Journal of Atmospheric and Solar–Terrestrial Physics 197 (2020) 105164

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Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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Research Paper

Recent trends in the UTLS temperature and tropical tropopause parameters

over tropical South Indian region
S. RavindraBabu, S.T. Akhil Raj, Ghouse Basha, M. Venkat Ratnam *
National Atmospheric Research Laboratory (NARL), Gadanki, India

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) region plays an important role in the climate system.
UTLS Quantifying the processes that control UTLS represents a crucial task. We assess UTLS trends and associated
Tropical tropopause tropopause parameters (Cold Point Tropopause temperature/altitude (CPT/CPH), Lapse Rate Tropopause tem­
Water vapor
perature/altitude (LRT/LRH), Convective outflow level temperature/altitude (COT/COH) and Tropical Tropo­
Ozone trends
pause Layer (TTL) thickness). This study is based on high-resolution daily radiosonde data from 2006 to 2018
over a tropical station Gadanki in south India supported by satellite measurements. The results show an increase
of CPH (LRH) of ~0.06 km (~0.10 km), decrease of CPT (LRT) of ~1.09 K (1.16 K), increase of COH of ~0.29 km
and decrease of TTL thickness of ~0.23 km in the recent decade. The vertical temperature trends show a strong
cooling trend at lower stratosphere (17–19 km) with a maximum cooling rate of 1.3 � 0.86 K per decade at
19.4 km altitude unlike reported recently using global radiosonde network. A warming trend is observed in the
entire troposphere (0–15 km) with maximum warming rate of 0.44 � 0.55 K at 11.6 km during the last decade.
Distinct variability in the temperature is noticed below and above the tropopause with the strong seasonal
change above the tropical tropopause (18 and 19 km) compared to the below the tropopause (15–17 km). The
observed trends are explained in relation to the ozone (O3) and water vapor (WV) trends over Gadanki. Compare
to the ozone changes, the WV increasing trend was found strongly influencing the LS cooling trend in the recent
decade over Indian monsoon region.

1. Introduction
The Upper Troposphere and the Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) region is
coupling layer in the atmosphere which is a consequence of transition
between the troposphere and stratosphere and the processes in the re­
gion may change the properties of both troposphere and stratosphere.
The UTLS plays a key role in radiative forcing, chemistry and dynamical
coupling (Shepherd, 2007). The dynamical, chemical and radiative
properties of the UTLS are in many ways distinct from both the lower
troposphere and the middle stratosphere. The existence of tropical
tropopause layer (TTL) in the UTLS region distinct the troposphere and
stratosphere. TTL is maintained by the interaction of convective trans­
port, convectively generated waves, radiation, cloud microphysics and
the large-scale stratospheric circulation (Highwood and Hoskins, 1998;
Sherwood and Dessler, 2001; Gettelman and Birner, 2007; Fueglistaler
et al., 2009). TTL is the source region for moist air entering the strato­
sphere, and therefore the TTL sets the chemical boundary conditions of
the stratosphere. Clouds in the TTL, both thin cirrus clouds and
convective anvils, have a significant impact on the radiation balance and
hence tropospheric climate (Corti et al., 2006).
Stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) across the tropopause is an
important bidirectional process for influencing the chemistry of the
UTLS (Holton et al., 1995).
The temperature in UTLS region plays a significant role in controlling
the TTL. Further, the changes associated with temperature can alter the
water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) concentrations in this region (Holton
et al., 1995; Gettlemen et al., 2009; Son et al., 2009; Fueglistaler et al.,
2009; Ratnam et al., 2014a; RavindraBabu et al., 2015, RavindraBabu
et al., 2019a, 2019b). The variability of temperature and tropopause
altitude in UTLS region provide crucial information for climate change
processes (Sausen and Santer, 2003; Thompson et al., 2012; Rao et al.,
2007; Ratnam et al. 2014a). However, the fundamental understanding
of the temperature changes and long term trends in the UTLS region
including the tropical tropopause parameters are still lacking.
Several studies have reported earlier on the trends in the UTLS
temperature and the tropopause altitude/temperature based on

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: vratnam@narl.gov.in (M. Venkat Ratnam).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2019.105164
Received 8 April 2019; Received in revised form 7 August 2019; Accepted 3 November 2019
Available online 9 November 2019
1364-6826/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
S. RavindraBabu et al.
different data sets i.e., in-situ observations (radiosondes), satellite
measurements and reanalysis data sets are shown the cooling at the
tropopause and increasing of tropopause altitude (warming) over the
few decades (Santer et al., 2003; Seidel and Randel, 2006; Rosenlof and
Reid, 2008; Wang et al., 2013, 2015; Garfinkel et al., 2013; Roja Raman
and Chen, 2014;Randel and Wu, 2015; Hu et al., 2016; Randel et al.,
2017; Philipona et al., 2018). This warming is attributed to the increase
of the greenhouse gases, aerosols, WV and changes in the O3 concen­
trations (Solomon et al., 2010; Santer et al., 2013; Butchart, 2014). Most
of the above-mentioned studies were reported based on the zonal
averaged or station-based or based on the different time period and have
come to different conclusions. For example, Seidel et al. (2001) found
~0.5 K/decade tropopause temperature cooling trend by using 83 sta­
tions of radiosonde measurements between �30o latitude band during
the period 1961 to 1990. Santer et al. (2003) calculated trends of
tropopause pressure during 1979–1993 by using European Centre for
Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis dataset and re­
ported that the global tropopause pressure shows a decreasing trend of
1.13 hPa/decade. Seidel and Randel, (2006) reported that the tropo­
pause height was increased of ~64 � 21 m/decade by using radiosonde
observations from 1980 to 2004. Roja Raman and Chen, (2014) found
strong seasonality in the tropopause trends over Taipei with significant
decreasing trends in cold point tropopause height at a rate of ~4.7 m
yr 1 during summer months. Hu et al. (2016) reported on trends in the
cold point tropopause temperature (CPT) during 1979–2014 by using
reanalysis data sets and chemistry-climate model simulations. They
found that the trends in the CPT are zonally asymmetric: it shows an
increasing trend of 0.22 K/decade over central pacific and eastern pa­
cific region whereas over the rest of tropical region it shows decreasing
trend of 0.08 K/decade. Temperature trend estimated using merged
satellite observation during 1993–2015 by Akhil Raj et al., (2018) shows
significant cooling (~0.8–1 K/decade) in the lower stratosphere over
Trivandrum and New Delhi. Ratnam et al. (2019) also observed a similar
cooling trend in temperature in the Lower Stratosphere (LS) for the past
3-4 decades over tropics from merged satellite observations and
WACCM-X model. A very recent study by Chen et al. (2019) over China
shows significant increasing trend in the lapse rate tropopause (370
m/decade).
Different conclusions have arrived from the previous tropopause
height/temperature trend studies. However, lot of uncertainty and dis­
crepancies in the UTLS vertical temperature trends were reported be­
tween different observational and reanalysis datasets (Wang et al., 2012;
Xie et al., 2012) and between models (Kim et al., 2013) in the recent
decades. By using satellite, radiosonde and lidar observations between
1979 and 2007, Randel et al. (2009) reported the cooling of LS at
0.5 K/decade over much of the globe. Bencherif et al. (2006) showed a
significant cooling in the LS about 1.09 � 0.41 K per decade over
Durban (30.0� S, 30.9� E) by using 22 years of observational upper-air
data recorded from 1980 to 2001. Begue et al. (2010) used 16 years
(January 1993 to December 2008) of the radiosonde measurements over
Reunion (20.8� S, 55.5� E) and estimated the trends in the UTLS tem­
perature. They also reported the cooling in the LS about 0.90 � 0.40 K
per decade. Garfinkel et al. (2013) studied the temperature trend in the
UTLS region during the period from 1980 to 2004 and noticed strong
warming trend in the tropical upper troposphere (UT) and a cooling
trend in the LS. Most of the above-mentioned studies observed a cooling
trend in the LS. A quite contrasting, very recent study done by Philipona
et al. (2018) reported the warming trend in the LS temperature from
global radiosonde data between 2001 and 2015 period. However, note
that Philipona et al. (2018) has not considered the radiosonde data over
India due to the lack of Global Upper-Air Radiosonde Records network
station over Indian region.
Indian summer monsoon region is unique and UTLS region temper­
atures show quite different from other regions within tropics (Mehta
et al., 2010). It was also reported that intra- and inter-seasonal vari­
ability in the Indian subcontinent ranks among the highest variabilities
2
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 197 (2020) 105164
in the World (Yuchechen and Canziani, 2017). It is very important to
understand the UTLS temperature trends and associated TTL parameters
over the Indian monsoon region. Therefore, by using high-resolution
radiosonde observations over a tropical station in India, we presented
the UTLS temperature trends in this study. The paper is organized as
follows. Database which is used for the present study, different tropo­
pause definitions and analyses for estimating the trends are discussed in
Section 2. The results obtained from the study and related discussions
are presented in Section 3. Finally, summary and conclusions drawn
from the present study are mentioned in Section 4.
2. Study location, database, different tropopause definitions
and analysis
2.1. Study location
The present study was carried out over Gadanki (13.5� N, 79.2� E),
which is a tropical South Indian station. Fig. 1 shows the June–August
mean composite of MERRA-2 reanalysis zonal wind (Tropical Easterly
Jet (TEJ)) at 100 hPa along with the location of Gadanki. One can notice
the existence of strong TEJ core over most parts of the Indian region but
with higher magnitude over South India region. Further, the south In­
dian region has a strong impact of both South West (SW) (June–Sep­
tember) and North East (NE) (October to December) monsoons. It also
influenced strongly through the convection from both Bay Of Bengal
(BOB) and the Arabian Sea during pre-monsoon season (March to May).
Further, the STE processes over Gadanki is active throughout the year
(Ratnam et al., 2014a). The locations which are represented as Asian
region in the Philipona et al., (2018) also shown in Fig. 1. Out of four
stations, three stations are situated ~25oN and one station was located
~19oN. Note that none of these stations will experience the unique at­
mosphere of south Indian region.
2.2. Database
In the present study, high vertical resolution and high accuracy data
obtained daily using Global Position System (GPS) radiosonde mea­
surements over Gadanki (13.5� N, 79.2� E) for the period from April 2006
to November 2018 are used. Most of the data during this period were
obtained from Meisei (RS-06G/(RS-11G) radiosonde, Japan made. From
these measurements, data of temperature (T) was collected from ground
level up to 32–35 km, with an altitude resolution of 5–6 m. Later it was
gridded to 100 m to remove outliers, if any, arising from the random
motion of the balloon. Quality checks are again applied to remove
outliers, if any, following procedure mentioned in Mehta et al., (2010).
The reported accuracy of T is 0.5 K and more details of different sensors
and their accuracy can be found in Ratnam et al., (2014b). The vertical
bars in Fig. 2b shows the total radiosondes launched in each month
during the reporting period. It is clear that on an average, available
radiosonde launches in each month are around 25–30 and in very few (3
or 4) months the launches are less (below 5) and there are no radiosonde
measurements during April 2007, December 2012, January 2013,
March, August 2015 and August 2018 due to the non-availability of
radiosondes.
During the same period (2006–2018), Aura Microwave Limb
Sounder (MLS) measured O3 and WV is also utilized to see the recent
trends over Gadanki. Version 4 level 2 data of MLS is used in the present
study and more details regarding version 4 level 2 data can be found in
Livesey et al., (2015). A 10� x 10� grid is considered with Gadanki at the
center to obtain a reasonable number of profiles from the MLS
observations.
2.3. Different tropopause definitions
To understand the variability and recent trends in the tropical
tropopause, we have used different tropopause definitions in the present
S. RavindraBabu et al. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 197 (2020) 105164

Fig. 1. The long term (2006–2018) June–August mean zonal wind observed at 100 hPa over Indian monsoon region using MERRA-2 reanlaysis. The Gadanki (GAD)
location along with locations that are shown in the Philipona et al., (2018) paper are also plotted.

Fig. 2. (a) Time evolution of vertical temperature structure along with cold point tropopause altitude (red line) and lapse rate tropopause altitude (white line) during
April 2006 to November 2018. (b) Total available radiosonde soundings for each month over Gadanki during the same period.

study. Commonly used one over the tropics is cold point tropopause
(CPH), which is defined as the minimum temperature that exists be­
tween troposphere and stratosphere (Highwood and Hoskins, 1998).
The CPH is an important parameter for understanding the WV transport
between troposphere and stratosphere, and the temperature of CPH can
control the WV transport between the two regions of the atmosphere.
However, the CPH is more prominent one that can be used over tropics
only. To define tropopause for the operational use, World Meteorolog­
ical Organization (WMO) was given one more definition called as lapse
rate tropopause (LRH), which is defined as ‘the lowest level at which the
lapse rate decreases to 2 K/km or less provided that the average lapse
rate between this level and all higher levels within 2 km does not exceed
2 K/km’ (WMO, 1957). However, in recent years, the tropopause over
the tropics is considered as a transition layer called as a tropical
tropopause layer (TTL) (Highwood and Hoskins, 1998; Gettlemen and
Birner, 2007; Fueglistaler et al., 2009). The top of the TTL is marked by
the CPH and the base by the level of the top of all the major convective
outflows, named as convective tropopause altitude (COH) and the alti­
tude difference between CPH and COH is the TTL thickness. The COH is
estimated from the potential temperature gradient and it is defined as
the minimum gradient in the potential temperature profile (Gettleman
and Foster, 2002). In the present study, we have extensively used all the

3
S. RavindraBabu et al.
tropopause parameters which are mentioned above to study the recent
changes and trend in these parameters over Indian tropical station.
2.4. Methodology
Monthly Mean temperature derived from the daily radiosonde
observation is used for the temperature trend estimation. In addition,
monthly mean MLS temperature, ozone mixing ratio and water vapor
mixing ratio are also used for the trend estimation. . To estimate the
trends in the tropopause parameters and temperature in the UTLS re­
gion, we have used regression analysis by using the following equation
(Randel and Cobb, 1994).
Tðt; zÞ ¼ αðzÞ þ βðzÞt þ γ ​ ðzÞQBOðtÞ þ δðzÞSolarðtÞ þ εðzÞENSOðtÞ þ λðzÞOLRðtÞ
þ resid ðtÞ
α, β, γ, δ, ε and λ are different coefficients, which are calculated using the
following harmonic expression,
X
3
αðzÞ ¼ Ao þ ½Ai � cosωi t þ Bi � sinωi t�
i¼1
where ωi ¼ 2πi/12.
If N is the length of the data, S is the sum of square of residuals, M is
the total number of regression constants and X is the input data matrix,
the error in the coefficients is given by,
rffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
S
σ¼ ðX T XÞ
1
N M
To see the effect of different oscillations on the trend, we have uti­
lized the QBO, ENSO, solar flux and OLR data as a proxy in the regres­
sion model. For QBO, we have used monthly mean zonal winds (m/s) at
30 hPa level over Singapore (1� N, 104� E). This data set is available
from http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo. We
used monthly-mean F10.7 solar radio flux indices as solar proxy and
downloaded from ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/monthly
_averages/maver.txt. We used the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI),
which is calculated from monthly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at
Tahiti (18oS, 150� W) minus MSLP at Darwin (13oS, 131� E) and is
available from the website, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/in
dices/soi. NOAA interpolated OLR is used as a proxy for convection.
This data downloaded from https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridd
ed/data.interp_OLR.html. The confidence level is set to be 95%.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Evolution of vertical temperature and tropopause parameters
The height cross-section of monthly mean temperature estimated
from daily GPS Radiosonde measurements from April 2006 to November
2018 observed over Gadanki is shown in Fig. 2a. The red colour line
represents the monthly mean CPH and the white colour line indicates
the monthly mean LRH altitude (Fig. 2a). Fig. 2b shows the total number
of radiosonde soundings available each month during the study period.
Significant seasonal changes are evident in the lower troposphere layer
(below 3 km) and the UTLS region (between 15 and 20 km) (Fig. 2a).
Whereas, in the middle troposphere (~5–14 km), the temperature didn’t
show any significant seasonal changes when compared to the lower
troposphere or UTLS region. In the lower troposphere, maximum tem­
peratures (above 300 K) are observed during pre-monsoon and monsoon
period, minimum temperatures are observed during the winter period.
However, in the UTLS region, the minimum temperatures are noticed
during the winter period and the temperatures are ranging from ~185 K
to 200 K. At the same time, the tropopause altitudes (CPH/LRH) also
show clear seasonal variation with maximum altitude during winter and
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 197 (2020) 105164
minimum altitudes during the monsoon period (Fig. 2a). The seasonal
variability in the tropopause over Gadanki is well reported earlier
(Mehta et al., 2010; Ratnam et al., 2014a; RavindraBabu et al., 2014). It
is common to observe that the CPH is always higher than the LRH alti­
tude and sometimes both shows similar altitudes. This feature is re­
ported well in the earlier studies over tropics and the CPH is typically
~0.5 km higher and <1 K colder than the LRH (Seidel et al., 2001;
Mehta et al., 2010). The long-term mean annual variation (climatolog­
ical monthly mean) of the CPH/CPT and LRH/LRT over Gadanki is
shown in Fig. 3a and b, respectively. The CPH shows minimum altitude
(~16.5 km) in August and maximum altitude (~17.5 km) in May.
Interestingly, the coldest CPT is noticed in the month of May compared
to the winter months (December–February). In general, warm CPT is
observed during monsoon months (July–September) and the warmest
CPT is noticed in September. Similar features are observed in LRH/LRT.
(1) From Fig. 3, it is clear that the tropopause altitude (temperature) over
Gadanki shows significant annual variation with ~1 km (~2 K) magni­
tudes. The minimum CPT/LRT observed in the month of May is quite
interesting and it is may be due to the enhancement of pre-monsoon
convection. To quantify the temperature annual changes in the entire
UTLS region (15–20 km), we have obtained climatological monthly
(2)
mean temperature at different altitudes and is shown in Fig. 4.
In Fig. 4, each color line represents the temperature at different al­
titudes and the standard error bars are shown with vertical lines. The
observed maximum and minimum temperatures in the UTLS region is
quite different from one altitude to another. The maximum (minimum)
temperatures at 15 km is in June (November), at 16 km it is in March
(November), at 17 km it is in September (February), at 18 km it is in
(3) August (May), at 19 km and 20 km it is in August (February). At 15 km
altitude, the temperature shows maximum in the month of May (201 K)
and minimum in the month of November (199 K). At 16 km altitude,
temperature shows more or less equal with the difference of only 1 K in
all the months. But, a large difference is noticed between 17 and 20 km
temperature with mean difference of ~5 K. The temperature at 17 km
altitude show more or less similar features of temperature observed in
the CPT (Fig. 3a). Interestingly, large seasonal variations are noticed in
the temperatures at 18 and 19 km altitudes with the temperature dif­
ference of 6 K. Temperature does not show much seasonal variation
below the tropopause (15 km and 16 km) but show large seasonal
variation above the tropopause (18 km and 19 km). The reasons for this
significant seasonal variation at different altitudes are discussed in later
sections.
3.2. Trends in the tropopause parameters
The monthly mean tropopause parameters along with the estimated
linear trend obtained from radiosonde observations over Gadanki is
shown in Fig. 5. Fig. 5a (5b) shows the linear trend in CPH (CPT), Fig. 5c
(5d) shows the linear trend in LRH (LRT), Fig. 5e and f shows the linear
trend in COH and TTL thickness. The time series of CPH (CPT) and LRH
(LRT) of each month during the study period was shown in Sup. Fig. 1.
The tropopause altitudes (CPH/LRH) show continues increasing trend
over Gadanki. The CPH shows an increasing trend of 0.060 � 0.01 km/
decade while the LRH is increasing by 0.10 � 0.01 km/decade. Note that
LRH is increasing with a little higher rate than the CPH. Interestingly,
the COH shows much higher increasing trend compared to the CPH/
LRH. The observed increasing trend in the COH is ~0.29 � 0.02 km/
decade. This increase in the COH clearly indicates the enhancement of
the convection in recent period over Gadanki. As mentioned earlier,
Gadanki station has a strong influence of SW monsoon as well as NE
monsoon. The TTL thickness shows the decreasing trend ( 0.23 � 0.03
km/decade). This is also high when compared to the previous report
based on the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) data from
1965 to 2004 on the TTL thickness trend reported by Feng et al., (2012).
They reported the TTL thickness was decreased by 0.16km/decade. CPT
and LRT show similar trends with a cooling rate of
4
S. RavindraBabu et al.
Fig. 3. Climatological-mean annual variations of (a) cold point tropopause altitude (black color)/Temperature (red color) and (b) lapse rate tropopause altitude
(black color)/temperature (red color) along with standard error observed over Gadanki using GPS radiosonde data from April 2006 to November 2018.
Fig. 4. Climatological-mean annual variations of temperature along with
standard errors at different altitudes in the UTSL region observed over Gadanki
using GPS radiosonde data from April 2006 to November 2018.
1.09 � 0.06 K/decade and 1.16 � 0.06 K/decade, respectively. The
CPT and LRT trends were quite similar to previous reports of Gettlemen
et al., (2009), Begue et al., (2010) and Bencherif et al., (2006). However,
the observed trends in the CPT/LRT over Gadanki are quite higher than
the previous reports based on the radiosonde observations by Randel
et al., (2000; 2006), Seidel et al. (2001) and Rosenlof and Reid (2008).
Also higher than the observed trend based on the GPS RO measurements
by Hu et al., (2016). The present trends in the CPT/LRT clearly show the
large cooling at tropopause over Gadanki (~1 K) in the very recent
decade.
To see the trends in the tropopause in individual months, we
5
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 197 (2020) 105164
calculated the trends for individual months separately and obtained
trends are shown in Fig. 6. Fig. 6a shows the trend of different tropo­
pause altitudes such as CPH (black), LRH (red) and COH (blue). Fig. 6b
shows the trend in the tropopause temperatures CPT (black) and LRT
(red). Fig. 6c shows the trend in the COT and Fig. 6d shows the trend in
the TTL thickness.
An increasing trend in CPH is found during all the months except
during January to March. The maximum increasing trend in CPH is
observed during August (0.165 � 0.11 km/decade) and decreasing trend
during February ( 0.047 � 0.09 km/decade). The increasing trend in
CPH is significant during the southwest monsoon season. The observed
trends in the CPH (an increasing trend in June–August) are quite
opposite from the results reported over Taipei (Roja Raman and Chen,
2014) where they found a decrease in CPH during June–August. This
clearly indicates the difference between Gadanki and other subtropical
stations. However, the statistically significant increasing trend in LRH is
observed during the end of SW monsoon and winter season. In general,
the LRH shows an increasing trend in all months except April to June
and the maximum increasing trend is noticed during the winter
(~0.23 � 0.12 km/decade). The COH trend is found different from both
CPH and LRH during 2006–2018. It shows a consistently increasing
trend in all months, however, the trend is statistically insignificant.
Fig. 6b shows the linear trend of tropopause temperatures CPT (black)
and LRT (red). The maximum cooling trend is observed during
November in CPT ( 1.66 � 0.77 K/decade) and LRT
( 1.84 � 0.91 K/decade). Both, CPT and LRT cooling trends are statis­
tically significant except in February, May, and June. COT over Gadanki
shows a consistent decreasing trend with a maximum during winter
season and minimum during Monsoon. The cooling trend at COH is
significant during April, June, September, November, and December. In
general, both tropopause altitude and convective outflow levels are
showing an increasing trend during the past decade with a cooling trend
in temperature. However, the increasing trend in COH is higher than
CPH (LRT). This can be lead to the reduction of TTL layer thickness. This
is what exactly we have found in the TTL trend estimated during
S. RavindraBabu et al.
Fig. 5. Monthly mean evolution of different tropopause parameters along with linear trend obtained from monthly radiosonde data from April 2006 to November
2018 over Gadanki.
2006–2018 and is shown in Figs. 5f and 6d. The thickness of TTL shows
an insignificant decreasing trend in all the season with a maximum
during winter (~-0.34 � 0.45 km/decade). In general, the trend
observed in tropopause parameters are linked with each other and the
changes in one parameter are reflected on others.
3.3. Trends in the vertical temperature
Fig. 7 shows a vertical temperature trend from the individual
response of QBO, ENSO, solar cycle, and OLR along with the tempera­
ture trend estimated from the regression analysis. The temperature
response to QBO is negligible or slightly negative in the lower tropo­
sphere and it is positive in the free troposphere as shown in Fig. 7a. The
annual mean QBO response on temperature shows maximum
(0.14 � 0.01 K/ms 1) around 18 km and minimum (0.020 � 0.01 K/
ms 1) around 20 km in the UTLS region. On the other hand, the ENSO
coefficient shows negative response on temperature in the troposphere
and it become positive in the stratosphere. However, we found a sudden
dip in both QBO and ENSO coefficient around 20 km and 21.5 km,
respectively. The annual mean solar flux shows negative response on the
observed temperature trend in the troposphere and a positive response
in the lower stratosphere. A reduction in the solar coefficient is also
noted around the similar altitude range where sudden dip in QBO and
ENSO coefficients are observed. In general, the solar flux dominates the
temperature trend and its magnitude varies with altitude. The solar
coefficient is small in the lower troposphere, however, it become larger
in the upper troposphere and maximum is observed around 14.1 km
( 0.93 � 0.66 K/100F10.7). The solar response become positive above
CPH and the maximum is observed 19.3 km (1.48 � 0.97 K/100F10.7).
The higher dependency of solar flux on stratospheric temperature may
be related to the temperature dependent ozone chemistry. The temper­
ature response to the OLR is shown in Fig. 7d. The temperature response
is positive in the lower troposphere and it becomes negative above 5 km.
6
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 197 (2020) 105164
The temperature response to OLR shows a strong negative peak around
tropopause altitude with a maximum of 0.016 � 0.023 K/Wm 2 at
17.2 km. The temperature response to QBO, ENSO and Solar flux is
higher in the LS than troposphere. Fig. 7e shows vertical temperature
trend after removing the contributions from QBO, ENSO, solar cycle and
OLR. Temperature shows insignificant warming trend below 15 km and
a significant cooling trend above 15 km. The maximum warming trend
(0.44 � 0.55 K/decades) is observed around 11.6 km and the maximum
cooling trend ( 1.3 � 0.86 K/decades) is noted above the tropopause
near 19.4 km. The observed cooling trend is quite different from the
recent report on the warming trend observed in the LS by Philipona
et al., (2018). They used Global Upper-Air Radiosonde Records between
2001 and 2015. Note that, they have not used any of the Indian station
data in their study (see Fig. 2 of Philipona et al., 2018). The present
results are quite different from their results may be due to the data
period (2006–2018) which is used in the present study. Note that, a
recent study by Kothawale and Singh (2017) clearly observed the dif­
ference in the vertical temperature trends between South Indian region
(latitude < 22oN) and North Indian region (latitude > 22oN) by utilizing
19 radiosonde stations across India during 1971–2015. They estimated
the temperature trends at different pressure levels (top level is 150 hPa)
and found a strong cooling trend at 150 hPa over South India whereas
the warming trend was found over North India. This is clearly evident
that the long term trends in the UTLS temperatures over South Indian
region are quite different from other locations in the tropics. The alti­
tude of warming to cooling trend (15 km) is observed below the annual
mean tropopause altitude (17.3 km). The maximum warming rate is
well-matched with the annual mean altitude of COH (horizontal blue
line in Fig. 7) and from the COH altitude, the warming trend gradually
decreases and came to zero trend around 15 km from then it decreases
with increasing the altitude.
In summary, the warming trend in the UT and a significant cooling
trend in the LS is observed over Gadanki. This cooling trend in the LS
S. RavindraBabu et al. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 197 (2020) 105164

Fig. 6. Monthly decomposition of tropopause parameter trends observed in the (a) tropopause altitudes (black and red lines) and convective outflow level altitude
(blue line), (b) tropopause temperatures, (c) convective out flow level temperature and (d) TTL thickness.

Fig. 7. Vertical trend profile of temperature along with QBO, ENSO, Solar flux and OLR coefficients. Blue color horizontal line represents the annual mean of COH
and magenta color line represents the annual mean of CPH over Gadanki.

may be either due to the decrease of O3 or increase of WV where both
will cause the cooling. The tropical LS O3 was continuously declined in
the recent period (Ball et al., 2019). Further, strong decrease in the LS
(100 and 82 hPa) O3 in July–August 2015 and 2016 is being reported
recently by using long-term MLS data (RavindraBabu et al., 2019b).
These changes in the recent period will strongly influence the UTLS
temperature trends. Therefore the UTLS temperature trend along with
O3 and WV trend can provide a plausible explanation for the observed
cooling trend in the LS and variability in the tropopause parameters. We
have used temperature, O3 and WV observations from MLS to estimate
the trend during 2006–2018 over Gadanki and is shown in Fig. 8. In
general, the temperature trend estimated from both radiosonde and MLS
shows similar features with UT warming and LS cooling. The altitude of
warming to cooling trend in both the radiosonde and MLS observations

7
S. RavindraBabu et al. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 197 (2020) 105164

Fig. 8. Vertical variation of trend in the (a) temperature (in K per decades), (b) ozone (in % per decades) and (c) water vapor (in % per decades) estimated from MLS
observations over Gadanki during 2006–2018.

are near 15 and 14.5 km, respectively. A recent study by Shangguan Stratospheric WV increases global warming and at the same time, it
et al. (2019) using GPSRO observation during 2002–2017 shows a cools the stratosphere (de F. Froster and Shine, 1999). Apart from this,
similar warming trend below 100 hPa over tropics. However, no sig­ the cooling trend near tropical tropopause again enhances the transport
nificant trend is observed between 100 and 50 hPa. of WV into the LS by enhancing the deep convection. According to
Kodera et al., (2019), cooling near the tropopause could cause a
reduction in static stability in the tropical tropopause and strengthening
3.4. Trends in the ozone and water vapor
of deep convection penetration into the TTL, particularly over the con­
tinents of Africa and Asia. An increasing trend in the altitude of COH is
Fig. 8b shows the O3 trend over Gadanki during 2006–2018. O3
also suggesting that the increased activity of TTL penetrating convection
shows an insignificant increasing trend from 12 to 16 km and a
over the Indian region.
decreasing trend between 16 and 25 km. The UT O3 trend is highly
influenced by the convection. The decreasing trend is higher between 17
4. Summary and conclusions
and 18.5 km with a maximum of 2.52 � 5.29% per decade at 18.7 km.
Our findings of O3 decreasing trend in the LS is quite matching with the
Daily radiosonde observations from the period April 2006 to
recent results reported by Ball et al., (2018). Their work suggests that O3
November 2018, i.e. 13 years, were used to derive the temperature
in the tropical LS (<24 km) continuously declined over 1998–2016
trends in the UTLS region and tropopause parameters such as CPH/CPT,
period. The ozone trend estimated by varying the final years (1998-
LRH/LRT, COH/COT, TTL thickness over a tropical station Gadanki,
2016, 1998- 2017, and 1998-2018) also shows a strong decreasing trend
India. To understand the changes associated with temperature in the
over tropics (Ball et al., 2019). WV trend is shown in Fig. 8c. Decreasing
UTLS, we used Aura MLS O3 and WV observations from 2006 to 2018
trend in WV is observed in the UT and significant increasing trend in the
over Gadanki. The important findings from the present study are sum­
LS. The WV trend is increasing with altitude in the LS and it reaches a
marized in the following.
maximum of 7.95 � 05.82% per decade around 18.7 km. Earlier studies
by Tian and Chipperfield, (2006), Hu et al. (2015) also reported an
1. Warming is perceived in the whole troposphere (below 15 km) and
increasing trend in WV in the tropical LS during the past decades.
the maximum warming peak is noticed at ~11.6 km altitude with a
In general, the observed temperature trend is consistent with both O3
rate of 0.44 � 0.55 K per decade.
and WV trend during 2006–2018. O3 shows an increasing trend in the
2. Significant cooling is observed in the LS and the maximum cooling
troposphere due to the anthropogenic source (IPCC, 2013). An increase
trend is noticed at 19.4 km altitude with a rate of 1.3 K � 0.867 K per
in O3 concentration in the UT is expected to increase the temperature
decade. These results are in not in line with Philipona et al., (2018).
since O3 is a greenhouse gas. On other hand, the decrease in O3 in the
Note that the study period is not the same. However, temperature
stratosphere results in the decrease in temperature and vice versa since
trend derived from MLS observations over Gadanki during the same
O3 is the major heat source in the stratosphere. These two aspects are
time period shows good agreement with radiosonde observations.
matching with the observed O3 and temperature trends. In addition to
3. The CPH (LRH) increases by 0.06 km (0.10 km) during the last
that, LS O3 concentrations controlled by both transport and chemical
decade. This is well correlated with the increase of the LS WV.
processes (Butchart, 2014). The transport effect is maximum in the LS
4. Quite interestingly, the COH is found increasing by 0.29 km during
compared to the middle and upper stratosphere, where the photo­
the last decade over Gadanki which is very high. This large
chemical reactions control the O3 concentration. Earlier studies sug­
enhancement in the COH clearly indicates the strong influence of the
gested that the increased upwelling are the major cause for the reduction
Indian monsoon over Gadanki.
of tropical stratospheric O3 (Oman et al., 2010). The increased tropical
5. The tropopause temperature (CPT/LRT) shows a decreasing trend of
upwelling also supports the transport of WV and methane from the
~1 K per decade which match with the previous reports.
upper troposphere to LS. The chemistry-climate model has shown that
6. The variability of temperature presented below and above the
the strengthening of Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) are results of
tropopause is quite different. Above the tropopause, the temperature
enhancement in the greenhouse gases (Butchart, 2014) and O3 depleting
shows large seasonal variability when compared to the below the
substances (ODS) (Polvani et al., 2017).
tropopause.
Oxidation of methane in the LS leads to the in-situ production of WV.

8
S. RavindraBabu et al.
7. Compare to the O3 changes in the LS, the WV increasing trend was
strongly influencing the LS cooling trend in the recent decade over
Indian monsoon region.
An upper tropospheric warming trend and the lower stratospheric
cooling trend is supported by the O3 and WV trend during 2006–2018
over Indian peninsular region. The cooling trend near tropopause could
cause a reduction in static stability and can increase the activities of
deep convections penetrating to the TTL. This aspect is reflected in the
increasing trend in the COH and cooling trend near the tropopause in the
past decade. Increased activities of deep convection and strengthening
of BDC together can cause the transport of WV and methane from the
upper troposphere to LS. The increased BDC also enhance the transport
of lower stratospheric O3 to the mid and high latitudes. However, the
chemistry-climate model predicts the weakening of the BDC in the
coming decades due to the reduction of ODS as a consequence of the
Montreal protocol (Polvani et al., 2017). This may lead to the changes in
the lower stratospheric circulation and thereby the trends in tempera­
ture, O3 and WV in the near future. It is to be noted that trends presented
here are from 2006 to 2018 but Philipona et al. (2018) estimated trend
during 2001–2015.
Acknowledgement
We thank the National Atmospheric research Laboratory (NARL)
balloon facility staff for collecting the daily GPS radiosonde data. The
daily GPS radiosonde data is freely available and can be downloaded
from www.narl.gov.in. We thank the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder
(MLS) team for providing data which is used in the present study
through their ftp sites. We also thank National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) for providing the OLR data. Data used in the
present study can be obtained freely from respective websites.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.jastp.2019.105164.
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