Strategic Analysis and Forecasting the Nickel Price using Deep Learning Dr: Harry Patria (Chief Data Strategist at Patria & Co.) \ | i yh iM | / if Mle aa ea linge er a Transitioning to Clean =) = <\ Energy System : Fe ai A O> eovemnance Energy-Related ey, “77 Energy Finance and geen sop ang, Emission Reduction ° M4 investment tre Tt \ neater orem Energy and Water C (Future ot Power» a) C) ‘Systems eee 1 7 a) eeomie % 4 Pee) pi Som = aration (-) 75 towoypecon 5 ERS : : a es re of Cony Demand’). (_) Boa ecology and _/ Innovation en, oe ae as Ss 7 oe unis ale fare Allie m / fay (ji \S © World Economic Forumree es 7 BA au ue ot ae es ay See eee a eu Re el ee eu Od Neto ete a ere Cul ere tc) NIU PECSO roffte me Bs oe ad 5 GESITS YIAR O PoLYGon Y SEL.Resilience Framework For assessing supply chain resilience, a framework by Sprecher et al. (2015) was used. As stated in the introduction, resilience refers to the capacity of a supply chain to meet the demand for a certain material, A system with high resilience undergoes minimal disturbance or is able to recover from large changes in demand or potential supply disruptions in a reasonable time frame. Sprecher et al, (2015) describe different types of disturbances, distinguishing between supply disturbances and demand disturbances that can be either slow or fast. They also discuss three important aspects of resilience; resistance, rapidity and flexibility, {as well as mechanisms that can increase resilience ‘Types of system disturbances ‘Strength against disturbances Mechanisms that cn Supply Roeistanco: determines how well a Ore depletion system remains functional Diversity of supply ‘under disturbance Rapiaiy: determines how quickly a Stockpaing system can recover from disturbance Protective measures | | | (Geo)poltical issues Siow Fast Feedback loops through the price Abily to switch sub system ‘mechanism Pandemic andor Flexibility: ‘Material substtution the abilty of the system to land changing product change while maintaining properties functionality COtner societal and | | | Disruptive demand change tecnnological trends Demand How may the global nickel supply chain and its externalities develop between 2020 and 2060 under different disruption scenarios, sustainability policies and key uncertainties? What is the range of passible nickel demand between 2015 and 2060 hased on various energy system scenarios for electricity generation, road transport and electricity storage? # How resiliont Is the nickel system to changes In demand due to the ET and substitution and changes in supply due to resource depletion and disruptions in dominant supplying countries? * What are the impacts of end of life (EoL) waste management strategies and policies to reduce forward supply chain losses and increase EV battery lifetime? * What are other key uncertainties influencing the development and resilience of the nickel system? * How do the results compare to historic developments and other model results Required libraries were succesfully imported...Dred Cots ra) Cir Low rnc 07/07/2008 20785.0 20785.0 20785.0 20785.0 0.02 08/07/2008 20460.0 20460.0 20460.0, 20460.0 -0.02 09/07/2008 21309.0 21309.0, 21309.0 21309.0 0.04 10/07/2008 21760.0 21760.0 21760.0 21760.0 0.02 11/07/2008 21455.0, 21455.0 21455.0 21455.0 -0.01 14/07/2008 20593.0, 20593.0, 20593.0 20593.0 -0.04 17/07/2008 20683.0 20683.0 20683.0 20683.0 ° 18/07/2008 20308.0 20308.0 20308.0, 20308.0 -0.02 21/07/2008 20453.0 20453.0 20453.0 20453.0, 0.01 22/07/2008 20403.0 20403.0, 20403.0, 20403.0 0 < » count mean std min 25% 50% Price | 3537.000000 | 15934.133093 | 5024.934187 | 7590.000000 | 12244.000000 | 15274.000000 Open | 3537000000 | 15931.328456 | 5025.633651 | 7655.000000 | 12227.500000 | 15265.500000 High | 3537.000000 | 16042.654863 | 4986.116320 | 7820.000000 } 12375.000000 | 15460.000000 Low | 3537.000000 | 15819.380633 | 5047.898354 | 7550.000000 | 12102.000000 | 15106.000000 4 » RangeIndex: 3537 entries, @ to 3536 bata columns (total 6 columns) Column Non-Null Count Dtype # dtypes: floate4(4), object(2) Date 3537 non-null Price 3537 non-null Open 3537 non-null High 3537 non-null Low 3537 non-null Change 3537 non-null memory usage: 165.9+ KB Column names were succesfully changed. Floated floates object2.5M 2m 15M sum of open 1M o.sM 10k 20k ‘30k 40k 50k Converting to array price The number of rows to train the model on Training data length: 336 Normalizationarray([[@.36915396], [@.30153933] (0. 32143108] [0.41693025] [0.41044024) [0.436439] }) Creating training dataset array([@.30915396, 0.20153933, @.32143108, 0.32199784, 0.32485181, 30465547, 28743469, 25971744, 23713128, 27916803, 31055973, .27330662, -26245871, 24380244, 22187859, 19153722, [0.12687144162507905, 30676413, 25988145, 25022844, 26203697, a ) ) a 26948073, a. a a a a @ 29087885, 27639933, 25423491, 2211921 5 21883274, 17630796, 8. 8. 29797802, .25229025, - 24886952, 24601111, 25960029, ).27963262, .2541176, .21679836, .21660692, 17279351, 29797802, 6. 25220025, 8. 24RR6952, 2. 2aco1111, 4. 25960028, 2. 31a2sai4, 0. 27963262, 4. 25811776, 2. 21679436, 2. o o -21660692, 17279351, 30137532, 25971744, 24219208, .24226236, .244a6cas, 27098023, 25386003, 22914177, 20231485, 0.30465547, 0.30676413, 0.20743469, 0.259AR145, 0.25971744, 0.25022844, 0.23713128, 0.26203697, 0.27916403, @.2644073, 0.31055973, @.29087885, 0.27330662, 0.27639933, 0.26245871, 0.25423491, 0.24390244, 0.211921 , @.22187859, 0.21883274, 0.19153722, 0.17630796, eg, 0.23199784, @.32485181, 0.30465547, 0.30676413, ©.29797802, a.25988145, 0.25229025, 0.250244, 0.24986952, 0.26203697, @.24601111, @.26944073, 0.259002, 0.290R7A85, 0.31325814, 0.27639933, 0.27963262, 0.25423491, @.25411776, 9.211921, @.21679436, 0.21883274, @.21660092, @.17630796, 0.17279351, o a a a a 30153933, 0. a a a a O) 15287833, [.12687144162507905, 0.13155736744687332) Convert x train and y_train to array Reshaping the data The shape of x train set: (2300, 60, 1) 38137532, @.30020384, 25971744, 0.2430824 , 24219208, 0.23246878, 24226236, @.24530822, ) a a a 24406645, @.32578809, 31325414, 0. a a a a a 30153933, @.29533047, 27894023, 0.25667159, 25386003, @.27131511, 22918177, 0.220426 , 20231485, @.18987711, 15287833, @.15098253])] ‘ay([@-30815396, @.30153933, 0.32143108, 0.33199784, 0.32485181, 38137532, .30020384, 25971744, .2430824 , 24219208, 0.23246878, 24226236, 0.245382, 24406685, 0.32578899, 39153933, @.29533047, 27094023, @.25667159, 2536003, @.27131511, 22918177, 0.222026 , 20231485, 0.18907711, 15207093, 01150900534), array(fo.20153999, 0.921602 39020384, 0.28743469, 2430824 , 0.25971744, 23246878, .23713128, 24530822, @.27916403, 32578899, @.31055973, 29533047, 0.27330662, 25667159, @.26245871, 27131511, @.24390244, 2220826 , 0.22187859, 19907711, @.19153722, 15098053, @.12687144])] LONG SHORT-TERM MEMORY (LSTM) Model3174/3300 3176/3300 3178/3308 3180/3300 3183/3300 3185/3300 3187/3300 3189/3300 3191/3300 3193/3300 3195/3300 3197/3308 3199/3308 3201/3300 3204/3300 3207/3308 3210/3308 3213/3308 3216/3308 3219/3300 3222/3300 3224/3308 3227/3308 3229/3308 3231/3300 3233/3300 3236/3300 3238/3300 3241/3300 ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: 3s Bs 3s Bs 2s 2s 2s 2s 2s 2s 2s 2s 2s 2s 2s 2s 2s 2s 2s 2s 1s as ts ts 1s 1s as 1s 1s loss: loss: loss: loss. loss: loss: loss. loss. loss. loss: loss: loss. loss. loss: loss: loss. loss. loss. loss: loss: loss: loss. loss: loss: loss: loss: loss. loss: loss: 2,3201¢-04 2.319de-04 2.3184e-04 2.31700-04 2.3166e-04 2.3153e-04 2.3138e-04 2.31310-04 2.3131e-04 2.3116e-04 2,3106e-04 2.3097¢-04 2.3092e-04 2.3093¢-04 2.3087¢-04 2.3073e-04 2.3058e-04 2.3039e-04 2.30300-04 2.30100-04 2.2990e-04 2.2978e-04 2.2963¢-04 2.29810-04 2.2937¢-04 2.2928e-04 2.29100-04 2.2897-04 2.28840-043243/3300 3245/3300 3247/3308 3249/3308 3251/3300 3253/3300 3255/3300 3257/3308 3259/3300 3261/3300 3263/3300 3265/3308 3267/3308 3269/3300 3271/3300 3273/3308 3275/3308 3277/3308 3279/3300 3281/3300 3283/3300 3285/3300 3287/3300 3289/3308 3292/3308 3294/3300 3297/3300 3300/3300 3300/3300 ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: ETA: 1s as 1s as ts as as as as es es es es es es es es es es es os. es es es es es es os. loss: loss: loss: loss. loss: loss: loss: loss. loss. loss: loss: loss. loss. loss: loss: loss. loss. loss: loss: loss: loss: loss: loss: loss. loss. loss: loss: loss: 84s 25ms/step - 2.2876e-04 2.2865e-04 2.2858e-04 2.28510-04 2.28390-04 2.2837¢-04 2.2823e-04 2.2813¢-04 2.2805e-04 2.2793¢-04 2.2783¢-04 2.27700-04 2.2766e-04 2.27620-04 2.2759¢-04 2.2787¢-04 2.27a1e-04 2.27300-04 2.2731¢-04 2.27330-04 2.27240-04 2.27100-04 2.27020-04 2.2689¢-24 2.2678e-04 2.2674e-04 2.26600-04 2.2643¢-04 loss: 2,2643¢-04Create testing dataset Convert test data to array and reshape it Get predicted prices array({[56540.1. ], [51035.35 ], [46277.016], [46915.387], [41993.895], [38694.883], [3375.08 ], [28825.887], [26407-842], [32358.953]], dtypesfloat32) Get root mean squared error (RMSE) Results by manual calculation MAE: 777.5199395303672 RMSE: 1165,5606158857324 Plot the data Close Price USD ho i PPP MM PPMP PO GPO AGM MMR PMN gig PQ GM GRP GP Show the valid and predicted prices Date39.43,064453 27532.000000 30210.359375 Peele Melee terse Oe Led 25385.000000 24325.958984 25108.000000 Plrrleneelelelee) Conclusion 1.LSTM provided a robust model to forecast the Nickel price, resulting in relatively lower MSE 2. The model forecasting shows the constant increasing price in the future with respect to sort of plausible changes atria & co. pata aff Stateay &@oesion —_B innovation