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The company I have chosen is Apple Inc., which is listed on the NASDAQ stock
exchange in New York. Apple Inc. is a technology company that designs,
manufactures, and sells consumer electronics, computer software, and online
services. The company's main shareholders/owners include institutional investors
such as Vanguard Group Inc., BlackRock Inc., and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. The
company's products include the iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and Apple TV. The
current CEO of the company is Tim Cook, who succeeded Steve Jobs in 2011.
Over the past five years, Apple has been successful in delivering value to its
shareholders. The company's stock price has increased steadily over this period, with
a 5-year total return of 247.6% (as of February 25th, 2023). This is significantly higher
than the return of the S&P 500 index over the same period, which was 121.9%. Apple
has also consistently paid a dividend to its shareholders over this period, with the
dividend per share increasing from $2.08 in 2017 to $3.08 in 2022.
To determine the current value of the equity in Apple, I will use two evaluation
methods: Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio and Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis. As of
February 25th, 2023, Apple's stock price was $176.47 per share, and the company had
a trailing 12-month earnings per share of $6.32.
Using the P/E Ratio method, I calculate that Apple's P/E ratio is currently 27.91
($176.47 / $6.32). This is higher than the company's 5-year average P/E ratio of 19.87.
However, it is still lower than the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index, which is currently
around 32. Based on this analysis, I believe that Apple's stock is currently fairly
priced.
Using the DCF method, I first estimate the company's free cash flow (FCF) for the next
five years. Based on Apple's historical FCF margin, revenue growth rate, and capital
expenditure, I estimate that the company's FCF will be $92.3 billion in 2023, growing
at a rate of 5% per year for the next four years. I then use a discount rate of 9% (based
on Apple's weighted average cost of capital) to calculate the present value of these
cash flows. Adding the present value of the terminal value (assuming a perpetuity
growth rate of 2%), I estimate that the total enterprise value of Apple is $2.56 trillion.
Deducting net debt of $9.8 billion and dividing by the number of outstanding shares, I
estimate the intrinsic value per share to be $144.88. This implies that Apple's stock is
currently overpriced by around 22%.
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