to many
reasons:
 Decreasing in the number of shares outstanding
 Increase in the stock price during the repurchasing process
 Higher EPS due to decreasing in shares outstanding

In addition to collecting earnings per share, investors use the company's number of
shares outstanding to measure company performance. The number of outstanding shares
in 2011 was 43,603, which is lower than the number of outstanding shares in 2007. In the
last five years, diluted earnings per share increased 128% from an $8.53 per share in
2007 to $19.47 per share in 2011. Additionally, AutoZone's stock price has also increased
from $120 to $298 over the same period. This means that the increase in the number of
outstanding shares will result in a decrease in the price of the stock and, on the other
hand, the increase in the number of outstanding shares will result in a decrease in the
price of the stock.

AutoZone’s stock price performance was strongly correlated with its good
performance.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

EPS 8.62 10.14 11.89 15.23 19.91
Price 119.9 139.47 158.07 272.59 324.97
Shares Outstanding 65,960 59,608 50,801 45,107 40,109

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4. Assume that AutoZone is planning to stop its share repurchase program.
What would be the best alternative use of those cash flows? Why?

AutoZone could manage its cash flows in a variety of ways if it chooses to end its
share repurchase program. These options include:
 Paying out dividends.
 Expanding the number of stores
 Acquiring additional auto-parts retail businesses
 Repaying some of the company's long-term debt.

After evaluating the options, expanding the business with the company's operational
cash flows is regarded a reasonable choice. This might be achieved in one of two ways:
by opening branches (both domestically and nationally) or by acquiring other auto-parts
retail businesses. This expansion or growth is necessary for AutoZone to remain at the
top as the nation's largest auto-parts store and prevent competitors from developing a
foothold in those new markets. AutoZone Inc. currently operates multiple stores outside
the United States, including in Puerto Rico and Mexico. AutoZone's management, on the
other hand, must be aware of the risks that come with such expansion. There's no
guarantee that the expansion will produce the same outcomes that AutoZone now does.

AutoZone has been able to buy around 800 stores from its competitors since 1998.
As a result, AutoZone is well aware that, as an option to the share repurchase program, it
can use its operational cash flows to acquire its competitors' existing stores. These stores
would be deemed a smart investment because they would become productive and useful
far faster than new ones would (due to the fact that they are already built and available).

However, there are several disadvantages to this method. The auto-parts market is
deemed oversaturated or mature, implying that there are only a few competitors to be
bought (fewer targets for acquisition). Furthermore, this suggests that the acquisition
move could be stymied by the U.S government Department of Justice (as it would be
considered a potential act of monopoly).

We believe AutoZone should not use its operating cash flows to expand its business
because:
 The auto-parts store market is already mature/oversaturated.
 There really are limited places available for expansion (domestically)
 International expansion is risky and unpredictable.

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  It would be difficult to gain a larger share of the market without breaking
monopolistic rules.
Additionally, AutoZone might spend some or all of its operational cash flows to pay
down some of the loans it had collected over the years, most of which had been used to
fund the share repurchase. With a negative book-equity position and such a huge debt
load, it is suggested that AutoZone employ at least some of its cash flow to pay down
debt. This is for two reasons: the first is that if AutoZone gets into financial problems, it
may find it difficult to make interest payments and roll over maturing debt. Another point
to consider is that AutoZone could lose its investment grade, making future debt
financing more difficult to come by and more expensive.

AutoZone might also distribute its operating cash flows to investors in the form of
dividends. The company could choose to distribute the cash as dividends, share
repurchases, or a mix of both. Dividends were considered as a way to deliver cash to
existing owners, whereas a share-repurchase program would only pay cash to those who
were selling their shares.

Dividends, on the other hand, were taxed at the expense of other stakeholders in the
year received, while non-selling shareholders might defer paying taxes until they sold the
shares, if a share-repurchase program succeeded in increasing the share price. Dividends
were also thought to be sticky, which meant that the market expected a company's
dividend to stay the same or increase year after year. But on the other hand, market did
not consider share repurchases to be sticky because the quantity repurchased varies from
year to year.

As several companies do, AutoZone can choose to return shareholder cash through
both dividends and share repurchases. In the majority of these situations, the corporation
paid a consistent but tiny cash dividend and then repurchased shares at variable levels
each year, depending on the circumstances. The advantage of this strategy was that it
provided shareholders with a stable dividend while simultaneously providing price
support through share repurchases.

Finally, AutoZone should decide whether or not to take advantage of all of these
options and implement one or more of them, depending on the company's needs.

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5. What should Johnson do about his holdings of AutoZone shares?

Mark Johnson has three different options when it comes to his AutoZone Shares
holdings: sell, purchase, or hold. Each of these solutions has its own set of benefits and
drawbacks, which are detailed below:

If Mark Johnson sells his stock, he will have a better chance of earning a larger return
before the economy is growing and becomes strong, since if the economy grows and
becomes strong, the value of AutoZone shares will fall, lowering Mark Johnson's return.

Purchasing AutoZone shares has a favourable aspect if the stock price and value rise;
but, if the share price and value fall, he will lose money, and the same will be true if he
holds AutoZone shares.

Also, if AutoZone decided to suspend repurchasing shares, they would have extra
cash flow that could be used for expansion, new product launches, or debt repayment.
Utilizing this cash could have a favourable impact on AutoZone; but, if the firm is able to
manage its operations, the share price and EPS could fall dramatically. On the other side,
if the company is unable to effectively manage its operations, the stock price and
earnings per share (EPS) may fall, disappointing investors.

Johnson is one of the largest shareholders in AutoZone, and he was concerned when
he heard that Lampert, the company's majority shareholder, was quickly liquidating his
interests (AutoZone). Johnson was also worried about the future performance of
AutoZone's share price because he didn't know why Lampert was selling his investment,
which could have a negative impact on AutoZone’s investors. However, it is not required
that Lampert liquidating his stake is a bad indicator; he may be liquidating his AutoZone
stock for other personal reasons, or for better investment opportunities, since he may be a
financial buyer seeking a higher return, thus we feel Johnson should keep his AutoZone
shares. AutoZone's financial statistics demonstrate that the company is constantly
developing, with EPS, ROIC, and stock price, which are the most crucial variables for
investors, all expanding at a desirable rate.

We believe that AutoZone's investors will benefit financially from the substantial
increase of AutoZone's stock prices in the future. In fact, AutoZone's financial statement
shows no signs of a decline in its stock price, indicating that the company has been

12
creating a quantifiable value for a long time and that it will continue to do so in the
future.

AutoZone has a high bad debt ratio, which has a negative impact on the financial
security index. The company must either increase capital in debt to develop or pay a
higher cost of capital. Also, due to its large debt ratio, AutoZone's policy of using debt to
repurchase stock is inefficient. If AutoZone does not have enough funds to continue with
this policy, the share price will fall. While the policy of repurchasing shares with debt
would increase demand on the stock market, causing the business stock price to rise
above its real value.

Our recommendation to Mark Johnson is to keep his AutoZone stock because the
United States is experiencing a recession and will take many years to recover. When a
result, as the US economy improves, Mark Johnson's stock price will rise, and the
maximum level of AutoZone stock will result in a high ESP.

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Numerical analysis:

6. Estimate the impact of share repurchases on financial performance metrics

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
 
Gross Profit Margin 49.67% 50.10% 50.12% 50.41% 51.03%
Intrest coverage ratio 10.20 11.08 9.53 9.51 9.91
Current ratio 99.32% 102.66% 94.64% 85.24% 81.39%
ROE 147.7% 279.3% -151.7% -99.9% -67.7%
ROA 12.40% 12.20% 12.35% 13.25% 14.46%
Leverage Ratio = Debt to equity ratio 10.92 21.89 -13.28 -8.54 -5.68
Debt-To-Capital Ratio 0.92 0.96 1.08 1.13 1.21

  2007 2011
Gross Profit Margin 49.67% 51.03%
Intrest coverage ratio 10.20 9.91
Current ratio 99.32% 81.39%
ROE 147.7% -67.7%
ROA 12.40% 14.46%
Leverage Ratio = Debt to equity ratio 10.92 -5.68
Debt-To-Capital Ratio 0.92 1.21

Net sales have increased for 30.85% from 2007 to 2011. Cost of sales also increased
during that period, but at lower rate of 27.30%, what helped in additional
improvement of gross profit margin.

By reducing the capital employed, return measures also increase (ROA, ROIC).
The buyback will simultaneously shrink shareholders' equity on the liabilities side
by the same amount. As a result, performance metrics such as return on assets
(ROA)

As what we said before, as the repurchase done it shows on the balance sheet as a reduce
in the company’s cash holdings, and that will reduce the total assets and total
shareholders’ equity also. This is shown in this case where there was a significant
reduction of both the shares outstanding and equity capital. Shares outstanding had
dropped from 2007 to 2011 by %39.19, and shareholders’ equity had been reduced by

14
 -%411.06 from 2007 to 2011. In a normal cases we can say return on equity (ROE)
increases because there is less outstanding equity but here the shareholders’ equity had
been reduced too much until being in minis, that’s cause an reduction on the ROE by -
67.7% in 2011.
With holding the cash, the debt will increase as showing in 2007 to 2011 by 61.8%, and
considering the reduction of equity that’s reflecting in reducing the Debt to equity ratio.
As well as the current ratio are decrees as we use the cash in repurchasing and there is not
enugh cash even it’s stell positive and it’s meam there is

7. Estimate the impact of shares repurchases on ROIC

AutoZone’s Share Repurchases and ROIC

$1,600 35%
Share Repurchase Amount ($ millions)

$1,400 30%
$1,200
25%
$1,000
20%

Returns
$800
15%
$600
10%
$400

$200 5%

$0 0%
1996

1997

2000

2001

2002

2006

2007

2011
1998

1999

2003

2004

2005

2008

2009

2010

Share repurchases ROIC

15
Conclusion:

We strongly feel that AutoZone should not consider ending its share repurchasing
program and should continue with it after examining all possible scenarios for managing
their business cash flows. AutoZone was able to slowly improve the price of their shares
by implementing their share repurchase program/strategy (as the market views their share
repurchases as indirect dividends). Any movement from the company's repurchasing
program could be viewed by the market as a negative signal, leading to a loss of investor
confidence in the company.

However, if AutoZone decides to change their strategy and instead distribute

dividends, they will have to keep the dividend amount stable or improve it to always keep
the investors happy. AutoZone has been able to display a continually incremental and
improved ROIC throughout the years. The negative effects as well as the dangers
associated with the expansion plans, whether domestically or nationally, will almost
certainly result in a decrease in the company's value, as with the other options for
utilizing the company's operational cash flows.

As a result, if the price of AutoZone's shares continues to rise, Johnson & Associates
should hold on to its investment and focus on expanding its business inside the firm.

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 Resources:

1. Bruner, R.F., Eades, K.M. and Schill, M.J. (2018) Case Studies in Finance:
Managing for Corporate Value Creation, McGraw Hill, 8th edition.

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