Journal of Hydrology 615 (2022) 128566

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Journal of Hydrology
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol

Application of geostatistical methods to groundwater salinization problems:

A review
Constantinos F. Panagiotou a, b, Phaedon Kyriakidis a, *, Evangelos Tziritis c
a
Department of Civil Engineering & Geomatics, Cyprus University of Technology, 3036 Limassol, Cyprus
b
Department of Environment and Climate, Eratosthenes Centre of Excellence, Fragklinou Rousbelt 82, 3012 Limassol, Cyprus
c
Hellenic Agricultural Organization, Soil and Water Resources Institute, 57400 Sindos, Greece

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

This manuscript was handled by Corrado Cor­ Groundwater salinization is considered to be one of the most severe and complex phenomena affecting coastal
radini, Editor-in-Chief, with the assistance of regions worldwide, occurring when high concentrations of water-soluble salts are present in groundwater sys­
Philip Brunner, Associate Editor tems. Geostatistics is a branch of statistics used to analyze and predict the spatio-temporal variability of such
complex phenomena. In particular, numerous geostatistical approaches and technologies are currently used to
Keywords:
identify and map salinity-affected regions, investigate how salinity indicators influence groundwater mecha­
Geostatistical simulations
nisms, and eventually design optimal groundwater management policies. This article reviews recent key appli­
Kriging
Multivariate statistics cations of geostatistical methods to address challenges relevant to groundwater salinization. The basic principles
Groundwater salinization of geostatistics are briefly described, and numerous studies are discussed that employ geostatistical and multi­
Surrogate models variate tools for identifying the origin of salinity sources, clarifying the relationship among salinity indicators
and groundwater processes, and propagating the uncertainty of the inputs to the outputs of either physically-
based or surrogate models of relevant geological systems. Finally, several recommendations and future di­
rections are identified with regards to the most popular methods and with regards to key geostatistical methods
whose application in this thematic area is still very limited.

evaporite dissolution, etc).

1. Introduction
Groundwater resources of coastal regions are either the primary
sources of freshwater or are vitally needed to supplement surface water
sources. As a result, there is a need to secure the availability and quality
of groundwater reserves in these areas. In particular, the Mediterranean
and Middle East (MME) regions are among the world’s most vulnerable
territories to water scarcity and quality degradation due to rapid
changes imposed by non-climatic and climatic drivers. Salinization, in
particular, limits or threatens the availability of groundwater resources
in the most populated and productive coastal areas of the MME (Mas­
trocicco and Colombani, 2021). As a phenomenon, aquifer salinization is
a complex and dynamic process often related to multiple causes, such as
lack of internal drainage, seawater intrusion (Bear et al., 1999; Werner
et al., 2013), natural occurrence in closed surface-water basins (Hardie
and Eugster, 1970; Eugster and Hardie, 1978), high water levels that
cause increased evaporation via capillary rise (Barrett-Lennard, 2003;
Chaudhuri and Ale, 2014), soil salinization associated with water irri­
gation (Hanson et al., 1999; Hillel, 2000) and geogenic factors (e.g.
Due to the complexity of spatial and temporal salinization patterns,
large and high-dimensional datasets are required to fully characterize
the salinity status of subsurface systems.
Consequently, a reliable assessment of salinity risks depends heavily
on the ability of statistical tools to accurately capture the spatial vari­
ability and the interrelation among salinity indicators, such as chloride,
electric conductivity and sodium content. Estimations of these in­
dicators at unsampled locations are obtained from observed data at
sample locations through interpolation methods.
Geostatistics is a branch of spatial statistics that describes the spatial
pattern and provides estimates of the attribute values at unsampled lo­
cations. It provides a comprehensive framework for combining different
types of datasets to build local models of spatial uncertainty. Numerous
studies exist that report the application of different geostatistical tech­
niques to groundwater pollution problems. Kriging is a popular method
that has been successfully used for mapping the spatio-temporal patterns
of groundwater salinity parameters (Adhikary et al., 2010; Yimit et al.,
2011; Deepika et al., 2020). Multivariate extensions of kriging can also
be used to perform spatial interpolation of multiple attributes by

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: co.panayiotou@cut.ac.cy (C.F. Panagiotou), phaedon.kyriakidis@cut.ac.cy (P. Kyriakidis), e.tziritis@swri.gr (E. Tziritis).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128566
Received 20 October 2021; Received in revised form 1 October 2022; Accepted 8 October 2022
Available online 29 October 2022
0022-1694/© 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C.F. Panagiotou et al. Journal of Hydrology 615 (2022) 128566

Nomenclature LHS Latin hypercube sampling

MARS Multivariate adaptive regression spline
ANFIS Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system MC Monte-Carlo
CA Cluster analysis MCMC Markov chain Monte-Carlo
DA Discriminant analysis MDS Multi-dimensional scaling
EC Electric conductivity MME Mediterranean and Middle East
EnKF Ensemble Kalman filter MPS Multi-point statistics
FA Factorial analysis OK Ordinary kriging
FK Factorial kriging PCA Principal component analysis
GAN Generative adversarial network RT Regression tree
GPR Gaussian process regression SIS Sequential indicator simulation
GS Geostatistical simulation SGS Sequential Gaussian simulation
GWQI Groundwater quality index SWI Sea water intrusion
IDW Inverse distance weighted TDS Total dissolved solids
IK Indicator kriging TGF Transient Groundwater Flow
JK Jackknife kriging TP Transition probability
KED Kriging with external drift UK Universal kriging

incorporating information of one or more secondary variables for
reducing the prediction error variance of the primary variable (Ahmadi
and Sedghamiz, 2006; Dokou et al., 2015). It has been shown that the
inclusion of additional information can improve the estimation accuracy
if the primary variable is cross-correlated with the secondary attributes
(Issaks and Srivastava, 1989).
A key limitation of kriging methods is that they often provide smooth
interpolated attribute maps, particularly in the presence of sparse data,
which might not fully capture the variability of the attribute of interest.
A remedy is to conduct geostatistical simulation to generate multiple
realizations of the attribute of interest reproducing short-scale attribute
variability. These alternative realizations of the spatial distribution of
attribute values are typically used to propagate parameter uncertainty in
physically-based models (Lee et al., 2007; Blouin et al., 2012). A large
number of model runs that depends on the complexity of the physical
model itself are often required to achieve sufficient accuracy in the
distribution of model outputs, leading to computationally expensive
Monte Carlo uncertainty assessments. Furthermore, these computations
involve the solution of different physically-based models that aim to: (a)
identify various sources and processes of salinization, (b) capture the
dynamics and characterize the state of groundwater systems, and (c)
assess future risks in terms of future climate and socio-economic changes
(Dunlop et al., 2019; Filippis et al., 2016; Mastrocicco et al., 2019).
These models require the determination of various parameters, such as
specific yield, storage, hydraulic conductivity, sink and source terms,
along with boundary and initial conditions. One way to mitigate the
computational burden is to replace complex physical models with
simpler models that mimic the behaviour of the former. Machine
learning tools, particularly Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), have
been successfully used to facilitate uncertainty analysis in groundwater
salinization problems (Razavi et al., 2012; Lal and Datta, 2018).
The purpose of the current study is to provide an overview of recent
(>2005) studies that employ geostatistical techniques in groundwater
salinization problems. Particularly, the current overview focuses on
studies that use geostatistics: (a) along with multivariate techniques to
identify and analyze the dominant mechanisms influencing ground­
water salinity and estimate the spatial variability of major salinity in­
dicators, (b) for integrating salinity attributes towards the objective of
spatial interpolation, (c) for quantifying spatial uncertainty by gener­
ating multiple realizations of salinization-related parameters, and (d) for
constructing surrogate models that emulate physically-based models in
order to reduce model complexity and computational burden.
Fig. 1 shows a graphical overview of this review study in terms of the
major thematic areas of geostatistics, which involve the analysis and
modeling of spatial association, the integration of data of different
sources and resolutions towards the objective of spatial interpolation
and the assessment of uncertainty in spatial prediction and its propa­
gation to outputs/results of spatial operations or of models with spatially
distributed inputs and/or parameters (Kyriakidis, 2017). Note that these
studies are further classified based on the dimensionality of the sample
dataset.
Relevant publications were selected through search engines and
online databases using keywords associated with the thematic areas.
Fig. 2 provides a classification of these keywords in terms of their oc­
currences in the context of groundwater salinization. Bibliographical
data (e.g. authors, publication year, title, etc) is used to cluster the
selected keywords. The size of each bubble denotes the total number of
occurrences, whereas the thickness of a line connecting a pair of

Fig. 1. Application of the three thematic areas of geostatistics (centre) to address groundwater salinization problems involving univariate (left) and multivariate
(right) datasets. Co-simulations, i.e., the joint simulation of multiple attributes, (yellow text) are not considered in this review.

2
C.F. Panagiotou et al.
Fig. 2. Clustering of the modelling tools that are used to address groundwater salinization problems in this review study. Only tools that are used at least twice
are shown.
keywords denotes the number of common occurrences. For example, it is
observed that several transient groundwater flow models (TGF), such as
MODFLOW, SUTRA, FEFLOW, SEAWAT, are used in conjuction with
different Monte Carlo simulation methods, such as Sequential Indicator
Simulation (SIS), Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS), Markov Chain
Monte Carlo (MCMC), Transition Probabilities (TP) and Latin Hyper­
cube Sampling (LHS), to conduct uncertainty analysis. The findings of
Fig. 2 are used in Section 4 to identify the most widely used methods and
propose future directions.
Based on the results of this review, several advanced geostatistical
techniques that have not been favoured yet by practitioners for these
problems have been identified, which could potentially lead to
improved estimations. In addition, key challenges and future directions
are addressed.
2. General principles of geostatistics
As shown in Fig. 1, geostatistics can be classified into three thematic
areas (Kyriakidis, 2017): (a) analysis and modelling of spatial associa­
tion, (b) spatial interpolation of attribute (parameter) data, with or
without the incorporation of data on relevant (auxiliary or predictor)
attributes, and (c) quantification of the uncertainty in the spatial dis­
tribution of estimated attribute values (spatial uncertainty) and its
impact on model predictions (uncertainty propagation).
2.1. Spatial association
Spatial association refers to the similarity or dissimilarity between
values of attributes/parameters measured at different spatial locations.
Within the framework of geostatistics, attribute spatial variability can be
quantified through the sample or empirical semivariogram. In the case
of two variables, this quantity can be extended to the bivariate case,
termed “sample cross-variogram” (Issaks and Srivastava, 1989). Jointly
permissible models of spatial association are needed in the case of two or
more variables, such as the intrinsic co-regionalization model and the
linear model of co-regionalization (Chilès and Delfiner, 2012). In the
case of categorical data, indicator variograms have been used for
quantifying the spatial association of each category (Chilès and Delfiner,
2012).
Semivariograms are often computed from a limited sample data set
and represent averages of pairwise attribute (dis)similarity values at
discrete distance classes. In order to obtain a continuous spatial
description of this quantity as a function of distance, suitable semi­
variogram model expressions are considered that are required to provide
non-negative variance of estimators (Fig. 1), thus called positive definite
functions. Expressions that satisfy this requirement and are widely used
in applications relevant to groundwater salinization are the exponential,
Gaussian and spherical functions; such models reach a plateau (sill), i.e.,
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Journal of Hydrology 615 (2022) 128566
they correspond to random functions/fields with a finite variance. Other
variogram models without a sill, such as the linear and power-law
models, are also widely used in hydrology, and correspond to intrinsic
random functions/fields (Chilès and Delfiner, 2012).
Variogram models play an essential role in modelling the spatial
continuity of attribute values (Chilès and Delfiner, 2012; Goovaerts,
1997) and comprise key elements of geostatistical spatial interpolation
methods used to construct maps of the spatial distribution of hydro­
geological or other parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity, electric
conductivity, total dissolved solids, nitrates etc.
2.2. Spatial interpolation
Up to date, several spatial interpolation methods have been devel­
oped (Issaks and Srivastava, 1989), which can be classified into two
main categories: deterministic and stochastic. Deterministic methods
are used for predicting a unique attribute value at each location where a
sample is not available. Examples are nearest neighbor interpolation,
bilinear interpolation, triangulated irregular network interpolation, in­
verse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation, and spline interpolation.
Regarding stochastic interpolation techniques, special attention is
given to the kriging method (Fig. 1), which qualifies as the best linear
unbiased predictor (BLUP). Kriging, also known as Gaussian process
regression in machine learning (Cui et al., 2021), provides an optimal
prediction of an attribute at a target location by minimizing the pre­
diction error variance, assuming that a variogram or covariogram model
is available. Different variants of kriging have been developed,
depending on the assumptions adopted regarding the expected attribute
value (average) at different locations. The simplest variant, named
simple kriging, occurs when the expected attribute value is assumed to
be known everywhere. However, this assumption limits the applicability
of this kriging variant due to the difficulty of acquiring this information.
Ordinary kriging (OK) within local neighborhoods centered at predic­
tion locations is the most popular kriging method used in groundwater
salinization problems (Arslan, 2012; Karami et al., 2018; Hu et al., 2005)
and assumes a constant but unknown expected attribute value within
each search neighborhood, different from one neighborhood to another.
Universal Kriging (UK) assumes a linear functional link between the
attribute’s expected value and the spatial coordinates (or polynomials
thereof) within the search neighborhood, similar to trend surface anal­
ysis. The theory of intrinsic random functions of order k (IRF-k) gener­
alizes UK to random functions with stationary increments (spatial
differences) of order k capitalizing on the notion of generalized co­
variances of that order; more details can be found in several works
(Chilès and Delfiner, 2012; Matheron, 1970; Matheron, 1971; Kitanidis,
1997). In the case where the local attribute of interest is connected to
other relevant or auxiliary attributes through a linear regression model,
the corresponding kriging variant is termed “Kriging with External
C.F. Panagiotou et al.
Drift” (KED). (Goovaerts, 1997; Deutsch and Journel, 1992; Wack­
ernagel, 2003; Rivest et al., 2008). The Kriging (normal) equations
provide a general framework to incorporate into spatial prediction data
that are linearly linked to the attribute of interest, such as data defined
as arithmetic averages of point attribute values over a block, or as dif­
ferences of attribute values at nearby locations defined via, for example,
the Laplacian operator. A classical, gradient-based, linear link between
attributes in hydrogeology is the Poisson-type partial differential equa­
tion linking transmissivity to piezometric head; see Dong (Dong, 1989).
In the local regression approach for spatial interpolation furnished
by KED, the data of the auxiliary variables should be collocated with
those of the attribute of interest at the sample locations (for estimating
the parameters of the regression model) and at the prediction locations
(for predicting the corresponding target values). However, such an iso­
topic or equally sampled design is often not realized in practice; in this
case, data on multiple attributes can alternatively be integrated into
spatial interpolation via co-kriging (Triki et al., 2013; Ashrafzadeh et al.,
2016). In this case, spatial interpolation is typically performed via co-
kriging (and its variants) and calls for the availability of a jointly
permissible model for all auto- and cross-variograms defined between
variables.
Depending on the characteristics of the sample data, additional
kriging variants can be considered. For example, factorial kriging (FK) is
used when the measurement errors of the sample data need to be
considered. In the presence of non-Gaussian datasets, several extensions
of kriging can be used, such as lognormal kriging, indicator kriging (IK),
disjunctive kriging (Kuisi et al., 2009; Yazdanpanah, 2016; Tabandeh
et al., 2021) and copula-based kriging (Agarwal et al., 2021; Li et al.,
2021).
Classical kriging under a multivariate Gaussian assumption for the
attribute random field furnishes the conditional mean (expectation) and
variance of the unknown attribute value at a prediction location given
(conditional upon) the nearby sample data; these two parameters define
a local (at a prediction location) Gaussian conditional distribution. In­
dicator Kriging furnishes an approximation of that local conditional
distribution by estimating its K (local) quantiles, using binary (0/1)
indicators constructed from the sample data; that is, data values are
transformed to K indicators of non-exceedance of K attribute threshold
values, corresponding, for example, to K deciles of the sample data
distribution. Disjunctive kriging furnishes a more consistent estimator of
the conditional expectation and variance, hence of the local conditional
distribution, as it amounts to co-kriging of multiple indicators. Capi­
talizing on the notion of orthogonal polynomials for modelling the
bivariate (two-point) distribution of attribute pairs for different lag
distances, disjunctive kriging expresses the local conditional expectation
as a function of coefficients of those orthogonal polynomials after
Gaussian anamorphosis (transformation to a standard Gaussian distri­
bution). Once the local conditional distribution is approximated via
disjunctive kriging, the probability of exceeding or not a particular
attribute threshold can be readily computed; for more details on indi­
cator kriging, disjunctive kriging, including their advantages and dis­
advantages, see Matheron (Matheron, 1976; Chilès and Delfiner, 2012;
Yates et al., 1986).
Kriging-based geostatistical simulations rely on variograms, thus are
not able to reproduce complex patterns. Clearly, considering only two
points is not sufficient for reproducing complex and heterogeneous
models. Collecting information from multiple sources leads to large
datasets, which are not usually available in the earth science problems as
they come with sparse and incomplete data. Such data, instead, can be
browsed in the form a conceptual image, called training image. Hence,
the fundamental novelty of the Multiple-Point Statistics (MPS) frame­
work is to encapsulate in a training image the interpretative knowledge
on the spatial structure of the modeled phenomenon (Mariethoz and
Caers, 2014), which can be difficult as natural images are typically not
sufficiently repetitive or stationary.
Copulas-based geostatistical interpolations (Bárdossy and Li, 2008)
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Journal of Hydrology 615 (2022) 128566
are based on similar concepts with isofactorial models of bivariate dis­
tributions popularized within the geostatistical literature (Matheron,
1984) and can be also used to model bivariate or multivariate distri­
butions without imposing a multivariate Gaussian assumption. Partic­
ularly, copulas are standardized multivariate distributions with uniform
marginals which can be used to describe the dependence structure of
multivariate distributions separately from their univariate marginals.
Hence, bivariate empirical copulas can be used as an alternative to
variograms and covariance functions for the characterization of spatial
variability.
2.3. Uncertainty propagation
Knowledge of a series of local uncertainty models, specified for
example by the local kriging-derived mean and variance, are not always
sufficient information for uncertainty propagation purposes, particu­
larly in the case of non-Gaussian distribution and/or non-linear models.
The appropriate solution for these cases is to use geostatistical Monte
Carlo simulation (Goovaerts, 1997), a statistical technique that aims at
“mimicking” the process of sampling an actual phenomenon. Uncer­
tainty propagation in this context is performed by first producing mul­
tiple realizations of the spatial distribution of the attribute under study
via geostatistical simulation and subsequently evaluating a physical
model using as alternative inputs/parameters those realizations to pro­
duce multiple realizations model predictions (Fig. 1). An illustrative
example is the generation of alternative models of the three-dimensional
spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity, used as input data to
groundwater flow equations. These alternative realizations and the flow
equations are combined within a Monte Carlo framework to evaluate the
uncertainty in the spatial distribution of hydraulic head.
In practice, many Monte Carlo simulations are required to provide
accurate predictive distributions, making this method computationally
expensive. As mentioned in the introductory section, a common
approach is to construct simplified approximations of the complex
modelling expressions, known as surrogate models, used instead within
the MC framework. In addition to achieving computational efficiency,
surrogate models are known for improving the numerical stability of the
algorithms, facilitating uncertainty analysis (Doherty and Christensen,
2011).
3. Applications of geostatistics in groundwater salinization
An overview of studies that employ geostatistical techniques to
groundwater salinization problems is hereafter presented, from which
gaps and future directions are identified and discussed in Section 4.
Relevant review papers in the field of groundwater modeling, quality
assessment and monitoring already exist in the literature. For example,
to achieve improved predictions regarding subsurface processes, Linde
et al. (Linde et al., 2015) performed an overview of different geo­
statistical approaches combined to provide prior geological knowledge.
The authors emphasized the significance of reducing the dimensionality
of the data, allowing a better representation of geological heterogene­
ities and improved predictions of the aquifer states. Also, Priyanka and
Kumar (Priyanka and Kumar, 2017) provided a general perspective of
how geostatistical models are used to model seawater intrusion (SWI)
processes. The primary limitations and novelties of existing methodol­
ogies were discussed, along with the need for further understanding of
the complex structure of coastal aquifers.
Geostatistical tools emerge as effective approaches for generating
alternative realistic 2D or 3D numerical representations (realizations) of
the spatial distribution of key hydrogeological and/or hydro­
geochemical parameters for simulating flow and transport processes in
various case studies. For example, Carrera et al. (Carrera et al., 2009)
reviewed how geostatistical techniques are applied to assess salinization
occurring due to seawater intrusion. In particular, the authors discussed
computational and conceptual traits when used to model seawater
C.F. Panagiotou et al.
intrusion, concluding that there is plenty of room for improvement in
terms of computational performance, for example, through the use of
code parallelization to solve inverse problems and use of state variables
from previous calibration iterations as initial guesses for non-linear
direct problems. Mastrocicco and Colombani (Mastrocicco and Colom­
bani, 2021) conducted an extensive overview of groundwater salinisa­
tion’s major processes, focusing on the Mediterranean region. The
authors discussed various state-of-the-art techniques, including geo­
statistics, used to address salinization problems, and suggested that
combining these approaches can potentially lead to optimal manage­
ment strategies.
A key parameter, but not the only, in designing management stra­
tegies is how well the geological model is reflected in the uncertainty of
the predictions. A popular way to generate an ensemble of realizations
for the aquifer states that reflect the geological pattern is by performing
Monte-Carlo simulations within the context of geostatistical simula­
tions. However, this approach is computationally inefficient since it
requires the iterative evaluation of forward model computations for a
large number of realizations of the geological parameter (e.g. hydraulic
conductivity). Different approaches have been proposed to reduce such
a computational cost. For example, through the selection of a subset of
representative realizations from a large ensemble (Scheidt and Caers,
2008; Ginsbourger et al., 2013); building geological model at a lower
resolution than the scale of the dataset (upscaling; Li et al., 2012;
Myrseth et al., 2013); and by constructing simplified approximations of
the complex models to decrease the number of unknowns that must be
computed (He et al., 2013; Pau et al., 2013), known as surrogate models.
A recent survey by Roy and Datta (Roy and Datta, 2018) has sum­
marized a wide range of surrogate models developed to approximate
physical models and reduce computational complexity. These models
are used to quantify the spatial uncertainty of the predictions, contrib­
uting to the revision of seawater intrusion management strategies.
Gómez-Hernandez et al. (Gómez-Hernández et al., 2021) collected a
number of studies that emphasize the significance of modelling uncer­
tainty in groundwater processes using stochastic techniques. These
studies emphasized the importance of using computationally efficient
methods in complex groundwater systems, such as the Edward aquifer
(White et al., 2020) and the Savanah River (Carle and Fogg, 2020).
No review manuscript has been published specifically on the appli­
cation of geostatistical techniques in groundwater salinization. These
techniques, along with dimensionality-reduction techniques, are
employed to: (a) identify the origins and sources of groundwater sali­
nization, (b) relate geochemical parameters with contamination and/or
enrichment processes (i.e. seawater intrusion, water–rock interactions)
and eventually construct maps to identify regions of high salinization
risk, (c) evaluate spatial uncertainty by generating multiple earth
models, and (d) assess the ability of geostatistical methods to replace
physically-based models in terms of estimation accuracy and computa­
tional demand. For completeness, this review study includes represen­
tative studies that consider closely related techniques to geostatistical
methods, even if the term “geostatistics” might not be explicitly used in
the original paper.
3.1. Multivariate statistical techniques
There are a plethora of studies that employ multivariate techniques
alone to groundwater salinization problems. Here, a small subset of
these applications is considered since this is not the focus of this review
article. For example, Kumar et al. (Kumar et al., 2006; Kumar et al.,
2009) conducted cluster and factor analyses to assess the interaction
between surface water and an alluvial aquifer in Delhi, India. Applica­
tion of hierarchical cluster analysis revealed the strong influence of re­
gions of contaminated surface waters to specific groups of sampling
locations. Then, factor analysis was used to identify the most important
quality parameters associated with hydro-geochemical mechanisms,
reducing the number of parameters. Similar to Kumar et al., Acikel and
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Journal of Hydrology 615 (2022) 128566
Ekmekci (Acikel and Ekmekci, 2018) combined factor and cluster
analysis to conduct a groundwater quality assessment of a karstified
aquifer located in the south-western part of Turkey. Their results
revealed the complexity that drives the recharge and salinization pro­
cesses in the study area. El Yaouti et al. (Yaouti et al., 2009) combined
cluster and principal component analyses to characterize the spatial
variability of salinity and major contaminated regions within the Bou-
Areg unconfined aquifer. Their results indicated the presence of salini­
zation due to seawater intrusion in different zones of the aquifer, which
is exhibiting an increasing trend in terms of depth and distance from the
coastline. Papatheodorou et al. (Papatheodorou et al., 2007) considered
various multivariate tools to assess the spatio-temporal evolution of the
Malia coastal aquifer, located on the island of Crete in Greece. They
applied factor and discriminant analyses to three separate sets of sam­
ples collected during different sampling periods. Their results suggested
the presence of two dominant hydrochemical processes, namely
seawater intrusion and nitrate pollution, whereas trend surface analysis
showed the strong influence of flow movement on the spatial distribu­
tion of nitrate. Zaidi et al. (Zaidi et al., 2015) considered principal
component analysis to clarify the impact of anthropogenic and natural
activities on the evolution of a multi-layer groundwater system located
in a region dominated by agricultural activities in Saudi Arabia. High
concentrations of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) and salinity were asso­
ciated with rock-water interactions and evaporation, whereas high
values of phosphorus and nitrate were attributed to anthropogenic fac­
tors, particularly the usage of inorganic fertilizers in agricultural
activities.
The significant role of both anthropogenic and natural activities on
groundwater quality has also been pointed out by Raju et al. (Raju et al.,
2015). The authors used factor analysis to analyze a large number of
parameters in central Nepal. Mallick et al. (Mallick et al., 2018) com­
bined principal component analysis with correlation analysis and
descriptive statistics to evaluate the quality of a groundwater system
located in the Aseer region (Saudi Arabia). PCA identified the major
mechanisms that control groundwater chemistry, whereas PHREEQC
software was combined with inverse geochemical modeling for esti­
mating aqueous mineral phases and saturation index. The results sug­
gested the adaptation of existing water policies due to high
concentrations of salinity and alkalinity indicators in the area. Telahigue
et al. (Telahigue et al., 2018) used multivariate techniques to evaluate
the spatial extent of aquifer salinization in a coastal area located in Jerba
Island in Tunisia. As before, PCA was adapted to identify the major
components that explain the variability of the groundwater system.
Their analyses identified high salinity risks along the coastal zone,
whereas high levels of mineralization were found in several parts of the
study area that were attributed to the combined action of seawater
intrusion and water–rock interaction.
Overall, Factor Analysis (FA) and Principal Component Analysis
(PCA) are found to be the most commonly used multivariate techniques
(Fig. 2).
3.2. Spatial interpolation and kriging
Hu et al. (Hu et al., 2005) used Ordinary Kriging (OK) to estimate and
map the spatial distribution of electric conductivity, groundwater head
and nitrate concentrations in the North China plain. These maps
revealed the existence of particular regions vulnerable to salinization.
Indicator kriging was used to evaluate the health risks associated with
NΟ3 by providing the likelihood that nitrate concentrations exceed
specific threshold values. Nas (Nas, 2009) conducted a groundwater
quality assessment in Konya (Turkey), whereby OK was used to estimate
the spatial variability of major salinity indicators and nitrate concen­
trations. Adhikary et al. (Adhikary et al., 2011) applied kriging methods
to investigate whether the groundwater quality at the Najafgarh block
(Delhi) is suitable for drinking and/or irrigation purposes. OK was used
to produce spatial distributions of different geochemical parameters.
C.F. Panagiotou et al.
Arslan (Arslan, 2012) analyzed the spatial and seasonal variability of
groundwater salinity at Bafra Plain through the use of OK. In addition,
Indicator Kriging (IK) was applied to construct probability maps of
electrical conductivity to evaluate the salinity risks. Makkawi (Makkawi,
2014) combined OK and IK to construct three-dimensional salinity maps
to identify risk regions in a brackish-saline aquifer. These maps showed
increasing TDS concentrations with depth and towards the northern part
of the study area. The authors also argued that their approach could be
used for choosing suitable pumping wells in terms of groundwater
quality. Bradai et al. (Bradaï et al., 2016) investigated the performance
of OK and IK methods on estimating the spatial distribution of salinity in
terms of variance and area size. IK achieved a better agreement with
field measurements than OK, whereas the former method provided a
more detailed description of the regions of high EC concentrations. Also,
the authors recommended the use of IK for determining zones that are
suitable for irrigation purposes. Seyedmohammadi et al. (Seyedmo­
hammadi et al., 2016) compared various deterministic interpolation
methods (IDW, global polynomial interpolation, local polynomial
interpolation, radial basis functions) to choose the most suitable for
estimating the spatial variation of EC in paddy fields. OK was the
optimal choice for groundwater management, showing increased
salinity and salt ions concentrations in the study area. A similar
conclusion has been reached by Karami et al. (Karami et al., 2018), who
reported the superior performance of OK concerning traditional deter­
ministic methods for mapping purposes. Kurunc et al. (Kurunc et al.,
2016) considered the spatio-temporal evolution of groundwater quality
parameters in the Antalya basin, located in the south part of Anatolia
(Turkey). They observed water quality degradation due to anthropo­
genic and natural processes resulting in increased salinity and nitrate
concentrations. Their results showed high levels of salinity and nitrate
pollution in the study area, mainly attributed to anthropogenic and
natural activities.
Ranjbar and Ehteshami (Ranjbar and Ehteshami, 2019) used the
three-dimensional density-dependent numerical model SEAWAT to
simulate the transport groundwater salinity (via Total Dissolved Solids,
TDS) of a coastal aquifer located in the Talar region. Different popular
variogram models, particularly spherical, Gaussian and exponential,
were considered, whereas a stochastic optimization algorithm, called
genetic algorithm, was used to provide optimal values for the variogram
parameters, namely sill, range and nugget. The resulting variogram
model was used to compile maps of the salinity indicator through OK. It
was found that a combination of the exponential and Gaussian models
achieved the best agreement with the field measurements.
Kriging variants have also been used for the optimal design of
monitoring networks in groundwater systems. Dhar and Datta (Dhar and
Datta, 2009) addressed the difficulty of optimization algorithms to
provide globally optimal solutions based on the notion that linear for­
mulations, such as kriging schemes, can overcome this issue. As a result,
they proposed a monitoring network that combined a decision model
with ordinary kriging as a spatial interpolation scheme. The perfor­
mance of the aforementioned approach was found to be satisfactory,
being able to find an optimal set of monitoring locations for estimating
the spatio-temporal distribution of pollutants. Several reports exist that
incorporate kriging variants to design monitoring networks (Kavusi
et al., 2020; Chao et al., 2011; Yeh et al., 2006) that are used for
groundwater quality assessment.
As expected, ordinary kriging has appeared more than any other
kriging variant during this review, followed by the indicator kriging
(Fig. 2).
3.3. Combination of multivariate techniques and geostatistics
A significant number of recent studies have focused on coupling
multivariate techniques with geostatistics to improve groundwater
resource exploitation strategy (Sánchez-Martos et al., 2001; Babiker
et al., 2006; McLeod et al., 2017; Güler et al., 2012). Particularly,
6
Journal of Hydrology 615 (2022) 128566
popular multivariate methods, such as principal component analysis and
factor analysis, are used to reduce the dimensionality of large datasets,
thus facilitating the identification of patterns among the variables. The
results from these analyses typically pertain to sparse measurement lo­
cations and are then used by geostatistics to compile spatial maps of
factor components and risks originated from anthropogenic and geo­
genic activities.
Shyu et al. (Shyu et al., 2011) combined ordinary kriging with factor
analysis to identify the principal factors influencing groundwater quality
and map their spatial pattern. Shannon’s entropy was used to estimate
the uncertainty of the quality factors that emerged from the collection of
samples in Taiwan over a two-year span. The authors suggested that the
results could facilitate subsequent research on environmental remedia­
tion, pollution prevention, and investigating natural variations and
implementing water management projects. Agoubi et al. (Agoubi et al.,
2012) conducted a multi-disciplinary study to model salinity transport
in a coastal aquifer located in the southeast part of Tunisia. Hierarchical
cluster analysis was used to identify sample locations with similar
hydrochemical characteristics related to major mineralization pro­
cesses. Kriging techniques were used to construct salinity maps that
indicated seawater intrusion to the coastal zone of the aquifer. Masoud
(Masoud, 2014) used a partitioning clustering method, called k-means,
to classify sampling wells. FA was adapted to identify the principal
factors that drive the geochemical processes, whereas OK was used to
compile groundwater quality maps. Similar to the conclusions of Shyu
et al., the authors suggested that the integration of multivariate and
geostatistical tools can help design improved management strategies. A
similar approach to the classification of the sample wells and the char­
acterization of groundwater processes has been proposed by Venka­
tramanan et al. (Venkatramanan et al., 2016). The authors successfully
combined factor analysis, cluster analysis and OK to evaluate the
groundwater quality for an aquifer in Miryang City (South Korea).
Kim et al. (Kim et al., 2012) conducted a multi-disciplinary analysis
to assess groundwater pollution levels and origins at a coastal region in
South Korea. Hierarchical clustering was applied to classify monitoring
wells in three groups, each relating to a pollution process. Factor anal­
ysis identified the sources of pollution, which were associated with three
major factor components. Discriminant analysis was used to identify the
origin of contaminants. As a result, the major geochemical parameters
were associated with the principal factors. Maps of significant contam­
inants and factors were constructed through the use of OK, showing
similar distributions. Abu-alnaeem et al. (Abu-alnaeem et al., 2018)
conducted a similar study to delineate pollution zones and identify
controlling factors of seawater intrusion of the Gaza coastal aquifer,
located in Palestine. As in other studies, the authors highlighted the
effectiveness of combining multivariate and geostatistical tools for
designing groundwater management policies. In another study, Eluma­
lai et al. (Elumalai et al., 2017) used OK and IDW interpolation methods
to construct pollution maps of a groundwater system located in Richards
Bay, South Africa. OK achieved a better agreement with the field mea­
surements than IDW, accurately identifying the three pollution zones.
Factor analysis and principal component analysis were combined to
determine the significant factors. The overall results revealed the pres­
ence of poor groundwater quality in the study area and recommended
the implementation of remediation measures.
Additional studies that involved the combination of factor and
principal component analyses to identify significant factors can be found
in the literature. For example, the analysis of Belkhiri and Narany
(Belkhiri and Narany, 2015) revealed the dominant role of anthropo­
genic activities and water–rock interactions on groundwater quality.
Maps for major geochemical parameters were constructed using OK,
which helped connect the high concentrations of parameters with the
anthropogenic contamination at specific zones of the study area. Egbi
et al. (Egbi et al., 2018) applied the same techniques to conduct a holistic
assessment of groundwater quality of a shallow aquifer located in the
Lower Volta River Basin in Ghana. Their results identified salinity as one
C.F. Panagiotou et al.
of the major hydrochemical processes that affect the conditions of the
groundwater system.
In Narany et al. (Narany et al., 2013), the significance of choosing an
optimal combination of monitoring wells was discussed for assessing the
geochemical conditions of a groundwater system in the Amol-Babol
Plain (Iran). To achieve that purpose, IK was employed for construct­
ing probability maps of exceeding nitrate thresholds based on nitrate
concentration data. These maps suggested zones that are vulnerable to
nitrate pollution. Additional risk maps were obtained using the US-EPA
DRASTIC method, integrated with the probability maps to identify
optimal sampling locations. Belkhiri et al. (Belkhiri et al., 2020) inte­
grated different statistical tools to map the spatial extent of a ground­
water quality index (GWQI), which reflects the impact of several
geochemical variables on groundwater quality. The results suggested a
strong connection between GWQI and major salinity indicators, chosen
as auxiliary variables in co-kriging. Cross-validation revealed the supe­
riority of co-kriging over OK when EC was chosen as the covariate.
Triki et al. (Triki et al., 2013) combined multivariate statistics with
co-kriging to estimate salinity risk in a coastal aquifer located in Sfax
(Tunisia). PCA has been adopted in order to reduce the dimensionality of
the dataset. Three principal components were selected to associate the
quality parameters with seawater intrusion, water–rock interaction and
NO3 . An R-mode hierarchical cluster algorithm was then used to classify
the sampling wells into distinct groups, revealing a strong correlation
among major parameters similar to PCA. Co-kriging was then considered
in order to incorporate information regarding the interaction between
the geochemical parameters. Cross-validation revealed the superior
performance of co-kriging compared to OK for estimating the spatial
pattern of groundwater contaminants, whereas the authors emphasized
the effectiveness of using the proposed approach to revise existing
groundwater management policies. The superiority of ordinary co-
kriging over ordinary kriging has been also reported by Ashrafzadeh
et al. (Ashrafzadeh et al., 2016), who considered the spatio-temporal
variability of electric conductivity and sums of major cations and an­
ions in Guilan province (Iran) over a five-year span. Maps of interpolated
values for these parameters allowed the division of the study area into
zones based on the salinity levels. In addition, probability maps of
exceeding specific salinity thresholds were constructed using indicator
kriging, allowing the identification of regions within the study area of
high salinization risk. Based on their results, the authors suggested that
the resulting maps can guide farmers for better water management.
3.4. Modeling spatial uncertainty
Although kriging and related methods quantify local (per interpo­
lation location) uncertainty regarding the corresponding interpolated
attribute/parameter values, too often practitioners end up using only
these interpolated values for subsequent analyses. Maps of interpolated
parameter values are typically too smooth and do not reflect short-scale
attribute variability. As discussed in the introductory session, geo­
statistical simulation can be used to quantify and propagate uncertainty
regarding the entire spatial distribution of an attribute. This is done by
simulating a set (ensemble) of attribute realizations, each realistically
reflecting the spatial variability and patterns of model parameters; these
realizations are conditioned to state observations (Caers, 2011; Kyr­
iakidis, 2017). Subsequently, these realizations are further elaborated to
model uncertainty in associated model predictions. This subsection
discusses several publications that evaluate the uncertainty in ground­
water model predictions through geostatistical simulation or ensemble-
based methods. Optimization-based methods, such as ensemble Kalman
filter (EnKF), are also considered to evaluate uncertainty in a
computationally-efficient way, along with studies involving the
replacement of complex physical models with machine learning tech­
niques closely related to geostatistics, such as Gaussian process regres­
sion (GPR).
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Journal of Hydrology 615 (2022) 128566
3.4.1. Simulations
In an attempt to revisit the groundwater model in Amchitka island
(Alaska, USA), Hassan et al. (Hassan et al., 2009) performed Markov
Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations to condition samples of model
parameters generated from prior distributions. In contrast to conven­
tional MC approaches, they constructed relations between model and
likelihood parameters to reduce the computational time. Conditioning
on three datasets, including chemistry data, hydraulic head data and
newly collected magnetotelluric (MT) data. significantly reduces the
uncertainty of model inputs, resulting in a much narrower range of
model outputs compared to the unconditioned simulations.
In a recent study, Kreyns et al. (Kreyns et al., 2020) investigated the
influence of geological heterogeneity on the spatial distribution of
salinity in volcanic aquifers. Multiple realizations of the hydraulic
conductivity field were constructed through a Monte-Carlo-based tech­
nique, called Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS), which were used as
input to the SEAWAT numerical model for simulating the spatio-
temporal distribution of the groundwater flow and salt. Their results
revealed the significant impact of aquifer heterogeneity on the evolution
of salinity and submarine groundwater discharge.
Gómez-Hernandez et al. (Gómez-Hernández et al., 2021) used SIS to
construct realizations of three-dimensional geological model of a highly
heterogeneous aquifer located in the south-western part of Spain. The
heterogeneity of geological classes was characterized through indicator
variograms, whereas SIS was used for quantifying the spatial uncertainty
of the geological features. The resulting realizations were then imported
in MODFLOW to evaluate the evolution of the piezometric levels.
Compared to homogeneous models, the predictions of the proposed
approach exhibited major discrepancies at specific regions, highlighting
the significant influence of the geological model on the spatial vari­
ability of the piezometric levels. Furthermore, the authors emphasized
the positive impact that an improved geological model can have on
improving management policies in terms of marine water intrusion and
groundwater exploitation.
In an attempt to model uncertainty regarding aquifer geology,
Jorreto-Zaguirre et al. (Jorreto-Zaguirre et al., 2020) modelled the un­
certainty of the geology of a coastal aquifer by proposing an extension of
the sequential indicator simulation. That was done by including uncer­
tainty information about hydrofacies proportions, leading to improved
uncertainty quantification of the porous media. The simulations
revealed the strong connection between the variogram model and the
connectivity of the hydrofacies, which determines the spatial extent of
the seawater penetration. The authors suggested that this approach can
set up optimal flow simulation models in terms of groundwater
management.
In order to evaluate groundwater quality in the Birjand plain (Iran),
Aryafar et al. (Aryafar et al., 2020) used geostatistical methods to esti­
mate the spatial distribution of thirteen geochemical parameters. Var­
iogram models were constructed and validated based on jack-knife and
cross-validation techniques. OK was used for estimating the spatial
distribution of these variables. Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS)
was also considered to mitigate the smoothing effects produced by the
kriging method, achieving a better agreement with the actual dataset.
The authors suggested that the resulting maps can be used for designing
optimal sampling strategies.
Jalali et al. (Jalali et al., 2019) combined geostatistical and multi­
variate methods to characterize the groundwater state in Saveh aquifer,
Turkey. Principal component analysis and factor analysis were used to
relate major quality parameters with groundwater processes. SGS was
used to construct simulated parameter realizations to avoid the
smoothing issues of OK, leading to the identification of highly contam­
inated regions and the classification of the aquifer in three risk groups (i.
e. low, moderate and high) through the use of the fractal theory.
A similar study was conducted by Karami et al. (Karami et al., 2020),
highlighting the advantages of using geostatistical simulations instead of
kriging to design optimal strategies for sustainable groundwater
C.F. Panagiotou et al.
management. In their study, they investigated groundwater quality
conditions in Tehran-Karaj plain aquifer, Iran. Their results exhibited
the ability of SGS to accurately delineate pollution zones, thus allowing
decision-makers to focus on limited areas for further sampling and
analysis.
Another way that geostatistical methods can be used for estimating
the spatial extent of salinity has been discussed by Hermans et al.
(Hermans et al., 2012). More specific, the authors employed electrical
resistivity to delineate TDS for the purpose of monitoring seawater
intrusion. They proposed the inclusion of a covariance matrix based on
variograms of electric conductivity to solve the Electric Resistivity To­
mography (ERT) inverse problem. In particular, borehole measurements
were used to construct a vertical variogram of the electrical conduc­
tivity. The variogram was used to construct a covariance matrix for
regularizing the inversion model. Kriging and SGS were also employed
as model comparison references. The generated saltwater plume model
compared well with field data, leading to a reduction of the spatial
uncertainty of the saltwater plume according to three dimensional TDS
profiles.
3.4.2. Computationally efficient methods
3.4.2.1. Latin Hypercube as a sampling strategy. Monte Carlo imple­
mentations are computationally expensive due to the large number of
simulations required for conducting the uncertainty propagation at an
acceptable level of accuracy. One way to reduce the computational
complexity is by reducing the number of simulations through sampling
strategies without deteriorating the accuracy of the predictions (Rajabi
and Ataie-Ashtiani, 2014).
An example of these strategies is Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS), a
stratified Monte-Carlo method that generates realizations of random
attributes that cover the range of given probability distributions (Har­
dyanto and Merkel, 2007; Liodakis et al., 2015; Liodakis et al., 2017).
Latin hypercube simulation does not require any Gaussian assumption; it
simply generates simulations within quantile-demarkated intervals of a
given distribution, no matter its functional form, parametric or non-
parametric (Dong and Nakayama, 2017). Only few publications
related to groundwater salinization have been found that use LHS to
generate samples of model inputs, such as pumping rates (Kopsiaftis
et al. (Kopsiaftis et al., 2019), hydraulic conductivity and recharge rates
(Karamouz et al. (Karamouz et al., 2020). Compared to standard Monte-
Carlo simulations, it was found that LHS can significantly improve
sampling efficiently. Several variants of this sampling algorithm have
been proposed meant to improve space-filling, optimize projective
properties, minimize least square error and maximize entropy, and
reduce spurious correlations (Shields and Zhang, 2016). To the best of
the authors knowledge, none of these strategies has been used in
groundwater salinization applications within the time frame
(2005–2021) of this review.
3.4.2.2. Ensemble Kalman filtering. The process of model calibration
involves the use of all observations simultaneously, whereas sequential
approaches repeatedly recalibrate the model using a subset of the data in
a given step. For transient parameters, such as groundwater recharge,
sequential methods are the methods of choice. A particularly popular
sequential method in groundwater modeling is Ensemble Kalman filter
(EnKF; Chen and Zhang, 2006; Erdal and Cirpka, 2017). It is essentially a
Monte Carlo approach, using an ensemble of model realizations to
evaluate necessary statistics. Unlike Kalman filter, EnKF is suitable for
handling nonlinearities and large dimensions and is easy to implement.
It has the particular advantage that it can be used in conjunction with
any model relating model inputs to observations, without the necessity
to compute the Jacobian of that relationship. A limitation of this
approach is the assumption that all probability distributions involved
are Gaussian.
8
Journal of Hydrology 615 (2022) 128566
Data assimilation methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter,
provide an alternative way for generating conditional realizations of
aquifer parameters in a computationally efficient manner. An illustra­
tive example is reported by Franssen and Kinzelbach (Franssen and
Kinzelbach, 2009), who applied EnKF to a synthetic case study. Even
though their predictions were similar to those obtained by modelling
techniques like the sequential self-calibration method (Gómez-Hernán­
dez et al., 1997), they reduced the computational time by almost two
orders of magnitude. This efficiency is partly attributed to the explicit
computation of the covariance matrix from the model outputs for each
realization and the incorporation of observations without storing model
outputs from previous time steps. This method has gained attention by
the hydrogeological community for conditioning hydrogeological pa­
rameters to concentration (Schöniger et al., 2012; Crestani et al., 2013)
and groundwater head (Chen and Zhang, 2006; Zhou et al., 2011). Until
now, only a few studies involved real-world field experiments, whereas
the majority of these studies involved synthetic test cases (Crestani et al.,
2013; Zovi et al., 2017). The work conducted by Bouzaglou et al.
(Bouzaglou et al., 2018), was the only one that applied this method to
address salinity issues in groundwater systems, particularly due to
seawater intrusion. They integrated EnKF with a three-dimensional
groundwater model called SUTRA for simulating the salinity evolution
in a real experiment. Electrical resistivity tomography data (electrical
resistances) are assimilated to update soil parameters and salt concen­
tration. The results suggested that EnKF is a promising data assimilation
tool for reducing the uncertainty on model inputs/outputs for various
groundwater-related problems, including salinization.
3.4.2.3. Gaussian process regression (GPR) as a surrogate model. As
mentioned in Section 2.3, surrogate models can facilitate uncertainty
analysis by reducing the number of unknowns and improving numerical
robustness. It is a common approach to use GPR-based surrogate models
in engineering optimization applications. These models involve empir­
ical approximations of complex model outputs calibrated on a set of
inputs and outputs of the complex model. A major advantage of this
category of models compared to deterministic ones, is that it predicts a
distribution (described by mean and standard deviation) rather than just
a point estimate. The standard deviation of a distribution is referred in
literature as epistemic uncertainty, i.e., how certain the model is with
respect to its prediction. Another source of uncertainty can be observed
with regard to the lack of complete control over all influential param­
eters. These deviations occurring during repeated process iterations
under the same conditions are referred to as aleatoric uncertainty. As
expected, a major limitation of this method is the requirement of the
probability distributions to satisfy a Gaussian assumption.
Few studies have been identified that applied these models in
problems relevant to groundwater salinity (Werner et al., 2013; Asher
et al., 2015). According to Rajabi and Ketabchi (Rajabi and Ketabchi,
2017), GPR-based surrogate models are suitable for evaluating, in a
computationally efficient manner, the epistemic and aleatory uncer­
tainty that is present in SWI models. The proposed emulator was chosen
instead of the SUTRA transport model within a simulation–optimization
scheme to assess the SWI extent of a coastal aquifer in the Persian Gulf.
The results demonstrated the ability of this meta-model to provide reli­
able predictions while achieving a significant reduction in computa­
tional time. Kopsiaftis et al. (Kopsiaftis et al., 2019) compared the
performance of GPR-based meta-models with three commonly used
regression models, specifically Support Vector Machine and regression
trees, to predict the spatial extent of seawater intrusion. The proposed
model was trained based on a large number of variable density com­
putations, whereas LHS was adopted to generate representative pump­
ing rates. The hyperparameters of all surrogate models were optimized
through a Bayesian procedure. Although GPR needs more computational
time than the other models, the results showed that it achieved the
highest performance according to different quantitative indicators.
C.F. Panagiotou et al.
Roy and Datta (Roy and Datta, 2018) aimed at designing optimized
policies to prevent saltwater intrusion by investigating the influence of
climatic conditions at sea. Three surrogate models, specifically GPR,
Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Multivariate adap­
tive regression spline (MARS), were trained based on numerical com­
putations of a density-dependent transport model. The performance of
these models was evaluated at a multi-layer coastal aquifer. All models
managed to capture the trends of the salinization processes, whereas
ANFIS-based emulator provided the most accurate predictions, along
with the highest computational efficiency. Accordingly, the best meta-
model replaced the transport model within the simulation–optimization-
based (S/O) SWI management framework, showing promising results. A
similar study has been reported by the same authors (Roy and Datta,
2018), who compared the performance of RT, MA, and GPR-based sur­
rogate models in predicting model parameters. GPR achieved the
highest scores, and it was then integrated within an optimization algo­
rithm in terms of SWI management. The results supported the argument
that GPR is suitable for replacing complex physical models within an
optimization framework.
4. Conclusions and further directions
From this review article it can be inferred that several geostatistical
methods have not yet been considered to address groundwater salini­
zation problems. For example, very few applications of co-kriging exist,
despite its advantages compared to other kriging variants. It worth
mentioning that few publications have considered jointly simulating the
spatial distribution of multiple attributes/parameters by transforming
them to log-ratios and then to Principal Components, thus avoiding co-
simulation based on co-kriging for which inference of a jointly permis­
sible set of auto- and cross-variogram models can be challenging
(Madani and Carranza, 2020; Sharifi et al., 2019). No recent studies
were identified that employ Principal Component simulation to
groundwater salinization problems. Fuzzy kriging is another method
that has not been favoured yet by practitioners. This method can handle
the epistemic uncertainty of contaminants that is present due to
imprecise or/and incomplete sample data. Fuzzy kriging has been used
for the construction of optimized groundwater quality monitoring net­
works (Dhar and Patil, 2011). An alternative interpolation method has
been developed by Bardossy (Bárdossy, 2006; Bárdossy and Li, 2008),
who borrowed the idea of copulas to characterize spatial dependence in
groundwater quality parameters instead of covariance functions and
variograms. As expected, it has been shown that non-Gaussian copulas
can provide more accurate predictions than traditional kriging methods
for several groundwater quality parameters, whereas no comparison
between copulas and non-linear geostatistics, such as disjunctive krig­
ing, was reported. It worth mentioning that no recent articles were
found that employ disjunctive kriging to groundwater salinization
problems, revealing a gap that can be potentially addressed in future
studies.
Regarding geostatistical simulations, transition probability geo­
statistics is reported as an efficient method for constructing conditional
realizations of the geological patterns that has not yet been applied to
address groundwater salinization problems (He et al., 2014; dell’Arci­
prete et al., 2011; Sivakumar et al., 2005). For example, Lee et al. (Lee
et al., 2007) reported that indicator simulation based on TP could better
capture the lateral connectivity of channel facies than SGS, which led to
improved predictions of groundwater head responses during pumping.
Optimized extensions of LHS have been shown to generate repre­
sentative realizations of model parameters with high sampling effi­
ciency, allowing the reduction of the computational time of Monte Carlo
simulations. These LHS variants have not yet received significant
attention in real-world GW applications.
Multi-dimensional Scaling (MDS) is another powerful tool for visu­
alizing the uncertainty of very-high dimensional spatial models/re­
alizations by computing an appropriate distance between pairs of
9
Journal of Hydrology 615 (2022) 128566
attribute realizations within an ensemble of such realizations, which are
then projected into a lower dimensional space. MDS has not been
applied yet in groundwater salinization problems to the best of the au­
thors’ knowledge.
Based on the above literature review, the following conclusions/
recommendations can be identified in terms of most used methods,
future directions, and main challenges remaining to be addressed.
According to Fig. 2, ordinary kriging under a Gaussian assumption is
by far the most widely used interpolation method for the spatial inter­
polation of salinity parameters, whereas PCA and CA multivariate
techniques are extensively used to identify potential groundwater
salinity sources. SIS is favoured by practitioners, followed by SGS, for
capturing short-scale attribute variability, leading to more realistic
spatial distribution mapping than kriging, whereas Ensemble Kalman
Filter (EnKF) is found to be the most popular data assimilation method.
In terms of future directions, further integration of data and models
is needed for improving the accuracy of the estimations, whereas more
realistic spatial prediction methods, such as simulation, are recom­
mended to avoid smoothing effects of interpolation (kriging) and for
performing uncertainty propagation. Efficient sampling strategies, such
as optimized extensions of LHS, are expected further to reduce the
computational cost generating a large number of stochastic simulations
which are then processed by groundwater models for uncertainty anal­
ysis/propagation purposes. Further improvements in computational
complexity and stability can be achieved using machine learning
methods, such as GPR-based surrogate models. Generative adversarial
network (GAN) is an example of a deep machine learning algorithm that
is recently used for modelling reservoir facies (Dupont et al., 2018; Laloy
et al., 2018). This algorithm is widely used for generating images of
systems that exhibit similarities to facies models. Comparisons with
conventional geostatistical methods (Zhang et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2021)
show the superior performance of GANs in terms of learning and map­
ping the complex geological structures. GANs fall under the realm of
multiple-point geostatistics (Mariethoz and Caers, 2014; Tahmasebi,
2018) which is an active area of research.
Based on the above, reducing computational cost is expected to
remain a significant challenge for scientists to consider, particularly
when physically-based models are involved, along with the integration
of machine-learning approaches beyond a black-box treatment. For
these challenges to be successfully addressed, a close and continuous
collaboration between hydrogeologists, geochemists, geo-statisticians,
computer and data scientists, and policy/decision-makers is required.
Concluding, this review demonstrates the direct relevance of geo­
statistics to groundwater salinization problems, both in terms of anal­
ysis/mapping of geochemical and other relevant variables and in terms
of simulation of hydraulic conductivity and other input parameters to
physically-based models of groundwater quality assessment. Based on
the review studies, some recommendations can be made on the future
role of geostatistics in this area. Firstly, further application of geo­
statistics is envisioned towards the characterization and managements
of aquifers facing salinization problems due to the stochastic nature of
these groundwater systems. Due to the complexity of the subsurface
systems and the high-dimensionality of the associated datasets, inno­
vative integration of geostatistics and machine learning methods is ex­
pected to provide improved understanding and modeling of
groundwater salinization processes. Lastly, the application of modern
geostatistical simulation algorithms, accounting for diverse information
sources, might improve mapping the spatial and/or spatiotemporal
distribution of geochemical data related to salinization.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Constantinos F. Panagiotou: Conceptualization, Investigation,
Methodology, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing.
Phaedon Kyriakidis: Conceptualization, Methodology, Supervision,
Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing. Evangelos Tziritis:
C.F. Panagiotou et al. Journal of Hydrology 615 (2022) 128566

Conceptualization, Writing – review & editing. groundwater quality. Water Resour. Manage. 29, 2073–2089. https://doi.org/
10.1007/s11269-015-0929-7.
Belkhiri, L., Tiri, A., Mouni, L., 2020. Spatial distribution of the groundwater quality
using kriging and co-kriging interpolations. Groundw. Sustain. Dev. 11, 100473
Declaration of Competing Interest https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2020.100473.
Blouin, M., Martel, R., Gloaguen, E., 2012. Accounting for aquifer heterogeneity from
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial geological data to management tools. Ground Water 51 (3), 421–431. https://doi.
org/10.1111/j.1745-6584.2012.00982.x.
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