antans, 251 PM Xm tube CP dy vpn Gg tug: Mat hon bao ni | Zeroeage na ong enough tein he survival 0 ZeroHedge — ever derone dass ser Xem trwérc CPI ay Gu va phan ceng thi trong: Mat hon bao nhiéu & Ay, BOITYLER DURDEN THOPTU, TWANG TU 12208-0869 Mac dit né sé kh6ng c6 tac déng thi truéng nhu cdc ban in CPI gan day - vi sw chai y hign dang tap trung nhigu hon vao cuéc khiing hoang tin dung va suy thoai kinh té do hoat déng ti8n giri ngan hang khu vc, khdng Id - bao cdo CPI hém thir Tu van sé 6 tac déng manh mé d&n cdc tai sn rii ro (va, nh Goldman luu y ngay hém nay, né c6 thé khién cd phiéu cao hon hoac thap hon 2%). Béo cdo nay duge cau triic thanh ba phan doan: i) nhéing gi sw déng thuan mong dg ii) nhéng diéu quan trong can tap trung vao, va noi nhing bat ng@ cé thé An gidu, va iii) céch thi truéng cé thé phan tng. 1. Ky vong déng thugn + Lam phat tiéu 48 dy kién sé giam xudng 5,1% Y/Y tl 6,0% Y/Y trong thang 5, trong khi three do. c6t I6i dug nhin thay tang khiém tén tir 5,5% trong thang 6 lén <>,<>%. * Trén co sd tuan ty, sy déng thuan dy kién giam xudng 0,2% M/M tir 0,4% & mitre tiéu dé, trong khi CPI Idi giam xudng 0,4% tiv 0,5% Nhin rong hon, cde nha kinh t8 cla Goldman ky vong CPI Idi thang 0 sé tang 37,0% (so v6i déng thuan 4,5%), turong tng véi ty 18 60,5% so véi cling ky nm ngoi (so vi mirc déng thuan 6,0%). Ho ky vong gia nang lng th4p hon va gid lwong thc cao hon mét chit sé tang 13,0% trong CPI tiéu dé thang 2 (so voi déng thuan 5,12%), diéu nay sé lam giam ty Ié so véi cling ky nam ngoai xuéng cdn 5,1% (so véi mize déng thuan <>,<>%). Biéu dd dui day cung cp mét ban tém tat cp thanh phan vé dy bao clia ngan hang hitps sw. zerohedge.comimarketsful-ep-and-market-reaction-preview-how-muct-codler 1641273, 251 PM Xem trée CPI dy di va phan img thi tng: Mat hon bao rhiéu | ZeroHedge Q ZeroHedge —saiesznatistesse as * 2am Motor venice pate 1% com 8% Meaical care commeatties ry cay, 01% Tebacco 1% 05% 10% Rent of primary residence 3% 77% a7e% Ledging aay fem nome 1% 15% 23% Medical care services 8% 036% 970% Public transportation 1% 03% 32% Transporation services expubic 6% 9% 115, Pets 1% oom 14% Recreatien ex-pats 6% 058 09% Ecucation 36 02%, 04% ‘Gommuneaton % on 00% Hlousenoa rumisnings ana ops, 3% oom 03% Personaleare e osm, 00% ‘Alcoholic beverages 1% 03% 2.3% ‘Owners’ equivalent rent m% | 072% 070% Resiaval mpict) 3% ‘ow ee ae oo Se tl ne Bach Nhu Newsquawk luu y, trong ban phat hanh, céc nha giao dich sé chil y dén cae thanh phan tty finh vc dich vy, ma cc quan chic van coi la mét nguén gay khé chiu. Cac nha hoach dinh chinh sach cia Fed gan day da xem xét nhitng tai wong trong linh vye ngan hang va nhan manh cam Két cila ho trong viée kiém soat lam phat, v6i nhidu ngudi lwu ¥ rang vn cén nhidu viée phai lam do lam phat van dang vuot qua myc tiéu dang ké, bat ch4p nhting tién bé dat dug cho dén nay. Diéu dé néi ring, Austan Goolsbee la tiéng ndi bat déng dau tién hom nay ndi rang Fed nén thyc hién "than trong va kién nhan" trong viée tang lai sudt hon niza; Ligu nhting nguoi khdc 6 lam theo? Ngoai ra, mot sé ngudi 4a nhén manh rang céc déng thai gan day ota OPEC nham that chat thi trvdng du thé lam tang thém sy khéng che chan trong viée gidm 4p lure gid trong nhting thang t6i. Mac du dr lieu 8 giiip dinh hinh ky vong vé nhting gi Fed sé lam tai cudc hop FOMC ngay 3/<>, céc nha phan tich luu y rang van con nhiéu diém di ligu khac sé anh hung dén suy nghi cia ngan hang trung wong true 46 2. Céc myc trong tam chinh Trong ban xem truée cila béo céo CPI, nha kinh té truéng Jan Hatzius cla Goldman nhan manh ba xu huéng cp thanh phan chinh ma éng hy vong sé thay trong bao cdo thang nay. © Ther nhat, gia xe cil tng 0,5% trong thang 0, phan anh gia dau gia xe cil tng va gia xe moi tang 2,0%. Trong khi ning han ché vé nguén cung vi mach va gién doan nguén cung tir lan séng Covid cila Trung Quéc cé thé da két thiic, hyp déng thué ctla ngwoi tiéu ding hét han va doanh sé ban doi xe cho thué thap hon dy kién sé dé nang lén nguén cung 6 t6 da qua str dung trong vai thang toi. Goldman dy kién gid xe mdi sé tang viva phai hon (+2,<>%), do nhu cau tiép tuc duoc bu dap mét phan bdi sy gia tang lién tiép cdc uu dai cia daily khuyén mai. hips swww.zeroheage.comimarketsful-ep-and-market-reacton-pro how-muctreodler 21841273, 251 PM Xem trée CPI dy di va phan img thi tng: Mat hon bao rhiéu | ZeroHedge Q ZeroHedge —saiesznatistesse jd EE : 10 » + Thi? hai, gid vé may bay trong CPI dy kién sé gidm 2% phan anh sy sut gidm lién tiép ctia gid nhién ligu may bay va trong thuéc do thé’ gian thy cila nhém hang khong Goldman vé gid vé may bay vao thang Ba Exhibit Fling Energy ries Wil Likely Lower Roos ‘Conte por gation, 2m avg sndox “30 vet Fuel Price den) Afates CPI (ign) teas 320 380 \. m NA ie eS 20 | 240 170 i 20 } 200 100 190 0 . ‘ 100 ‘Jan-20 Jul20 and Juad ant? 22 ans Ss Dstt cle Gs Sah Gillet arch © Tht ba, lam phat nha & dy kién sé van & mirc cao nhwng giam téc trén co so tuan ty trong thang 0 (gid thué + 73,0%, OER + 65,3%), do su yéu kém trong tng trvdng tién thué déi vi cac hop déng thué mdi bi dap cho viéc tiép tuc bat kip cc hop ding thué tiép tuc theo gid thi trvéng. Tai day, ngan hang wéc tinh rng khoang cach gitta gid thué moi va khadch thué hién tai sé trung binh khoang 2023% trong quy 1 nam 6, glam so voi mirc dinh 2022% roi vao quy 1 nm <>. tps sw. zerohedge.comimarketstfu-cphand-market-reaction-preview-how.muctrcooler41273, 251 PM Xem trée CPI dy di va phan img thi tng: Mat hon bao rhiéu | ZeroHedge Q ZeroHedge —saiesznatistesse ‘| -ae | UUNIT var a by mF ‘ O'nhing noi khac trong bao cdo, Hatzius dy kién gia hang may mac giam khiém tén (-0,3%), phan anh hoat dong quang cao tang va doanh sé ban hang cham lai, va dy bao mite tang 0,9% trong danh muc bao hiém xe hoi, khi cdc hang van tai tiép tue bu d4p chi phi sira chtra va thay thé cao hon. Goldman ciing ky vong su sut gidm trong thanh phan bao hiém y té cila CPI cé thé sé tiép tuc dé nang lén gia dich vu cham séc y té va danh myc nay sé giam 0,2% trong thang <>. Trong tong lai, GS ky vong lam phat CPI Ii hang thang sé duy tr trong khoang 0,3-0,4% trong vai thang phan 4nh con duéng cao hon déi véi lam phat 6 t6 44 qua sir dung va lam phat tiép tuc én inh, déng thdi ngan hang cfing ky vong lam phat CPI Idi hang thang sé giam xuéng khoang 0,2% trong niva cudi nm 2023. Trong dy bao dai han, Goldman dy bdo lam phat CPI Idi so véi cling ky nam ngodi la 3,7% vao thang 2023/2 va 6,2024% vao thang 2023/<> véi sy gidm téc vao nm <> duge thc day nhiéu hon béi cdc loai hang héa hon [a dich vu, Exhibit: We Forecast oer-on-Yoor Core CP Inflation of 3.7% in Devomber 202 and 25% in Decomber zat exert Tao! ss! ot a “poe a {33 | 37 aay 7 ee Used ae er Weacaceeconmoates =| 18 | a2 | 34 mew Fatrnsanee (ei fie 2) Nese eae ocinswanse | 72 | 34 | as Giteome a2 Lae Pie {as mo | a7 a an ae Foiseworunenegs-om | 65 | oe) | 38 as 2) par imei te Eee > —_ Pic Treeptaton {40} of 8) ar as Ge Por Trnopwtaon aves | 63 | 38 | 73 ae ab a Uscsnensyeosanacevess! fee | 66 | 539233 ak Troaine cP a ‘Cx 5] 55 | aT Foes fs 1 93 | 80 for yet Sat 38 ‘See pn a io Sa ial mst each Chuyén sang JPM, ngan hang lén nhat ota My nhin chung déng y véi dy bdo cia Goldman + Theo nha kinh té truéng Michael Feroli cla JPM, CPI da tang 0,3% trong thang 5, vi téc 46 giam xuéng 2,6% tir mite 0,2021% trong thang 2 - day sé la ty Ié lam phat thap nhat trong nam trvéc tps sw. zerohedge.comimarketstful-ephand-market-reaction-preview-how.muctrcooler41273, 251 PM Xem trée CPI dy di va phan img thi tng: Mat hon bao rhiéu | ZeroHedge 0 ZeroHedge — eie"ehenedoos ze nung wary Wh, Hung uet UY LO UTE UEP Ye Yap YENI wae un uu ant ce ure van mé ngay ca khi ching gidm bét & thué tuong duong cia cha s6 hau dugc dy béo sé ‘ng 72,0% trong khi gid thué cua khach thué ting 8,<>% trong thang Ba. Ching ti cting tim kiém gid nha nghi da tang <>,<>% dya trén dif ligu nganh tién quan. + Dor figu nganh lién quan cting cho thay xu hwéng gidm gid xe 44 qua sir dung trong vai than: qua sé bj gién doan boi mic tang 1,5% trong thang 0. Mat khdc, sy’ gia tang gia xe mdi cé thé 8 cham lai khong thay di vao thang truréc khi dong yc t8n kho durgc cai thién, Gid nhién liéu may bay giam sé gép phan lam giam 7,<>% CPI gia giao théng céng céng trong thang truéc. * Trong cac thanh phan CPI khac, JPM dy bao chi phi bao hiém y té sé tiép tuc gidm va kéo chi sé gid cham séc y té réng hon xudng 0,4% trong thang Ba. Dy kién sé cé thém mét lye can nhé (-0,1%) trong khi gia hang may mac du kign sé tiép tuc da tng gid gan day va tng 0,5% trong thang trréc. C6 nhiéu bdo cdo bén ban hon & noi théng thudng o6 san cho nhiing ngudi dang ky chuyén nghiép. 3. Phan tg ciia thi trong Trong ghi cht chive nang phan tng thi trwéng CPI cia minh, John Flood cia Goldman viét rang “thi trong cht¢ng khoan muén ¢é mét ban in nhe nhang hon vi mét sé ligu néng sé lam tang thém sv nham ln va khéng chéc chn vao phwong trinh vé nhieng gi Fed lam tir day." Ngoai ra, trong khi cdc quy tuong lai cla Fed dang dinh gia 70% ty 16 curge ciia mot dot tang cudi ciing khac vao thang Nam, sau d6 ho dy kién sé ct gidm lai suat manh mé trong quy 4. Vé chtre nang phan ng clia S&P déi voi tiéu dé YoY in, day la khuén khd ma John Flood cia Goldman dang sir dung: >6%: S&P ban thao it nhdt 2 5,2% - 6%: S&P ban thdo 1 - 2% 4.6% - 5,1%: S&P tng 50 - 100bps <4,6%: S&P tang it nhat 2% Vé phia [di suat, nha giao dich ty gid JPM Jospeh Mazzurco da thyc hién mét sé phan tich vé cdc bién dng thoi gian xung quanh cac sy kién CPI ké tir dau nam 2022 (tng céng 15 ban in) va day la mot sé. phat hién cla éng (sir dung thay déi trong ngay trong ty gia hoan déi SOFR tinh bang bps dé giam thiéu bt ky tac déng ddu gia tiém nang nao déi voi Kho bac): * Trung binh, cdc d6ng thai hang ngay lon nhat vé gid tri tuyét 46i dén & diém 2y (14bps), didu nay kang o6 gl dng ngac ign Kh thi trong tp tung vao gio cign ngue ding nur thé nao khi Fed bat dau chu ky tang Idi sudt vao dau nam ngoai. * Trung binh (di chuyén réng), ai sudt bj ban thao & dau dudng cong (2s va Ss) nhung tang trong 7s on out véi vide ban réng & front end ldn hon so véi dot tang réng xa hon. ‘+ Nhip in tiéu dé MoM (dat trén sy déng thuan) 7 [an trong khi thiéu 3 [an va in ndi tuyén 5 lan. * Nhip in Idi MoM (dat trén sy dong thuan) 8 [an trong khi thiéu 4 [an va in ngi tuyén 3 lan. * Déng thai lon nhat vé thoi long dién ra vao ngay 11/10/22 (doc thang 0) khi ca tiéu dé va cét |di Bu bé 6 sy déng thuan (in bén du6i) 2,5%. Diu nay khién lai suat 33y tang ~ <>bps. + Dot ban thao lon nhat duge chung kién vao ngay 06/10/22 (doc thang 0) khi tiéu a8 danh 3,0% va 161 1,2%, khién lai sudt 24y bj ban tho <>bps hips sw. zerohedge.comlmarketsful-eptand-market-reaction-preview-how-muct-codler 5641273, 251 PM Xem trée CPI dy di va phan img thi tng: Mat hon bao rhiéu | ZeroHedge 0 ZeroHedge — eie"ehenedoos ze tidp (tir thir Hai dén thir Nam). Sau 6, NFP vao thir Sau 4a di ngurgc lai xu huéng 46, cho thay mot thi trvdng lao dong dang cham lai nhung trén quy mé dan dan hon nhigu khi U/ R gidm xuéng 3,6% (ttr 62,6%) mac dui ty Ié tham gia tang lén 62,5% (tir 03,07%). Voi mirc 46 rii ro trong thang 23 va chi sé NFP vao thir Sau, nhidu nguoi dudng nhu s4n sang giao dich tir phia ban & day, nhu cé thé Iugm lat duge tir cudc khao sat thoi gian JPM dug céng bé sang nay (phan tat ca khach hang di chuyén rong ngan lan du tién ké ter ngay 11/<>/<> trong khi phan hoat dong ngn hon <>% trén réng). Vé mat ty [é vol ctia moi thir, cde dim chinh nhw sau: Vols (va dc biét la nghiéng may thu) 44 bing né cao hon vao thang 1 & mat sau clia stop out cla quan short may thu phia trén bén trai (rat nhiéu trong s6 dé & dang thang thu ty2y / 1y<>y, khach hang ban dau dai tan cng cao hon, ngan céc cudc tn cong thap hon dé ré rang). Céc dai ly d8 budc phai bao gém cc lénh ban khéng trong mii ban cho cdc céng ty vao ném ngodi voi cdc cudc dinh céng trong khong 3-4%. Dinh hung ty 16 / vol a3 dao ln mot cach vat chat véi vols lm gidu trong mét cugec biéu tinh FM xem xét ty I6 ngurdi tra tién bat dau / bay trong 6mty va ngan hon vao cudc biéu tinh véi mot s6 FM quan tam dé ban ATMF 2yty-3y2y hoan toan. Tuan truéc, chyong trinh ban hang da tré lai sau thai gian gian doan vao thang 100 nhung & quy mé nhé hon nhidu (tong dong 150-1mm 10m200y so v6i 250-<>mm trvéc dé). Vega / dRate & phia du6i bén phai tiép tuc bi chi phéi bdi cdc dai ly nh&n durgc vol ngn hon trong mt det ban thao da cho phép nguoi tré tin nghiéng giao dich trén d6 léch cia ngudi nhan, trai nguge voi nhéng gi da dién ra trong ty hét han va trong. Cubi cing, day 1a mot sé binh lun tt ban giao dich o8 phiéu ciia JPM Cap nhat nhanh vé nhiing gi chting tdi dang théy.. © 1) That thd vj khi thay sy gia tang l6n vé nhu cau ban [é nhiéu / gid tri khi CPI durgc in vao ngay m: hap tree ‘Su két hop gidra nhu cau LO va HF (va chil yéu la mua yao). Khéng chac chan chat xtic tac ngay hém nay, ngoai kha nang vurgt troi néu ching ta thdy CPI ha nhiét vao ngay mai. Ngoai ra, chting toi dé nhan thay sy quan tam tng lén khi hau hét cdc nha ban [8 thoat khéi mot thang Ba khé khan voi anh sng ban ngay tiém nang phia truéc (Mia xuan theo mia va vugt qua Hoan thué va gié nguoc SNAP dé cé kha nang phuc héi xu huéng dé liu). + 2) Biéu dé néi rang, Consumer Staples van [a finh vc mua l6n nhét trong phong (va Céng nghiép ban ln nhat) cho thay té hop JPM thyc sy dang thay nhiéu vj tri phang thi hon. Thém trong ther muc xem truéc CPI 66 sdn cho ngusi dang ky chuyén nghiép & noi théng thuréng. THONG BAO PHAN BIET DOI XU" CHINH SACH BAO MAT TIET LO QUANG CAO VO! ZEROHEDGE BAN QUYEN ©2009-2023 ZEROHEDGE.COM/ABC MEDIA, LTD. hips sw. zerohedge.comlmarketsful-eptand-market-reaction-preview-how-muct-codler 86