‘Weather and Cima Extremes 152017) 11-25, Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Weather and Climate Extremes Journal homepage: www.clsevier.com/locate/wace GIS-based climate variability and drought characterization in Ethiopia over three decades Qo KV. Suryabhagavan School of Barth Scones Adie Abas University, 0. a 1176 Adie Ababa, hap ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT egoonte: The climate variability and drought frequency over potential crop growing regions of Ethiopia during Cena dange 1982-2012 were analysed. Data from 7 weather stations ters the country were used for this analysis hina varity Ethiopian agricultural activities are highly dependent on the long rainy season (June~September) rainfall Dra ‘which accounts for 70% ofthe otal annual rainfall Thre was no significant change in rainfall during annual a 4nd the bimodal seasons during this period of study. However, there was sgaiieant change in the runfall ‘ocicient of variation. STARDEX precipitation indices provided a measure of intensity, frequency and proportion of total rainfall Nineteth percentile of rainfall, number of rainy days with rainfall > 10 mm/day fd the greatest 10 ttl rainfall were inreased overtime at most ofthe stations. Among the major droushts, 1984-85 drought was reported asthe most severe drought with peak negative SP value ~3.68 in Wollo. The longest duration of drought lasted for 6 months in Horena Zone in southern tiopia daring 1983-2012 period xtreme maximum temperature (0th percentile) has increased over 45% ofthe weather station, while, ‘extreme minimum temperature (00th percentile) has increased 53% ofthe weather stations treme maximum temperature events have boon inressing during the seasons in Ethiopia, which isthe real concen for sprcaltural and Hvestock activites, as these sectors sigaifically ntribute to about 50% af GDP for the ‘country. However, goon the inreasing response capacity af the government, 38 observed dating 2002-03 BV AWW Eye 2 2» : ° . Seeseenes bes . Seeareeneseeseac ERRRRRRREEELRRE EEE EEEELEEEEEr) Supe ‘Supe 400 80 yo soosns 25.241 | ae oon ca Varner ° Ded 10 2» 2 g 2 4 2 2 PEEL EELELEEE Eee ZERRERERRERER RS ie obras ee os 1 il nmr oy 0 tal, 1993) and, allows quantifying natural lags between precipitation rainfall inthe study region. dain otal. (2010) reported that there are a ‘and other water usable sources such as river discharge and the number of indices to quantify drought using meteorological data; reservoir storage. Standardized Precipitation Index was caleulated for however, the SPL isthe most widely used, which can be produced for 41, 3, 6 and 12 months time seales to assess the erratic nature of different accumulation periods at 10km resolution (MeKee et al,KY. Surabhagevon ‘Tables ‘Weather and inate rms 152017) 1-28 Pek SL vals fr 3,4 6 and 12 month ual chartering rout oe acted tay are of Bip Regions Zones 2 month SPH “¢monthe SPH ‘month SPI 12 month SP “2a <1 “96 sun 19% 1 oe eae! 203 20004 oss 5 aon 4 ao 4 aoa 1 ama 1 aoa 3 Ie 6 wr 1 ue 3 oes 3 ioe 20 was aot 8 200 8 boon 9 nooo 3 aoa 9 boa aoe 3 aoe 3 awn 7 Ios ise 4 ts 5 19 7-28 159 9 ame tam 1984 9 kk tom toe 4 nat 997 ts toe hy 5, Spat curtis of 1984-85 and 2002-08 drought we Eola 1998). The SPI index presents a better representation of abnormal ‘wetness and dryness than the Palmer indices (Gutman, 1999). Table 2 ‘hows the classes of SP, which was used to monitor day and wel spells ‘over Ethiopia. A drought event starts when SPI reaches ~1.0 and ends ‘when SPI becomes positive again. The positive sum of the SPI forall, the months within a drought event was referred to as drought magnitude. ‘Temporal drought characteristics such as drought magnitude (Dy) and drought intensity (D,) were determined using SPI analysis. The ‘magnitude of a considered drought event corresponds to the cumla- tive water defiit over the drought period (Thompson, 1999) and the average ofthis eumulative water defiit over the drought period was the ‘mean intensity as:i i aay il the of Pail i 1984 “ay And V eer ppr eye i i ‘Weather and Cate ares 15201 ee Hil jyu ite ones i { i ty qerr gp eeeye PEA qo era PEEP uo iy 6, Sevety of drought daring 1984-85 and 2002-08 oer deren es of tipi a ‘where, Dy is the drought magnitude, m is the number of months With drought event at j timescale. Drought intensity (Ly) defined as the ratio of drought magnitude over drought duration as @ where, 2 i the drought duration. 2. Results 3.1. Rainfall variability Considering climate variability importance for agriultural activities in the region, the study is focused over potential eropping regions of Bthiopia as displayed in Fig. 1. It is well understood that rainfall is highly variable under arid and semi-arid conditions. The rainfall over Ethiopia exhibited high variability over the study period. There was @ significant variation in climate spatially, particularly surface tempera- tre and mes annual rainfall due to altitudinal variations. For instance, surface temperatures at Adaiytw (507 m, Wolayita Zone) mean annual maximum and minimum temperatures were ¥7.7°C ‘and 186°C, mean annual rainfall was 343mm, while at Dinsho (3072 m, Bale mountain maximum aod minimmuen) temperatures were 72°C and 3.9°C, respectively and rainfall was 1387 mm. The mean ‘annul rainfall decreased from southwest to northeast with decreasing ‘levation, ranging from 1200 mm from Addis Ababa central Ethiopia to 5540 mm in the eastern Tigray (Fig. 3). Crop production in Ethiopia is highly dependent on the long rainy season, which aecounts for about 70% of total annual rainfall. Inter- annual variability in rainfall was higher than annual rainfall amounts. ‘There was no significant change in rainfall in annual, long rainy and short rainy seasons during the study period. However, there was significant change in the rainfall over the period particulary in dry teas of north and at low lying altitades. As no trend was observed in the rainfall amount and rainy days, STARDEX extreme indices were computed to address potential ‘changes in rainfall extremes. Precipitation indices provided a mix of measures of intensity, fre ‘queney and proportion of total rainfall, Ninetieth percentile of rainfall received showed an increase in the frequency and the intensity of extreme rainfall events in most of the stations, Opposite trends were also observed in some of the Zones of the country. Other indices characterising rainfall intensity (greatest 3d, 5 dnd 10 rain) also showed various trends depending on the weather station locations. The trends in greatest 10d rainfall showed an increasing trend at most of the weather stations. It was also observed that number of rainy days with rainfall >10mm/day and rainfall events such as greatest 10d ‘otal were significantly increasing ove time across the country (Fig. 4). 3.2, Drought frequeney and magnitude Rainfall data were further analysed to investigate the changes in frequency and magnitude of droughts over Ethiopia. As droughts were regional in nature and commonly cover large areas and extend for long periods of time, it was important to study such events within a regional contest. The properties of regional droughts was studied by studying the spatial pattern of at-site (point) droughts. Computed SPI at diferent time scales 1-, $4, 6 and 12 months indicated that for shorter time scales, there was a high temporal variability in dry and wet spells, whereas at longer time (12 months) scales fequency of dry and wet spells were considerably decreased. Several drought periods were identified across Ethiopia during the period 19883-2012 (Table 3). Major droughts occurred during 1983~'84 and 200203 across Ethiopia, which affected over 60% of the study area, Similasly, four months SPI displayed that 41% of the study area also confirms that 198884 and 2002-08 were the major drought years. Six and 12 ‘months SPI confirmed that 1983 and 2002 were the major droughtable 4 Drow characteris f 12smonth ie els fo he stations we in thi ta ‘Weather and Chiat arenes 152017) 11-28 Regions Zanen ‘Observe peal intensity (1983-2012) ong aration 1983-2012) ‘afar “Zoned “7 198 2 197 ‘mbar Bast Gorn 288 101 a 1998 North Shewa (3) a6 1985 = 205 Orwmin rst 1988 25 Bale 202 a8 ast Harerghe 1983 26 ast Shewa 198 9 ast Wellega oa 996 Iababor doe 2s North Shewa cK) 20 am West Harershe 1988 ox SNP Derashe Special Woreda 2 1996 Garaghe » ams Katte 2 im KembataAlabatembaro 3 oa Tigray Haste Tigray 208 7 ” 205 Seuthern Tray 198 RB a 2010 ‘years with 45% and 54% area, respeetively, of the country under severe “drought condition. Considering the severity of drought characteristics, drought maps were prepared for the 1984 and 2002 droughts (Ps. 5). “Temporal plots for SPI 3-,4-,6- and 12 month time seale showed that ‘mast ofthe locations had negative SPI for both drought years (i. 6) ‘Table 4 provides a basis for analysing the spatial and temporal, drought characteristics, and their impacts over selected study areas. ‘The SPI 3+, 4-, 6 (not shown) and 12 months SPI were analysed to identify peak drought intensity, occurrence year and month over the study’ ares. Longest drought duration, drought magnitude and corre sponding drought intensity were cileulated over Ethiopia, Three significant drought periods occurred in the years 1984~'85, 1988-'89 ‘and 200203. Drought in 1984~'85 was reported as the most severe ‘with peak negative SPI value of Fig. 7 displays thatthe frequency of drought was very high in the ‘astern regions of Ethiopia, while northern and southern Ethiopia showed higher magnitude and duration of drought events. Western Ethiopia exhibited two drought situations one with higher magnitude (2002~03) as well as duration. From the plot, it was evident that in al the locations 1983'84 drought were identified with severe magnitude ‘and intensity, while the 2002-08 was noticed in three regions. However, northern part of Ethiopia did not show a severe drought, 33. Temperature variability Surface temperatures were steadily inereasing in Ethiopia over the study period, The majority of weather stations observed a siguifcant trend both in maximum and minimum temperatures. Minimum temperature showed a steady increase over time at most of the locations, and the mean surface temperature spatially exhibited significant increasing trend (Fig. 8). AS expected, mean temperatures are ineeasing because of increase in night temperatures, posiby as a result of rise in anthropogenic emissions overtime. STARDEX extreme temperature indices are computed to examine the ehanges in extreme Temperature events across the country. 90th percentiles of daily ‘maximum and minimum temperature distribution present a seasonal trends in the magnitude for the period 1983-12, In terms of ‘magnitude 90th percentile of minimum temperature apparently showed high values than 90th percentile maximum temperatures. Few stations with significant tends fn 90th percentile of maximum temperatures are displayed in (Fig. 9). The spatial patterns for 90th Percentile maximum temperature for various meteorological seasons (OP, MAM, JJA, and SON) and annual showed a significant increasing trend (Figs. 10 and 11). Plots 9 and 10 had a number of stations, which exhibited significant changes in 90th percentile of maxima and ‘minimum temperatures. Approximately 45% of the stations showed that the extreme maximum temperatures were increasing, with ex- treme night temperatures also increasing across the country. Almost 58% ofthe stations showed a significant trend. Seasonal trends were examined to determine whether there is any season with signiicant changes in the indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperature and if the warming observed in the annual indices based ‘on the daily maximum and minimum can be attributed toa particular season. Similarly, 90th percentile of minimum temperature exhibited a significantly increasing trend across the country with sight difference Jn the strength and significance of the trends. Annual extreme ‘maximum temperature episodes were spatially increasing, the pre- and post-cropping seasons, DJF and SON also displayed a significanteee. ‘Weather and Chiat arenes 152017) 11-28 Easter hop: West Marerhe | om attach EERELELGRRRRERERG GRRE RS es eee Level ofsignitieance II: Signifeance ee ee HEEINS: Non Sgniteance fen ig 8. Tends in aberved ma surfae temperatures over Hip (Sgn, Ne mania at 95% anda itera)ais 25 yeoasses nase | eta BR Bo i eee eae FGRRRERRE SEES 8g ven Alabo ua = R=02771 hs “GEORSESESGREREG ‘Weather and Chiat arenes 152017) 11-28 odessa A = R= 0.2923 BS ef IV g Ew 2 ° SRERERREREESE EE Sibusire WA se Yeegnees sens is gs es zu SEEREERERE EERE 3 vers crease in extreme maximum temperature incidents. Extreme max- imum temperature events were significantly increasing during MAM and JJA seasons over Ethiopia, which as the real concern for ‘agricultural and Fivestock activities as these sectors signtiantly con- Uribute to GDP for the eountey, potential erop growing areas. 4. Discussion Negative efcts of drought could be minimized through developing ‘adaptive strategies at household, regional and national scales Ghepherd et al, 2013), Therefore, implementation of drought risk ‘management strategies is critical to eliminate poverty and to improve food security. In Ethiopia, the 1983~84 drought was the most disastrous, with loss of life in hundreds of thousands, partiulaey in the northern part ofthe eountry. The drought effect of the 1980s was ‘exacerbated by years of military confrontation between various political ‘groups which ereated non-stailty for farmers to conduct regular farming operations, for local institutions to improve water manage- ‘ment establishment and providing appropriate crop varieties and extension support. Non-slability also reduced the eapacity of the {government to respond to emergency calls, both financially and Instutionally due to other priorities, with most of the resources allocated for other development activities. Non-governmental organi- zations had also limited physical access to these areas due to security 1d political concerns. On the other hand, though the droughts of 2002-03 wore as sever as 1983, as indicated by SPI, the negative effect ‘on the lives of people and envitonment was very much limited due to an inereased capacity ofthe local and national institutes to respond immediatly. The response was not only associated with food aid, but ‘ako through helping the communities to get aes to inputs for the nest growing season, helping them to get access to water for the livestock through shallow wells and ereting local resilience capacity introducing safetynet programmes. These interventions would help ‘communities not only to minimize immediate drought effets, but also Duild national capacity in climate change adaptation (Vijay et al, 2012) Extreme rainfall events poses major challenges to agricultural activities by reducing crop yields, gain quality, ground water recharge ‘and soil erosion (Semenov and Porter, 1995; Mears, 1995; Mearns ct al, 1997; Hu et al, 2012)."The IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report (ARS) reviled that there was no much inevease in mean annual rainfall over the eastern Aftica under low-emission scenario. While, under high emission scenario, there was a Tikely inerease in mean annual rainfall amounts over eastern Africa, In the nest two oF three deeades, the expected increase in climate extremes will probably be relatively small compared to the normal year-to-year variations in such extremes, However, as climate change impacts become more dramatic, their eflect on a range of elimate extremes in Africa, including heavy rainfall hheat waves and drought, will become inereasingly important and will play a more significant roe in disaster impacts, A better understanding of climate, current trends, changes in extremes events and its impliea- tions for erop productivity is critical in policy formulation, decision ‘making and creating capacity in adapting to the ehanges to protect Une livelihoods of the poor ftom elimate shocks and to ensure food security Jn short and long-term, Substantial warming across the country was noticed during last three decades. Maximum, minimum and mean temperatures showed a steady inerease in observed temperatures recorded during last three decades. STARDEX extreme temperature episodes such as 90th percentile of maximum and minimum temperatures revealed that there was a significantly increasing trends in extreme temperatures, approximately 50% of the weather stations in Ethiopia. showed signifieant trends in surface warming. Inereasing temperatures ean be expected to induce earlier and faster development of crops, and cause increased pest damage at the sensitive earlier stages of exop development. Droughts produce a complex web of impacts that span many’sectors of the society, including economy and may reach well beyond the area txperiencing a drought. This isa widespread phenomenon as about half ofthe earth's terrestrial surface is susceptible to drought (Kogan, 1997) Of all the 200h century natural hazards, droughts have had the sreatest detrimental impact (Bruce, 1994; Obasi, 1994). ‘The findings ofthis study ean be used for improvement of regional, Arought monitoring. Taking into account the spatial extension and frequency of drought and lack of timely ground data observations, the application of remotely sensed data could play a key role for drought ‘monitoring and drought prediction, which is essential for governments to implement mitigative measures in advance. Drought ean be miliN Legend Legend een OTE iy wart 8a 8 es0-0498 Tie ee © cus. can | TEV eee © cuz. o76 © cus. c N ‘Weather and Cate ares 15201 N N 0 Percentile SON maximum temperature N Legend Legend Tan sik ‘mmc SON SBip so ow we @ ous-omy | Tmo Sa Swe @ ost8-o0t gated either by adopting preventive measures or by developing. a preparedness plan. Preparedness refers to pre-disaster activities to increase the level of readiness, or improve operational and institutional ‘capabilities for responding to drought (Gopis, 2010). In onder to delineate an implementable drought mitigation strategy, rsk areas are to be identified on the basis of historical records to establish priority zones for comprehensive and integrated development pro- ‘grammes aimed at drought proofing and mitigation. Mitigation ean be Scientifically equated with resistance as a combination of avoidance, tolerance and resilience. Farmers diversity their cropping. practices using a mix of rop species both in space and time (es, intereropping ‘of diferent crop species and varieties, strip eropping, double cropping), ‘growing diferent cultivars at different sowing dates, combining, less productive drought-resistant cultivars with high-yielding but water- sensitive erops (Bekele etal, 2014), Nevertheless, managing droughts effectively in vulnerable areas requires diversifying livelihood strategies ‘and income generating options within and outside agreulture espe- ally through non-farm enterprises and employment opportuni “This will require greater investments in infrastructure, road networks, electricity, communication andl market development. 5. Conelusion Characterising climate variability over Ethiopia's major rainy season is vital for ensuring food security, well-being of small holder farmers and contribution of agricultural GDP to national GDP. The interannual variability of rainfall is remarkably eoherent throughout Ethiopia. Large portions of variability are accounted during short- season and long-season rainfall, AS more than 80% of the total cultivated area is directly dependent on monsoon rainfall, any potenti change in seasonal rainfall critically influence erop production and the well-being of small holder farmers in the region. The study area observed no significant trends in annual, seasonal rainfall amounts and rainy’ days during last three decades over Ethiopia, However, the Mann-Kendall test shows a significantly positive trend in rainfall extreme events over large portions of Ethiopia. Changes in rainfall‘Weather and Chiat arenes 152017) 11-28 90 Percentile annual minimum temperate 90 Percentile OJF minimum temperate ‘0 Percentile MAM minimum temperate N N A A 5 Legend Legend Legend “rina ed “innate Eo a eT © ose ore a0 © 296-0880 ‘90 Percente JA minimum temperate 0 Percentile SON minimum tomperatre N A Legend Legend Tei se Fo on @ cme-omm | CHIT so Son «@ 0se8-0se ‘extremes events such a5, 90th percentile of rainfall, greatest 10d rainfall and number of days with rainfall greater than oF equal to 30 mm/day are substantially inereasing. Both the drought years has substantial impact on livelihoods over Ethiopin effecting above 508 of the total cultivated area, Drought risk reduction strategies should be developed with focus not only on reducing casualties but also on livelinoods, by reducing vulnerability to hazards and by supporting asset building before and after an extreme event has taken place (Ghepherd et al, 2013) ‘The warming trend and changes in extremes ean be expected to affect the regional incidence of weeds, insets, and have considerable impact on crop growth and development in dryland areas. Disproportionate warming at high latitudes and high elevations in winter and night time can affect crop development, bringing. re patterning of the geographical distribution of production activities, ‘and alter the ecological balance between the crops and its associated pests (Rosenzweig etal, 2001). Beraie nature of rainfall with inereas- ing surface temperatures poses new challenges to erop production in the region. Growing population, rapid changes in land-use along with increasing weather extreme events threatens crop produetion, rises food security issues and finally effets socio-eeonomie conditions of small holder farmers. Development of stntegi adaptation measures to climate variability and associated extreme weather events are the adjustment tothe system to moderate the possible potential impacts of climate variability Acknowledgements First and foremost, would like to thank Dr. Sridhar for offering me valuable advice and facilites for research work. I wish to express my sincere thanks to the School of Baeth Sciences, Collegeof Natural and Computational Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa for providing lab facilites in this research, I am also grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments, which helped me to improve this manuseriptKY: Surhiaponen References el shifra, Kin, Teste, Mena, Kasse, Ted, At, Prasanna, BM, ‘Asi, Mek, 204 nang velit nda od enhancing ton ‘eons sb Saharan Ales Tecnologia natn nd ply pions. ‘Weber aod Chiate Estee 67, ea T1987 Food sorta, sessment and pret: method of he aly ‘wn stem of Bhi ha. 17. In: Wis, DA, Eastern. 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